From The Regionalization of Hydrometric Information To The Design of Artificial Reservoirs and Uncertainty Analysis The Portuguese Case Study

FROM THE REGIONALIZATION OF HYDROMETRIC
INFORMATION TO THE DESIGN OF ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIRS

AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
THE PORTUGUESE CASE STUDY
Maria Manuela Portela
2023.03.15
1
CONTENTS
From the regionalization of hydrometric information to the design of

artificial reservoirs and uncertainty analyses
2
FROM THE REGIONALIZATION OF HYDROMETRIC INFORMATION TO THE DESIGN OF ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIRS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYZE
Contents
1. Scope and justification
2. Fundamental steps for establishing a regional model for streamflow

estimation
3. The mean annual flow depth, H, as a streamflow regionalization

parameter
- Dependence between the mean annual flow depth, H, and the relative temporal
variability of the streamflows
- The streamflow regionalization model
4. The mean annual flow depth, H, as a parameter for designing storage

capacities of artificial reservoirs
- Basic concepts
- A deterministic approach to reservoir design
- A probabilistic approach to reservoir design, based on synthetic streamflow series
5. Final note: perspectives

2023.03.15 3
FROM THE REGIONALIZATION OF HYDROMETRIC INFORMATION TO THE DESIGN OF ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIRS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYZE
Contents
2. Fundamental steps for establishing a regional model for streamflow

estimation
3. The mean annual flow depth, H, as a streamflow regionalization

parameter
- Dependence between the mean annual flow depth, H, and the relative temporal
Support
variability by a written text in Portuguese
of the streamflows
- The streamflow regionalization model
4. The mean annual flow depth as a parameter for designing storage

capacities of artificial reservoirs
- Basic concepts
- A deterministic approach to reservoir design
- A probabilistic approach to reservoir design, based on synthetic streamflow series

2023.03.15 4
1. SCOPE AND JUSTIFICATION

5
FROM THE REGIONALIZATION OF HYDROMETRIC INFORMATION TO THE DESIGN OF ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIRS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYZES
 In most regions of the globe, the characterization of water resources, in

general, and the river flow estimation, in particular, often face scarcity or
even lack of hydrometric data, both in time (series with insufficient length or with
many gaps), and space (ungauged river basins).
Number of river gauge stations

40
35
30 From the river gauge stations owned by the Portuguese
25 Environmental Agency, only a few are operational, most
of them with very short record lengths
20
15
10
5
0
[0-5] ]10-15] ]20-25] ]30-35] ]40-45] ]50-55] ]60-65] ]70-75]
Number of years (continuous or not) with complete records of mean daily flows
2023.03.15 6
Examples of problems requiring streamflow estimates aiming at the

integrated water resources management (adapted from Bloschl et al., 2013)
How much water

do we have? (i) Water resources (quantity and quality) planning and management;
When is such water (ii) water supply and energy production;
available? (iii) sediment, nutrient and pollutant transport and dilution;
(iv) ecosystem assessment and environmental flows;
For how long will
(v) drought/flood characterization and management;
we have water?
(vi) river restoration;
How dry can be (vii) design of hydraulic infrastructures and operation of artificial reservoirs;
the period?
viii) risk assessment and management;
How big can be ....
the flood?
Recently the International Association of Hydrological Science, IAHS,

promoted a decade to raise awareness and capacity building regarding
Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)
2023.03.15 7
Calibration Understanding
Gauged PUB (IAHS) initiative Ungauged

basins basins
Decade on predictions in ungauged basins, PUB, IAHS:

progressive replacement of the existing hydrologic models,
mostly conceived for gauged watersheds, by improving them
towards an increased understanding of the hydrological
processes and their regional features
2023.03.15 8
Research aiming to develop a regionalization model to estimate

river flows at ungauged Portuguese watersheds
(i) Identification of the regionalization

parameter; (ii) analysis
of its capacity to describe the temporal and spatial variability
and to address the uncertainty of the river flow regime; (iii)
application example to the preliminary design of artificial
reservoirs
(Research eventually applicable to some of the southern Europe countries, like those around the
Mediterranean sea, with weather conditions similar to the Portuguese ones)
2023.03.15 9
Streamflow modelling 1. Scope and justification
Precipitation
Streamflow at the
Evaporation watershed outlet
Evaporation
Intercepção
Intakes and diversions
Depression Surface
Overland flow Channel flow
storage runoff
Evaporation
Infiltration from Storage in artificial reservoirs

Infiltration
the channel
Storage in the Water supply

Interflow
vegetation root zone
Evapotranspiration
Percolation Channel flow from the groundwater
Água from other Ground water Groundwater Groundwater Groundwater living the
watersheds contribution storage flow watershed
Water comming Water living Water storage Water in movement

into the system the system inside the system inside the system
2023.03.15 10
Streamflow modelling 1. Scope and justification
Precipitation
Streamflow at the
Evaporation
Intercepção
Depression Surface
Overland flow Channel flow
storage runoff
Evaporation
Infiltration from Storage in artificial reservoirs

Infiltration
the channel
Storage in the Water supply

Interflow
Evapotranspiration
Percolation Channel flow from the groundwater

into the system the system inside the system inside the system
2023.03.15 11
Precipitation
Streamflow at the
Evaporation
Intercepção
Depression Surface Channel flow
Overland flow
storage runoff
Evaporation (… as model complexity increases, its
Infiltration
Infiltration from
the channel
Storage in artificial reservoirs
results may become more inaccurate if the
Evapotranspiration
Storage in the
Interflow
Water supply
available data is insufficient to estimate and
Percolation Channel flow from the groundwater validate the parameters of the model…)

into the system the system inside the system inside the system 12
Principles of model development (Hillel, 1987, in Silva, 1996)
PARSIMONY . Asmallest
model should not be more complex than the required and should include the
possible number of parameters with values computed from the data
MODESTY . A model should not intend to do "too much"; therei s not such thing as "the model"
PRECISION . Athemodel should not intend to describe the phenomena with precision higher than
capacity to measure them
VERIFIABILITY . A model must be verifiable and it is always necessary to know its limits of validity
2023.03.15 12
(river flow estimation)
Regionalization: model to transfer flow data from one watershed with

such data to another watershed with scarce or unavailable data.
 Streamflow estimation based on regional models has been used worldwide
(Razavi & Coulibaly, 2013: about 70 research works developed between 1990 and 2011, for several world regions and for
basins with very different areas and climate and topographic constraints).
 … classification (Razavi & Coulibaly, 2013) … hydrologic model-dependent and

hydrologic model-independent (whether or not hydrologic models are used in the ungauged
watersheds to which the regionalization models were developed)
HYDROLOGIC MODEL- HYDROLOGIC MODEL-

-DEPENDENT -INDEPENDENT
Parameter
What should be
3 – Scaling relationships
the scaling
factor???
2023.03.15 13
2. Fundamental steps for establishing a regional model for river flow
estimation

14
2. Steps for establishing a regional model
 The simplest conceptual form:
estimates of the parameters of the regional model

applicable to the ungauged watershed;
F functional relationship between a set of parameters relative
to river basins, θ i, and physiographic and/or
meteorological attributes of those basins, Φ i ;
υ error.
2023.03.15 15
Establishing a regionalization model (adapted from Wagener & Wheater, 2006)
2023.03.15 16
Establishing a regionalization model: Q =αAβ

Gauged
A1, Q1
watershed 1
θ1=[α
α1; β 1]
A2,Q2
Structure of Gauged
the local θ 2=[α
α2; β 2] watershed 2 Ungauged
model watershed
Q =αAβ Ai, Qi ...
θi=[α
αi; β i]
Gauged
watershed i
(area, A, and discharge, Q) (area, A)
2023.03.15 17
2023.03.15 18
2023.03.15 19
3. THE MEAN ANNUAL FLOW DEPTH, H, AS A RIVER DISCHARGE
REGIONALIZATION PARAMETER
3.1.Dependence between the mean annual flow depth, H, and the relative temporal
variability of the river discharges
3.2 The regionalization model

20
3.1. Dependence between H and the relative temporal variability of the streamflows
The fact:
The mean annual flow at a section of a river in
mainland Portugal, when expressed as depth of
water over the watershed, H, provides
information about the temporal variability of
the flow as H decreases (that is, the drier
Oceano Atlântico
the watershed is) the relative temporal variability
of the flow increases, both over-year and
within-the-year.
Espanha
(Mapa de H)
(H Map)
2023.03.15 21
The fact:
Oceano Atlântico
within-the-year.
Espanha
Discharge versus time
(Mapa de H)
V =  Q dt V (H Map)
H=
A
Area A 2023.03.15 22
The fact:
within-the-year.
 Starting from a simple study dating from 1967,

the “fact” was “revisited” and enhanced at
different time scales, firstly, with data from 24
river gauge stations (Portela & Quintela, 2000a,b) e
afterwards from 54 (Portela & Quintela, 2005, 2006a,b)
stations reasonably spread across the country.
2023.03.15 23
* Main electricity Estação hidrométrica Área da bacia

hidrográfica Período de registos
Amostra de escoamentos anuais
Código Designação Bacia hidrográfica/ Média, H Desvio-padrão
producer in Portugal /curso de água (km2)
(número de anos)
(mm) (mm)
06O/03 Qta.das Laranjeiras Douro/Sabor 3464 1961/62 a 1981/82 (21) 298 233
10P/01 Castelo Bom Douro/Côa 897 1960/61 a 1995/96 (36) 332 205
Oceano Atlântico
05M/01 Murça Douro/Tinhela 265 1974/75 a 1996/97 (23) 341 235

