15 Simple linear regression (HL only)

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1 a Linear regression refers to statistical techniques used to map the relationship between
two variables, such as advertising expenditure and sales revenue.
Award 1 mark for a limited response that shows some understanding.
Award 2 marks for a clear and accurate definition, similar to the example above.
b

There is likely to be a negative correlation (relationship) between the price of Nike sports
apparel and the demand for, or sales of, Adidas sports apparel. As the two brands are
regarded as substitute products, all things being equal, an increase in Nike’s prices will
tend to cause some of its customers to switch to buying the rival products from Adidas.
Mark as a 2 + 2.
Award up to 2 marks for an accurately drawn and fully labelled diagram, including the
accurate labelling of axes, which shows understanding of the demands of the question.
Award up to a further 2 marks for an accurate explanation of the diagram, with reference
to both businesses mentioned in the question (Nike and Adidas).
Accept diagrams that use the variables in reverse to the example diagram above.
2 a A scatter diagram shows the relationship between two variables by plotting the values of
one variable on the horizontal axis (x-axis) and the other variable on the vertical axis (y-
axis).
Award 1 mark for a limited response that shows some understanding.
Award 2 marks for a clear and accurate description, similar to the example above.

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 b

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Award 1–2 marks for a diagram that shows some understanding of the demands of the
question but there are errors or omissions.
Award 3–4 marks for an accurate scatter diagram that represents the data in the table,
including the accurate labelling of axes. Allow up to one error or omission for 3 marks.
c The scatter diagram suggests there is a strong relationship between advertising spending
and sales revenue. The correlation is positive because advertising expenditure and sales
revenue move in the same direction. This suggests a strong correlation, or relationship,
between the two variables.
Award 1 mark for a limited response that shows some understanding.
Award 2 marks for a clear and accurate comment, similar to the example above.

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3 a

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Award 1–2 marks for a diagram that shows some understanding of the demands of the
question. There are errors and omissions, which possibly include the inaccurate labelling
of the axes and/or the data points not being accurately plotted.
Award 3–4 marks for a diagram that shows good understanding of the demands of the
question. There are no errors or omissions. The labelling of the axes is accurate and all
the data points are accurately plotted.
Accept diagrams that use the variables in reverse to the example diagram above.
b Award 1 mark for a line of best fit that is drawn accurately, similar to that shown above.
c A line of best fit is a statistical technique that involves drawing a line through the various
data points plotted on a scatter diagram that best expresses the relationship between the
variables being measured.
Award 1 mark for a limited response that shows some understanding.
Award 2 marks for a clear and accurate description, similar to the example above.
d The data and line of best fit suggest there is a strong correlation between the length of
teaching service at a school and the school’s average IB Diploma Programme exam
score. However, the correlation does not explain causation. Note that extrapolating the
trend would suggest that any school that can retain its teachers for an average of 14 years
will get 45 points in the Diploma Programme exam (which is highly unrealistic, of
course).
Other possible impacts on exam results could include an explanation of:
• different class sizes
• breadth and depth of the different subjects offered

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 • whether the schools are highly selective (students being admitted to the school based

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on entrance exams) or fully comprehensive
• consideration of candidates who may have special learning needs
• consideration of the different cultures, environments and values of schools
• the curriculum priorities of different schools, including different teaching and
learning priorities
• different approaches to behaviour and inclusion (of staff and students)
• budgetary considerations, such as the amount of spending on training and
professional development
• the level of staff morale and student motivation.
Accept any other reasonable factor that is explained in the context of the given question.
Award 1–2 marks for a limited response that shows some understanding of the demands
of the question.
Award 3–4 marks for a clear and accurate answer that shows good understanding of the
demands of the question. There is appropriate use of terminology throughout the
response.
4 a

Award 1–2 marks for a diagram that shows some understanding of the demands of the
question. There are errors and omissions, which possibly include the inaccurate labelling
of the axes and/or the data points not being accurately plotted.
Award 3–4 marks for a diagram that shows good understanding of the demands of the
question. There are no errors or omissions. The labelling of the axes is accurate and all
the data points are accurately plotted.

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 Accept diagrams that use the variables in reverse to the example diagram above.

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b Award 1 mark for a line of best fit that is drawn accurately, similar to that shown above.
c The line of best fit shows about 120 units of ice cream are likely to be sold.
Award 1 mark for the correct answer.
5 a Extrapolation is a forecasting technique that makes future predictions of sales (in units
or dollars) based on trends identified from using past data. This is done by extending the
line of best fit for a future time period.
Award 1 mark for a limited response that shows some understanding.
Award 2 marks for a clear and accurate definition, similar to the example above.
b An example is shown below. Award 1 mark for appropriate axes labels (the sales
revenue axis should be in an appropriate currency) and 1 mark for showing the trend in
actual sales and extrapolated trend line.

c Possible limitations could include an explanation of the following:

• The major problem with using extrapolation is that the technique assumes the future
looks like the past. Past data and trends do not necessarily reveal what will happen in
the future, especially if the business operates at a fast pace in a changing
environment.
• The further into the future that trends are extrapolated, the less accurate any
prediction is likely to be, simply because there is so much scope for so many things
to change.
• Extrapolated values can be unreliable, especially if the regression line shows there
are disparities and irregularities in the existing data sets.
Accept any other limitation of using extrapolation to predict a firm’s sales revenue
figures.
Award 1 mark for a valid limitation and 1 mark for an appropriate explanation.

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