Foresight Training Toolkit

FORESIGHT
TRAINING TOOLKIT
WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICA
Developing skills and capacity in applying
foresight for climate resilient agricultural
development in West and Central Africa
Citation | Chesterman S, Neely C, Parramon Gurney M, Fuller EJ, Segnon AC,
Lamien N, Zougmoré R. 2022. Regional Foresight Community of Practice Training
Toolkit. Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa.
Published by Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate

Research for Africa (AICCRA) | AICCRA work is licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0International License. Find out more.
The Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project, led
by the Alliance Bioversity International and CIAT helps deliver a climate-smart African
future driven by science and innovation in agriculture. AICCRA works to make climate
information services and climate-smart agriculture technologies more accessible to
millions of smallholder farmers across Africa.
About AICCRA | Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research in Africa

(AICCRA) is a project that helps deliver a climate-smart African future driven
by science and innovation in agriculture. It is led by the Alliance of Bioversity
International and CIAT and supported by a grant from the International Development
Association (IDA) of the World Bank. Explore AICCRA’s work at aiccra.cgiar.org
Contact | Alcade C. Segnon, PhD, West Africa Science Officer AICCRA, Alliance of
Bioversity International and CIAT, Dakar - Senegal
A.Segnon@cgiar.org
Design and Layout | Debra-Jean Harte

Photo Cover: ©Adobe Stock
1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This WCA Regional Foresight Toolkit was designed and developed as As an umbrella organization, CORAF delivers on three activity
part of foresight training to support a regional Community of Practice pillars related to:
(CoP) of foresight experts in the West and Central Africa Region. A
regional training was held in Dakar, Senegal in October 2022, led A. Scaling technologies and innovations for impact;
by Sabrina Chesterman, Constance Neely, and facilitated by Marie
B. Regional integrated capacity strengthening and
Parramon Gurney, with support from Emma-Jane Fuller. Alcade
coordination; and
Segnon and Robert Zougmoré provided leadership to the partnership
and co-design of the entire training series and foresight application C. Knowledge management, foresighting and anticipation,
approach. In addition, Alcade co-facilitated key foresight sessions in each of which can address the urgent need to improve the
Dakar and lead stakeholder relationships through the entire process. knowledge base and evidence-based dialogue upon which
practice and policy responses to climate change are built.
We owe much gratitude to the expertise of the CORAF team, namely
CORAF’s 2018-2027 Strategic Plan particularly emphasizes the
Dr Nieyidoba Lamien, Dr Emmanuel Njukwe, Dr. Amadou Ngaiado and
role of foresight analysis – using historical data and modelling
Pauline Ngandoul Diouf for all their valuable discussions and insights
future scenarios to draw conclusions about actions to be taken
into structuring this froesight training and the establishment of a
in the present - to build consensus and inform decision-making
regional CoP to support the application of foresight across the region.
on research priorities.
The West and Central Africa Council for Agriculture Research and
A huge thanks to the regional foresight Community of Practice
Development (CORAF) is a core partner of the AICCRA West Africa
for all their hard work and support throughout the training
cluster. CORAF is an international non-profit association of national
(10 – 14 October 2022), their co-facilitation support during the
agricultural research systems from 23 West and Central African
application week (17-21 October 2022), and their eagerness
countries. Together with ASARECA (Association for strengthening
to be foresight ambassadors in the region. Ayodeji Rauf, Dr
agricultural research in Eastern and central Africa), CCARDESA (Centre
Hadja Oumou Sanon, Dr Adolphe Mahyao Germain, Edward H.
for Coordination of Agricultural Research and Development for
Decker, Dr. Ihegwuagu Nnemeka Edith, Dr Wouedjie, Thegue
Southern Africa) and NASRO (North African Sub-Regional Research
Alice-Norra, Dr. Nathalie Kpera, Dr. Djondang Koye, Aminata Bâ
Organization), it forms the four sub-regional organizations that make
Dia, Dr Amadou Abdoulaye M. Bahari, and Nestor Ngouambe.
up the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa, FARA.
2
The Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA)
project, led by the Alliance Bioversity International and CIAT helps deliver a
climate-smart African future driven by science and innovation in agriculture.
AICCRA works to make climate information services and climate-smart
agriculture technologies more accessible to millions of smallholder farmers
across Africa. With better access to technology and advisory services—linked
to information about effective response measures—farmers can better CORAF is an international non-profit association
anticipate climate-related shocks to take preventative action that helps their of national agricultural research systems from
communities safeguard livelihoods and the environment. AICCRA is being 23 West and Central African countries. Together
implemented across scales (continental, regional and country levels) in Africa. with ASARECA (Association for strengthening
agricultural research in Eastern and central
The West Africa regional level implementation led by AICCRA West Africa Africa), CCARDESA (Centre for Coordination
Cluster (AICCRA WA) collaborates with the West and Central Africa Council for of Agricultural Research and Development for
Agriculture Research and Development (CORAF), an association of national Southern Africa) and NASRO (North African Sub-
agricultural research systems from 23 West and Central African countries, Regional Research Organization), it forms the
and AGRHYMET Regional Centre, a specialized institute of the Permanent four sub-regional organizations that make up the
Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), to ensure that Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa, FARA.
effective large-scale intra-regional and south-south adoption within various
www.coraf.org
value chains are taking place through innovative delivery models for climate
services and CSA from West Africa. AICCRA aims to increase access to climate
information services and climate-smart agriculture technologies in Africa.
aiccra.cgiar.org
3
ACRONYMS AND
ABBREVIATIONS
AICCRA Accelerating the Impact of CGIAR Climate Research for
Africa
AU African Union
CAADP Africa Agriculture Development Programme
CEMAC Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa
CILSS Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in
the Sahel
CoP Community of Practice
CORAF West and Central Africa Council for Agriculture Research
and Development
CSA Climate Smart Agriculture
ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
EWS Early Warning Systems
FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation
FAW Fall Army Worm
IDRC International Development Research Centre
IPPC International Plant Protection Convention
LECRDS Low Emission Climate-Resilient Development
MSP Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships
NARIs National Agricultural Research Institutes
NARS National Agricultural Research Systems
RVF Rift Valley Fever
SHARED Stakeholder Approach to Risk Informed and Evidence-
based Decision-making
WCA West and Central Africa
WOAH World Organisation for Animal Health
WHO World Health Organisation
Photo: ©Ollivier Girard (CIFOR)
4
CONTENTS
THE AIM OF THE REGIONAL FORESIGHT 5
TRAINING TOOLKIT
FORESIGHT COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE 6
FORESIGHT KEY FRAMEWORK STAGES 7
STRUCTURE OF THE TOOLKIT 8

THE AIM OF
GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS 9
THE REGIONAL
FORESIGHT
MODULE 01 17
TRAINING TOOLKIT
Introduction to Foresight
MODULE 02 79
Understanding Trends and

This regional foresight training
Multi-sectoral and Systems Linkages
toolkit aims to support a
MODULE 03 137
regional foresight community
Visioning and Causal Analysis of practice to practically apply
MODULE 04 163 the range of foresight tools
Building Scenarios and methods for innovative
197 strategic planning and policy
MODULE 05
formulation in their respective
Scenario Implications and
Transformative Change institutions. The training
218 approach is mapped out on
MODULE 06
the following page.
Reflection and Strategy
REFERENCES 246
5
FORESIGHT COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE
TRAINING APPROACH
3.
HOW AND
WHEN TO APPLY
DIFFERENT STEPS
OF METHOD
4.
TOOLS 5.
PRACTICAL
2. EXERCISE FOR IMMERSING THE
COP MEMBERS TRAINING RELATED
UNPACK THE TO DEEPEN TO PESTS AND
KEY STEPS OF LEARNING DISEASES LINKED TO
METHODS OR AGRICULTURE AND
TOOLS CLIMATE RESILIENCE
1. AND ADD A INSECT
NEAR CROPS AS
INTRODUCE
INDICATION OF PESTS
THE FORESIGHT
METHOD OR
APPROACH
6 RETURN TO CONTENTS
FORESIGHT KEY FRAMEWORK STAGES
DATA , EVIDENCE, KNOWLEDGE AND CREATIVITY
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND PARTICIPATION
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS LONG TERM FUTURE PLANNING
Input Analysis Interpretation Plan Prospection Reflection Strategy
Context What is What do we want What might happen What might we want What will we do
Why is it happening?
happening? to experience in the that we have not to do to get there? differently?
future? What might thought about?
Scope get in our way?
Historical Systems
trends mapping Backcasting
Theme or analysis Developing Develop
Visioning
key topic scenarios road map
Cross
Geopolitical Horizon sectoral Pathway
boundary scanning and multi- Causal Scenario development Sequencing
stakeholder analysis implications & trade-offs relationships
Understand approaches
relevant Multi-
structures Network Transformation
mapping actions stakeholder
and policies co-ordination
Setting the
timelines Behaviour shift
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations
STRUCTURE OF THE TOOLKIT
The toolkit comprises six modules structured to both show the both the foresight tools, methods, and key steps but also to embed
methodology but also to be applied, by building a clear case study and case studies and practical examples to better apply those methods
examples of climate-resilient development in agricultural systems with into their own national and institutional contexts.
relevance to the WCA region. This allows the user to gain insights into
Application of the
An introduction A breakdown An explanation of method in the context
to the foresight of the key how and when to Background of developing a regional
method or steps of the apply the different on the preparedness and
approach in method or steps of the content; and response strategy plan
question; tool; method or tool; to pest and disease
outbreaks in the region.
MODULE 01 MODULE 02 MODULE 03 MODULE 04 MODULE 05 MODULE 06
MODULE 01 MODULE 02 MODULE 03 MODULE 04 MODULE 05 MODULE 06

INTRODUCTION UNDERSTANDING VISIONING AND BUILDING SCENARIO REFLECTION AND
TO FORESIGHT TRENDS AND MULTI- CAUSAL ANALYSIS SCENARIOS IMPLICATIONS AND STRATEGY
SECTORAL AND TRANSFORMATIVE
Introduction to SYSTEMS LINKAGES Applying foresight Applying foresight CHANGE Review of key foresight
applying foresight tools and methods: tools and methods: methods and tools
Understanding Applying foresight tools
approaches for visioning, causal introducing and tailoring practical
regional trends, multi- and methods: using
climate-resilient analysis and scenarios and action to agriculture
sectoral and systems scenarios to consider
agricultural integrating climate building multiple and climate change
linkages and climate uncertainties and
development. resilience into scenarios to future planning and
risks in the region. create more robust
future planning. consider in future implementation in
and transformative
planning. the West and Central
climate-resilient
Africa (WCA) region.
policies and plans.
GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS
FORESIGHT
Term Description Term Description
Backcasting The process of working backwards from the Critical Are drivers that are both highly impactful and
definition of a possible future to determine Uncertainties highly uncertain.
what needs to happen to make the future
unfold and connect to the present.
Barrier Identified obstacle that could stop the
achievement of an activity.
Cross-cutting Issues or challenges that affect more than a
Issues single interest area, institution, or stakeholder,
and that need to be addressed from all points
Black Swan An event that could absolutely not be of view.
predicted.
Drivers Are factors, issues or trends that cause change

Brainstorming thereby affecting or shaping the future.
A method of obtaining ideas without
judgement or filtering. It involves encouraging
wild and unconstrained suggestions and listing
ideas as they emerge.
Causality Driving Force A cluster of individual trends on the same
A logical link between events, where a cause
general subject moving trends in certain
precedes an effect and altering the cause alters
directions, they are broad in scope and long
the effect.
term in nature (for example, climate change or
globalisation).
Complexity Complex systems are non-linear and diverse Evidence The integration of raw data constituting
networks made up of multiple interconnected numbers, words, images, and insights emerging
elements. Cause and effect relationships from diverse knowledge sources.
within the system are not easily discernible
or predictable. Historical extrapolation is
not possible for predicting emergence (new External Driver External force of change, for example political
patterns and behaviours) in complex systems. or market drivers.
Feasible Possible and practical. Grey Rhino These are the large, obvious dangers that will
sooner or later emerge but whose exact timing
is unknown.
Forecast An estimate or best guess of what might Impact Refers to the potential scale of impact of a
happen in the future i.e. not a definitive driver on a scenario theme.
prediction.
Foresight Structured tools, methods and thinking styles to

enable the capacity to consider multiple futures Internal Driver Internal force of change for example, social
and plan for them. drivers within a farm or community directing
the decision making of a farmer.
Foresight A small core group that builds the foresight

Organising Group plan. Mega-trend A trend that is apparent at a large or global
scale e.g. growing youth population across the
African continent.
Foresight A broad mix of identified key stakeholders that

Participating need to be involved. Mind Mapping Allows a group’s ideas to be charted in logical
Group groupings fairly quickly, even when ideas
are given in a non-sequential manner. This
technique allows efficient brainstorming for
ideas and at the same time creates a skeletal
framework for later categorisation of the
Futuring The act, art, or science of identifying and
information generated.
evaluating possible future events.
Modelling and The process of creating and experimenting with
Simulation a computerised mathematical model imitating
the behaviour of a real-world process or system
Futures thinking Describes the practice of thinking about the over time. Simulation is used to describe and
future in a structured way, and the methods analyse the behaviour of a system when asking
and approaches that are used to do so. ‘what-if’ questions about the real system and
aid in the design of real systems.
Not Predictive Participatory with multiple viewpoints, bringing Scenarios Are storylines/narratives, answering ‘what if’
in quantitative and qualitative evidence but not questions that describe multiple alternative
predictive. futures spanning a key set of critical
uncertainties. Scenarios identify future drivers
of change and then plot out plausible directions
Pathway A trajectory in time, reflecting a sequence
that they may take.
of actions and consequences against a
background of separate developments, leading Scenario An approach to understanding highly impactful
to a specific future situation. Development and highly uncertain drivers and to describe
possible future states.
Plausible It is reasonable to assume the scenario could
happen. Plausibility does not mean that a future Although they address uncertainty, scenarios
situation will happen. are not predictions or forecasts - they are not
‘true’ or correct/wrong - only plausible.
Predictability The degree of confidence in a forecasting Scenario planning Is a technique of strategic planning that relies
on tools and technologies for managing the
system based either on law derived from
uncertainties of the future
observations and experience, or on scientific
reasoning and structural modelling.
Social Network A tool to identify the importance and influence
Projecting A quantitative technique that can be used in
Mapping of stakeholders as well as how they exchange
the analysis phase of the foresight process.
information or are connected.
Projecting or time series analysis are used when
several years of data are available, and trends
are both clear and relatively stable.
Strategic foresight The combination of foresight and strategic
Projection An expected value of one or more indicators
management
at particular points in the future, based on the
understanding of selected initial conditions and
drivers.
Resilience A system’s ability to cope with and recover from Time Frame The complete period (past-to-future) considered
shocks or disruptions, either by returning to the in a foresight exercise.
status quo or by transforming itself to adapt to
the new reality.
Transformation An agriculture and food systems transformation Unknown Issues and situations in organisations that have
is a significant redistribution - by at least a third Unknowns yet to surface and which are blind spots for
- of land, labour and capital, and/ or outputs, planners who are unaware that they do not
and outcomes (e.g. types and amounts of know about them.
production and consumption of goods and
services) within a time frame of a decade.
Trend A general tendency or direction of a movement Viable Able to be done or could occur.
or change over time e.g. increasing erratic
seasonal rainfall patterns.
Trend Impact Collecting information and attempting to spot a Vision A compelling image of a (usually preferred)
Analysis pattern, or trend, and assess its influence from future.
the information.
Visioning A well-known prospective technique with a

highly participatory approach.
Uncertainty Refers to how much or how clear we are on
how a driver will emerge or play out in the
future. High uncertainty does not mean ‘high
improbability’, high uncertainty can mean Wicked Problem A problem that is difficult or impossible to solve
having little knowledge of how something may because of incomplete, contradictory, and
pan out. changing requirements that are often difficult to
recognise.
Underlying Cause Unpacking why an obstacle is in place.
Wild Card A low-probability but high-impact event that

seems too incredible or unlikely to happen.
!
CLIMATE RESILIENCE

Adaptive Capacity The ability of systems, institutions, humans, Hazard A possible, future occurrence of natural or
and other organisms to adjust to potential human induced physical events that may have
damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or adverse effects on vulnerable and exposed
to respond to consequences. elements.
Risk Intersection of hazards, exposure, and

Climate Change Climate change is a change in the state of the
vulnerability.
climate that can be identified by changes in the
mean and/or the variability of its properties
and that persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer.
Sensitivity The degree to which a system is affected, either
adversely or beneficially, by climate variability
Climate Resilience The ability of a system to ‘bounce back’ from the or change.
impacts of climate-related stresses or shocks. It is
the ability of a system and its component parts to
anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from Social Inability of people, organisations, and societies
the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and Vulnerability to withstand adverse impacts from multiple
efficient manner, including through ensuring the stressors to which they are exposed.
preservation, restoration, or improvement of its
essential basic structures and functions.
Exposure Refers to the inventory of elements in an area Vulnerability The propensity or predisposition of a system to
in which hazard events may occur. be adversely affected by an event. Vulnerability
is a function of a system's sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity.
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
Agriculture Is the science, art, or practice of cultivating Elements The different, discrete elements within a
soil, producing crops, and raising livestock system (e.g. farms, organisations, inputs, and
and in varying degrees the preparation and soil).
marketing of the resulting products.
Agricultural Value Includes the people and activities that bring Interconnections The relationships that connect the elements
Chain a basic agricultural product such as maize to (e.g. rules, ideas, funding, or service
the consumer. The activities include obtaining relationships, among others).
inputs and production in the field right
through to storage, processing, packaging,
and distribution. Land Degradation A process in which the value of the
biophysical environment is affected by a
Biological Diversity The variability among living organisms from combination of human land-use activities. It
all sources, including terrestrial, marine, and is viewed as any change or disturbance to the
aquatic ecosystems. land perceived to be undesirable.
Multi-Stakeholder Consists of a mix of representatives or

Collaboration stakeholders from public, civil, and private
Cross Sectoral The engagement, management, planning
domains of society.
Coordination and implementation, of activities conducted
across different thematic sectors to deliver
development outcomes (e.g. food security,
nutrition, sustainable landscapes, and
agriculture).
Post-Harvest Loss Is the loss in quantity and quality of
agricultural produce between harvest and
consumption. It includes on-farm losses e.g.
Ecosystem Services These include provisioning services, such as
the production of food (e.g. fruit for humans damage to grain by pests, as well as losses
or grazing for cattle) and water; regulating, along the value chain during transportation,
such as the control of flooding and disease; storage, and processing.
supporting, such as nutrient cycles and
oxygen production; and cultural, such as
Pre-production This stage of the agricultural process is
prior to production and may involve land
spiritual and recreational benefits.
preparation and the sourcing and purchasing
of inputs such as seed and fertiliser.
Term Description
Productive Inputs These are used to increase yields and range
from improved seeds, genetics, fertilisers
and crop protection chemicals to machinery,
irrigation technology and knowledge.
System An interconnected set of elements that is

coherently organised in a way that achieves
something (function and purpose). For
example, the purpose of an agricultural
system could be to produce dairy
products and the system could consist of
interconnected elements such as the farmer,
employees, cattle, machinery, feed, water,
and energy.
Systems Thinking A mindset, tool, and process that is reserved
for complex problems.
Systems View Understands life as networks of relationships.
Transboundary Epidemic disease which is highly contagious

Animal Disease or transmissible and has the potential for
very rapid spread, irrespective of national
borders, causing serious socio-economic and
potentially public health consequences.
Photo: ©Adobe Stock
RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS EARLY WARNING RESPONSE refers

is the ability to refers to a continuous - Early warning systems to a series of coordinated
prevent disasters cycle of planning, are designed to enhance activities involving one
and crises organizing, training, detection of pests and or more organizations, in
as well as to equipping, exercising, diseases to prevent order to respond to pests
anticipate, absorb, evaluating, and taking introduction and spread. and disease concern/
accommodate or corrective action in an outbreak and bring the
Early warning systems
recover from them effort to ensure effective situation under control.
provide up-to-date,
in a timely, efficient coordination during
accurate information The development
and sustainable incident response.
on emerging crop and of decision support
manner. Preparedness is
livestock pests that may systems requires an
associated with disaster
be a threat to agriculture understanding of what
risk reduction.
or natural resources if information is needed,
they become established when it is needed, and
in new countries. at what resolution and
accuracy.
Introduction to foresight
MODULE 01
MODULE 01
Introduction
to foresight
MODULE 01
MODULE 01
OVERVIEW OF MODULE ONE
OBJECTIVES
OF MODULE
ONE
1. Provide an
introduction to Scope for a
foresight
Establish foresight exercise
2. Collaboratively map Introduce learning goals
learning goals for foresight Trends Analysis
the week
3. Set out the scope

for the foresight
exercise
4. Learn the tools of

trend analysis and
horizon scanning
5. Reflect on two Learning Practical

first phases of the reflections Practical Horizon exercise
framework exercise scanning
LEARNING EXERCISE
MODULE 01
What is your understanding of futures thinking?
Through the following set of questions. Once you pose the questions,
you can reflect with your key audience what their current comfort level
is regarding thinking and working in the future.
Consider the following How comfortable are you Thinking about the future for
questions and choose the thinking about the future? me is,
answers that apply:
1. Too uncertain
1. Very comfortable
The future is,
1. 2. Limited and a bit abstract
Uncertain 5. Certain 2. Comfortable
2. Unpredictable 6. Controllable 3. Comfortable on certain topics but

