PDFC1726011124 Strategic Outlook 2024

1
Editor-in-chief: Henry Wilkinson

Managing editor: Matt Ince
T E
H
RESILIENCE
Design: Lindsay Lombard, Matteo Zanre, Syennie Valeria
Editors: Hannah Poppy, Joel Gulhane, Pierre-Louis Le Goff

Contributing analysts: Barbara Kelemen, Ben Hiorns, Byron Cabrol, Carl-Johan Carlstedt, David Dalton, Eddie
GAP
Bejarano, Flavien Baumgartner, Francis Lee-Saunders, Hannah Poppy, Henry Wilkinson, Hossam Abougabal,
Ilias Koutroulis, Jim Kerres, Joe McArdle, Joel Gulhane, John Sunerton, Jonah Kaplan, Kirsten Phelps, Lauren
O’Loughlin, Maria Harrison, Manish Gohil, Martin Quick, Matt Ince, Megan Campbell, Paolo Napolitano, Pierre-
Louis Le Goff, Sebastian Bruhn, Sofia Martinez Fernandez, Tamara Naidoo, Zoe Ciaccio.
Dragonfly would also like to thank the many industry colleagues, on-the-ground sources, contacts, external
analysts and partners who contributed to Strategic Outlook 2024.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2024

First published in November 2023 by Dragonfly Eye Ltd
SQB, Canary Wharf, London, E14 9SH, United Kingdom
© 2023 Dragonfly Eye Ltd

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Global Events Calendar images:

Getty Images: 1 (Sam Yeh / AFP), 2 (Scott Olson / Staff), 3 (Seppo Samuli / AFP), 4 (Ousmane Makaveli / AFP), 5
(wellsie82),6 (Anatolii Stepanov / AFP), 7 Unsplash: (Artur Kornakov), 8 (Mikhail Svetlov / AFP), 9 (Cavan Images /
Meridith Kohut), 10 (Dibyangshu Sarkar / AFP), 11 (Dondi Tawatao / Stringer), 12 (- / AFP), 13 (Alexander Nemenov /
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(Kerstin Joensson / AFP), 19 (Ludovic Marin /AFP), 20 (Scott Olson / Staff), 21 (Bertrand Guay / AFP), 22 (Trinidad
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(Miguel Schincariol / AFP), 27 (Thierry Monasse / Contributor), 28 (Pool / Pool), 29 Unsplash:(Raphael Nogueira), 30
(Fethi Belaid/AFP), 31 (Issouf Sanogo/AFP), 32 Unsplash: (manu schwendener), 33 Unsplash: (Dan Kiefer)
Strategic Outlook 2024

Contents
The Resilience Welcome Note 7 Global Events The Year Ahead 100
Gap Leader 8
Calendar
Top Five Climate Change | Beyond the Rubicon 14 Regional Europe 104
Global Trends Artificial Intelligence | A Revolution in Human Affairs 18
Regulatory Resilience | Following the AI Innovation Curve 22

Analysis Eurasia
West & Central Africa

112
120
Societal Resilience | Struggling to Keep Up 26 East & Southern Africa 128
Supply Chain Risks | A Transient State of Resilience 30 North Africa 136
Middle East 144
Scenarios Ukraine War Fallout 34 South Asia 152
Global Economy 40 Asia Pacific 160
Climate Security 46 North America & the Caribbean 168
Great Powers 52 Latin America 176
Geopolitical Fault Lines 58
US Politics 64 About Methodology 184
Middle Powers 70 About Strategic Outlook 2024 186
Emerging Technologies 76 About Dragonfly 188
Nuclear Weapons 82
Societal Pressure 86
Resilience Key Findings 95
Perceptions
Survey 2024
4 5
Welcome to
Strategic Outlook provides
a rigorous and insightful
assessment of the most
significant security challenges Welcome to Strategic Outlook 2024: The Resilience Gap, our tenth annual
forecast on geopolitics and global security risks and the first since Dragonfly
facing businesses in the year was acquired by FiscalNote in 2023.
ahead. We find it particularly
In Strategic Outlook 2024, we assess the trajectories of risks and look to the
useful for stress-testing our future, with over 500 forecasts, thematic analysis, scenarios, events to watch and
own internal assessments, and interactive visualisations. We also present our first Resilience Perceptions Survey
that gives insight into how global organisations view the challenges ahead.
in helping us to identify the key
The theme throughout this edition is questioning whether the risks we identify
emerging issues and trends are evolving faster than governments and global organisations are able to keep
that could have implications up with. And whether, in the wake of the polycrises of recent years, adequate
attention and resources are being given to building resilience against the risks
for our operations. that we anticipate await us over the horizon.
- Intelligence manager at an international

Forecasting even at its best is, as we always caution, a speculative and probabilistic
entertainment company
exercise. The futures we imagine in Strategic Outlook are neither facts nor
certainties, and we will undoubtedly fail to foresee certain developments. But
they are scenarios that, in our judgement, it would be prudent to explore and
prepare for if one is to maintain time and decision-making advantage, and
build resilience.
As ever, I must express my sincere thanks and appreciation for our outstanding
team at Dragonfly who I have the privilege to lead and work with. The production
of Strategic Outlook is an undertaking that exemplifies the spirit of collaboration,
intellectual challenge, rigour, creativity and the highest regard to serve our valued
The cover for Strategic Outlook 2024 was created using Midjourney, an AI
clients. These qualities define both Dragonfly and FiscalNote in our mission
image creator.
to empower organisations with critical insights and the tools to turn them
into action. ◆
Henry Wilkinson
Chief Intelligence Officer, Dragonfly
6 7
Leader Geopolitical competition, alongside extreme climatic events, will

almost certainly remain the major sources of risk and volatility in
2024. The risk dimensions of artificial intelligence are also very likely
The Resilience
to become tangibly more apparent. With limited fiscal capacity and
political unity left from the economic and geopolitical disruptions of
recent years, the impacts of such risks are likely to be amplified by a
growing resilience deficit worldwide.
Gap We assess that almost a third of countries worldwide have a worsening

security and stability outlook over the coming year, including China, France,
Germany, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia. Whereas only 11 countries are
likely to see an improvement, among them Ethiopia, Syria and Turkiye.
For the remaining majority of countries, the overall stability trajectory we
assess is broadly consistent, albeit for many this means a continuation of
volatility.
There are many reasons for this broadly negative outlook, but geopolitical
risks sit at the centre. In Strategic Outlook 2023: The Global Unravelling we
argued that the systems, institutions and orders that have underpinned
relative global stability and security for decades are unravelling and taking
new forms. Globalisation, trade agreements, political systems, ecosystems,
climate systems, supply chains, security alliances, systems of influence and
patronage, civil rights, the nuclear order and the multilateral global order –
are all in various states of flux and transformation.
None of these dynamics have changed. This means that the potential for risk
events to occur more often, be amplified and made more enduring in their
impacts, and with wider knock-on effects will persist in the coming years in
every region. This includes not only political crises and security events but
the effects of extreme weather on food supply and economic growth. All of
these threaten to sustain inflation and fiscal pressure, and keep states and
global enterprises alike on the backfoot and at risk of not building longer
term resilience.
8 9
Strategic Outlook 2024 | Leader
Strategic competition trumps all The AI revolution

While every region faces different challenges, China- watch. Middle-ranking powers are now pursuing their The mainstream arrival of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) adds
US relations and Russia’s war in Ukraine will almost interests and exercising power on the global stage in yet another new dimension of risk in geopolitics and global security. AI
certainly remain front and centre in geopolitical ways we have not quite seen before. Overridingly, their has now propelled us towards a new future far sooner than many could
risk considerations in 2024. What happens in China goals are self-interested, not collective: security and have imagined. The scope of opportunities that AI promises seems almost
and the US in 2024 in particular will have global growth through greater trade and investment. This is limitless, but managing the risks that accompany this revolutionary
ramifications. Even just the possibility of a return to important because the strategies of the US and China, technology will require a degree of positive sum cooperation that is lacking
a Trump presidency in the US presidential elections and indeed Europe and Russia, rest on trade relations in international relations at present.
raises important questions about how the US might with Global South powers that are themselves
engage with China and other powers, and what competing for ascendance and are challenging The pace of change in AI technology is so rapid that the risk can be conceived
strategic confidence other countries can have in US established norms. of as one of widening gaps. The gaps being those between the technology and
alliances and agreements, not least NATO and US our knowledge and understanding of it and its risks, and how we manage the
support for Ukraine. From energy security to diversified and secure supply risks that may arise before the technology proliferates beyond control. This
chains and access to critical mineral resources and lag in understanding and in finding common ground may render attempts
In the case of China, we forecast that its economic markets, China, the US and Europe all rely on Global to regulate AI quickly and holistically far less effective than they need to be.
downturn will probably become more sustained, South powers to achieve their goals. And it is likely to
leading to lower imports, less consumption and become a sellers’ market, where strategic agreements Such risks from AI span social, political, scientific, cyber, security,
fewer investments abroad, undermining its Belt and are defined less by reform and governance norms than geostrategic and economic domains, and may prove as prosaic and as
Road Initiative in various parts of the world. This by economic and material benefit. A subscription profound as the opportunities that AI will bring. While many of the risks may
would probably contribute to a sustained economic to a stable liberal rules-based order, which many in take time to manifest, anxieties of sweeping changes such as widespread
slowdown globally with attending impacts on jobs the Global South feel does not serve their interests, job losses may prove a more imminent risk issue in 2024. Arguably, though,
and employment. We also assess there is a risk that is not required. And with it, the prospects of mutual more urgent near-term risks arising from AI in politics relate to the integrity
inflation will persist - if not rise again - due to supply cooperation to substantively tackle common global of democratic institutions and the capabilities AI can give to malign actors
chain disruptions (particularly in the tech sector) risks such as environmental degradation remain weak. Image: Getty Images (Lionel BONAVENTURE / AFP) to inflict damage.
caused by US-China competition, political crises in
third countries and the increasingly frequent impact This will be the first year in which we are most likely to see AI starting to
of severe climatic events worldwide. play a major role in shaping political discourse and perceptions before,
during and after elections. In 2024, we will see elections determining the
All the while, the globally significant scenario of a
Taiwan Strait crisis will continue to loom. How such
Highly convincing governance of more than a third of the world’s population, in the US, Taiwan,
India, Finland and the European Parliament to name a few. Yet there are
a scenario might play out, be it a political takeover, deepfake technology urgent questions as to the extent to which AI exploitation may play a role in
naval blockade, war or something less kinetic, is
widely debated. This raises difficult questions about
is the most prolific their political and security outcomes.
the cost-benefit considerations of global planning and concern because of how Highly convincing deepfake technology is the most prolific concern because
mitigations for what many seem to regard as a high- of how effective this may prove in undermining public trust, particularly in
impact but low-probability risk. But in our estimation, effective this may prove a populist political climate. This is particularly given the extant trends of
a denouement of sorts to resolve Beijing’s strategic in undermining public conspiracy theories are mainstreaming and disinformation campaigns by
intent on Taiwan will become progressively more likely hostile states and political actors are spreading within states. AI could also
over the coming two to five years. trust, particularly in a give disruptive fringe actors outsized means to influence audiences and win
populist political climate. votes through AI-enabled data populism.
Strategic competition between the leading powers
predominates, but the emergence of the so-called
Image: Getty Images (Jeff Swensen / Stringer)
Global South is an important geopolitical shift to
10 11
Strategic Outlook 2024 | Leader
That AI technology could give malign actors

capabilities that would otherwise be beyond their
reach is perhaps the greatest long-term global security
concern. We are already seeing how quickly cyber
threat actors are exploiting AI to write harmful code,
engage in spear phishing at scale and attack networks.
Without adequate safeguards to prevent advanced AI
proliferating out of control, it would only be a matter
of time before malign non-state actors see similar
leaps in capabilities in the physical domain. In 2022, it
took a mere six hours for an AI tool to suggest 40,000
different potentially lethal molecules, some of which
were similar to the VX nerve agent.
The need to regulate this technology is as plain as it is

pressing, but the speed with which effective regulations
can be enacted is lagging behind the rapid evolution
of the technology. It is quite possible that AI laws and
regulations become outdated as soon as they come
into effect. And it seems unlikely that key regulations
Outlook trends
will be in place for some of these elections in 2024. The
most effective near-term mitigations may well prove Improving
to be benevolent AI technology solutions rather than Consistent
those of a purely regulatory nature. Worsening
The Resilience Gap

As we look to the future throughout Strategic Outlook, natural hazards and biodiversity loss, as well as cyber strategies when the options to avoid exposure to risks on unstable countries for materials essential to reach
the question amidst all these ongoing and emerging espionage and cybercrimes. The next most frequently are limited. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine net zero goals. The possibility of a crisis in the Taiwan
changes is whether governments, and indeed global selected risks were economic instability and market sparked an energy and inflation crisis and urgent Strait as perhaps the preeminent geopolitical risk in
businesses, can keep up and be prepared for the risks volatility stemming from political and social unrest. measures to reduce hydrocarbon dependencies on the coming years raises the question of whether de-
that will attend them. This is a pressing question about Russia, and in turn curb Putin’s coercive powers. But risking from Russia over Ukraine has simply made the
tying anticipation to action because the only constant Faced with such risks, many respondents felt that the race for renewables has increased dependencies West more exposed to Chinese coercion over Taiwan.
of our era is change. And the safest assumption now the way their organisations are structured and a lack on less stable countries in Africa for the critical raw
is that changes occur faster than ever thanks to of strategy are the biggest impediments for creating materials that clean energy technologies require, as The assessments in Strategic Outlook 2024 may help
technology and the interdependencies of risks. resilience. This speaks largely to how enterprises well as on China, which dominates the global supply narrow some gaps in thinking about future risks. But
manage risks, particularly geopolitical and global chains for their extraction and processing. closing the resilience gap and finding sustainable long-
In our Resilience Perceptions Survey, the majority security risks. But it also seems to suggest that many term strategies will require difficult decisions, because
of respondents said that war, environmental global organisations are struggling to keep up with the In this respect, reducing exposure to today’s risks there is no certainty that the worst cases will come to
destabilisation and cyber risks are expected to pose the pace and complexity of how, when and where new crises may increase vulnerabilities to the next conflict or pass or even be foreseen. Building resilience isn’t about
greatest threats to the resilience of organisations over occur and unfold, and impact their organisations. crisis, unless care is taken to anticipate scenarios and being right or certain about the future. It is about being
the next five years. This includes civil and interstate map dependencies. The coup in July in Niger, a major prepared for and geared towards managing uncertainty,
conflicts, risks stemming from climate change, There are also pitfalls in building long-term resilience supplier of uranium, exemplifies the risks of reliance and this process begins with forecasting. ◆
12 13
Top Five Global Trends
Climate Change
Beyond the More extreme climate conditions are almost certain to test global resilience
over the next five years, by causing costly damage to infrastructure and
disrupting critical supply chains. As the global climate continues to
Rubicon
change, countries will also face cascading consequences that go beyond
environmental risks and their immediate operational impacts. Increased
resource competition, migration pressures and geopolitical tensions resulting
from climate change are very likely to pose strategic risks to businesses by
threatening international security and stability.
Some of the more severe consequences of climate change are already

unfolding. Record-breaking land and ocean temperatures are being observed
at an increasing rate, leading to more frequent and deadly heatwaves, floods
and wildfires. Most experts believe that the critical temperature threshold of
1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels will probably be breached at least once
by 2027. And that multiple climate tipping points would occur as a result,
accelerating the current warming trend and causing abrupt and potentially
irreversible changes to the global climate system.
Disruption to the global economy, societies and ecosystems, brought about

by such shifts, is likely to be considerable. Currently, extreme weather puts
around $80 billion of global trade at risk each year by shutting down ports or
rendering them inoperable – a figure that will very probably increase. Climate
scientists are also warning that the global temperature rise will expose a third
of the global population to less favourable climate conditions by the end of
the century. Potential consequences, experts suggest, will include higher
mortality rates, more food insecurity and less productivity.
Image: Getty Images (Spyros BAKALIS / AFP)
14 15
Top Five Global Trends | Climate Change
Global readiness to improve climate resilience is limited

Readiness: A country’s ability to leverage investments and convert them to adaptation actions
Least Most
Image: Getty Images (FilippoBacci)
Key markets such as India, Nigeria and Indonesia will their emissions and who should bear the costs.
probably be worst affected, as they are among the most International cooperation on climate action is likely to
climate-vulnerable. But no country will be immune, break down as major emitters fail to compensate the
as climate-related security risks are likely to intensify most vulnerable for loss and damages – resulting in a
across all regions. Enhanced resource scarcity, more fragmented policy and regulatory landscape.
including of water and arable land, for example, is
likely to heighten competition and trigger conflicts. The pursuit of critical materials required for low-
In Southeast Asia, the likelihood of inter-communal carbon technologies is also very likely to grow over the
violence will increase due to dwindling Mekong River coming 12 months and beyond, exacerbating tensions
resources. While in Latin America, climate change- between states and aggravating security risks in source
driven deforestation will probably heighten disputes countries. The development of lithium resources in
over agricultural land. Kashmir, for example, will probably compound existing
security challenges there between the governments
Climate risks are very likely to present opportunities of India and Pakistan. As the race to dominate the
for extremists and organised criminal groups. They renewable energy sector accelerates, increased military
create conditions that are conducive to recruitment, posturing and geopolitical manoeuvring is likely in
radicalisation and exploitation. Anarchist groups areas – such as the Arctic, outer space and the deep sea
across Europe, for example, will probably continue – with major deposits.
exploiting popular concerns and anxiety about
environmental breakdown to reinforce their extremist Frustration with the widening gap between climate
ideologies. Likewise in South Asia, rising sea levels – change action and ambition is very likely to lead
which the UN says could displace up to 40m people by to a surge in grassroots movements, protests and
2030 – are likely to lead to more human trafficking and advocacy for more robust climate policies. While this
slavery. will probably in turn drive increased awareness and
urgency around the need to build climate resilience,
Global efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate risks it may also lead to civil unrest, violent clashes with
are also shaping geopolitics. Cross-border tensions are the authorities and wider societal and business
likely to grow over the coming year as governments disruptions, testing the resilience of societies and
struggle to reach consensus on how best to reduce global businesses alike. ◆

Sources: Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative; Climate Action Tracker.
16 17
Artificial Intelligence
A revolutionary Artificial Intelligence marks a technology revolution with profound long-
term implications for humanity that will increasingly become apparent
in 2024. Visions of the future in which AI permeates all aspects of social,
change
economic, scientific, political and military activity are far closer to realisation
than could have been imagined even in 2022. The democratisation of AI in
particular, with the emergence of ChatGPT and other large language learning
models (LLMs) in 2023, marks a step change in the role such technology will
play in our collective future.
Discussions and predictions about the many positive and negative impacts
of AI abound. Yet the pace of change in AI is so rapid, that our understanding
of its potential and the risks that may emerge means any forecasting is
liable to be overtaken. Attempts to regulate the technology, build resilience
and mitigate against malign exploitation or unintended consequences are
very likely to lag behind the technology. We foresee the next year as likely
to be defined, not as one of sudden profound transformation, but by the
disruption that will invariably come with these transformative processes.
AI is enabling innovations to occur across different sectors. In healthcare,

for example, AI is being used to enhance disease detection and drug
development, address administrative inefficiencies and improve patient
communication and training. AI-driven tools and applications promise to
deliver similar efficiencies in other areas of life. This includes transforming
the threat detection and early warning system capabilities of governments
and global organisations, increasing preparedness against natural disasters,
cyber attacks, disease outbreaks and other emergencies.
Image: Getty Images (Wang Zhao / AFP)
18 19
Top Five Global Trends | Artificial Intelligence

But these same technologies are also placing strains
on political and societal resilience within countries, AI is extending many states’ capacity for
compounding global security and geopolitical risks.
The propensity for political repression has increased digital repression
globally, as AI expands the capacity of states to surveil,
manipulate and exert control over their citizens and The digital repression index captures states’ capacity to deploy digital repression techniques. The index
businesses. We have observed that a number of states and propensity to use digital technologies to repress also takes into account the strength of countries’ ties
– including Egypt, India, Russia and Turkiye – have their citizens and control businesses. This is based on with China as a proxy for how much external support
followed a trajectory of being more repressive in this data from the World Bank and other globally-focused they may be receiving to supplement their domestic
way in recent years. think tanks on the extent to which civil liberties are capacity for digital repression.
upheld within countries, and states’ relative capacity
Income inequality risks being deepened as the jobs
of workers in sectors that are especially vulnerable 100
to automation – such as finance and insurance,
education, health and social work – are displaced or
lost. Job losses due to AI have already begun. Some 90
4,000 US-based jobs were cut because of AI in May
2023 alone. More look likely to follow; two-thirds of 80
jobs in the US and Europe are exposed to automation.
This raises the real near-term prospect of job losses
Risk of digital repression index score

and more workers having to move into lower-paying 70
jobs acting as a catalyst for political and social unrest.
60
Extremist, hate and fringe groups have already
incorporated AI-generated deepfakes and
misinformation campaigns into their propaganda 50
and attack planning. This is likely to herald a major Image: Getty Images (Sean Gallup / Staff)
change in non-state actors’ capabilities to further
40
their interests and make an impact. Content such as All of these risks now seem reasonably foreseeable in
the AI-generated deepfake photograph of an explosion the next few years. What is less clear is whether states
near the US Pentagon building in May 2023 – which and organisations will have adequate safeguards in 30
triggered a 0.26% fall in the US stock market – are place in this time frame. While governments in several
likely to become more common. countries are likely to continue their attempts to
position themselves as global leaders on AI – in part as 20
Malign actors who are already using automated a way to reap economic benefits – less material action
disinformation to try to influence political and appears to be being taken to minimise the occurrence
10
business outcomes around the world are also very and impact of such activity.
likely to exploit AI to increasingly facilitate a variety
of malicious activities. This includes undermining Urgent and effective efforts are therefore required to 0
the integrity of elections, influencing voter opinions create national and international global regulatory
ia
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pi
di
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or inciting violence. The resilience of democratic frameworks at a speed that looks unlikely to be feasible
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Br
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processes to withstand malign interference will in the prevailing political climate. If countermeasures
ud
S
El
Sa
increasingly be put to the test over the coming year and regulations fail to keep pace with AI-related
– particularly in Taiwan and the US which have advancement, then the gap between risks and
2016 composite score 2024 composite score Increase Decrease
presidential elections due in January and November resilience will certainly grow. ◆

2024, respectively.
Sources: Dragonfly, V-Dem Institute; World Bank; American Enterprise Institute.
20 21
Regulatory Resilience
Following the AI The actions that governments and international bodies take (or not) to regulate
generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) over the next five to ten years will be
key in determining the extent to which businesses and other organisations
Innovation Curve
can harness the power of these technologies or succumb to them and the risks
they create. In other words, regulation will determine resilience, but it will also
have the potential to intensify geopolitical fault lines. And the nature of such
regulation will also determine more prosaic questions that range from ‘how
safe are our people and our assets?’ to ‘which video surveillance provider can
we use?’.
AI technologies and their applications do not operate in an unregulated vacuum.

