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10 11648 J Ijssam 20220703 13
10 11648 J Ijssam 20220703 13
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Received: June 2, 2022; Accepted: August 29, 2022; Published: September 16, 2022
Abstract: This paper introduces Euler’s explicit method for solving the numerical solution of the population growth model,
logistic growth model. The Euler method is a first-order method, which means that the local error (error per step) is
proportional to the square of the step size, and the global error (error at a given time) is proportional to the step size. Euler's
method is a numerical method that you can use to approximate the solution to an initial value problem with a differential
equation that can't be solved using a more traditional method, like the methods we use to solve separable, exact, or linear
differential equations. To validate the applicability of the method on the proposed equation, a model example has been solved
for different values of parameters. Using this balance law, we can develop the Logistic Model for population growth. For this
model, we assume that we add population at a rate proportional to how many are already there. The numerical results in terms
of point wise absolute errors presented in tables and graphs show that the present method approximates the exact solution very
well. We discuss and explain the solution of logistic growth of population, the kinds of problems that arise in various fields of
sciences and engineering. This study aims to solve numerically Euler’s method for solving using the Matlab.
Keywords: Euler’s Explicit Method, Logistic Growth Model, Least Square Method, 6th Order RK Method, MATLAB
birth rate may depend on the adult population size rather than Thus, Eq. (2) is called simplest growth model or closed model.
on total population size). Furthermore, the possibility that birth Now, solving for from Eq. (2) using separation of
or death rates may be influenced by the size of populations that variable as the following way.
interact with the population under study must also be Integrating both sides of Eq. (2), we get:
considered (competition, predation, mutualism) [3]. This paper
aimed to solve one of the population growth models which =
was proposed by Verhulst called Logistic Growth model
analytically and numerically using Euler explicit method and ln| | = + !, #ℎ ! ! $ .
compare the two solutions.
%&| | ' ()
=
2. Description of the Model ⇒ ( )= ) '
=+ '
(3)
Consider, ( ) be a population of the species at a time , then Where + is constant.
we can describe as the rate of change of population with respect Eq. (3) is called exponential model and it is the solution of
to time by the conservation equation mathematically, as: Eq. (2) and hence, we conclude that a population often
increases exponentially in its early stages.
= ℎ − ℎ + − Example 1: consider the following population growth that
describes the duplication of bacteria in a Laboratory. In this
But, in simplest model (closed model), there is no experiment, if we start with one cell of bacteria and if the cell
immigration and migration. Thus the birth (b) and death (d) doubles every minute. Then, the numbers of cell depend on a
terms are proportional to P. time . For example:
At t = 0, there is 1 cell, and the corresponding point is (0, 1).
= − =( − ) (1)
At t = 1, there are 2 cells, and the corresponding point is
Here, if we let − = , Biologically is known as the (1, 2).
intrinsic growth rate. At t = 2, there are 4 cells, and the corresponding point is
(2, 4).
= (2) At t = 3, there are 8 cells, and the corresponding point is (3,
8), etc. This relationship is summarized in the following Table 1.
Table 1. Relationship is summarized for time (t) and number of cells (p).
Time (t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ⋯ -
Time (t) in Minute
No. of cells (p) 1 = 20 2=21 4=22 8=23 16=24 32=25 64=26 ⋯ 2t
Thus, we can drive the formula to estimate the number of capacity because of limited resources and when a population
bacteria cells after a time minutes and let us introduce this becomes too large another model proposed by Verhulst called
formula as a function: the Logistic growth model as:
( )=2 (4) dP P
= kP 1 − (5)
Eq. (4) is the exponential function that describes the dt M
population growth of bacteria cell in a laboratory.
Where,
Alternatively we can derive Eq. (4) for the above example
P = p(t) is population size (density) at a time .
by using the given conditions:
k is positive intrinsic growth rate.
( ) = (0) = 1 = 0, ( ) = (1) = 2 =1 M is environmental carrying capacity.
Equilibrium point.