3. A little uncomfortable
not others
3. Foreseeable 7. Navigable
4. Very uncomfortable
4. Fixed 4. I’m confident to vision the future
What processes or tools do

When you are planning for When you are planning for the you use for planning for the
your personal future what year future through your work what future?
do you consider the future? timeframe do you work with?
1. Personal 4. Log frames
intuition
1. 2021 4. 2030 1. 1 Year 4. 10 Years 5. Strategic
2. Personal planning
2. 2023 5. 2040 2. 3 Years 5. More experiences
6. Scenarios
3. 2025 3. 5 Years 3. Impact
pathways 7. Other
WHY WE NEED TO PLAN
MODULE 01
FOR THE FUTURE
Climate-related stresses are “long-term trends or pressures
Life in the 21st century is complex, we are faced with
that undermine the stability of a system and increase
‘great disruptive forces’ such as climate change,
vulnerability within it”
technological advances, urbanisation and globalisation,
to name a few. These forces are not new to the world, the Examples of climate-related stresses include:
unique challenge is that they are occurring at the same time,
and at a large scale (UNDP, 2017). The accelerating pace of Decreased Delayed onset Higher
the forces, how they interact, and their resounding impact is average of the rainy temperatures
causing change that is exceedingly difficult to anticipate. annual rainfall season
New realities are being experienced, some of which are

negative, such as the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the
refugee crisis faced in Europe and the present day COVID-19
pandemic. However, the forces that cause these crises are
also responsible for developmental progress (UNDP, 2017).
Climate-related shocks are “external short-term deviations
In the face of rapid change and new realities, traditional from long-term trends that have substantial negative
governance and planning methods are suddenly not effects on people’s current state of well-being, level of
as effective as they used to be, as planning is typically assets, livelihoods, safety or their ability to withstand
based on: future shocks”
• Predictability; Shocks are normally acute events that either slowly emerge (e.g.,
droughts) or rapidly emerge (e.g., flooding).
• Clear causality;
•
Examples of climate-related shocks include:
Eliminating uncertainty;
• Tools that are strict and inflexible (e.g. legal and

budgetary frameworks). Floods Wildfires El Niño events
This causes severe implementation problems in an

uncertain and changing operating environment. Droughts Heatwaves Livestock or crop
disease outbreak
MODULE 01
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
Other key stressors
AGRICULTURE SYSTEMS
include:
LIVESTOCK
Rural poverty Diseases
Feed and
and pests
water
availability
Population
growth
Heat
Unequal CROPS stress
distribution/
access to natural Timing
resources and length
of growing
season
Land degradation Invasive
and deforestation species in
pasture
Nutritional
Water
content of
Lack of water availability
feed
access/
Invasive
infrastructure species
Gender inequality
Diseases
and
pests High
temperatures
Erratic
rainfall
events
Photo Top: ©Apollo Habtamu (ILRI)
Photo Bottom: ©Freepiks
FORESIGHT Climate lens
MODULE 01
FOR CLIMATE A tool or approach used to examine a strategy, policy, plan,
program or regulation in light of climate change.
RESILIENT AGRI-
FOOD SYSTEMS Climate-compatible or climate-
smart development
Development which minimises harm caused by climate impacts,
while maximising the many human development opportunities
and delivers benefits across all three priority areas: climate
mitigation, climate adaptation and poverty eradication.
Climate-proofing
A process that makes projects, strategies, policies and measures
“Climate resilience”
resilient to climate change, including climate variability, by
Systematically examining projects, strategies, and policies to

is the ability to cope identify ways to minimise climate change risks and optimise
with actual or expected adaptation, i.e., climate risk screening; and
climate-related stresses Integrating these ways into programming and projects, i.e.,
and shocks and keep mainstreaming.
functioning much the Climate-mainstreaming

same way Integrating climate concerns and adaptation responses into
relevant policies, plans, programs, and projects at the national,
sub-national, and local scales.
22 Photo: ©Max-O_TVsaeZNlE (unsplash)

RETURN TO CONTENTS
KEY TERMS
Risk is not just about the climate
MODULE 01
Risk - intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability
• Considers impacts of climate hazards will be
hazard, also about the socio-
mitigated by socioeconomic processes. ecological system – exposure to
• Extent of climate hazards will also be mitigated by the hazard and vulnerability of the
socioeconomic processes – our ability to mitigate system to the effects of the hazard
GHG emissions.
IPCC climate risk framework
IMPACTS
CLIMATE SOCIOECONOMIC
Vulnerability PROCESS
Natural Socioeconomic
Variability Pathway
Adaption and
Anthropogenic Mitigation
Climate
Hazards RISK Actions
Change
Governance
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
KEY TERMS
MODULE 01
Hazard - possible, future occurrence of natural or human induced physical events that may have adverse effects on
vulnerable and exposed elements.
IPCC CLIMATE RISK FRAMEWORK
IMPACTS
Variability Pathway
Adaption and
Climate
Change
Governance
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
MODULE 01
CLIMATE HAZARDS OF CONCERN
IN WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICA
Magnitude Extent Rate of change
• Floods • Sand or dust storms
• Droughts • Landslides
• Tropical cyclones and • Sea level rise

strong winds
• Temperature
• Storm surges changes
• Extreme temperatures • Changes to
• Forest fires
seasonal patterns
Africa as a whole has the highest mortality-related

vulnerability coefficients for droughts and very high
coefficients for cyclones and volcanoes. Drought and
floods account for 80 per cent of loss of life and 70 per
cent of economic losses linked to natural hazards (WB
2010).
https://daraint.org/risk-reduction-index/west-africa/
disaster-risk-in-west-africa/
Photo: ©Freepiks
MODULE 01
FORESIGHT TO
ADDRESS RISK
How do we
“DO” Foresight
Foresight is not conducted by a small group of
experts or academics but involves a number of
different groups of actors concerned with the
issue in question (European Foresight Platform,
n.d.). The results of a foresight exercise are
shared with a large audience from which
feedback is actively sought.
Furthermore, foresight is based on the principle Key Things to

that the problems faced cannot be entirely Keep in Mind
understood if reduced to one dimension. In foresight when we
Therefore, foresight provides a multidisciplinary look at trying to make
approach that captures realities in their future predictions –
totality with all the variables influencing but regional data and
them, regardless of the type (quantitative and information is sometimes
qualitative) (European Foresight Platform, n.d.). difficult – we have gaps
so what can we do?
Photo Top: ©Adobe Stock
MODULE 01
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
“Regarding inclusion of women, how best can

we ensure that women are actively engaged
and have equal power relations considering
the gender relations in WCA countries, for
example in terms of decision making on
access to agriculture finance? They are often
the majority in local discussions, but they do
not participate. How do we address this in
foresight?”
It takes specific attention to actively engage and get the input of women
into these processes. From a trainer’s/facilitator’s perspective, we often
work with both mixed gender groups as well as allow women to talk
among themselves and provide input. Sometimes in mixed groups you
may find that women get relegated to writing the cards or keeping notes.
STEP 1. Make sure women are present.
STEP 2. Encourage women to speak (e.g. call on them).
STEP 3. Create opportunities for women to work with other women

and lead facilitation and group exercises.
Photo: ©Axel Fassio (CIFOR)
KEY TERMS REMEMBER!
MODULE 01
Risk not just about the climate hazard,
Exposure - refers to the inventory of elements also about the socio-ecological system –
in an area in which hazard events may occur.
exposure to the hazard and vulnerability
of the system to the effects of the hazard.
IMPACTS
Variability Pathway
Adaption and
Climate
Change
Governance
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
UNPACKING CLIMATE EXPOSURE
MODULE 01
INFRASTRUCTURE ECOSYSTEM &
FARMING / AGRO- economic, social,
ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT
PEOPLE & cultural assets functions, services,
LIVELIHOODS resources
IMPACTS
Variability Pathway
Adaption and
Climate
Change
Governance
Exposure
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
KEY TERMS
MODULE 01
Vulnerability - the Sensitivity - the degree to which a system Adaptive capacity
propensity or predisposition of a is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by - the ability of systems,
system to be adversely affected climate variability or change. institutions, humans,
by an event (IPCC, 2014) and other organisms
Some elements may be quite robust and able to adjust to potential
Vulnerability is a function of to cope with/absorb quite large changes, damage, to take advantage
a system’s sensitivity, and its others are more sensitive and even a small of opportunities, or to
adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2014). change in climate can have large impact. respond to consequences.
BIOPHYSICAL SOCIAL VULNERABILITY

VULNERABILITY Example - social vulnerability to floods
Vulnerability
to climate Demographics Neighbourhood
change of characteristics
Health
Soils Risk perception
Coping capacity
Socio-economic
Ecosystems
Land Tenure
Habitats
Species
30 Photos: ©Adobe Stock

RETURN TO CONTENTS
MODULE 01
FUTURE IMPACTS ON CEREAL
PRODUCTIVITY
Net loss
overall in
agricultural
potential
Photo: ©Neil Palmer (CIAT)
CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENTS
Identify hotspots where exposure,

vulnerability and climate hazards intersect.
Ecological-economic models (Fischer et al, 2005)

Target hotspots for future planning
adaptation interventions.
YIELD RESPONSE MODELS
MODULE 01
4 staple
crops are
likely to
decline
Yield response models (Schlenker & Lobell, 2010)
THE SHIFT FROM CLIMATE RISK
MODULE 01
TO CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Photo: ©Freepiks
MODULE 01
FORESIGHT
Foresight is the process of looking to the past
and present to envision and prepare for different
futures, which then allow us to make strategic
decisions today.
Foresight is a set of tools and methods to practically

help us to move toward the future we want.
What does it mean to be

In times of rapid change, future-fit in such a challenging
growing complexity, and context?
critical uncertainty, responsible Attempting to predict or forecast
governance requires preparing the future is of limited benefit in
for the unexpected.” a world of high uncertainty. What
is highly valuable, however, is to
In times of rapid change and identify a number of different
uncertainty, responsible policy plausible future scenarios,
must take multiple future explore what impacts they could
possibilities into account. have and identify potential
Strategic foresight offers the implications for policies.
means to do that.”
34 Photo: ©Ivan Bandura (unsplash)
RETURN TO CONTENTS
REGIONAL FORESIGHT COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE
MODULE 01
Institutionalising
the use of strategic This regional
foresight requires CoP aims to
considering demand, embed foresight
capacity, institutions, capacity within
embeddedness, and
RESIGHT AMBASSADORS the WCA region
feedback FO
Better anticipation: to Policy innovation: to spur Future-proofing:

identify and prepare sooner for new thinking about the best policies to stress-test existing or
new opportunities and challenges and interventions to address these proposed strategies against
that could emerge in the future. opportunities and challenges. a range of future scenarios.
BUILDING FUTURE’S THINKING AND FORESIGHT FACILITATION CAPACITY
MODULE 01
The capacity of an organisation to do foresight depends on the quality of the futures thinking and
the ability of decision makers to use it.
As you build your foresight skill set you will influence in the region:
Systems: the governance architecture and Interventions: the particular activities, studies and
incentives that sustain a culture and practice processes during which the future is considered, and
of regular, useful, impactful foresight and its a strategic dialogue is undertaken with the purpose of
subsequent use in decision-making. better identifying emerging developments, producing
better strategies, or future-proofing an existing strategy.
A great facilitator values and respects the power of the group. They believe better
decisions; better ideas and better outcomes can be achieved when the intelligence in
the room has been leveraged. By combining their knowledge, skills and personality
in an effective way a top-notch meeting leader will be able to facilitate trust and
draw the best out the group.
Out of your silo
MODULE 01
WHAT MAKES AN EFFECTIVE
FORESIGHT FACILITATOR?
• Effective communication skills Everyone is Any idea is valid
•
•
•
Open to change
Keen observation skills
Demonstrates unwavering positivity
creative
• Authentic
•
A neutral
??
Maintains constant neutrality
•
!!
Energetic personality
•
•
Promotes constructive feedback
Asks versus tells
viewpoint
• Patient
https://facilitationfirst.com/top-10-characteristics-of-
an-excellent-group-facilitator/
A RADICALLY
CURIOUS MIND
Jim Dator
Traditional strategic
planning reinforces the
Don’t hold
cognitive bias of humans
that makes us simply
onto old ideas
extrapolate into the that are no
future what we know of longer needed
today and what we have
experienced in the past.
37 Gomez, 2021: Just Labs RETURN TO CONTENTS

QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
MODULE 01
What is cognitive bias?
Cognitive biases refer to systematic (predictable) deviation from rationality in
judgment or decision-making.
For example, a confirmation bias is when we only take in only information that
confirms our existing beliefs.
Oh, that’s me!
CHARACTERISTICS OF FUTURE THINKERS

Using foresight
tools and methods,
• Justifiably terrified and determined, and stubbornly optimistic. we can plan the
• Maintains a solid vision and has capacity to shift the storyline/narrative to transformational
one of purposeful shared meaning. change that will be
• Thinks in systems and sees the larger picture. needed to move
• Wants an accurate version of reality and takes responsibility for one’s destiny.
towards the future
we want.
• Open to possibilities and curious, intrigued with contradiction.
• Willing to test individual beliefs and cut through individual biases, always
ready to ask the next question.
• Enjoys interacting with new data and information, balancing the creative and
analytical.
• Grounded - their self worth is not tied to how right or wrong they are.
KEEP ASKING!
Are you addressing the
urgent issues, or only the
immediate issues?
MODULE 01
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
Strategic foresight is a
systematic way of looking
beyond the expected to
engage with uncertainty
and complexity”.
• To be a foresight practitioner CORE GUIDING

you need to get comfortable with
uncertainty and complexity.
QUESTIONS OF
FORESIGHT
• Strategic foresight is the ability to
create high-definition forward What seems to
views, and to apply them in an be happening?
organized way.
• Foresight is the process of looking What’s really

to the past and the present happening?
to envision and prepare for
different futures, which then allow What do
us to make strategic decisions today. we want to
happen?
• Anticipatory governance:
systematic embedding and What might
application of strategic foresight happen?
throughout the entire governance
architecture, including policy analysis, What do we
engagement, and decision-making. need to do?
39 Photo: ©Adobe Stock

RETURN TO CONTENTS
MODULE 01
UNDERSTANDING THE TERMINOLOGY
As with any field, foresight has its own terminology. Foresight is closely associated with the term ‘futures’. Futures refers to a wide academic and
professional field inclusive of research, methods and tools that can be used to develop foresight capacity (Conway, 2014).
Unlike strategic plans that typically include a short term vision of the future, foresight approaches use a longer time frame i.e. 10 to 20 years
or more, and thereby encourage thinking beyond our current conditions (Conway, 2014). It is important to note that foresight does not replace
existing planning methods, but can be used in conjunction with them, and thereby enhance the planning process.
Futuring - is the act, art, or science of identifying Foresight - involves structured tools, methods
and evaluating possible future events. and thinking styles to enable the capacity to consider
multiple futures and plan for them.
Future studies - explore how people can
navigate the past and use different methods to Strategic foresight - the combination of
think about and prepare for different possible foresight and strategic management.
futures (Forward Thinking Platform, 2014).
Strategic planning - tends to focus on producing
Futures thinking - describes the practice of tangible plans rather than on the thinking processes
thinking about the future in a structured way, that informs the plans (Conway, 2014).
and the methods and approaches that are used
to do so. Forecasting an estimate / best guess of what might
happen in the future but not a definitive prediction.
Scenario planning - is a technique of strategic
planning that relies on tools and technologies for Drivers are factors that cause change, thereby
managing the uncertainties of the future. affecting or shaping the future.
Regardless of the term used, those who work in this field use the future to inform action today and accept responsibly for future
generations (Conway, 2014).
MODULE 01
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
Is it important to reduce the definitions to exclusive ones, or could a mix be acceptable?
Are there many ways of doing foresight?
There are many different planning methods, understand what is happening (analysis) range of actions that will take our plan
however most planning methods take into and why it is happening (interpretation). from being an iterative one to being a
account the current state of affairs (input, transformative one.
analysis and interpretation) and planning steps In our planning stage, we clearly
based on an identified desired outcome (vision) articulate a vision and go deep into In response to the second question,
which considers what needs to happen, when, understanding the underlying causes there are different ways of doing
and by whom to achieve the outputs that lead and behaviours that may keep us from foresight so yes, you incorporate the
to the outcome. So, there is overlap and some achieving the vision. Prospection allows mix of methods that work best for your
foresight methods fit nicely into traditional us to look at multiple drivers and define situation and often that is dependent
planning approaches. When we do foresight, a number of plausible scenarios so upon the scope, the time allotted to the
we add more methods into the mix to better that our strategy takes into account the process, the people involved, etc.
The premise of
foresight is that the
future is still in the
making and can be
actively influenced
or even created.”
3 CORE TIME FRAMES IN A FORESIGHT PROCESS
MODULE 01
2.
Assessing 3.
1. what is
happening Anticipating
Back into in the the future
the past present
THREE PHASES OF STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
1. Collecting information 2. Interpreting data 3. Developing options for

or ‘scanning’ and formulating action
Scanning is an in-depth process versions of the future Amending plans, processes and
to produce evidence and Identifying emerging strategies and developing new
insights on historical, current strategic issues, causal ones that are future proofed.
and potential future insights. analysis, scenario planning.
MODULE 01
FORESIGHT
• Foresight is a set of tools and
methods to practically help us to
move toward the future we want.
• Foresight is not a prediction of THE

FUTURE, but rather a process of
imagining many different possible
futures.
FORESIGHT KEY STAGES

FORESIGHT - THE IMPORTANCE OF SUPPORTING EVIDENCE
MODULE 01
get in our way?
TYPES OF EVIDENCE
Scientific Participatory Qualitative data
evidence and consultative ‘who, which, what,
evidence when, where and why?’
Practice and Local and Quantitative data

implementation indigenous ‘how many’ ‘to what
informed knowledge extent’ or ‘how much’
evidence and stories
MODULE 01
Evidence
We define evidence as the integration of raw data constituting numbers, words, images,
and insights emerging from diverse knowledge sources.
Box plot
Testimonials
“FMNR improved
productivity on my farm
and improved nutrition for
my livestock” Data Maps
Photos
Radar chart Bar chart
EVIDENCE AND INCLUSION - LOCAL KNOWLEDGE AND LANGUAGE
MODULE 01
The importance of bringing local knowledge into foresight
Often we miss out on how local people Local knowledge is basically

are responding to climate challenges and indigenous knowledge based
resilience because responses because on proven practices over time or
of over reliance on science. We need to generationally passed information
capture lived experiences. from one generation to another.
Local Knowledge also referred to as indigenous knowledge from

the locals that have information being passed down to them from
generation to generation specifically about changes in weather patterns
and the methods they used for forecasting and building resilience.
MODULE 01
Consultation processes Capture and integrate
using participatory local knowledge –
tools dedicated local formalizing input from a
meetings in local language participatory consultation
using tools that are suitable process into stakeholder
for low literacy situations and engagement meetings – e.g.
potential future insights. grazing routes mapped onto
spatial development plans.
Local knowledge from

indigenous people is usually
proven as it has been
practiced for many years”
MODULE 01
Historical Systems
Visioning
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations
MODULE 01
Applying foresight processes to
influence policy and strategic planning
THERE IS NO STANDARDIZED WAY
OF DOING FORESIGHT
Static, Iterative, adaptive,

inflexible, linear flexible, participatory
Centralised and A more cross

silo decision departmental and
making coordinated approach
Distributed engagement
Hierarchical
from a wider system
Creation of meaningful
Which foresight methods public value
you choose depends on your

State-lead or driven Varied and inclusive
specific situation, and on the of non-state actors
objective(s) of the foresight in co-design and
process and the questions implementation
you want to answer
Operating in Operating meaningful

silos for vested partnerships around
interests common goals
APPLYING A FORESIGHT APPROACH IN STRATEGIC PLANNING
MODULE 01
Policy objective How foresight can help Questions to ask
Risk management • Build preparedness and resilience, • What happens if?