Existing labour laws, controls on the transfer of personal data and rules for
commercial competition all apply. New rules and controls are likely to come
into place through 2024. Canada, for example is, in the process of introducing
an Artificial Intelligence and Data Act (AIDA) that it says will prevent fraud.
The Netherlands’ powerful Dutch Data Protection Authority (DPA) began to
coordinate with other agencies on AI-related issues in early 2023.
Still, there are significant gaps that will require new rules. These include
shortfalls in understanding (including legislators’ knowledge of future
developments) and data, let alone guidance on ethical questions like, ‘who
should bear criminal responsibility for criminal acts promulgated by Gen AI?’.
It is likely to take at least a decade to begin to address these. This is because in
the UK, US and other common law countries the answers will be determined
in lengthy court battles. Legislation is unlikely to be much faster; the Canadian
AIDA has only passed two of five legislative hurdles since June 2022.
Image: Getty Images (Stefani Reynolds / AFP)
22 23
Top Five Global Trends | Regulatory Resilience
Trade-bloc-based rules are also likely to take years Compliance with draft EU AI Act
to enact and roll out. The EU is moving faster on the
AI Act than the decade it took to enact GDPR; the
GPT-4 Cohere Command Stable diffusion Claude PaLM 2
European Parliament aspires to have the legislation
approved by late 2023. But there is much uncertainty BLOOM LLaMA Jurassic-2 Luminous GPT-NeoX
around implementation. And given the global nature
of trade and labour markets, EU rules will only be part
of the puzzle. It will also be important for businesses
to monitor the nature of rules that other major trade
bodies like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) adopt. Data sources
Downstream Data
The current geopolitical context – specifically US- documentation governance
China competition – means that the rules these
bodies promulgate will create further competition.
That is also because it is in the interest of Western-
backed companies driving many of these technological Image: Getty Images (DAVID MCNEW / AFP) Member Copyrighted
advances to ensure that the regulations protect States data
their commercial advantage. That would in turn
pressure countries that fall on the periphery of
existing alliances and trade pacts to align with the Domestic politics too will determine the speed and
likes of the EU. This would also intensify a sense of strength of regulation. The Dutch DPA was able to
antagonism and isolation from China and its allies. muscle into AI issues because of a high-profile scandal
stemming from the discriminatory use of algorithms.
Ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games the French Machine- Compute
regulator is scrutinising AI-augmented CCTV. The generated content
extent to which new rules seek to protect jobs will no
doubt be influenced by the effectiveness of unions,
other influence and advocacy groups and leftist parties.
Probable consequences are likely to include internal
pressure to deploy teams handling new technologies
in places with more permissive regulation but that are Testing Energy
more exposed to other risks like weak governance and
instability.
New rules are no less likely to restrain criminal

organisations and other malign actors than old rules. Evaluations Capabilities
Nor will unscrupulous and disruptive competitors and limitations
(whether in business, development or politics) become Risks and mitigations
more likely to hold off as a result of regulation. But
the fundamentals for security teams to ensure the
resilience of their businesses in the face of all these
The four point scale used within this chart refers to level of compliance of each AI provider's model with different
changes are themselves unchanged; they must be
aspects of the draft EU AI Act, ranging from not compliant (0) to compliant (4).
able to rapidly identify, adapt to and robustly mitigate
emerging risks while keeping an eye on the horizon to
Source: Stanford Center for Research on Foundation Models
Image: Getty Images (FREDERICK FLORIN / AFP) anticipate those that are yet to emerge. ◆
24 25
Societal Resilience
Struggling to Rising inequality will hamper societal resilience in the face of global challenges
in the coming years. The Covid-19 pandemic and the uneven recovery from
Keep Up
it laid bare many divisions and vulnerabilities in societies, and tested the
resilience of what binds people together and to the state. In a disrupted
world facing myriad pressures, rapid changes and uncertainties, there are
legitimate questions about how resilient our societies are to the future and to
compounding challenges often rooted in poor governance.
The question of societal resilience is likely to become an ever more urgent

dimension of politics, security and stability. The risks we forecast throughout
this Strategic Outlook all carry immense and complex implications at the most
basic human and societal level, and often are made worse by governments
failing to find sustainable solutions. From the accelerating effects of climate
change and the rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI), to
geopolitical crises and economic uncertainty, a growing number of people face
change, displacement and inequalities.
Resilience is dependent on our ability to bounce back from adversity and move
forward. But this process is often utilitarian in nature and so while society
appears to move on, many are left behind. For example, the Covid-19 pandemic
is over for most people. Yet academic estimates suggest more than 200m
individuals globally will suffer from Long Covid symptoms that inhibit their
lives, including their ability to work productively, if at all.
Image: Getty Images (Thierry Monasse / Contributor)
26 27
Top Five Risk Driver | Societal Resilience
Impact of major shocks on average

household earnings
The graph shows the impact that recent major shocks Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on average household
to the global economy have had on average household earnings gives some insight into the resilience gap
earnings. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 between higher and lower income countries. Countries
very much had a negative impact on average household on the chart that have average household earnings
earnings globally. And while recovery in 2021 was under $30,000 are generally projected to have earnings
also more evenly distributed, the projected impact of decline or stagnate.
Image: Getty Images (Spencer Platt / Staff)
It is not just the public health impacts of Covid-19 by improving productivity and lifting the burden
that persist. The economic recovery has been uneven. of menial tasks off humans, particularly in more
Rising food and energy prices globally continue to developed economies. Despite the opportunities,
force more people to make tough decisions. Many anxiety over AI and what it means for employment is
Western governments attribute this to Russia’s war in growing. A Pew Research Center poll in August 2023,
Ukraine, but there are many other factors and there are for example, showed that 52% of Americans are ‘more
few prospects these will improve in 2024. Even more concerned than excited’ by the use of AI.
households will be faced with decisions on how to
spend – for example choosing between food or warmth. Such concerns are probably well founded. The World
Average household earnings (USD)

Economic Forum said in 2023 that technological
When it comes to climate change, political leaders advancements will lead to job losses and require six
are still prioritising the present at the cost of future in 10 workers to retrain before 2027. But only half of
resilience. This is often to the bemusement of the workers are seen to have access to adequate training
societies they govern. Short-term decisions will opportunities today. The rise in unemployment and
continue to exacerbate inequalities by worsening the absence of opportunity will almost certainly
food security, damaging public health, and pushing up contribute to already-widening inequality. The pace
poverty and displacement. Climate change will lead of change threatens to be faster than the rate at which
to internal and external migration from areas made our societies appear geared to adapt.
uninhabitable, either through rising water levels or
temperatures. But despite decades of warnings on Humans as a species are remarkably adaptable and
these issues, the UN in 2023 still pointed to lack of resourceful in the face of challenges. But successive
funding (developing countries will need more than profound disruptions to our habitat and way of life will
$300 billion per year by 2030) and political will as key invariably mean continuous and often destabilising
barriers. We are heading towards a foreseeable future changes. The question for forecasters is how effective
that we are inadequately prepared to weather. governments and global organisations will be in
building resilience to mitigate emerging risks, even
A more uncertain challenge is the rise of AI. The in the near term. In such a fractious geopolitical
increased availability of AI-powered tools and landscape this will require societies to choose their
applications has the ability to change society forever leaders wisely, as much as they are free to. ◆

Source: FrontierView
28 29
Supply Chain Risks

A Transient State
Global supply chain conditions have mostly rebounded from the disruption
of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Data compiled
by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that supply chain stressors
have largely fallen since their peak in December 2021. Product shortages
of Resilience
are easing, delivery times have shortened, port congestion has normalised
somewhat and global inventory levels are being restored. But the geopolitical,
cyber and environmental risks we forecast in this Strategic Outlook mean
that building resilience in complex supply chains will remain an ongoing
and urgent task.
Most organisations are still struggling with significant unpredictability

concerning the availability and cost of industrial inputs. Supply disruptions
of key resources was the top external risk to organisations identified by
Chief Risk Officers in a July 2023 World Economic Forum survey after
high inflation and interest rates. There is a good chance that this lack of
predictability will intensify over the next few years, as geopolitical and
security risks – from rising China-US trade tensions to accelerating climate
change – weigh more heavily on suppliers, producers and transporters.
Global supply chains will almost certainly bear the cost of geostrategic
competition, as the US and some of its allies press technology firms to
relocate production and assembly away from China. Such efforts will
probably enhance the resilience of some Western economies and global
companies. By reducing their dependence on China for critical goods and
technologies, for example, the US and some European states will limit their
vulnerability to economic coercion and geopolitical shocks. This includes
the fallout of a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait – a scenario which we
consider in greater detail within this Strategic Outlook.
Image: Getty Images (Nikada)
30 31
Top Five Global Trends | Supply Chain Risks
Critical minerals production remains highly

concentrated
Image: Getty Images (Kevin Frayer / Stringer)
But a policy of reducing economic reliance on Beijing A key risk going forward is how China responds to
and other geopolitical rivals (commonly now referred these efforts to displace it within global supply chains.
to simply as ‘de-risking’) is unlikely to mitigate the There seems little doubt that this will include making
impacts of the most pressing and complex issues life more difficult for global businesses that choose to
facing supply chains. Enduring challenges, including continue operating in China to pressure them and their
Russia’s effective blockade of Ukrainian ports and low governments to change course. Beijing will probably
water levels in busy waterways like the Panama Canal, also leverage its global dominance within the sectors
will continue to exert upward pressure on fuel and of extraction and processing of critical minerals.
food prices and sustain global market volatility.
Reliance on China for supplies of critical minerals will
De-risking activities will also probably place strains on almost certainly remain a strategic vulnerability for
global economic resilience and growth, by introducing many Western economies through 2024 and beyond
new supply chain vulnerabilities and costs. The IMF, for – given the concentration of resources and refining
example, has warned that the lasting financial impact operations there. Should US-China relations become
of trade fragmentation could potentially reach up to 7% more fraught, Beijing would probably introduce
of global GDP. This is partly because establishing new measures to curb exports – as it did in July 2023 for
manufacturing facilities is expensive and can lead to gallium and germanium. The consequences would be
higher production costs. substantial and far-reaching given the criticality of
these minerals for most renewable energy technologies
Alternative manufacturing destinations also have their and digital devices.
own vulnerabilities. Alternatives to China – including
India, Indonesia, Mexico and Vietnam – are among Balancing the benefits of supply chain de-risking
the most exposed to climate change impacts. Often with the challenges of diplomacy and managing the
they have inadequate infrastructure and governance, vulnerabilities that these activities create will be
and face security challenges that can undermine the crucial for achieving more resilient supply chains
smooth functioning of supply chains. Others – such over the coming years. For those tasked with building
as Bangladesh, which we identify here as having a resilience, having a clearer understanding of the
worsening stability outlook – are at risk of political security trends and risk conditions within a more
or economic crises that would create additional diverse set of contexts will be important. If strategic
challenges, including workforce readiness. risk forecasting does not sit at the centre of supply
chain strategy and planning, then resilience may prove
both costly and elusive. ◆
Source: International Energy Agency
32 33
Scenarios
Ukraine War Fallout Scenario One
Protracted conflict drives Risk types
The trajectory of the war in Ukraine will continue to determine the nature and timing of many other global global instability
security and stability risks over the next few years. Here are our top five scenarios on the consequences of the Interstate Conflict
conflict through 2024 and beyond. A protracted conflict in Ukraine consumes the diplomatic bandwidth
of the international community. The global economic, political and
security consequences include stronger ties between Russia and China,
ever-more strained relations between the US and Russia, high energy
prices and worsening food insecurity. Neither Russia nor Ukraine
secure a decisive military victory by the end of 2024.
Western militaries
intervene
So what?
The side effects of the war in Ukraine heighten global insecurity and
Political instability instability, undermining the ability of Western countries and Russia to
in Russia
respond adequately to other international crises.
Indicators
• Europe continues to import Russian gas
Peace deal eases • Ukraine conflict continues to drive food price volatility
global pressures • Bilateral trade between Russia and China expands
• Inflation rates remain above central bank targets
Western support • Neither Russia nor Ukraine appear capable of a decisive
for Ukraine becomes military victory
polarised
The trajectory of the war in Ukraine will continue to

determine the nature and timing of many other global
security and stability risks over the next few years.
Image: Getty Images (Aris Messinis / AFP)
34 35
Scenarios | Ukraine War Fallout
Scenario Two Scenario Three

Western support for Political instability So What?
Regime instability in Russia undermines the war
Ukraine becomes polarised in Russia effort in Ukraine, increasing the chances of a military
victory for Ukraine and the likelihood of Russia
A protracted war in Ukraine, with no clear route to Russia’s failings in Ukraine drive increasingly frequent becoming more dependent upon China.
peace, exposes and deepens divisions among Western challenges to Putin’s authority, as well as infighting
governments over how to respond to the war. More in government and military circles. The inability of
Western leaders call for Ukraine to cede territory and the military to deliver the leadership’s conflict goals, Indicators
commit to talks with Russia. Continued Western combined with the war’s impact on Russia’s economy • Ukraine retakes large portions of Russian-
uncertainty over the war’s endgame and Western and society, prompts greater opposition to it within occupied territories
relations with Russia are reflected in the level and pace the government. Infighting within the domestic • There is a sharp downturn in the Russian economy
of arms support to Ukraine. These fall further below security services undermines their ability to mitigate • Members of the Russian government publicly
the Ukrainian government’s stated requirements. threats to the regime before they materialise. question Russia’s strategy in Ukraine
• Arrests of members of the military or security
services on treason or sedition charges
So what?
Divisions between Western governments and
with Ukraine are likely to push up the chances of
a protracted conflict, and sustain the war’s global
ramifications, including inflation.
Risk types
Indicators Regime Instability
• Entrenched conflict in Ukraine with no clear
victory
Governance Risk
• Diplomatic talks between Ukraine and Russia
remain suspended
• Opinion polls suggest Western publics’ opposition
to supporting Ukraine is growing
• Notable political transition away from pro-Ukraine Image: Getty Images (Yan Dobronosov/Global Images Ukraine)
stance within Western countries, such as a Trump

victory in the 2024 US presidential election
Risk types
Interstate Conflict
36 Image: Getty Images (Gavriil Grigorov / SPUTNIK / AFP) 37

Scenarios | Ukraine War Fallout
Scenario Four
Peace deal eases global pressures
Following a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, relations between
Western countries and Russia gradually (albeit not completely) mend.
Sanctions on the Russian economy are partially lifted and economic
ties between Western countries and Russia begin to return to pre-war
levels. Disruption to supply chains in Europe caused by the conflict
eases and the global outlook for inflation and food markets steadily
improves.
Image: Getty Images (Wojtek Radwanski / AFP)

So what?
A peace deal improves the global economic and food security outlook
and shifts Western governments’ bandwidth onto other issues, such as
Scenario Five
climate change and relations with China. Western militaries So what?
An escalation of the conflict leads to heightened
intervene energy insecurity, disruption to critical infrastructure
Indicators due to increased offensive cyber activity, and a new
The war in Ukraine develops into a direct military
• Internal pressure within the Russian government to end the war nuclear arms race.
conflict between Russia and NATO. For example this
grows
would be in response to Russia using nuclear weapons
• Western governments’ signal willingness to lift sanctions on Russia
if a peace deal is reached
as a show of force, either in Ukraine or in the Black Indicators
Sea. There is a sharp drop in global stock markets, • Russia tests a nuclear weapon in its own territory
• China calls for Russia to end its war in Ukraine
global aviation routes are disrupted, and a wave of • The Russian military in Ukraine collapses,
• Ukraine signals willingness to cede territory to Russia
mass migration from Ukraine into eastern Europe threatening Russia’s control of Crimea
• Putin publicly accepts the invasion has failed and expresses
ensues. Relations between Western governments and • US intelligence warns of unusual movements
willingness to withdraw from Ukraine
Russia are completely severed as Western militaries of nuclear warheads inside Russia and within
intervene in the conflict and launch air and missile airfields ◆
strikes on Russian forces.
Risk types
Interstate Conflict
Image: Getty Images (Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP)
Risk types
Interstate Conflict
38 39
Scenarios
Global Economy Scenario One
China economic downturn Risk types
Global economic developments continue to determine the context for geopolitics and global security. Here are China’s economic downturn becomes more sustained leading to lower
our top five scenarios on how changes within the global economy will influence power structures, international imports, less consumption and fewer investments abroad. China’s Activism and Protests
relations and potential points of conflict or collaboration between nations over the coming year and beyond. economic importance to several countries around the world means that
these countries’ exports of goods, commodities and services drop. This Civil Unrest
in turn leads to a sustained economic slowdown globally.
Crisis Risk
Regime Instability
A prolonged
global recession
Rising commodity So what?
prices spur crises
Lower investment in infrastructure projects globally from China, along Supply Chain Risk
with lower economic growth, leads to unemployment in key industries
China economic worldwide, increasing the risk of civil unrest, popular discontent, labour
downturn activism and the rise of populist politics.
Sovereign Indicators
debt crises • China closes factories at a rapid rate
• Consumer spending decreases in China
• Fewer orders for commodities
• Fewer orders for energy from hydrocarbon sources
• Growing unemployment in China
Semiconductor
shocks
Global economic developments continue to

determine the context for geopolitics and global security.
Image: Getty Images (STR/AFP)
40 41
Scenarios | Global Economy

