METRO CEBU EARTHQUAKE A Probabilistic Seismic Ground Motion Hazard Assessment of Metro CebuDynamic Metro Cebu Philippine Copyright © 2018 Published by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology — Department of Science and Technology (PHIVOLCS ~ DOST) CP. Garcia Ave., U.P. Campus, Diliman, Quezon City ISBN: 978-971-92395-2-9 ‘Any part of this document may be used and reproduced as presented provided proper acknowledgement is made. For inquiries, please contact: Department of Science and Technology Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PHIVOLCS Building, C.P. Garcia Avenue, U.P. Campus Diliman, Quezon City 1101 Tel. Nos.: +63 2 426-1468 to 79 / +63 32 340-2951 Fax No.: +63 2 929-8366 Metro Cebu Earthquake Model [A product of PHIVOLCS under the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Philippines Project PRINTED June 2018METRO CEBU EARTHQUAKE MODEL A Probabilistic Seismic Ground Motion Hazard Assessment of Metro Cebu Dost PHIVOLCS: Department of Science and Technology PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGYWe SS UN GS Repub abe Pa DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ‘OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY Taguig City ‘Dost Cangretumton othe Piipsne Instat of Vocal an Selimaogy Department of Scene and Technology (PAIVOLCS 051) for your ecextonin the deepen and pueaton he Metro eb Ergun Masel CEM) As, ‘This publation Is 2 sgnieantadton tothe pol of disaster mitgaton apd sk reduction tools accessible to government autores, ‘akshldere andthe peer publ epeciy othe Meh srsansed Mtr abu The mater may be ure toward nctesing our tanh baling cothquake safe sturtures a faces and ante reson? communis. May te knowl an norman contained inthe MCEM Als bea al salon responding and overcoming the ste halnges 2thand hs, ensvingncsv row and susan evelopment for lo our communities atone 0st DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY Quezon City Pavoues Ie la with great plate presenti ester ek reducon produc, Metro Cebu Earthquake Medel As, made pose by the callie sions tough years of aden cbznation nd eeareh of the egies, gels, somali, pst, and mathematics of he Ptpin stitute of Volaology and Sesology~Departnet of skence ana Teccloy [PHNOLCS OST) consultation wth the oa {vernmen unt (U's) ennaering commu, he eae the urban planer he aster managers ard the surance sy. ‘dbereac othe gael platorm in sec hand and rk assent. Thi ls stespaccormaton may be ved steerer in he fell deen of nom bulngs and haste, or ret of ensing Buling, or me an urban planning, fr earthquake rk Ssrerment or damage mitgation ar for ek reduion. We fem hop tht hs tl wll ted by al stakeoler arn mga 00 for deduon-maing nd stengthenng te resency of ou commutes. : Undersecretary frases Reduction and nate Change, DOST end Otc charge, POLES OOST Rapti oe Popes OFFICE OF THE REGIONAL DIRECTOR Cebu City Dost Nolan ne Stay (PHVOLES| fore a workin evel racing he et Cab ate Mode! The les ‘ery ae to tela everest uns nthe preston nd upsting of he respecte Carrenesve and Use Pus ts Wu 9 "Senteant cal tail mate cur skehodes swareon earthquake eater meson and reeuton tors lve ht th wal takes sgnzart an slong impact on ay bes egecahae Mts Case You crmement proving he csr te {Gude thet pvt wil the comm ty enc eto ha ‘ain, congatuations forthe excelent eons enn 1. PARADELA Regional Drectr, 05 Region Vi epithe hpi DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS AND HIGHWAYS REGIONAL OFFICE Vit ‘OFFICE OF THE REGIONAL DIRECTOR ‘Cebu City evs me eat plesur to eted ny sncere congratulation othe Phikpin ute of Vena and Seong (PHVOLCS] which a ‘ene othe pub, tet prodced hs Ales that il defintely be wel to Filipino Ege desig cota eset bugs, Fist eduction managemert efforts a a5 2 tol fo lan use ané urban olnnig of Local Government Units {LGU} 1 woul ao the 10 $eknonloge the colecve efforts of the eto Cebu Stakeholders, many the 13 1GU' tht compre Metro Cat, the buses eco, he eater, the urton planners the duaser managers ato te conmmnty a wel forthe alot sport t th projec beng rar oo a. Regional rector, OPW Region VIa We SS NG eS PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT OF CEBU OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR ‘Cxbu Clty (on bot ofthe Cebuano, et mo express or grate anc congratulations to the dedeted pub srvars nthe Pie inet of ‘Vocanloy nd Serology [PHVOLES) tnd aa to Meto Cebu salchalers who conruted moe than whet equred t Seog nd porary eb A Dap oy co less he Pipa tut of Voleaology an Sesmology aes wl avibe cary COvEsONIENTOR CEBU OFFICE OF THE MAYOR Cob woul ete recognize an congratuate the Pipi state of Vecangy and Seismology (PIVOLS or hei ene ptonl effort ae ‘armen nprogung ths Met Cebu Eathauate Medel Ms that would Deel aricul ee suc desis, the uaa planes, ‘he deat managers and mos especialy the ener able. Th wi pave the way forthe development and improvement of crank "eesmert andenringateresileny oot of the hghly urbane er of Met Ce Inbeha of cebu Cy, my Best wes for comtnued aces, shared resposibty ad muta eneto al stakeeler 2 ie, perce Regu a te Pity (CITY GOVERNMENT OF LAPU-LAPU ‘OFFICE OF THE MAYOR Tap lp Ce Warmest congratutions tthe pool of experts ofthe Pippine Insite of Volley and Scmclgy Department of Scenes and Technolgy PHIVOLS-DOST] a the sues developmen ond pubcaton the Mer Cebu Earthquake Model Alls. ‘hs At sone prtulraasor and ie eduction manager (ORRM) to! which spec indeates the ot probable earth und shaking seneraton values tha ar fundamental ried starts design sft and ak szeimert. The Mghy baied eet he local gvernment unis Weve Cebu may eae ths rast elrencs for pls poate ees conmunty earthquake May he knowade nd wom comp inthe iy nd lube tool ng ur Carre bung cfr date rent nd cleat. cane doi cima tron Roe Me Ct ‘nee aes, CONGRATULATIONS AND BEST WISHES apt aps Cty Repaic of he Pipie (CITY GOVERNMENT OF MANDAUE OFFICE OF THE MAYOR “Mande City 1 would he to recognise and cangrtlte the Phin Intute of Vokanlay and Stsmstgy (PHVOLCS fr ter exception fort and comment in proc ths Mer Cebu Earthquake Mode Als hal woul ene particule stuctrldesgne's the ban anes, the aster mangers and mes especialy te general pub. ‘ne pre ie italy paving te way forthe development and improvement caer assesment nd arte renter efor of ‘he gly utanied es of Maro Cebu. Cansequert ths wi elforce the stand cnfence af eveyeoy sey look forward a2 relable ron for safe nd Sere enveorant In beta of Mande Cy, my bes wes for antiund ucces all forts in sharing responeoy to provide mut Benes fra Sokehlders Te Cy snerel ete ts fl suport PHIVOLS mal eit fate enero oN. casmet UfR qUisuMBING Major Aedsue cyTABLE OF CONTENTS SSS aS Metro Cebu Earthquake Model. 1 I, Seismicty Map ofthe Province of Cebu and Vicinity (Historical and Instrumental) nu nsnninnnnnnin 2 1 Seismicity Map ofthe Province of Cebu and Vicinity (MCEM Database). 3 IV. Distribution of Active Faults in Region Vi A ‘ \V._ Metropolitan Cebu Vs30 Site Model Map . Seer Sat 5 VL. Peak Ground Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu S00-Year Return Period on Vs20 Site Model 6 VIL Spectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu SA (0.2 seconds) at S00-Year Return Period 2 7 Vi. Spectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu SA (1.0 second) at S00-Year Return Period 8 1 Spectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu SA (2.0 seconds) at 500-Year Return Period 9 X Peak Ground Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu 2,500-Year Return Period on ROCK SRE orn 20 Xi. Spectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu SA (0.2 seconds) at 2500-Year Return Period on ROCKSRE ven. ML iL Spectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu SA (1.0 second) at 2,500-Year Return Period on Rock Site. 2Metro Cebu Earthquake Model ‘Te Metro Cebu Earthquake Medel (MCEM) a detiled probabilistic horizontal ground motion hazard estimate special modelled for Metro Cebu. san integration of hazard estimates considering combined uncertainies in magnitude, dtarce an intensity measure of al knowa earthquake souees within 300 kn ‘aus. he Pilppne iste of Volcanology and Seismoogy (PHIVOLCS) produced thi ste specie prbablistic hazard assessment of Metro Cebu so that, wth prudence, may be used 35 reference in promoting aherence fo the minum design requirements in buling stuctures and in cacueting for he design base {hear stipulate inthe National Strctural Code af the Priippines (NSCB) a referral cae ofthe National Buin Code, (NBC), I may ao be wed tol or ‘earthquake preparedness, disaster mitigation and sk reduction eons of local government uns, relevant government authodtes, urban planners, developers, homeowners andby the insurance ndusty. Inputs From the 179 hstorl_snd_ instrumentally recorded ‘earthquake events of the Philpine Earthquake Model (PEM) (PHIVOLCS, 2017), 296 earthquake events of moment magnitude equal or greater than ‘M52 were located vethin 200 kr rads from Metro Ce 175 ofthese ‘events were inthe ange of Mw5.2 5.8, 108 events between Mw53 ~ 70 ted 13 events had moment magnitude greater than Mw.0. Tis dotabase, {ogetherulth the current information on 57 Active Faults, 3 Trenches, 9 ea Seurce Zones (PHIVOLCS, 2017} and Global Postining System (GPS) ground {eformation monitoring resus (83oleol etal, 2012} nthe vc of Metro cebu, dlineoted the Boundaries ond parameters of the indus seismic source zone. The Ground Motion Prediction Modse (GMPME) used to ‘characterize the source t-te seismic wae attenuation (Bona, tal, 2017) ‘were Chiou nd Youngs (2018), Abrahamson etal (2014) and Campbell ana Bozorgie (2014 for ative felts and are sources wile Atsison and Boore (2003) and Youngs et al 1997) were used for al thee trench souree zones [Penaruba et a, 2017). The average shear wave velocity ofthe upper 30, meter of soll iyer (Vs30) of Metro. Cet derived from technical Investgotion(Grtas etal, 2018) using etraction microtremor and slope ‘orelation of Inerferometric Syatete-Apetre Radar (USAR) date (Wald ‘and Alen, 2007) (allen and Wald, 2003) (Bautta, BC. May 11, 2018, personal communication) was ued in determining site reponse forthe SOO. ‘ea return perog ground motion hararé maps (PeRarbio ea, 201) Rok ‘ike mde, V30=760m/sec, was Used for the 2500-ea" elu period maps Loge tees were ullzed to accommodate for uncertainties Inthe source model parameters and GMPM apples, {aleulation Program The opensource seismic hard analysis software, ‘Openduake (00) Engine version 30 developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), modelled the probabilistic maximum horizontal ground accelerations (Weatherll, 2012; GEM, 2017) and visualized in GIS (QGIS Development Fam, 2009) Modeling Resuts Pook grouné acceleration (@GA) and Spectral ‘Acceleration (5) maps on oc ste (VS30=760n/se) and on V0 site model for Metio Cebu at 2% and 10% probabity of exceedances (Pal), References (80 ata sw uae ‘Stee mu nrc spectively, comprised this Alas. Indeated accelerations suggest 2 90% ‘robabity of nonexceedance but may be exceeded at lest one within its ‘elu period Assumptions For the havard map cautions, the shear wave eotty of 1.0 km/sec. and 2.5 km/s. were assumed at 300m art 2km ope, respectively (Crast.)(Grtas eta, 201) Dip anes were assumed 3845 degrees south as ofthe Cental Cebu Fault System. Untations ‘These ground mation hard maps were eaelaed ‘tom the Philppne Earthquake Model (PM) dorobase, calculated actiity tes, ereo sourees, ctv fults and trenches perametes, GPS monitoring ‘resus, 250:m regionl grid spacing around motion prediction models, ste ‘model, and loge trees. ay sgniicant development and updete in any of ‘thes inputs may alter the hazard outcome. The nated aceleratin values Inal hazard mags ae ground response and do not include the influence of ‘onsite structures and ste developments. The eave shallow ¥s30 ste ‘model i sensitive ta shoct-perd response (I ¢Isee) and therelore most ‘eel for near-source effect and inthe seismic design and performance of lows structures. Fr very tick underying sft sal layer or basin and in Ise), 2 ste Specfe geotechnical ivestiation 1s recommended to accommodate for long-period response. Considering uncertainties, this Atlas isnot absolute and users are encouraged to exercise caution and Sound judgment an to onslt the authors for guidance an insights Data nd Resources Seismicity dat, active faults and wrenches were derive frm the Philippine Earthquake Model PEM, Phiippine Institute of Volcanology ang Sesmooay = "Department of Seence and Technology (PHVOLCS DST) (oupyfanmephvoks dostgouph, lst accessed June 201). Base map is atonal Mapping and. Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) Interferometric Stet Aportare Radar-Digtal Terain Modo SAR), 2013. Administratwe boundaries and road network are adopted fom Philp Gis ata, 2011 (tp: Jane pigs, ast acess une 2018). ‘SK ratio asa ny ta 228 leet our Maen Pret ann AEE 1 Nak Gn ten Hr ee Hl coer PAP, Don Attn Rg Sete + Ghana hp "Uae tne Chov og Nh mad fener cipaen ek emote rego nh 0 ne + Eid te bl eit 1087 ami igen ert ano of ae tr el, Pa nem nium an ge A= are Yr a gan rad nd oa ene so Meet ‘hen beg on Rn GOT eb eo ane ante Pan ceo eA ator Ceo Gn hy A 69 ‘haere tascam} 27 he Felpre cone Mos UR ee mesh ween ‘he, Sa Mone KO "eg eaten Aten on nse, Sega Reeth es le ———— Oety Map of the Province of Cebu and (Historical and Instrumental)Seismicity Map of the Province of Cebu and Vicinity (MCEM Database) " 0,[eel Role Nelo R A) Region VII % z i ie q IE Z é Sao powor sea caniginPeak Ground Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu Se ea un ee Non errSpectral Acceleration Map of bee el Cebu NOPD a Cm oe wowSpectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu WOR Ree moc) esha - xSpectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu ROAR ee ell a me eles me ee . LE a Te aPeak Ground Acceleration Map of Metr 500-Year Return Period on Rockpectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu (Te ole Regn oleae ondSpectral Acceleration Map of Metropolitan Cebu SA (1.0 second) at 2,500-Year Return Period on Rock ae06 July 2017 Magnitude 6.5 = Leyte Earthquake 10 February 2017 Magnitude 6.7 Surigao Del Norte Earthquake 15 October 2013 Magnitude 7.2 Bohol Earthquake 06 February 2012 Magnitude 6.9 Negros Oriental EarthquakeCe ee an aaa er Re U ET ekg eT Ra koe Tet neces Puen Son eee aE Peete) Cece