Objective: to understand what risks may emerge including contingency planning.
• What risks are arising?
or exist in different futures and the consequences for • Challenge existing assumptions and
achieving policy aims. avoid unpleasant future surprises.
Strategic planning for development • Explore possibilities, scenarios and • What future developments should
Objective: elaboration of national/ organisational options as an integral part of the we be aware of in planning and
visions and development plans, which reflect how standard strategic or policy planning resourcing to succeed?
interrelated policies and objectives might interact in process.
different futures.
Organisational purpose/ continuity • Build vision and gain buy-in under • Why are we here and how can
Objective: to develop and obtain agreement on an conditions of change. we achieve our goals in this very
inclusive purpose for an organisation in the context of different future?
a changing/uncertain environment.
Innovation • Identifies new angles, solutions, • What new opportunities are

Objective: to develop solutions to evolving or future resources or partnerships. Can be in arising?
response to groupthink.
challenges. • Are there opportunities to do
• Explores implications of new things differently?
disruptive technology.
• Scans the horizon for new innovation

opportunities.
MODULE 01
Policy objective How foresight can help Questions to ask
Sector/ community vision and engagement • Brings stakeholders together to think • What might our joint futures look
Objective: to develop and obtain agreement on collectively about an existing sector or like?
network.
an inclusive vision for an organisation, sector or • What can we collectively do to
community in the context of a changing/ uncertain • Unites a community around a move change in the desired
environment. common future vision. direction?
• Anticipates and shapes the future. • How can we collectively

strengthen our resilience or
respond?
Leadership • Build consensus or strategic • Our community needs hope,

Objective: to demonstrate leadership and build alignment. cohesion and a sense of action
today – can we use our future
consensus at a challenging historical moment. • Manage change management.
dialogue to build this?
• Resolve conflict resolution and build
peace through the transition to a new
normal – driving alignment, support
and accessing essential resources such
as finance.
Intergenerational equity • Ensures intergenerational equity. • What are the concerns of younger
Objective: to ensure no one is left behind and generations regarding the social,
• Assesses the impact of today’s policies
that decisions made today reflect the interests of environmental and economic
on future generations.
future generations or the future interests of current legacy they will inherit?
generations • What are their expectations of
consequences of policies, which
last far longer than electoral cycles,
particularly in the context of the
post COVID-19 recovery?
• How can different generations,

and their evolving interests, be
included in policymaking?
MODULE 01
“BE CLEAR AS TO
WHERE YOU ARE
GOING AND BE
FLEXIBLE AS TO HOW
TO GET THERE”
Foresight will equip
you with adaptable
skills and the ability to
assess, change and plan
for different futures.
INITIATING A FORESIGHT EXERCISE

FORESIGHT - KEY QUESTIONS, STEPS AND STAGES
get in our way?
MODULE 01
Historical Systems
Visioning
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations
INPUT
MODULE 01
Scope Theme or Geopolitical Understand Setting the Mapping the Influence
key topic boundary relevant timelines stakeholders and power
structures relations
and policies
SCOPE
What is the Method Where is it in the

framework and when
• One of the most important steps in
to apply it?
•
conducting foresight is defining the
purpose of the foresight exercise. Scope is part of the INPUT phase
of the framework.
•
•
This includes defining what your
foresight activity is intended to
QUESTION? This is when we are trying to
address and the “boundaries” What are we understand the context we are
within which you are working and intending to planning within and for. Therefore
envisioning a future. address? we define our scope at the start of
a foresight process.
KEY THEME OR TOPIC

Agri-food systems and climate resilience
TIP
Every time you do a foresight exercise you have to define your boundaries – around your
theme, geography and timeline.
MODULE 01
STEP 1
BREAKING DOWN YOUR THEME INTO PARTS
Agri-food systems example
WHAT ARE WE TAKING INTO

CONSIDERATION WITH AN
AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM
REFLECTIONS AND GUIDING
QUESTIONS
Commercial
and smallholder
How important is it to differentiate GDP
farmers
between direct and indirect drivers? contribution Livestock

and
fisheries
To really make a transformative change in the Employment

system, one must look beyond the direct drivers
(e.g. land management on land degradation)
and look at options to intervene in what Extension
indirectly influences that driver (e.g. tree and services
Access to
land tenure, information and awareness, need inputs
for short term production, and mindsets).

Food
storage Market
While we will not get too detailed in this course access
on differentiating between direct and indirect
Crop
drivers, we will be looking at systems as well production Production
systems
as carrying out causal analyses to unpack the
underlying causes which can be direct and
indirect.
AGRICULTURE
Photo: ©Sonja Leitner (ILRI)
MODULE 01
ECONOMIC TECHNOLOGY
WHAT ARE WE
TAKING INTO Communications
Infrastructure Finance CONSIDERATION & Technology
WITH AN AGRI-
FOOD SYSTEM Insurance
Markets Investment and Risk
Wealth Climate
Trade Distribution Commercial Information
and smallholder
farmers
GDP
contribution Livestock
and
fisheries
Employment
Value
addition
Extension
services
Access to
inputs
Food
storage Market
access
Crop
production Production
systems
AGRICULTURE
MODULE 01
ECONOMIC TECHNOLOGY
WHAT ARE WE
WITH AN AGRI-
Wealth Climate
and smallholder
farmers
GDP
and
fisheries
Employment
Value
Value
addition POLITICAL
addition
Extension
services Governance
Access to
inputs Regulations
Tenure
Food
storage Market
access
Crop
systems
ENVIRONMENTAL
AGRICULTURE Tourism Energy
Natural Capital
MODULE 01
ECONOMIC TECHNOLOGY
WHAT ARE WE
WITH AN AGRI-
Wealth Climate
and smallholder
farmers
GDP
and
fisheries
Employment
Value
Value
addition POLITICAL
addition
Extension
services Governance
Access to
inputs Regulations
Tenure
Food
storage Market
SOCIO-CULTURAL access
Crop
systems
Population Demographics ENVIRONMENTAL
Labour AGRICULTURE Tourism Energy

Health availablity
Education Natural Capital
WHAT ARE WE TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION
WITH AN AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM
MODULE 01
Communications
Economic
•
& Technology
•
Infrastructure
Insurance •
•
GDP growth
•
Access
•
Roads
and Risk
•
Dams
•
Wealth distribution
•
Finance
• Reducing agriculture
Cell phone usage
•
Income, main (radio communities)
•
Ports (trends, Access to finance
•
risk
•
income earners Digital ICT in extension
•
plans, status)
•
Rural financing
•
Social safety nets
•
Employment
•
Export zones Credit loans for
Input insurance
Sectoral distribution
•
Industrialisation agriculture
trends/plans (including high Agriculture subsidies Landscape Climate
value commodities) Information
• •
Planning
•
Tenure Weather data
•
Land use systems
(trends related Access/
Commercial to agriculture, distribution
Investment Trade and smallholder
• • farmers rangeland
management)
•
Investment corridors Trade agreements, GDP
arrangements and contribution Livestock
Government/private and
flows
•
sector investment plans Governance
•
fisheries
•
Adaptation investors
•
Regulatory structures
Identified investment Employment
Regional and continental
Value
priorities bodies: mandate, level
addition
•
Markets of operation
Key commodity
Extension
•
markets
services
Access to rural Access to
inputs Tourism
•
market systems
•
Market Growth
access
•
Population Food Trends
Demographics storage Market
•
Employment contribution
• •
Socio-cultural access
•
Demand and sourcing
•
Migration
Pastoralist, chiefdoms
Development plans
•
Growth Crop
•
structures
•
Age systems
•
Community-led initiatives
Urbanisation Women, youth and
marginalised groups in
•Natural Capital
•
agriculture Water
AGRICULTURE
•
Soil
•
Forestry
Energy
Labour
availablity • Soil and water
•
Access
•
Education conservation initiatives
• •
Health
•
Electrification
•
Crop failures
•
Rural education access Nutrition sensitive
•
Demand growth
•
priorities
•
Degradation
•
Literacy levels
Access to off grid
•
Environmental awareness Diet transitions Germination
(education programs, Preferential foods solar technology
outreach initiatives)
LEARNING
MODULE 01
EXERCISE
Write down your thoughts on BOUNDARY
what makes up, affects, or is
Setting the Geopolitical Boundary
affected by, the system at the core
of your theme. Group the external High-level gathering of data, knowledge, and evidence is
systems and drivers of change important in understanding the context of the chosen theme. The
according to categories for example next step of the scope method, STEP 2, is to set the geopolitical
technology, economic, political, boundary. It is important from the outset to clearly define the
environmental, or socio-cultural. scale of the intended foresight exercise.
Highlight key dimensions and Are we zooming in to a specific project zone, or even a
drivers related to pest and disease? department in a Ministry, or are we scaling up and looking at a
broader system with multiple layers and actors?
At what scale does the theme occur i.e. is it at a global,

continental, regional, national, district or project level?
It is also important to understand the dynamics of the

scale that you are working at, to do this you need to
know what is contained within your selected boundary,
this information can be split into categories such as:
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS • Geo-politically (e.g. geographical situation of a country
relative to other countries (and to the sea) topography).
How do you influence the baseline analysis?
What are your entry points? • Socio-culturally (e.g. homogenous or heterogenous

populations, rural-urban divide, migration).
It is important to engage a wide range of stakeholders
so that you have access to as much information as • Environmentally (e.g. diverse farming systems, natural
possible. Analyze the information you have available, resources availability, climatic conditions).
and then identify key gaps for additional research.
• Economically (e.g. roads, statistics related to GDP, poverty,
inequality, transport).
How can we manage unreliable data/information/archives in the WCA region?
Reliable data is an issue not just in Africa but globally. Ground level weather station numbers
MODULE 01
have declined considerably. New methods using remote sensing in combination with ground
level weather data is common. Some websites pull together household datasets from around
sub-Saharan Africa. Other options include crowdsourcing and alternative big data techniques.
STEP 2 UNDERSTANDING DIVERSITY

– FARMING SYSTEMS AT A
WHAT SCALE ARE WE CONSIDERING
REGIONAL SCALE
• Regional • District
• National • Project zone
LEARNING
EXERCISE
To understand the dynamics within your geo-

political boundary, print out or draw a map of
the area covered by your theme.
1. Identify characteristics that are relevant to your theme.
2. Use information sources such as websites, knowledgeable

persons, or books to provide detail on the characteristics
of the area in question.
3. Add this information to the map so that you can visualise it.
MODULE 01
FARMING SYSTEM
TION, FAMILY COMP
IC LOCA OSIT
C T ERIST I SH /TREE SYSTEM SYS ION
A RA S TO CK/F TEM (AG
H IV E ILY L A B C E, G
R C P /L FA M O UR OM
P ON END
LDE , CRO A L L O C AT I ON EN
O ZE TS ER),
SEH D SI AN FA
U ER D R
HO E H AC M A
M SIZ TI
V HOUSEHOLD
N
FI E A R
D S
CROP/LIVESTOCK/FISH/
LD
IT
PRODUCTION
IE
TREE PRODUCTION AND AND DECISION
DECISION PROCESSES PROCESSES
Child rearing,
Livestock care and
Management
Output (milk, education
decisions
crop-livestock-fish- manure, fiber)
tree, productive
inputs (fertility,
Crop/grass
species, varieties,
output Healthcare
pest management,
(grass, crops,
water harvesting,
plant residues)
intercropping,
grazing, feed, family
or hired labor by age,
gender, experience, Tree outputs
information, etc.) (fruits, timber, Social-cultural
nutrients, activities
fodder)
Land health,
nutrients,
water cycle, Food preparation,
Aquaculture
biological consumption,
outputs (fish)
diversity, nutrition, waste
climate
Farm products and losses, OUTCOMES OUTCOMES Economic and social

income, environmental impact well being, quality of life
QUESTION?
Where do knowledge and data management
fits within the systems diagram?
MODULE 01
UNDERSTANDING RELEVANT STRUCTURES AND POLICIES
STEP 3
Who is key to planning and decision-making and what level(s) is relevant to our objective?
Climate change and agriculture related visions and policies occur at and transcend multiple scales
(global, continental, WCA, member state, provincial and local).
LEARNING EXERCISE
This means thinking about your theme and

identifying the institutions and key players in
planning and decision making, and at what level(s)
(global, continental, regional, national, provincial,
project level) they are relevant to your objective.
1. This step may require further information gathering using search

engines or knowledgeable persons. It is important to pay attention to
the publishing date, to determine the most recent policy and structural
information.
2. Draw the different institutional levels on a piece of paper and indicate

with arrows how they feed into each other. Annotate the diagram with
information on key players such as those involved in decision making or
policy implementation.
RELEVANT STRUCTURES AND POLICIES
MODULE 01
GLOBAL VISION for climate
AND development
Paris Agreement ECOWAS

Climate Change
AU Agenda Strategy (2050)
SDG’s
(2063)
COUNTRY
Climate-specific VISION Development
goals and plans goals and plans
National Green
NDCs NAMAs level growth
NAPAs
goals
NDPs
Post-COVID
19 green
Sectoral Climate growth
targets Bill Sectoral recovery
targets plans
Sub-
national
2030 level 2030
Long-term Climate-
resilient development
2050 / 2060
POLICIES AND STRUCTURES RELEVANT TO PEST AND DISEASE MANAGEMENT IN
WCA EXAMPLE
MODULE 01
GLOBAL LEVEL GOALS
WHO Agreement on Sanitary and Phytxosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement)
The International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) - Governed by the Commission on
Phytosanitary Measures
International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures (ISPMs)
Strategic Framework for the International Plant Protection Convention
(IPPC) 2020–2030
CONTINENTAL LEVEL GOALS
Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)

2014 Malabo Declaration Assembly/AU/Decl.7 (II)
African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) 2019
Phyto-Sanitary Convention for Africa October 1992
Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Policy Framework for Africa 2019
Revised African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources 2016
Agreement for the Establishment of the African Risk Capacity (ARC) Agency 2012
REGIONAL LEVEL GOALS
Disaster Risk
Management Strategy ECOWAS pesticide, pest and phytosanitary
agreements and policies
Regional locust
emergency action plan
NATIONAL LEVEL - POLICY EXAMPLES

National legislation
National emergency response/contingency plans
65 Species specific contingency plans RETURN TO CONTENTS

MODULE 01
SETTING THE TIMELINE
STEP 4
Foresight planning is often based on the timelines of
strategic plans or policies.
Which existing plans and strategies should we
base our timeline on?
QUESTION?
If your client has not specified a timeframe – how
do you go about choosing a timeframe?
Look at regional and global visions, most are 10, 30 and

50 year visions. A starting point would be to work within
these timelines.
TIP
INPUT STAGE – we are still at the start of or foresight exercise – we are understanding the
context
This is where bringing in more data, knowledge and evidence is important
Photo: ©Freepiks
AU Agenda 2063
TIMELINE
MODULE 01
UN SDGs ECOWAS Vision 2050
AU Climate
Change Strategy
ECOWAS
Climate
ECOWAS Strategy
NDCs
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
PAST PRESENT FUTURE

FUTURE
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS

How do we make political leaders understand and be comfortable with developing strategies and
policies that do not have to come to an end at the end of a presidential tenure?
How do you influence policy makers to agree on a longer policy plan?
It is key to invite policy makers to stakeholder events to get their buy-in, but to also have them present so they can
listen to the other experts in the room and see the importance of integrating foresight analysis into their planning.
It is also equally as crucial to communicate effectively with policy makers – showing them why it is important to
integrate the research findings into the policies – what happens if they do not. Use language that policy makers are
familiar with. Demonstrate how it can support their development plans and longer term visions for the country.
MODULE 01
How do you manage
stakeholder engagement
STAKEHOLDER where there is no project
setting and attendance varies
MAPPING according to personal will? The
What is it stakeholders keep changing
Mapping of individuals, and there is no continuity?
groups and organizations
In West Africa, CCAFS set up
that have a stake in the
a science policy stakeholder
topic or issue of focus.
platform and embedded it in a
Why we use it national structure. It was funded,
To identify stakeholders but the allocation was minimal.
that are present and those Those involved had to produce
that need to be engaged. Annual Work Plans, this kept the
momentum going. It is important
to use a national organisation to
STEP 5 embed the work within and to take
to it on.
Understanding the
stakeholders through a However, if this is not possible,
mapping exercise. encourage attendance by getting
people to make a commitment.
A Who are the actors in
Make the sessions invigorating so
our theme (agri-food
that people want to attend. Use
system).
a formal social networking tool
B How do they relate or surveys to see why people are
and influence one disinterested, interpret the data,
another. and re-evaluate your sessions.
MODULE 01
LEARNING
EXERCISE
Participatory stakeholder mapping

For the stakeholder mapping activity, you need a white board,
or Post-It notes and a large piece of paper. Carry out as a
group activity at a workshop or meeting List stakeholders
REFLECTIONS AND GUIDING related to the topic using different coloured pens.
QUESTIONS
Draw each stakeholders as a separate circle with the size of
What is the ideal stakeholder composition? the circle showing perceived importance Use lines with arrows
between circles to show connections and inter-relationships
It is most important to clarify your theme and the between stakeholders that interact and label the relationships.
type of system (e.g. community production for food Use colours to illustrate the driver of the relationship.
security, policy development for increasing green jobs)
you are working on. You can use system mapping
and stakeholder mapping (Module 2) to identify key
actors and look at causal relationships around key
issue areas to identify key stakeholders to be involved
in implementation. We are not inviting stakeholders
just to have many actors in the room, we can work
to understand those stakeholders that will be more
strategic in terms of representation.
Bringing stakeholders to the table has its own transaction

costs, but if you can get strategic stakeholders, what we
do know from a trainer’s/facilitator’s vantage point, is the
more diverse the stakeholders, the more perspectives
and the more creativity. Think about the perspectives
needed and the potential relationships you can be
building in the foresight process.
MODULE 01
STAKEHOLDERS IN OUR THEME
REGIONAL
FINANCIAL ECONOMIC
COMMERCIAL/ INSTITUTIONS COMMUNITIES
PRIVATE
PLAYERS GOVERNMENT
GRASSROOTS/
COMMUNITY-
BASED
ORGANISATIONS MULTILATERAL
ORGANISATIONS
CIVIL SOCIETY MEDIA AND

JOURNALISTS
MANAGERS SCIENTIFIC
OF LOCAL COMMUNITIES
RESOURCES & & ACADEMIA
LABOURERS
KEY QUESTIONS?
When mapping stakeholders how do we make sure we include all relevant
stakeholders including marginalized groups?
MODULE 01
ROLES OF STAKEHOLDERS
REGIONAL
FINANCIAL ECONOMIC
PRIVATE
PLAYERS GOVERNMENT
GRASSROOTS/
COMMUNITY-
BASED Role Role
ORGANISATIONS MULTILATERAL
Project finance, Facilitate regional
ORGANISATIONS
Role understanding development Role
Partnerships, long-term and integration, Policy
innovation, economic investment coordination, development,
perspectives, risk, market regional legislation,
commercial resources solutions leadership, and leadership,
agenda setting strategic direction
Role
Role
Local, on-
Transnational
the-ground
development
perspectives,
cooperation,
indigenous
technical
knowledge and
guidance,
wisdom, voice of
CIVIL SOCIETY MEDIA AND financial
the people
JOURNALISTS support,
Role MANAGERS SCIENTIFIC transnational
Advocacy, information OF LOCAL COMMUNITIES Role
decision
sharing, awareness RESOURCES & & ACADEMIA Advocacy,
making, agenda
creation, advisory, LABOURERS information
Role setting
capacity building, Role sharing,
Knowledge
network building, Livelihoods and awareness
generation,
change agents, voice income generation, building,
evidence-based
of the people, affected local farming practices alternative
information,
and interested people and knowledge, perspectives
bridging the
sustainable science-policy
management, and interface
exploitation of natural
resources
I am working with smallholder
MODULE 01
UNDERSTANDING RELATIONSHIPS farmers in producing vegetables
BETWEEN STAKEHOLDERS for the export market. How
do I go about the stakeholder
Who is working with whom? engagement process?
What is being exchanged?
Firstly, you need to consider all levels
What are the power dynamics? of institutions and policies for the
Who is missing? export market- this would include the
international level right down to the
local level. Start off by brainstorming
stakeholders, even if they may not
all seem relevant at the start. The
stakeholders can be narrowed down
as you progress through the foresight
process.
Ask yourself who the key

stakeholders are e.g. the private
sector (potentially large- and small-
scale commercial farmers), financial
sector and donors. Next you need to
understand the relationships between
them, the levels of influence and
power dynamics. To communicate with
farm workers, work with established
coalitions and unions. Do not forget to
consider who is not represented such
as vulnerable women, children, and
those with disabilities. Remember that
a stakeholder map is dynamic, it will
change as your project unfolds.
MODULE 01
Youth have a renewed
interest in intergenerational
justice, frustrated by the state
of the world that has been left Lastly, it is important
behind for them and future to understand and
generations. Additionally, with map influence. The
the growing youth population exercise should
in WCA it is going to be document vested
important to engage with them interests and power
and receive their input for dynamics.
inclusive decision-making.
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS

When would it be best to use the foresight tools we are learning about, in terms of
determining the role of youth in future food systems and building resilience towards
climate change?
We are going to continue to stress youth and their role in climate resilient agriculture as we go along. Youth
unemployment and youth as consumers are important drivers in the agricultural food system and the
impact of climate change. There are several options that come to mind. It is as important as ever to have youth both
involved in local and national decision making and of course involved in looking at their opportunities as we define
our vision, our plausible scenarios, and the transformational elements that can increase their involvement and
solution finding.
As you can imagine, developing green jobs and entrepreneurial opportunities that contribute to adaptation and
mitigation to climate change will need to be operationalised and they will need to be done in a transformative
way. So, determining the roles of youth in building resilient and sustainable food systems will be spread across our
analysis, interpretation, plan, prospection, reflection, and strategy stages. The opportunities should start to emerge
particularly in the last four stages.
73 Photo: ©student-climate-change-protests-AFP/Getty Images

RETURN TO CONTENTS
INDICATIVE STAKEHOLDER GROUPS
MODULE 01
GOVERNMENT
SECTORS /
COORDINATING
BODY
Civil society Consumers
Women and
Commercial/
youth groups
private
player
Grass roots and

Scientific community
community CULTURE HEALTH based
and organizations
academia AGRICULTURE
EDUCATION
WATER COORDINATING
BODY MINING Local
Multi-lateral authorities
organizations INDUSTRY
ENVIRONMENT
ENERGY
NGOs
Sub-national
Local
Media and advocates
journalists
Managers of Financial
local resources Marginalized Institutions
& labourers groups
WHO ELSE NEEDS TO BE THERE?
MODULE 01
REGIONAL LOCAL
FINANCIAL ECONOMIC ADVOCATES
PRIVATE
PLAYERS GOVERNMENT
POLICY
CHAMPIONS
GRASSROOTS/
COMMUNITY-
BASED
MULTILATERAL
ORGANISATIONS
ORGANISATIONS
WHO ELSE
NEEDS TO BE AT
THE DECISION-
MAKING TABLE?
WOMAN
CIVIL MEDIA AND