Sovereign debt crises Semiconductor shocks So what?
A supply chain crunch for major manufactured
Increased debt distress triggers financial and political The US implements increasingly severe restrictions electronics and automotive sectors leads to shortages
instability among several emerging and developing on China’s access to advanced semiconductors, in these sectors and a rapid global price rise of goods
economies. High interest rates push up the cost of debt triggering tit-for-tat sanctions by China on other parts and semiconductors, undermining the ability of
repayments, diverting resources away from current of the supply chain it dominates, including legacy governments and businesses to pay for imports.
spending and investment and reducing the capacity chips. Global shortages lead to increased smuggling of
of governments to offset the impact of unexpected export-controlled materials and a supply chain crunch
economic shocks. for the automotive and manufactured electronic Indicators
sectors. Military readiness and effectiveness is • US implements more severe export controls
affected worldwide. • Countries start to hoard semiconductors in
So what? anticipation of restrictions
Insufficient public funding for customary services • Sudden changes in the approval process or criteria
(welfare, medical or educational) undermines the for export licences for semiconductors
popular legitimacy of incumbent governments, while • Statements from US political leaders or US
foreign exchange shortages disrupt some businesses’ government officials suggesting a need to protect
import operations. technological superiority
Indicators
• Rising levels of public debt to GDP or debt service Risk types
to GDP
• Falling international reserves Interstate Conflict
• A rise in fees paid by governments to investment
banks to place bonds for them
Supply Chain Risk
• Spreads on credit default swaps – the cost of
insuring against default – start to rise
Image: Getty Images (Ishara S. KODIKARA / AFP)
Image: Getty Images (Sean Gallup / Staff)
Risk types
Activism and
Civil Conflict
Protests
Civil Unrest Crisis Risk
General Crime Governance

Risk
Regime Supply Chain
Instability Risk
42 43
Scenarios | Global Economy
Scenario Four
Rising commodity prices
spur crises
A sustained sharp rise in the cost of energy and food occurs, driven by
the impacts of the war in Ukraine, increased protectionism and climate
extremes. Disruptions in the Black Sea in particular severely disrupt the
ability of energy and agricultural producers to transport their products
to global markets. Global energy and food insecurity rises, including the
availability and affordability of fuel and food staples, especially within
developing economies. Image: Getty Images (TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP)
So what? Scenario Five

Increased levels of energy and food insecurity further weaken economic
and political institutions in some countries, raising the likelihood of
A prolonged global So what?
A global downturn exacerbates existing societal
domestic and interstate resource conflicts, and driving up outward recession pressures, raising the risk of hardship protests and
migration. civil unrest around the world.
The global economy is tipped into a recession by mid-
2024. Inflationary pressures and high interest rates
Indicators contribute towards a slowdown in growth across Indicators
• Russia fails to rejoin the Black Sea grain deal many of the world’s leading economies, especially in • The slowdown in headline inflation globally comes
• There is a step-up in attacks on shipping in the Black Sea the US and the EU. While putting pressure on jobs, to a halt or is reversed
• Sharp rise in global prices for wheat, rice, oil and fertilisers, including dampening consumer confidence and spending, this • Central banks of leading industrial economies
on forward markets also sparks a rise in business bankruptcies. (especially the US Federal Reserve and the
• Successful politicisation of domestic economic hardship issues by European Central Bank) raise interest rates
opposition groups in countries globally • Interest rates of key central banks stay at current
highs well into 2024
Image: Getty Images (Arif ALI / AFP)
• A clear and consistent deterioration of one or
more key indicators of macroeconomic health at
the global level, such as industrial production,
investment or unemployment rates ◆
Risk types
Activism and
Protests
General
Crime
Risk types
Activism and
Civil Governance Crisis Risk
Protests
Conflict Risk
Civil Interstate Civil Conflict General Crime

Unrest Conflict
Maritime Civil Unrest Supply Chain

Crisis Risk
Risk
44 45
Scenarios
Climate Security Scenario One
Climate extremes trigger a Risk types
The physical impacts of climate change are occurring sooner and with greater frequency and severity than previously global food crisis
estimated by most risk models. Here are our top five scenarios on the geopolitical and security implications of Civil Conflict
these accelerating impacts and global responses to them. Rising global temperatures, compounded by the impacts of El Nino,
make 2024 the hottest year on record. Multiple, concurrent and highly Civil Unrest
disruptive extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, wildfires,
droughts and floods – cause cascading impacts across several regions,
Climatic Risk
including within key food producers like Brazil, China and India.
Agricultural yields are impacted and food supplies contaminated,
negatively affecting availability and prompting broader disruption, Crisis Risk
Climate extremes trigger
a global food crisis such as higher prices, soaring inflation, protectionism and shortages of
food staples in import-reliant countries. Regime Instability
Increased support for
solar geoengineering
Climate diplomacy
reaches deadlock So what?
Food insecurity triggers worsening humanitarian conditions and
increases the risk of civil unrest, political instability and conflict in
affected areas, while compounding geopolitical competition over access
to limited resources.
Climate disinformation
delays climate action
Indicators
• Extreme weather warnings are issued for key food-producing
countries by national and international meteorological
organisations
• Sudden increases to the cost of food according to the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index
• Protectionist measures by a key food producer, such as export
controls or bans on food staples like corn, rice and wheat
The physical impacts of climate change are

occurring sooner and with greater frequency and
severity than previously estimated by most risk models.
Image: Getty Images (Prakash SINGH / AFP)
46 47
Scenarios | Climate Security

Competition for critical Climate diplomacy So what?
A more disjointed international climate change
minerals intensifies reaches deadlock response amplifies geopolitical risks, raising the
potential for climate activism and disorderly energy
Soaring demand for clean energy spurs increased Divisions between developed and developing transitions with implications for energy and food
competition over access to the mineral resources needed countries deepen after the UN’s Climate Change security, as well as economic, political and social
for low-carbon technologies. Tensions between states Conference in Dubai (COP28) falls short of delivering stability.
mount over how to govern industrial-scale deep-sea mining meaningful agreements on phasing out fossil fuels
for minerals used for battery storage, such as cobalt, and loss and damage. Confidence in the UN’s climate
copper and nickel – something that has not previously change process is eroded and international climate Indicators
been allowed under international law. The eastern Pacific diplomacy becomes more fragmented. Governments • Lack of substantive agreements reached at
emerges as a flashpoint for hostilities between fishers, in several countries – including China and the COP28 on phasing out fossil fuels and funding
deep-sea miners and environmentalist groups concerned US – form alternative alliances to address climate arrangements for loss and damage
about the potential damage to ecosystems. challenges in smaller groupings with ambitions more • Emergence of new regionally-focused climate
aligned to their own national interests. agreements, alliances and initiatives
So what? • Low levels of participation and cooperation in
Heightened competition for access to critical minerals international climate summits and conferences,
amplifies environmental and security risks in resource- such as COP29, in November 2024
rich areas, by fuelling territorial disputes and contributing • Increased political rhetoric by world leaders on
towards conflict financing, graft and criminality. the need to consider alternative timelines for
delivering Net Zero policies
Image: Getty Images (WIKUS DE WET / AFP)
Indicators
• Formation of new critical mineral alliances or Risk types
partnerships aimed at securing access
• Investments in mining operations for critical Activism and Protests
minerals in geopolitically sensitive locations
• Greater reference to critical minerals in national
Civil Unrest
security strategies and political rhetoric
• Increased resource nationalism, including export
restrictions on critical minerals or changes to Governance Risk
contract terms for foreign companies
• Increase in the number of mining applications to the
International Seabed Authority
Risk types
Governance Maritime Organised Regulatory Supply Chain
Risk Risk Crime Aspects Risk
48 Image: Getty Images (John MACDOUGALL / AFP) 49

Scenarios | Climate Security
Scenario Four
Climate disinformation delays
climate action
Malign actors with an interest in delaying action on climate change help
to bring about major climate policy reversals within several advanced
and emerging economies. Aided by advancements in AI, such actors
increasingly generate and spread ever more convincing false or misleading
information about climate change and its impacts to justify inaction
or inadequate responses. The proliferation of climate disinformation
focuses attention on the negative social and economic consequences of Image: Getty Images (OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP)
climate policies, and raises doubt about the feasibility of decarbonisation.
Scenario Five
So what? Increased support for So what?
The increased prominence of climate delay discourses creates a more Unilateral deployment of large-scale solar
polarised geopolitical environment and raises the risk that efforts to solar geoengineering geoengineering increases the risk of interstate conflict,
build climate resilience will prove insufficient. especially if one community or state perceives its
Faced with the increased frequency and severity
interests to have been negatively affected.
of climate extremes, some states – such as China
Indicators and India – explore more desperate measures to
• Political leaders express increased climate change scepticism, denial counter the effects of global temperature rise. This Indicators
or other perspectives that are at odds with scientific consensus includes deploying solar radiation management
• Reduced cooperation on climate change mitigation
• A significant shift in public opinion on the reality and seriousness of technologies (also known as solar geoengineering),
efforts, particularly if accompanied by rhetoric
climate change which is previously untested at scale and lacking
around geoengineering as a solution
• Sudden reversals or delays in the implementation of climate policies a formal framework to govern its use. Unintended
• Statements from politicians that endorse or show
• Withdrawal of funding for or reduced investment in renewable energy side effects occur, including less predictable and
interest in solar geoengineering
and other climate and nature-positive initiatives more extreme changes in regional precipitation
• Increased funding being allocated towards
• Climate disinformation features more prominently within patterns, undermining food and water security across
research and development of solar geoengineering
mainstream media neighbouring countries.
technologies
• Notable advancements in a state’s technological
capabilities for solar geoengineering ◆
Image: Getty Images (Anthony Devlin / Contributor)

Risk types
Climatic Interstate
Risk conflict
Risk types Governance Regulatory
Risk Aspects
Hostile Cyber Activity
50 51
Scenarios
Great Powers Scenario One
Competition warms up in Risk types
Competition among great powers is shaping the geopolitical context, creating increasing strategic uncertainty the Arctic
and amplifying the potential for conflict and wider instability risks. Here are our top five scenarios on how great Climatic Risk
power relations evolve over the next few years across various domains. Deepening China-Russia cooperation in the Arctic, including on energy
issues, intelligence sharing and Arctic shipping, leads to intensified
Interstate Conflict
competition with the US over access to natural resources, shipping
routes and fisheries. Rising tensions increase the likelihood of accidents
Maritime Risk
and oil spills surrounding resource extraction. These in turn paralyse
China-US cooperation in other areas, such as on climate issues.
China bans export of

critical minerals
So what?
Competition over Arctic resources tests the resilience of international
institutions, increasing the potential for militarisation and obstructing
Space
militarisation
international scientific cooperation.
Competition warms
Indicators
up in the Arctic • China and Russia expand infrastructure development in the area
• Further military buildup in the Arctic, including new radar bases
and expansion of runways as well as military exercises in the area
• Short-lived standoffs between the US Coast Guard, Russian and
Chinese vessels
• High-profile accidents around extraction sites or infrastructure
Russia becomes a Military escalation in
client state to China the South China Sea developments such as oil spills and vessel collisions
Competition among great powers is shaping

the geopolitical context, creating increasing strategic
uncertainty and amplifying the potential for conflict
and wider instability risks.
Image: Getty Images (Maxime POPOV / AFP)
52 53
Scenarios | Great Powers

Military escalation in the China bans export of So what?
A ban on exporting critical minerals affects global
South China Sea critical minerals supply chains and military readiness within Western
countries.
In an effort to expand its control of the South China Following new restrictions on Chinese industries
Sea, China declares an Air Defense Identification imposed by the US, the Chinese government bans
Zone (ADIZ) in the area and begins to enforce it. This the export of critical minerals – such as cobalt, Indicators
includes harassing commercial and military aircraft lithium and rare earth elements – to Western nations, • Tit-for-tat China-US restrictions on respective
entering the area through radio communication. It including the US. The move disrupts global supply investments and trade relations
also intercepts aircraft that enter the established chains, particularly in the high-tech, renewable • Beijing increases investment in critical minerals
ADIZ without submitting flight plans. The situation energy and defence industries. Global shortages of and downstream industries
culminates in a military confrontation between goods ensue, undermining economic performance in • China begins stockpiling critical minerals, such as
Chinese and US military aircraft. several countries. rare earths and lithium
So what?
The unilateral move by China disrupts commercial Risk types
aviation in the area, increasing interstate conflict
risks, including with the US, the Philippines and Supply Chain Risk
Vietnam.
Indicators
• China expands airfields in the South China Sea
• China deploys more aircraft to the area
• More frequent Chinese military exercises
• More frequent reports of Chinese air traffic
controllers trying to restrict free overflight
• Limited and short-lived skirmishes between
military patrols of China, the US and Southeast Image: Getty Images (Ezra Acayan / Stringer)
Asian nations
• China increasing its patrols to try to enforce its
‘nine-dash line’ in the area
Risk types
Aviation Risk
Interstate Conflict
Maritime Risk
54 Image: Getty Images (Ludovic MARIN / AFP) 55

Scenarios | Great Powers
Scenario Four
Space militarisation
China and Russia scale up cooperation between their respective
space programs to develop military space technology. This prompts
competition with the US to intensify within this domain. Debris
originating from Chinese and Russian tests of direct ascent
destructive anti-satellite weapons hits a US satellite, leading to
major communication and navigation disruptions and a prolonged
diplomatic crisis.
So what?
Competition in space generates tensions and disrupts critical Image: Getty Images (VLADIMIR ASTAPKOVICH / Contributor)
infrastructure and capabilities that depend on satellite technology,
such as weather forecasting, global positioning systems and
communication networks.
Scenario Five
Russia becomes a client So what?
Indicators China’s position as a great power is strengthened
• China and Russia announce joint space missions and space state to China at Russia’s expense, enhancing Beijing’s ability to
technology exchange challenge the US and triggering knock-on impacts,
As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, it becomes including heightening civil unrest risks in Central
• Increase in the frequency of Chinese satellite deployment and
overly dependent on Beijing for trade, munitions, Asia.
interplanetary missions
loans and broader financial support. In exchange,
• Russia and China increase their budget allocation for space
China is allowed to buy stakes in Russian state-
exploration
• China begins to emphasise the space frontier in its strategic
owned enterprises at discounted prices, including in Indicators
Image: Getty Images (CNS / AFP) the strategically important oil, gas and metals sectors. • Rise in Russia’s exports of raw materials to China
communication
Russia’s state sovereignty is undermined and Moscow and continued rise in China’s exports to Russia
• China withdraws from the Outer Space Treaty
is pulled decisively into China’s international sphere • Russia relaxes visa regime for Chinese nationals
of influence. • China buys major stakes in Russian state-owned
corporations
Risk types • Announcements of major China-sponsored
infrastructure projects in Russia
Aviation Risk • Unilateral reduction in tariffs ◆
Crisis Risk
Risk types
Infrastructure Risk
Civil Unrest
Maritime Risk
Interstate Conflict
Supply Chain Risk
56 57
Scenarios
Geopolitical Fault Lines Scenario One
Short-term crisis on the Risk types
The risk of interstate conflict remains ever present across several regions, with tensions running high between Korean Peninsula
states that are party to unresolved disputes. Here are our top five scenarios on the trajectory for long-standing Aviation Risk
geostrategic flashpoints over the next few years. Amid diplomatic deadlock, North Korea takes major escalatory military
action against South Korea, such as shelling a South Korean island or Hostile Cyber Activity
instigating a short-lived naval battle along the maritime demarcation.
Heightened military tensions last for a few weeks, including South
Interstate Conflict
Korea’s army being on alert for a potential attack by the North. This
triggers widespread flight cancellations and emergency procedures
across the peninsula. Maritime Risk
Regime Instability
So what?
Short-term crisis on A major escalation by North Korea triggers a series of actions hindering
A crisis in the Taiwan Strait Terrorism Risk
the Korean Peninsula both travel and operations in and around the Korean Peninsula.
Military escalation
between Egypt Indicators
and Ethiopia • South Korea publicly considers deploying tactical nuclear
weapons on its soil
Border skirmishes • North Korea seizes a South Korean ship
between India • Exchanges of fire along the demilitarised zone
and China
• Provocative intercontinental ballistic missile test launches by
the North
Heightened instability in
Indian-administered Kashmir
The risk of interstate conflict remains ever present

across several regions, with tensions running high
between states that are party to unresolved disputes.
Image: Getty Images (ANTHONY WALLACE / AFP)
58 59
Scenarios | Geopolitical Fault Lines

Border skirmishes A crisis in the So what?
A military and political standoff in the Taiwan Strait
between India and China Taiwan Strait disrupts global supply chains and increases the risk of
military conflict between China and the US.
Military tensions between India and China intensify, China takes assertive action against the island to
leading to violent border confrontations in Ladakh, demonstrate its intent and capability to prevent
Sikkim, or Arunachal Pradesh. Chinese state- Taiwan’s full sovereignty. This would be in response Indicators
sponsored groups conduct hostile cyber operations to a perceived major provocation by Taiwan or the • Increased Chinese naval presence in the Taiwan
against electric power infrastructure in northern US, such as a visit by an incumbent US president. Strait
India. India implements punitive economic measures Major and protracted disruptions follow, including • Increased probing by UAVs of outlying islands
against China, increasing the likelihood of tit-for-tat to shipping in the area, as well as closure of airspace • Reduction or turning off of shared utilities, like
restrictions by Beijing and resulting in disruption to impacting aviation and triggering evacuation plans by electricity and water, between mainland China
supply chains and weakened economies. some foreign governments and businesses operating and Kinmen and Matsu
in Taiwan. • Stockpiling of ammunition, shells and missiles in
Fujian province
So what? • Civilian movement restrictions in Xiamen
Worsening military tensions and cyber operations • Airspace closures at airports surrounding Fujian
between China and India cause disruption to critical province
infrastructure.
Indicators Risk types

• China or India boost military deployments at the Aviation Maritime
border Risk Risk
• Satellite images suggest expanding infrastructure
Cyber Threat Supply Chain
construction by China or India in the area
Exposure Risk
• Heightened frequency of military patrols near the
Line of Actual Control (LAC) by China or India Interstate
• China pursues ‘grey zone’ tactics, such as Conflict
incursions across the LAC and hostile cyber Image: Getty Images (Yawar Nazir / Contributor)
operations to mount pressure on India
Risk types
Civil Interstate
Unrest Conflict
Hostile Cyber Supply

Activity Chain Risk
60 Image: Getty Images (GREG BAKER / AFP) 61

Scenarios | Geopolitical Fault Lines
Scenario Four
Heightened instability in
Indian-administered Kashmir
Amid rising bilateral tensions, a Pakistan-based terrorist group
mounts a major attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, causing a
brief escalation along the Line of Control (LoC) with little warning. A
diplomatic crisis ensues, lasting for several days. Tit-for-tat artillery
exchanges and air strikes occur in the area, including across the
international border, prompting prolonged airspace closures.
So what?
An attack in Indian-administered Kashmir triggers a military Image: Getty Images (Amanuel SILESHI / AFP)
escalation, heightening the threat from regional terrorist groups and
causing knock-on disruptions to supply chains and aviation.
Scenario Five
Military escalation So what?
Indicators Disputes over the GERD lead to a heightened risk of
• Increase in Indian or Pakistani troop deployments in the area between Egypt interstate conflict as well as hostile cyber operations
•
•
More frequent violations of ceasefire alongside the LoC
India deploys air unit into Kashmir
and Ethiopia against entities based in Ethiopia.
Amid widespread droughts, Egypt launches air strikes Indicators

against Ethiopia after the latter presses ahead with
• Food inflation-driven protests become frequent
another filling of the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian
and large in Egypt
Renaissance Dam (GERD). This leads to a short-
• Egypt escalates its rhetoric against Ethiopia,
lived crisis between the two sides, including cyber
particularly in regards to the GERD
operations by Egypt-based hackers targeting dam-
• Breakdown in bilateral talks between Egypt and
related critical infrastructure and commercial and
Ethiopia
financial entities in Ethiopia.
• Reports that Egypt is arming or supporting rebels
in Ethiopia to attack GERD infrastructure ◆
Image: Getty Images (TAUSEEF MUSTAFA / AFP) Risk types