08O/02 Cidadelhe Douro/Côa 1685 1956/57 a 1973/74 (18) 360 177
06M/01 Castanheiro Douro/Tua 3718 1958/59 a 1995/96 (38) 366 216
03N/01 Rebordelo Douro/Rabaçal 857 1955/56 a 1995/96 (41) 582 322
08L/01 Quinta do Rape Douro/Távora 170 1976/77 a 1987/88 (12) 601 316
03K/01 Vale Giestoso Douro/Beça 77 1957/58 a 1996/97 (40) 717 398
10M/03
08J/01
Videmonte
Castro Daire
EDP*
Mondego/Mondego
Douro/Pavia
121
291
1975/76 a 1996/97 (22)
1945/46 a 1987/88 (43)
736
738
388
362
03P/01
07I/04
Vinhais-Qt. Ranca
Cabriz 19 stations active; 31 years
Douro/Tuela
Douro/Ribª S. Paio
455
17
156/57 a 1995/96 (40)
1966/67 a 1987/88 (22)
784
808
354
353
Espanha
04J/04 Cunhas Douro/Beça 338 1949/50 a 1995/96 (47) 860 362

Espanha
11M/01 Pai Diz Mondego/Mondego 50 1973/74 a 1994/95 (22) 876 377

06K/01 Ermida-Corgo Douro/Corgo 291 1956/57 a 2001/02 (46) 908 436
05K/01 S.Marta do Alvão Douro/Louredo 52 1955/56 a 1987/88 (33) 986 394
08H/02 Fragas da Torre Douro/Pavia 660 1946/47 a 1995/96 (50) 997 470
11L/01 Manteigas Tejo/Zêzere 28 1978/79 a 1995/96 (18) 1898 724
03H/04 Covas Cávado/Homem 116 1955/56 a 1973/74 (19) 2212 936
EstaçãoEstação
hidrométrica
hidrométrica Área da bacia
Período de registos
Amostra de escoamentos anuais 26J/01 Albernoa Guadiana/Terges 177 1970/71 a 1989/90 (20) 105 111
Código Designação Bacia hidrográfica/
Bacia hidrográfica/ hidrográfica Média, H Desvio-padrão
/curso de/curso
água de água (km2 )
(número de anos) 27I/01 Entradas Guadiana/Terges 52 1971/72 a 1989/90 (19) 124 121
(mm) (mm)
26J/01 Albernoa Guadiana/Terges
Guadiana/Terges 177 1970/71 a 1989/90 (20) 105 111 27J/01 Monte da Ponte Guadiana/Cobres 707 1959/60 a 1989/90 (31) 137 124
27I/01 Entradas Guadiana/Terges
Guadiana/Terges 52 1971/72 a 1989/90 (19) 124 121
24H/01 S. Domingos Sado/Ribª Sado/Ribª
Algalé Algalé 59 1934/35 a 1958/59 (25) 131 96 24H/03 Torrão do Alentejo Sado/Xarrama 465 1961/62 a 1989/90 (29) 148 121
27J/01 Monte da PonteGuadiana/Cobres
Guadiana/Cobres 707 1959/60 a 1989/90 (31) 137 124 18L/01 Couto de Andreiros Tejo/Ribª de Seda 244 1978/79 a 1989/90 (12) 158 144
24H/03 Torrão do Alentejo Sado/Xarrama
Sado/Xarrama 465 1961/62 a 1989/90 (29) 148 121
19D/04 Pte.da Ota Tejo/RibªTejo/Ribª
de Ota de Ota 56 1979/80 a 1989/90 (11) 150 119 19C/02 Pte.Barnabé Tejo/Alenquer 114 1979/80 a 1989/90 (11) 165 130
24L/01 Amieira Guadiana/Degebe
Guadiana/Degebe 1474 1947/48 a 1964/65 (18) 154 139
18L/01 Couto de Andreiros Tejo/Ribª de Seda 244 1978/79 a 1989/90 (12) 158 144 25G/02 Moinho do Bravo Sado/Ribª Corona 218 1977/78 a 1989/90 (13) 175 140
19C/02
25G/02
Pte.Barnabé
Moinho do Bravo
Tejo/Alenquer
Sado/Ribª Corona
114
218
1979/80 a 1989/90 (11)
1977/78 a 1989/90 (13)
165
175
130
140
12E/01 Pte. Azenha Nova Mondego/Ribª de Foja 51 1975/76 a 1986/87 (12) 201 116
24I/01 Odivelas Sado/Ribª de Odivelas 431 1934/35 a 1966/67 (33) 178 135 19M/01 Monforte Tejo/Ribª de Avis 136 1961/62 a 1976/77 (16) 222 178
Other agencies
19M/01 Monforte Tejo/Ribª de Avis 136 1961/62 a 1976/77 (16) 222 178 30F/02 Vidigal Algarve/Ribª do Farelo 19 1938/39 a 1963/64 (26) 227 138
30F/02 Vidigal Algarve/Ribª do Farelo 19 1938/39 a 1963/64 (26) 227 138
31K/03 Bodega Algarve/Ribª de Alportel 132 1975/76 a 1988/89 (14) 235 196
22 active stations; 22 years

ranked by increasing H
29L/01 Monte dos Fortes Guadiana/Ribª Odeleite 288 1968/69 a 1989/90 (22) 251 188
54 river gauge stations
23I/01 Flor da Rosa Sado/Xarrama 278 1934/35 a 1964/65 (31) 258 193
28L/02 Vascão Guadiana/Ribª Vascão 428 1960/61 a 1982/83 (23) 279 216 23I/01 Flor da Rosa Sado/Xarrama 278 1934/35 a 1964/65 (31) 258 193
13E/04 Pte. Casal Rola Mondego/Pranto 138 1975/76 a 1988/89 (14) 325 222
28L/02 Vascão Guadiana/Ribª Vascão 428 1960/61 a 1982/83 (23) 279 216
30G/01 Monte dos Pachecos Algarve/Ribª de Odelouca 386 1962/63 a 1982/83 (21) 330 295 13E/04 Pte. Casal Rola Mondego/Pranto 138 1975/76 a 1988/89 (14) 325 222
05M/01 Murça Douro/Tinhela 265 1974/75 a 1996/97 (23) 341 235 13F/02 Pte. Casével Mondego/Ega 146 1977/78 a 1989/90 (13) 362 196
18E/01 Pte.Freiria Tejo/Maior 184 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 343 239
21C/01 Pte.Pinhal Tejo/Ribª de Loures 79 1977/78 a 1988/89 (12) 376 268
13F/02 Pte. Casével Mondego/Ega 146 1977/78 a 1989/90 (13) 362 196 10K/01 Pte. Sta Clara-Dão Mondego/Dão 177 1921/22 a 1972/73 (52) 454 312
21C/01 Pte.Pinhal Tejo/Ribª de Loures 79 1977/78 a 1988/89 (12) 376 268 10J/01 Caldas S. Gemil Mondego/Dão 617 1956/57 a 1989/90 (34) 480 272
11I/06 Pte. Tábua Mondego/Mondego 1550 1937/38 a 1978/79 (42) 421 217
10K/01 Pte. Sta Clara-Dão Mondego/Dão 177 1921/22 a 1972/73 (52) 454 312
10L/01 Pte. Juncais Mondego/Mondego 606 1918/19 a 1966/67 (49) 504 302
10J/01 Caldas S. Gemil Mondego/Dão 617 1956/57 a 1989/90 (34) 480 272 10G/02 Pte. Águeda Vouga/Águeda 405 1934/35 a 1953/54 (20) 674 369
03N/01 Rebordelo Douro/Rabaçal 857 1955/56 a 1995/96 (41) 582 322 17F/02 Pte.Nova Tejo/Almonda 102 1976/77 a 1985/86 (10) 1122 550
12H/03 Pte. Mucela Mondego/Alva 666 1960/61 a 1989/90 (30) 630 349 24H/01 S. Domingos Sado/Ribª Algalé 59 1934/35 a 1958/59 (25) 131 96
10G/02 Pte. Águeda Vouga/Águeda 405 1934/35 a 1953/54 (20) 674 369
19D/04 Pte.da Ota Tejo/Ribª de Ota 56 1979/80 a 1989/90 (11) 150 119
Other agencies
06I/02 Pte. Canavezes Douro/Tâmega 3135 1955/56 a 1986/87 (32) 709 339
03K/01 Vale Giestoso Douro/Beça 77 1957/58 a 1996/97 (40) 717 398 24L/01 Amieira Guadiana/Degebe 1474 1947/48 a 1964/65 (18) 154 139
10M/03 Videmonte Mondego/Mondego 121 1975/76 a 1996/97 (22) 736 388
08J/01 Castro Daire Douro/Pavia 291 1945/46 a 1987/88 (43) 738 362 24I/01 Odivelas Sado/Ribª de Odivelas 431 1934/35 a 1966/67 (33) 178 135
13 extinct, suspended stations, …; 23 years

