MIL-HDBK-338B

SECTION 5: RELIABILITY/MAINTAINABILITY/AVAILABILITY THEORY

A,
P(B|Ai) 0.5

P(B|A2) A. 0.1

FIGURE 5.5-3: TREE DIAGRAM EXAMPLE

P[B] = (0.5)(0.5) + (0.5)(0.1) = 0.3

PtAJPtBlAJ (0-5X0-5)
P[Ai|B] = = 0.8333
P[B] (0.3)

p[A2|B] . P[A,]P[B|A,] _ ffiaau . 0 167

L 1 J
P[B] (0- 3 )

5.5.1.2 Bayes'Example (Continuous Distribution)

As with the discrete example, the basic equation can be extended to cover continuous probability
distributions. For example, assume that based upon prior test results, engineering judgment, etc.
it has been observed that r failures occur in time t. The probability density function of t is a
gamma distribution given by

( T ) A ^ E ^
v 1 (5.65)
r(r)

where:
t is the amount of testing time (scale parameter)
r is the number of failures (shape parameter)

From Section 5.3.5, we know that (note changes in notation)

shape parameter r
jun v(mean failure rate) = , = ~ (5.66)
' scale parameter t

and
a. 2 _ _L
<?0 (5.67)

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