Hostile Cyber Interstate
Activity Conflict
Risk types
Aviation Civil Cyber Interstate Supply Terrorism
Risk Unrest Risk Conflict Chain Risk Risk
62 63
Scenarios
US Politics Scenario One
President Biden wins re-election Risk types
The result of the 2024 US presidential election will be immensely consequential for the future of global stability President Biden narrowly wins the presidential election against
and strategic competition, shaping key policies and influencing international relationships that can tip the scales Donald Trump. Upon confirmation of his victory, Biden reiterates Activism and Protests
of power. Here are our top five scenarios on the strategic implications of different election outcomes. US commitment to NATO, military support for Ukraine, curbing
China’s geopolitical ambitions and intensifying US efforts to address Civil Unrest
climate change. Some of Biden’s opponents claim that the election
was rigged in his favour, but legal efforts to challenge the result do Climatic Risk
not advance.
Governance Risk
Trump election leads to
major foreign policy reversals So what?
Russia is unable to gain an advantage in the Ukraine war, but there are Interstate Conflict
Trump victory prompts isolated protests and acts of violence against state-linked buildings in
constitutional crisis major US cities
President Biden Terrorism Risk
wins re-election
Indicators
• Polls give Biden a consistent lead in the presidential race
• Some prominent Republican figures distance themselves from
Trump’s campaign
Alternative Republican
wins the presidency Trump barred from • Supporters of both candidates claim the others’ party is trying to
seeking presidency subvert the electoral system against them
• Claims about electoral fraud gain significant traction on online
extremist channels
The result of the 2024 US presidential election will be

immensely consequential for the future of global stability
and strategic competition.
Image: Getty Images (JULIA NIKHINSON / AFP)
64 65
Scenarios | US Politics

Trump victory prompts Trump election leads to So what?
The announcement leads to a severe weakening of
constitutional crisis major foreign policy several international organisations, encouraging
Donald Trump narrowly wins the presidential reversals Russia and China to step up their disruption and
influence campaigns in several regions, particularly
election, despite having been found guilty of crimes Africa, and allowing Russia to gain the upper hand in
linked to efforts to undermine the 2020 poll. Trump Despite his legal travails, Donald Trump secures a
its invasion of Ukraine.
immediately announces his intention to pardon second presidential term and is inaugurated in January
himself and most people convicted of participating 2025. Upon taking office, he announces a major shift
in the 2021 attack on the US Capitol. Democrats in several major US foreign policy positions, such as:
Indicators
lodge legal challenges to Trump’s ability to assume ending military support for Ukraine, withdrawing the
• Polls give Trump a lead over President Biden in the
the presidency, leading to Congress postponing its US from NATO and stopping nuclear talks with Iran.
presidential race
certifying of the election result. Several senior public officials resign in protest against
• Trump intensifies his criticism of NATO and
President Trump’s plans.
President Zelensky during the presidential
campaign
So what? • European, NATO and Ukrainian leaders criticise
Uncertainty around the result of the election leads to Trump ahead of the election
major financial turmoil, large and occasionally violent
protests for and against Trump’s victory, and multiple
acts of extremist violence in major cities. Risk types
Governance Risk
Indicators
• Trump is convicted of at least one crime relating to Hostile Cyber Activity
his actions during his first presidential term
• Pre-election polls suggest that the race between
Interstate Conflict
Trump and President Biden is neck-and-neck
• Trump opponents signal their intent to legally
challenge his ability to assume the presidency
Image: Getty Images (Scott Olson / Staff)
Risk types
Activism and Protests
Civil Unrest
Crisis Risk
Governance Risk
66 Image: Getty Images (SAUL LOEB / AFP) 67

Scenarios | US Politics
Scenario Four
Trump barred from
seeking presidency
Trump is found guilty of a federal crime relating to efforts to overturn
the result of the 2020 presidential election. This leads legal scholars
to argue that he should be disqualified from seeking public office per
the 14th Amendment. A state-level Republican party leaves Trump off
the presidential primary ballot, or a state-level attorney general lodges a
legal case to keep him off the ballot. Following various legal appeals, the
Supreme Court takes up the case and rules to disqualify Trump from
the presidential race.
Image: Getty Images (Scott Olson / Staff)
So what?
The ruling leads to widespread questions among Republican officials Scenario Five
about the integrity of the election, but forces the party to seek an
alternative candidate and leader.
Alternative Republican So what?
A broad continuation of current US foreign policy, but
wins the presidency efforts to restrict gender and sexual rights spur on acts
Indicators With former president Trump off the ballot, another
of anti-LGBTQ+ harassment and violence, as well as
protests resisting these efforts.
• Trump is convicted of at least one crime related to efforts to overturn
Republican candidate narrowly beats Biden in
the 2020 presidential election result
the presidential election. In a victory speech, the
• Legal arguments that Trump’s actions in 2020 amount to his
candidate pledges their commitment to supporting Indicators
engaging in or supporting of an insurrection gain widespread
Ukraine against Russia’s invasion and intensifying • Trump is barred from contesting the election
traction and publicity
efforts to counter China’s geopolitical ambitions. They • President Biden is embroiled in a scandal, denting
• Several state-level attorney generals express their intention to bar
also signal their intent to drastically reduce federal his public support
Trump from the election ballot
government spending and protect ‘traditional family • The rate of inflation steadily rises again
values’ as part of a war against ‘woke ideology’. • The Republican party coalesces around a single
candidate ◆
Image: Getty Images (Seth WENIG / POOL / AFP)
Risk types
Risk types
Civil Unrest
Civil Unrest
Gender Discrimination
Governance Risk
LGBTQ+ Discrimination
68 69
Scenarios
Middle Powers Scenario One
Balancing out the US and China Risk types
Several middle powers are becoming more assertive geopolitical actors within a more contested international Middle powers become more independent and assertive. Some – notably
order. This is shaping economic, political and security dynamics within their immediate regions and further Saudi Arabia – attempt to leverage their relations with China and the Civil Conflict
afield. Here are our top five scenarios on the role that members of this influential group of key states will play in US to extract more concessions from them. Others – like Brazil and
determining the future risk landscape over the next few years. South Africa – compete with each other to gain better access to them. Cyber Risk
Disruptions to movements of goods and people follow, in addition to
heightened risks of limited regional conflicts. Civil Unrest
Turkiye becomes Balancing out the So what? Interstate Conflict
a global actor US and China As the global system transitions towards multipolarism, centres of
power compete with each other.
Non-aligned
movement revamp Indicators
• Saudi Arabia threatens to start using Chinese currency for oil
transactions
• Turkiye further postpones accession of Sweden to NATO
• South Korea and Japan further strengthen military cooperation
US and China compete
to court middle powers
Gulf states’
competition deepens
Several middle powers are becoming more

assertive geopolitical actors within a more contested
international order.
Image: Getty Images (Chris McGrath / Staff)
70 71
Scenarios | Middle Powers

Gulf states’ competition US and China compete to So what?
The US and China consolidate their influence and
deepens court middle powers power, creating new interstate and civil conflict risks.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia establish their own China and the US increase their efforts to bring most
competing visions for global and regional issues. middle powers into their spheres of influence, through Indicators
Economic policy becomes the main terrain of a combination of political, economic and security • China expands security ties with key middle
competition, particularly over new laws regulating incentives, and coercive measures. African and Asian powers, such as Nigeria, South Africa, Vietnam and
access to government contracts and attracting middle powers – including India, Nigeria, and South Indonesia
international capital and talent. Foreign policy Africa – become places of competition. This is due to • The US agrees to support Saudi Arabia’s nuclear
divergences between the two countries materialise great powers attempting to lay the foundations for programme
in several theatres, such as in OPEC affairs, Sudan, long-term strategic advantage. New regional conflicts • The US makes trade and security agreements
Djibouti, Syria, Libya and Yemen, albeit without emerge. conditional on countries in Africa relinquishing
leading to open military confrontation. the use or purchase of Chinese tech
• The US agrees to provide Turkiye with F-16s in
exchange for accession of Sweden to NATO
So what? • Brazil participates in the Belt and Road Initiative
Instability risks persist in the Middle East and Horn
of Africa, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE back different
parties in conflicts.
Risk types
Indicators Civil Unrest

• UAE blocks resolutions to Sudan conflict
• Saudi Arabia imposes tariffs and levies on goods Interstate Conflict
and services from the UAE
• UAE-backed groups in Yemen announce secession Terrorism Risk
plans, breaking away from the Saudi-backed
Presidential Council
• The UAE signals its intent to leave OPEC Image: Getty Images (-/AFP)
• Saudi Arabia approves new laws attracting capital
• Saudi Arabia and the UAE advance AI capabilities
• Saudi Arabia- and UAE-backed forces in Yemen
engage in prolonged armed conflict
Risk types
Civil Conflict
Interstate Conflict
72 Image: Getty Images (Ken Ishii,-Pool) 73

Scenarios | Middle Powers
Scenario Four
Turkiye becomes a global actor
Turkiye takes a more assertive stance in regional and international
affairs. It distances itself from both the West and the East while
simultaneously reaching out to them. It intervenes diplomatically in
regional disputes to make its role and influence more indispensable –
notably in the case of Ukraine, Gulf countries, Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan,
Libya, Israel and Palestine.
So what?
Relations between the East and West are affected by Turkiye’s Image: Getty Images (Andy Wong - Pool)
emergence as a global actor, increasing the risk of local conflicts and
security tensions.
Scenario Five
Indicators Non-aligned movement So what?
The non-aligned movement challenges the international
• Turkiye closes the Bosphorus strait to navigation over security revamp order, but it acts as a stabilising factor against probable
concerns military escalation led by either the US or China.
• Turkiye steps away from NATO military command Middle powers across the world join efforts to become
• Turkiye joins the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation an alternative centre of power to US-China dualism.
• Turkiye intervenes militarily in the Eastern Mediterranean, They hold a high-level summit to announce the Indicators
prompting a dispute with Greece and a NATO crisis establishment of an international organisation – with
• Middle powers signal their intention to launch a
their own charter, institutions and procedures. The
new non-aligned organisation
organisation includes a small number of countries
• Middle powers refuse to provide the US and China
compared to the existing non-aligned movement.
with military bases and support for their military
They pose a challenge to both the US and China by
operations worldwide
implementing policies aimed at increasing their own
• Middle powers take a neutral stance in growing US-
influence, namely through oil prices and availability
China competition ◆
of key food staples.
Risk types
Image: Getty Images (Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Civil Conflict
Civil Unrest
Risk types Interstate Conflict
Civil Conflict Civil Unrest Interstate Conflict Terrorism Risk
74 75
Scenarios
Emerging Technology Scenario One
Intensified race for AI dominance Risk types
Rapid advancements in emerging technology fields are reshaping the global security context, augmenting the Rivalries between states – including China and the US – for dominance
potential for new and potentially disruptive threats over the next few years. Here are our top five scenarios on how in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and innovation intensify. Civil Unrest
developments in emerging technology fields such as AI, biotechnology and quantum computing are likely to fuel Countries vie to set international standards, impose regulations
greater competition between states and amplify instability risks through 2024 and beyond. that disadvantage others and strengthen the competitive advantage Cyber Risk
of domestic AI firms. Research, development and deployment of AI
for unethical uses – such as surveillance, oppression or automated Cyber Threat Exposure
weaponry – occur without proper oversight. And hostile states try to
disrupt rivals’ AI programmes through cyber sabotage.
Interstate Conflict
A genetically-engineered
pandemic
So what?
Relations between great powers become more tense and fragmented
Regulation of quantum
computing-related as competition and lack of cooperation on AI research and regulations
technologies further erode trust between countries, making diplomatic resolutions
harder to achieve.
Indicators
Targeting of satellite • Statements or policies by governments that express a pro-
and space assets innovation approach to AI adoption and regulation
• US politicians publicly express concerns over China’s use of
advanced technologies, including AI and supercomputers, for
military purposes
• Countries announce groundbreaking AI technologies that are
extremely efficient and effective, such as for cancer screening
AI-enabled extremism • Increased funding and investment in AI research and development
and disinformation
by the US and China
• States outline strategic plans aiming to lead global AI development,
indicating an increased competition for AI dominance
Rapid advancements in emerging technology fields

are reshaping the global security context.
Image: Getty Images (OLIVIER MORIN / AFP)
76 77
Scenarios | Emerging Technology

Regulation of quantum AI-enabled extremism So what?
The proliferation of AI-generated disinformation
computing-related and disinformation by extremist groups undermines public trust in
technologies Many threat actors, including on the far-left and

institutions, media and governments, making
populations more susceptible to extremist ideologies.
far-right, test and use various AI tools to further
China and the US seek to dominate the quantum their respective causes. Extremist and hate actors in
computing field. They do so by demonstrating the particular use chatbots to optimise attack planning Indicators
successful application of such technologies to solve and generate more convincing and plausible • A surge in incidents and controversies driven by
real-world problems. To this end, the US government propaganda and disinformation. Governments and AI-generated content and automation, such as
steps up its efforts to stymie Beijing’s development social media companies attempt to limit the access of deepfakes and other AI-generated media
of quantum supercomputers, with stricter export such groups to AI tools and applications, but struggle • Even reputable media outlets mistakenly circulate
controls on related components and tighter regulation to identify AI-generated content, propagating scandals AI-generated and misleading content
for national security reasons. China remains adaptive, and conspiracies. • Social media companies announce staff lay-offs
however, and finds loopholes to achieve its strategic
and struggle to identify, and so take down, AI-
objectives.
generated content on platforms
• National authorities uncover an extremist plot
So what? and disclose that actors had used AI technologies
to plan attacks
Moves to achieve quantum computing supremacy
present new cybersecurity threats, while export
controls create wider supply chain disruptions.
Risk types
Indicators Civil unrest Terrorism Threat
• The US and other partners further restrict China’s
access to high-end chip production equipment
Cyber Threat
• US leaders openly call out China and Chinese Terrorism Risk
Exposure
companies for developing supercomputer
technology for military programmes and use Image: Getty Images (SAUL LOEB / AFP)
• A surge in private and public funding in quantum
research and development, and an expansion of
quantum education
Risk types
Cyber Threat Exposure
Infrastructure Risk
78 Image: Getty Images (Chris Delmas / AFP) 79

Scenarios | Emerging Technology
Scenario Four
A genetically-engineered pandemic
Against the backdrop of biotechnology advances – such as by China, the
US, India, South Korea and several EU member states – a genetically
engineered pathogen is accidentally released. A global health crisis
ensues, similar to or even worse than the Covid-19 pandemic. Affected
nations accuse each other of being responsible for the outbreak rather
than cooperating, hampering their ability to recover.
So what?
Healthcare systems are overwhelmed and economies disrupted, leading
some governments to expand bio-surveillance – causing breaches of
Image: Getty Images (Paolo Nespoli - ESA/NASA)
privacy and civil liberties that fuel tension and civil unrest.
Scenario Five
Indicators Targeting of satellites and So what?
• An increasing number of patents for genetic engineering technology Disruptive cyber events on satellite-related
and methods space assets infrastructure cause cascading disruptions and
• Public accusations by politicians or diplomatic incidents related to downtime of essential services for several days at
biotech espionage, intellectual property theft or biosecurity breaches Rapid growth in the space sector presents more least, including for many states’ emergency services,
• An increase in reported biosecurity incidents diverse targeting opportunities for nation states and finance and energy sectors.
– such as China and Russia – that aim to degrade
their adversaries’ capabilities and obtain sensitive
information. Satellites, in particular, become more Indicators
attractive targets for state-backed cyber operations. • Governments or the private sector disclose findings
Most nation states fail to build sufficient resilience of nation-state actors attempting to compromise
in their critical services and sectors to be able to cope satellite-related infrastructure
with a potential disruptive hack of satellite-related • Increasing commitment and expenditure by
infrastructure. leading states to build and deploy more satellites
over the coming years
• Heightened military tensions or signs of an
imminent military conflict involving a highly-
capable cyber actor, such as China or Russia ◆
Risk types
Climatic Cyber Threat
Risk types Risks Exposure
Governance Infrastructure
Crisis Infectious Medical
Risk Risk
Risk Diseases Services
Image: Getty Images (Kevin Frayer / Stringer)
80 81
Scenarios
Nuclear Weapons Scenario One
Nuclear weapon arsenals grow Risk types
International efforts to prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons are coming under increased pressure Nuclear-armed states – particularly China – further expand their
owing to expansions in nuclear weapons stockpiles and growing geopolitical rivalries between nuclear-armed nuclear stockpiles and acquire more battle-ready warheads. Tensions Interstate Conflict
states. Here are our top five scenarios on the most significant challenges relating to nuclear proliferation that we among nuclear powers grow and internationally-agreed monitoring
anticipate will emerge over the next few years. mechanisms to limit public disclosure on nuclear arsenals are
weakened. Channels of communication among states on nuclear
issues gradually close.
So what?
Russia uses nuclear Nuclear weapons A nuclear arms race pushes up the risk of miscalculation and nuclear
weapons in Ukraine arsenals grow
conflict.
Indicators
• China, India, Pakistan and North Korea increase their numbers of
stockpiles and warheads
• Nuclear weapons testing resumes
• Countries threaten the use of nuclear weapons
Iran acquires Heightened North Korea • Russia does not resume talks on key non-proliferation treaties (New
nuclear weapons nuclear threat
START)
• More countries say they want nuclear weapons
Return to nuclear arms

control policies
International efforts to prevent the spread and use of

nuclear weapons are coming under increased pressure.
Image: Getty Images (TEH ENG KOON/AFP)
82 83
Scenarios | Nuclear Weapons

Heightened North Korea Iran acquires nuclear So what?
Iran’s new status as a nuclear-armed state changes
nuclear threat weapons Middle Eastern security dynamics, triggering a
regional nuclear arms race and amplifying tensions
North Korea continues to build up nuclear stockpiles, as Iran abandons the Joint Comprehensive Plan of with the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
well as those of operational warheads, throughout 2024. Action (JCPOA), the deal overseeing its nuclear
Pyongyang conducts nuclear missile tests in international programme. It enriches uranium to levels required
waters for the first time. An incident related to the launch for nuclear weapons. International Atomic Energy Indicators
of a ballistic missile triggers a short-lived conflict with Agency (IAEA) officials are prohibited from visiting • Iran abandons the JCPOA
regional neighbours – such as South Korea and Japan. and inspecting nuclear sites in the country. Russia • IAEA officials are sent out of the country
and China provide Iran with technology to weaponise • Iran demonstrates the capability to weaponise
warheads and Tehran makes preparations for its first warheads
So what? test of a nuclear weapon in the Caspian sea. • Iran prepares its first nuclear weapons test
A regional military escalation triggers a short-lived military
confrontation around the Korean Peninsula.
Risk types
Indicators
• North Korea declares its readiness to test nuclear Interstate Conflict
weapons
• North Korea announces it possess an increased number
of warheads
• The US and South Korea accelerate joint defence
planning
Risk types
Interstate Conflict
Image: Getty Images (STR/KCNA VIA KNS/AFP)
84 Image: Getty Images (ATTA KENARE / AFP) 85

Scenarios | Nuclear Weapons
Scenario Four
Return to nuclear arms
control policies
Easing geopolitical tensions lead countries with nuclear weapons to
reinvigorate information-sharing on nuclear stockpiles and warheads.
Russia returns to the non-proliferation treaty and decides to participate
in talks to negotiate a new strategic arms reduction treaty (START).
More countries across the globe sign and ratify the treaty that prohibits
nuclear weapons (TPNW).
So what?
Nuclear-armed states start reducing stockpiles and sharing information Image: Getty Images (Mikhail Svetlov / Contributor)
on nuclear arsenals, which lowers the risk of a nuclear war.
Scenario Five
Indicators
• Russia rejoins the non-proliferation treaty Russia uses nuclear So what?
Russian aggression prompts a more active role in
•
•
Russia rejoins talks to negotiate a new START treaty
More countries ratify the TPNW
weapons in Ukraine the Ukraine war by Western allies, leading to a major
military confrontation on European soil.
Following military losses in Ukraine, Russia decides
to deploy nuclear warheads on the battlefield against
Ukrainian military installations or key civilian Indicators
infrastructure. NATO Allies hold Nuclear Planning • Russia holds a nuclear test on its territory or in
Group meetings and, while condemning the attack, international waters
decide not to respond with a nuclear escalation. They • Western intelligence agencies detect movement of
agree instead to send more arms, military equipment warheads in Russia
and personnel to Ukraine. • NATO holds non-routine Nuclear Planning Group
meetings ◆
Risk types
Civil Conflict
Civil Unrest
Risk types Interstate Conflict
Interstate Conflict
Image: Getty Images (Antonio Masiello / Contributor)
86 87
Scenarios
Societal Pressures Scenario One
The global tech rejection Risk types
Social movements, grassroots activism and threats to public health can impact government decisions, international A connected global community of individuals directs their grievances
relations and security policies. Here are our top five scenarios on how the expectations and demands of societies, towards global tech giants. Frustrated by hardship, economic stagnation Activism and Protests
and wider transnational challenges to human well-being, are likely to influence geopolitical and security outcomes and unemployment, they perceive those firms as threatening their
over the next few years. livelihoods. Anger is particularly directed towards companies involved Civil Unrest
in developing or using artificial intelligence (AI). In an attempt to garner
support, the populist governments of several Western states introduce
restrictive measures aimed at curtailing research and use of AI and
related technologies.
Major disease
outbreak
So what?
A backlash against AI slows down technological innovation in some
A wave of
anti-government countries, impacting their economic growth while shifting the balance
uprisings of power towards those states that continue to embrace these fields.
The global
tech rejection Indicators
• A company with a very large human workforce announces a
significant number of redundancies after incorporating AI tech into
its processes
• A high-profile scandal or controversy involving AI gains significant
coverage in international media or on social media
Migration Far-right • Misinformation and disinformation become increasingly prevalent
crises extremism gains and ingrained in online rhetoric surrounding AI
traction in Europe
Social movements, grassroots activism and threats

to public health can impact government decisions,
international relations and security policies.
Image: Getty Images (Frederic J. BROWN / AFP)
88 89
Scenarios | Societal Pressures
Scenario Two Scenario Three Indicators

