Answer1

Important terms and definitions related to the given numerical are explained below:-

Probability: Probability is an area of math that makes use of numbers to express how
uncertain an event's occurrence is. The probability of an event happening or not happening is
stated on a scale from 0 to 1. We say things like - 'It will probably rain heavily tomorrow, 'he
is likely to clear the interview', 'there is very little possibility of getting milk at this hour', and
'most certainly the price of gold will go high again'. In all of these statements, the term
probability takes words like chance, doubt, maybe, probable, and so on. Probability is the
capacity to anticipate an occurrence based on previous experiences.

Conditional Probability: The potential of an event or outcome occurring dependent on the

existence of a preceding event or outcome is known as conditional probability. It is computed
by multiplying the previous event's probability by the renewed likelihood of the next, or
conditional, occurrence.
Consider a an employee who misses office twice a week, except Sunday. If he is known to be
away from office on Tuesday, what are the chances that he will also be absent on Saturday
that week? It has been shown that in issues where the occurrence of one event influences the
occurrence of the next event, these examples of probability are known as conditional
probability.

Joint Probability: It is the probability when two events take place together e.g. Joint
probability of event A and event B is P (A and B). It is the probability of intersection of two
events for example for event A and event B happening together can be written as P(A«B).

Marginal probability: Marginal probability is the probability of an event occurring without regard
to any other events. It is calculated by summing the joint probabilities of the event and all possible
outcomes of the other events. For example, if event A has joint probabilities of 0.2 with event B and
0.3 with event C, the marginal probability of event A is 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5.

Prior probability: This is the likelihood that an event will occur before fresh information is
considered. If we were attempting to forecast the result of a coin flip, for instance, the prior
probability that it would land on heads would be 0.5.

Bayes' theorem: The Bayes Theorem is named after English mathematician Thomas Bayes,
who studied significantly in decision science, a branch of mathematics that deals with
probability. The Bayes Theorem is a popular tool in machine learning as well since it makes
class forecasts precise and accurate. It is used in calculating conditional probability. Let us
understand probability and it’s types before getting into numerical part of the question.
Bayes’ theorem is used to calculate conditional probability when joint probability is not
given.

The Bayes theorem can be used to resolve given problem. Now let's define:

A: the occurrence of being unhappy

B: The occurrence of periodontal disease

P(A|B), or the likelihood of being unhappy given periodontal disease, is what we are looking
for.
The Bayes theorem provides us with:

P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A)

P(B)

Given that periodontal disease affects 85% of those who are depressed, P(B|A) = 0.85. The
likelihood of having a negative mood in this community is 10%, thus P(A) equals 0.1.
Finally, we must determine P(B), or the likelihood that B has periodontal disease:

P(B) = P(B|A')*P(A') + P(B|A)*P(A).

where A' (not being in a foul mood) is the complement of A. It is stated that just 29% of
healthy individuals have periodontal disease.
hence P(B|A') = 0.29. Therefore:

P(B) = 0.29 * 0.9 + 0.85 * 0.1 = 0.316

We can now enter these values into Bayes' theorem as follows:

P(A|B) = 0.85 * 0.1 / 0.316 = 0.269

Therefore, the likelihood of being unhappy given periodontal disease is around 0.269, or
nearly 27%.
Here is the tree diagram for the problem: Saisha@123

Bad Mood (0.85)

Periodontal
Disease (0.15)
No Bad Mood
No Periodontal
(0.15 x 0.29 =
Disease (0.85)
0.0435)

Note: The probability of "No Bad Mood" given "Periodontal Disease" is calculated as the
product of the probabilities: P(Periodontal Disease) x P(No Bad Mood | Periodontal Disease)
= 0.15 x 0.29 = 0.0435.
Answer2

Simple regression analysis is a statistical method for examining and quantifying the
connection between two variables, the independent variable (also known as the predictor or
explanatory variable) and the dependent variable (also known as the response variable). The
objective is to comprehend the relationship between changes in the independent variable and
changes in the dependent variable.

