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DECLARATION
I, Aman Agarwal hereby declare that the project titled
"Stock Market Volatility and Foreign Institutional
Investors". submitted by me for Purpose of the
Buisness Research Project, is my original work. All
the information presented in this project is authentic
and has been gathered and analyzed by me. Any
external sources used for reference have been
properly cited and acknowledged within the project.
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CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project entitled “Stock Market
Volatility and Foreign Institutional Investors”. A Study in
Stock Market Submitted by Aman Agarwal Studying at
Laxmi Narayan College, Jharsuguda. This Project was an
Authentic work done under the guidance of Mrs.
Swagatika Barik
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First of all, I would like to thank my project guide, Mrs.
SWAGATIKA BARIK (Lecturer in Commerce), for her
comments and suggestions which made this project
paper possible. I would also like to thank all the faculty
members of the commerce departments & student of
LAXMI NARAYAN COLLEGE, JHARSUGUDA for taking the
time out to fill the questionnaire for the project work. I
would like to extend my heartfelt gratitude to My project
guide, Mrs. SWAGATIKA BARIK , who have facilitated
students to fills the questionnaire. Last but not the least,
I would like to express my unending thanks to my family.
Who supported me financially and helped me in the
timely completion of the project.
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ABSTRACT
Volatility as a key characteristic of the Indian stock market,
influencing investor behavior, risk management strategies,
and market dynamics. It's important to acknowledge that
volatility can present both opportunities and challenges
for investors, impacting trading decisions, portfolio
performance, and market stability. Additionally, you may
want to highlight the various factors that contribute to
volatility in the Indian market, such as economic indicators,
corporate earnings, global market trends, geopolitical
events, and regulatory changes. Understanding and
managing volatility is essential for investors and
policymakers to navigate the complexities of the Indian
stock market effectively.
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TABLE OF CONTENT
SL. PARTICULARS PAGE
NO. NO.
CHAPTER - 1
1.1 INTRODUCTION TO VOLATILITY.
CHAPTER - 4
4.1
4.2
4.3
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CHAPTER – 1
INTRODUCTION TO VOLATILITY
IN STOCK MARKET AND
FINANCIAL INSTITUION
INVESTMENT
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CHAPTER – 1.1
INTRODUCTION TO VOLATILITY
What Is Volatility ?
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3. Trading Opportunities: Volatility creates trading opportunities for investors
and traders. Price fluctuations driven by volatility can create opportunities
for short-term traders to profit from market movements. Volatile stocks
may experience rapid price changes, providing opportunities for traders to
buy low and sell high.
4. Option Pricing: Volatility is a key input in options pricing models, such as the
Black-Scholes model. Higher volatility increases the value of options because
it increases the likelihood of the underlying asset reaching a certain price
level before expiration. Options traders use volatility to assess the relative
attractiveness of different options strategies.
5. Market Sentiment: Volatility can reflect market sentiment and investor
emotions. Periods of high volatility often coincide with uncertainty and fear
among investors, while low volatility may signal complacency or confidence.
Changes in volatility levels can provide insights into shifts in market
sentiment and expectations.
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CHAPTER: 1.2
Since then, portfolio flows from foreign investors (FII) have emerged as a
major source of capital for emerging market economies (EMEs) such as
Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Besides, the surge in foreign
portfolio flows since 1990s can be attributed to greater integration among
international financial markets, advancement in technology and growing
interest in EMEs among FIIs such as private equity funds and hedge funds so
as to achieve international diversification and reduce the risk in their
portfolios.
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FII flows into India registered substantial growth from a meager US$4
million in 1992-93 to over US$ 32 billion in 2010-11
(SEBI, 2011:76). FII inflows underwent a sea-saw movement in India during
the last decade. They registered spectacular growth in India GDP, robust
corporate performance and an investment-friendly environment. Portfolio
investment flows into India turned negative (outflow of US$ 12 billion)
during 2008-9 (ibid). mainly due to the heightened risk aversion of foreign
investors , emanating from the global financial meltdown.
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this regard. The present study examines the causes and effects of FII net
flows into Indian financial markets with the support of empirical data for the
period April 2003-March 2011, i.e., a time span of eight years, covering the
period before, during and after the eruption of the global financial crisis.
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implications for the economy as a whole, affecting trade balances and
inflation.
7. Regulatory Compliance: Foreign investors need to comply with regulations
set by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and other relevant
authorities. Their participation helps in maintaining the integrity and
transparency of the Indian stock market.
SUMMARY:- Foreign investors play a crucial role in the Indian stock market,
contributing to its liquidity, efficiency, and integration with global financial
markets. However, their activities can also introduce volatility and risks,
which necessitate effective regulatory oversight and risk management
measures.