Major disease outbreak A wave of anti-government • High-profile scandals emerge regarding a
government’s misuse of economic recovery funds
A new strain of avian influenza emerges in a rural uprisings • Allegations of government corruption in major
province in Southeast Asia, quickly spreading to economies are reported in mainstream media
urban areas, where the first human cases are reported. Anti-government protest movements emerge across • An influential opposition, religious, or otherwise
Despite efforts to contain the virus, it mutates, several countries in Africa and the Middle East – such popular figure calls for an anti-government
gaining the ability to transmit from human to human as Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Morocco, Sierra Leone, Tunisia and movement or violence
and leading to a rapid increase in the number of cases. Yemen. These are in response to growing discontent • An incident of a large, peaceful protest elicits an
International travel facilitates the spread of the virus with governments’ effectiveness at managing climate, extremely disproportionate and violent police
to other countries in Asia, Europe and the Americas, environmental and cost-of-living crises. Opposition response
causing a global pandemic that stretches healthcare parties, labour unions and activists successfully • Governments implement protest-related curfews,
systems to their limits. mobilise the public to attend frequent, large, highly bans on gatherings, or deploy the military to
disruptive and sometimes violent demonstrations in disperse crowds
capitals to oppose government responses which they
So what? perceive as ineffective. The authorities, struggling to
Countries introduce strict quarantine measures – contain the protests, implement state-of-emergency
including closing borders, shutting down airports measures.
and imposing lockdowns – causing global economic
disruption as businesses close, travel is restricted and So what?
supply chains are obstructed.
Widespread, sustained violent protests test the
abilities of governments to maintain a stable
Indicators environment, creating conditions that are conducive
to increased social disorder and criminality.
• News of a new, more dangerous avian influenza
variant in international media
• Governments and international health
organisations issue statements warning that they Risk types
may have to take measures against the new global
disease Activism Regime
• A major government reintroduces lockdowns and Protests Instability
Image: Getty Images (TANG CHHIN Sothy / AFP)
Civil Safety and

Unrest Security
Risk types
Civil Unrest
Medical Services
Infectious Diseases
90 Image: Getty Images (Ludovic MARIN / AFP) 91

Scenarios | Societal Pressures
Scenario Four
Migration crises
A combination of food insecurity, conflict or climate change leads to
a significant uptick in global migration in 2024. Border crises ensue,
as several states – including within Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and
North and Central America – close significant portions of their borders,
with some deploying their armed forces to enforce more stringent
border security measures. Image: Getty Images (Thomas COEX / AFP)
So what? Scenario Five

The influx of migrants places strains on resources within receiving Far-right extremism gains Indicators
communities and fuels social tensions, leading to political unrest and
giving rise to nationalist and populist movements. traction in Europe • A far-right party comes to power in Europe
or, if already in power, perpetuates negative,
inflammatory rhetoric about ethnic minorities or
Public opinion on political and economic issues
LGBTQ+ rights
Indicators becomes increasingly polarised among European
• The authorities release information detailing that
countries. Increased connectivity online between
• Larger than usual migration numbers they have uncovered an increasing number of far-
groups with views dissenting from the mainstream
• Increased focus on migration in international media right terrorist plots or networks
allows for the further normalisation of extremist
• Right-wing/ far-right protests against migration • A European government announces new
ideologies espoused by white supremacist and
• Heightened rhetoric from governments regarding the protection of legislation or initiatives protecting LGBTQ+ rights
misogynistic groups. The frequency and impact of
borders and sovereignty or supporting refugees
far-right-related violence within EU member states –
• Violence from military or police against migrants, or other travellers, • A negative high-profile news story involving
particularly Germany – significantly increases.
at their country’s borders LGBTQ+ or ethnic minority individuals gains
significant traction and condemnation on
So what? social media ◆
The rise of far-right extremism undermines democratic
norms and institutions, fuelling the adoption of more
isolationist policies, while increasing the risk of social
unrest and conflict within and between countries.
Risk types
Activism and Safety and
Protests Security Risk
Terrorism
Civil Unrest
Risk
LGBTQ+ Terrorism
Discrimination Threat
Risk types Regime

Instability
Overland Travel State Agencies
Image: Getty Images (John Moore / Staff)
92 93
Resilience Perceptions Survey

About the Resilience Key findings
Perceptions Survey 2024 War, environmental destabilisation and cyber loss, as well as cyber espionage and cybercrimes. The
risks are expected to pose the greatest threats to next most frequently selected risks were economic
For Strategic Outlook 2024, we have included – for the the resilience of organisations over the next five instability and market volatility arising from political
first time – a Resilience Perceptions Survey which reflects years, according to the majority of respondents. This and social unrest. Respondents view that the way their
views from our clients on the state of global resilience. includes civil and interstate conflicts, risks stemming organisations are structured and a lack of strategy are
Corporate security and crisis risk management from climate change, natural hazards and biodiversity the biggest impediments for creating resilience.
professionals representing more than 20 sectors
completed the survey in August 2023. The objective
of the survey was to gain peer benchmarking insights
of value to those tasked with building or advising on
resilience in their organisations.
Rethinking resilience
3
The next global crisis is unlikely to look the same as

the last one, or the ones that preceded it. The nature,
timing and impacts will all be very different. The
challenge for those responsible for building resilience
against future shocks therefore involves balancing
efforts to continuously scan the horizon to identify
risks before they are fully formed, while also keeping
pace with existing challenges. Image: Getty Images (d3sign) 1 2
The findings from our first Resilience Perceptions Survey Images: Unsplash 1(Jakob Owens), 2(Jade Koroliuk), 3(Ray-Harrington)
nevertheless suggest that corporate security and crisis interdependencies and are likely to evolve rapidly,
risk management professionals are, for the most part, with highly consequential impacts for geopolitics and
preoccupied with the latter. That is to say that security security, as well as business risks.
teams remain principally concerned with those
risks that pose a clear and present danger to their Focusing disproportionately on risks that have already
organisation’s people, assets and reputation. been realised, at the expense of planning for those that
are on or are just over the horizon, highlights a key
This is understandable, given that the direct impact of gap in resilience. This suggests that a more holistic
risks which have already materialised – such as conflicts approach to resilience is required - one in which a more
and natural hazards – are felt more immediately and complete near and long term risk picture is routinely
require an instant response. That less attention is considered and factored into strategic decision-making,
presently being paid to the security implications of with advice from domain experts to stay ahead of novel
less conventional risks – such as those stemming from risks.
advancements in AI and related technologies – which
are generally less known or understood, is a concern. The barriers that appear to often prevent the adoption
Such novel risks are complex in terms of global of such an approach, according to our survey, include
current organisational structures and lack of strategy. 1 2
Images: Getty Images 1(Dakota Roos), 2(Paul Bradbury)

94 95
Most organisations feel they are not ready for future to the majority (44%) that view they are unprepared. And Global health issues generally now appear to be less introduced in response to the Covid-19 pandemic have
climate-related shocks and their impacts. Only 3.5% of almost two thirds believed that the security implications of a concern for organisations. Only a few respondents made their organisation become more resilient. And
respondents said that their organisation is fully prepared of climate change are neither widely understood within chose future pandemics as the top risk for their sector in 88% believe that their organisation is either prepared
to cope with the effects of climate change, natural hazards their organisation nor being routinely accounted for the next five years. Eighty percent thought that measures (81%) or fully prepared (7%) for another global pandemic.
and biodiversity loss over the next five years, compared within strategic decision-making.
1 2
4
3
4
When it comes to Artificial Intelligence (AI), opinion or displacements, over the next five years. Whereas More traditional risks pose the greatest challenge for supply chains over the next five years. These were
is split. Slightly more than half (53%) of respondents the remainder (47%) thought that their sector is either most organisation’s supply chains. Market volatility, followed by climate and cyber-related risks. Other risks,
view their organisation’s sector as either extremely not very or not at all vulnerable to these types of conflict and economic instability were the most including sanctions, regulatory changes, maritime and
or somewhat vulnerable to significant AI-related disruptions. And only a fifth of respondents identified frequently identified risks by respondents, when asked other governance risks, such as rising authoritarianism,
social and economic disruptions, such as job losses AI as posing a major threat. what will present the greatest risk to their organisation’s corruption, slavery and state surveillance.
5 6 7
5
Images: Unsplash 1(Harry Cunningham), 2(Tengyart), 3(Thalia Karr), 4(redcharlie), Getty Images 5(Andriy Onufriyenko), 6(Ezra Bailey), 7(Jackyenjoyphotography) Images: Unsplash 1(CDC), 9(cherrydeck), 2(cdd20), 3(Sam), 4(Athanasios Papazacharias), 5(Guillaume Bolduc)
96 97
Security professionals view that the pace at which and Governance (ESG) regulations over the next five Dragonfly carried out the Resilience Perceptions Survey in preparedness for changes in global risks and what they
new regulatory changes are being introduced also years. And 18% said they were extremely concerned August 2023. All respondents were existing Dragonfly see as the greatest challenges their organisations face
presents strategic risks for organisations and about this. Most were also concerned about their customers, primarily working within resilience over the coming five years.
their resilience. Almost half of respondents believe organisation’s ability to keep up with advancements building remits, including corporate security, crisis
their organisations are somewhat concerned about in disruptive technology fields – including AI, management and intelligence. The respondents represented more than 20 sectors,
their ability to keep up with Environmental, Social quantum computing and biotechnology. including financial and professional services,
The survey consisted of ten questions aimed at manufacturing, oil and gas, technology, aviation,
understanding how they perceive their organisation’s healthcare, and international organisations.
2 3 4 2
6
7
Dragonfly regularly conducts benchmarking surveys. If you would like to participate in future surveys and receive
their results, please sign up at www.dragonflyintelligence.com.
Images: Unsplash 1(Taylor van Riper), 2(viviana-rishe-Padaipw), 3(raychan-iAlerP), Getty Images 4(Ezra Bailey), 5(Yuichiro Chino), 6(Andriy Onufriyenko) Images: Getty Images 1(Frank and Helena), 2(Monty Rakusen), 3(skynesher), 4(Kentaroo Tryman), 5(Yuichiro Chino), 6(Matelly),7(Image Source)
98 99
Global Events Calendar

Image sources can be found on the inside cover (page 2)
100 101
Global Events Calendar
102 103
Regional Analysis
EUROPE Divergence
Polarisation
Dissatisfaction
Image: Getty Images (Kiran Ridley / Contributor)
105
104
104 105
Top Five Risk Drivers
1
EU fragmentation
Divergence between EU member states on economic,
political and security matters will probably broaden. This
3
Climate extremes
Extreme climatic events – such as heatwaves, flooding
and wildfires – are occurring more frequently and with
is likely to impede regional initiatives – such as support increasing severity. The risks to economic and financial
for Ukraine, energy-sharing programmes and sanctions on hubs have grown, as have those facing rural areas
Russia. Less regional unity would also call into question crucial for agricultural production. Countries with less
the sustainability of bloc-wide approaches to defence and resilient infrastructure and inefficient bureaucratic
security policies. This fragmentation will probably lead to systems, such as Croatia, Greece, Italy and Montenegro,
popular discontent within dissenting countries, especially are likely to be worst affected. And such extreme events
those like Bulgaria and Hungary, which are dependent on EU will probably also continue to drive environmentalist
funds for post-Covid or general economic recovery support. targeting of businesses perceived as being responsible.
2
Political polarisation
Voting populations are becoming more polarised across
the region. Those socio-political divisions are likely to lead
Five Central
and Eastern
Four of the five
most populous
Record-breaking
flooding in
Wildfires caused
to governments being less inclined or able to maintain EU countries major damage to
European Slovenia caused
stable environments, particularly where far-right, far-left, have far-right or infrastructure in at
countries an estimated
Eurosceptic or pro-Russian parties are on the ascent. In nationalist parties least six European
such instances, larger and more frequent protests (up to and have banned €7 billion of
in government or countries in 2023 4
including civil unrest), targeting of businesses perceived Ukrainian grain 1 damage in 2023 3
polling above 20% 2
as siding with rivals, and discrimination against ethnic
minorities and LGBTQ+ individuals will probably occur Sources: 1 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 2 The Economist, 3 Bloomberg, 4 Bloomberg
4 5
more often.
Poor economic conditions Balancing China and the US

Inflation, high interest rates and low growth will Competition between China and the US is likely to push
continue to drive activism, protests and supply chain European governments and businesses to attempt to
disruptions in 2024. Countries that already had the balance the demands of both. Countries like France and
highest public-debt-to-GDP ratios in 2023, such as Germany will face the prospect of souring relations with
France, Greece, Italy and Spain in particular, will lack the US to allow for further trade with, and investment
the leverage to curtail these. Public dissatisfaction from, Beijing. Such developments will probably heighten
with high prices and strained living standards will the potential for corporate espionage and IP theft, and
probably accelerate disputes between workers and thus the likelihood of European state intervention and
employers, leading to disturbances to supply chains. regulations focused on Chinese business interests.
Countries in debt to Beijing, like Serbia and Montenegro,
will probably continue to drift towards China.
Image: Getty Images (JEFF PACHOUD/AFP)
Inflation, high interest rates

and low growth will continue to
drive activism, protests, and supply
Image: Getty Images (Sakis MITROLIDIS / AFP)
chain disruptions in 2024.
106 107
Forecasts
4 5 6
Pre-election hostilities Riots in France Wildfires
in Lithuania prompt evacuations
Likely Likely Likely
January - May 2024 2024 May - September 2024
Several physical sabotage and A wave of protests and riots Wildfires cause widespread
hostile cyber incidents targeting occurs in France for at least disruption and evacuations
the defence, government, energy several days, resulting in clashes from a major European city.
or communications sectors with police and significant
12 occur ahead of the presidential damage to business frontages.
and parliamentary elections in
11 9 Lithuania in May 2024.
86 4
10 5
14 7 7 8 9
3
15 2 Environmental activism Migration to Europe Russian retaliation
for Ukraine support
1 Likely Likely More than even chance
13
2024 2024 2024
A wave of unusually violent Food insecurity and conflict Russia steps up cyber and sabotage
environmentalist attacks occurs in Africa and the Middle East operations against European
in Germany, France, or the UK leads to another large wave of countries supporting Ukraine,
against businesses perceived as migration to Europe. causing at least one instance of
responsible for climate change, major disruption to internet,
such as energy and aviation firms. energy, or telecoms channels.
Risk Consequence 10 11 12
Activism Climatic and Right-wing terrorism Reduced support Climate shocks
Civil Conflict Civil Unrest
and Protests Tectonic Risks in Germany for Ukraine hit grain supplies
More than even chance Less than even chance Unlikely
Critical Hostile Interstate Overland 2024 2024 2024
Infrastructure Cyber Activity Conflict Travel
There is a spate of far-right Popular sentiment around An extreme weather event
Regulatory Supply Chain Terrorism terrorism incidents in Germany. support for Ukraine sours while significantly damages European
Aspects Risk Risk several major contributors – such grain production capacity,
as the Netherlands or Germany – driving up food prices and the
significantly decrease their aid risk of hardship-related unrest.
1 2 3 to Ukraine.
EU sanctions on Russia Protesters target EU AI regulation
Paris Olympics 13 14 15
Very likely Likely Likely The EU phases out Poland deploys NATO deploys
2024 July - September 2024 Mid-2024 Russian gas troops to Ukraine to Ukraine
At least several hundred Very unlikely Very unlikely Very unlikely
The EU maintains sanctions on The EU finalises and
Russia, including in relation to protesters frustrated with high implements an agreement 2024 2024 2024
its oil product prices, financial living costs, wage disputes and on its AI Act, enabling The EU manages to ensure Poland publicly acknowledges that A Russian missile attack on a
services, banks and SWIFT, in an government economic policies, the bloc to enforce some enough alternative sources of it has deployed troops into western NATO member state leads the
effort to encourage Russia to cease among other issues, try to regulations on higher-risk energy and energy infrastructure Ukraine, raising the risk of other alliance invoking Article 5 to
its invasion of Ukraine. disrupt Olympic events with AI systems and foundation to completely stop the import of NATO members becoming directly intervene directly in the war
protests lasting several days. models from mid-2024. Russian gas. involved in the conflict. in Ukraine.
108 109
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in Europe Countries to watch
The chart below provides the average threat, risk, hazard and vulnerability levels for countries within the region The summary outlook map below indicates our overall estimate on the trajectory for security and stability risks
across each of our 25 risk typologies. Our levels range from negligible (1) to critical (6). for each country in the coming 12 months. The annual outlook trends chart shows our net forecast on whether the
risk outlook is improving, remaining broadly consistent, or worsening, as well as showing changes in our assessed
trajectory ratings from 2016-2024.
Risk and threat level
1 - Negligible 2 - Low 3 - Moderate 4 - High 5 - Severe 6 - Critical Outlook trends
Improving Consistent Worsening
Regional year-on-year trend
110 111
Regional Analysis
EURASIA War
Corruption
Discontent
Image: Getty Images (Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP)
112 113
1
Direction of the war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is near-certain to remain the dominant
driver of geopolitical and security risks across Eurasia
3Closer China-Russia relations
Improved diplomatic and economic ties with China will remain
crucial to the continuation of Russia’s war effort over the next
over the coming year. Heading into 2024, neither Russia year. But as this takes the form of greater Russian economic
nor Ukraine appear close to achieving their strategic dependence, China’s leverage over Russia is likely to grow.
goals, nor genuinely contemplating a peace deal. The side Although part of a wider international realignment into mutually
effects will almost certainly continue to range from food hostile liberal democratic and non-democratic blocs, driven by
and commodity price volatility, shifting relations between US rivalry with China, this dependence will continue to drive the
Moscow and countries across Eurasia, and Russia’s long-term weakening of Russia as a regional power.
weakening as a military, political and diplomatic power.
2
Russian domestic instability
President Putin’s regime is likely to face frequent challenges
over the next year. The stalled invasion of Ukraine is at the
Russia’s military
casualties were
Officially,
China-Russia
bilateral trade
All of Eurasia
root of these, including further domestic mobilisation, scores as
Russia’s climbed to
economic instability and strained government-military around 300,000, ‘moderate’ or
economy US$155.1 billion
relations. The Wagner Group’s mutiny in June 2023 according to higher on the SIAS
contracted by in January-
showed that the government’s ability to suppress threats US estimates in governance risk
to the regime is not total. These challenges are likely to 2.1% in 2022 2 August 2023 3
August 2023 1 rating system 4
undermine Russia’s influence in Eurasia, as allies view
Russia as an unreliable political and security partner. Sources: 1 The New York Times, 2 Federal State Statistics Service, 3 South China Morning Post, 4 Dragonfly monitoring, 5 United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
4
Poor governance
across Eurasia 5
Corruption in
wartime Ukraine
Poor governance across Eurasia is likely to increase Distrust between state elites on one side, and
the potential for social and political instability in civil society and military volunteers on the other,
2024. In Central Asia, a combination of corruption remains a potential source of political division in
and failure to provide basic services will probably Ukraine in the near term. This comes amid ongoing
drive public discontent. And in Georgia and Moldova, serious allegations that officials continue to use
political polarisation appears poised to remain high, public positions for private gain, even in wartime.
amid disputes over whether to align with Western The government has tried to address this dynamic,
Image: Getty Images
countries or Russia. These issues are likely to drive as a rift in social and political unity in Ukraine
(Global Images Ukraine / Contributor) a variety of risks in 2024, including civil unrest and would hinder operations in the war with Russia.
regime instability. In our analysis, it would likely weaken public and
Nine out of ten Ukrainians military morale, as well as public governance
Image: Getty Images (Karen MINASYAN / AFP) consider corruption as Ukraine’s
most serious problem after the
war 5
Poor governance across
Eurasia is likely to increase the
potential for social and political Image: Getty Images
(Gavriil GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / AFP)
instability in 2024.
114 115
Forecasts
4 5 6
Ukraine’s critical Regime instability Tajikistan -
infrastructure in Russia Kyrgyzstan conflict
Likely Likely More than even chance
November 2023 - March 2024 2024 2024
8 Russia targets Ukraine’s There is another major challenge Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan engage
national infrastructure, to the Russian government, in a days-long violent conflict
7 especially its power grid, in a such as a military mutiny, that over disputed borders and water
9 concerted, large-scale missile leads to splits within the elite supplies, escalating into cross-
5 and drone campaign. or worsening relations between border artillery and drone strikes.
11 6 President Putin and the military.
12 4 2 7 8 9
13 10 1 3
Unrest in Kazakhstan Breakthrough in Azerbaijan invades
14
Ukraine conflict Armenia proper
15 More than even chance Less than even chance Unlikely
2024 2024 2024
Economic hardship, accusations Either Russia or Ukraine make After its victory in Nagorno-
of government authoritarianism a major breakthrough in the Karabakh, Azerbaijan attacks
and corruption prompt a wave of conflict that moves them closer southern Armenia, in an attempt
unrest across major cities to their respective strategic goals, to create a land corridor to the
in Kazakhstan. even though fighting continues. Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan.
Risk consequence
10 11 12
Activism Civil Critical
Corruption Crisis Risk Terrorism in Central Asia Conflict in the Black Sea Instability in Moldova
and Protests Repression Infrastructure
Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely
Civil Unrest Espionage Governance Risk Hotel Threats Interstate Conflict 2024 2024 2024
Maritime Regime Regulatory Security & State Insecurity in northern The Russian navy frequently Pro-Russian politicians in
Risk Instability Aspects Safety Risk Agencies Afghanistan spills over into attacks or destroys civilian Moldova – with the help of
Central Asia, resulting in frequent vessels in the Black Sea, driving Russia – foment a political
Supply Terrorism and high-impact terrorist attacks an increase in oil and grain crisis that undermines the pro-
Chain Risk Risk across Central Asia. prices worldwide. Western government.
1 2 3 13 14 15
Ukrainian attacks Mobilisation Business environment Regime instability Belarus enters the war Nuclear weapons
inside Russia in Russia in Russia in Belarus in Ukraine
Likely Likely Likely Unlikely Very Unlikely Extremely unlikely
January to July 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024
Ukraine conducts near-weekly The Russian government The business environment in Nationwide anti-government The Belarusian military deploys Russia uses nuclear weapons in
attacks inside Russia, up to and initiates further military Russia continues to deteriorate, protests in Belarus destabilise its own troops to Ukraine in Ukraine, either on Ukraine itself
including car bombings, drone mobilisation to boost its troop amid seizures of Western assets the government there. support of Russia, opening up a or in the Black Sea.
attacks and missile strikes on numbers in Ukraine. every few months and mounting new front in the north of Ukraine.
areas close to the shared border. economic pressures.
116 117
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in Eurasia Countries to watch
118 119
Regional Analysis
WEST & Terrorism
CENTRAL Juntas
Hardship
AFRICA
Image: Getty Images (OUSMANE MAKAVELI / AFP)
120 121
1
Collapsed regional cooperation
A breakdown in relations among members of the regional
body ECOWAS is likely to drive instability in 2024. The coup
3
Climate pressures
Africa’s Sahel region is likely to experience a particularly dry year
in 2024 amid an El Nino event. In Mali and Burkina Faso, where
in Niger on 26 July exposed growing fault lines among military the climate is already harsh, climate risks – such as drought –
juntas and elected governments, as well as the inability of will very likely compound ongoing food emergencies and water
ECOWAS to act as a deterrent for further military takeovers. insecurity. This will make hardship protests highly likely and
And over the next five years, there is a high likelihood of increase the appeal of joining insurgent groups for disenfranchised
ECOWAS implementing more sanctions and border closures individuals. Conflicts between herders and farmers, as well as
as the military regimes try to expand their influence, between different pastoral groups, are also likely to be exacerbated
weakening trade between neighbouring countries and by climate pressures amplifying existing inequalities, contributing
impeding economic development in the region. towards migration and eroding livelihoods.
2
Rising influence of the military
The growing presence of military officials at the head of several
states in the region is likely to continue driving cronyism, There have been 10 Forty-eight Over 100,000
corruption and governance risks in several countries. Military Five countries million people in hectares of
successful coups in
leaders appear determined to consolidate their hold on power West and Central farmland in Nigeria
West and Central have militaries
by modifying constitutions in their favour, manipulating were inundated
Africa and the in power 2 Africa face acute
elections and appointing close allies to diminish the risk of by flood water in
counter-coups. The impacts of this trend will probably become Sahel since 2020 1 food insecurity 3
2022 4
more pronounced over the year, leading to an increase in
bureaucratic obstacles for Western organisations. Sources: 1 Al Jazeera, 2 Dragonfly analysis, 3 Reuters, 4 Reuters, 5 Trading Economics
4
Withdrawal of
international partners 5
Inflationary pressures
Inflationary pressures driven by global supply
chain disruptions and extreme weather events will
The withdrawal of international partners from sustain insecurity across the region. Alongside
military operations in several countries will hamper generally high levels of financially-motivated
the local governments’ abilities to contain the threat criminality, such pressures will fuel a high
posed by jihadist groups. Juntas have demanded frequency of hardship protests in West and Central
such withdrawals on the basis of regaining their Africa. The collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative
sovereignty, but local militaries appear ill-equipped between Russia and Ukraine, in particular, has
to counter the jihadist threat. And new partners, worsened already-high food inflation across the
such as the Wagner Group, will likely struggle to fill region. And India, one of the largest rice exporters,
the gap left behind by Western militaries, let alone implemented a ban on the export of non-basmati
Image: Getty Images (Nipah Dennis / AFP) Image: Getty Images reverse the course of jihadist expansion. white rice in August which has caused prices to
(Global Images Ukraine / Contributor) reach a five-year high.
The collapse of the Black Sea Annual consumer price inflation