Assuming a linear connection between the variables, we attempt to fit a straight line that best
reflects the relationship between the variables in basic regression analysis. On the basis of the
collected data, the line's intercept and slope are estimated.

The following are the main stages to doing a basic regression analysis:

->Data collection: Compile information on the independent and dependent variables that are
of interest. There should be paired values for both variables in every observation.

-> Data exploration: Data exploration involves examining the information to identify trends,
distributions, and probable outliers or missing values. This procedure aids in finding any
problems that could influence how the regression analysis is interpreted.

->Model fitting: To determine the nature of the relationship between the independent and
dependent variables, fit a regression model to the data. The goal of the model is to identify
the line that minimises the discrepancies between the anticipated and observed values.

->Model Evaluation: Evaluate the quality of the regression model and its capacity to describe
the connection between the variables. Statistical metrics including the R-squared value, the
standard error, and the statistical significance of the coefficients are examined in this process.
Mentioned terms are explained as follows: -

R-squared (𝑅 2 ): R-squared measures the percentage of the dependent variable's variation that
the independent variable can account for. It has a value between 0 and 1, with a greater
number denoting a better fit between the model and the data.

Standard error: The standard error calculates the average difference between the values that
were seen and those that were expected. A smaller standard error signifies a better model fit.

Coefficients: The estimations for the line's slope and intercept are provided by the regression
model. The slant coefficient addresses the adjustment of the reliant variable related with a
one-unit expansion in the free factor.

Statistical Significance: To see if the estimated coefficients are statistically significant,

hypothesis tests are carried out. T-tests or p-values are typically used to accomplish this. A
critical coefficient proposes that the connection between the factors is probably not going to
happen by some coincidence.

->Model Interpretation: Consider the problem or research topic when interpreting the
calculated coefficients and their importance. Identify the link between the variables and its
direction and magnitude.
It is essential to keep in mind that basic regression analysis makes a number of presumptions,
including linearity, error independence, constant variance, and residual normality. The
validity and interpretation of the results may be impacted by violations of these presumptions.
As a result, while evaluating the results, it is essential to carefully consider the analysis's
assumptions and constraints.

The EXCEL tables generated by the regression analysis are as follows:

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.110590242
R Square 0.012230202
Adjusted R -
Square 0.077567053
Standard Error 63.02825921
Observations 13

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 541.0547129 541.0547129 0.13619795 0.719095592
Residual 11 43698.17606 3972.56146
Total 12 44239.23077

Standard P-
Coefficients Error t Stat value
Intercept 365.02 40.40 9.04 0.00
No. of
posts per
day 4.06 11.01 0.37 0.72

The regression equation is found under coefficients at the bottom of ANOVA. The slope of
coefficient of X is 4.06 and the Y intercept is 365.02. The standard error of the estimate for
the host Instagram problem is given as the 4th statistic under regression statistics at the top of
the output, standard error = 63.02825921. The R square value is given as 0.012230202 on the
second line. The t test for the slope is found under t Stat near the bottom of ANOVA section
on the “number of posts per day” row, t=0.37. Next to the t Stat is the p-value, which is the
probability of the t statistic occurring by chance if the null hypothesis is true. For this slope,
the probability shown is 0.72. The ANOVA table is in the middle of the output with the F
value having the same probability as the t statistics,0.72, and equalling 𝑡 2 . The predicted
values and the residuals are shown in the residual output section.
The output will include the coefficients, standard error, t-values, p-values, and R-squared
value, which is a measure of how well the model fits the data.

• R-squared: This value indicates the proportion of variation in the number of

followers that is explained by the number of posts per day. A higher value indicates a
stronger relationship between the two variables.
• Intercept: This value represents the estimated value of the number of followers when
the number of posts per day is zero.
• Coefficients: These values represent the estimated slope of the regression line, which
indicates the change in the number of followers for a one-unit increase in the number
of posts per day.
• Standard error: This value indicates the amount of variation in the number of
followers that is not explained by the regression line.
• t-statistic: This value indicates the significance of the coefficients.
• p-value: This value indicates the probability of observing a t-statistic as extreme as
the one computed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

We can say that the regression model shows a positive relationship between the number of
posts per day and the number of Instagram followers. This means that businesses can increase
their Instagram following by posting more frequently. Acquisitions could be a strategic
option if a business wants to increase its reach and follower base quickly.