03P/01 Vinhais-Qt. Ranca
07I/04 Cabriz
Douro/Tuela
Douro/Ribª S. Paio
455
17
156/57 a 1995/96 (40)
1966/67 a 1987/88 (22)
784
808
354
353
30G/01 Monte dos Pachecos Algarve/Ribª de Odelouca 386 1962/63 a 1982/83 (21) 330 295
04J/04 Cunhas Douro/Beça 338 1949/50 a 1995/96 (47) 860 362 18E/01 Pte.Freiria Tejo/Maior 184 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 343 239
06K/01 Ermida-Corgo Douro/Corgo 291 1956/57 a 2001/02 (46) 908 436 11I/06 Pte. Tábua Mondego/Mondego 1550 1937/38 a 1978/79 (42) 421 217
13H/03 Louçainha Mondego/Simonte 4 1960/61 a 1983/84 (24) 959 367
09H/01 Pedre Ribeiradio Vouga/Vouga 928 1962/63 a 1979/80 (18) 972 508
12H/03 Pte. Mucela Mondego/Alva 666 1960/61 a 1989/90 (30) 630 349
05K/01 S.Marta do Alvão Douro/Louredo 52 1955/56 a 1987/88 (33) 986 394 06I/02 Pte. Canavezes Douro/Tâmega 3135 1955/56 a 1986/87 (32) 709 339
09F/01 Pte. Minhoteira Vouga/Antuã 114 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 1105 462 13H/03 Louçainha Mondego/Simonte 4 1960/61 a 1983/84 (24) 959 367
17F/02 Pte.Nova Tejo/Almonda 102 1976/77 a 1985/86 (10) 1122 550
09G/01 Pte. Vale Maior Vouga/Caima 188 1974/75 a 1988/89 (15) 1183 513
11L/01 Manteigas Tejo/Zêzere 28 1978/79 a 1995/96 (18) 1898 724 09F/01 Pte. Minhoteira Vouga/Antuã 114 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 1105 462
2023.03.15
* Main electricity Estação hidrométrica Área da bacia

hidrográfica Período de registos
Amostra de escoamentos anuais
Código Designação Bacia hidrográfica/ Média, H Desvio-padrão
producer in Portugal /curso de água (km2)
(número de anos)
(mm) (mm)
Oceano Atlântico
05M/01 Murça Douro/Tinhela 265 1974/75 a 1996/97 (23) 341 235

03N/01 Rebordelo Douro/Rabaçal 857 1955/56 a 1995/96 (41) 582 322
03K/01 Vale Giestoso Douro/Beça 77 1957/58 a 1996/97 (40) 717 398
10M/03
08J/01
Videmonte
Castro Daire
EDP*
Mondego/Mondego
Douro/Pavia
121
291
1975/76 a 1996/97 (22)
1945/46 a 1987/88 (43)
736
738
388
362
03P/01
07I/04
Vinhais-Qt. Ranca
Cabriz 19 stations active; 31 years
Douro/Tuela
Douro/Ribª S. Paio
455
17
156/57 a 1995/96 (40)
1966/67 a 1987/88 (22)
784
808
354
353
Espanha
04J/04 Cunhas Douro/Beça 338 1949/50 a 1995/96 (47) 860 362

Espanha

06K/01 Ermida-Corgo Douro/Corgo 291 1956/57 a 2001/02 (46) 908 436
05K/01 S.Marta do Alvão Douro/Louredo 52 1955/56 a 1987/88 (33) 986 394
11L/01 Manteigas Tejo/Zêzere 28 1978/79 a 1995/96 (18) 1898 724
EstaçãoEstação
hidrométrica
hidrométrica Área da bacia
Período de registos
Amostra de escoamentos anuais 26J/01 Albernoa Guadiana/Terges 177 1970/71 a 1989/90 (20) 105 111
Código Designação Bacia hidrográfica/
Bacia hidrográfica/ hidrográfica Média, H Desvio-padrão
/curso de/curso
água de água (km2 )
(número de anos) 27I/01 Entradas Guadiana/Terges 52 1971/72 a 1989/90 (19) 124 121
(mm) (mm)
26J/01 Albernoa Guadiana/Terges
Guadiana/Terges 177 1970/71 a 1989/90 (20) 105 111 27J/01 Monte da Ponte Guadiana/Cobres 707 1959/60 a 1989/90 (31) 137 124
27I/01 Entradas Guadiana/Terges
Guadiana/Terges 52 1971/72 a 1989/90 (19) 124 121
24H/01 S. Domingos Sado/Ribª Sado/Ribª
Algalé Algalé 59 1934/35 a 1958/59 (25) 131 96 24H/03 Torrão do Alentejo Sado/Xarrama 465 1961/62 a 1989/90 (29) 148 121
27J/01 Monte da PonteGuadiana/Cobres
Guadiana/Cobres 707 1959/60 a 1989/90 (31) 137 124 18L/01 Couto de Andreiros Tejo/Ribª de Seda 244 1978/79 a 1989/90 (12) 158 144
24H/03 Torrão do Alentejo Sado/Xarrama
Sado/Xarrama 465 1961/62 a 1989/90 (29) 148 121
19D/04 Pte.da Ota Tejo/RibªTejo/Ribª
de Ota de Ota 56 1979/80 a 1989/90 (11) 150 119 19C/02 Pte.Barnabé Tejo/Alenquer 114 1979/80 a 1989/90 (11) 165 130
24L/01 Amieira Guadiana/Degebe
Guadiana/Degebe 1474 1947/48 a 1964/65 (18) 154 139
18L/01 Couto de Andreiros Tejo/Ribª de Seda 244 1978/79 a 1989/90 (12) 158 144 25G/02 Moinho do Bravo Sado/Ribª Corona 218 1977/78 a 1989/90 (13) 175 140
19C/02
25G/02
Pte.Barnabé
Moinho do Bravo
Tejo/Alenquer
Sado/Ribª Corona
114
218
1979/80 a 1989/90 (11)
1977/78 a 1989/90 (13)
165
175
130
140
24I/01 Odivelas Sado/Ribª de Odivelas 431 1934/35 a 1966/67 (33) 178 135 19M/01 Monforte Tejo/Ribª de Avis 136 1961/62 a 1976/77 (16) 222 178
Other agencies
19M/01 Monforte Tejo/Ribª de Avis 136 1961/62 a 1976/77 (16) 222 178 30F/02 Vidigal Algarve/Ribª do Farelo 19 1938/39 a 1963/64 (26) 227 138
30F/02 Vidigal Algarve/Ribª do Farelo 19 1938/39 a 1963/64 (26) 227 138
22 active stations; 22 years

ranked by increasing H
23I/01 Flor da Rosa Sado/Xarrama 278 1934/35 a 1964/65 (31) 258 193
28L/02 Vascão Guadiana/Ribª Vascão 428 1960/61 a 1982/83 (23) 279 216 23I/01 Flor da Rosa Sado/Xarrama 278 1934/35 a 1964/65 (31) 258 193
13E/04 Pte. Casal Rola Mondego/Pranto 138 1975/76 a 1988/89 (14) 325 222
28L/02 Vascão Guadiana/Ribª Vascão 428 1960/61 a 1982/83 (23) 279 216
30G/01 Monte dos Pachecos Algarve/Ribª de Odelouca 386 1962/63 a 1982/83 (21) 330 295 13E/04 Pte. Casal Rola Mondego/Pranto 138 1975/76 a 1988/89 (14) 325 222
05M/01 Murça Douro/Tinhela 265 1974/75 a 1996/97 (23) 341 235 13F/02 Pte. Casével Mondego/Ega 146 1977/78 a 1989/90 (13) 362 196
18E/01 Pte.Freiria Tejo/Maior 184 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 343 239
21C/01 Pte.Pinhal Tejo/Ribª de Loures 79 1977/78 a 1988/89 (12) 376 268
13F/02 Pte. Casével Mondego/Ega 146 1977/78 a 1989/90 (13) 362 196 10K/01 Pte. Sta Clara-Dão Mondego/Dão 177 1921/22 a 1972/73 (52) 454 312
21C/01 Pte.Pinhal Tejo/Ribª de Loures 79 1977/78 a 1988/89 (12) 376 268 10J/01 Caldas S. Gemil Mondego/Dão 617 1956/57 a 1989/90 (34) 480 272
11I/06 Pte. Tábua Mondego/Mondego 1550 1937/38 a 1978/79 (42) 421 217
10K/01 Pte. Sta Clara-Dão Mondego/Dão 177 1921/22 a 1972/73 (52) 454 312
10J/01 Caldas S. Gemil Mondego/Dão 617 1956/57 a 1989/90 (34) 480 272 10G/02 Pte. Águeda Vouga/Águeda 405 1934/35 a 1953/54 (20) 674 369
03N/01 Rebordelo Douro/Rabaçal 857 1955/56 a 1995/96 (41) 582 322 17F/02 Pte.Nova Tejo/Almonda 102 1976/77 a 1985/86 (10) 1122 550
12H/03 Pte. Mucela Mondego/Alva 666 1960/61 a 1989/90 (30) 630 349 24H/01 S. Domingos Sado/Ribª Algalé 59 1934/35 a 1958/59 (25) 131 96
10G/02 Pte. Águeda Vouga/Águeda 405 1934/35 a 1953/54 (20) 674 369
19D/04 Pte.da Ota Tejo/Ribª de Ota 56 1979/80 a 1989/90 (11) 150 119
Other agencies
06I/02 Pte. Canavezes Douro/Tâmega 3135 1955/56 a 1986/87 (32) 709 339
03K/01 Vale Giestoso Douro/Beça 77 1957/58 a 1996/97 (40) 717 398 24L/01 Amieira Guadiana/Degebe 1474 1947/48 a 1964/65 (18) 154 139
10M/03 Videmonte Mondego/Mondego 121 1975/76 a 1996/97 (22) 736 388
08J/01 Castro Daire Douro/Pavia 291 1945/46 a 1987/88 (43) 738 362 24I/01 Odivelas Sado/Ribª de Odivelas 431 1934/35 a 1966/67 (33) 178 135
03P/01 Vinhais-Qt. Ranca Douro/Tuela 455 156/57 a 1995/96 (40) 784 354
30G/01 Monte dos Pachecos Algarve/Ribª de Odelouca 386 1962/63 a 1982/83 (21) 330 295
13 extinct, suspended stations, …; 23 years
07I/04 Cabriz Douro/Ribª S. Paio 17 1966/67 a 1987/88 (22) 808 353
04J/04 Cunhas Douro/Beça 338 1949/50 a 1995/96 (47) 860 362 18E/01 Pte.Freiria Tejo/Maior 184 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 343 239
06K/01 Ermida-Corgo Douro/Corgo 291 1956/57 a 2001/02 (46) 908 436 11I/06 Pte. Tábua Mondego/Mondego 1550 1937/38 a 1978/79 (42) 421 217
… advantage of having a model able of “extending”