rate in Sierra Leone is at
Grain Initiative between Russia and 45%
Ukraine, in particular, has worsened for 2023 5
already-high food inflation across Image: Getty Images
the region. (Giles Clarke/UNOCHA)
122 123
Forecasts
4 5 6
Inflation Floods Express kidnappings
in Ghana in Cameroon in DRC
Likely Likely Less than an even chance
2024 May-November 2024 2024
The annual inflation rate stays Flooding during the rainy Express kidnappings in
above 40%, sustaining the season severely disrupts road Kinshasa occur on a weekly
conditions for hardship protests travel and supply chains in the basis, including in the affluent
8 and petty crime in Accra. west, including in Yaounde. Gombe district.
9
3 6 5
11 7
34 7 8 9
13 2
12 Terrorism Political volatility Fuel shortages
14 in Benin in Cote d’Ivoire in Nigeria
Less than even chance Unlikely Unlikely
15 1 2024 2024 2024
JNIM mounts weekly attacks in There is widespread civil An acute foreign currency
Benin’s northern national parks. unrest lasting weeks after the deficit in Nigeria prompts
Ivorian government bars several prolonged countrywide fuel
opposition figures from running shortages and blackouts.
in the 2025 general elections.
Risk consequence
10 11 12
Activism Climatic and
Civil Conflict Civil Unrest Rebel violence Banditry Civil conflict
and Protests Tectonic Risks
in the DRC in Nigeria in Mali
Critical Criminal
Corruption Crisis Risk Unlikely Very unlikely Very unlikely
Infrastructure Violence
December 2023 2024 2024
General crime Governance Risk Kidnap Organised Crime M23 rebels mount a brief There are goods shortages in Tuareg nationalist groups
incursion into Goma disrupting Abuja because of bandit groups launch an offensive on Bamako
Regime State Supply Terrorism the December general elections. consolidating positions outside prompting daily bouts of
Instability Agencies Chain Risk Risk of the city. violence in the capital
1 2 3 13 14 15
Russian influence Presidential elections Humanitarian pressures Violent protests Counter coup Jihadist insurgency
in CAR in Mali in Chad in Senegal in Guinea in Burkina Faso
Almost certain Very likely Likely Very unlikely Very unlikely Extremely unlikely
2024 2024 2024 January - February 2024 2024 2024
Western countries implement Junta leader Assimi Goita Continued arrivals of Sudanese President Sall stands for re- A military faction launches a coup Jihadists launch a large-scale
further sanctions in response to wins the presidential election, refugees in eastern Chad election, contradicting earlier against the junta, during which offensive on Ouagadougou to
Russia deepening its ties with diminishing the prospects of a worsen the humanitarian crisis pledges and prompting violent there are several days of armed take power.
the CAR. return to civilian rule in Mali. there. opposition protests in Senegal. fighting in Conakry.
124 125
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in West & Central Africa Countries to watch
126 127
Regional Analysis
EAST & Austerity
SOUTHERN Extremism
Cyber-espionage
AFRICA
Image: Getty Images (Emidio JOZINE / AFP)
128 129
1
Chinese influence
China is likely to exploit its prominent role in
developing digital infrastructure in the region, pushing
3Violent Islamist extremism
Local jihadists are likely to remain highly intent on and capable
of expanding the scale and reach of their operations in the region.
up cyberespionage risks, particularly for businesses in Currently, such groups are struggling to hold territory from which
strategic sectors, such as mining. Governments in the they can launch wide-ranging attacks. But the withdrawal of
region appear to favour Chinese technological offerings African Union troops from Somalia by the end of 2023 means
(such as data centres, 5G networks and subsea cables) due military forces will probably struggle to contain such groups.
to competitive pricing. But there seems to be little political And despite the presence of foreign forces in Mozambique, we
will, even in more developed economies like South Africa anticipate extremists will maintain a low-scale presence around
and Kenya, to curb the risk of cyberespionage through legal gas-producing areas there, as well as in wealthier cities, for
or cybersecurity measures. instance in South Africa, for recruitment and revenue purposes.
2
Climate shocks
East Africa is likely to experience higher-than-average
rainfall in the coming year, leading to localised flooding China is linked There were 138
Ethiopia’s
inflation rate
events. Climate experts are predicting at least a moderate El Niño caused
to at least 70% terrorist incidents eased for
El Nino event in 2024. This commonly causes increased widespread flooding
of 4G network in Somalia the fourth
rainfall in the region, leading to a greater risk of damaging in eastern Africa in
infrastructure in between January consecutive
flooding events, especially around rivers and lakeshores, 2015 and 2016 2
such as the White Nile and the Tana River. In addition, Sub-Saharan Africa 1 and October 2023 3 month in July
the knock-on effects of flooding will probably exacerbate 2023, to 28.8% 4
intercommunal conflicts that are driven by competition Sources: 1 African Business, 2 United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 3 TerrorismTracker, 4 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 5 ReliefWeb
4 5
over resources.
Austerity measures Unreliable infrastructure

There is a high likelihood of heavily indebted Worsening electricity provisions are likely to exert
governments in the region implementing austerity socio-economic pressures on populations and
measures in 2024, sustaining hardship in the contribute towards rising costs for businesses
interim. Countries such as Kenya are struggling operating in major cities, such as in Zimbabwe,
Image: Getty Images to manage US Dollar shortages as periodic debt Zambia, Namibia and Mozambique. Major cities
(LINTAO ZHANG/AFP) repayments deplete reserves. Some governments largely rely on hydropower stations. But with lower-
in the region – including Kenya and Malawi – than-usual levels of precipitation expected during
70% of the region’s

have shown willingness to restructure debt and
cut subsidies to regain investor confidence. Still,
southern Africa’s 2024 rainy season, the reliability
of electricity supplies will probably worsen.
population relies on rainfed they will probably struggle to address inflation, Cascading impacts will probably affect supply
agriculture for food, income driving up the risk of disruptive community and chains and livelihoods, amplifying the potential
Image: Getty Images (EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP) and employment 5 opposition protests in urban areas. for hardship-related social unrest and operational
disruptions.
Cascading impacts will

probably affect supply chains and
livelihoods, amplifying the potential
for hardship-related social unrest
and operational disruptions. Image: Getty Images (Hassan Ali ELMI / AFP)
130 131
Forecasts
4 5 6
Fighting LGBTQ+ Chinese influence
in Ethiopia discrimination in Uganda in the region
2024 2024 2024
There are sporadic bouts of The government publicly China further expands its digital
fighting in the Amhara region criticises foreign businesses footprint, heightening espionage
12 11 as security forces fail to fully perceived to support the LGBTQ+ risks in countries like South
disarm ethnic militias there. agenda and harrasses their staff. Africa and Kenya.
9
13 10 6 5
7 4 7 8 9
8
14 3 Rwanda-DRC Cyclones in Mozambique Foreign currency
diplomatic dispute and Madagascar shortages in Malawi
15 2
1 Likely Likely More than even chance
2024 November 2023 - April 2024 January - April 2024
Diplomatic hostility between Landfall of intense tropical Acute US dollar shortages lead
Rwanda and the DRC triggers cyclones disrupts essential to shortages of commodities in
border closures and armed services for several days, Malawi that persist at least until
skirmishes in border areas. including the closure of airspace. the tobacco export season from
April 2024.
Risk consequence 10 11 12
Protests Kidnap-for-ransom in Fighting
Activism Climatic and Critical in South Africa South Africa in Somaliland
Civil Conflict Civil Unrest
and Protests Tectonic Risks Infrastructure More than even chance Less than even chance Less than even chance
May 2024 2024 2024
Governance Hostile Interstate LGBTQ+
Conflict Kidnap Kidnap-for-ransom cases occur Delays in the Somaliland electoral
Risk Cyber Activity Discriination Dozens of people protest
frequently in major South African several times a month, targeting process trigger renewed armed
Regime Regulatory State Terrorism cities following general elections, middle-class people in Cape clashes between ethnic militia and
Instability Aspects Agencies Risk typically held in May, disrupting Town, Durban and Johannesburg. the government in Las Anod.
major freight routes.
1 2 3 13 14 15
Terrorism in Somalia Election in South Sudan Terrorism in Mozambique Regional digital growth Sanctions Presidential crisis
Very likely Very likely Likely
in Zimbabwe in Kenya
Unlikely Very unlikely Very unlikely
2024 December 2024 2024
2024 December 2024
Jihadists regain territory due President Salva Kiir is reelected, Attacks in the vicinity of the
to ATMIS withdrawal, and are raising civil conflict risks. gas sector industry in the Regional countries including Western countries lift financial There is intercommunal
able to conduct mass-casualty north remain low-scale as Angola, Malawi and Seychelles sanctions, easing foreign business violence and protests in urban
bombings around once a month the foreign forces maintain expand internet access outside transactions and enhancing centres as a result of opposition
in Mogadishu and other security provisions around of major economic hubs. investment into Zimbabwe. campaigns to impeach the
coastal towns. production sites. sitting President Ruto.
132 133
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in East & Southern Africa Countries to watch
134 135
Regional Analysis
NORTH Repression
AFRICA Hedging
Shortages
Image: Getty Images (-/AFP)
136 137
1
State repression
European countries are likely to facilitate the acquisition
of advanced surveillance technology by North African
3Macroeconomic reforms
Governments in North Africa will attempt to reform their
subsidy programmes and monetary policies to make them
countries to help them curb migration through the region more resilient to external shocks and domestic pressures.
to Europe. Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco are the biggest The pace and scale of these reforms are likely to vary across
importers of surveillance technology in North Africa and the region amid weak governance and entrenched corruption.
will probably use those capabilities to strengthen their Such changes will probably drive up the prospects of
control over individuals and organisations. This would disruptive hardship protests – especially amid a forecasted
probably be used to further stifle dissent or opposition, youth bulge – and labour stoppages. But unpredictable
including against NGOs and media companies. and unclear economic policies are also likely to result in
problematic investment environments for foreign businesses.
2
Hedging with foreign partners
Governments in North Africa, and armed non-state actors,
are highly likely to further strengthen their ties with non- In 2021 the EU Egypt plans to
North Africa
Western partners, namely China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and 76% of Algeria’s imports
allocated €11.5m for allocate $4.1
the UAE. Instability in Niger, Sudan and Libya will probably arms imports approximately
surveillance drones billion for food
open the door to greater non-Western foreign involvement in 2022 came 28.2m metric
and mobile phone subsidies in its
in the region. This includes financial support from China from Russia 2 tonnes of wheat
and Gulf countries and military assistance from Russia. In trackers to Niger 1 2023/24 budget 3
annually 4
turn, these trends would exacerbate instability risks region-
wide and mean that foreign businesses from those new Sources: 1 European Union, 2 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 3 Ministry of Finance, Egypt, 4 World Bank, 5 International Trade Administration
4 5
partners enjoy preferential treatment.
Food insecurity Defence spending

Food insecurity is very likely to pose stability risks Countries in North Africa are likely to focus on
for countries across North Africa in 2024. Many expanding their defence industry and spending in
countries have limited foreign reserves for food 2024. This will probably be by developing new local
imports and more extreme weather conditions production facilities, but also by expanding existing
Image: Getty Images (-/AFP) are already impacting domestic crop harvests and defence partnerships with the US, Russia, Israel,
supply routes. Shortages and rising prices are very Iran, Turkiye, and the UAE. Morocco is the first
likely next year. Beyond the risk of civil unrest country in Africa to produce drones, in cooperation
Algeria has significantly due to worsening hardship, food insecurity is also with Israel. Such a trend is likely to push up the
increased its military likely to drive up regime instability risks across the risk of interstate conflict in the region, namely
expenditure over the last region, particularly for authoritarian regimes where between Algeria and Morocco.
decade from around $5billion policymaking is centralised.
in 2010 to around $10billion in
Image: Getty Images (Contributor / Contributor)
2022. 5
$10bn
10
Unpredictable and unclear economic policies are also 8
$5bn
likely to result in problematic investment environments for 6
($billion)
4
foreign businesses. 2
0
2010 2022
Years
138 139
Forecasts
4 5 6
Default in Tunisia Insecurity in North Sinai Labour action in Morocco
Likely More than even chance More than even chance