SOCIETY JOURNALISTS
MANAGERS SCIENTIFIC YOUTH
OF LOCAL COMMUNITIES
RESOURCES & & ACADEMIA
LABOURERS
LEARNING EXERCISE
Review initial stakeholder mapping
Who is missing? What key questions would you ask

How would you do the mapping? the stakeholders?
MODULE 01
INFLUENCE AND POWER RELATIONSHIPS
What is it
Analysis and interpretation of the interest, power and relationships of and
between stakeholders.
Why we use it
When developing stakeholder engagement and management plans, it is
REFLECTIONS AND important to understand levels and kinds of influence among stakeholders
that may affect the relationships.
GUIDING QUESTIONS
STEP 6
Stakeholder mapping is a
continual process Stakeholder interest – power grid
For this analysis, stakeholders would be asked the level of their engagement
As the foresight exercise evolves
in the topic or theme of interest and how much they influence the allocation of
from the design document
resources, policy development, implementation of programs and information
stakeholder mapping, so
dissemination. This can be done through surveys in workshops and meetings or
too might the stakeholders.
through interviews or over email. This information informs the interest-power grid.
Mapping stakeholders and
updating your engagement
plan allows as the foresight
exercise continues helps ensure
that relevant stakeholders are
included.
Different
Stakeholder engagement runs
stakeholders may
across all phases of the foresight relate to different
framework. policy areas and
may differ at
different levels
MODULE 01
LEARNING
EXERCISE
Stakeholder interest – power grid Example
Using this grid, place each stakeholder in a quadrant based on

their survey response, Social Network Analysis if done and/or Important / Important /
Secondary Secondary audience
the team’s knowledge.
audience • People to convince
• People to • Engage closely and
convince influence
High
High
• Engage closely • Aim to increase
and influence level of interest
• Aim to increase • Engage later
IMPORTANT KEY PLAYERS level of interest
• Keep satisfied
POWER
• Engage later
• Keep satisfied
POWER Major sceptics / Affected /

Least important Secondary audience
• Aim to increase • Change facilitators
Low
level of interest • Secure interest
LEAST AFFECTED
• Inform later • Inform now
IMPORTANT • Monitor • Keep Informed
Low INTEREST High

Low
Low INTEREST High
MODULE 01
LEARNING EXERCISE
Who needs to take ownership for implementing

the outcomes of your foresight exercise?
Who will make the ‘strategy’ phase get implemented?
Who are your strategic stakeholders?
REFLECTIONS AND Who are you trying to influence?
GUIDING QUESTIONS Who is going to influence your process?
Any other stakeholder

analysis tools or
processes you have
experienced or done? KEY QUESTIONS?
How can we effectively communicate
Why were these tools to policy makers the importance of
or approaches useful or embedding foresight analysis into
successful? policy planning?
How might you review

your initial stakeholder
identification process
based on these tools How many people are engaged in deciding the scope?
and to fit your foresight
thematic focus? How wide do we cast the net in the participants in
our foresight process?
Are there actors we often overlook that should be
included?
sectoral and Systems Linkages
Understanding Trends and Multi-
MODULE 02
MODULE 02
Understanding
Trends and
Multi-sectoral and
Systems Linkages
MODULE 02
MODULE 01
MODULE 02
OVERVIEW OF MODULE TWO
WHAT WILL
YOU LEARN?
Module 2 covers the analysis
and interpretation stages of
the foresight process. The
analysis stage is important
Scope for a for understanding ‘what is
foresight exercise happening’ by using trends
Establish
analysis, horizon scanning
Introduce learning goals and evidence gathering.
foresight Trends Analysis The interpretation stage
then investigates ‘why it is
happening’.
The interpretation stage

incorporates systems
mapping as well as
cross-sectoral and multi-
stakeholder linkages.
Throughout the module,
examples of application of
Learning Practical the foresight methods in the
reflections Practical Horizon exercise context of climate-resilient
exercise scanning agricultural development in
the WCA region are provided.
LEARNING EXERCISE

MODULE 02
Test Your Learning of the Foresight Framework
Before diving into Module 2, test your understanding
of foresight and information provided in Module 1 by
answering the questions below:
What is your understanding of foresight and how do you define it?
Foresight is: ‘Anticipating the future and planning to mitigate risks.’
‘How one thinks about and anticipates the future.’ ‘The appropriate use of data to predict future scenarios.’
‘An estimation of best-case scenarios.’
‘Helpful with future predictions.’
‘Planning tools that help create clarity of sight into the future.’
‘A system used to establish how to move towards a desired
‘A strategic approach for approaching future scenarios.’ future.’
ANALYSIS PHASE – WHAT IS HAPPENING?

The analysis stage of the foresight process
follows on from the input stage. The
analysis stage deepens our understanding QUESTION?
of what is happening around us in terms As this stage continues to
of influential historical events and key explore the chosen context
trends. Essentially, this stage involves or theme, the key question
the analysis of environmental scanning remains the same as for
results to determine major change shifts the input stage:
that need to be explored to identify
What is happening?
potential strategic implications (Thinking
Futures, 2020).
MODULE 02
Historical Systems
Visioning
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations
ANALYSIS

MODULE 02
Historical Horizon
trends scanning
analysis
HISTORICAL TRENDS ANALYSIS

What is the Method
• Collecting information on drivers
and trends and identifying which
are most critical for consideration
within the given topic.
• Trend analysis is a method that

involves reviewing historical data
to understand potential trends Where is it in the
going forwards and what this framework and when
QUESTION?
means for shaping the future. to apply it?
•
How would you
brief the research Trends analysis is part of
around trend the ANALYSIS phase of the
analysis? framework.
• This is when we are trying to

The purpose of a foresight exercise is review key trends in relation
to the scope we have set for
to generate new insight and therefore the foresight exercise.
cannot be produced rapidly by simply
• Foresight planning involves
synthesising existing analysis identifying possible futures
based on key uncertainties
and trends of the past.
MODULE 02
TRENDS ANALYSIS
Key Steps
Historical analysis
Developing timelines
KEY TERMS
Review existing
data Trend - is a “general tendency” or direction of a movement/change over
• Desk study
time e.g. Increasing erratic seasonal rainfall patterns.
• Statistical models
Megatrend - is a long-term change that affects governments, societies
• Key informant and economies permanently over a long period of time. e.g. growing youth
interviews population across African continent.
• Surveys
• Workshop discussion
Analysing trends and drivers

of possible future contexts.
QUESTION?
Challenging received wisdom
What are trends?
(e.g. trends will continue,
What is historical trends? but also understanding the
What is horizon systemic drivers of the past).
Scanning?
Examining interdependencies.
How to organizing trends
into major categories? Should be done along
What are the analysing different time horizons e.g.
key questions? 1/5/15 year(s).
HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

MODULE 02
Decide on your timelines and key Develop a plan for
focus for your historical review your trend analysis
Key people to
interview
Sources to
review
Access to
research and
previous work
• Historical analysis
REFLECTIONS AND • Developing timelines
GUIDING QUESTIONS • Review existing data

• Desk study
Politics VS climate change in
Africa which is the greatest issue
• Statistical models
when thinking of the future? • Key informant

interviews
More youth are needed in politics • Surveys
in Africa. There is a need for
young, energised people who
• Workshop
discussion
want to change their futures and
the futures of their children.
85 Photo: ©Adobe Stock

RETURN TO CONTENTS
MODULE 02
LEARNING EXERCISE
Think about your theme and what your time frame should be.
QUESTIONS
Consider how valuable data from 10, 20, 50 years ago would be. & ANSWERS
Think about when you were unpacking your theme in Who should do a trends
Module 1, what drivers of change did you identify? analysis – a specialist?
It depends, sometimes no data

Use this information to develop topics for your
is prepared before the workshop
timelines. Draw a line on a piece of paper, the first marker on
is held. From experience, it is
the line should denote the furthest point in time that you need
preferential to prepare data
to revisit. The last marker should be the present year. Based beforehand as it allows people
on how far back in time you want to go, split the timeline into to get involved in the analysis
sections e.g. decades. Use information gathered from books, and discuss findings, which is
knowledgeable persons, journals, and reputable websites to valuable to the process. If the scale
populate the timelines. Annotate the timelines with information of the analysis is small e.g. district
on the scale or magnitude of the occurrence e.g. did the disease level, it can be beneficial to meet
outbreak cause the loss of 2 lives or 2000? with community members prior
to contracting a specialist, as the
Use the timelines given below to guide you. Now study community input can assist in
your timelines, what are they showing you? Are there any obvious focusing the analysis.
patterns or signals of change?
MODULE 02
HISTORICAL TIMELINE
Between 1970 – 2021 focused on climate and agriculture related trends and events
HUMAN HEALTH – Example from Southern Africa
1978 First
cholera outbreak 2014 Ebola 2020-
in DRC outbreak in 2021
2007-2009 DRC Covid 19
1976 First 1976 Ebola Ebola outbreak in Pandemic
Ebola outbreak outbreak in DRC DRC
in DRC
1973 First 2001 Cholera 2008-2009 2016 Yellow

cholera outbreak 1994 Cholera outbreak in Cholera outbreak in fever outbreak in
in Mozambique outbreak in DRC South Africa Zimbabwe Angola and DRC
2021
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2012 Ebola 2019

outbreak in DRC Measles
outbreak in
2010-2014 DRC
Measles outbreak 2017-2018

in DRC Ebola outbreak
in DRC
DROUGHT – Example from Southern Africa

MODULE 02
1986-1987 1997-1998
drought in most drought in most
1967 severe drought parts of Southern parts of Southern
in most parts of Africa 1994-1995 Africa
Southern Africa worst drought in 2005-2016
1981-1983 WCA history severe drought in
drought in most WCA region 2018-
1968-1973 parts of Southern
drought in most parts Africa, particularly 1991-1992 2001-2003 2020
of Southern Africa, Zimbabwe and severe drought in severe drought in drought in WCA
but high rainfall in Mozambique Southern Africa WCA region region
DRC
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2002 DRC
Mount Nyiragongo
volcanic eruption
2003-2004
severe drought in
WCA region
Land Use Change in West Africa 1975-2013

Natural Hazards Affecting Sub-
Saharan Countries 2000-2019
MODULE 02
LEARNING
Violent Events – West Africa 1997-2020
EXERCISE
Foresight Relevant to the Regional
Application on Pest and Diseases
In working groups. Review and organize available
evidence. For example, for the topic of pest and diseases,
collect key evidence for trends on climate change and pest
outbreaks in the region. Reflect what are the key trends
you are seeing. Identify any other evidence that is missing.
It is very helpful to create posters and have

these displayed around the room to create
an ‘evidence wall’ (see images as examples).
Participants can then easily look at the evidence
and identify what is missing and any key trends.
FALL ARMYWORM
Introduction
QUESTION?
The Fall Armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda)
is an insect-pest which causes major damage to many
economically important crops, such as maize, rice,
sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, vegetables and cotton.
FAW causes considerable yield losses in maize and

in other key staple cereal crops, threatening food
security and the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of
In your lifetime
smallholder farmers and consumers. It is estimated
that, for 12 African countries alone, FAW could cause
losses of 8.3 million to 20.6 million metric tonnes of
maize annually, equivalent in value to USD 2.5 billion
name a trend
to USD 6.2 billion, and enough to feed 40 million to
100 million people.
FAO. 2020. The Global Action for Fall Armyworm
you have
Control: Action framework 2020–2022. Working
together to tame the global threat. Rome.
Reference: https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9252en
witnessed?
Reference: https://www.cabi.org/isc/abstract/20187200544
FAW was first reported in Africa in 2016 and is now

confirmed in 45 African countries. By January 2018,
the armyworm had been confirmed in Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic,
Cote d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana,
Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and
Togo.
In the moth stage of its life cycle, FAW can spread

locally between fields or across large areas quickly
(100km/day), using winds aloft to move from one area
to another. This mobility has allowed FAW to become a
new global pest in the space of four years, and establish
itself across Africa in a wide range of environmentally
suitable areas.
1
AICCRA_CORAF Poster_Foresight Case Study_01.indd 1 2022/10/06 17:14
MODULE 02
Planners must ‘Immerse themselves in the
periphery’, since events that are outside of
an organization’s focal interests may have
the greatest impact on its survival.
*Haeckel, 2004 & Neugarten, 2006
Photo: ©Charlie Pye-Smith
REFLECTIONS
Don’t rush the trend

analysis! HORIZON SCANNING
Have an authentic and
deep scan. framework and when
• Undertake rigorous analysis of
to apply it?
Question data you can’t trends to explore their impacts.
• Horizon scanning is part of
find – e.g. investment
and budgets.
• Horizon scanning is the process the ANALYSIS phase of the
of examining diverse information framework
sources to identify potential
Thinking of a signals of change and future • It is complementary to
preparedness plan for impacts from trends identified. trends analysis as a method
pests and diseases – and deepens a trend
thinking how critical to • Exploring how these trends and analysis to scan horizons
look across the trends. developments might combine for emerging issues and
and what impact they might analysing their potential
have. impacts.
MODULE 02
What is Horizon Scanning
Scanning for weak
• The process of examining diverse signals must be
information sources to identify distinguished
potential signals of change and
from searching
future impacts from trends
for information.
identified.
In searching, the
• Applied at the beginning of a research scope is fairly
forward-looking activity is applied well defined, often
for identifying “things to come,” based on an analyst’s
GUIDING often new science and technology.
particular interests
QUESTIONS
• Helps identify emerging issues, and expertise on a
weak signals of change and events topic. Scanning looks
What seems to that could lead to changes in for new insights
be happening? behaviour, strategy or policy. outside an analyst’s
• Identifies early signs of
existing mental
What’s really model. In scanning,
happening? change not yet on the policy radar
or addressed adequately. the foresight
practitioner does not
What do
we want to
• Relies on collective sense-making necessarily know
sessions of the scanned signals
happen? what they are looking
and validation through further
research.
for, hence the scope is
What might broad, often shedding
happen? light on previously
The European Commission uncharted unknowns.
What do we
need to do? uses horizon scanning K.E. Cuhis, 2019. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.
com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.23
detect emerging issues that
could have significant future
implications for policy. Photo: ©Freepiks
MODULE 02
Decision criteria for conducting a
HORIZON SCANNING scan or reviewing the policy impact
Key Steps Credibility: Is the source reputable? Are there
What do we want Summarise trends into
confirmations elsewhere?
to detect? major categories Novelty: Is the hit new? Or has it been widely
reported?
New trends: Non-obvious or
Analyse key Likelihood: What are the chances that the hit will
very recently identified trends
questions occur, and that it will amount to something?
likely to weigh significantly
on future events (e.g. virtual Impact: Will it change the future? If so, how big a
working mode). change will that be?
New drivers of change:

New conditions that will impact
how certain social, natural
or technological parameters
will evolve (e.g. shift towards
renewable energy).
Weak signals: Small events

or novelties that, combined
with other existing elements,
could lead to significant
changes (e.g. low rates of
school attendance).
QUESTION?
How can I access
Discontinuities: Abrupt data for horizon
changes that either stop scanning that is
certain existing phenomena, not available to QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
introduce major changes in the public?
their dynamics or generate What questions do we need to respond to?
novel phenomena (e.g. global
What is important to know about the trends for
pandemic).
developing climate resilient agricultural livelihoods?
CATEGORIES FOR
UNDERSTANDING

MODULE 02
TRENDS LEARNING EXERCISE
S Social
Write STEEP vertically on a piece of paper. What trends can you think
of that are relevant to your theme that fit into these categories?
T
Are there trends which fall into more than one category?
Thinking of the categories, which one are you most likely to omit when
Technological
thinking of the future?
E Economic
E Ecological /
Environmental
Gender
must be
P
incorporated
throughout
Political the STEEP Photo: ©Shashank Hudkar (unsplash)
categories
S
Social
T
Technological
E
Economic
E
Ecological /
P Political
Environmental
Demographics Technology incentives, Economic growth, Legal and Institutional
(population growth, age level of innovation, exchange rates, e.g. weather, e.g. trade, food safety,
distribution), income automation, research inflation rates, climate change, land tenure, water
distribution, health and development activity, interest rates, environmental use, environmental
consciousness, cultural technological change, disposable income policies, natural and social, human
barriers, norms, technological awareness of consumers and resources, ecosystem rights. Institutional
customs, values. and capacity levels. unemployment rates. goods and services. relationships.
STEEP

MODULE 02
LAND COVER AND DEGRADATION
STEEP
UNEMPLOYMENT
Photo: ©Vince Smith
REFLECTING ON

MODULE 02
• Be wary of collecting too much
EVIDENCE AND DATA
evidence – information overload
means we may not be able to
analyse and apply it. • Establishing a data focal point this
• Being able to ‘sift’ information
requires a dedicated person on your team
who can track down and do personal
and trends is a key foresight
interactions to obtain data.
skill – we need to be able to start to
see ‘signals’ of future change. • Value of evidence & addressing
protocols – thinking about which evidence
• Think of the context of a you need to obtain, understand protocols
large consumer company like for data sharing and how to address these.
Unilever – they are looking 15 – 20
years ahead – what will consumer
• Data inclusion and creating a
sharing culture – a combination of
lifestyles be like, what products will
lobbying and advocacy around evidence,
they want – this is the foresight skill
clarity of attribution of data and prompting
we need for planning for climate QUESTION? data sharing through sharing!
change. What do we think
we know (known
• Thinking in systems – taking
opportunities to link bio-physical and socio-
??
knowns)?
economic data sets.
What do we still
!!
need to find out
(known unknowns)?
MODULE 02
HORIZON SCANNING
Key Steps
Summarise trends into Analyse key
major categories questions
EXAMPLE Is land
Land degradation degradation
reversible? REFLECTIONS AND
GUIDING QUESTIONS
Are there
Is the rate examples in What do we think we
of land the region know (known knowns)?
degradation where it has
increasing? occurred? We now want to know
how much do we know
about the pest and
diseases in WCA? Can you
share two things that you
feel confident that you
know a lot about?
What do we know about

land degradation in the
Is land Will increased ecowas region?
degradation population
higher/greater growth in What do we do we still
on poor rural areas need to know about land
farmers land? degradation in member
generate higher
countries in developing
levels of land
plans for climate resilient
degradation? agricultural livelihoods?
EXAMPLE

MODULE 02
Land degradation Need to understand
the overall degree of
degradation, how close Is land
Need to understand
it is to being irreversible, degradation
better how different
Is the rate types of land
and look for examples reversible?
from the region where it
of land degradation are
has been accomplished Are there
degradation distributed in the area
examples in
increasing? the region
where it has
occurred?
We have indications
of an increase in
Up to a certain point
land degradation –
land degradation is
but not at detailed
reversible. Examples
scale
from the region?
Need to gather studies

in WCA area on the Need to identify other
topic and perhaps do factors and their status
more analysis in WCA context
Is land Not Will increased

degradation In other regions necessarily – population growth in
higher/greater we’ve seen mixed depends on rural areas generate
on poor results – in some other factors higher levels of land
farmers land? cases yes, but not degradation?
always
MODULE 02
FACILITATING A HORIZON
LEARNING ‘SCAN’ EVENT REFLECTIONS AND
EXERCISE USING AN EVIDENCE WALL GUIDING QUESTIONS
What is it
What do we think are How might insights and
key questions for a A physical or virtual display of multiple experience fit in within your
evidence forms across themes and sectors. evidence wall?
horizon scan for pests
and disease in the Why we use it
Climate events can have a high
region? • Encourages dialogue and discussion on impact but data availability is
the meaning, relationships, relevance, and poor, how do we manage this?
implications of the information.
• Allows scientists, technical officers, NGO
In the context of climate data, the
number of ground level weather
partners, and Private Sector to explain
stations has declined globally.
information in an interactive way.
Fortunately, with advances in technology
Ask the • Display information across different there are new data gathering methods.
participants to themes/sectors to understand relationships
present what and implications. For example, remote sensing and
we are doing • Brings preliminary, results and data other big data sources can be used in
and why into discussion space to discuss and combination with existing ground level
weather data (where available) to fill
understand complex data.
• It can be used in different contexts.
the gaps. Furthermore, some websites
pull together household datasets such
• It helps teams identify gaps in information as from household weather stations
that may be needed. around Sub-Saharan Africa.
MODULE 02
RETURN TO CONTENTS
POPULATION GROWTH
Social
99 Photo: ©Freepik
Social Social
POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY

MODULE 02

Social
INCOME

MODULE 02
Photo: ©Shutterstock
Social
FOOD INSECURITY
UNDERNOURISHMENT

MODULE 02
Photo: ©Freepik
RETURN TO CONTENTS
URBANIZATION
Social
102
Social Social
RURALITY

MODULE 02
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
103 Photo: ©Freepik

RETURN TO CONTENTS
Social Social

MODULE 02
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS UNEMPLOYMENT
104
RETURN TO CONTENTS
Ecological / Environmental

MODULE 02
LAND COVER AND DEGRADATION
105 Photo: ©Freepik RETURN TO CONTENTS


MODULE 02
CHANGES IN EXTREMES WITH PREDICTED
CHANGES TEMPERATURE INCREASES
Photo: ©Freepiks


MODULE 02
AGRICULTURAL
EXPANSION AND
CROP YIELDS
107 Photo: ©Georgina Smith (CIAT) RETURN TO CONTENTS

MODULE 02
Political
EFFECTIVENESS OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION
108 Photo: ©Freepiks

RETURN TO CONTENTS
LIVESTOCK AND
COMMODITY

MODULE 02
MOVEMENTS
Photo: ©Apollo Habtamu (ILRI)
LEARNING
EXERCISE
Analyzing trends
In this exercise we will consider one mega-trend in the

ECOWAS region and will practice using trend questions.
Learning
Using the three key horizon scanning questions you should

now be able to interpret information obtained from
trends analysis and horizon scanning activities and
identify where there may be gaps.