13H/03 Louçainha Mondego/Simonte 4 1960/61 a 1983/84 (24) 959 367
12H/03 Pte. Mucela Mondego/Alva 666 1960/61 a 1989/90 (30) 630 349
05K/01 S.Marta do Alvão Douro/Louredo 52 1955/56 a 1987/88 (33) 986 394 06I/02 Pte. Canavezes Douro/Tâmega 3135 1955/56 a 1986/87 (32) 709 339
the recording periods of the inactive stations.

09F/01 Pte. Minhoteira Vouga/Antuã 114 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 1105 462 13H/03 Louçainha Mondego/Simonte 4 1960/61 a 1983/84 (24) 959 367
17F/02 Pte.Nova Tejo/Almonda 102 1976/77 a 1985/86 (10) 1122 550
11L/01 Manteigas Tejo/Zêzere 28 1978/79 a 1995/96 (18) 1898 724 09F/01 Pte. Minhoteira Vouga/Antuã 114 1976/77 a 1989/90 (14) 1105 462
2023.03.15
-0.237587
Coefficient
-0.099346
of variation, Cv (-)
-0.092698
-0.240215
1.0 24 river gauge stations
-0.222125 -0.354
-0.274621 Cv=4.895 H (r=0.975)
-0.551854 54 river gauge stations
0.8
-0.220716 -0.324
-0.50133
Cv=4.285 H (r=0.900)
0.6
-0.179105
-0.289943
-0.28886
0.4
-0.255644
-0.245215 -0.27
-0.383588
Quintela, 1967: Cv=2.74 H
-0.115171
0.2
-0.483101
-0.37185 0 500 1000 1500 2000
-0.362506 Mean annual flow depth, H (mm)
-0.710286
Cv = ratio between the standard deviation and the average, i.e., dimensionless variation
The relative temporal variability of annual flows increases as

H decreases (correlation coefficients, r, with statistical meaning).
γ
Cv = H
ϕ
2023.03.15 26
-0.237587
Coefficient
-0.099346
-0.092698
-0.240215
-0.222125 -0.354
-0.274621 Cv=4.895 H (r=0.975)
0.8
-0.220716 -0.324
-0.50133
Cv=4.285 H (r=0.900)
0.6
-0.179105
-0.289943
-0.28886
0.4
-0.255644
-0.245215 -0.27
-0.383588
-0.115171
0.2
-0.483101
-0.37185 0 500 1000 1500 2000
Annual streamflow quantiles with different probabilities ofMean annual flow depth, H (mm)
-0.362506
-0.710286
non-exceedance as a function of the mean annual flow depth.

Annual flow with non-exceedance probability of α, Hα (mm)
5000
Based on 54 river gauge stations. Non-exceedance
H99
probability, α:
4000 0.05
0.20
0.2
3000 0.95 H95
0.99
Com base em 24 estações hidrométricas
2000 H20
1000
H5
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Mean annual flow depth, H (mm)
2023.03.15 27
-0.237587
Coefficient
-0.099346
-0.092698
-0.240215
-0.222125 -0.354
Cv=4.895 H (r=0.975)
-0.274621
-0.551854
0.8
-0.220716
At the annual level
-0.324
-0.50133
Cv=4.285 H (r=0.900)
(i) The mean annual flow depth, H, is able of describing the
0.6
-0.179105
-0.289943
relative or dimensionless temporal variability of the annual

-0.28886
0.4
-0.255644
-0.245215 -0.27
-0.383588
-0.115171
0.2
-0.483101
flows expressed by Cv
-0.37185 0 500 1000 1500 2000
-0.362506 Mean annual flow depth, H (mm)
-0.710286(ii) Based on H it is also possible to get estimates of annual flow
quantiles
Annual flow with non-exceedance probability of α, Hα (mm)
5000
Based on 54 river gauge stations. Non-exceedance H99
(iii) Similar
4000 0.05
0.20
conclusions were found as the number of river gauge
probability, α:
0.2
3000 0.95 H95
stations
0.99 with longer time series were analysed
Com base em 24 estações hidrométricas
2000 H20
1000
… Consistency of the identified relationships … H5
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000
2023.03.15 28
Effect of H on mean annual daily flow duration curves – curves that gives for
each daily flow the mean anual number of days with flows equal or higher than the
considered one; when the time axis is expressed not in days but in percentage of
the time, they are nothing but empirical probability distribution curves
Q/Qmod
6
a)  The mean annual flow duration curves
54 stations
5 [1] provide synthetic characterizations of
the daily flow regimes and are used in
4 the design of some of the infrastructures
related to water resources, as small
3 Decreasing H hydropower schemes with run-of-river
exploitation
2
 Qmod – modulus, i.e., mean of all mean
daily flows
1
 Curves made dimensionless by dividing

0 the mean daily discharges by Qmod
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Duração (dias)
2023.03.15 29
Effect of H on mean annual daily flow

duration curves
Q/Qmod
6
a)
54 stations
5 [1]
Decreasing H: as H decreases the curves

3
become more vertical denoting a daily
flow regime more irregular.
2
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Duração (dias)
2023.03.15 30
Q/Qmod
6
Effect of H on mean annual daily flow b) H>400 mm
duration curves 5 26 stations with

H> 400 mm
4
Q/Qmod [2]
6 3 (curves overlapped very
a) regular dimensionless daily
54 stations 2 flow regime among the
5 [1] different river gauge stations)
1
4 0 Q/Qmod
0 50 100
6 150 200 250 300 350
Duração (dia) 28 stations with
c) H<400 mm
3 5
H< 400 mm [3]
4 (flows regimes with
2 different non-
3 dimensional patterns
1 along the year, i.e.,
2 irregular daily flow
regimes)
0 1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0

Duração (dias) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Duração (dia)
2023.03.15 31
 Characterization (… quantitative …) of the relative time variability of monthly

and daily streamflows based on the dimensionless mean quadratic
deviation of monthly and daily flow depths:
DQMi dimensionless mean quadratic deviation of monthly and daily flow depths
in year i at a given stream gauging station – ONE VALUE PER YEAR
i year
j month or day, at the monthly and daily levels, respectively
λ equal to 12 or 365, at the monthly and daily levels, respectively
H mean annual flow depth
Hi,j flow depth at month/day j of year i
Hi mean monthly/daily flow depth in year i (mean of depths Hi,j for fixed j)
2023.03.15 32
 Characterization (… quantitative …) of the relative time variability of monthly

and daily streamflows based on the dimensionless mean quadratic
deviation of monthly and daily flow depths:
… as many values of the mean quadratic deviation, DQMi, as the number

of years of records , N characterization by the average, MED DQM
(average of the mean quadratic deviations), and by the standard

deviation, DVS DQM (standard deviation of the mean quadratic
deviations).
… for the 24 (first stage) and for the 54 (second stage) river gauge stations analyzed …
MED DQM = α H β DVS DQM = α’ H β’