Now, we can rewrite Eq. (3) by solving for using The equilibrium points of the Logistic growth model is
(0) = 1 and for + using (1) = 2 as follow: obtained by making
P(0) = 1 = Ce k .0 = Ce0 = C.1 = C , P(1) = 2 = Cek dP P
= kP 1 − = 0
but C = 1 dt M
⇒ C =1 ⇒ 2 = e k = ln 2 = k P P
⇒ kP 1 − = 0 ⇒ kP = 0 or 1 − =0
( ) M M
t
Now, P(t ) = Ce kt = 1.eln 2.t = eln 2 = 2t
⇒ P = 0(b / c k > 0) or P = M
∴ P (t ) = 2t
Hence, = 0 and = 2 are the equilibrium points of the
Eventually, the population growth approaches its carrying logistic growth model.
International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics 2022; 7(3): 60-65 62
M dP A B 1 1
∫ P ( M − P ) = ∫ ( P + M − P )dP = ∫ P dP + ∫ M − P dP ⇒ ln P − ln M − P
So,
dP M dP
∫ P 1 − P = ∫ P ( M − P ) = ln P − ln M − P = kt + C
M
1000 1000 − 1
M −P P(50) = −0.05.(5)
, where A = = 999
ln = − kt − C = 1 + Ae 1
P
1000
M −P = 1.28366082
= e − kt −C = e−C .e− kt = Ae − kt , where A = e −C (6) 1 + 999.e −0.05.(5)
P
M −P Therefore, the number of population after 50 years will be
= Ae− kt 1.28366082.
P
II. Numerical Solution of Logistic Model by Euler’s
At = 0 , we have the initial population = 0 and Method
using these values we are going to find the value of 3 Consider the initial value problem:
from Eq. (6).
dP
= f (t , P ),
M M M − P0 dt
P(0) = − k .0
= P0 ⇒ = P0 ⇒ A = (8)
1 + Ae 1+ A P0 P
where f (t , P ) = kP 1 −
M
M M − P0
P (t ) = − kt
, where A = (7)
1 + Ae P0 P(0) = P0 (Initial conditions).
Here, our aim is to find ( ) and changes according
Example 2: Find a population in the ecosystem with k= to . Thus we can find the approximate (numerical)
0.05, carrying capacity 1000, and initial population 0 = 1 at solution of Eq. (8) using Euler’s explicit Method by taking
a time of 5 years. the step size ( ℎ ) between points which is chosen by the
Solution: using Eq. (7); user as follow:
M M − P0 ti +1 = ti + h
P (t ) = − kt
, where A = , where
1 + Ae P0
M = 1000, k = 0.05, P0 = 1 and t = 5 Pi +1 = Pi + hf (ti , Pi ) (9)
ti +1 = t + h, i = 0, 1, 2, 3, ...N + 1 and
N is the number of mesh po int s.
t0 = 0, t1 = t0 + 0.5 = 0.5, t2 = t1 + 0.5 = 1, ...,
here the number of steps N is given by
( tend − t0 )
=
( 5 − 0 ) = 10, so
for h = 0.5
h 0.5
there are 10 steps, P0 , P1 , P2 , ..., P10
Now, u sin g Eq.(9) :
P0 = P (t0 ) = P (0) = 1
1
P1 = P(t1 ) = P (0.5) = P0 + hf (t0 , P0 ) = 1 + 0.5 × 0.05 × 1 −
1000
≈ 1.024975
1.024975
P2 = P (t2 ) = P (1) = P1 + hf (t1 , P1 ) = 1.024975 + 0.5 × 0.05 × 1 −
1000
≈ 1.049949
1.049949
P3 = P(t3 ) = P (1.5) = P2 + hf (t2 , P2 ) = 1.049949 + 0.5 × 0.05 × 1 −
1000
≈ 1.074923
⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮
P10 = P(t10 ) = P(5)
≈1.2797
So, the population at a time of 5 years is When we implement all the above numerical methods,
P(5) = P10 = P9 + hf (t9 , P9 ) . After some successive using Euler’s explicit method in the help of MATLAB
approximations we get the population at a time of 5 years is software with ℎ = 0.5, 0 = 0, 5& = 5, 2 = 1000, 6 =
P(5) = P10 ≈ 1.2797 0.05, (0) = 0 = 1, then the result that we obtain was
III. Implementation of the Method Using MATLAB described by the following Table 2.
Software
Figure 2. The error of Euler’s explicit method for logistic growth model.
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