MODULE 02
INTERPRETATION
SYSTEMS MAPPING AND MULTI-SECTORAL,
MULTI-STAKEHOLDER LINKAGES
QUESTION?
The interpretation stage
follows on from the analysis
stage. This is where foresight
differs from strategic
planning, here we include a
‘pause’ to understand why
something is happening?
get in our way?

INTERPRETATION

MODULE 02
Why do we do systems
mapping in foresight?
Systems Cross sectoral
mapping and multi-
stakeholder Systems mapping allows us to look at
approaches the elements, actors, relationships of
system and, as importantly.
Serves in getting stakeholders to

share their insights, potentially
SYSTEM MAPPING divergent perspectives, and
interact and dialogue as the map is
What is it developed.
Systems mapping provides a visual way
Who does the systems
of exploring the system, its elements, REFLECTIONS mapping?
connections and complexity. AND GUIDING
As much as possible stakeholder
Why we use it QUESTIONS representatives within the system of
Mapping systems can be used as a focus should be involved in mapping.
basis for understanding stakeholders

and their relationships, issues, and the
influence of trends.
Strategic foresight is the

ability to create high-
definition forward views,
and to apply them in an
organized way.

KEY TERMS

MODULE 02
A system is an interconnected A systems view Systems thinking is
set of elements that is coherently understands life a (1) mindset, (2) tool, and
organized in a way that achieves as networks of (3) process that is reserved
something (function and purpose). relationships. for complex problems.
Disruptive change most often comes from outside

the system. No matter how narrow the focus of the
foresight study, it is important to look at changes
that may come from outside the immediate system.
SYSTEMS MAPPING
Key Steps
SYSTEMS THINKING
Consider which system
Enables us to:
is relevant to the scope
Identify and test a wider
Change our thinking to
variety of possible actions
Visualize the system match the interconnected,
and solution pathways.
and understand dynamic complexity of our
stakeholders communities and their Become more aware of
environments and their the potential for unintended
environments. consequences of our
Identify the drivers
actions.
that are influencing the Communicate with
system others to create new ways Harness social learning
of thinking and seeing processes to help us develop
Build multi-stakeholder – and develop shared a shared understanding and
understanding. take action collectively.
and cross-sectoral
relationships Change our behavior Expand the choices
to work with the complex available to us and
forces in the system (instead identify those choices
of against them) to realize where we can develop
our vision. significant leverage.

KEY TERMS
Elements - the Interconnections - these Function and purpose - the

MODULE 02
different, discrete elements are the relationships that purpose of the system is around
within the system. (farms, connect the elements (rules, the outcomes the system is meant
organizations, inputs, ideas, funding or service to achieve (food security outcomes,
soil, etc.) relationships, among others) increased livelihood streams)
LEARNING EXERCISE
Using the above definition of a system, think of a school,
SYSTEMS what elements does it consist of and how are they
THINKING connected? What is the purpose of the system? Using
different coloured pens and a large piece of paper, map
Key Steps the elements of a school system and their relationships.
Does your map look similar to the example on the right?
Consider Systems mapping is carried out following

which system four key steps:
is relevant to Key Steps for Systems Mapping
the scope • Consider which system is relevant to the scope;
• Visualise the system and understand the stakeholders;
Diagram the • Identify the drivers that are influencing the system; and
system • Build multi-stakeholder and cross-sectoral relationships.
Key terms related to a systems map include:

Consider the Elements - the different, discrete elements within the
stakeholders system (e.g. farms, organisations, inputs, and soil).
that need to Interconnections - these are the relationships that
be involved connect the elements (e.g. rules, ideas, funding or service
relationships, among others).
Function and purpose - the purpose of the system is
around the outcomes the system is meant to achieve (e.g.
food security outcomes and increased livelihood streams).

MODULE 02
Using the scope method, we unpacked agri-
food systems. The core agricultural theme was
found to be complex, constituting numerous AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS
different elements such as production
systems, employment, and food storage.
Furthermore, the agri-food systems sit within
and amongst other ecological, social, political,
and economic systems. These interconnected
systems and sectors affect outcomes such as
production and food security in the region.
FARMING
SYSTEM
Biological
diversity
Waste Mineral
cycle
Pollution ENVIRONMENT Water cycle
Climate Energy
Diseases

AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS

MODULE 02
Import
Retail
provisioning
Consumption
Processing
• Food
• Nutrition
• Products
Labour
Employment
Money Storage
distribution
Transport Export
ECONOMIC
Financial
Services
Pollution/
FARMING Transport waste
SYSTEM trade
Biological
Aggregators
diversity
farmgate
Product
Mineral • Livestock
Waste • Tree
cycle • Crop
• Fish
Productive
Pollution ENVIRONMENT Water cycle inputs
• Seeds
• Amendment
• Equipment
Climate Energy
Diseases

AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS

MODULE 02
Social
Info research organization
extensions
Import
Gender Retail
youth Media provisioning
Consumption
Processing
• Food
SOCIO- • Nutrition
CULTURAL • Products
Labour
Employment
Money Storage
Health distribution
nutrition
EL
L
VE
EL
LE
V
LE
V
AL
L LE
Y
Education ON
NIT
Transport Export
N AT I O N A
S U B N AT I
CO M M U
ECONOMIC
Financial
Services
Technology
Pollution/
SYSTEM trade
Biological
Aggregators
diversity
farmgate
Product
Waste • Tree
cycle • Crop
• Fish
Productive
Pollution ENVIRONMENT Water cycle inputs
• Seeds
• Amendment
• Equipment
Climate Energy
Diseases

AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS

MODULE 02
Social
Info research organization
extensions
Import
Gender Retail
Consumption
Processing
• Food
SOCIO- • Nutrition
CULTURAL • Products
Labour
Employment
Money Storage
Health distribution
nutrition
EL
L
VE
EL
LE
V
LE
V
AL
L LE
Y
Education ON
NIT
Transport Export
N AT I O N A
S U B N AT I
CO M M U
ECONOMIC
Financial
Services
Technology
Pollution/
SYSTEM trade
Biological
Aggregators
diversity
farmgate
Product
Waste • Tree
cycle
T
• Crop
EN
• Fish
NM
RO
Productive
Pollution ENVIRONMENT Water inputs
VI
cycle
EN
• Seeds
• Amendment G
N
LI
• Equipment
Climate
AB
Energy
N
-E
Diseases EM
ST
SY
I C AL
I T
POL
Once the systems map and drivers are complete it is important to consider the drivers carefully

MODULE 02
and understand their implications. For example, the driver ‘land degradation’ could result in
negative outcomes such as lower income, reduced food security, lower production, reduced water
holding capacity, migration, loss of school fees, and loss of biodiversity. See the diagram below for
the possible outcomes of land degradation and how to map them.
ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVER
Land degradation Info research
Social
organization
extensions
Import
Gender Retail
Consumption
Processing LOWER INCOME,
SOCIO-
• Food
• Nutrition
PURCHASING
CULTURAL • Products POWER
Labour
Employment
Money Storage
Health distribution
nutrition
MIGRATION
EL
L
VE
EL
LE
V
LE
V
AL
L LE
Education
ON
NIT
Transport Export
N AT I O N A
S U B N AT I
CO M M U
ECONOMIC NEED FOR

Financial
FOOD AID/
Services REDUCED FOOD
SECURITY
Technology
Pollution/
SYSTEM trade
LOSS OF
Biological
SCHOOL FEES diversity
Aggregators
farmgate
Product
Waste • Tree
cycle
T
• Crop
EN
• Fish LOWER
NM
PRODUCTION
Productive
RO
Pollution inputs
ENVIRONMENT Water
VI
cycle • Seeds
EN
• Amendment
• Equipment G
N
Climate LI
AB
Energy
LOSS OF N
BIODIVERSITY -E
M
Diseases
S TE
Y
A LS
ITIC REDUCED
POL WATER HOLDING
CAPACITY

FARMING SYSTEM

MODULE 02
OCATION, FAMILY COMPO
ISTIC L S
TER H/TREE SYSTEM, SYS ITION (
A RAC ESTOCK/FIS T E MC AG
R CH P/LIV OM E, GE
E O PO
LD E, CR NE NDE
O Z NT R
SEH D SI S A ), F
A
U ER N D RM
O
H E H A CT A
M SIZ IV
N
FIE AR
D S
LD
F
IT
IE
MODULE 02
Photo: ©Eka Sariwati (unsplash)
FARMING SYSTEM
TION, FAMILY COMP
IC LOCA OSIT
CTERIST /FI SH /TREE SYSTEM, SY ION
R A O C K S T EM C (AGE
C HA /LIVEST OM ,
R
DE , CRO
P P O GEN
L NE D
HO SIZE NT ER)
E S AN , FA
US E R D D RM
O
H EH AC A
M SIZ TI
V HOUSEHOLD
N
FI E A R
D S
LD
PRODUCTION
F
IT
TREE PRODUCTION AND
IE
AND DECISION
Child rearing,
Livestock care and
Management
decisions
tree, productive
inputs (fertility,
Crop/grass
species, varieties,
output Healthcare
pest management,
(grass, crops,
water harvesting,
plant residues)
intercropping,
fodder)
Land health,
nutrients,
Aquaculture
outputs (fish)
climate
Farm products and losses, Economic and social


MODULE 02
Photo: ©Duang Phorn (unsplash)
FARMING SYSTEM
TION, FAMILY COMP
IC LOCA OSIT
CTERIST /FI SH /TREE SYSTEM, SY ION
R A O C K S T EM C (AGE
C HA /LIVEST M ILY L A B O OM ,
R P F A UR P O GEN
L DE , CRO A L L O C AT I ON NE D
HO SIZE NT ER)
E S AN , FA
US E R D D RM
O
H EH AC A
M SIZ TI
V HOUSEHOLD
N
FI E A R
D S
LD
PRODUCTION
F
IT
TREE PRODUCTION AND
IE
AND DECISION
Child rearing,
Livestock care and
Management
decisions
tree, productive
inputs (fertility,
Crop/grass
species, varieties,
output Healthcare
pest management,
(grass, crops,
water harvesting,
plant residues)
intercropping,
fodder)
Land health,
nutrients,
Aquaculture
outputs (fish)
climate
Farm products and losses, OUTCOMES OUTCOMES Economic and social


MODULE 02
Food System – A food
system is a complex
web of activities
involving the production,
processing, transport,
and consumption –
connecting people
to their food. Issues
concerning the food
system include the
governance and
economics of food
production, its
sustainability, the
degree to which we
waste food, how food
production affects the
natural environment
and the impact of
food on individual and
population health.
FAO; Schipanski et al., 2016
Photo: ©Georgina Smith (CIAT)

DIMENSIONS AND DRIVERS
OF A FOOD SYSTEM

MODULE 02
ENVIRONMENTAL
DIMENSIONS
Biological Waste Pollution Climate

diversity
Diseases Energy Water Mineral

cycle cycle

OF A FOOD SYSTEM

MODULE 02
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
Distribution and
Value chain stages Food Environment
Processing Trade
Pre-production
Access and availability of inputs Transport
Farm gate
links
aggregators
Access to
finance Cold chain
Off-farm
Access to Labour manufacturing Export
credit Employment
Productive inputs
• Seeds Production
• Amendment Consumption
• Equipment
Marketing
Trees Crop
Dietary Nutritional
diversity status
Access to
Fish Livestock food stands,
kiosks, stores,
ENVIRONMENTAL restaurants
DIMENSIONS

diversity

cycle cycle

OF A FOOD SYSTEM

MODULE 02
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
Distribution and
Processing Trade
Pre-production
Farm gate
links
aggregators
Access to
finance Cold chain
Off-farm
credit Employment
SOCIO-CULTURAL Productive inputs
DIMENSIONS • Seeds Production
• Equipment
Marketing
Trees Crop
Dietary Nutritional
Health & Info research Social diversity status
nutrition status extensions organization Access to
kiosks, stores,
DIMENSIONS
Gender Technology Media
& youth

Education diversity

cycle cycle

OF A FOOD SYSTEM

MODULE 02
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
Distribution and
Processing Trade
Pre-production
Farm gate
links
aggregators
Access to
finance Cold chain
Off-farm
credit Employment
SOCIO-CULTURAL Productive inputs
DIMENSIONS • Seeds Production
• Equipment
Marketing
Trees Crop
Dietary Nutritional
kiosks, stores,
DIMENSIONS
& youth POLITICAL SYSTEM
- ENABLING
Biological Waste Pollution Climate ENVIRONMENT
Education diversity

cycle cycle
Food systems outcomes
Socio-Economic Environmental Food Security
NATIONAL LEVEL
SUB-NATIONAL LEVEL
LANDSCAPE /
COMMUNITY LEVEL

DIMENSIONS AND DRIVERS Political &
Institutional Drivers
OF A FOOD SYSTEM

MODULE 02
Governance
& leadership Land rights
Socio-economic
International
drivers Local
governance
trade &
political
& by-laws
stability
Formal & Agriculture
Demographics Urbanization Markets & trade informal subsidies
governance
and legal
systems
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
Food price Cross-sectoral
Employment Infrastructure
integration
Distribution and
Processing Trade
Pre-production
Science & Equity & Women & youth Access and availability of inputs Transport
technology agency Farm gate
engagement links
aggregators
Access to
finance Cold chain
Off-farm
credit Employment
Access to Socio-cultural SOCIO-CULTURAL Productive inputs

productive desirability and
preferences
DIMENSIONS Production
resources • Seeds
• Equipment
Marketing
Trees Crop
Dietary Nutritional
kiosks, stores,
DIMENSIONS
& youth POLITICAL SYSTEM
- ENABLING
Biological Waste Pollution Climate ENVIRONMENT
Education diversity

cycle cycle
Food systems outcomes
Socio-Economic Environmental Food Security

Biophysical drivers
NATIONAL LEVEL
Food Water Energy SUB-NATIONAL LEVEL

environment scarcity sources
LANDSCAPE /
COMMUNITY LEVEL
Land Trans- Climate
degradation boundary change
disease

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE

MODULE 02
FOOD SYSTEM
CONSUMPTION SUPPLY CHAIN Increase in
rate of food
spoilage
resulting in a
loss of income.
Increase in
Reduction
rate of food
Poor in product
spoilage and
consumer quality in-
wastage.
experience. store.
Reduction in
water available
for food
processing
plants.
Increase in
health risks due
Volatile food Damage to
to an increase Greater need for
prices due to infrastructure
in prevalence improved storage
a reduction in affecting delivery
of pathogens and processing
productivity of goods e.g.
and pests. facilities and
and imports. damage to
bridges by costly cold chain
flooding. investments.
Other key stressors include: Other key stressors include:

• Food loss & waste • Transport
• Health risks • Cold chains
• Production & price volatility • Water, energy availability
128
Photo Left: ©Michael Tewelde (FAO/IFAD/WFP)
Photo Right: ©Random Institute (unsplash) RETURN TO CONTENTS
MODULE 02
REFLECTIONS
It is important that the

stakeholders within Photo: ©Shutterstock
the system and those

that influence the
system are involved in
the mapping.
The conversations LEARNING EXERCISE
around the maps are
as important as the
maps themselves.
Starting to build a system map for pest and disease:
• Environmental dimensions
• Socio-cultural dimensions
• Economic dimensions
• Geo-political
MODULE 02
Historical Systems
Visioning
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations

In defining the scope,
KEY TERMS

MODULE 02
you identified and listed
stakeholders relevant to Multi-Stakeholder Cross Sectoral Coordination
your theme. You drew a Collaboration the engagement, management, planning
basic stakeholder map consists of a mix of and implementation, of activities
showing the relationships representatives or conducted across different thematic
between key stakeholders. stakeholders from sectors to deliver development
Use this work as a base public, civil and private outcomes (e.g. food security, nutrition,
for carrying out the steps domains of society. sustainable landscapes and agriculture).
that follow.
CONNECTED SECTORS WORKING ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Example from
BOTSWANA

MODULE 02
Photo: ©Freepik
BOTSWANA

MODULE 02
BOTSWANA

LEARNING EXERCISE

MODULE 02
Getting sectors to map their relationships
What are we getting and what are we giving?
In an ideal situation you would include stakeholders from all sectors, and they would have a systems
view. They would focus on their respective area but understand, respect, and interact with the other stakeholders. The outcome of this
would be the ability to talk freely about what stakeholders give and what they get from each other i.e. the different sectors, ministries,
and departments, within the given theme.
building relationships throughout the foresight exercise is important for enhancing cross-
In summary,
sectoral coordination and stakeholder collaboration for strategy development and implementation. The end products
are transformative strategies for development which are much more inclusive.

MODULE 02
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
How can we use systems mapping to better understand climate risk?
The IPCC framework shows the interaction between socio-cultural and environmental processes. This highlights the need
for a multi-stakeholder and cross-sectoral approach. Specialists can gather data for in depth assessments within their
areas of expertise and bring the evidence to the table for discussion with people from different backgrounds and with
different perspectives. They can use systems mapping to identify areas that have not been thought of.
Systems mapping can also be useful in understanding:

• How different stakeholders perceive how the system functions;
• Where knowledge about the system is underdeveloped;
• What evidence is available; and
• What will happen if we intervene in one aspect of the system i.e. what repercussions will the actions have on other
areas of the system.
You should now understand the importance of multi-stakeholder and cross-

sectoral relationship building and engagement in foresight planning. You
know that a systems’ understanding among stakeholders is the first step to
creating meaningful change in the system and for developing robust strategies
through the foresight process.

MODULE 02
Build relationships throughout
the foresight activity to enhance
cross sectoral coordination and
stakeholder collaboration for strategy
development and implementation
A systems
understanding among
the stakeholders is the
first step to creating
meaningful change
in the system – and
developing a robust
strategy through the
foresight process.

Visioning and Causal Analysis
MODULE 03
MODULE 03
Visioning and
Causal Analysis
MODULE 03
MODULE 02
MODULE 01

MODULE 03
OVERVIEW OF MODULE THREE
Establish Scope for a

learning goals foresight exercise
Introduce
foresight
Trends Analysis
Learning
reflections Practical
Practical
exercise
exercise Horizon
scanning

LEARNING EXERCISE

MODULE 03
Before getting started with Module 3, test your
knowledge of foresight and information from the
previous module by answering the following questions:
What are the four guiding questions we are trying to
answer with a foresight process?
What seems to be happening?

What’s really happening?
What might happen?
What do we need to do?
What categories could

you use for doing
horizon scanning?
S Social
T
In the scope method what information do you need to define?
Technological
E Economic
E
Scope Theme or Geopolitical Understand Setting the Mapping the Influence
key topic boundary relevant timelines stakeholders and power
structures relations Ecological /
and policies Environmental
P Political

MODULE 03
Systems
Historical mapping
trends Developing Backcasting Develop
Theme or Visioning
analysis scenarios road map
key topic
Cross
boundary and multi- Causal Scenario development Sequencing
scanning analysis implications relationships
stakeholder & trade-offs
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations

PLAN

MODULE 03
Visioning Causal Network
analysis mapping
VISIONING Key Steps
What is it Define the system/theme and set a clear

timeline for the vision.
Visioning is method for collaboratively outlining a
compelling vision of a preferred future. Define relevant dimensions of the vision.
Why we use it
Draft descriptors of the desired
Visioning a desirable future is the first step in creating a
outcome(s) within each dimension.
powerful strategy and provides the basis for developing
interventions, services, policies and partnerships that Describe supporting and sustaining
will be required to achieve that future. elements for the desired outcome.

MODULE 03
Visioning is method for collaboratively outlining
a compelling vision of a preferred future.
Visioning a desirable future is a critical step in

creating powerful strategy and provides the
QUESTION? basis for developing interventions, services, policies
Does your organization / and partnerships that will be required to achieve
institution / department that future.
CORE GUIDING / programme / company
QUESTIONS OF have a future vision?
FORESIGHT What year does this Local political processes and
vision take you to? international organizations
What seems to are setting future visions
be happening?
based on their assessments
and values while a collection
What’s really
happening? of individual aspirations is
shaping the response to
What do these through the multitude
we want to of visions for future lives.
happen?
Linking and aligning multi-
What might scale views and processes
happen? could significantly improve
outcomes and accelerate
What do we progress.”
need to do? Mausch et al. 2021, Neely et al. 2021;
Dilley et al. 2021

Transformative change includes major long-term

MODULE 03
changes in the way we operate and may shift us between
CRAFTING A VISION or into new ‘system’ and processes.
STATEMENT
In the ECOWAS region, we aspire
to integrate climate resilience
throughout the agri-food system TRANSFORMATION
where the government, civil
The future that is
society and private sector coming often requires
are aligned, committed and significant change.
coordinated for a climate resilient
future and opportunities are Transformative
created for: change requires
sometimes radically
1. Investments in decent, green new interventions,
employment and climate friendly policies and
value chains; partnerships.
2. Farming and pastoral systems Moves us beyond

are climate smart and diversified to incremental change
increase productivity and enhance and results in major
ecosystem functions; long-term changes in
the way systems operate.
3. All citizens are empowered, safe and
resilient to climate threats; and
4. Climate change information and

measures are built into cross-sectoral
and multi-stakeholder planning, At the national level, transformation is considered
decision making, and investments most effective when it considers a country’s own
at all levels, and all of this is underpinned visions and approaches to achieve sustainable
by leadership with integrity and a
development in accordance with their national
long-term view and sustainable and
resilient natural resources.
circumstances and priorities.