2023.03.15 33
Average, MED, and standard deviation, DSV, of the monthly DQM (-)
Monthly
54 river gages
MED DQM=0.429 H -0.2411 level – [1]
0.14
r=0.739 DSV DQM=1.409 H -0.5067
0.11
r=0.840
0.08
0.05
24 river gages
0.02
0 500 1000 1500 2000
2023.03.15 34
Monthly
54 river gages
MED DQM=0.429 H -0.2411 level – [1]
0.14
r=0.739 DSV DQM=1.409 H -0.5067
0.11
r=0.840
0.08
0.05
24 river gages
0.02
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Average, MED, and standard deviation, DSV, of the daily DQM (-)
0.013
54 river gages
0.009 MED DQM=0.0715 H -0.4153
r=0.740
DSV DQM=0.2083 H -0.6692
0.005
r=0.798
0.012
Daily
0.008
0.004
level – [2]
0.001 0.000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Mean annual flow depth, H (mm) 2023.03.15 35
Monthly
54 river gages
MED DQM=0.429 H -0.2411 level – [1]
0.14
r=0.739 DSV DQM=1.409 H -0.5067
0.11
r=0.840
0.08
The MED and the DSV of the
0.05 mean quadratic deviation,
24 river gages
0.02 DQM, as H
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Mean annual flow depth, H (mm) … the monthly and daily flows
Average, MED, and standard deviation, DSV, of the daily DQM (-) becomes more irregular as the
0.013 region is drier
54 river gages (statistically significant

0.009 MED DQM=0.0715 H -0.4153
r=0.740
dependence)
DSV DQM=0.2083 H -0.6692
0.005
r=0.798
0.012
Daily
0.008
0.004
level – [2]
0.001 0.000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Mean annual flow depth, H (mm) 2023.03.15 36
-0.237587
Coefficient
-0.099346
-0.092698
-0.240215
Cv=4.895 H -0.354
-0.222125
-0.274621 (r=0.975)
0.8
-0.220716
-0.50133
Cv=4.285 H -0.324 (r=0.900)
0.6
-0.179105 Annual level 6
Q/Qmod
-0.289943
c) H<400 mm
-0.28886
0.4
-0.255644 Annual flow with non-exceedance probability of α, Hα (mm) 5
-0.245215 -0.27 5000
-0.383588
Quintela, 1967: Cv =2.74 H Based on 54 river gauge stations. Non-exceedance
H99 4
-0.115171
0.2 probability, α:
4000
-0.483101 0.05
-0.37185 0 500 1000 1500 0.20
0.2 2000 3
3000 0.95 H 95
-0.362506 Mean annual
0.99 flow depth, H (mm)
-0.710286 Com base em 24 estações hidrométricas 2
2000 H20
Q/Qmod
1
1000 6
H5
0
a)
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Mean annual flow depth, H (mm) Duração (dia)
4
54 river gages
Monthly and daily levels
3 Daily
MED DQM=0.429 H -0.2411
0.14
r=0.739 DSV DQM=1.409 H -0.5067
2 level
r=0.840 Average, MED, and standard deviation, DSV, of the daily DQM (-) 1
0.11
Q/Qmod
0.013 6
0 b) H>400 mm
0.08 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
5 350
54 river gages Duração (dias)
4
0.05 0.009 MED DQM=0.0715 H -0.4153
24 river gages
r=0.740 3
DSV DQM=0.2083 H -0.6692
0.02
0 500 1000 1500 2000
r=0.798 2
0.005
Mean annual flow depth, H (mm) 1
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0.001 Duração (dia)
0 500 1000 1500 2000

The mean annual flow depth, H, provides a measure of the relative temporal
irregularity of the annual, monthly and daily flow, being that such
irregularity decreases as H increases
(the drier the region is the more irregular, in relative terms, the flow regime is). 2023.03.15 37
2023.03.15 38
3.2. The streamflow regionalization model
Streamflow in month/day j of year i
Watershed:
[1]
Index 1 – gauged catchment
Index 2 – ungauged catchment
[2]
…. Streamflow on day/month j of
[3]
year i ratio of mean annual
flow depths, H - eq. [1] – or of mean
[4] annual flow volumes V - eqs. [2] e [4]
– or of the corresponding modulus,
[5] Qmod - eqs. [3] e [5]
39
2023.03.15 39
Streamflow in month/day j of year i
Watershed:
[1]
Index 1 – gauged catchment
Index 2 – ungauged catchment
[2]
…. Streamflow on day/month j of
[3]
year i ratio of mean annual
flow depths, H - eq. [1] – or of mean
[4] annual flow volumes V - eqs. [2] e [4]
– or of the corresponding modulus,
[5] Qmod - eqs. [3] e [5]
40
2023.03.15 40
Entradas GS (H=124 mm; A=52 km2): observed streamflows (blue) and streamflows
obtained by transposition (green) from Monte da Ponte GS (H=116 mm; A=707 km2)
(South of Portugal, Guadiana river basin)
A nnual flow (hm3 ) Monthly flow (hm3 )
0.4
3.0
Annual Monthly
2.0
0.2
1.0
0.0 0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 0 12 24 36 48 60
Year (from 1971/72 to 1989/90) Month (from 1971/72 to 1975/76)
2023.03.15 41
Entradas GS (H=124 mm; A=52 km2): streamflows obtained by transposition (green)

from Monte da Ponte GS (H=116 mm; A=707 km2)
0.4
3.0
Annual Monthly
2.0
0.2
1.0
0.0 0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 0 12 24 36 48 60
2023.03.15 42
0.4
3.0 Monthly
Annual
2.0
0.2
1.0
0.0 0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 0 12 24 36 48 60
2023.03.15 43
0.4
3.0 Monthly
Annual
2.0
0.2
1.0
0.0 0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 0 12 24 36 48 60
3) 3 )
Daily - 1977/78 3) 3 )
Daily - 1985/86
Daily flow
Escoamento (hm(hm
diário Daily flow
Escoamento (hm(hm
diário
(wet year) (dry year)
0.40 0.08
0.30 0.06
0.20 0.04
0.10 0.02
0.00 0.00
2023.03.15 44
Castanheiro GS (H=417 mm; A=3718 km2): observed streamflows (blue) and streamflows
obtained by transposition (green) from Cidadelhe GS (H=382 mm; A=1685 km2)
(North of Portugal, Douro river basin)
Annual
Annual flow (hm3))
flow (hm3 Monthly flow (hm3)
Annual Monthly
2.0
0.4
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
0 12 24 36 48 60
2023.03.15 45
Annual
Annualflow (hm3))
flow (hm3 Monthly flow
Monthly (hm
flow
3)
(hm3 )
Annual Monthly
2.0 0.4
1.0 0.2
0.0 0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 0 12 24 36 48 60
2023.03.15 46
Annual flow
Escoamento
Escoamento (hm(hm3
diário
anual 3) 3))
(hm Monthly flow
Escoamento
Escoamento (hm(hm3
diário
mensal 3) 3))
(hm
Annual Monthly
2.0 0.4
1.0 0.2
0.0 0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 0 12 24 36 48 60
Ano (de 1958/59 a 1973/74) Mês (anos de 1958/59 a 1962/63)
2023.03.15 47
Annual flow
Escoamento
Escoamento (hm(hm3
diário
anual 3) 3))
(hm Monthly flow
Escoamento
Escoamento (hm(hm3
diário
mensal 3) 3))
(hm
Annual Monthly
2.0 0.4
1.0 0.2
0.0 0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 0 12 24 36 48 60
Ano (de 1958/59 a 1973/74) Mês (anos de 1958/59 a 1962/63)
Daily flowdiário
Escoamento (hm3(hm
) 3) Daily - 1977/78 Daily flow
Escoamento (hm(hm
diário 3) 3)
Daily- 1985/86
(average year) 0.09 (wet year)
0.06
0.04 0.06
0.03
0.02
0.00
0.00
2023.03.15 48
Area H in the common Correlation coefficients between flows obtained by

River gauge station recording period the regional model and measured flows
2
(km ) (mm) Annual flows Monthly flows Daily flows
Monte da Ponte 707 116
0.989 0.986 0.893
Entradas 52 124
Torrão do Alentejo 465 131
0.970 0.969 0.887
Moinho do Bravo 218 175
Amieira 1474 154
0.925 0.854 0.611
Odivelas 431 175
Monte dos Fortes 288 215
0.949 0.908 0.817
Vascão 428 254
Cidadelhe 1685 382
0.953 0.937 0.865
Castanheiro 3718 417
Castro Daire 291 772
0.963 0.957 0.865
Vinhais-Qt. Ranca 455 804
Model validation: high correlation on every time scale

(very good fit between observed and estimated flows).
2023.03.15 49
 Application field: estimation of streamflows in ungauged watersheds;

filling of gaps and lengthen of the samples.
 Requirement: unregulated watersheds with similar mean annual flow

depths, H, and with analogous occupation and geomorphic
conditions (conditions ensured by the geographic proximity of the watersheds).
 Memo: the lack of records does not prevent the

estimation of the mean annual flow depth
(regression equation between annual values of streamflow
Mean
and rainfall; map with the contour lines of the mean annual annual flow
depth (mm)
flow depth).
 Advantage: simple, reliable and eventually

applicable to other regions, namely, in the
South of Europe.
2023.03.15 50
4. THE MEAN ANNUAL FLOW DEPTH AS A PARAMETER FOR DESIGNING
STORAGE CAPACITIES OF ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIRS
• Basic concepts of reservoir design
• Deterministic approach to reservoir design
• Probabilistic approach to reservoir design, based on synthetic streamflow series

