Chuong 2 PHEP TINH XAC SUAT Gidi thiéu 2.1 Khong gian mau va bién cé Khong gian mau cia mét phép thi Mot phép thifli mot hinh déng hay mot qué trink- ma cho két qué mot céch ngdin uhien Dinh nghia 2.1.1. Khong gian mau cia mot phop thit la tip hop tat eA eae ket uv c6 thé xay ra etia phép Unit thong thuting dude ky hiew lk 0,8, Vi dy 2.1 Mot phép tht dun ¢ tung mot dong xu thi chi c6 hai khé nang xy ra la saat bien mat sip JF hoe me in nhat la ehi cho két qua co hai két qua, Chéing han, ngtia T. Khi do, ta c6 khong gian mw eita phép thir tung ding ww lk Q— (HP) Mot trddng hop khaée trong thye té 1a gidi tinh eha mot Ué so sinh ma c6 khong in IA — {MF}. 2 New ta tung déng xu ba ian» Vidu mot két qué eta ed ba Lan tung la diy ff hoe 7. Vi the HHP ATTY TH PEE n va ghi lai ede két qua xiiy ra etia: mdi Kin th {HH MATT. Vi dy 2.3 Gico hai ron xtie xe (6 mat) dong thei thi taco 36 kha nang sy v khong sian miu la Q- {Gi wij 18} Dinh nght . Mot bién €6 I mot tap hyp eta mot $6 két quid ong khong sian min Q. Mot bien e6 dan néu no ichita mot két qui va mot bien c6 kép néu no chia ubiéa hon mot ket qua 6XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 7 ‘Vi du 2.4 Net mot php thit vé viee chayén lngng eta ba phacng tien giao thong, tal mot nga ba, nghia Ka xe 96.18 «rai (2) hovie phai (2) tal ng’ ba, Khong glam min om 8 Lncong hop {LLL LER LRLLRR REL. RLR. BL i} Do do, ta c6 duge § bién e6 dun va mot sb bién e6 kép, chiding ham V [BLL LBL ALA} {hién eé chi mot xe 0® pai} BH {LLL ALL LRE, LER) — {hién e6 nbiéw nit mot xe 12 phai} C= {LLL BRP} — {hién 06 ci 3 xe 1 cing hung} Vi du 2.5 Tidp tue vi du 2.1, ta e636 bién cd don By (11 E 6.6). VE chy mot 86 bien ef kép bidn 6 2 xtie sae suit hie VS {12.21 (8.3). 4D) (6.6) { { BO ULS M2 } {bien 6 ti nat bang 4}. Méi quan hé ciia ly thuyét tap hop Dinh nghia 2.1.3. i) Phin bir eia bién e6 A, ki bien A’ la tap b kot qua sian odin 2 ma khong chita trong bien eb A, ii) Hup eta hai bién co Ava 2. ki biéa AUB. doe La "A hese 2" la bién eG clita tt e& cae bién e6 eta A hoae cia By hoge dong thoi eda ed 2 bién ed, (nghia la chi can it nhat mot bié e6 say ra.) iii) Giao eta hai bién co Ava B. kt hiéu ACB, doe la "Ava BY, a bien co chita tt cd ede két qui cita ed 2 bién ef Ava B, iv) Biéu 66 rong, ki hin fi 1a bién e6 khong elvta ket qua naw cia phép thi Khi 19 8 Oth ta got Ava BB hai bién c4 1 nha Vi dy 2.6 Tidy tue vidi 2.1, tacocae didn edsan A= (1234 B= (1.5.6). € {135}. D— {6}. Khi dé, Trang 7XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trae 8 Cac tién dé va tinh chat cia xdc sudt Cho mgt phép dit vi mot khéng gian min ne tng O, se suat eka mot bién 6 Ala do do ehinh wae kha nang say ra etta bien 66 A do, Tien dé 2.2.1. f Tink khdng am: PA) > 0, voi bién 6 A bat F 2. Tinh cong tinh: Nou A vii B li hai bien 06 vai PEA B) = PCA) + PUB). Hoo. thé nia, néw Ay A. be tap bap 0 PLAYA Ag 3. Tink chudn héaz 9) 1. Ménh dé 2.2.2. 0 1 Pi) 0. 1 ¢ ened A bat bi, PAY) PLM a PEA wt bien co ALB va C hat Bi PAB) PEA)» PUB) — PLA PAU BUCS PO» POB) + PIC) = PLA B) = PLAC) BNC) PAN BAO. Vi du 2.7 Trong mot thi tran, a) hy ty A, S04 ho, ho gia dinh si dink st dung dieh vu Internet etia cong a dink sit dyng dich vy teuyen bin cap efing eta eome ty A, va S00 ng cd hai dieh vy nay. Chon ngdu nhién mot ho gia ella cong dinh, tinh sae suat dé ho gia dink may sit dw at mot dich vy eta cong ty A Va Nae suat dé ho wia efinke nay chi sif dumgs duy what mot doai dich vu? Dat A~ {sit dung Internet} va B= {sie dung travén inh cap}, ta 6 PEAY 1.6, PER) O8va PUAN BY 05. Trang 8XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG _____Thang 8 Khi de. P(biéu cb sie dung i nhar mgt loai dich vu) PAU BY PEA)» PLB)= PAB) 06 08=0.5 09, Pisit dung ei mot dich vw PAU BY = PAC BY 09-05 tet Dinh nghia 2.2.3. Néa mot khong pian maa co 1 két quid e6 thé sy ra mbit naw (ghia la mdi bid c6 dun co sae suit obit nhaw) thi xée suit ena mot bien cb A Lat kiss ra diye cho boi S6 huynge KOU qu’ chika trong A (el) " 7 PEAY Vi dy 2.8 Nam c6 6 sieh tidy thuyét va 6 sach khoa hoe gid tuding clita dye. Ba quyén sach dau tién cha mdi loai a séel bia eiéng v3 sdeh edn lai la bia mem, Nam) chon ngiin nhien mot sich tiéw thnyét v8 mot sich khoa hoe gid tung mang di da lich. Tinh site suat Nami chon diese ef hai sett bia mém? Gia sit ta dainh sé L,....Gchon seh tiéu thuyét va tung tarche sach Khoa hoc gid tung, Khi do, ta 66.36 kd nang chon dage hai qnyén sich vai xae sudit nhurmhan. VA sO edich chon duge hai sich bia mém kv9 edeb nhac san {11.15}. 6). (5, 1).(5.5) 6) (6 4.6.5), (6.0)). Vay xe sudit etia bitn e6 “chow hai sich bia mon [a nly 9 ra 2.3 Gidi tich t6 hep Meénh dé 2.3.1. Quy tde nhan: Cid sit fa od mot tap hop 66 thit be gine c6 chon cho phin tit ditw ten: wii mdi eich chow come moi eich chon phin ii ta lai e6 my edeh chow phin bit thit k. Do dé e6 myn... each chon k Vi dy 2.9 Mot nguai chi nha you chu eang cap dich vu dién va nude. C612 don vi dich vu vé nude va 9 don vi vé dién, Héi e6 bao nbicu edich dé ngitsi ebti nha chon dich vy dién va nude? C612 cach chon dich vu ve mude va vi mdi cael chon dich vu ve nude thi myesi chit nha gi e6 9 cach chon dich va ni Vithé nguti cba nha e6 129 108 each Trang 9XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG BUNG Thang 10 Dinh nghia 2.3.2. Gia sit ta x6v eich chow k phin ni tit mt tap hop co w phin tir khae nbau, New thie tw chon ha e6 ké dén thi eéeh ehon lita nay go! Ia mgt hodn Vis ngude lai néw khong ké dén thie ur chon hia thi ta goi lie mgt t6-hgp, ki hiéu la nc) Gili sit ta e611 phan tit khie nhau, cho #18 mot s6 duong va b< 7, Ta dém sé each khée nhau tit vige chon A phan vit tir tap hap n phan titva sip xép thank mot day, nghia 1a 6 Ingng day cita & phan tit phan biet. Khi do, ta eé 1 efeh ebon phan tirdan tien, Vii eich chon phan tirdan tien, tachi eon »— 1 edel chon phin tr thit hai, viv... Khi ta chon phan tit thit thi ta da chon dive &— 1 phin tit, vi thé ta sion — (= L) ede chon phan vir eudi eimg. Do do, theo quy Wie nban, s6 eng cic day e6 thé siy ra mA ta got fa Ahodn vi hay cbn gol lk ehinh hgp chap k eta nD nin 1)... nln—l)..