VISION BUILDING

MODULE 03
Over what theme and
timescale
Who will be engaged A vision is critical

Who will be impacted to initiating a
Dimensions and transformative shift
transformational outcomes
Elements to support and

• Brings to light what
individuals aspire to
sustain
and diminish competing
Craft a vision statement objectives.
Craft a policy aspiration
• When tied to the different
dimensions of the system
in which you are working,
visions can support deeper
engagement of actors who
LEARNING may have diverse objectives.
EXERCISE • Foster relationships

These are the ‘components’ of a and shift values among
coordinated preparedness and stakeholders.
response plan – how do we shape
the vision session when you bring in • The communication and
thematic experts to a foresight exercise? creation of a shared vision
builds ownership and ensures
the necessary buy in to carry
out the actions necessary to
achieve the vision.
RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS EARLY WARNING RESPONSE

MODULE 03
Photo: ©Freepik
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa follows
a low-carbon growth
trajectory while making
a fair contribution to the
global effort to limit the
average temperature
increase, while ensuring
a just transition
and building of the
country’s resilience to
climate change”
South Africa’s Low
Emission Development
Strategy 2050.

GAMBIA

MODULE 03
Developing their
Long-term climate mitigation 2050 Climate Vision
goals can have a significant
impact on decision makers’
choice of priorities, policies
and mitigation options for the
short- and mid-term. Building on previous
efforts and setting
In particular, if a long-term ambition goals
vision or goal is not taken into
• The Gambian government had a • The purpose of the 2050
account when establishing solid foundation from which to Climate Vision outlined in this
short- or mid-term actions, build its long-term vision, document is to provide such a
having already set some of the roadmap. The vision will also
this can lead to the design
most ambitious goals of any assist the country in making
of policy packages that are LDC and taken practical steps to the right investment decisions
capable of achieving a short- advance progressive policy and regarding where scarce resources
programmes for low-carbon and should be deployed.
or mid-term target, but that
climate-resilient development.
• By prioritising climate-
are not able to deliver the
• The Gambia’s 2050 Climate related development
structural and economic Vision builds on its existing and actions, the 2050 Climate Vision
transformations needed to significant efforts to implement will also provide a framework for
the United Nations responding to global disruptions
achieve a subsequent, and Framework Convention on and ensure that hard- earned
more ambitious longer-term Climate Change and Paris development gains are not
goal. Agreement, including a National eroded or lost.
Adaptation Plan of Action, National
Appropriate Mitigation Actions and
• Our 2050 Climate Vision serves
not only as a strategy for a better
a forthcoming National Adaptation
future but also as a bedrock for
Plan (NAP), which is currently in the
current investment.
preparatory phase.

DESIGNING AN INCLUSIVE PROCESS

MODULE 03
Coordination: Ministry Participants: Representatives Engagement
of Environment, Climate from national government ministries, activities: visioning
Change and Natural departments and agencies, local government workshops, virtual
Resources (MECCNAR) and authorities and regional councils, civil consultations, email surveys,
the Ministry of Finance and society, youth and academic groups, industry questionnaires and key
Economic Affairs (MoFEA). and trade associations, development informant interviews.
partners, the media and the private sector.
GUIDING PRINCIPLES
Building on the Gambian concept of ‘tesito’ (self-reliance, drawing upon one’s own resources) several key principles underpin
the development of our 2050 Climate Vision and long-term strategy:
Scientific
Information.
Draw on the best
scientific knowledge Innovation
Sustainable available so that and Learning.
Development. policy decisions and Foster a culture
Maintain a decent programmes of action of innovation,
environment and are well-informed and continuous
ensure sustainable evidence based. learning and take a
flexible, pragmatic Precautionary
development.
approach. Measures. Take
Inclusivity. Use
precautionary
inclusive processes
measures to
based on informed
anticipate, prevent
participation,
or minimise the
equity (including
causes of climate
intergenerational
change and mitigate
equity) and social
its adverse effects.
inclusion.
Climate Justice.
International
Achieve climate
linkages. Develop
justice and adopt
international
the principle of
cooperation and
‘polluter pays’.
solidarity.

MODULE 03
Our Vision
LESSONS AND INSIGHTS
By 2050, The Gambia aspires to be a climate-resilient, middle
income country through green economic growth supporting • Creating a national vision
sustainable, low emissions development, contributing its fair demands significant
share to global efforts to address climate change. resources, which is
why high-level political
leadership is important.
Our Mission • Inclusion not only added

• We will endeavor to reach net-zero carbon emissions by
value to the end product
but also helped to ensure
2050, with enhanced adaptive capacities and resilience,
and play our part to address climate change through
that government and
vigorous public agency backed by the full engagement development partner
of our citizens from all walks of life climate interventions
are in alignment for the
• We recognize that while The Gambia’s contribution to foreseeable future.
climate change has always been marginal, our country
faces extraordinary challenges due to the impacts of • Valuable insights and
climate change. We therefore are committed to act with ideas were brought
the necessary sense of urgency. forward, leading to a more
nuanced and robust vision
• We commit to transforming The Gambia into a statement. It also created
country with an environmentally conscious and
a rich national dialogue
educated population for the sustainable development
on climate change and
and management of our natural resources, cities
development and helped
and habitats. This includes transport and other
to build national buy-
infrastructure, tourism, sustainable agriculture and
forestation, all of which leads to reduced greenhouse
in for the vision and its
gas emissions, less pollution and clean air and water, all implementation.
contributing towards high standards of living.

Core Values

MODULE 03
Our core values and culture, including our concept of “tesito” (self
reliance, drawing upon our own resources), that defines and unites
us as Gambians, will inform and underpin all of our efforts in this
important journey we embark upon.
We are committed to working with all parties in the spirit of

multilateralism and international solidarity. We regard climate change
as an existential global threat which all of humanity must play their part.
Our Strategic Priorities

We are committed to pursuing a low-carbon and climate resilient
development pathway as a central strategy in our quest to realize our
vision and will endeavor to put in place the necessary policies and
institutions. We will spare no efforts to position our country to tap the
enormous opportunities that a low-carbon economic growth pathway
offers.
To achieve our vision and mission, we have prioritized and

organized our policy commitments and actions in four
strategic and integrated focal areas:
• Climate resilient food and landscapes: Agriculture,

food security, forestry and natural resources (including water,
biodiversity, and wildlife)
• Low emissions and resilient economy: Energy, transport,

infrastructure and the key economic sectors of tourism and
financial services.
• Climate-resilient people: Health, education, equitable social

development and human settlements.
• Managing our coasts in a changing environment: Climate-

aware integrated coastal zone management.

MODULE 03
Photo: ©Freepik
BENIN
The overall objective of the strategy is to contribute
to the sustainable development of Benin,
by integrating climate considerations into
the country’s strategic sectoral operational
plans, to make them lower in carbon
intensity and more resilient to climate
change.
More specifically, the strategy is developed

and implemented in order to:
• Strengthen the resilience of local

communities and economic production systems;
• Reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions; and
• Strengthen the protection of communities,

especially those of the most vulnerable in
the face of natural disasters.

MODULE 03
LEARNING EXERCISE
What barriers (identified obstacles that could stop the achievement of an activity)
could prevent the achievement of the defined Draft Vision Statement? What are the
underlying causes of the barriers i.e. why are the obstacles in place?
Use the responses below to guide your brainstorming
‘Political ‘Different ‘Different ‘Sometimes

resistance, power interests the vision is
contradicting and among not understood
policies.’ economic ‘Conflict stakeholders.’ to people
interests.’ of interest implementing
and it and even to
‘Funding.’ culture.’ the community
the project is
working on.’
‘Risk ‘Cultural
adverse beliefs, ‘Not having
farmers and lack of a dedicated ‘Social
investors.’ knowledge, implementation factors
fear of team.’ such as
change.’ poverty.’
You should now understand the visioning method of the plan stage of the foresight process. You
would have followed the key steps and drafted a vision statement of a desirable future. This is the
first step in creating a powerful strategy and provides the basis for developing interventions, services,
policies, and partnerships that will be required to achieve that future.

KEY TERMS

MODULE 03
Root cause analysis or simple causal
analysis is used to understand what issues underpin
identified barriers to achieving a desired outcome.
CAUSAL ANALYSIS
What is it
A root cause analysis or We often treat symptoms instead of the root causes of our
simple causal analysis is used issues when we make are planning our interventions.
to understand what issues
underpin identified barriers to
achieving a desired outcome.
Why we use it Key Steps
• When a critical look at
identified barriers is
Brainstorm the different barriers and prioritize the barriers.
undertaken, there are
often underpinning or root
causes that reflect deeper Identify initial causes in a chain of levels to identify the root
economic, social, cultural, cause.
environmental, institutional,
and political reasons as well Consider the implications of this barrier if it is not addressed.
as different world views or
behavioral drivers.
Looking across the root causes and implications, categorize
• To raise awareness on those that are social, economic, institutional, political,
the systems nature of any cultural, environmental, etc.
identified problem
• To understand the symptoms Looking across the root causes and categorise the types of
versus the causes. stakeholders that would have to be involved to solve the
underlying causes of the barrier.

MODULE 03
STEP 1
PRIORITIZE BARRIERS AND SELECT KEY BARRIER
Prioritize 3-5 barriers and then select your key barrier
BRAINSTORM AND PRIORITIZE BARRIERS
High youth
unemployment Conflicts within
Deforestation and across Consuming of
borders resources (natural
Water scarcity / capital)
droughts (seasonal Vested interests
Lack of trust Food
unpredictability)
insecurity
Growing Lack of green
Inequities infrastructure
Land Degradation Corruption and industry
Transboundary
Diseases and
Pandemics
Migration Profit over
Ineffective people
Pests monopolies?
Government
Agricultural
price Widening
fluctuations Inequities
Unsustainable Profit over

energy sources people
monopolies?

MODULE 03
Photo: ©Freepik
STEP 1
IDENTIFY INITIAL CAUSES IN A LET’S TAKE THE EXAMPLE OF
CHAIN OF LEVELS TO IDENTIFY WATER SCARCITY
THE ROOT CAUSE
IMPLICATIONS
LEARNING
EXERCISE
WATER SCARCITY
Of the barriers that you have identified as

relevant to your vision, which are likely to
be the most prohibitive? CAUSES
Select two or three of these barriers to take

forwards into Steps 3 to 6

MODULE 03
IMPLICATIONS
WATER SCARCITY
Unequal Overuse of
access available
to water water
resources resources
CAUSES
Lack of
Exploitation awareness of
by large scale urban users
agriculture
and other
corporations
Lack of
conservation
orientation
Greed
Photo: ©Red Charlie (unsplash)

MODULE 03
IMPLICATIONS
WATER SCARCITY
Unequal Overuse of
access available
to water water
resources resources
CAUSES
Lack of
agriculture
and other
corporations
Lack of, or
ineffective, water
management
policies
Lack of
conservation
orientation Single sector
Greed orientation, lack
of integrated
development
plans

MODULE 03
IMPLICATIONS
WATER SCARCITY
Unequal Overuse of
access available
to water water
resources resources
CAUSES
Lack of
agriculture
and other
corporations
Lack of, or Unsustainable
ineffective, water agricultural
management practices
policies
Lack of
conservation
orientation Single sector
Greed orientation, lack
of integrated Lack of
development education,
plans Weak or
awareness and
ineffective
information
extension
availability
services

MODULE 03
IMPLICATIONS
WATER SCARCITY
Reduced
Unequal Overuse of rainfall due
access available to changes
to water water in weather
resources resources patterns
CAUSES
Lack of
Exploitation awareness of Siltation
by large scale urban users of dams
agriculture Bare
and other ground
corporations
Lack of, or Unsustainable Soil
ineffective, water agricultural runoff
management practices from land
policies
Loss of
Lack of biodiversity,
conservation
orientation Poor land loss of
Single sector
Greed management vegetation
orientation, lack
cover and loss
of integrated Lack of of soil
plans Weak or
awareness and
ineffective
information
extension
availability
services

Lack of

MODULE 03
Loss of water for Increased
Loss of
livelihoods sanitation disease
tourism
prevalence
Conflict
Increased over water
marginalisation of resources
women and girls Migration Lack of safe
drinking
water
Reduced
capacity to
adapt to climate
Increased time change and
seeking water by shock events
women and girls
IMPLICATIONS
Electricity
loss due to
low water
levels in
dams
WATER SCARCITY
Reduced
Unequal Overuse of rainfall due
access available to changes
to water water in weather
resources resources patterns
CAUSES
Lack of
Exploitation awareness of Siltation
by large scale urban users of dams
agriculture Bare
and other ground
corporations
Lack of, or Unsustainable Soil
ineffective, water agricultural runoff
management practices from land
policies
Loss of
Lack of biodiversity,
conservation
orientation Poor land loss of
Single sector
Greed management vegetation
orientation, lack
cover and loss
of integrated Lack of of soil
plans Weak or
awareness and
ineffective
information
extension
availability
services

MODULE 03
QUESTION?
Can you give us an example of when a perception, belief
or worldview got in the way of achieving a result?
QUESTIONS &
Social ANSWERS
Peace and
Social Security Social With such a broad vision
Livelihoods Health with numerous barriers
and root causes, how
do you decide which to
Environmental focus on or prioritise?
Economic
Social IMPLICATIONS Social The longer aspirational
Labour
visions, as seen at the start
of some policy and strategic
planning documents, help
WATER SCARCITY
to probe critical thinking.
However, often after
reading such visions one
CAUSES Environmental is left wondering where to
Social start. In such a case, the
vision should be broken
down and topical areas
should be allocated to
Economic Institutional stakeholder groups with the
Political relevant expertise.

ENGAGING A WIDER NETWORK OF STAKEHOLDERS

MODULE 03
Government Civil Society Private Sector Others
• Water Department • Large, medium • Agricultural and • Research
• Land Department and small Tree Product Institutions
• Agricultural
scale farmers’ Companies • UN: FAO, UNEP,
Department (livestock,
organisations
• Aggregators and UNICEF
aquaculture, crop • Health, education, Processors • Media
production, extension) agricultural,
• Local Farmers’ • Bilateral Donors
environmental
• Environment/NRM
International and
Markets
Department
local NGOs • Sustainable
• Health Department
• Youth groups and
Charcoal and
Wood fuel
• Finance and Planning entrepreneurs
Vendors
• Trade Department • Women’s
• Transportation
• Education
Organizations
companies
Department • Community
• Forestry, Wildlife,
• Department of
Based
Tourism operators
Organizations
Culture, Youth, Gender
When we understand the system that we are working in, we have a better
sense of how drivers of change impact different dimensions of the system.

MODULE 03
REFLECTIONS
AND GUIDING
QUESTIONS
Given the causal

analysis – which
stakeholders do we
now need to engage?
LEARNING EXERCISE
Brainstorm barriers to effective preparedness to responding to a livestock
disease or crop pest and disease

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
MODULE 04
Building
Scenarios
MODULE 04
MODULE 03
MODULE 02
MODULE 01

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
OVERVIEW OF MODULE FOUR

Introduce
foresight
Trends Analysis
Learning
Practical
exercise
exercise Horizon
scanning

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Systems
Historical mapping
Theme or Visioning
key topic
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations
KEY TERMS
Scenarios - Storylines / narratives, answering ‘what if’ questions that describe multiple alternative futures
spanning a key set of critical uncertainties. Scenarios identify future drivers of change and then plot out plausible
directions that they may take.
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG TERM PLANNING
Developing long term planning is challenging due to:
1. The time frame that extends across multiple decades; and
2. The need to deal with complex socioeconomic and biophysical systems.
Long term planning is subject to great uncertainty, such as: CORE GUIDING
QUESTIONS OF
1. Future climate impacts;
FORESIGHT
2. Technological innovation and deployment;
What seems to
3. Policy development and implementation be happening?
4. Availability of large-scale solutions; and
What’s really
5. Reliability of current data, models and skills to interpret evidence . happening?
What do
we want to
happen?
What might
happen?
What do we
need to do?

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
The premise of foresight is
that the future is still in the
making and can be actively
influenced or even created

PROSPECTION
Key Steps
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Scenarios are used as a method to think about
Developing Scenario
scenarios implications possible future states and how uncertainties
might play out.
Answering ‘what if’ questions that describe

SCENARIOS multiple alternative futures spanning a key set
What is scenario planning? of critical uncertainties.
• Scenario planning involves telling a story

A group of scenarios are alternative dynamic
with many possible endings.
stories that capture key ingredients of
• It allows decision-makers to identify a range uncertainties of the future. They reveal the
of possible outcomes and impacts (what implications of current trajectories, thus
could happen?), evaluate responses and plan illuminating options for action.
for the future.
• This enables a level of control in an uncertain
world.
• By visualizing potential risks and
opportunities, decision-makers can be SCENARIOS MUST BE….
proactive.
• Plausible - it is reasonable to assume the scenario
could happen. Plausibility does not mean that a
Why is scenario planning important? future situation will happen.
• By visualizing potential risks and • Viable - able to be done or could occur.

opportunities, decision-makers can be
proactive. • Feasible - possible and practical.
• Because a potential outcome has already • Not predictive - participatory with multiple
been thought through and actions viewpoints, bringing in quantitative and qualitative
documented, there is no need to scramble in evidence but not predictive.
time of crisis.

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
BUILDING SCENARIO PROCESS
Define focal issue and Group drivers into Select high impact & Build scenario
relevant time frame categories high uncertainty drivers storylines
1 5 6 7
2 3 4
Identify and brainstorm Identify high impact & Set up

drivers of change high uncertainty drivers scenario axis

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
1 5 6 7
2 3 4


Drivers - are factors, Internal driver - internal External
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
issues or trends that force of change for example driver - external
cause change thereby social drivers within a farm force of change, for
affecting or shaping or community and directing example political
the future. decision making of a farmer. or market drivers.
BRAINSTORMING
AND
CATEGORIZING
DRIVERS

CATEGORIES FOR ORGANISING DRIVERS
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Natural Resource
Management
(NRM) and
Environment
Socio-
cultural
Governance
/ Political /
Institutional
Agriculture
Economic
Productivity
172 Photo: Top left - ©E.W. Cordon (ILRI), Bottom Left (CIAT) RETURN TO CONTENTS
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
BRAINSTORMING AND CATEGORIZING DRIVERS

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
1 5 6 7
2 3 4


Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
RANKING DRIVERS
IN TERMS OF:
Impact – refers to the
potential scale of impacts of Impact – how impactful they
the driver on your scenario are (Low, High).
theme.
Uncertainty – how well we
QUESTION?
know how they will play out
What driver do you think (Low, High).
will be highly impactful
in your country in the
Uncertainty – in scenarios next 10 years?
refers to how much or how
clear we are on how a driver
will emerge or play out in the
future. High uncertainty does Let’s take the drivers of change in food systems
not mean ‘high improbability’,
high uncertainty can mean Impact - how Uncertainty - how well we
having little knowledge of how Driver impactful they are know how they will play out
(Low, High) (Low, High)
something may pan out.
Expanding areas for major
commodities HIGH LOW / MEDIUM
Population growth HIGH LOW
Critical uncertainties - Open borders HIGH HIGH

are drivers that are both high
impact and highly uncertain.
Export regulations HIGH HIGH
Climate Risk to agriculture HIGH HIGH

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
1 5 6 7
2 3 4


Building Scenarios
MODULE 04

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
1 5 6 7
2 3 4


SCENARIO 1
National border closing Low youth unemployment to
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
to regional integration high youth unemployment
Regional
integration /
trade
LOW youth HIGH youth

unemployment unemployment
National
borders
closing

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
1 5 6 7
2 3 4


DIMENSIONS FOR BUILDING STORYLINES
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Socio-cultural, BUILDING STORYLINES
education,
Let’s assume we are trying to write a
gender, youth
storyline that describes our future
climate resilient agriculture system in
the region.
Political / Consider the quadrant where we have:

Institutional
HIGH YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
HIGH NATIONALISM (NOT WELL

Environmental
REGIONALLY INTEGRATED)
state,
ecosystem
function,
forest cover,
soil health
Agriculture
productivity:
livestock,
crops and
aquaculture QUESTION?
Can you describe in
Economic, a sentence what the
investment economy might look
and trade in the future under this
scenario?
181 Photo: ©Neil Palmer (CIAT)

RETURN TO CONTENTS
SCENARIO 1
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Regional
integration /
trade
Socio-cultural, Socio-cultural,
education, education,
gender, youth Environmental state, gender, youth Environmental state,
ecosystem function, ecosystem function,
forest cover, soil health forest cover, soil health
Economic, Economic,
investment investment
and trade Agriculture and trade Agriculture
productivity: livestock, productivity: livestock,
crops and aquaculture crops and aquaculture
Political / Political /
Institutional Institutional
LOW HIGH
youth youth
unemployment Socio-cultural, Socio-cultural, unemployment
education, education,
ecosystem function, ecosystem function,
forest cover, soil health forest cover, soil health
Economic, Economic,
investment investment
and trade Agriculture and trade Agriculture
productivity: livestock, productivity: livestock,
crops and aquaculture crops and aquaculture
Political / Political /
Institutional Institutional
National
borders
closing