51
4.1. Basic concepts of reservoir design
 In countries, like mainland Portugal, with very irregular streamflows (in space ….
within the present context, in time), water supply is made, generally, from artificial
reservoirs (to adapt the natural inflow regime to that of the water demands).
Annual flow volume
In average, 80% of the annual flow occurs in

the wet semester, from October to March, and
only 20% in the dry semester (… 95% + 5% ...)
1 11 21 31 41 Year
2023.03.15 52
 In countries, like mainland Portugal, with very irregular streamflows, water

supply is made, generally, from artificial reservoirs (to adapt the natural inflow
regime to that of the water demands).
 Frequently, at the preliminary stages of the water resource planning, it is

necessary to make an expeditious evaluation of the feasibility of providing a
given water supply in order to meet a certain demand. Aiming at the
preliminary design of artificial reservoirs, some authors developed
criteria mostly based on streamflow statistics.
Inflow
?
Demand Capacity
2023.03.15 53
 In countries, like mainland Portugal, with very irregular streamflows, water

supply is made, generally, from artificial reservoirs (to adapt the natural inflow
regime to that of the water demands).
 Frequently, at the preliminary stages of the water resource planning, it is

necessary to make an expeditious evaluation of the feasibility of providing a
given water supply in order to meet a certain demand. Aiming at the
preliminary design of artificial reservoirs, some authors developed
criteria mostly based on streamflow statistics.
 The research on the capability of the mean annual flow depth to describe
the temporal variability of the streamflow regime in Portugal suggested the
that the preliminary design of the storage capacity of artificial
reservoirs could also be based on H.
More irregular flow regime Smaller mean

annual flow depth Higher storage capacity
2023.03.15 54
 The flow regulation done by an artificial reservoir is ensured by its

storage capacity, C (which is function of (i) the characteristics of the inflow regime to
the reservoir, in terms of volumes and their temporal variability; (ii) the characteristics of the
water supply, also in terms of volumes and of their temporal distribution; and (iii) the
reliability required by the type water supply – urban, irrigation, energy production, …).
Mean annual
water supply, V
(ii) V? (i) C? (ii) V? (iii) G?
(i) C?
Storage capacity of Reliability of the
the reservoir, C water supply, G
(iii) G?
2023.03.15 55
Problems faced by the design of artificial reservoirs
Mean annual
water supply, V
(i) C?
(i) C?
2023.03.15 56
Mean annual
water supply, V
(ii) V? (ii) V?

2023.03.15 57
Mean annual
water supply, V
(iii) G?

(iii) G?
2023.03.15 58
Mean annual
water supply, V
(ii) V? (i) C? (ii) V? (iii) G?
Storage capacity of
(i) C?
Reliability of the
Reliability:
(iii) G?
(reliability = percentage of the total number of time steps, N, in a long time interval in which the
specified demand is met; in the remaining time steps there will occur partial or total restrictions to the
supply; being Nr the number of periods during which the demand was not met, Nr/N empirical
probability of the occurrence of a partial or total failure; shortfalls are equally weighted regardless
the magnitude of the volume shortage)
Other metrics of the performance of the reservoirs
2023.03.15 59
Mean annual
water supply, V
(ii) V? (i) C? (ii) V? (iii) G?
Storage capacity of
(i) C?
Reliability of the
Reliability:
(iii) G?
The reliability as described allows the design of the storage capacity of a reservoir
by simulating its exploitation based on the mass equation (regardless of the simplicity of
the approach, it allows addressing very relevant aspects of the design of artificial reservoirs such as (i) the
variability, along the year and among years, of the inflow regime; (ii) the seasonal behaviour of the demands;
(iii) the effect of the water initially stored in the reservoir (boundary conditions); (iv) the evaporation and
other losses from the reservoir; (v) the geometric constraints of the water storage in the valley; (vi) ….)
Cau dal (m 3/ s)
900 1 (tc=10 h)
1 (3tc=30 h)
3 (600 min)
6 (300 min)
800 9 (200 min)
12 (150 min)
15 (120 min)
30 (60 min)
700
600
500
P
400
300
200
E
100
Q
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Te mp o (h)
L
C
• Time step
S D • Initial condition
• Restriction
L
2023.03.15 60

Ca uda l (m3/s)
1 (t c= 10 h)
9 00 1 (3 ct =30 h)
3 (6 00 min)
6 (3 00 min)
8 00 9 (2 00 min)
12 (150 min )
15 (120 min )
30 (60 min)
7 00
We understand the problem …

6 00
5 00
4 00
P
3 00
2 00
1 00
Q E
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Te mpo (h )
L
We know which results
C Mean annual
water supply, V are intended …
S D
V?
(ii) V?
C?
(i) C? V?
(ii) V? G?
(iii) G?
L
Storage capacity of
C?
(i) C?
Reliability of the
the reservoir, C
G?
(iii) G? water supply, G
G = (1 – Nr / N) x 100
We know the models
to be applied …
We know the role of H …
Regional model to design artificial reservoirs
• C/V specific or dimensionless storage capacity
• Vf / V specific or dimensionless demand
C: storage capacity; V: mean annual volume over the watershed; Vf: mean annual demand; G: reliability; H: mean annual flow depth
2023.03.15 61
4.2. A deterministic approach to reservoir design
 Application of the simulation algorithm based on the mass equation to the

monthly river discharges at the river gauge stations utilized in the flow
regionalization model, considering that a hypothetical dam would be built at each
river section aiming to create an artificial reservoir to provide different uniform
demands with different reliabilities
Pairs of values (G; Vf/V)
with H in mm e σ > 0 e θ < 0
(for each reliability, G, and mean annual specific demand, Vf,/V, the specific
storage, C/V, increases as the mean annual flow depth, H , decreases
because the river flow regime is more irregular in drier catchments)
2023.03.15 62
Specific storage, C/V (%)
Reliability G = 90%
Mean annual specific demand, Vf / V, of:
Mean annual flow depth (mm)
2023.03.15 63
Reliability G = 90%
Establishment of the values of σ and θ by linear regression analysis

applied to the logarithms of H and C/V
2023.03.15 64
Reliability G = 85%
Establishment of the values of σ and θ by linear regression analysis

applied to the logarithms of H and C/V
2023.03.15 65
2023.03.15 66
• Uniform demand
• S0=C Garantia G=95%
• Fixed G and Vf/V

Garantia G=90%
• H in mm Garantia G=80%
Garantia G=95%
Mean annual specific demand, Vf / V

20% 40% 50% 60% 80% 90%
σ 1387.2 557.3 663.0 787.1 1208.9 1409.4
Reliability
θ -1.026 -0.647 -0.606 -0.577 -0.544 -0.515
G=80%
cc -0.830 -0.887 -0.888 -0.874 -0.861 -0.848
σ 685.6 1109.1 1542.6 2207.0 2286.6 1831.0
Reliability
θ -0.811 -0.689 -0.671 -0.668 -0.557 -0.457
G=90%
cc -0.861 -0.882 -0.860 -0.860 -0.811 -0.744
σ 1024.3 2065.2 2687.8 3084.7 2333.9 1759.8
Reliability
θ -0.823 -0.739 -0.710 -0.668 -0.503 -0.390
G=95%
cc -0.867 -0.863 -0.851 -0.838 -0.761 -0.672
σ 1576.0 2086.2 2054.7 2124.0 1702.3 1367.4
Reliability
G=100% θ -0.789 -0.635 -0.565 -0.515 -0.374 -0.281
cc -0.815 -0.635 -0.785 -0.760 -0.658 -0.548
2023.03.15 67
2023.03.15 68
4.3. A probabilistic approach to reservoir design
 Regardless how “rigorous” and “complete” our knowledge about the design
conditions of a reservoir is (in terms of the water demand and of the different types of water
losses from the reservoir), a river discharge sample is only a single hydrological
event leading to a single estimate of the storage capacity
 Other sequences of river discharges, even if they had statistical
characteristics similar to the historical ones, would probably result in different
storage capacity depending on their temporal pattern
 It is not acceptable to design any reservoir on a single hydrological
event
Problem of stochastic nature whose solution depends on

the “amount” of the water (river discharges) and, as important as
that amount, on its temporal pattern
2023.03.15 69
To analyse the consequences of the stochastic nature of river flows on the

storage capacity of a reservoir streamflow series as probable as the
historical one and preserving its statistical characteristics are required
Vf G C1
C1
C2
Vf G C2
….
Vf G CM
CM
Synthetic streamflow series

2023.03.15 70
 The use of synthetic streamflow series is an important tool in water

resources planning and management
 Knowing that a sample of river discharges represents a single event (the

historical one), the synthetic series obtained from that sample can be
considered alternate events with probabilities of occurrence that are
admittedly equal to that of the observed event
 The use of synthetic streamflow series enables to assess the

uncertainties due to the temporal variability of the river flow regime
 By applying statistical tools to the results given by the synthetic flow

series it is possible to characterized the performance of the system whose
analysed utilized those series, not only deterministically (as in a
conventional analysis), but also probabilistically
2023.03.15 71
The application of synthetic series to

Caudal (m3/s )
900 1 (t c= 10 h)
1 (3t c =30 h )
3 (60 0 min )
6 (30 0 min )
800 9 (20 0 min )
1 2 1( 50 mi n)
1 5 1( 20 mi n)
3 0 6( 0 min )
700
600
500
400
300
the reservoir design