2024 2024 2024
Tunisia defaults on its foreign A worsening refugee crisis in North Morocco’s largest labour union
9 Sinai due to the Israel-Hamas organises a days-long
8 4 debt, leading to acute shortages
general strike.
and surging prices of food and war driving security risks, such as
13 7 2 terrorism and civil unrest there.
11 10 medicine.
12 5 3
6 7 8 9
14
15 Air strikes Protests in Tripoli Regional
1 in Western Sahara hardship protests
More than even chance Less than even chance Less than even chance
2024 2024 2024
The Moroccan authorities openly Mass protests against the UN- A coordinated hardship protest
admit to carrying out military recognised Tripoli government campaign occurs region-wide
strikes against Polisario Front forces prime minister Dbeibah over shortages of key staples and
strongholds in Western Sahara to to resign. high food prices.
degrade its capabilities.
10 11 12
Risk Consequence Civil conflict Sahel terrorism spillover Sudan partition
in Libya
Less than even chance Unlikely Unlikely
Governance Hostile
Civil Unrest Civil Conflict Corruption 2024 2024
Risk Cyber Activity 2024
The LNA starts military A series of mass-casualty terrorist The Sudanese Army establishes
Interstate Maritime Regime Regulatory Terrorism operations to capture territory attacks in public spaces occur in an administrative region in
Conflict Risk Instability Aspects Risk in southern and western Libya. Libya, Algeria or Mauritania. eastern Sudan, with Port Sudan
as an interim capital, while
the RSF claims autonomy over
Darfur and Kordofan.
1 2 3 13 14 15
Terrorism in Niger Wagner expansion Army regains upper hand Military coup Saudi Arabia pauses Protracted crisis in Egypt
in Niger in Khartoum in Mauritania investments in Egypt after sovereign debt default
Very likely Likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely Very unlikely
2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024
A terrorist group mounts a large Wagner (or a comparable group) The Sudanese army regains An army faction deposes Saudi Arabia halts all new Mass anti-government protests
attack in the capital, Niamey. and the new junta in Niger agree effective control over critical the president ahead of investments into Egypt due to bring Egypt’s economy to a halt
on a security framework for sites in the capital, but armed presidential elections. its failure to enact promised after the government formally
counterterrorism. fighting with the RSF continues. economic reforms. defaults on foreign debts.
140 141
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in North Africa Countries to watch
142 143
Regional Analysis
MIDDLE Normalisation
EAST
Rivalry
Proxies
Image: Getty Images (Atta KENARE / AFP)
144 145
1
Disrupted normalisation and regional tensions
GCC countries’ efforts to improve regional security relations
between each other and with Iran in 2024 will very likely slow
3
Iran sustaining its independent proxies
The unprecedented escalation of the conflict between Hamas and
down, and probably stall on the latter. The rapprochement Israel will pose a credible threat to wider regional stability in 2024.
between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the most important for The intensity of the military campaign in Gaza is liable to lead to
the region, and will come under pressure as war in Gaza mass displacement and casualties among the Palestinians not seen
continues. However, we anticipate that both sides will aim in generations. A two-state solution, unviable before now, seems
to maintain dialogue due to wider security and economic impossible in any foreseeable future. It is unclear how long the
interests. Key developments that may derail efforts would war on Hamas will last, but intense military operations will not
include high profile Iranian or proxy attacks on shipping in be sustainable for Israel through 2024 and a de facto occupation
Gulf waters, should the conflict in Gaza escalate more widely. of Gaza and annexation of the West Bank is very likely. This will
2
almost certainly be a driver of popular anger, violent dissent, and
political risk for governments in the region.
Escalating conflict between Iran and Israel
The long-running shadow war between Israel and Iran is
Israel has At least 20 maritime At least 55,000
likely to become more overt in 2024. We anticipate tit-for-tat Iran aimes to take
attacks between Iran and Israel becoming more frequent and conducted at least incidents against people have
trade with Saudi
high profile at sea, in the cyber domain and against respective ten attacks against commercial vessels been displaced
Arabia to 1 billion
interests in third countries. Iran has long relied on proxies in Iranian assets in in Gulf waters by climate
USD over the next
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine for such activity, attributed to Iran degradation in
few years 1 Syria since
but we expect Iran’s involvement in any actions to become since 20213
January 2023 2 Iraq since 20164
more obvious. In response, we equally expect Israel to take
robust overt military action against such proxies, and covert Sources: 1 Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), 2 Syrian officials, 3 US Navy, 4 UN International Organization for Migration, 5 Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA)
4 5
actions in Iran.
Emerging energy Climate insecurity

partnerships
Cooperation between Gulf countries, Russia and Extreme weather conditions, in particular drier
China on energy policy is very likely to deepen in and hotter weather conditions, are likely to
2024. This is largely driven by China’s status as the challenge the resilience of critical infrastructure
region’s top oil buyer, but also by the mutual objective regionwide. Climate change-driven pressures on
of keeping oil prices high. In light of this, Russia and Iraq’s water supply is likely to have a particular
Saudi Arabia will probably continue to cooperate to impact on harvests and will be a flashpoint for
keep OPEC+ production low to put pressure on prices. civil unrest and protests, particularly in central
Preferential treatment by Gulf countries towards and southern regions. Elsewhere in the region,
Russian and Chinese investments over Western ones hot temperatures are a concern for safe working
in the energy sector will be likely. conditions and the long-term viability of oil-
Image: Getty Images (Atta KENARE / AFP)
dependent Gulf economies.
Image:
Getty Images (JOE KLAMAR / AFP)
The state of ties between OPEC 600,000

production
Saudi Arabia and Iran will be a key is likely to
monitoring point for interstate increase by
Image: Getty Images (Asaad NIAZI / AFP) 600,000 barrels
conflict risks across the region. a day in 2024 5
146 147
Forecasts
4 5 6
Iran escalates maritime Widespread civil unrest Worsening security in
insecurity in the Gulf in Iraq Iraq’s Kurdistan region
Likely Likely More than even chance
2024 2024 March to April 2024
Iran intensifies naval and A mass anti-government protest Against the backdrop of regional
maritime proxy activity to disrupt, movement over shortages of elections, intra-Kurdish rivalry
8 6 harass and seize commercial public services emerges, leading leads to fighting between opposing
12 9 5 shipping in the Gulf of Oman and to violent clashes with the Iraqi groups involving Turkiye and Iran-
7 Strait of Hormuz. security forces and a worsening backed militia groups.
of the sercurity environment in
15 13 11 10 43 2 major cities.
14 1 7 8 9
Militancy and civil strife Saudi-Iranian Iran nuclear deal
in West Bank economic cooperation collapse
2024 2024 2024
A sustained and intensifying Saudi Arabia and Iran establish Iran and Europe pull out of
period of civil strife and violent a limited framework for bilateral the 2015 nuclear deal making
attacks by Palestinian factions trade, increasing the prospect it defunct.
and youths, and Israeli extremists, of Saudi Arabia breaching US
in the West Bank and Jerusalem sanctions.
leads to intensive Israeli security
Risk consequence operations.
10 11 12
Civil Conflict Civil Unrest Corruption Governance Risk
Partition of Yemen Clashes in Turkiye escorts vessels
Hostile Cyber Activity Maritime Risk
southern Lebanon through the Black Sea
Interstate Conflict Overland Travel
Less than an even chance Unlikely Unlikely
2024 2024 2024
Regime Instability Security & Safety Risk Terrorism Risk
Southern Yemen separatists Palestinian and local armed Turkish navy ships escort vessels
announce the separation from groups engage in prolonged armed carrying Ukrainian grain to the
the north, resulting in fighting fighting in Southern Lebanon. Bosphorus Strait.
with pro-unification rivals.
1 2 3
Disorder in Saudi Arabia - Israel Espionage scandal 13 14 15
Iran normalisation stalls in the Gulf
Turkish troops pull out Iran-GCC UAE-Saudi Arabia
Likely Likely Likely of Syria maritime initiative relations fray
March 2024 2024 2024 Unlikely Unlikely Very unlikely
Iran hardliners win the legislative Efforts by Israel and Saudi Arabia Employees of a major defence 2024 2024 September 2024
elections, prompting large anti- to establish diplomatic relations company are caught conducting
government protests. stall due to the conduct of and anti-Western espionage Turkiye withdraws its troops Iran and Gulf countries Saudi Arabia imposes an
fallout from the Israel-Hamas activities in the Gulf. from northern Syria following a establish a maritime security economic blockade on the UAE,
war delaying prospects for reconciliation agreement with initiative that includes prompting a diplomatic crisis
normalisation. Syrian President Assad. frequent joint naval drills. within the GCC.
148 149
Strategic Outlook 2024 Strategic Outlook 2024
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in Middle East Countries to watch
150 151
Regional Analysis
SOUTH Demography
ASIA Debt
Ethnonationalism
Image: Getty Images (DIBYANGSHU SARKAR / AFP)
152 153
1
Extreme weather events
Climate change-driven extreme weather events are likely to
become more intense in South Asia over the coming years.
3
Foreign debt pressures
Tougher economic conditions, including foreign debt pressures, are
likely to increase the risk of protests and supply chain disruptions
This will test the resilience of critical infrastructure, such through 2024. The governments in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and
as ports, and amplify the potential for social instability. Pakistan are under pressure to cut spending and hike taxes to
Businesses in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will probably ensure debt sustainability. This will probably prompt political
face more frequent power and supply chain disruptions. opposition parties to use public frustration over the cost of living
Humanitarian crises stemming from flooding and cyclones are to mobilise support. Periodic US dollar shortages are also likely
also likely to heighten safety risks and expose governments to to affect people and businesses, especially if shortages lead to
public criticism over their limited crisis preparedness. government import bans on essential goods.
2
Shifting demographics
Changing demographics will continue shaping security
and stability dynamics in the region over the next few
years. Inward migration and population growth, notably
India had 203
heatwave days in
China was the
One fifth of South main source
in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, are likely to exert more India’s working
2022, almost double Asia’s population of FDI in the
pressure on already-limited resources, driving up the risk age population
of armed conflicts over access to food, water and land. the number of 2012, is aged between 15 Maldives,
the previous stands at 900m 3 Pakistan and Sri
Governments there will also probably struggle to provide to 24 years old 2
adequate public services and infrastructure amidst rapid record year 1 Lanka in`
urbanisation, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. A FY2023 4
Sources: 1 Independent.co.uk, 2 London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), 3 Cable News Network (CNN), 4 Beijing Review, 5 Trading Economics
burgeoning youth bulge is likely to cause instability unless
4 5
sufficient jobs are created.
Rising religious and Increasing

ethnonationalism Chinese influence
Growing religious and ethnonationalism is likely Chinese economic and military clout is likely to grow
to be a key driver of security risks in South Asia in South Asia in the coming years. This is largely
in 2024. In India, Hindu nationalist policies and as China seeks to protect its political influence and
rhetoric from the ruling BJP party will almost its shipping routes. This, in turn, will shape the
certainly continue to exacerbate societal grievances, geopolitical and security landscape in the region.
causing frequent flare-ups of communal violence, We anticipate that Beijing will further expand its
particularly in ethnically diverse states. In Pakistan infrastructure investments and involvement as a
and Bangladesh, religious polarisation will probably security partner with smaller regional countries in
contribute towards a higher risk of vigilante 2024. We assess this is likely to heighten security risks
violence and growing extremism with the potential associated with debt payment disputes, corruption,
Image: Getty Images (Asif HASSAN / AFP) Image:
Getty Images Munir uz zaman / AFP) to push up terrorism risks. communal tensions and terrorism.
The governments in Bangladesh foreign reserves

declined from $48bn in July
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan 2021 to $29.9bn in July 2023 5
are under pressure to cut spending
50
40 $48bn
30
and hike taxes to ensure debt 20
10
$29.9bn
sustainability.
Image: Getty Images (- / AFP)
0
2021 2023
154 155
Forecasts
4 5 6
Severe monsoon Power outages Same-sex marriage
in northern India in India in Nepal
June to September 2024 May to September 2024 2024
Extreme monsoon rains cause City-wide power outages caused Nepal’s parliament amends
10 7 widespread infrastructure by extreme weather occur in the legislation and formally
5 damage and flooding in a Bengaluru or another major central legalises same-sex marriage.
4 3 northern Indian state, such as Indian city lasting for several days
Gujarat or Uttar Pradesh. and disrupting the transport and
construction sectors.
11 8
13 9
12
6 2
7 8 9
14 1 Cross-sectoral labour Terrorist attack China-Bhutan
15 action in India in Pakistan border agreement
2024 2024 2024
Major labour unions organise a TTP militant group carries out a China and Bhutan resolve
days-long general strike in Uttar bombing targeting the military their border dispute, leading
Pradesh or Maharashtra. in Islamabad, Pakistan. to a worsening of China-
India relations.
Risk consequence
Activism Critical Geophysical Governance 10 11 12
Civil Unrest
and Protests Infrastructure Hazards Risk Political assassination Government collapse International aid
in Pakistan in Nepal to Afghanistan
Interstate LGBTQ+ Maritime Medical Overland
Conflict Services Travel Less than even chance Unlikely Unlikely
Discriination Risk
2024 2024 2024
Regime Regulatory Security & Terrorism A prominent politician is There is a months-long A major upping of foreign
Instability Aspects Safety Risk Risk assassinated in Pakistan. legislative gridlock in Nepal, investment and funds into
after the government coalition Afghanistan occurs following an
falls apart. economic or climatic shock.
1 2 3
Bangladesh averts BJP election win Disruptive election 13 14 15
a debt default in India in Bangladesh Major terrorist attack in Maldives-China India and Pakistan
Likely Likely Likely Sri Lanka bilateral agreement go to war
July to March 2024 May 2024 January 2024 Unlikely Extremely unlikely Extremely unlikely
Bangladesh boosts its foreign The BJP governing party The Awami League wins 2024 2024 2024
exchange reserves and meets all led by Modi wins the 2024 a general election and the Tourism declines in Sri Lanka The Maldives enters into a major There is war between India and
debt repayment deadlines. general election. opposition BNP party contests following a suicide bombing at a naval agreement with China, Pakistan, for example after a
the result, triggering months- tourist site in the west of which gives Beijing port access to major terrorist attack in Indian-
long sporadic violence in Dhaka the country. the Indian Ocean. administered Kashmir.
and other major cities.
156 157
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in South Asia Countries to watch
158 159
Regional Analysis
ASIA Downturn
PACIFIC Dought
Militarisation
Image: Getty Images (NG HAN GUAN/POOL/AFP)
160 161
1
Economic downturn
Weak economic performance, high inflation and rising
unemployment will probably increase the risk of social unrest
3
China-US technology competition
China-US technology competition is likely to intensify over the
coming years, driven by their respective national security interests.
across the region. In China, in particular, the potential for US concerns over China’s development of advanced technologies,
disruptive protests is likely to remain elevated as youth including Artificial Intelligence, to achieve its strategic security
unemployment continues to increase amid slowing economic objectives are likely to prompt Washington to impose further
growth and reduced demand for its exports from the West. controls on Chinese industry exports. This will probably include
Rising living costs will probably also lead to more frequent restrictions to some cloud services. While any operational impact
and disruptive worker strikes and protests in high income on supply chains would probably be limited, competition within
countries, such as Australia and South Korea. this sphere appears likely to heighten the risk of a wider foreign
policy divergence between the two countries.
2
El Nino and droughts
Drought caused by the El Nino weather event are likely to
exert pressure on infrastructure and supply chains through China’s youth
China’s AI industry
Japan’s defense
ministry is
A record 27.4 tons
2024, as well as amplifying wider security and stability risks. reportedly of ketamine were
jobless rate surged reportedly seeking
El Nino will probably exacerbate dry conditions due to high accounts for seized by the
to a record high of a record USD 47
temperatures, intensifying water and power shortages in approximately 10% authorities in the
parts of China and Southeast Asia. This is likely to lead to the 21.3% in June 2023 1 billion budget for
of the global total 2 region in 2022 4
local authorities placing limits on water and energy usage, FY 2024 3
with negative knock-on effects for agricultural production, Sources: 1 Deutsche Welle (DW), 2 Cambridge Wireless (CW), 3 Kyodo News, 4 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNDOC), 5 International Monetary Fund
food security and manufacturing – including potential
4 5
operational disruptions and increased costs for businesses.
Militarisation of Organised crime
Northeast Asia on the rise
Military buildup in Northeast Asia is likely to drive International criminal syndicates are likely to
up interstate conflict and aviation risks. Japan expand and diversify synthetic drug production
and South Korea seem keen to continue to up their and trafficking routes in East and Southeast Asia.
military spending and adopt new and more advanced This is to evade law enforcement by switching to
military technology to improve their preparedness new maritime, air and land routes, including in
to face threats from China, North Korea and Russia. the Andaman Sea. Law enforcement agencies will
While China and its neighbours have an interest in probably struggle to counter these groups effectively
avoiding outright military conflict, militarisation due to widespread corruption. Increased drug trading
increases the likelihood of unintentional escalations, is likely to fuel wider crime risks, including cargo
Image: Getty Images (Noel CELIS / AFP) such as a naval or air confrontations between two or theft, and increase general security risks in the region.
more states.
Asia Pacific
Image: Getty Images (Lauren DeCicca / Stringer)
is currently
responsible
for over 50%
Law enforcement agencies of global 50%+
will probably struggle to counter greenhouse
oragnised crime groups effectively Image: Getty Images (Nhac NGUYEN / POOL / AFP)
gas
emissions 5
due to widespread corruption.
162 163
Forecasts
4 5 6
China export controls Several typhoons China’s economic
overwhelm Manila downturn fuels protests
2024 June - October 2024 February to December 2024
China implements new export There is significant damage to Strikes and activism in major
controls on rare earth elements infrastructure in Manila after cities in China, such as
and critical minerals, such as several powerful typhoons Guangzhou, Dongguan and
yttrium, tungsten and bismuth, make landfall in northern parts Ningbo after an economic
4 in retaliation for foreign of the Philippines. downturn, negatively affect
sanctions. manufacturing and construction.
13 8
14 11 5
12 6 3 7 8 9
9
10 7 2 Prabowo wins Indonesian Extreme weather events Indonesian anti-
1 presidential election disrupt supply chains LGBTQ+ legislation
15 Likely More than even chance More than even chance
February to November 2024 June to November 2024 2024
The government strengthens Severe heat and major flooding A conservative Indonesian
onshoring after nationalist cause sustained disruption to government implements a new
candidate Prabowo Subianto ports and landside operations anti-LGBTQ+ law prohibiting
wins the February 2024 across Northeast and same-sex activity.
presidential election. Southeast Asia.
Electoral uncertainty Vietnam-China US military build-up
Activism Climatic and Critical naval incident on Taiwan
Civil Unrest Corruption in Taiwan
and Protests Tectonic Risks Infrastructure
More than even chance Less than even chance Unlikely
Governance Hostile Interstate LGBTQ+ Maritime January to May 2024 2024 2024
Risk Cyber Activity Conflict Discriination Risk Vietnamese naval vessels There is a short term security
All parties reiterate their
commitment to maintaining ram a Chinese Coast Guard crisis with China, for example,
Overland Regime Supply State the current Mainland China- vessel leading to a short-lived after the US increases the
Travel Instability Chain Risk Agencies Taiwan relations after a closely security crisis. number of military advisors
contested general election. deployed to Taiwan.
1 2 3
Labour union strikes Cyber attacks North Korea shoots down 13 14 15
on Japan US spy plane Military coup China blocks commercial Power struggle
Highly likely Likely Likely in Thailand shipping lane in Cambodia
2024 2024 2024 Unlikely Unlikely Very unlikely
Supply chains are disrupted for Major state-backed cyber A military standoff on the 2024 2024 2024
several weeks after workers at threat actors attack critical Korean peninsula and in nearby After the leading government China blocks a major shipping Factions in Cambodia launch a
factories and ports go on strike infrastructure in Japan, leading shipping lanes lasts several party, Pheu-Thai, pushes for route for several days causing military coup against the new
in a major manufacturing hub, to transport and power outages weeks after North Korea downs democratic reforms, the military global supply chain disruptions. prime minister Hun Manet and
such as in China, South Korea, lasting for several days. a US spy plane. orchestrates a bloodless coup. former premier Hun Sen.
Indonesia or Vietnam.
164 165
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in Asia Pacific Countries to watch
across each of our 25 risk typologies. Our levels range from negligible (1) to critical/extreme (6). for each country in the coming 12 months. The annual outlook trends chart shows our net forecast on whether the
166 167
Regional Analysis
NORTH Polarity
Infrastructure
AMERICA Competition
& THE
CARIBBEAN
Image: Getty Images (Alex Wong / Staff)
168 169
1
Political polarisation in the US
A sustained risk of political violence and activism is very
likely to be the primary impact of political polarisation
3
US-China competition
We have little doubt that US-China rivalry will continue to be
centred around technological competition. This is regardless of
in the US in 2024. There is little doubt that the 2024 which party wins the 2024 US presidential election. US officials
presidential election, and the Democratic and Republican will probably seek to enact further export controls in the artificial
primaries, will exacerbate both that polarisation and those intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors sectors.
risks. The closer the contest between the candidates is, the The main trigger for the US to impose wide-ranging, generalised
more divisive and polarising those votes will be. Isolated sanctions would be an (highly unlikely) Chinese invasion of
acts of political violence, particularly against public officials Taiwan, in our assessment.
and buildings, are probable given acute public distrust in
the integrity of the elections and the espousal of extremist
2
political ideologies.
Infrastructure resilience Caribbean