SCENARIO 1 REFLECTIONS AND GUIDING QUESTIONS
What are some of the biggest challenges in using the
foresight process to shape policies?
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
• It is important to dedicate some time to explain that you are exploring
possible futures, and not only the futures you want.
• It is important to embed the scenarios exercise in the broader policies
process and include key decision makers to make sure.
• Recommendations are really taken forward.
Regional
integration /
trade
LOW HIGH
youth youth
Economic,
investment
and trade
National
borders
183 closing RETURN TO CONTENTS
SCENARIO 1 REFLECTIONS AND GUIDING QUESTIONS
If you want to review an existing policy do you look at the
policy first before developing the scenarios or develop
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
The scenarios then review the policy?
• Both options are possible. However, if you work with a draft version of
the policy first the impact of the scenarios.
• Work might be more concrete.
HIGH
youth
unemployment
Socio-cultural, education, gender, youth Political / Institutional
Potential loss of nutritional diversity, Increased nationalism,

increased crime, reduced investment reduced types of institutions
in education and youth, increased addressing food system,
“competition” across society. competition for leadership.
Economic, investment and trade Environmental state,

Dramatic reduction of food and agricultural ecosystem function,
inputs being imported, reduced forex. forest cover, soil health
Unemployment leads to
feed families, increases in
deforestation, degradation
Agriculture productivity: livestock, crops of resources, increased
and aquaculture hunting for bushmeat,
Need for productivity increases but based on potential conflict over
inputs within national border. transboundary waters?
National
borders
closing

SCENARIO 1
BUILDING STORYLINES
Consider the quadrant where you have:
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
LOW YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
HIGH REGIONAL INTEGRATION
Regional
integration /
trade
Agriculture
productivity: livestock,
crops and aquaculture
LOW HIGH
youth youth
National
borders
closing
SCENARIO 1
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Regional
integration /
trade
Agriculture productivity: livestock, crops

and aquaculture
Pastoralists, small-scale farmers and

fishers may be marginalized in favor of
large-scale production systems. Integrated
farming systems are not promoted.
LOW HIGH
youth youth
National
borders
closing

SCENARIO 2
Low climate risk to Low disease prevalence/spread to
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
high climate risk high disease prevalence/spread
LOW disease
prevalence
LOW HIGH
climate climate
risk risk
HIGH
disease
prevalence

SCENARIO 2
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
HIGH climate
risk
Socio-cultural, education, gender, youth Agriculture productivity: livestock, crops
Widening wealth gap, nutrition and and aquaculture
food insecurity, school dropouts, greater
Loss of crops, livestock to drought, potential
impact on women - alternatively women
for greater climate disease risk, severe
farmers become more important,
challenges meeting food security needs of
social safety nets are diminished,
population.
potential increases in displacement
due to droughts, floods, enhanced
disease prevalence; Inequitable impact
of disease across society (poor and Political / Institutional
marginalized, elderly, women), health
resources overstretched, district and Likely power grabs by government leaders,
backlash to lockdowns. move to more authoritarian government
through shutdowns, loss of trust between
GO and other societal sectors.
Environmental state, ecosystem
function, forest cover, soil health
Reduced sources of livelihoods lead to Economic, investment and trade
enhanced conflict over resources leading Dramatic reduction in national
to destruction, loss of wildlife, vegetative productivity and GDP, potential damage
cover, forest, water quality, concerns over to infrastructure, focus on self-sufficiency
sources of disease lead to destruction of (staples), closing of business across value
resources. chains.
HIGH disease
prevalence

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
QUESTION? REFLECTIONS AND GUIDING QUESTIONS
Is it possible to build How do we integrate national and regional level scenarios?
a ‘business-as-usual
scenario, for example, if This is difficult because people have detailed matrices including
we continue as we are, different perspectives and priorities multiple axes representing five
what will happen? in a scenarios development process. high uncertainty drivers. It was a
As aforementioned, in the scenario useful exercise that took around
development case study in Vietnam, four days to complete.
there was considerable disagreement
The result included the
between the regional and national
viewpoints of both the national
level stakeholders on the importance
and regional level stakeholders.
of the role of China on the economy.
It should be noted here that
Scenario story lines serve This presented a lot of uncertainty this module has described one
as plausible futures that and people had vastly different method of developing scenarios,
provide insights into what viewpoints on the subject. This the method you choose should
may happen that we have was dealt with by developing more suit the focal issue in question.
not considered allowing us
to plan accordingly.
How do we link parallel initiatives and policy planning using
the scenarios process?
Invite the people on both teams into one room and encourage dialogue around
the key drivers and uncertainties they face, and what their preferred futures look
like, for both policy processes.

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
1 5 6 7
2 3 4


It is important to build scenarios across multiple drivers
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
SCENARIO 1
Regional SCENARIO 2
integration /
trade SCENARIO 3
LOW disease
prevalence
LOW technology
investment
HIGH youth
unemployment
HIGH
climate risk
HIGH
political
support
LOW youth
unemployment
LOW
climate
LOW
risk
political
support
National
borders
closing
HIGH disease
prevalence HIGH technology
investment
REFLECTIONS AND GUIDING QUESTIONS

What happens if you have more than two drivers you want to explore?
That is great – you can create many different scenarios. Each scenario works with two drivers.
If you have more than two drivers, you can create another scenario with the other two drivers
you want to explore.

What is coming out of your scenarios –
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
True value lies in enhancing
aspects in the next five or 10 years that the ‘cognitive agility’ of
need urgent attention planners by extending long-
term thinking and exploring
future developments.
Agriculture
productivity:
livestock, crops
and aquaculture
Socio-cultural,
education,
gender, youth
Economic,
investment
and trade
Environmental
state, ecosystem
function, forest Political /
cover, soil health Institutional
2030 2040 2050

WHERE SCENARIOS MEET VISIONS
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Looking across multiple scenarios we find storylines that represent
preferred futures and the futures we hope to avoid
SCENARIO 1
Regional SCENARIO 2
integration /
trade SCENARIO 3
LOW disease
prevalence
LOW technology
investment
HIGH youth
unemployment
HIGH
climate risk
HIGH
political
support
LOW youth
unemployment
LOW
climate
LOW
risk
political
support
National
borders
closing
HIGH disease
investment
Foresight is the ability to create high-definition forward views, and to apply them in an organized way

PREFERRED FUTURE STORY LINES FUTURE STORY LINES TO AVOID
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Socio-cultural, education, gender, youth Agriculture productivity: livestock, crops
Students are staying in school to and aquaculture
increase opportunities of better Loss of crops, livestock to drought, potential
employment. Social safety nets are in for greater climate related disease risk,
place to provide women and youth with severe challenges meeting food security
nutrition foods and vocational training. needs of population.
Investments are focused on preventative
health approaches in conjunction with
emergency response.
Political / Institutional
Likely power grabs by government
leaders, move to more authoritarian
Environmental state, ecosystem government through shutdowns, loss
function, forest cover, soil health of trust between GO and other societal
Investments are made in land health sectors.
and diverse land cover to enhance
carbon capture prevent transboundary
disease transfer.
Economic, investment and trade
Dramatic reduction in national
productivity and GDP, potential damage
Agriculture productivity: livestock, crops to infrastructure, focus on self-sufficiency
and aquaculture (staples), closing of business across value
chains.
Farming systems are diversified through
agro-ecological to reduce climate risk,
increase water holding capacity and
enhance nutrition.

DESCRIBE DESIRED OUTCOMES & ASPIRATIONS
Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Socio- Agricultural Technology &
Economic Environment Institutional
cultural productivity Information
Private sector Nationally Market-oriented Energy sources Climate change Rural and urban
and government appropriate diversified small are increasingly measures are farmers have
invest in social protection farms using based in built into all connectivity
decent, green systems (health, agro-ecology renewable national policies, market products
employment nutrition and dominate resources. strategies shorten
with a focus livelihoods) Southern and planning. supply chains
on women, cover needs African Sectoral plans and increase
youth and of poor, agriculture. adequately transparency.
marginalized marginalized integrate
groups. and vulnerable. climate risks
and resilience
+
and are clearly
Climate proof Education and linked across
infrastructure continued sectors.
learning are
Supporting deeply valued
+
Mechanisms for Green jobs and Mechanisms to Mechanisms Create Means of Mechanism
private sector to entrepreneurship enhance farmers to incentivize guardrails monitoring for are place
invest in value of youth organizations’ and coordinate in policies and preparing for effective
chains and capacities multi-
entrepreneurship agroecological and stakeholder and to support for climate- local and
nutrition smart multi-sectoral governance oriented disease distance
practices efforts and disaster learning

Building Scenarios
MODULE 04
Use scenario narratives to fortify the vision and scenario implications to explore pathways toward the vision.

Transformative Change
MODULE 05
MODULE 05
Scenario Implications
and Transformative
Change
MODULE 05
MODULE 04
MODULE 03
MODULE 02
MODULE 01

MODULE 05
OVERVIEW OF MODULE FIVE

Introduce
foresight
Trends Analysis
Learning
Practical
exercise
exercise Horizon
scanning

LEARNING EXERCISE
MODULE 05
Test Your Learning of the West and Central Africa Foresight Framework
Before continuing with Module 5, test your understanding of building scenarios
based on information given in Module 4, by answering the questions below:
In a scenario process, what are the key factors that cause change that we
are trying to understand?

MODULE 05
Systems
Historical mapping
Theme or Visioning
key topic
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations

PROSPECTION
With a view to possible futures, we can better plan interventions
MODULE 05
to avoid unfortunate scenarios and toward more resilient and
preferred scenarios.
Developing Scenario
scenarios implications
SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS
STEP 1 STEP 2
Review Implications Brainstorm actions across multiple scenarios
SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2
Regional SCENARIO 3
integration /
trade LOW disease
prevalence
LOW technology
investment
HIGH youth
HIGH
unemployment
climate risk HIGH
political
support
LOW youth
unemployment LOW
climate LOW
risk political
support
National
borders
closing HIGH disease
investment

SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS FOR INDICATIVE ACTIONS
MODULE 05
SCENARIO 1
Regional
Integration /
trade Increase agricultural Create green jobs for
diversity, productivity, youth.
integrated systems.
HIGH youth
unemployment
Focus on vocational
Build synergies and
education.
coordination across
government sectors
LOW youth and stakeholders.
unemployment
Enhance production/
nutrient flows across
the country.
National
Create policies to
borders support/subsidize
closing integrated farming.

SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS FOR INDICATIVE ACTIONS
MODULE 05
Operational local
Invest in climate
SCENARIO 2 and national savings
proof infrastructure
to respond to
LOW disease emergencies
prevalence
Enhanced linkages
via digital networks Investment in resilient,
shock responsive food
systems
Soft skills for

HIGH
climate risk decision makers
Promote digital
agricultural solutions
(farmers on line for
digital platforms)
Increase social
LOW safety nets
climate
risk
Disaster and disease
preparedness in terms
Mobile money of resources, supplies,
infrastructure safety nets/mutual aid
HIGH disease
prevalence
Foresight allow us to build action plans –
we can analyze policy and implementation
plans with a notion of what future states
might be and what changes are needed.

IMPACT-LIKELIHOOD MATRIX
MODULE 05
STEP 3
Prioritization of
actions by looking at
impact and likelihood
Prioritization is the
art of combining
everything we think
we know about
HIGH
the past with the
Must do
fixed resources and
processes we have
right now to predict
the order in which to
do things to improve Nice to have
our collective future. Impact
Won’t do
LOW
SOONER LATER
Urgency

MODULE 05
SCENARIO EXAMPLE FROM KOUTIALA, MALI

Climatic and Non-Climate Challenges for Agriculture,
Natural Resources and Food Security
Access to farm inputs, High population

technology and equipment. growth.
Security, regulatory
Subsequent
policy and governance.
high pressure on
natural resources.
Erratic rainfall.

TRANSFORMATIVE
MODULE 05
SCENARIO
PLANNING (TSP)
• A diverse set of stakeholders
deliberated the factors that could
trigger a positive impact on
agriculture, natural resource and
food security challenges.
• Access to agricultural land

and access to water for
irrigation as main drivers were
identified and used to build
scenarios for the future.
• Scenarios were use to

develop “Vision 2035” — a
shared view of overcoming
challenges and identifying
actions to enhance rain water
management, soil fertility and Vision 2035
access to better quality seeds.
• Building relationships,
working collaboratively, and
developing cross-sectoral
Climate Smart Education Soil Improved
understanding were identified as Water Infrastructure Improvements Seeds
critical to devise and implement By 2035, strategic investments will target agriculture and natural resource
adaptation plans to transform conservation to ensure food security and improve household income in the Koutiala
agriculture and improve regional district. New, updated training sessions will allow communities to make better use of
food security. the scarce water resources and variable rainfall in the region. This will be combined
with improved rainwater and soil management and the promotion of improved seeds.

MODULE 05
Generally, it is better to have a group of motivated people, who are each committed to
a shared set of goals, agree to a prioritization together than to rely on the intuition of a
single leader.
Alignment, confidence and commitment result when the group is able prioritize together.

MODULE 05
Impact – refers to the
potential scale of impacts of
the driver on your scenario
theme.
MALI EXAMPLE
Scope
Uncertainty – in scenarios
refers to how much or how
clear we are on how a driver
will emerge or play out in the
future. High uncertainty does
Food Security, Mali, 2050
not mean ‘high improbability’, Environments, West Africa
high uncertainty can mean Livelihoods
having little knowledge of how
something may pan out.
The drivers of change
Impact - how Uncertainty - how well we

Driver impactful they are know how they will play out
(Low, High) (Low, High)
Critical uncertainties - Short Term Planning or Long
Term Planning HIGH HIGH
are drivers that are both high
impact and highly uncertain.
Government or NGO
Leadership HIGH HIGH

State Actors
MODULE 05
Dominate
Short Long
Term Term
Priorities Priorities
Dominate
Non-State
Actors Dominate

State Actors
MODULE 05
Dominate
Socio-cultural,
Socio-cultural,
education,
education,
ecosystem function,
ecosystem function,
forest cover, soil health
Economic, forest cover, soil health
Economic,
investment
investment
and trade Agriculture
and trade Agriculture
Political /
Political /
Institutional
Institutional
Short Long
Term Term
Dominate
Socio-cultural,
Socio-cultural, education,
education, gender, youth Environmental state,
gender, youth Environmental state, ecosystem function,
ecosystem function, forest cover, soil health
Economic,
forest cover, soil health
Economic, investment
investment and trade Agriculture
and trade Agriculture productivity: livestock,
productivity: livestock, crops and aquaculture
crops and aquaculture Political /
Political / Institutional
Institutional
Non-State
Actors Dominate

State Actors
MODULE 05
Dominate
Political /Institutional Political /Institutional

Governments facilitate short A slow painful transition to
term gain: cash, carbon, calories. sustainable states.
Short Long
Term Term
Dominate
Political /Institutional Political /Institutional

Ungoverned, quick and A struggle between civil society
chaotic development; dealing and the private sector that is
with crises at the expense of ultimately productive.
investment.
Non-State
Actors Dominate

SAVE YOURSELF
MODULE 05
Short
Term
Priorities
Socio-cultural, education, gender, youth
CSOs focus on emergency issues. Rural livelihoods are decreasing and there
are massive movements to urban areas.

Hyper liberal market policies lead to diversity of available food for urban
middle class, leaving rural poor highly insecure.
Political /Institutional
Non state actors are the driving force, governments are corrupt, passive
and unstable.
Environmental state, ecosystem function, forest cover, soil health

Environmental health has suffered greatly from lack of policy and there is a
scramble for new rural sources of livelihood.
Agriculture productivity
Livestock, crops and aquaculture – Fiercely expansive presence of
commercial agricultural.
After Palazzo et al, 2016 Non-State

Actors Dominate

SAVE YOURSELF
MODULE 05
Short
Term
Priorities
After Palazzo et al, 2016 Non-State

Actors Dominate

SELF DETERMINATION
MODULE 05
Socio-cultural, education, gender, youth
State Actors
Investments in education.
Dominate

Longer term investments and access to markets for rural population,
done on a small budget because donor funds decline because of disputes
about outside influence
Political /Institutional
A slow difficult transition to sustainable governance of food security,
environments or livelihoods.
Environmental state, ecosystem function, forest cover, soil health

Agricultural intensification and extended land use have impacts on water
availability and quality produces challenges in the region’s development.
Agriculture productivity
Direct investments in agriculture.
Long
Term
Priorities
After Palazzo et al, 2016 Dominate

SELF DETERMINATION
MODULE 05
State Actors
Dominate
Long
Term
Priorities
After Palazzo et al, 2016 Dominate

Cartoon representations of the four CCAFS West Africa
MODULE 05
scenarios along the axes of uncertainty
Source: Drawings by artist Andre Daniel Tapsoba

MODULE 05
REFLECTIONS AND
GUIDING QUESTIONS
The reflection stage of the foresight

process follows on from the prospection
stage described in Module 4.
in this stage it is important to

understand the implications of scenarios
and to consider elements that allow for
transformational change. A key question

the sicario method aims to answer is:
What might we want to do differently?

MODULE 06
MODULE 06
Reﬂection and
Strategy
MODULE 06
MODULE 05
MODULE 04
MODULE 03
MODULE 02
MODULE 01

MODULE 06
OVERVIEW OF MODULE SIX

Introduce
foresight
Trends Analysis
Learning
Practical
exercise
exercise Horizon
scanning

MODULE 06
Systems
Historical mapping
Theme or Visioning
key topic
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations

REFLECTION

MODULE 06
Backcasting Pathway Transformation Behaviour
development actions shift mapping
& trade-offs
BACKCASTING BACKCASTING STEPS

is an approach that starts
with defining a vision Step into 2035 and
or desirable future and position yourself in the
then works backwards successfully achieved
to identify key actions, vision such that the future
partnerships, policy becomes the present.
changes that will connect
that future to the present. Look back to 2021 and ask
CORE GUIDING ”what do we remember
QUESTIONS OF about how we got to
here?”; “what actions,
FORESIGHT
partnerships, policy changes,
etc. did we carry out” to get
What seems to be
to the 2035 success?
happening?
What’s really Remember which barriers

happening? we overcame and how we
addressed them.
What do we want to QUESTION?
happen?
Backcasting asks the question, As best possible identify
What might happen? “how did we get here?” when key activities
and contributes to shifting took place.
What do we need to do? mindsets to be creative in our
planning process.

LEARNING EXERCISE

MODULE 06
Backcasting
In this exercise we will consider one aspect of our 2035 vision as if we have successfully
achieved and look back to see what we did to get to this day.
1 HOW DID WE GET TO 2 HOW DID WE 3 HOW WERE SOME

WHERE WE ARE NOW? OVERCOME OF THE NEW
THE BARRIERS STAKEHOLDER
We are in 2035 and have ON THE WAY? GROUPS WE
successfully achieved this aspect BROUGHT IN?
of our vision and desired future:
To achieve our
To achieve our vision,
success, we had to
Outcome. Farmers and what were some of
overcome barriers.
pastoralists across the 19 CORAF the surprising new
How did we do
member countries are using partnerships we
that?
climate resilient, climate-smart, formed?
and agroecological approaches
Describe what you
and ably providing diverse Give us an example of a new
remember about how we
sources of food to equitably meet partnership we formed to
were able to minimize the
food and nutritional security achieve our vision.
effects of the drought in
requirements of rural and urban
Mali, Burkina Faso, and
populations.
Cape Verde in 2026?
Describe what you remember about

how we managed to successfully
achieve this and when.
2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

REFLECTION

MODULE 06
& trade-offs
TRANSFORMATIVE PATHWAYS
AND TRADEOFFS

framework and
• Pathways outline the actions, actors and time frames when to apply it?
necessary to achieve the agreed outcome.
• Pathways are applied in
• They are often called impact pathways or theories of change. the REFLECTION and
STRATEGY stages.
Photo: ©Axel Fassio (CIFOR)

MODULE 06
CLIMATE RESILIENT PATHWAYS Pathway
Action Plan
Barriers
& Causes
Suggested
Outcome Stakeholders Actions Existing
Assets
What
Scope &
Timeline Who
By when
How
Output
Associated
outcome
Overall outcome
Photo: ©Phoenix Han (unsplash)

MODULE 06
CLIMATE RESILIENT PATHWAYS Pathway
Action Plan
Barriers Based on the
& Causes barriers and
assets, what are
Suggested Identify current
suggested actions
Outcome Stakeholders Actions Existing assumptions,
to achieve the
desired outcome?
Assets concerns, barriers
and behaviours
Describe Who are the that will keep the What
Scope & the desired stakeholders What What is desired outcome of
Timeline outcome of involved in interventions, already in this pathway from Who
the pathway, this theme? policies or place that being achieved.
what is the partnerships supports the By when
Identify Revisit
ideal outcome can be intended
the scope stakeholders
within the time implemented outcome? How
characterize required to
period? to achieve
the main overcome the Output
the desired
theme, location barriers to see if
outcome?
and timeline more actors need Associated
to be engaged. outcome
Overall outcome
Photo: ©Phoenix Han (unsplash)

CLIMATE RESILIENT PATHWAYS

MODULE 06
Scope and time Assets
Climate smart, agroecological solutions to • Building off local CBO networks engaged in
address water scarcity and build climate integrated farming training.
resilience in agricultural systems by 2030. • Local informal labour sharing agreements.
• Agroecological practice promoters.
Outcome • Conservation agriculture groups.
Farmers (women, men and youth) are applying • Existing projects and programs.
ecosystem based, agroecological, climate smart
and water saving practices and technologies to
adapt farming systems to effects of climate change Barriers
and improve food security and profitability.
• Lack of understanding of relationship between land
management and water availability.
Suggested actions • Lack of diversity (crops/livestock/fish/multi-purpose
• Promoting short distribution webs and build

•
trees) in farming systems.
Separate sectoral advice to farmers (health,
local markets.
• Promoting integrated farming systems to
agricultural extension, nutrition, veterinarians,
irrigation).
increase diversification (crops, livestock, fish,
trees).
• Lack of integrated water management policies.
• Build capacity for sustainable land management

practices and water harvesting techniques.
• Develop seed saving networks.
Underlying causes
• Integrated pest monitoring and management. • Unsustainable agricultural practices.
• Labour sharing across farms. • Limited access to local and higher scale markets
• Promote participatory governance of food for diverse products.
systems. • No cross-sectoral planning processes for water
• Expand regenerative and conservation farming. management and climate resilience actions.