200
100
E
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Tempo (h)
Disaggregation model
=
Probabilistic model of streamflow generation at a higher/annual
time level (random sampling of the log-Pearson III distribution)
+
Disaggregation of annual streamflows into monthly streamflows
by application of the method of fragments (… briefly mentioned …)
2023.03.15 72
Disaggregation from year to month: method of fragments

 Assumption: the within-year distribution of flows at a lower time levels
(months or days) is identical in years with similar annual flows.
 Based on an N-year sample N fragments, φN, obtained by dividing
monthly flows in each year, yk,i, by the corresponding annual flow, Yk
Year 1, φ1
Year 2, φ2
Year 3, φ3
Year 4, φ4
……… .........
Year k, φk
Year k+1, φk+1
……… .........
Year N-1, φN-1

Year N, φN
2023.03.15 73
Year k, φk
Fragment
Fragment
 When applied to disaggregate annual flows into monthly flows, each
fragment is nothing but a sequence of 12 dimensionless monthly
flows adding up to 1
 There are as many fragments as the number of years with records, N

2023.03.15 74
Fragment
Year k
 When applying the method to disaggregate annual flows into monthly

flows, the historical annual flows are ranked and allocated to classes of
fragments whose boundaries need to be previously defined
 The best definition of the classes is the one that ensures that the synthetic
flow series preserve the historical statistical characteristics
2023.03.15 75
Year 1, φ1
Year 2, φ2
 Once the classes of fragments are
Year 3, φ3
defined, the method proceeds with the
generation of an annual flow, followed by Year 4, φ4
.........
its allocation to a class from which a ………
fragment is randomly selected

Year k, φk
 By multiplying the generated annual flow Year k+1, φk+1
by selected fragment twelve monthly ………

.........
flows are obtained Year N-1, φN-1
Year N, φN
2023.03.15 76
Year 1, φ1
 As discussed by several authors, the definition of Year 2, φ2
the classes is the most important feature, but Year 3, φ3
also drawback, of the method of fragments

Year 4, φ4
 Because there was not a clear criteria on how to ………

.........
define the classes (except based on iterative approaches

testing different definitions aiming at identifying the one the ensured Year k, φk
the best preservation of the historical statistical characteristics …

Year k+1, φk+1
meaningless time-consuming process!!) additional research ………
.........
were done aiming at developing a robust criteria

Year N-1, φN-1
to define the classes of fragments
Year N, φN
2023.03.15 77
…. “automation” of the method of the

fragments: Class 1: ]0; 0.1[
(i) fragments grouped into τ classes with

variable number of fragments but with equal
……… ……..
annual flow probability amplitude (for τ = 10

classes amplitude of 10%);
Class j
(ii) fragments selected by applying a random
extraction procedure without replacement

and with “refilling” of a class once it ……… ……..
becomes empty Class 10: [0.9; 1.0[
78
2023.03.15 78
Automation of the definition of

the classes of the method of
fragments
Class 1: ]0; 0.1[
Classes defined as non-

exceedance probability intervals
……… ……..
of the annual flows
Class j
Comprehensive validation of the

proposed approach based on its
application to disaggregate
……… ……..
annual flows either into monthly
or daily flows Class 10: [0.9; 1.0[
2023.03.15 79
Automation of the definition of

the classes of the method of
fragments
Class 1: ]0; 0.1[
Classes defined as non-

exceedance probability intervals
……… ……..
of the annual flows
Class j
Comprehensive validation of the

proposed approach based on its
application to disaggregate
……… ……..
annual flows either into monthly
or daily flows Class 10: [0.9; 1.0[
2023.03.15 80
Uniform random
Random number between 0
number
generator and 1
For each river gauge station
2023.03.15
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
Random number between 0
number
generator and 1
2023.03.15
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
Random number between 0 Probability
number
generator and 1 distribution
function (log-
-Pearson III)
Annual flow
C/V = σ H θ for a uniform demand; S0=C; and fixed G, Gp and Vf/V,

At the set of the with Gp, probabilistic reliability (probability of meeting the
gauging stations objective facing the tamporal variability of the flow regime)
2023.03.15 83
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
number
function (log-
-Pearson III)
Identification
of the class Annual flow
of fragments
C/V = σ H θ for a uniform demand; S0=C; and fixed G, Gp and Vf/V,

with Gp, probabilistic reliability (probability of meeting the
objective facing the tamporal variability of the flow regime)
2023.03.15 84
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
number
function (log-
-Pearson III)
Identification
of fragments
Fragment random
selection
2023.03.15 85
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
number
function (log-
-Pearson III)
Identification
Twelve monthly of fragments
Fragment random
synthetic flows selection
2023.03.15 86
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
number
function (log-
-Pearson III)
Identification
Fragment random
Simulation model C1
Repeat N times (N years of monthly flows,
N being the available sample size)
2023.03.15 87
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
number
function (log-
-Pearson III)
Identification
Fragment random
Simulation model C1
For each pair of values of
C1
(G;Vf/V), statistical treatment
Repeat M times (M samples of N C2 (Gumbel law) of 1 (historical) + M
years of synthetic monthly flows ….. …..
(synthetic) values of the storage
+ historical sample) M=1200 CM+1 capacity, C (… C for different non
exceedance probabilities )
2023.03.15 88
Uniform random
F(x) = P (X x)
number
function (log-
-Pearson III)
Identification
Fragment random
Simulation model C1
For each pair of values of
C1
(G;Vf/V), statistical treatment
Repeat M times (M samples of N C2 (Gumbel law) of 1 (historical) + M
years of synthetic monthly flows ….. …..
(synthetic) values of the storage
+ historical sample) M=1200 CM+1 capacity, C (… C for different non
exceedance probabilities )
C/V = σ H θ for a uniform demand; S0=C; and fixed G, Gp and Vf/V, with Gp,
For the set of river probabilistic reliability (probability of meeting the objective
gauges stations taking into account the temporal variability of the flow regime)
2023.03.15 89
Data: annual and monthly flow samples at the 54 river gauge stations adopted in
the regionalization model
Models: at the annual level, random sampling of the log-Pearson type III
distribution (thus avoiding the generation of negative flows).
At the monthly levels: method of the fragments with the new approach to
define the classes.
For each river gauge station with N years of annual and monthly flow data,
generation of M=1200 synthetic series each one with the length N (total of
approx. 30 x 106 monthly and annual synthetic flows).
Initial condition: reservoir full at the beginning, S0=C.

Assumptions: uniform demand; losses by evaporation and infiltration negligible.
Results: For different mean annual specific demands, Vf / V, curves

relating the specific storage capacity, C / V, with the probabilistic
reliability, Gp, for different deterministics reliabilities, G.
2023.03.15 90
Specific storage capacity
Deterministic reliability: G = 95% Mean

annual specific demand: Vf/V = 40%
54 river gauges stations … Consistency

among the results from the historical samples
(deterministic approach) and the average
results from the synthetic samples
Historical samples and

means of the synthetic
samples
2023.03.15 91
Deterministic reliability: G = 95% Mean

annual specific demand: Vf/V = 40%
Probabilistic reliability: GP=95%
(synthetic flow series)
Storage capacity that, as a consequence of the variability of

the flow regime (that may include sequences of monthly flows with
temporal patterns different from the observed one), is necessary to meet
the objective defined by (G;V) in GP% of the time.

(synthetic flow series)

samples
2023.03.15 92
GP=95%
G = 95% Vf/V = 40%
(synthetic series)
According to the available samples, the storage capacity, C, that is

necessary to provide Vf = 40% V with a deterministic reliability of
G=95% in a watershed with H=500 mm is given by point (1), i.e., is
approx. C = V. That is also the average storage capacity resulting from
(3) the synthetic series – point (1).
(2)
GP=80%
(1) (synthetic series)

samples
500
2023.03.15 93
GP=95%
G = 95% Vf/V = 40%
(synthetic series)
But if we take into account that the flow series over a span of N years
can present temporal patterns different from the historical one, then,
to ensure the same water demand Vf = 40% V with the same
deterministic reliability of G=95% in Gp = 80% of the possible
sequences of N years of flows, a storage capacity of C = 1.3 V is
necessary - point (2). If the probabilistic reliability increases to
(3) Gp = 95% the storage capacity increases to C = 1.7 V – point (3).
(2)
(1) GP=80%
(synthetic series)

samples
500
2023.03.15 94

(synthetic series) G = 95%
Vf/V = 40%
As H decreases the amplitude of the interval

increases due to the increase of the relative
temporal variability of streamflows (drier region)

(synthetic series)

samples
2023.03.15 95
GP=95%
(séries sintéticas) G = 80%
Vf /V = 40%
GP=95%
(séries sintéticas) G = 95%
Vf /V = 40%
Amostras históricas e médias

das séries sintéticas
For a given watershed (characterize by a GP=80%

(séries sintéticas)
mean annual flow depth) and water
demand, the interval of the C/V estimates
Amostras históricas e médias
gets wider as the deterministic reliability, das séries sintéticas
G, increases Gp fixed).
2023.03.15 96
• Fixed G andVf/V • Uniform demand

• H in mm • S0=C
20% 40% 50% 60% 80% 90%
σ 1132.8 947.7 1296.9 1821.5 3085.2 3534.3
GP=80% θ -0.967 -0.712 -0.694 -0.689 -0.663 -0.628
cc -0.857 -0.896 -0.896 -0.899 -0.899 -0.893
σ 1226.9 1239.6 1776.5 2546.8 4276.8 4753.7
GP=90% θ -0.966 -0.744 -0.732 -0.730 -0.700 -0.658
Reliability cc -0.865 -0.895 -0.896 -0.898 -0.898 -0.892
G=80% σ 1318.6 1551.0 2305.9 3356.1 5575.8 6039.8
GP=95% θ -0.966 -0.770 -0.764 -0.763 -0.729 -0.681
cc -0.870 -0.894 -0.894 -0.897 -0.897 -0.890
σ 1528.1 2360.4 3744.0 5580.6 9018.7 9302.5
GP=99% θ -0.966 -0.818 -0.821 -0.823 -0.780 -0.721
cc -0.875 -0.890 -0.890 -0.894 -0.893 -0.885
Probabilistic reliability, GP, probability

of meeting the objective once we take into .... .... .... ....
account the temporal variability of the flow regime
Meean annual flow
depth(mm)
σ 1476.7 3532.5 4622.2 5333.1 4960.2 3912.1
GP=80% θ -0.863 -0.803 -0.772 -0.728 -0.588 -0.483
cc -0.876 -0.895 -0.900 -0.903 -0.886 -0.843
σ 2107.9 5085.9 6436.7 7148.4 6151.8 4641.1
GP=90% θ -0.907 -0.845 -0.808 -0.755 -0.600 -0.487
Reliability cc -0.877 -0.895 -0.899 -0.902 -0.887 -0.844
G=95% σ 2821.4 6845.3 8419.0 9055.9 7326.1 5344.1
GP=95% θ -0.942 -0.879 -0.835 -0.777 -0.609 -0.490
cc -0.877 -0.894 -0.898 -0.901 -0.887 -0.844
σ 4813.6 11760.8 13688.7 13872.6 10064.7 6944.7
GP=99% θ -1.004 -0.940 -0.884 -0.813 -0.625 -0.495
cc -0.875 -0.891 -0.893 -0.898 -0.887 -0.845
2023.03.15 97
• Fixed G andVf/V • Uniform demand

• H in mm • S0=C
20% 40% 50% 60% 80% 90%
σ 1132.8 947.7 1296.9 1821.5 3085.2 3534.3
GP=80% θ -0.967 -0.712 -0.694 -0.689 -0.663 -0.628
cc -0.857 -0.896 -0.896 -0.899 -0.899 -0.893
σ 1226.9 1239.6 1776.5 2546.8 4276.8 4753.7
GP=90% θ -0.966 -0.744 -0.732 -0.730 -0.700 -0.658
Reliability cc -0.865 -0.895 -0.896 -0.898 -0.898 -0.892
G=80% σ 1318.6 1551.0 2305.9 3356.1 5575.8 6039.8
GP=95% θ -0.966 -0.770 -0.764 -0.763 -0.729 -0.681
cc -0.870 -0.894 -0.894 -0.897 -0.897 -0.890
σ 1528.1 2360.4 3744.0 5580.6 9018.7 9302.5
GP=99% θ -0.966 -0.818 -0.821 -0.823 -0.780 -0.721
cc -0.875 -0.890 -0.890 -0.894 -0.893 -0.885
Probabilistic reliability, GP, probability

of meeting the objective once we take into .... .... .... ....
account the temporal variability of the flow regime
Meean annual flow
depth(mm)
σ 1476.7 3532.5 4622.2 5333.1 4960.2 3912.1
GP=80% θ -0.863 -0.803 -0.772 -0.728 -0.588 -0.483
cc -0.876 -0.895 -0.900 -0.903 -0.886 -0.843
σ 2107.9 5085.9 6436.7 7148.4 6151.8 4641.1
GP=90% θ -0.907 -0.845 -0.808 -0.755 -0.600 -0.487
Reliability cc -0.877 -0.895 -0.899 -0.902 -0.887 -0.844
G=95% σ 2821.4 6845.3 8419.0 9055.9 7326.1 5344.1
GP=95% θ -0.942 -0.879 -0.835 -0.777 -0.609 -0.490
cc -0.877 -0.894 -0.898 -0.901 -0.887 -0.844
σ 4813.6 11760.8 13688.7 13872.6 10064.7 6944.7
GP=99% θ -1.004 -0.940 -0.884 -0.813 -0.625 -0.495
cc -0.875 -0.891 -0.893 -0.898 -0.887 -0.845
2023.03.15 98
5. FINAL NOTE: PERSPECTIVES

99
H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)
[1] … is able to “explain” the
relative temporal variability
of the river flows at different
time scales in Portugal
2023.03.15 100
H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)
relative temporal variability [2] … is the “scale” parameter of a
of the river flows at different flow regionalization model at
time scales in Portugal different time scales (flow estimation,
series extension and gap filling)
2023.03.15 101
H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)
[3] … is also a parameter in

the design of artificial
reservoirs by simulation
H based on the mass
equation
2023.03.15 102
H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)

reservoirs by simulation [4] … allowed a deterministic approach
H based on the mass to design artificial reservoirs
equation C/V = σ H θ for fixed Vf/V and G.
2023.03.15 103
H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)

[5] … in parallel, “automation”

of the method of fragments
2023.03.15 104
H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)

[6] … synthetic series…. which

account for the variability of [5] … in parallel, “automation”
……
the possible flow sequences of the method of fragments
2023.03.15 105
H H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)


……
[7] … probabilistic approach to
design artificial reservoirs
C/V = σ H θ for fixed Vf/V, G
and GP.
GP1
GP2
2023.03.15 106
H
Mean annual flow
depth (mm)
[1]… is able to “explain” the
[3] …is also a parameter in


……
[7] … probabilistic approach to
design artificial reservoirs
C/V = σ H θ for fixed Vf/V, G
and GP. New perspectives in the analysis of hydrologic uncertainty
due to the temporal variability of the river flow regime and
GP1
GP2 of the possible utilization of the mean annual flow depth,
H, to parameterize that uncertainty.
2023.03.15 107
REFERENCES

108
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FROM THE REGIONALIZATION OF HYDROMETRIC
INFORMATION TO THE DESIGN OF ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIRS
AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
THE PORTUGUESE CASE STUDY
Maria Manuela Portela
2023.03.15
115

From The Regionalization of Hydrometric Information To The Design of Artificial Reservoirs and Uncertainty Analysis The Portuguese Case Study

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From The Regionalization of Hydrometric Information To The Design of Artificial Reservoirs and Uncertainty Analysis The Portuguese Case Study

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FROM THE REGIONALIZATION OF HYDROMETRIC

INFORMATION TO THE DESIGN OF ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIRS

THE PORTUGUESE CASE STUDY

Maria Manuela Portela

From the regionalization of hydrometric information to the design of

1. Scope and justification

2. Fundamental steps for establishing a regional model for streamflow

3. The mean annual flow depth, H, as a streamflow regionalization

4. The mean annual flow depth, H, as a parameter for designing storage

5. Final note: perspectives

1. Scope and justification

2. Fundamental steps for establishing a regional model for streamflow

3. The mean annual flow depth, H, as a streamflow regionalization

4. The mean annual flow depth as a parameter for designing storage

5. Final note: perspectives

From the regionalization of hydrometric information to the design of

1. Scope and justification

 In most regions of the globe, the characterization of water resources, in

Number of river gauge stations

1. Scope and justification

Examples of problems requiring streamflow estimates aiming at the

How much water

Recently the International Association of Hydrological Science, IAHS,

1. Scope and justification

Gauged PUB (IAHS) initiative Ungauged

Decade on predictions in ungauged basins, PUB, IAHS:

1. Scope and justification

Research aiming to develop a regionalization model to estimate

(i) Identification of the regionalization

Streamflow modelling 1. Scope and justification

Infiltration from Storage in artificial reservoirs

Storage in the Water supply

Percolation Channel flow from the groundwater

Water comming Water living Water storage Water in movement

Streamflow modelling 1. Scope and justification

Infiltration from Storage in artificial reservoirs

Storage in the Water supply

Percolation Channel flow from the groundwater

Water comming Water living Water storage Water in movement

1. Scope and justification

Water comming Water living Water storage Water in movement

Principles of model development (Hillel, 1987, in Silva, 1996)

1. Scope and justification

(river flow estimation)

Regionalization: model to transfer flow data from one watershed with

 … classification (Razavi & Coulibaly, 2013) … hydrologic model-dependent and

HYDROLOGIC MODEL- HYDROLOGIC MODEL-

From the regionalization of hydrometric information to the design of

2. Steps for establishing a regional model

 The simplest conceptual form:

estimates of the parameters of the regional model

F functional relationship between a set of parameters relative

to river basins, θ i, and physiographic and/or

meteorological attributes of those basins, Φ i ;

2. Steps for establishing a regional model

Establishing a regionalization model (adapted from Wagener & Wheater, 2006)

2. Steps for establishing a regional model

Establishing a regionalization model: Q =αAβ

(area, A, and discharge, Q) (area, A)

2. Steps for establishing a regional model

Establishing a regionalization model: Q =αAβ

(area, A, and discharge, Q) (area, A)

2. Steps for establishing a regional model