However, it is important to note that acquisitions can be costly and may not always result in a
positive outcome. Therefore, businesses should weigh the potential benefits and risks before
pursuing acquisitions as a strategic option.

Answer 3(a)

Given, mean life of a light bulb, µ = 120 days

Standard deviation, σ = 20 days
Number of light bulbs, n= 1000

We need to find the interval between replacements, x, such that no more than 10% of bulbs
expire before replacement.

Let us assume that the life of light bulbs is normally distributed, then we can use the Z-score
formula to find the required interval.

For a normally distributed population, the Z-score is given by:

Z = (X - µ) / σ

Were,
x = the value of the variable
µ = the mean
σ = standard deviation

Definition:
A z score is just the number of standard deviations from the mean. The z-score is determined
by subtracting the mean from the test value and dividing it by the standard value.

From the problem, we need to find the value of x such that 10% of the bulbs do not expire
before replacement. Therefore, we need to find the Z-score that corresponds to the 10th
percentile of the normal distribution.

Using a Z-score table,

the z-score for the 10th percentile is -1.28 (rounded to two decimal places).

Now, using the Z-score formula to find the corresponding value of x:

-1.28 = (x - 120) / 20

Multiplying both sides by 20, we get:

-25.6 = x - 120

Adding 120 to both sides, we get:

x = 94.4

Therefore, the interval between replacements should be 94.4 days if not more than 10% of
bulbs should expire before replacement.

Answer 3(b) To calculate the average age of migrants for both categories of gender, we need
to calculate the weighted average of each age group, where the weights are the number of
migrants in each age group. The formula for weighted average is:

weighted average = (sum of (mid-point of age group * number of migrants)) / total

number of migrants

Total number of Male migrants = 14,55,99,803

Total number of Female migrants = 30,85,91,233

Next, we can calculate the total weighted age for each gender by multiplying the number of
migrants in each age group by the midpoint of the age range.

Midpoint of age range Midpoint of age range x Midpoint of age range x

No. of males No. of females
 2 19669476 18255950

7 76716542 69706413

12 149101296 137414724

17 215623461 280817322

22 290340226 740486252

27 352220778 1013094459

32 388288288 1097155072

37 446221110 1223030819

42 457806006 1144971912

47 456089222 1102042652

52 412887904 927835272

57 351219978 865995870

62 334907632 889537064

67 247034494 679460132

72 191694312 506428416

77 103301044 268961077

82.5 120556920 350929837.5

4613678689 11316123244

Using formula, we can calculate the average age for both male and female migrants in each
age group:

Average age for males = 4613678689 / 14,55,99,803 = 31.69 years

Average age for females = 11316123244/ 30,85,91,233 = 36.67 years

Interpretation:

Female migrants have a greater average age than male migrants, indicating that the two
genders may have distinct movement patterns or motives for moving. Furthermore, female
migrants tend to be more evenly distributed across the age categories, whereas male migrants
appear to be concentrated in the younger age groups. These findings may have implications
for policymakers and service providers who oversee addressing the needs and concerns of
migratory communities.
It is unusual for migratory groups to have a larger proportion of young adult men. This might
be due to a variety of factors such as economic prospects, looking for work, or pursuing
educational options in the host nation. As a result, the average age of male migrants may be
on the younger side, often ranging from late teens to early forties.

Female migrants may have a greater age distribution than male migrants. Women travel for a
variety of reasons, including family reunification, marriage, education, or career. As a result,
the average age of female migrants may vary greatly, ranging from late teens to early
twenties to late twenties to forties or beyond.