LEARNING EXERCISE

MODULE 06
Develop a climate smart, ecosystems based strategy / enabling environment
Activity 01 Who
How
Associated
outcome
Policy and enabling
environment that
By when A technical committee / expert
working group to provide evidence, promotes a policy incentive
What Agriculture, water, environment, and implementation path
Year 1 technical backstopping and input
into policy amendment process for ecosystem based
Develop a Research organizations working approaches in farming
climate smart, on livestock, aquaculture, climate Lobby and establish key relevant systems
ecosystems smart agriculture and landscapes policy contacts and relationships
based strategy Overall
/ enabling National Farmers Associations
Draft practical guidance for
implementation of climate smart
outcome
environment and ecosystem based approaches Output Farmers (women, men
NGOs promoting agroecological and and youth) are applying
water saving approaches Amended language, ecosystem based, climate
targets and goals to smart and water saving
FAO relevant policy and practices and technologies
strategic frameworks to adapt farming systems to
to explicitly mention effects of climate change and
ecosystem based and improve food security and
agro-ecological principles profitability.
Activity 02 Who By when

How
Awareness campaign on value
and benefits of integrated
Year 2 & 3 farming systems, sustainable Associated
Agriculture, water, environment, agriculture and climate outcome
What Extension services resilience X number farmers
are trained
Build capacity NGOS Develop capacity materials for in integrated
and incentivize agroecological approaches and farming systems
integrated farming UN FAO integrated farming systems Overall
systems using
Integrate and expand training
outcome
agroecological Farmers groups
into existing farmer groups/ Farmers (women, men
practices Women’s organizations & youth farmer field schools Output and youth) are applying
groups ecosystem based, climate
Farmers including women, smart and water saving
Development partners, investors men and youth are practices and technologies
Media adopting: agroecological to adapt farming systems
practicing water to effects of climate change
harvesting measures, and improve food security
sustainable land and profitability.
management activities
higher diverse systems
for farming

CHECKING FOR TRADE-OFFS

MODULE 06
Agroecological
climate smart Outcome
processes Enabling environment
Develop a climate that promotes a
smart, ecosystem Vested interest in small grains policy incentive and
based strategy implementation path
could result in fertilizer subsidies
for ecosystem-based
that may disincentivize integrated approaches in farming
farming systems or seed saving systems
Markets for
small grains Outcome
Would farmers potentially trade
Awareness Increased demand
campaign on the off maize subsidies for drought
for producing,
benefits of small resilient crops
processing,
grains marketing and
consuming small
grains
Promoting subsidies and
fertilization versus agro-
ecological approaches
Digital
extension Outcome
Develop linked radio
and mobile phone Functioning
communications for distance extension
distance extension services to support
service remote farmers in applying
communities climate smart
practices
Photos: TOP | © Alex Fassio (CFOR) MIDDLE | ©S.Kilungu (CCAFS)

MODULE 06
Systems
Historical mapping
Theme or Visioning
key topic
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations

REFLECTION

MODULE 06
& trade-offs
As opposed to incremental
adaptation, which
Today’s interim report the IPCC says aims to
from the UNFCCC is a
maintain existing systems
red alert for our planet.
It shows governments through measures such as
are nowhere close to introducing more drought-
the level of ambition resistant varieties of crops
QUESTION? needed to limit climate or using more efficient
When you hear the term change to 1.5 degrees irrigation, transformative
transformative change and meet the goals of adaptation is intended to
what do you think of or the Paris Agreement
how would you define it?
change the fundamental
Secretary-General António
attributes of agricultural
Guteres on the report
findings (February 2021) systems in response to
actual or expected climate
and its effects, often at a
UN Climate Panel tells us we have
scale and ambition greater
10 years left to begin a radical than incremental activities.
transformation of this civilization to move World Resources Institute
quickly to a zero emissions society… we
need a new economic vision and a game
plan ….we are moving from the age of
progress to the age of resilience”
Jeremy Rifkin
Photo: ©Freepik

KEY TERMS

MODULE 06
Transformational change - includes major Incremental change - refers to change that
long-term changes in the way we operate and may occurs slowly and without necessarily modifying the
shift us between or into new ‘systems’ and processes. essence of social structures or organizational practices.
TRANSFORMATIVE
CHANGE
• The future that is

coming often requires
significant change.
• Transformative change
requires sometimes
radically new REFLECTIONS AND
interventions, policies
and partnerships. GUIDING QUESTIONS
• It requires disruptive WHAT MIGHT TRANSFORM?
technology which can be Transformational Shifts
defined as any innovation
that dramatically changes
• Markets to networks
the way consumers, • Transactions to Flows
businesses and industries • Ownership to Access
operate.
• Sellers and Buyers in
• Moves us beyond negotiation- to producers
incremental change and users in networks
and results in major
long-term changes in
• Gross Domestic Product to
the way systems operate. Quality of Life
• Productivity to Regenerative
Jeremy Rifkin
231 Photo: ©Neil Palmer (CIAT) RETURN TO CONTENTS

MODULE 06
QUESTIONS &
ANSWERS
WHAT IS A
REFLECTIONS TRANSFORMATION?
AND GUIDING
QUESTIONS
WHAT MIGHT An agriculture and food
systems transformation
TRANSFORM?
is a significant
The next industrial redistribution—by at
revolution will emphasize: least a third—of land,
• Communications labour and capital,
• Power/energy and/ or outputs
• Transportation,
and outcomes (e.g.
types and amounts
mobility and logistics
of production and
• Education consumption of goods
• Productivity to and services) within a
Regenerative timeframe of a decade”
Steiner et al. 2020
Jeremy Rifkin
Photo: ©Freepik

MODULE 06
CATEGORIES OF TRANSFORMATIVE ACTIONS
INTEGRATED AND ADAPTIVE FLEXIBLE, ROBUST AND NOVEL PARTNERSHIPS,

INTERVENTIONS SYNERGISTIC INSTITUTIONS CROSS SECTORAL OR
AND POLICIES THAT DRIVE MULTI-STAKEHOLDER
IMPLEMENTATION RELATIONSHIPS

CATEGORIES OF TRANSFORMATIVE ACTIONS

MODULE 06
INTEGRATED AND ADAPTIVE FLEXIBLE, ROBUST AND NOVEL PARTNERSHIPS,
INTERVENTIONS SYNERGISTIC INSTITUTIONS CROSS SECTORAL OR
• A monitoring, reporting, and AND POLICIES THAT DRIVE MULTI-STAKEHOLDER
verification system. IMPLEMENTATION RELATIONSHIPS
• New design/infrastructure. • Changes in decision making • New set of actors working together
• Scaling existing innovations. processes (Develop formalized in an informal or formal setting.
• Awareness, knowledge, skills, office in financial planning for cross
• New cross sectoral, multi-
empowerment development. sectoral coordination, joint planning
stakeholder relationships.
• Knowledge/data platforms. and joint budgetary allocations).
•
• New technology. • A form of decentralization or
Pooling resources, money or labour
• A lifestyle or behaviour change. distributed decision making.

for synergy .
• Finance/incentives/subsidies • Nested scale policy design.

• Trans-generational and thematic
partnerships.
(Financial technology to get private
sector to directly pay farmers for
• Time bound reflections on policies.
restoring land health). • Cross sectoral policy

• New businesses and business development and financing
models (loan facility for smaller frameworks.
holder farmers that can geo-stamp).

REFLECTION

MODULE 06
We often build our plans and
strategies based on actions that Backcasting Pathway Behaviour
Transformation
result in incremental change – development actions shift mapping
& trade-offs
when we need actions that are
transformative and suitable for
the future that is coming.
BEHAVIOUR SHIFT MAPPING
OUTCOME MAPPING
What is it
A framework developed by the International Development Research
Using foresight Centre (IDRC) for systematic capture and tracking of observable
changes in the behaviours, actions, activities and relationships of
tools and
targeted stakeholders.
methods, we
Why we use it
can plan the
To plan, track and adapt engagement with target stakeholders
transformational
(boundary partners) to towards desired outcomes.
change that will
be needed to
move towards the KEY ELEMENTS AND STEPS
future we want. • Intentional Design.
• Outcome and Performance Monitoring.
• Evaluation Planning.

OUTCOME MAPPING

MODULE 06
INTENTIONAL DESIGN
• STEP 1: Vision
Regreening Africa
• STEP 2: Mission
project working
• STEP 3: Boundary Partners
• STEP 4: Outcome Challenges
across eight
• STEP 5: Progress Markers countries in Africa
• STEP 6: Strategy Maps In this example, a simplified
• STEP 7: Organizational Practices version of the outcome mapping
EVALUATION
PLANNING
• STEP 12: Evaluation
Broad policy issue Targeted Outcome Planned
Plan
or implementation Stakeholder(s) Challenge Progress
OUTCOME & PREFORMANCE challenge being Markers
MONITORING
•
addressed
STEP 8: Monitoring Priorities
• STEP 9: Outcome Journals
• STEP 10: Strategy Journal
• STEP 11: Performance Journal Planned Actual Evidence for Change/lesson/
engagement engagement progress on activities for
strategies undertaken outcome next year
for year challenge &
progress markers
QUESTION? The process is:

Have you already witnessed • Being used to track project wide practice and policy influence
a behavior shift of in each country.
stakeholders you are trying
to influence in your work?
• Allows the project countries to reflect on progress annually to
be adaptive and to include behaviour shifting activities in the
next annual budget and workplan.
MODULE 06
Systems
Historical mapping
Theme or Visioning
key topic
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations

STRATEGY
KEY STEPS

MODULE 06
1 Using your stakeholder map,
Develop Sequencing
prioritize linkages between
Multi-stakeholder
road map relationships co-ordination stakeholders that can be easily
leveraged.
STRATEGY PHASE 2 Outline power players – these would

be strategic meetings and where you
SEQUENCING RELATIONSHIPS need to get buy-ins or endorsement.
What is it Why we use it
3 Plan a set of engagements (e.g.
Sequencing relationships Understanding the
personal introductions, phone
is a partnership leveraging stakeholder you need
calls, official meetings, or corridor
approach that builds on your to engage and getting
conversation).
stakeholder map and relies on them on board in order
shuttle diplomacy and iterative of priority and power of 4 Analyse the feedback from each
conversations and dialogues to requires multiple steps engagement which may alter your
strengthen engagement. for relationship building. sequence.
STAKEHOLDER MAP PRIORITIZE LINKAGES AND PLAN A SET OF ENGAGEMENTS

“POWER PLAYERS
• Personal Introduction
• Personal Meetings
• Phone Calls
• Political Meetings
• Workshops
• Corridor Conversations
Analyze feedback from

238 each engagement RETURN TO CONTENTS
STRATEGY
INFORMATIONS FLOW

MODULE 06
Develop Sequencing Multi-stakeholder
What is it road map relationships co-ordination
The approach is a systematic process to

understand what information, what format, and
what quality is flowing between stakeholders.
MULTI-STAKEHOLDER
Why we use it CO-ORDINATION
To get an accurate understanding of key evidence
What is it
and where there are gaps in information synthesis
or collaboration and to motivate for more synergy • Space for collaboration and partnerships
in information collection and better support between different interest groups ranging from
stakeholder linkages. businesses, government, civil society, and science
• Purposefully organised interactive processes
to foster participation in dialogue and decision-
KEY STEPS making about shared challenges, policy and
1 For your relevant theme or sector, and with implementation actions
relevant stakeholders, start your information
flow with the most local level of information
collection Why we use it
2
• Roles and mandates of MSPs vary but the aim
Trace how that information (e.g. nutrition
is to develop collaborative decision-making and
status, dietary diversity) goes from a
multi-level governance processes that enable
household level to a decision making level
shared perspectives, new understanding, and
(e.g. district budget allocation for nutrition)
collective commitment for solutions
3 Along your flow, highlight the format of • Unlock people’s potential to cooperate and
information (e.g. verbal, ledgers or hand- innovate to reach sustainable development goals.
written) and the quality.

KEY LESSONS FOR SUCCESSFUL MSPs

MODULE 06
Scope, mandate and engagement Social capital:
design developing relationships
and strategies
Conduct a situation analysis,
stakeholder mapping, tease Use visioning, root
out inequity issues in decision cause analysis and
making processes and benefit outcome mapping
sharing. tools to prioritise
issues.
Tailor the stakeholder
engagement and collaborative Examine future
process design to the context: scenarios, identify
goals and agree on
Actors: power dynamics change strategies
(gender, ethnic, including actions
economic), history and responsibilities.
of past and present
initiatives, time and Deepen
funding available. understanding and
trust.
Governance: control
of decision making, Secure commitment
recognition of rights, to processes and
commitment to goals by building
decentralisation, consensus and
institutional landscape. political will.

KEY LESSONS FOR SUCCESSFUL MSPs

MODULE 06
Collaborative Reflective and iterative
development and learning cycles
implementation of
actions Implementation
with reflective
Build capacities learning cycles
of key that feeds back
stakeholder to into adaptive
lead and deliver management Sustainability and
- training and -monitoring exit strategy
knowledge progress against
sharing including agreed criteria of Reviewed
field visits and success . periodically in
exchange visits. relation to goals
Create a learning and associated
Secure resources culture and timeframe.
and support. environment to
Co-design and generate lessons. Depend on
implement available human
Knowledge co-
detailed action and financial
creation and
plans. resources,
communication,
commitment
Feedback ensure feedback
from members,
evidence to loop mechanisms
institutional
influence national (multi directional:
structure and
and subnational national, regional
political will.
policy. and local).

MODULE 06
Photo: ©Freepik
FORESIGHT PROCESS
FLOW FOR A FULL STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS
Timebound
Prioritize outcomes, reflection current
Scope, problem backcasting, identifying and probable
definition, initial Causal analyses, transformative actions, developments and
system mapping drivers, and testing existing plans review strategy
uncertainties or policies
1 7
3 5
2 4 6
Trend analysis and Strategy
Development of
strategic horizon development and
scenarios and
scanning (signals implementation
visioning
and unknowns) plan
FLOW FOR A FULL STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS

MODULE 06
Set the scope Analyse causes, Identifying Timebound
• Define the theme, drivers and transformative reflection and
problem statement, uncertainties actions evaluation
timeline • Define the theme, • Consider • Define a system to
• Set the geopolitical problem statement, implications of monitor progress
boundary timeline scenarios and assess results
• Map existing • Set the geopolitical
• Prioritize outcomes • Examine probable
institutional boundary
developments
arrangements, • Map existing • Carry out
selecting existing institutional backcasting • Update and revise
targets and arrangements, selecting the strategy
• Identify
national priorities existing targets and
• Map the national priorities
transformative
actions
7
stakeholders • Map the stakeholders
1 3 5
2
4 6
Analyse the trends
and scan the horizon Strategy
Development of
development and
• Create a plan to identify, scenarios and
implementation
develop and analyse visioning
relevant historical trends • Test existing plans or
• Develop scenario
• Using the STEEP policies
story lines
framework, collect and describe • Use transformative
diverse information possible futures actions to identify
sources who, what, when,
• Analyse the trends • Develop three-
outputs and
to detect ‘signals’ of part vision
outcomes
disruption or new trends • Reconcile vision
• Define roles and
• Define known with scenario
responsibilities
unknowns desired futures

MODULE 06
REFLECTIONS AND GUIDING QUESTIONS
The foresight framework has been built around seven
key stages with key questions:
Input - what is the context? What is happening right now? Prospection - what might happen that we
have not thought about? This is a critical
Analysis - deepening the understanding of the above input stage of the foresight process and it requires
questions; thinking of multiple different potential
futures;
Interpretation - why is it happening? This is where

foresight differs from strategic planning, here we dig deeper Reflection - here we consider what we
to understand why something is happening; might want to do differently; and
Plan - what do we want to experience in the future and Strategy - what will we do differently? This
what might get in our way? Here we consider what we might is where we build our new strategy based on
do to get there; our insights of what the future may be like.
Key points to note:

• Selected foresight tools and methods are presented, and their application demonstrated for each stage of the framework.
• It is important to note that data, evidence, knowledge, and creativity as well as stakeholder engagement and participation
are steps that can be applied across the entire foresight process. Foresight is a participatory process that needs
continued engagement of stakeholders as well as data and evidence as tools and methods are applied.
• Foresight application is demonstrated in the context of climate-resilient agricultural development in the WCA region.
The foresight methods and tools chosen are therefore specific to this theme and may need to be reconsidered for
appropriateness, in the context of your study.

MODULE 06
Historical Systems
Visioning
Cross
relevant Multi-
Setting the
mapping
Mapping the
stakeholders
Influence
and power
relations

REFERENCES
Across Europe: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/ European Foresight Platform. (n.d.). For Learn: What is foresight? Retrieved from
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Ainslie, A. (2011). CCAFS Scenarios Development workshop: What, why and
how? . Retrieved from https://www.slideshare.net/cgiarclimate/ccafs-scenarios- European Commission and European Environment Agency. (n.d.). Uncertainty
development-workshop-what-why-and-how. guidance. Retrieved from European Climate Adaptation Platform: Sharing
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Agriculture expansion Across West Africa, 2013. Available at: https://eros.usgs.
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Auricht, C., Dixon, J., Boffa, J., van Velthuizen, H., & Fischer, G. (2019). Chapter 2:
studies.
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Bourgeois, R. (2012). The state of foresight in food and agriculture and the Jackson, M. (2013). Practical foresight guide. Shaping tomorrow.
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REFERENCES CONT.
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FORESIGHT

Published by Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate

About AICCRA | Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research in Africa

Design and Layout | Debra-Jean Harte

FORESIGHT KEY FRAMEWORK STAGES 7

STRUCTURE OF THE TOOLKIT 8

Understanding Trends and

STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND PARTICIPATION

SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS LONG TERM FUTURE PLANNING

Input Analysis Interpretation Plan Prospection Reflection Strategy

MODULE 01 MODULE 02 MODULE 03 MODULE 04 MODULE 05 MODULE 06

MODULE 01 MODULE 02 MODULE 03 MODULE 04 MODULE 05 MODULE 06

Drivers Are factors, issues or trends that cause change

Foresight Structured tools, methods and thinking styles to

Foresight A small core group that builds the foresight

Foresight A broad mix of identified key stakeholders that

Visioning A well-known prospective technique with a

Wild Card A low-probability but high-impact event that

Term Description Term Description

Risk Intersection of hazards, exposure, and

Multi-Stakeholder Consists of a mix of representatives or

System An interconnected set of elements that is

Systems View Understands life as networks of relationships.

Transboundary Epidemic disease which is highly contagious

Photo: ©Adobe Stock

RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS EARLY WARNING RESPONSE refers

3. Set out the scope

4. Learn the tools of

5. Reflect on two Learning Practical

2. Unpredictable 6. Controllable 3. Comfortable on certain topics but

What processes or tools do

New realities are being experienced, some of which are

• Tools that are strict and inflexible (e.g. legal and

This causes severe implementation problems in an

Systematically examining projects, strategies, and policies to

with actual or expected adaptation, i.e., climate risk screening; and

and shocks and keep mainstreaming.

functioning much the Climate-mainstreaming

22 Photo: ©Max-O_TVsaeZNlE (unsplash)

IPCC climate risk framework

IPCC CLIMATE RISK FRAMEWORK

Magnitude Extent Rate of change

• Floods • Sand or dust storms

• Tropical cyclones and • Sea level rise

• Extreme temperatures • Changes to

Africa as a whole has the highest mortality-related

Furthermore, foresight is based on the principle Key Things to

Photo Top: ©Adobe Stock

“Regarding inclusion of women, how best can

STEP 1. Make sure women are present.

STEP 2. Encourage women to speak (e.g. call on them).

STEP 3. Create opportunities for women to work with other women

Photo: ©Axel Fassio (CIFOR)

IPCC CLIMATE RISK FRAMEWORK

BIOPHYSICAL SOCIAL VULNERABILITY

30 Photos: ©Adobe Stock

Photo: ©Neil Palmer (CIAT)

CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENTS

Identify hotspots where exposure,

Ecological-economic models (Fischer et al, 2005)

Foresight is a set of tools and methods to practically

What does it mean to be

Better anticipation: to Policy innovation: to spur Future-proofing: