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The China trade war is one thing Joe Biden won't be rushing to fix
Analysis by Jill Disis, CNN Business
Updated 1729 GMT (0129 HKT) January 21, 2021 

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Hong Kong (CNN Business) — US President Joe Biden is inheriting a tense and messy relationship
with China from his predecessor. Trump supporter Jared Kushner
asked how he'd feel if intervened when other
From a grueling trade war to a slew of sanctions on the country's most prominent tech he found out Trump… aides tried to get…
companies, the Trump administration spent the bulk of the last four years piling pressure on the
United States' biggest economic rival. Things only became more heated in recent weeks as
Washington slapped additional restrictions on Chinese business and investment.
Federal government Security unlikely to
Biden will strike a more predictable and diplomatic tone than former President Donald Trump. executes the first return to pre-riot form
woman in nearly 70… in a…
But analysts say that the new administration isn't likely to ease up on Beijing too much when it
comes to tech and trade.

"It is di cult to see a US reversal of the recent hawkish PAID CONTENT BY

trends in China policy, given the increasingly negative


views on China in the US," Sylvia Sheng, a global
strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, wrote in a
research note this week.

Biden's cabinet nominees are already starting to bolster


Related Article: Biden pledges America will that view. Janet Yellen, his pick to lead the Treasury
'engage with the world once again'
Department, promised Tuesday to take on China's
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"China is undercutting American companies by dumping products, erecting trade barriers, and
giving away subsidies to corporations," she told the Senate Finance Committee, echoing some
of the Trump administration's biggest criticisms of the world's second largest economy.

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The Trump administration agreed to what was billed as a "truce" with Beijing in early 2020, xfreehub waarde
almost two years after starting the trade war by slapping heavy tari s on Chinese goods. As part Hybride | Gesponsorde

of that deal, the two countries agreed to reduce some tari s and allow Beijing to avoid additional Advertenties

taxes on almost $160 billion of the country's goods. China also agreed to purchase $200 billion
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worth of US products over the next couple of years.

That agreement hasn't exactly played out as intended. As of November, China was on pace to
purchase only about half of that amount, according to an analysis from the Peterson Institute for
International Economics.
Bidens quickly fire Analysis: Donald
There are plenty of other loose ends, too. Trump never White House chief Trump has a money
usher installed by… problem
resolved some of Washington's biggest complaints
about Beijing, including its favoritism for state-owned
enterprises and his accusation that the country steals
US technology. (Chinese o cials have repeatedly
Ivanka Trump and Judge Jeanine lobbied
denied such allegations and argued that any tech Jared Kushner move Trump during his last
secrets handed over by American companies were part out of DC and lease… few hours in o ce…
Related Article: China is winning the trade
war and its exports have never been higher of agreed deals.)

"It might be tempting to go back to the good old days


and just tie back together those frayed trade links," wrote Roger Kay, a tech analyst at Endpoint
Technologies, in a report this week. But the US-China relationship was "one-sided," he added,
pointing out that Beijing has often demanded American companies partner with Chinese ones
and hand over large stakes in their operations, among other requirements.

While removing tari s on Chinese goods likely won't be a big priority for Biden, several experts —
and Yellen herself — said the new administration will want to make better use of its major
alliances to craft a more predictable trade strategy. It's hard, for example, to see Biden attacking
Washington's longtime European allies the way Trump did.

Biden "continues to say he wants to approach China via a coalition of other democracies, and
that will take time to build," said William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies who served for 15 years as president of the National Foreign Trade Council.
"The [China] relationship is too important to ignore, but I don't see him rushing into anything."

Navigating tech tensions


Biden will also have to navigate escalating tensions in technology and business. Those likely
aren't going to subside, given bipartisan support for the view that China poses a major threat to
US national security.
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After targeting telecoms equipment maker Huawei and social media platform TikTok, Trump
ratcheted up the pressure on China as his term wound down. During its last few weeks, his
administration imposed a series of harsh penalties on Chinese companies that will make it hard
for Biden to easily reset relations, even if he wanted to.

Chipmaker SMIC (SMICY), smartphone maker Xiaomi


and a handful of other firms have been banned from
accepting American investment, for example. And the
New York Stock Exchange recently halted trading in
three big Chinese telecom companies and several
other firms to comply with the investment ban, which
applies to companies that Washington deems to be
Related Article: China is winning the trade
war and its exports have never been higher a liated with or supportive of the Chinese military.

Some of Trump's recent actions — including an order


that would ban US transactions with some Chinese apps — were not fully implemented during
his time in o ce. Others, including his attempts to ban TikTok and Tencent's (TCEHY) WeChat
app, have been tied up in court. It's not clear whether Biden will try to see those measures
through.

But "even if there is a return to measured language and diplomacy, we could see more strategic
decoupling from Chinese digital companies" under Biden, Alex Capri, a research fellow at Hinrich
Foundation and a visiting senior fellow at National University of Singapore, told CNN Business last
week. He pointed to the possibility that Alibaba's (BABA) cloud services could face the kind of
global backlash that Huawei's 5G business has run into.

Some experts are more optimistic about how Biden


might proceed.

"We expect Biden's team to focus on domestic issues,"


Je eries analysts wrote in a Wednesday research note.
"Although Biden's cabinet candidates have talked
tough on China, we believe his strategy would be more
Related Article: Alibaba is facing an consensual and less disruptive to financial markets."
'existential crisis'
But others maintain that the prospect of worsening US-
China tensions still exist. The consultancy Eurasia
Group sees US-China tensions as one of the biggest risks of 2021, adding that Biden will likely
enlist allies from the European Union, Japan and India to push back on China.

"The new administration will have some successes — suspicion of China is broadly growing,"
wrote Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cli Kupchan in a report this month.

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