KARANI JACKSON J77-11807-2017

KBS CAT 2

1. A potential investor has just observed that the dollar exchange rate is falling. He wants to know
whether to buy bonds. Run forward and backward chaining, and submit a report of your findings to
him, advising on the investment options.

Backward chaining

goal is to buy Bonds

Rule 6 fires therefore, Bond price decline becomes the new goal.

Rule 2 fires therefore, interest rates increase becomes the new goal.

Rule 5 fires therefore; the new goal is the dollar falls

I can recommend for him to buy the bonds because dollar exchange falling provides a great
environment for investing on the bonds.

Forward chaining

Exchange rate is falling

Rule 5 fires hence we conclude interest rates will increase

Rule 2 fires concluding that bond prices will decline

Therefore Rule 6 fires and the inference engine concluded to buy bonds.

Therefore he should buy bonds because with exchange rates falling leads =>R5 firing dollar falling=>R2
interest rates then increase=> leading to bond prices decling =>R6 firing which is buying bonds.

b) You are presented with a Prolog database that contains information about authors and books they
have written. Books are classified as either Fiction, Biography or Reference. Required: 2

i. Write a query to ask whether Tom wrote the fictional book called “Fiction stories” (2marks)

? write (Tom , Fiction stories)

ii. Write a query to find all books written by Harry Weinmann (2marks)

? Write (Harry Weinmann, X)

iii.. Formulate a rule to define nonfiction authors (2marks)

? Write (nonfiction authors, book, X) : - negate fiction (X)

2a) Discuss, giving reasons, why Case Based Reasoning Systems would be the technology of choice in
the implementation of the KAS.

Case based systems are intuitive be as they reflect a how people carry out their activities i.e work
secondly no knowledge must be elicited to create methods ad rules hence making development easier.

They are easier to maintain because case based reasoning systems learn by acquiring new cases through
use

Case based systems can provide solutions quickly because all it does is offer solutions offered by
previous similar cases thus making it effective and faster than other models.

Using case based reasoning systems it becomes very easy to find relevant and similar experience to a
particular situation because the retrieval mechanisms are very efficient as they can handle thousands of
cases in seconds

Case based reasoning system is adaptive since it can learn new cases therefore it can improve with time
and become more efficient

b) Highlight the inherent weaknesses one is likely to face when using Case Based Reasoning Systems

Case based reasoning systems (CBR) are based on unreliable evidence and adapting elements of one
case to another may result to complexity

Inaccuracies may come by as a result of adaptation of many elements of different cases that may cause
sophistication.

It can take large storage base for cases which incase it fails the whole system becomes unavailable

It strongly depends on accuracy

c) Discuss how you, a Knowledge Based Systems student, would enrich the KAS system to enhance its
capability and ensure agriculture contributes greatly to the economy. (5 marks)

Ensure that the farmers are able to access the system concurrently and ensure there are continuous
updates. The continuous updates we ensure that the users are well aware of the ongoing activities in
the agricultural sector this includes updates of cases
Ensure portability- ensure that the farmers using different platforms or gadgets can access the KBS i.e it
ensure its web based, available as a mobile app and other platforms.

Ensure availability and accessibility – ensuing that the system always available for the users ie farmers to
query and get their solutions to different questions and also ensure it is easily accessible.

Customization- tailoring the system to meet the needs of farmers based on their different sectors eg
have sections for livestock farmers and crop farmers for easier distinction of information.

Ensure that the system can be able to gather feedback from the farmers hence enabling easier
correction of areas that have issues and as a way of ensuring customer satisfaction so as to know where
to change where to improve and what to maintain.

First, the interviews and

interview parts become
comparable for a computer. It
would
be no longer necessary to
search manually in interview
documents, compare
documents by hand to find
connections or the most relevant
information. Second, the
reuse of the gained knowledge
and experience from Triad talks
will be much easier.
Using CBR, the effort to find
relevant and similar experience
to a given situation will
be significantly reduced. The
retrieval mechanisms of
structural CBR systems are
very efficient and can handle
thousands of cases in several
seconds. Third,
extracting one or more cases
from an interview, distributes
the knowledge over
several smaller units than a
huge text document. Different
aspects or stages of an
interview could be viewed
individually and could be
rated with different relevance.
This way, the knowledge
gained in one interview can be
ranked by importance and
usability for different
situations. Generating abstract
cases from the detailed ones,
enables a user to compare
situations and experiences on
higher level and sometimes
makes experiences comparable
in the first place. Fourth, the
combination of Triad
talks and CBR enables
connections between interviews
and interview parts and store
these connections. This way, a
user would have information
about additional cases
that may also be useful for a
given situation or cases that
other users of the CBR
system have used in the past
to solve a situation. Fifth, the
learning capabilities a
CBR system can provide. A
CBR system can learn new
cases, new similarity
measures and new adaptation
rules. This way, a CBR system
can improve over time
and become more efficient.
Given the feedback of the
users of a CBR system to
retrieved cases and presented
solutions, a CBR system can
adapt to new situations
First, the interviews and
interview parts become
comparable for a computer. It
would
be no longer necessary to
search manually in interview
documents, compare
documents by hand to find
connections or the most relevant
information. Second, the
reuse of the gained knowledge
and experience from Triad talks
will be much easier.
Using CBR, the effort to find
relevant and similar experience
to a given situation will
be significantly reduced. The
retrieval mechanisms of
structural CBR systems are
very efficient and can handle
thousands of cases in several
seconds. Third,
extracting one or more cases
from an interview, distributes
the knowledge over
several smaller units than a
huge text document. Different
aspects or stages of an
interview could be viewed
individually and could be
rated with different relevance.
This way, the knowledge
gained in one interview can be
ranked by importance and
usability for different
situations. Generating abstract
cases from the detailed ones,
enables a user to compare
situations and experiences on
higher level and sometimes
makes experiences comparable
in the first place. Fourth, the
combination of Triad
talks and CBR enables
connections between interviews
and interview parts and store
these connections. This way, a
user would have information
about additional cases
that may also be useful for a
given situation or cases that
other users of the CBR
system have used in the past
to solve a situation. Fifth, the
learning capabilities a
CBR system can provide. A
CBR system can learn new
cases, new similarity
measures and new adaptation
rules. This way, a CBR system
can improve over time
and become more efficient.
Given the feedback of the
users of a CBR system to
retrieved cases and presented
solutions, a CBR system can
adapt to new situations