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CHAPTER – 2
THEORITICAL OVERVIEW ON
VOLATILITY IN STOCK MARKET
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CHAPTER – 2.1
IN STOCK MARKET
OVERVIEW
Here's a theoretical overview of volatility in the stock market:
1. Types of Volatility:
Historical Volatility: Calculated based on past price data, historical
volatility reflects the actual price fluctuations observed in the market.
Implied Volatility: Derived from options pricing models, implied
volatility reflects market expectations of future price fluctuations. It is
inferred from the prices of options contracts and represents the
market's consensus on future volatility levels.
2. Causes of Volatility:
Market Events: Volatility can be triggered by various factors such as
economic indicators, corporate earnings releases, geopolitical events,
changes in monetary policy, and global market trends.
Investor Sentiment: Market sentiment, including fear, greed,
optimism, and pessimism, can significantly influence volatility. Shifts in
investor sentiment often lead to changes in buying and selling
pressure, contributing to price volatility.
Liquidity Conditions: Market liquidity, or the ease of buying and selling
assets, can impact volatility. Lower liquidity tends to exacerbate price
fluctuations, especially during periods of market stress.
3. Role in Risk Management:
Volatility is a key input in risk management models and helps investors
assess the potential downside risk of their portfolios. Higher volatility
implies greater risk, while lower volatility suggests lower risk.
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Risk managers use volatility measures to calculate risk metrics such as
value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR), which estimate
the potential losses of investment portfolios under different scenarios.
4. Impact on Investment Strategies:
Volatility influences investment strategies and asset allocation
decisions. Investors may adjust their portfolios based on volatility
levels, seeking to balance risk and return.
Some investment strategies, such as volatility trading and options
strategies, are specifically designed to capitalize on market volatility
and price fluctuations.
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4. Impact on Corporate Performance: Volatility can impact the
performance of businesses listed on the stock market. Sharp declines
in stock prices may erode the market capitalization of companies,
affecting their ability to raise capital, invest in growth opportunities, or
attract investors. Volatility may also affect corporate financing costs,
making it more expensive for companies to borrow funds.
5. Global Economic Impact: Volatility in one stock market can have
spillover effects on other financial markets and the broader economy,
particularly in an interconnected global financial system. Sharp
movements in stock prices may affect investor sentiment, consumer
confidence, and business investment decisions, potentially influencing
economic growth prospects worldwide.
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4. Monetary Policy: Central bank policies, including interest rate decisions,
monetary stimulus programs, and quantitative easing measures, can impact
market volatility. Changes in monetary policy direction or unexpected
announcements by central banks may lead to volatility in bond yields,
currency exchange rates, and equity markets as investors adjust their
expectations.
5. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment, including fear, greed, optimism, and
pessimism, plays a significant role in driving market volatility. Sentiment
indicators, such as the VIX (Volatility Index) or surveys of investor
confidence, reflect market participants' perceptions of risk and uncertainty,
influencing their trading decisions and contributing to market fluctuations.
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CHAPTER – 2.2
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CHAPTER – 3
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CHAPTER – 3.1
1. Global Financial Crisis (2008): The Indian stock market witnessed a sharp
decline during the global financial crisis of 2008. The Sensex plummeted
from its peak of around 21,000 points in January 2008 to below 9,000 points
by October 2008, representing a substantial loss of over 50% of its value.
2. Eurozone Debt Crisis (2011): In 2011, concerns about sovereign debt issues
in several Eurozone countries, including Greece, Italy, and Spain, sparked a
sell-off in global financial markets, including India. The Sensex experienced a
significant decline, falling from around 20,000 points in January 2011 to
below 16,000 points by September 2011.
3. Taper Tantrum (2013): In 2013, the announcement of the U.S. Federal
Reserve's intention to taper its bond-buying program, known as the "taper
tantrum," triggered a sell-off in emerging markets, including India. The
Sensex experienced a sharp decline, dropping from around 20,000 points in
May 2013 to below 17,000 points by August 2013.
4. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in
early 2020 led to widespread panic selling in global financial markets,
including India. The Sensex experienced a rapid decline, falling from around
41,000 points in February 2020 to below 26,000 points by March 2020,
marking one of the fastest and deepest market downturns in history.
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MAJOR DOWNs OF INDIA STOCK MARKET DUE TO SCAMS (SENSEX)
Several major scams have occurred in the Indian stock market over the
years, leading to significant declines in stock indices like the Sensex. Some
notable scams include:
1. Harshad Mehta Scam (1992): One of the most infamous stock market scams
in Indian history, the Harshad Mehta scam involved manipulation of the
stock market by stockbroker Harshad Mehta. Mehta exploited loopholes in
the banking system to carry out a massive securities fraud. The scam led to a
sharp decline in the stock market, with the Sensex falling from around 4,500
points in April 1992 to below 2,800 points by May 1992.
2. Ketan Parekh Scam (2001): Ketan Parekh, a prominent stockbroker, was
involved in a scam that revolved around price manipulation of certain stocks
using funds obtained through illegal means. The scam contributed to a
market downturn, with the Sensex falling from around 5,000 points in
February 2001 to below 3,500 points by May 2001.
3. Satyam Scandal (2009): The Satyam Computer Services scandal involved
accounting fraud perpetrated by the company's founder and chairman,
Ramalinga Raju. Raju inflated the company's revenues and profits through
fictitious transactions, leading to a significant decline in Satyam's stock price
and impacting investor confidence in the Indian stock market. The Sensex
fell from around 20,000 points in January 2009 to below 8,000 points by
March 2009, partly due to the fallout from the Satyam scandal amid the
global financial crisis.
4. NSEL Scam (2013): The National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL) scam
involved irregularities in commodity trading contracts offered by the
exchange. The scam led to defaults on payments to investors and a crisis of
confidence in the commodities market. While the direct impact on the
Sensex was relatively limited, the scam contributed to broader concerns
about regulatory oversight and investor protection in India's financial
markets.
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MAJOR Ups IN INDIA STOCK MARKET :
Several significant upswings or bull runs have occurred in the Indian stock
market, resulting in substantial increases in stock indices like the Sensex.
Some major upswings in the Indian stock market include :
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6. Economic Reforms and Policy Measures: Periods of economic reforms,
policy announcements, and investor-friendly measures by the government
often lead to optimism in the stock market, driving up stock prices. For
example, announcements of structural reforms, tax reforms, or initiatives to
boost infrastructure and manufacturing sectors have historically led to
positive market reactions and uptrends.
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CHAPTER – 3.2
Learning from the Indian stock market can provide several insights into
both local and global economic trends, as well as investment strategies.
Here are some key takeaways:
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"Sensex Index Movement: A Visual Analysis"
70000
60000
50000
40000
sensex points closing
30000 sensex points opening
20000
10000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
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CHAPTER – 3.3
The influx or exodus of foreign investors into or out of the Indian stock
market often has a significant impact on the Sensex points, reflecting
the sentiments and perceptions of international investors towards the
Indian economy. Let's break down what typically happens before and
after foreign investors enter or exit the Indian stock market:
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investment strategies. Their investment decisions may favor certain
sectors over others, leading to sector-specific rallies or corrections in
the market. The Sensex composition may reflect these sectoral
preferences, with some sectors outperforming others.
3. Market Stability: While foreign investment can bring liquidity and
boost market sentiment, it can also introduce volatility and risk.
Sudden changes in global economic conditions, geopolitical events, or
shifts in investor sentiment can prompt foreign investors to adjust
their positions, leading to fluctuations in stock prices. The Sensex
points may experience periods of volatility as a result of these factors.
1. Market Volatility: Following the exit of foreign investors, the market may
experience heightened volatility as it adjusts to the reduced liquidity and
shifting investor sentiment. Sharp fluctuations in stock prices and the Sensex
points are common during this period as market participants reassess their
investment strategies.
2. Impact on Currency: Foreign investors' exit can also impact the currency
market, leading to depreciation of the domestic currency if significant
capital outflows occur. A weaker currency may have implications for
inflation, interest rates, and corporate profitability, further influencing the
stock market dynamics.
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3. Investor Confidence: The exit of foreign investors may dent investor
confidence, especially if it is perceived as a signal of underlying weaknesses
in the economy or financial markets. Restoring investor confidence becomes
crucial for stabilizing the market and preventing prolonged downturns in
stock prices.
350000
300000
250000
NET
200000
SELLs OF FIIs (In Crs)
BUYs OF FIIs (In Crs)
150000
100000
50000
0
2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
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CHAPTER - 4
Underlying Mechanisms of
Stock Market Behavior
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CHAPTER – 4.1
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SCRIP BSE PRICE(Rs) NSE PRICE(Rs)
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SCRIP BSE PRICE(Rs) NSE PRICE(Rs)
KOTAK MAHINDRA
1,742.15 0.69% 1,742.45 0.74%
BANK
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SCRIP BSE PRICE(Rs) NSE PRICE(Rs)
ZEE
203.15 5.01% 203.25 5.15%
ENTERTAINMENT
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