In 2022, US
to extreme weather The top concern for
60% of Americans
US experienced 18
separate weather
exports to China countries suffer
totalled $153.8 three times
The rising occurrence and strength of extreme weather polled in one recent and climate disasters
billion, up 1.6% more violent
events in the region will very probably degrade the resilience survey continues to costing at least $1
($2.4 billion) deaths than the
of infrastructure over the coming years. Scientific data be inflation 1 billion in 2022 2
indicates that the duration, intensity and frequency of from 2021 3 global average 4
extreme climatic events will continue to increase due to Sources: 1 Ipsos, 2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 3 US Department of Commerce, 4 United States Institute of Peace (USIP), 5 United States Institute of Peace (USIP)
4 5
climate change. If critical infrastructure fails to meet very
high levels of demand and withstand these events, this
would likely cause prolonged disruption to public services
such as electricity, water, and sanitation. Waning US influence Arms trafficking in
in Latin America the Caribbean
The US is unlikely to prioritise strengthening its Arms trafficking in the Caribbean is likely to
influence in Latin America. This trend accelerated sustain a high risk of organised crime-related
during the Trump administration (2017-2021) and did violence there. Studies by official regional bodies
not improve during the Biden administration (2021- suggest that the pace of the arms trafficking from
2025), so it seems all but certain to continue irrespective the US to the Caribbean will probably remain
of the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. It is high in the coming years. Given this, gun violence
likely that China will try to develop new economic and in the region is likely to be a central driver for
political ties in the region. The main priorities of the US worsening safety conditions, given the consistent
in the region will very likely remain focused on curbing flow of weapons and the frequency and intensity
Image:
Getty Images (Pool / Pool) China’s influence and developing a regional strategy to of gang turf wars.
Image: Getty Images (RICHARD PIERRIN / AFP) stem unprecedented levels of human migration.
In the last 20 years, trade
Studies by official regional between China and Latin
America has grown
bodies suggest that the pace of the
arms trafficking from the US to the
2,600% 5
Caribbean will probably remain

high in the coming years. Image: Getty Images (DAVID MCNEW / AFP)
170 171
Forecasts
4 5 6
Regulations in Mexico’s Artificial Intelligence Hurricanes
energy sector restrictions in Canada in the Caribbean
2024 2024 June to November 2024
10
The Mexican government The Canadian legislature A severe hurricane destroys
12 7 6 5
enacts strict regulations to approves a bill to prevent AI critical infrastructure and
limit foreign market entry and technologies and applications causes widespread casualties in
9 investment in its energy sector. from perpetrating fraud. the Caribbean.
13
14 8
15 4
2 7 8 9
11 3
US regulations on Left-wing extremism Joseph Biden wins a
Chinese citizens in Canada second term as President
1 and entities of the US
July to September 2024 July to December 2024 November 2024
Congress passes a bill Anarchist extremists mount a Democratic candidate,
prohibiting Chinese citizens campaign of violence against oil, and incumbent, Joseph
and businesses from owning gas and mining projects. Biden wins the 2024 US
property in the US. presidential election.
Risk Consequence
10 11 12
Activism Criminal Critical Donald Trump becomes the US security assistance Gang violence
Crisis Risk
and Protests Violence Infrastructure
next President of the US for Taiwan in Jamaica
Geophysical Less than even chance Unlikely Unlikely
Regulatory
General crime Organised Crime November 2024 2024 2024
Hazards Aspects
Republican candidate Donald The US announces plans The tourism industry in Jamaica
Regime Security & Supply Terrorism Trump wins the 2024 US to provide Taiwan further declines due to intensifying gang
Instability Safety Risk Chain Risk Risk presidential election. military equipment to increase violence around resort areas.
its naval capability.
1 2 3 13 14 15
Protests around 2024 US Presidential elections Worsening gang violence National elections New security strategy to Right-wing extremism
Republican primary in Mexico in Mexico in Haiti combat cartels in Mexico in the US
Very Likely Very likely Likely Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely
July 2024 June 2024 2024 October to December 2024 2024 July to September 2024
There are protests against the Morena Party and left-wing The CJNG organised crime Political leaders hold general A newly-elected administration Right-wing extremists mount an
candidacy of Donald Trump candidate Claudia Sheinbaum group expands its fraud and elections by the end of the year, launches a prolonged and armed attack against the federal
after he wins the Republican win the 2024 presidential commercial theft operations improving the security outlook. countrywide security campaign court in Washington DC, for
presidential nomination. election in Mexico. to compensate for the impact against the CJNG and other example after a Donald Trump
of security operations against major gangs. conviction.
fentanyl production.
172 173
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in North America & the Caribbean Countries to watch
174 175
Regional Analysis
LATIN Authoritarianism
AMERICA Neutrality
Migration
Image: Getty Images (Handout / Presidencia El Salvador)
176 177
1
Authoritarianism
In an effort to combat crime, leaders across the region are
likely to resort to authoritarian policies, such as restricting
3
Organised crime
Mexican cartels will probably scale up their transnational
operations to control the main drug-trafficking corridors in Latin
movement and some civil rights, at short notice. Most America. They will do so by arming local gangs as they fight their
emergency restriction measures are likely to only last a few rivals over the control of production and distribution routes. This
months. But some governments have shown reluctance would be likely to intensify organised crime risks in port cities,
to remove them once in place, for example in El Salvador, such as Barranquilla (Colombia), Guayaquil (Ecuador) and Limon
Honduras and Peru. This is likely to contribute to an uncertain (Costa Rica). These are key locations for cocaine trafficking from
regulatory environment for foreign companies, and gradually production countries towards Mexico
undermine democratic institutions in these countries.
2
Geopolitics of neutrality
Most countries in Latin America are likely to remain neutral
on major global geopolitical issues throughout 2024. Those
include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China-Taiwan
Most countries in Latin
Coca cultivation
Wait times to
America condemned pass through
tensions. This posture of neutrality is motivated by some of El Salvador has in Colombia has
the Russian invasion the Panama
the region’s left-wing governments’ aim of sustaining trade imprisoned 1.6% increased by
ties with China while maintaining ties with the US. This trend of Ukraine, but none Canal averaged
of its population 1 13% from 2021
will most probably be evident in major regional economies have delivered military nine days in
to 2022 3
such as Brazil and Colombia. Most countries in Latin America aid to Ukraine 2 August 2023 4
condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but none have
Sources: 1 Bloomberg L.P, 2 United Nations-Digital Library and Kiel Institute, 3 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNDOC), 4 Reuters, 5 The New York Times Company
delivered military aid to Ukraine.
4
Drought-driven supply
chain disruptions
Key supply chain routes in Latin America will
5
Migration drives
security risk
A combination of armed violence, authoritarianism and
probably become increasingly liable to disruption hardship will continue to drive human displacement
in the coming years due to climate change- across the region. In particular, people are likely to
Image:
Getty Images (Luis ACOSTA / AFP) induced droughts. Unpredictable weather keep fleeing Venezuela, Ecuador and Central America.
patterns worsened by an El Nino weather Consequences include a worsening of the security
event are likely to sustain a severe risk of water situation and delays at border crossings in Colombia
In 2022, nearly 250,000 people shortages during the hottest months. Key and Panama. It will also add to popular pressure on
crossed the Darien Gap logistical routes such as the Panama Canal and governments in host countries like Chile, Colombia and
(Colombia-Panama border), an the Magdalena River in Colombia are particularly Panama, where the arrival of displaced people has been
annual record. That number liable to be affected. accompanied by worsening hardship and heightened
criminality in urban areas.
rose to 380,000 as of
Image: Getty Images (Luis ACOSTA / AFP) 18 September 2023 5
400,000
350,000
380,000
Inflationary pressures driven 300,000
250,000
by global supply chain disruptions 200,000

150,000
250,000
and extreme weather events will

100,000
50,000
Image: Getty Images (Gerardo MENOSCAL / AFP) 0
sustain insecurity across the region. 2022 2023
178 179
Forecasts
4 5 6
Hyperinflation Bombing campaign Lockdowns in Ecuador
in Argentina in Ecuador
More than even chance More than even chance Less than even chance
2024 2024 2024
4 Economic reforms implemented Bystanders are killed in The incoming Ecuadorian
by the incoming Argentinian retaliatory attacks against government limits public
10 government accelerate the the Ecuadorian authorities by movements in major cities
11 3 devaluation of the local currency organised criminal groups. for a few months as part of an
6
12 with negative implications for operation to curb gang violence.
7 5 social and political stability.
13 8
9 7 8 9
14 1
2 Bombings in Impeachment in El Salvador becomes
Colombia Colombia a dictatorship
15 Unlikely Unlikely
Less than even chance
2024 2024 February to March 2024
Peace talks collapse, leading President Gustavo Petro in President Nayib Bukele shuts
armed groups to mount bombing Colombia is impeached, leading down the El Salvador legislature
campaigns against security forces to large and potentially violent after winning a landslide at the
in Bogota and other major cities. protests by his supporters. February general elections.
Climatic and Critical Guatemala president Unrest in Pro-Bolsonaro rallies
Civil Unrest Corruption Tectonic Risks Crisis Risk Infrastructure removed from office Peru in Brazil
Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely
Infectious Infrastructure Overland 2024 2024 2024
General crime Governance Risk
Diseases Risk Travel President Bernardo Arevalo of Supporters of former president
Anti-government activists
Guatemala is removed from mount a countrywide Jair Bolsonaro hold large,
Organised Crime Regulatory Security & State Terrorism office by the judiciary. campaign of protests and violent protests countrywide, for
Aspects Safety Risk Agencies Risk roadblocks. example if he is arrested.
13 14 15
1 2 3
Chile expropriates Anti-gang campaign in Regime change
Hardship protests in Panama Canal El Nino travel lithium assets Venezuela in Venezuela
Argentina restrictions disruption Unlikely Very Unlikely Extremely unlikely
Very likely Very likely Likely 2024 2024 July to December 2024
2024 2024 2024 President Gabriel Boric President Maduro launches An opposition candidate wins
There are protests in Buenos The Panama Canal Authority An El Nino event leads to nationalises lithium production, anti-gang operations throughout the 2024 presidential elections,
Aires against economic reforms retains strict restrictions on extreme weather affecting leading foreign mining Venezuela that significantly triggering a political transition
during the course of which vessels in 2024, leading global regional travel networks. companies to leave Chile. weaken the power of organised in Venezuela.
incidents of violence and looting shippers to divert vessels. criminal groups there
occur.
180 181
Risk Trajectories
Key risks in Latin America Countries to watch
182 183
Methodology
Effect
The effect metric indicates the degree of positive or negative strategic impact
that we anticipate a forecast will have on the wider risk environment, and
Dragonfly’s forecasts draw upon a mixture of the degree to which the realised scenario would precipitate changes to
data analysis and all-source intelligence, political the outlook. Terms used to describe the scale of consequences range from
science, and threat and risk assessments. But the negligible to profound in either positive OR negative terms.
final call always rests on a qualitative estimative
judgement. Our analysts are regional and thematic
specialists; our approach is collaborative and
emphasises creative thinking, rigorous peer review
Negligible Low Moderate Substantial Immense Profound
and challenge.
Before writing the Strategic Outlook, we speak with

our global source network, identify and reconsider Threat and Risk Levels
our assumptions, look back at what we have Dragonfly uses a six-point system for its threat, risk, hazard and vulnerability
previously forecast, and consider the questions or levels. Our levels range from negligible (1) to critical/extreme (6). We
issues that our clients have been asking us about. maintain more than 18,000 individual ratings across our risk typologies,
We also draw on open-source research and conduct covering more than 200 countries and territories, and more than 700 cities
targeted intelligence-gathering. We aim to present globally. The full range suite of risk levels, and comprehensive methodology
our forecasts in plain English, using visualisations for each risk typology and risk level, are available to SIAS users.
to aid understanding and communicate insight in
more engaging ways.
1 2 3 4 5 6
Negligible Low Moderate High Severe Critical
Forecasting Ranges Probabilistic Terms

The Strategic Outlook primarily covers the coming year but this year we place Intelligence informs decisions, often about the future or uncertain
a greater emphasis on the issues, risks and trends that we assess are liable situations where there are few hard facts. We use a scale of measured
to run beyond 2024 and impact longer-term planning. We are specific when probabilistic terms to convey assessments. The strength of the likelihood
we can be and when we cannot we use defined terms that capture time- terms reflects our confidence in these assessments, based on the quality of
frames and horizons. information and other factors. Such terms do not indicate fact, certainty,
proof or knowledge, but reasoned judgements.
184 185
About Strategic Outlook

Strategic Outlook is Dragonfly’s annual strategic intelligence estimate for those whose decisions
hinge upon an understanding of emerging geopolitical and strategic security risks. Its primary Dragonfly was the only one that called a warning of an
focus is strategic early warning, by providing an expansive set of assessments on geopolitical
dynamics, global security threats, and the potential for crises and political, economic and social invasion of Ukraine [in Strategic Outlook 2022].
instability in 2024 and beyond. - Director of security at an international airline
Leader Global Events Calendar

The leader is our headline assessment and sets out the themes and driving This section provides an overview of key dates to watch in terms of risk in
forces we identify throughout Strategic Outlook that we anticipate will define 2024. Many are specific monitoring points to help readers track whether our
geopolitical and strategic security risks in the coming years. It is intended forecasts in Strategic Outlook 2024 are on their way to realisation, or taking a
to serve as a conceptual and contextual lens that frames our thinking and different trajectory. Some are specific dates for security or crisis managers to
enables readers to interpret and anticipate the causes and impacts of future watch, such as potential political or security flashpoints, key anniversaries,
risks even beyond those we specifically forecast. weather or storm seasons, and major summits or diplomatic events.
Top Five Global Trends Top Five Risk Drivers

Building on the themes set out in the leader, we provide analysis of the top five For each region, we highlight the top five issues or trends that we assess will
global trends that will drive change and risk and determine global resilience shape risks in that region in the year ahead and beyond. These are intended to
within the international order over the next few years. The impacts and help readers with a more specific regional focus determine whether specific
regional variations and dynamics of these trends are explored further in the risks or crises are on their way to realisation or taking a different trajectory.
regional analysis sections of the Strategic Outlook. Some issues that we flag aim to challenge assumptions and biases, and present
ideas for crisis planning and reduce the risk of surprise.
Scenarios Forecasts
We have developed scenarios for ten pertinent geopolitical and security In this section, we convey 15 specific concise forecasts and aim to capture
issues. The scenarios illustrate our assessments of how each of these issues potential higher-impact scenarios that would shape risks and result in
and related flashpoints could play out in the coming year, with timeframes, changes in 2024 and beyond. Each forecast is assigned ratings for its assessed
likelihoods and consequences attached to each scenario. In order to allow probability and the consequence (both positive and negative) that the scenario
clients to monitor developments and anticipate future risk, each scenario is would have on the wider risk environment. To reduce the potential for strategic
accompanied by indicators to watch out for, the occurrence of which would surprise, challenge assumptions and present ideas for crisis planning, we
suggest that this scenario is becoming more or less likely. capture important and probable scenarios as well as low-probability but high-
impact outlier events.
Resilience Perceptions Survey Risk Trajectories

For Strategic Outlook 2024 we have included our first Resilience Perceptions Survey, For each region, we provide a summary overview of the key risks and countries
providing insightful peer benchmarking information on the state of global to watch in 2024. These cover a range of our security, stability and crisis risk
resilience. The survey was completed in August 2023 by corporate security and areas, such as regime instability, conflict, cyber and terrorism. The annual
crisis risk management professionals representing more than 20 sectors, and outlook trends chart shows our net forecast on whether the risk outlook is
is intended to inform those with building resilience in their organisations to improving, remaining broadly consistent, or worsening, as well as showing
address the risks they face in the years ahead. changes in our assessed trajectory ratings from 2016-2024.
186 187
About us
Dragonfly is a geopolitical and security intelligence service

used and trusted by leading professionals of the world’s most
impactful organisations.
From the highest-risk environments to the boardroom, Dragonfly enables its clients to
make confident decisions and puts them ahead of risks to achieve their goals. We craft
intelligence that is all-source, corroborated, analysed, filtered and vividly presented to
give our clients the confidence to advance their agendas, plan with precision and sustain
their competitive advantage.
Dragonfly is a part of FiscalNote’s Global Intelligence division.
Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS)

TerrorismTracker
SIAS is Dragonfly’s core product and is a strategic, operational and tactical
intelligence service used by many of the world’s leading businesses, TerrorismTracker is our market-leading proprietary terrorism events
international organisations, NGOs and public bodies as their essential database, delivered on our platform and through an API. We record every
security intelligence solution. terrorist incident and plot reported in open sources since January 2007.
Updated daily, incidents and plots are geolocated, summarised, and indexed
SIAS provides bespoke, forward-looking and actionable all-source security by 17 different categories for rapid and up-to-date research and structured
intelligence, including in-depth assessments, risk modelling and analytics. analysis.
Delivered through a platform, mobile app, email and by API, our service is
optimised to ensure that SIAS intelligence and data can seamlessly integrate
into our clients’ workflows and systems.
Protective Intelligence
Dragonfly’s Protective Intelligence service monitors, identifies, analyses
Embedded Intelligence and assesses threats on your behalf, particularly when those threats are
highly specific to your organisation.
Dragonfly brings two decades of experience in helping corporate security teams
perform at their best by placing intelligence at the heart of their operations. Our Protective Intelligence service informs security planning, mitigation
and operations for a broad range of risks, typically spanning: ongoing
We provide a dedicated capability for security organisations, by embedding our executive protection missions, high-profile events such as AGMs, film and
fully supported specialists. They are able to transform the quality and flow of television productions, festivals, sporting events, exhibitions, conferences
actionable intelligence, enabling security decision-makers to focus resources and high-profile launches.
based upon high-quality assessments that are specific to their strategy.
188 189
About us
Advisory Services
We help security decision-makers evaluate and respond to their threats and
risks, which typically covers three core areas:
Security Risks
We help clients implement bespoke intelligence-based assessments
to protect their people, assets and investments against a wide range of
About FiscalNote
sophisticated adversaries. Combining various intelligence and data sources, Powered by data and AI, analyzed by experts, and enhanced by community,
our analysts and consultants are experts in security threats in challenging FiscalNote's policy and global intelligence solutions help you navigate
environments and the impact on businesses and personnel. rapidly evolving political, corporate and regulatory environments.
Combining technology, data and insights to help you stay ahead of political
Political Risk and business risk.
Our deep knowledge of the global risk landscape enables us to provide you
with clear and actionable insight on risks to your organisation. From global
geopolitical realignment and escalating political risks in volatile countries,
to evolving ESG and regulatory requirements across sectors, we help you
understand the challenges of operating in unfamiliar contexts. Get in touch
Systems and Solutions Contact us today to speak to a specialist:
We enable security leaders to deliver value across the enterprise from project info@dragonflyintelligence.com
teams to the board room, by optimising and transforming their exploitation
of risk data, analytics and intelligence. +44 20 3653 0010
www.dragonflyintelligence.com
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1

Editor-in-chief: Henry Wilkinson

Editors: Hannah Poppy, Joel Gulhane, Pierre-Louis Le Goff

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2024

© 2023 Dragonfly Eye Ltd

Global Events Calendar images:

Strategic Outlook 2024

Global Trends Artificial Intelligence | A Revolution in Human Affairs 18

Regulatory Resilience | Following the AI Innovation Curve 22

West & Central Africa

Societal Resilience | Struggling to Keep Up 26 East & Southern Africa 128

Supply Chain Risks | A Transient State of Resilience 30 North Africa 136

Middle East 144

Scenarios Ukraine War Fallout 34 South Asia 152

Global Economy 40 Asia Pacific 160

Climate Security 46 North America & the Caribbean 168

Great Powers 52 Latin America 176

Geopolitical Fault Lines 58

US Politics 64 About Methodology 184

Middle Powers 70 About Strategic Outlook 2024 186

Emerging Technologies 76 About Dragonfly 188

Resilience Key Findings 95

- Intelligence manager at an international

Strategic Outlook 2024

Leader Geopolitical competition, alongside extreme climatic events, will

Gap We assess that almost a third of countries worldwide have a worsening

Strategic Outlook 2024 | Leader

Strategic competition trumps all The AI revolution

Strategic Outlook 2024 | Leader

That AI technology could give malign actors

The need to regulate this technology is as plain as it is

The Resilience Gap

Top Five Global Trends

Some of the more severe consequences of climate change are already

Disruption to the global economy, societies and ecosystems, brought about

Image: Getty Images (Spyros BAKALIS / AFP)

Top Five Global Trends | Climate Change

Global readiness to improve climate resilience is limited

Image: Getty Images (FilippoBacci)

Sources: Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative; Climate Action Tracker.

Top Five Global Trends

AI is enabling innovations to occur across different sectors. In healthcare,

Image: Getty Images (Wang Zhao / AFP)

Top Five Global Trends | Artificial Intelligence

Risk of digital repression index score

Top Five Global Trends

AI technologies and their applications do not operate in an unregulated vacuum.

Image: Getty Images (Stefani Reynolds / AFP)

Top Five Global Trends | Regulatory Resilience

New rules are no less likely to restrain criminal

Top Five Global Trends

The question of societal resilience is likely to become an ever more urgent

Image: Getty Images (Thierry Monasse / Contributor)

Top Five Risk Driver | Societal Resilience

Impact of major shocks on average

Image: Getty Images (Spencer Platt / Staff)

Average household earnings (USD)

Top Five Global Trends

Supply Chain Risks

Most organisations are still struggling with significant unpredictability

Image: Getty Images (Nikada)

Top Five Global Trends | Supply Chain Risks

Critical minerals production remains highly

Image: Getty Images (Kevin Frayer / Stringer)