(n—k 4A Dae biet, khi #1, s6 heung day e6 thé ma ta goi I hoa vj la ne(n—V(n—2)...21 ond DE dem $6 lone 16 hyp, ta cht ¢ rainy vide chon mot A hod vi ehfuh 1a vige chon lan dan tién eta mot t6 hop eda & phan ti va sau dé sip xép lai ching ¢6 Unit ur. Vi the, 1a 66 AY each chon e6 thit ty efia ke phan tit da chon tude vay ta chi ra ring hodin vj bang vi s6 lywng eta té hyp nhan vi Ml. Do do, s6 nang (i) Vi du 2.10 Co midi tru ging dé chim thi cho mon gid tieh tai mot trudmy dai sé Intgng eta ita t6 hap 1A hye. Bai Kiem tra dau tién e6 bén eau hoi va gid sie mndn chon try gidng khae nhau chain didi cho timg can hoi (mdi tg giding chi cham mot cau hot). Hoi 66 bao ubien edch chon Uy giding dé elim thi $6 véeh chow Ii 86 Inouy eta -Hhoan vi cia tap hop 10 phin uit Ws ape He. Trang 10XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang LL Vi dy 2.11 Mot danh sach bai hat trong iPod thi chita 100 bai hat va e6 10 bai hat ctia nhom Beatle, Gia sit danh sich nhac nay phat ngiu nhién, Tinh sac swat dé bai hat efi nhom Beatle xndt bién 6 lan iPod phat ra bai hat tit naan? Dé bai hat cia nhom Beatle wnat hien Glan thie nam thi bon kin dan khong Ai hat cita nhOm Beatle, Do dé, sé cach dé xuit hién bai hit cia uliom 10 V8 Ki 1a 100-99 98-97-96. Vi thé, ta eG sie sudit swat big bai hat ea nhom Beatle sawit bien Beatle Lan thi nan 1 90+89+88+8 eich suat bien nam bai hat bie G6 lin thit 3 Ia 90-80-8887 10 106+ Vi du 2.42 Xép ehd cho 3 sinh view Khoa Khoa hoe Ung dung, 6 sinh vien Khoa Kinh 1 va 8 sinh vien Khoa Dig Dign tit theo mot hang Tinh xae sui ésinh vién nie cing khoa ding canh nhau, Xép ehé cho 17 sinh vien e6 Teach, Goi A bién e6 khong €6 sinh view nao eiun Khoa dim canl nbaw ‘Truong hgp 1: Khony e sin Kho KHUD vi Khow Kink té hau thi § sink vien khoa Dien Dign cit diag xen ké 9 sinh vien hai khoa edn lai ny Siu! é ding ca uw thi sé Trung hop 2: Co sinh view Khow KHUD wa Khiow Kin chi cé 1 cap sinh vién thude 2 khoa nay dig eanh nhau. C6 6.8 cach chon 2 sink view thnde 2 khoa nay, di chi cho sink vien e6 2 eteh: sau d6 2 sinh vien iy cing 7 sink vién con lai etia 2 khoa UD va KT ditng xen ke vdi 8 sinh vién Khoa D-DT dtmy xen ké 66 SS! cach. ry G81! Nyom tn Via _ SWF MiSLS! Do do ray St Trang 1XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 12 4 Xac suat c6 diéu kién Dinh nghia 2.4.1. Cho trucie hai bién e6 1 va B sao cho PUR) > 0. Khi do, xae ra tride diye xée dink boi suat cia bién eb Avéi dien kien bién co B oxi PUAN BY PB) PUA) Vv tif thi mham thay ring ¢6 60% mua them thé nbd, 40% mua them sae dar phe du 2.13 Newii ta khao sat nlvimg nguii di mua din thoai Gd mot etta 307 mma eat hai, Chon fi di mana hang bat ki, va oi A fana them bo nha} B- {anna hem sac} C- fmua them ea hai} Khi do, POY O.6.PUB) APLC) ie ta mua sac die THA sh, mguei may phong di xte sudt ngudi nay eng mua th PAQB) 03 PEBY OA PUAIB Nadia fa, trong tt cd nhimg ngudi mua sac dig phdng e6 THY trong s6. dG. mua them thé nbd. Tuonge tat PAB) 08. Geaelthé nbd) — PB)A)— SEE? — 28 Pisaclthé nb A POL a Line ¢ rhs PUB) A PD PBIA) A PUB). Cong thite nhan xde suat: Tir cong thite (2.1), ta eo PLAN B)— PLAIB) PCB) — POBIA)- PLA) Mé rong cho n bien eG Ay, A A), ta 06 PALL Am) — PAD PAA PAA). Pla don) Vi du 2.14 Mot cong ty sin suat may nghe hae eho DVD Om 3 log’ khiie uli 50% Toai 1, 30% loa H. 20% loai HL Comg ey bio himh mot nam cho eae sian phim efit oninh, Qua khdo sat cong ty tha chap duge sé lieu edn bio hanb trong mot nim cho 3 loai sin pham la: 25% eho logi 1, 20% eho lea T va 10% eho loai TIL rang 12XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 153 1. Tinh sae suét nguti mua sin phan loai T phai bao hanb trong nam daw ven? 2. Nawii mua hing ehon giv nbiien mét sin pham tir3 loai sin pham, tinh xée nh? suit sin phim nay phai | 3. Mot ngudi dén bao hanh sin pham, tink xae suit sin phim nay thuge loa no 6 khdi wing whit? 1,2. Goi Ay — {sin phim loai 4 3}. Goi B {sin phim phai bin hanh} Khi do, ta ev PEAY 05. PUL) 0, PU) 0.2, PUB) — 0.25, PEBIA) — 0.2. PUA As} — 0.1 Do do, nguti x am loai L phai bao hank trong nam daw tien [a PEAR) POBJAD PEL) — be YA MOL NgI! mua bat ki moOt trong ba sin pham phai bio hank [a PLB) PUBJAY 1 PEBI A) + PUB| tg) 0.125 0.06. 0.02 — 0.205, Khi do. PLALB ANB rap ae voip LEAL Pou (BY voy LEB PMB PP Cong thie toan phan Cho Ay A 1,18 ho cée bién e6 day di va doi mot rdi nhau, Khi do, vi hién c6 B hat ki, ta e6 PCB) PEBJA PEAY Ft PBL PCL SEPA, i rangXAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 14 Dinh ly Cong tute Bayes Cho AA yt hp ce bién e6 « vit doi mot bi whuw wdi ade suat tien nghion PUM} Web 1d, wii bien 06 1 bat B vai diew kien Ph 0, ta © wie suit hin ctia bien cf Ay nit didw bien bién e6 B aa vig ra li pcp) PEE _ BLAS PN heck 3) PIB) SF, PRP AY Vidu 2.15 Ti i mot benk hiem. Thong ké vé mot loai bénk hiém gap cho thay trong 100 uguei In thi ehi eo Engi ms benh, Dé kiém ura dieu nay mguii ta tidy hank x6 nhieu cho két qué ehinh xtc 99% néw moe ngwdt bi ubiéun benb, va <6 24 d6i vi mot ng Khong nhiém benh, Chon ngiin nbign mot ngud vA vet iém cho két qué dhtung tinh, tinh sae suit ngwdi nay e6 benh thar sir? Goi A Khi do. ta fico beh, A ngudi khong bénh va B— xét nghiem deny tink 6 PEW) BOD PE) 0.99% PERL) — O99v8 PORE) 0.02 Vi thé, xe suit edn tim Ia PUB PBI, PRY PURPORT + PORLAPCD Oty dy 2.16 Mot sin phim muén xuat xudng phi qua hai lan kiém tra. Nae suat mot phé phim bi loal dan kiém tra thi nbn 180.9. Now kan thit nbat kiém tra phé i thi xae suit no bi logi G Kin kiém tra thit hai 1a 0.95, Tinh sie pham khong suit mot phi phéim bi lai Giai Goi AL bién e6 phé phat bi loai qua hai Kin kiém cra Ayla biéa 66 phé pham bi loai d Lin kiém tra tha gy 1,2. Cach 1: Taco Vi cde | Hay €O Lrong Long 1A sung khdie nen ta e6: PEAY PEA PUK AD PEAY = PEAY © PLAY POND) — 0.9.0, 1.0.95 — 0,895, Cach 2:4) — M1 la bién 0 phé phim hone bi loai qua hai lity kiém tra. PEAY 1 PEN T= POND POVY) 1 0.1.0,05 0,995, Trang 1XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Thang 15 Vi du 2.17 Hop mt 6 5 bi dé, 6 bi ving. Hop hai e6 8 bi do, 6 bi vang, Lily ugdu nhién mgt vien bi tit hop mot bo sang hop hai. San do ky ngiw mhien mot bi tie hop hai, Tink xe suit bi lay vir hop hai la bi do. Giai Goi A218 bién 6 bi kiy due vir hop mot Le miu do, ving, C18 bin 66 bi kiy dude tir hop hai la mew a6, Nae suit C ay ra phu thude vao vide bién cb A hay B say ra trude do. PECIA) LR PEC/BY 8/1 PLA) B/S PCB) 6 LL 1. Bla mot he diy dit. Ta c6 xe suat can tink 1a PC) PICLAVPLA) + P(CEBYPLBY + Vi du 2.18 Co 3 eta hing ban nén bao hiém, Ty 1é n6n bao hiém khong dat eat Heong 6 etta hang tine bt la 10%, 6 evta hang tht hai lab ln 2 6 eta, hanyy thi ba %. Mot agit dén ngdu ubien 1 (rong 3 eta hang va mua agin nbién mot non bao bien ri dem di kiém tra, Két qué non ngueii nay mua dat chat heung, Tink sie sidit ngwoi nay dé mma non bay hiem 6 eta hang thit hai Giai Goi Ay TA bien cO nguti do da ti etta hang tht 2f 1.2.3 mua non bio hic Blt bién 66 ngudi dé mua dude non bao hiéin dat chit heing. Nac sue say ra etia bién c6 8 pla thude vio vide ngitdi do da ti eita hing mao. PCBYAD) — 0.9: PUBS Ap) — 0.85: PUBY Aa) — O48, Khai nang tdi mdi eifa hang eta nguei 6 Ta nut nha nen PAD POL) Pils) 13. Mat khae ys As Ag lap than mot be day di. Ta e6 PUB) — PUBSAYYPCAD + PUBIA PCA) + PUBS AS)P(As) — 0,85. Naw suit can tink [a pea py — PEBIADPA) _ 1 I PUB) Vi dy 2.19 Trong mot ving oF le mguisi nghien thade Id va ude elag ung ther vom hong [a 15%, Co 25% ngu@ii nghién thude [4 nhung khong ung thir vom hong, 50% Trang 15NAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 16 ngu@i khong ngbien thude 1a va khong ung thir vont hong, LO% ngudi khong nghien thude la va mae chitng ung thet vom hong. Str dung sé liéu thong ke 6 the ket Jaan duve yi giita benks ung the vou hong va thoi quen hat dhude Le? Giai Dé dica ra ket Inn ta di so sank xae suat dé mot ngudt bi ung thie vows hong khi gui dy bat thude 1 va sae suat cha mot _nguGi ung thir vom hong voi dign kien nga do khong hit Ma Quan sat ng’ nhien mot ngubi d ving dé, Goi Ala bien nguat 46 ung thie vous hong, BI Dida 6 nytt do uit thude Ta Theo gid thiét ta eo: PAB) — 0.15: PAB — 0.1 PUB) — 0.25: PENT — 0. PB) POAB) © PUYBY 04 PUB PAB © PUY 0.6, Khi do ta eo, PUB) ae PEARS - PAB) ware I STS: PI aT ) 167. PEAS) TT OTS: PULL BY PRY 0.16 Vay nbing ngudi nghien dhude la 66 xde suat bi ung thit vom hong eao hen nbitug nigudi khong hit thude fa. Vi du 2.20 Ty |e sin phim logi mot G16 hang hit nbat, thit hai, that ba Kin het Ta 0.95: 00 va pham lay ra 6 tit 9 san pham loai mot trd ten thi mua 16 hang 46, Tit mdi 16 lay ra 10 san phim dé kiém tra, Néu trong 10 sin a. Tinh sie suat dé 16 hang Unit nbait dare mua, b. Tinh sie suat de it mdt le hang dive mua, ce. Néu chi cé mot 16 hang diye mua, tink xde suat dé dé [i 16 hang tht bai a. Kiém tra 10 san pham La thuc hin day thi nghiém Bernoulli, Lo hang sé duce mua Khi sé sian pham logi mot trong 10 sin pha Bt bing 9 hone 10 Goi Ag? 1.2.5 18 bién 66 lo hang that ¢duse mua PEAY — Cf.0.95°.0.05 4 0.951 0.91386. ang 16XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG _____Trang 17 Tung tar ta 6 PCA) — C8.0,99.0,1 4 0,91 0.7361. PCAs) — Cf.0.85°.0.15 + O85" 0.54% b, Goi BALA A} Ay La Didn e6 66 ft nbat mot 16 hang date mua. CAL tf Art AY Li bién 66 khong 6 lo hang nao die mua PEBy PUA + A Ay I= PUA A+ Ast!) 1H PEADEMI 1 PUAN PAMPER = 0.98961 6D AA ALL ALAA, | AAA, Bs bid 66 ei 66 1 16 hang diese mua PED) PEMA MO) ALAA Aa AD) PEASPEAAPLEY + PEADPLAD PAG) F PLA) PULP) 0. 15117. Naw suit edin tins las PEA /D) 0,191. 2.5 Su doc lap Dinh nghia 2.5.1. Hai bién e6 1 vic # got lA doe lap néu PEAR) — PEA, ngutue Tai goi La phn thude Ménh dé (ra B doe PAB) PEA}+ PCB). Vi dy 2.21 Mot cong ty san suit may giat va may say e6 ¢7 I bie hin san phim tromy Lindi Kin rest 1 S00/ va 10%. Mot ngudi mua cd bai san phan nay, tinh xée fi hai may déu pli bio hab? bién e6 bio hnh may sis. Ta eo: Goi A la bien e6 bao banh may giat vi B I PEA) 03, PUB) 0.1, Khid6, sae sudt dé bdo hinl 2 may la PAB) — PEA} PUB) Out Dinh nghia 2.5.3. Cie bién 66 Ai... le gyi la doe lap nda Pees — T] A}. vedi S tA p con eta {1.2.0.0}.XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Thang 18 Vi du 2.22 C6 2 hue sinh gidi, 3 hoe sinh kha va 4 hoe sink trang binh thi tée ughigp phd thong, Nae suat thi dau eda moi hoe sink gidi, kha, tung bink tang g 120.99; 0,95; 0.9. Khi cong bé két qui chico mot hoe sink trong chfu hoe sinh nay thi hong. Tinh xe suat dé hoc sinh thi hOng a hoc sink gidi Gidi Goi A.B.C lan Ingt 1a bién e6 ehi ed mot hoe sink gidi, kh, trung binh thi hong HAY BCR bien e6 6 mot trong chin hoe sinh may thi hong Néu chi e6 hoe sinh gidi thi hong ta e6 hat trading hop. Tromg mdi trading hyp mot hoe sink gid! Uni hong, mot hénug sink gidi thi dju edn eke hoe sink kliie etiays thi dan. Vikét qua thi cia eae hoe sink 1a doc lap nhan nen ta e6 PEA) mo 10,010,954 Tutsng te PB) — C10.05.0,951.0,9910.0's PEC) — C]0. 1.0.9.0, 95%.0, 908, Nae sniit e6 mot hoc sink thi hong [a PUD) PAP RAC) PONE PUBL 4 PIC) > Naw suit can tink [a PASTE Tom tat va Bai tap 2.5.1 Khong gian mau va bién ci 2.5.1 Bon tnding dai hige 1, 2,3. 4 dang tham gia mot gidi din bong 16. Troug rong dau tien | sé dn wi 2 va 3 sé du wi 4 Sau d6, hai doi ebién thang sé déu dé sianh chite v6 dich va hai doi thua etn sé dau vedi mbau. Mot ket qué dire biéw thi bang 1924 (1 choi voi 2, 3 chai vi 1 trong tran du tien san do 1 chai wii 3, 2 choi voi 4). a. Nae dinh khong ian mda bb. Goi Ala bién 66 1 thang, Hay xe dink A, G de Ni Bla bien e6 2 e6 tha ia de giinh chite vo dich, Hay xe dink B. dink A} BAB va AW Ta gi Trang 18XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 19 2.5.2 GiA sit rng ede phutamg tien di theo Joi ra mot xa lo dge biet eo thé re phai chia 3 xe. (2), 06 tai (L.) howe di théing (8). Quan sat hasing a. Litt ko tat ed eae ke ned Ae’ 3 xe dou dieting mot hun, b, Liet ke tat cf edie ket qua 6 trong bi quai co trong bi nc £3 xe 6 dng di khée nhaw re phi Lit dd. Litt fit ed ede Rot qui e6 trong bién 6 C’ hai trong ba xe 66 hu Ait ed ede REL que e6 trong bin 66 D hai trong ba xe eb eng hutdns ai e. e kéL qua co trong DSC} Diva CD, 2.5.3 Mot he thong duge két mdi vdi nhau boi ba thank phan nl trong so db dui Lie Boi vi cie he thong com 2-3 duge me song song vdi nhiau nen be thong cou s® hoat dong néu ft nbat mot trong hai thauh phan 2 hose 3 heat dong. Dé toan bo he thong at dng vi ed them hoat dong etia thanh phi hhoat dong dit thank phn 1 phai h howe 3. Thit nghieu be théng bing edeh sic dink ste hoat ¢ Ins plain khong boat dong nig ets andi than phi hank come) cho mot thank phan hoat dong va F (that bai) eho mot thanh a, Liet ke tat cid ede ket qua eo trong A Ta bién e6 hai trom ba think: phi hoat dong. Db. Liet ke tit ef ede ket quid e6 trong 12 diem e6 it nbat hai think phin boat dong. Let ke Lt ed ee Kot quai e6 trong CTR bién e6 bé thong hoat dons d. Lit ke ket qua co trong CsA) C2 ACS BY CL BC. 2.5.4 Mot gia dink bao gout ba ngudi A, Bova C dén midt cam y 16-663 phone 1. 2 yA 3. Trong mot tudin nhét dink, moi thanh vien trong gia dinhi thm phong khaim mot lan va duge phan ngiw nhien dén phong bat ki, Thi nghiém ngku nbien bao fm ghi sé phong cho moi thanh vién, Mot két qua lA (1, 2, 1) eho A dén phong 1 B dén phong 2, va C dén phon a. Nae dinh khong gian uw Db, List ke tit ed ede ket qua cd trong trwdng hup ed ba thank vign dén eang nig phong 1, Lift ke vit cf cae ket qui c6 trong triting hyp vit ed thank vien di dén eae phony khae nhaw @. LiPL ke tat ci ede Két qui e6 trong trutiug hyp khong €6 ai di dén phony 2 19XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 20 2.5.2 Cac tién dé va tinh chat ciia xc suat 2.5.5 Mot cong ty qu taung ho cumg edp cho khaeh hang mot loat ede qui: qug thi tnitimg tien 6, ba quy trai phiéu khdie nhau (nggin, trung, dai han), bai quy ching khoan (vita va cao) va mot qui ei bling, Khéeh sii bitw e6 phan chi trong mot qu; UY le phiin tram eia cae khée hang trong ede qué lu sau Thi uncing titn 20% Trai phién dai han 1% Trai phiéw ngan han In’ Trai phiéu trang han 2 Ching khoan vira 10% Ching khosn ean ah Can bang, 7 a. Tinh xae suit mot ea uhan sé hit ed phan trong qué ean bing. 1b. Tinh sae suit mot ea nhan sé itu e6 phan trong que trai phigw ¢. Tinh sae sudt mot ea nhan Khong sé bitwcé phan trong qug ebiang: kh 2.5.6 Mot come ty uit van may tinh bien nay da dé suit ba dur dat, Cho Ay fk dur an thit# due chon voi 12.5 va gid sit rane P(A) — 0.22 PEA) — 0,25: PAG) 0.28: POLL) O11 PA Ag) 0,05: PLA Ag) 0,07; PULA Ag) 0K Tin x ie Sat cia ede Dien 64 saw ali h dK, beta! eo MA eA At Ay eA is hose dién) dawge mua boi 2.5.7 Quan sit 2 loai may sy quan ao (sit dung nam khach hing khéie nhau tai mot eta hany, Nénoscie snat mot may sy dign dive uma [a O28: tik sae sat it aban hai miaiy sy dlien due mua? b. Néu Pled nam ngndi mua may sly logi sit dung kf gas) — 0116 va P(e uti uma may sy loai dieu) — 0,005, Tink sae sudt it nat mot may eta mdi loai duwe mua? 5.8 Cho 118 bién cd: yeu can ho trg tie te van phan mom thong A bién ef: you can ho tra Hie SAS. Gid sie PEL) 03 PCB) 05. a. Tai sao POY | PUR) fA ¢. Tinh POL4 B) b. Tinh PUY) dd. Tinh PUY 2.5.9 Kid tia ede mdi han ten mach in bing uit ng eo thé eho ket quart ke vdi bo SPSS. chit quan. Mot phan ela vin dé bat ngudn tit mot sé loai Ibi (vi du nue kha nang hiéu thi, 16 rong), Do dé, ngay c& ulitag than tra vien 06 tink do cao cting 06 the rang 20XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 21 khong dong ¥ vé vide bd tf etia mot Khop en thé, Trong mot dgt kiéun tra 10.000 khop, thanh tra A di phat hign date 724 khiém khuyét, thanh tra vien B tim thay TSI khdp e6 16i va 66 1159 khdp bi dnb gia lac e6 Khuyét dim bai it nhat mgt trong, hai thanh tra. Gid sit rang trong 10.000 khép die chon ngin nhien a. Tinh xe suit cong ty chon ra duge mot khop bi duh gid khiém khayét bai ei hai thank tra b, Tinh ste suit mot khap bi danh gia 1 bi le bat thanh tra view Bonhimg khong boi thanh tra 2.5.10 Mot cong ty bio hiém cung ep hon ute khéu trit kiiée uhaw eho hop déng bao him nha fa khong e6, thép, trang bink vi cao: ba e&p do baw hiéu 6 Lo la thap, trung bin va cao, Bang diesi la wv i ede loai bio bitm kizie nhaw eta ea bai loai bio hie, Vidi ult tle ca uban co khdv trig ante thip doi wii bdo hiém 6 16 vi thip bio hiém aba dB 0.06 010 Kho Thap Trung binh Cao 0.06, 0,05 0,03, O10 0,20 O10 003, O15 015 Lay ngiu nbien mot ed nban 6 c4 hai loai hink bao biém 6 to va nha 6. a. Tinh xae saat ed aban nay e6 mot khodn khéu tir bio biém 6 tO mute trang hinb va khodin khan writ bio hit nha unite ea¢ b. Tinh xae sat eA nhan die lay ra co khoan khéu ttt bio hie tO mite thip. Tinh xe suit ea nin dite ly ra 66 khodin kau trit bio biém nba 6 mite thap ¢. Tinh sée suit ea nhan nay ed khodn khéw tit bio hiéun 6 16 va bao hiém nb 6 cimny, mt di. Dia vio cau tra Io ea 6, tink xe sudt ed nba duge lay ra e6 hai khodn hin tri bio hiém la khite mie ¢. Nie suit ea nhin ditde lay ra eo it nhat mot kin trit bao bi sm mnie tha 1A bao nhieu? . Dita vio cau tra lol cia ctu &, sae suat et uhan duge lay ra ed mae khéw trie ba hiém khong thap Ki bao abiow? 2.5.11 Ba sit bra chon pho bién cho mot loai xe mdi las GPS tich hyp (A), cite so trai (B) vk psd niedong (C}. Néw 40% nguet mma yen edn A, 5446 yeu clin B 7 Trang 2XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 22 yen can A hore C. 80% yen edn B hose ( in A hoae By vA 85% you cin A hoae B hoae ©, Tinh sae suit eta nbitag bién e6 sau [Gui eA yeu ed C, 63% yen ef hose BY li biéu thi eho it nbAt mot trong hai ha chon A, B dite yen edu] a. Tinh sae suit ngui mma tiép theo sé yeu edn it nbdit mGt trong ba lia chon b. Tinh xée sudt ngudi mua tiép theo sé khony chon ba lua chon nay cc. Tinh sae swat agiti uma tip theo sé chi yeu cau hop s6 ur dong va khong yen can mot trong hai ha chon Tinh xae sudt mgudd mua tip theo sé yeu ctu mot trong ba hye ebon 2.5.12 Mot bo phan hor thuat eo nam thanh view Lis Anderson, Bos, Cox, Cramer va Fisher phai lia chon hai thank vién cua mink dé phue vu trong mot ty ban x duvet nhan si. Boi vi cong vide s@t6n nhiéu thei gian, nén nga ta quyét dink rine ngwii dai dieu s@ duce hea chon bing each dat ten én nhitng manh gidy gidug bet nhan va chon niu nbien hai man gidy a. Tinh sae suit chon dite Anderson vi Box b. Tinh sae suat it nhat mot trong hai thanh vien 66 ten bat di bing C duve cc, Néu nam think vien tren da ving giding day 3,6. 7. 10 va LL aden tai true dai hoe thi sée swat hai dai di¢n dive chon 6 téng s6 it nhat 1 nam kink nghieur widing day 6 d6 1 bao nhieu’? 2.5.3 Giai tich t6 hop 2.5.13 Mot cra hang am thanh cuny cap mite gid dae biet eho mot bo hoan chinh ede thiét bi Am thanh gdm 4 1hiét bi (receiver, compact dise player, speakers, turntable) Mot gui mua sé due Iya chon ede nba sdin xuat cho mdi bo phan Receiver: Kenwood. Oukyo, Pioneer, Souy, Sherwood Compact dise player: Onkyo, Pioneer, Sony, Techies Speakers: Boston, Infinity, Polk mutable: Oukyo, Sony, ‘Teac, Technies Bang tren cho thy cae bing etia tiny bo phan dé cho khéieh hang c6 the lea chon dé kév noi vai nhan (mdi bo phan ehi ditde chon | hang). Hay tm lil eae eA hoi duci day a. Co bao nhieu edeh tao thanl mot bé am thank hodn chink? b. Co bao nhieu céch tao thanh mét bo am thank how chinh trong do thiet biXAG SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG. Trang 23 reeeiver vic eompaet dise player lat eiia hing Sony’? ¢.. C6 hao nhieu edeh tao think mot bé Am thank hoin chink ma ede thank phan tia né khong phi eva hang Sony’? Co hao nhieu each tan than mot bo am thank hoa chink trong dé e6 i nhdt mot thie bi eta hang Sony? tao thank mot bo am thanh hoan fe. Néu lua chon ngau nhién ede thie bi chinh thi sae suat rm ou? Nae su 2.5.14 Loi bin phim co thé 1A 15i do mach didn hoae li cu hoe, Mot eg st sita eluta oo Am thank eG it ubét mot thiet bi eiia hang Sony 1a bao nh L dé eo ding mot thiet bi eta hang Sony la bao nhieu? ban phim hien dang e6 25 ban phim Joi, trong do 66 G ban phim i do mach dign 9 ban phim loi do ev hoe a. Co bao nhieu eaeh chon ng nbien 5 ban phi b. Co bao nhie phim bi li de mach dien? cdc chon nga uhién 5 ban phim trong dé e6 ding hai bam ¢, Tinh sae swat tong 5 bin pli duge chon uygin nbién 66 a nhat {ban phim bi Ibi do ca hye 2.5.15 Mot co s6 sin xuat sit duny 20 cong uhan Hun vite ca ngdy, 15 cong nhan Jam viée ca ehiéu va 10 cong nan Kan viée ea dem. MOt nue kien soat ebdit eon chon 6 nhan vien dé Kiem tra, Gili sit view lua chon duge thie bién sao cho bat ke om 6 cong nhan nao cing e6 cd hoi duce Iva chon nhu nhau. a. C6 bao nhieu eich Ia chon duge 6 cong nhan Ia eiia ca ngiy, Tinh sic suit Iya duce 6 cong nhan la eta ca ngay? b. Nae snat dé 6 cong nhan dive Iya chon dén dén tir chang mot ca lam viee Ta hao nhiéw? cc, Nae sudt dé 6 cong nhan due Iva chon dén vit it ulat hai ca Kan view & nhau Li bao nhiéu? d. Nie sudt dé A nhat mot trong 3 ca Lim vice sé khong e6 eony nhan dai dién Ib bao nhieu? 2.5.16 Mot nha chat xtie tie ki 1 ecu dink hag eva obi 11 hiéu suat efia mot phn dng hoa hoe Iie nyc 0, ap swat va do k tac khée nhaw dang disge xem xét ni dang nphi ht dink, Ba obi i nhan, bon dp suat khée han va nam chats a. ae Le vw sit dung bat ki nhiet do, ap suat va eb s nif ughiom thi e6 the phat chav thi nghiem bao nhien Lin? b. Co bao ubicu Uae aghioms neu sit dung abier do dip whan vaXAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG _____Trang 24 hat? ¢. Git sit c6 nam Kan thit nghiém khée nhan sé die thie hién vio ngay thet bat. Néw ndin hia chon duge chon agdu nbién trong $6 140 68 ede kha nang c0 the sy ra sao cho bt ky nhOm nam mio eiing co xe suit dive chon nhc nha, ae sit clit sie tae khde ohan dae sit dung cho mdi kan ehay I bao nhieu? 2.5.17 5 dién thoai di dong, 4 dién thoai khong day va 4 dién thoai eo day vita duve chuyén dén mot trung tam bao trl, Gid sit rang ede diem thoai may duige bio tri theo tit urduge phan bé mgd bien 112,300 15 a. Tinh sae suit Lat ef di¢n thoai khOng day dude bio it trong 10 diem thoat dude bio tri dau tien b. Tinh xae swat sau khi bao tri duge 10 dign thoai thi chi eon hai trong s6 ba loai dién thoai ebm lak edn diege bite un ¢. Tinh xée suit 6 dieu thoai dude bao tri diw tien chi thude hai loai 2.5.18 86 PIN ci nhan cia thé ATM g’m {chit s6 digge tao tit cie 96 0, 1. 2 9 a. Co Thaw nhiéu s6 PEN kluie nhaw néu khong e6 han ehé ve sit hy ehion ese chit b. Theo mot dai dién eiia chi nbn tai dia phuang evia Chase Bank, 66 nhitag han ché thie #8 v8 vide lita chon ede chit x6, Cac hga chon sau day bi efim! i. Tat cA bin chit sé gidng het nhaw ii, Car chit s6 cing dan hose gid din, ching han lve 6513, iii, Bat ky trink ar nao bat dau tir 19 (nam sink La qui dé doan). Tinh sie mot trong ning mA PEN duge chon nga nhien Bema PEN hap I ¢. Co ngudi da danh ep mot thé ATM va biét ehit sé dan tien va endi eta ma PIN la 8 va 1 Aub ta e6 ba Hin thi true khi thé durge git lai boi may ATM. Vi vay, anh ta chon ngliw nbién ede chit s6 thit hai va thit ba cho Hin thir din tien, saa 6 chon ngdu nhién mot ep ce chite sO khée nhaw cho Fin chit thi hai va chon gi ubien mot cap s6 khuie cho Kin thit thit ba (ngudi nay biét ve nbimg han che dite mo ta trong phin trén vi vay chi bra chon trong eae khA wing hop le). Tinh sie sudt nguéi nay e6 thé tray cap vao tai khodin d. Tinh Iai xae suit trong (c) nén cfe chit s6 dim tien va endi cling tog tag, lava Trang 24NAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG. Tran, & 2.5.4 Xac sudt co diéu kién ws thong Huey (Ay), ws premium (43). Trong s6 nbitng khiich 2.5.19 G mot tram xang nao do eo 40% nguvi sit dung Ga 3 9% sit dung G hang sit dung Gas thong thittng thi chi c6 30% nguat dé diy bink chita cia ho (3), tung ty cho nati sit dung Gas + va Gas premium Ia Gt1% va 50% sti dung Gas ~ (4) va 2 a. Tinh xéc suat khieh hang tiép theo sé yeu eau dé Gas | day vio binh chita ita he. Db. Tinh sie swat khach hang tiép theo st yeu chu dé day vao bink chita eita ho? ¢. Néu khach hang tiép theo do day vao bin clita eta ho, xée suat ho yeu eau 6 Gas thong thuéng, hic? 2.5.20 Gid thuyet aude gia nao d6 san d6 Gas ©, Gas premium Lin haat ka bao THY may bay hang nhe bién mat trong khi dang bay & mot en 60 60% dave phat hien, Trong sé may bay dite phat h may bay e6 dinh vi khin ep, trong sé méy bay khone dude phat hen thi 6 90% may bay khong co dink vi khan cap. Gid sit mot chide may bay hang nhe da bién vit a. Néu nd e6 dlink vi kha ep, xe suit no Khong duge phat bigu Ethan nhieu? b. NE no khong e6 dink vi khan 4p, xée sudt 6 duge phat bien Lk bao ab ea 2.5.21 Cie chi tidt etia mot loai sin phim aio do duge van ebuyen dén uh came cap bang ede van chuyén LO chi tiét trong | 15, Gid sit ring S09 tat e& eae 1 do Di Ti wa 20% elute hai eh vid Khdng clita ede ehi tet bi LOE, 30% chute mot ehi ci bi li, Hai ehi tit rir mot lo dive chon nga nbien va kiém tra. Tinh sie sndt 16 dive chon 66 0, Lv 2 chi tiét bi bi dita vao dién kien san day a. Ca 2 chi tiet dive kiém tra la khong bi Loi b. Mot trong hai chi tiét dave kien tra la bi 16: 2.5.22 Gid sit thong ke ede du khich dang trong ki nghi thay eo 10% kidm tra. eniail cong viée, 30% sit dung dién thoai di dong dé ki vf mang, nGi vi cong vige, theo laptop, 23% kiém tra email cong viée va sit ding dién thoai dé ker 6i vii cong vite, khong sit dung dién thoai, email va laptop. Ngoai ra trong LOO ngudi eb 80 ngdGi mang laptop thi ho eg kiéu tra email cong vige va trong LOU ngu®ii 6 TH ngutli sit dung dién thogi dé két ni voi cong viee thi ho efing mang theo laptop. a. Mot khach du lich dude chon nga nbién va thay ring ngudi nay eo kiem tra email cong vite, tinh sie Suit nytt nay sit dung diem thoai dé ket noi vai cong vite 1b. Tinh sie suat mot khéel du leh mang theo laptop cing sit dung diem thoai de két n6i vai cong vieeXAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 26 ¢, Néa mot kluich du lich duge chon agin nbien wi nguelt nay e6 kiémy tra email cong vige va mang theo laptop, tink xée suat: ngudi do sit dung diem thoai dé két ni vi cong: vice 2.5.23 Trong nigan ngita khing bo, Gia sit mot hé thong glam sit 6 990% khé nany sie dinh chink Jam qua da co réit nhieu tran eai vé cae loai glam sit phit hup dé sae mot ten khiing bo vi 99,9% kha nang xae dink chinh sic mot mgwii khong phai la khiing bé trong tung lai. Gid sit ring trong 200 crigu dan e6 144 1000) ké Khim bd trong tung lai, Chon ngéu nbién mot neudi trong s6 300 triéu neil, ngudi nay bi he théng sae dinb [8 mot ké khing bé trong twang lai, Kha nang ng darge chon 46 thue sic la ten kliing b6 trong tevng lai Jk bao abieu? Litu wid uri etia sie sudt nay 6 khién ching ta tin usny vio be thong gid sit hay khong? Gidi thieh. 2.5.24 Mot nguei ban sé Washington, D.C dé tham quan, TY 10% e6 ay sit dung ede hang bang khong 1, 2, ig G Los Angeles thing xuyén cee cluyén di dén 3 lan lagt Ja at%: 30% va 20%. Di voi hang hang khong s6 1, ede ehuyén bay te dén D.C la 30% va urd dé L.A la 10%, Déi vai bing hang khong 96 2, uy le nay Ia 25% va 20%, trong khi d6i v6 hang hays khong $6 3 ef Ie may Ka 40% va 25%. Neu cling (1 bid ring trong mot chayén di dae biet, 66 dy di dén mnon & mot trong hai diéw dén, tink sae snat lin bay sau ngudt phy uit nay sit dung ele hang hang khong sé 1, $6 2 va 83? Gi sit ring eo hoi dén muon GLA TA khong bi anh hiring hai ubing gi xdy ra tren chuyén bay wi DC 2.5.25 Trong bai tap 24.1 ta bd sung them edeh sit dung thé tin dung eta khiel Khang nba sau 70% ting sé khiich hang sit dung Gas thong thing va dé diiy binh chia sit dimg thé tin dung 50% tng s6 khael ang sit dung Gas thong Chute vi khong d6 diy Dink elicta sit dung the tin dung, GOY tang s6 khvich hang sit dung Gas — va dé day ink clita sit dung thé tin dung. 50% tong sO khach hang sit dung Gas — vi dé khonye day binh eluta siedung thé tin dung. 50% tong s6 khach hing stt dyng Gas premium vi do day binh ehita st dung thé tin dung, 10% tong sé khéch hang sit dung Gas premium va khong dé diy binh chita si dung thé tin dung. ang 26XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang Tink xée suat cho Khéeh hang tiép theo dén a. Sif dung Gas + va dé day binh ehita va e6 sit dung thé tin dung b. Sirdung Gas premium va khong dé day bink ehita va e6 sit dung the tin dung €. Sit dmg Gas premium va e6 sit dimg thé tin dung, Dé day bink va sit dung thé tin dung e. Sif dung thé tin dung, g. Néu khiich hang tiép theo sit dung thé tin dung, xte suit ho sit dung Gas premium 2 2.5.5 Su doc lap 2.5.26 Mot cong ty ve diw e6 hai dir an dang hoat dong, mot d Chaw A xa mot 6 Chau Au, Goi Ala bién 66 dyran Chau 4 thanh cons, £1 bién e6 dian Chau Au thank cong. Gid sit A 22 doe lap wei PON) — a4: PUB) — 0.7. a. Néu dit an Chau A khong thanh cong, thi xae suit diy an Chan Au khong, thanh cong 1 bao nhieu? b. Tinh sae swat ¢6 it what mot trong hai dit én sé thanh cong ¢. Biét c6 it ubit mot dye an thank cong, tink sae suat ehi ed dye an Chan A thanh cong 2.5.27 Mot he thong hao gom thank phéin ket ndi voi nhau theo 2 nin, Nhanb 6 tren gdm cic thank phan 1 va 2 diese két noi song song vai nha, do dé dé shanks hai hé thong 1, 2 phai hoat dong. Nhanh desi tren hoat dong thi it hit mot trong Om. eae thank phan 3.4 n6i Gép vai nhau, nhanl dudi s@ hoat dong néu e& 2 thanhs phan 3,4 cing hoat dong, He théng s@ hogt dong néw mot trong hai nin hoa dong, Néw cae thanh phan hoat dong doe lap va tink sae sudt mln cren va whanbs Audi cing boat doug, Tinh sae suat he théng hoat dong, 2.5.28 Khi kidui tra ee xe tai tram kiéne tra khi thai thi thay e6 TOY se 66 Inn hi thai vuyt qu quy dink, Gid sit ede xe ké tiép vuyt qua kiém tra hoae khong vuyt qua kiém tra Li die kip vi nhau, Tinh ese xe suat sau a3 xe tiép theo vst qua idm tra b. Tt nbat mot trong 3 we khong vwot qua kim tra 6. Co ding L xe trong 3 x0 wiest qua kiém tra di. Toi da 1 xe trong 3 se vat qua kiéin tra e. Bi6t ring 66 it nht 1 trong 3 xe vue qua kiém tra, tinh sae suit e4 3 xe dba vata qua, Tran,XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 28 2.5.29 a, Mot cong ty g6 han van chuyeén 10.000 tam gd. Gia sit 20% nbvitag van am dite chon nay con qua tui dé sit dung trong eong trink thi cong quan trong mot cach ngdu nbién, ln legt titag cai mot. Goi 41a bién ed tam dau tien chon eon tui va BT bién 6 tam duce chon tiép theo efing tuvi, Tinh PCA). PCB). PAB) voi AB de lap voi nha Db. VG A,B doe lap vii nha va PA) — PER) — 0.2 th PAB)? Khae biet iia cau 1r8 Ib nay vf efi tad li dean (a) 1A bao nbiéu ? Voi me deh fa tink toan P(AB) ligu ta 00 thé gid sit rhuyg A,B 6 eau (a) la doe lap dé 06 thé eo danse xi suit ehinh: sae khong, ¢. Cho mot 16 bao gom 1 tim trong dé e6 2 tam go eon tui. Vay Uni vide yt sit ring A. 2 doe lap bay gid co mang Jai eau tra Iai xp xi wi eau uni loi PLB) khong? Dit khaie biét clin so vdi caw (a) 1a gi? Khi nao ban aghi ring mot gid dinh 6 gia tri hi nln duge mgt eau tra loi gain ding vi PLABY? tinh doe lap 2.5.30 Lita chon ngdu nbién mot ngudi dé thit nghiém ba loai xe khae nhau L, 2. 3 vii bién eh Ap Ta thich xe si.7 12 Gid ste PEAY 0.55: POA) — 0.65: PEA) — 07 PAY Ai) = 6 PEA As) PALA Ap + As) — 0,88 a. Tinh xe swit_ngudi diese chon thich se sb 1 va 2 b. Tinh PUA [Ao c. A va Ag e6 doe lap dd. Néu ngudti ditge chon khong thich xe 61, xae suat ngudi do thich mot trong, vi nha vay khong? Tra Wi theo 2 each khée nhaw hai chiée e6n lai Ia bao nhieu? Bai tap téng hep TH 2.1 Mot coy ty sin xuat nhé e6 lam vie ca dem. Co 20 the mney Lan view eho cong ty tao thank mot nhom, boi eo bao nhieu a. Gia sit inOt dém Ram viée e6 3 thy me eich lap nom Faun ea den? 1b, Néu cde thy may duge xép hang 1.2... 20 theo nding ine titag gui, hoi 66 bao nhigu hom mA ede nhom db khong e6 the may 161 ude? €. Co bao nhieu nhom sé eG ft uhdit 1 trong s6 10 the may tt nbaw? di. Néu mgt trong ubitys uhom duce la bien de Kam vige vo mgt nau sang 28XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG. Trang 29 ca dem dae biet, tink xée sudt ths may tt nbét sé khong Kun vige 16: hom do? TH 2.2 Mot vé tinh dir kién phong tie Cape Canaveral 6 Florida va mot eai khuae & can eit quan sy Vandenberg 6 California, Goi 12 bién e6 ve tinh & Vandenberg phong thanh cong va B18 bién e6 vé tinh 6 Cape Canaveral phony thank cong, Gia sit, PUL > PUR POLY BY 0.626 .va PAB) 00M Tinh PEA) va POR). TH 2.3 May phat dang git not tin nhdin bing eteh sit dung mot mi ubi phan Ja mot chudi cae 84-0 vA 1. Moi bit trayén (0 hose 1) phai di qua ba vale dé tip ean ngudi uhan. Condi rule, xe suat ma mot bit iti di s@ khae wi bit da nlvan ducue (not sip dito ngwue) 1a 0.2. Gidi sit ing cae role hoat dong doe lap vit uhan May phat + Rule | + Rule 2 > Rule 3 Newoi nha a. Néu mot bit 1 duce peti tir may phat, tinh xe suat bit 1 duye gui qua duse a ba role. b. Néu mot bit 1 duce yi uit may phiit, tinh xée sudit bit L nay duve ulin boi ugwii abn? [Goi gs vim két qua thue nghiém e6 thé dive hién th) tren mgt so dis cay voi ba thé be eita ede chi nhink, mot thé hé eho moi En tiép.| . Gif sti 70% 86 bit duve giti tirmay phat Le uhity bit 1, Neu mot nguéi whan dave bit 1 tinh sae suat mot bit Lda durge git di TH 2.4 Newdi Aco nam ngudi ban than (B.C. DE. don Lic ben ngodi va di moi nam mgt ban dén mot bita tiée dé thong bao tin don val P). Ada nghe mot tin Dé bat din, A chow ngiu hie mot trong so nam va noi tin don vai ed whan da chon, Ci nhan d6 san do ehon ng nhién mot trong bén ngudi edn lai va bp lai tin dén, Tip tue, mot cd han méi duge Iya chon vit nbitug nwt chica vitng, myghe tin dén ea ea nhan vita nghe n6, cho dén khi moi mgwai due biét tin dén. Je lap lai theo thit ty BL C.D, E, vat a. Tinh xée suit tin din b, Tink sée sudt F la ngudi thi ba duge nghe tin don, ¢. Tinh sie sudt Fla ngudi cudi eiuig nghe this tin don. di. Néu 6 midi giai doan ngui hiéu dang "ed" tin don khong biét ai da nghe n6 v8 chon ngin nhién ngndi nhin tiép theo tir Hit ef maim et mhan, tinh xée sndit F vin chur nghe thay i tin don sau khii no di diye noi msi Kin trong bita tise? Trang 29XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG. Trang 30 in dén vide sae dinh mgt tap edit trong mot TH 2.5 Mot kf sic hoa hige quan ». Biét do chink xae etta x6 loai sin phi shiem kiém tra nhut sau: xae suat phi hien tap chit n tap chit m ul nd 6 tron sin Khong phit hien thi 1 n6 khong eo trong sim phan 1a 0.9. Ty le sin phim may co tap char 1a Ot sin phamn dite chon nygiw nbien, Biet trong ba set 0%. Nev ughiew ap chat ghi¢on riénye biét chi e6 hai Kin x6t nghiém phy 6 tap edt, tinh xae suat tap cht 06 mat trong sin phim ny TH 2.6 Mot loai de vit diye sit dung trong sin suit may bay due tac rane dé khoa lai va tranh noi long do rung dong trong qua trin stt dung. Gia sit 957% s6 Ge vit vest qua duge quit trink kiéu tra ban dan, Trong s6 5% s6 60 vit khong qua kidin tra ban dau e6 20% bj 10: nghiém trong nén phai bo di, s6 com lai duge siti dlén Sita lai trong dé 66 10%, khong sta dive GUY com lai diese dieu chink wa thong qua kian tra. a. Tinh xe sndt mot de wit duge hia chon ngin shien vwat qua kiém tra ban din hoe sau khi duge didu chink va vuot qua kiém tra vt n6 da vugt 1b, Bist mot de ft da due thong qua qué trinh kiéu tra, xée wt chink Iai la bao nhie qua kiém tra ban din vi khong cin et TH 2.7 Mot phan tram dan s6 mot ving e6 ngwii mae mot loai benh eu thé. OU ng 66 banks va 5% Mot loai xét nghiém cho ra két qua dong tinh déi v6 61 vi nitag nguet khong nvde ben, Gis sit ede x6v nghiom duuge ap dung doc lap chige | voi h: a chon ngin nhién. a. Tinh xae sit mi ei hai kot qua. xét nghiém dén-e6 chang mot két bean nan man Kha nhaw tireling mot e& b. Néu ed hai x6t nghidm diony tink, tink xae suat ea whan duge Iya elon la ac ben neni e6n TH 2.8 Mot he th hhoat doug L6t 1 09: tot 1a 0, éng bao gm hai thank phan. Nae swat chauuh phiin chit hai fe sudt (0 nb&t mot tony s6 hai thanh phan ny heat dong, . Bit thank phan din tien hoat dong t6r, tinh wae suat thinb phan chit hai efing heat G xa. sale Sudt ed hai thank phéin hoat dong t6t 12 0. omg t6t vu chuyen TH 2.9 Mot cong ty what dinh sé ei plit nhanh EL. Trong uhituy burw Jn kien qna dem qua di dén sau thd gian giao hang dae Trang 30XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG Trang 31 dim bao (dén 118), Nou mot hé so haw tit qua dem dige chon ugin nie tir tp cilia cong ty, Linh xae sudt 16 hang d6 da di qua EL va dén we. Gil sir ring 50% buu kin dieye giti qua dich vu chuyén phat nhanh £2 va 10% con lai dude git qua F3. Trong s0 ati qua E2, chi cd 1% dén tré, trong khi 5% 10 hang do E3 wir ly dén muon, a. Chow ngau ulin mgt 16 hing, tinh xae swat nd dé muon? b, Néw bara kien dig chon ngin non da dlén ding ati, tinh sie snat no khong date siti qua BI? TH 2.10 Mot cong ty sit dung ba day chuyén kip rip khae nhaw Ia AL, AQ va A3 dé san xuat mot loai san pham ey the, Nhitng sin pham san xuat béi day chuyén AL AQ, A can phai khae phue khuyet diem chidu te 16 lin linut la 5%, 84 va 10% Gia sit rang 50% sin pham duge sin xniit theo day chuyén A1, 30% duce sin suit theo day ehuyén A2, va 20% sin suit theo day ehuyén AR Chon ngiu uhign mot sin pham thay san pham nay ean phai didu ehinh lai, tinh xée suat san pham nay duave sin suit boi day chuyén AL? Day chuyén A2? Day ehuyin AS? TH 2.14 Git thayét rng ta khong quan tam dén kha mang sinh hat vao ngay 29 thang 2. Gi sit mot ngwtdi dure lia chon agin nbien c6 kha rang da dite sink ra vao bat kY mot ngdy trong 365 nghy khée nha a. Chon ugiu nhien mii ngitti, tink xie suit tit ed du 6 mbites ugay sinh khae nhau. Tinh sie suat 66 ft nbat hai ngudi trong 10 ngudt nay 66 etm nga sinh b. Vai k (agudi) thay thé 10 (ngs vi) eam (a). Tim gia tri ke who nat trong d6 6 it mht 50-50 co hol mA hai hoze nhieu ngudi sé 66 cing ngay sinh hat ¢. Néu 10 ngudi diye ra chon nga nbien, tinh sae sniit e6 i nhat hai nguds 66 eimg ngay sinh TH 2.12 Mot phitsing php duge sit dung dé phan biet gita da granit (G) va da bazan (BB) fa kiém tra tia hing ngpai mot phan efia quang pho ning ligne mat ti phan xa tic bé mat da, Cho Ri, fp va Rs Ia eine do phd do duce 6 ba bude song khae nhau: thong thiting, di vida granite Ky < Ro< Bay trong khi Ry = Ry = W d6i vai bazan. Khi the hign phép do tit xa (sit dung may ay), len etia Ris 66 te nay sinh khida nay [a bazan hoge da granit, Ta ed ede thong tin tha duce nhit sau Trang 3XAC SUAT THONG KE UNG DUNG. Granite Reh eR Ri< Ree Ry Ry Ree fi Gia sit chon ngdu nbien mg 075 Pi < Ra) ng P{granite| {i < a. Chi ra phép do cho ra Ry < Ro Ry b. Tung tr ean boi phi ¢. Dita vio ede phan Ioai trong cfu (a.) Pibazan| ty < van S@ phan loa 1a oat granit hay’ bi a.) voi ede trving hyp: Py Trang Bazan 10 200% 0.25; Pibazan) tang da trong mot ving voi P(granite) ) Ry Ri < Ra). Nea eae ann? Ry Ree RR < Rye a (b.) tinh kha ning phan loai 1 sai [Gui f: Geo thé bi phan loai think Bova nguese lai] rang 32 2