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Special Issue: Agent Based Simulation of Complex Social Systems

Adolfo López-Paredes, Bruce Edmonds and Franziska Klugl
SIMULATION 2012 88: 4
DOI: 10.1177/0037549711433392

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Editorial
Special Issue: Agent Based Simulation
of Complex Social Systems
Adolfo López-Paredes, Bruce Edmonds, and Franziska Klugl
Whilst simulation has been common in other areas for some
time, it has only gained significant prominence in the social
sciences during the last two decades. In 1988, Ostrom called
simulation ‘‘The Third Symbol System’’ in the context of
social psychology. By this she meant that simulation stood
alongside natural language and mathematics as a way to rep-
resent theories about social cognition. Later, in 1997,
Axelrod stated that simulation was a third way of doing sci-
ence, in particular social science. In the last decade, a partic-
ular kind of simulation, agent-based simulation, has
emerged. This type of simulation is characterized by the
existence of many ‘‘agents’’ who interact with each other
with little or no central direction (Gilbert, 2005). The results
of an agent-based simulation emerge from the interactions
between these agents in sometimes unpredictable and unex-
pected ways. For social scientists, Axtell (2000) provided
some reasons to use agents and agent-based modeling. In
particular, he proposed the use of agent-based computational
models to study those problems for which writing down
equations was not a useful activity, as the only way to
explore rigorously the underlying social processes. Epstein
(2007) argues that the generative approach via agent based
computational modeling is essential for understanding com-
plex social phenomena. This development parallels a growth
in interest in complex social systems within ‘‘Complexity
Science’’ and ‘‘Multi-Agent Systems’’.
Agent- and Individual-based1 social simulation has pro-
duced paradigmatic examples of complex systems. While
the physical world is considered composed of systems that
are linear or approximately linear, it is evident that human
societies, economics, institutions and organizations display
a complexity that is qualitatively different from linear sys-
tems. In other words, the behavior of the system as a whole
cannot be determined by partitioning it and understanding
the behavior of the resultant parts (a classic strategy of
physical sciences). A consequence of this complexity is
that classic analytic approaches are usually infeasible in
such cases, without the use of stringent assumptions to
simplify them. Thus there is now a branch of physics,
called socio-physics that investigates such non-linear sys-
tems of social phenomena using individual-based simula-
tion alongside other analytic techniques.
From the point of view of computer scientists, Multi-
Agent Systems, which is rooted in a social interpretation of
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Simulation
Simulation: Transactions of the Society for
Modeling and Simulation International
88(1) 4–6
Ó 2012 The Society for Modeling and
Simulation International
DOI: 10.1177/0037549711433392
sim.sagepub.com
software objects2, has developed as an engineering strategy
for producing complex distributed systems. Many of the
issues that are relevant to human society turn out to also be
highly pertinent in such systems, including: coordination,
trust, cheating, failure, network structure and the meaning
of communication. Sycara (1998) presented agent-based
systems technology as a new paradigm for conceptualizing,
designing and implementing software agents. Some of the
issues and challenges raised there still stand unsolved. For
instance, one of the goals was ‘‘to design mechanisms for
self-interested agents such that if agents follow these
mechanisms, the overall system behavior will be accepta-
ble, which is called mechanism design’’. This failure is not
surprising for someone used to social systems. This illus-
trates that the engineering of distributed computer systems
has still a lot to learn from agent-based social simulation.
With this interlinked perspective, agent-based simula-
tion tools have been developed to deal with the complexity
of the dynamics of complex social systems. An
agent-based simulation executes several agents, which can
be of different types, in an observable environment where
agents’ behavior can be monitored. Observations on agents
can assist in the analysis of the evolution of their mental
state (that is, individual values and reasons to act), the col-
lective behavior and the general trends of system evolu-
tion. This provides a platform for empirical studies of
social systems evolution, in vitro3. Such simulations allow
researchers to perform theoretical experiments and thus
explore social processes in a way that would not be feasi-
ble otherwise. Many new systems to facilitate this now
exist, including Swarm, MASON, Repast, Netlogo,
AnyLogic, GoldSim, and DEVS.
Agent-based simulation has recently started to seep into
policy-related domains. Recent papers in journals like The
Economist (2010): ‘‘Agents of Change’’, and Nature
(Farmer & Foley, 2009): ‘‘The economy needs agent-
based modeling’’; urge economists to adopt agent-based
simulation as the best way to improve their models to
understand real complex systems. The OECD Global
Science Forum proposed agent-based simulation as a pro-
mising methodology in the report: ‘‘Applications of
Complexity Science for Public Policy new tools for find-
ing unanticipated consequences and unrealized opportuni-
ties (2009)’’.
López-Paredes et al.
The eight papers in this special issue will contribute to
these developments. They lie at the crossroads between
computational science, complexity science, distributed
computer science and policy modeling. In their different
ways they all represent different responses to the severe
challenge that complex social systems pose.
Troitzsch’s paper on interactions in human social sys-
tems proposes a framework for the formalization of mes-
sages and communications. The author suggests a number
of requirements for messages and communications in
simulation models. These requirements are important for
future theoretical research but also for the integration of
human behavior within systems of systems.
Giardini and Conte argue that gossip can be used for
social control more efficiently than punishment.
Reputation has a central role in this paper, and is closely
tied to gossip. The authors show the applicability of the
REPAGE platform implementing a case study simulation,
and then present a simulation model for evaluating the
efficiency of gossip as a mechanism for social control,
called SOCRATE.
Rouchier and Tanimura demonstrate that the distribu-
tion of confidence within a group has a major impact on
the speed and quality of collective learning. In particular,
a series of simulation experiments show that a small num-
ber of overconfident agents can prevent the whole group
from learning properly.
Malleson et al describe a case study where they com-
bine real data and existing theories to produce an agent-
based model which studies crime patterns in a particular
locality. The model uses geo-referenced datasets and has
been calibrated and validated with respect to the city of
Leeds (UK). The authors review three behavioral frame-
works: BDI (Beliefs Desires Intentions), BBAI (Behavior
Based Artificial Intelligence) and PECS (Physical
Conditions, Emotional State, Cognitive Capabilities and
Social Status), and they argue the benefits of the latter one
as a framework for representing agent behavior.
Celik et al describe the use of agent based models in
project-based organizations to analyze and assess human
resources assignments. The authors have calibrated the
model against a real non-profit organization (the Kuali
Foundation). Their model defines each agent within a
multi-dimensional metric based on mutual trustworthiness,
influence, reputation and proximity in order to determine
the equivalence values of each employee within his/her
own social network.
Kim et al describe a methodology for comparing differ-
ent simulation models. It argues from the facts that the
modeling process requires abstraction, and the final user
needs to be confident about the accuracy of the estimates
and the quality of the simulation models. This methodolo-
gical paper is applicable to the process of replicating and
validating agent-based simulation models.
Topcuoglu et al describe some applications which are
appropriate for creating and evaluating distributed sensor
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5
networks. They present a 3D simulation environment which
allows users to introduce weather conditions, object occlu-
sions, etc. Their provision of both an editor to introduce the
behavior and location for each sensor (agent), and an infer-
ence engine to evaluate the performance of the system is one
that could be useful for agent-based simulations in general.
Ma et al describe the use of detailed traffic-simulation
software called PARAMICS to evaluate incident manage-
ment strategies over a wide territory (South Carolina,
USA). The authors conclude that the integrated application
of intelligent transportation system technologies signifi-
cantly reduced incident duration and total vehicle hours of
travel when an incident occurred.
Notes
1. The difference between agent-based simulation and
individual-based simulation is that in the former it makes
sense to interpret the behavior of each agent as being the
result of some cognition, whilst the later implies a physics-
like simplicity of its parts. In practice the two are often
indistinguishable.
2. Multi-agent systems is basically an object-oriented approach
where the software ‘‘objects’’ are programmed with human-
like capabilities, such as autonomy, reasoning, learning etc.
The first general object-oriented programming language,
Simula 67 was based on Simula 1 which was used for model-
ling and producing distributed social systems such as airports
or bureaucracies.
3. The in vivo/in vitro distinction is well established in bio-
chemistry. ‘‘In vivo’’ is what happens in real cells, ‘‘in vitro’’
is what happens in test-tube experiments. Agent-based simu-
lations are the in vitro equivalents of the full in vivo com-
plexity of real social systems.
References
1. Axelrod, R. (1997). Advancing the Art of Simulation in the
Social Sciences. in Rosario Conte, Rainer Hegselmann and
Pietro Terna (eds.), Simulating Social Phenomena (Berlin:
Springer, 1997), pp. 21–40.
2. Axtell, R. (2000). Why Agents? On the Varied Motivations
for Agent Computing in the Social Sciences. Center on Social
and Economic Dynamics, Working Paper No. 17, November.
3. Epstein, J. (2007). Generative social science. Studies in Agent-
Based Computational Modeling. Princeton University Press.
4. Farmer, J.D. & Foley, D. (2009). The economy needs agent-
based modelling. Nature 460, 685–686 (5 August 2009)
5. Gilbert, Nigel. (2005). Agent-based social simulation:
Dealing with complexity. http://www. complexityscience.org/
NoE/ABSS-dealing%20with%20complexity-1-1.pdf
6. Moss, S. (2002). Policy Analysis from First Principles.
Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences 99
(Suppl. 3): 7267–7274.
7. OECD Global Science Forum (2009). ‘‘Applications of
Complexity Science for Public Policy new tools for finding
unanticipated consequences and unrealized opportunities’’.
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/44/41/43891980.pdf
8. Sycara, K. (1998). Multiagent Systems. AI Magazine Volume
19 Number 2, 79–92
6 Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 88(1)
Adolfo López-Paredes
INSISOC
Universidad de Valladolid
Escuela de Ingenierias Industriales Paseo
del Cauce
Valladolid, Spain
Email: www.insisoc.org
Bruce Edmonds
Centre for Policy Modelling
Manchester Metropolitan University
Manchester, UK.
Email: bruce.edmonds.name
Franziska Klugl
Modeling and Simulation Research Center,
School of Science and Technology
Örebro University
S-701 82 Örebro
Sweden
Email: franziska.klugl@oru.se
Author biographies
Adolfo López-Paredes is a full professor of Managerial
Economics at the University of Valladolid (Spain). He is co-
founder of INSISOC (www.insisoc.org). His main research
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topics are Engineering Complex Systems and the Development
of Decision Support Tools for managers and policy makers. He
has a solid expertise in Agent-Based Modeling of real complex
systems (smart grids, firms and markets engineering).
Bruce Edmonds is Director of the Centre for Policy
Modelling (CPM) at the Manchester Metropolitan University,
UK. His first degree was in mathematics, followed by a
Doctorate on ’Syntactic Measures of Complexity’ at the
University of Manchester, UK. He has been active in agent-
based social simulation and complexity science since 1994.
Since then, with his colleague Scott Moss, he has built up the
CPM into one of the leading centres for social simulation in
the world. He is interested in: complexity, philosophy of sci-
ence, methodology of social simulation, social intelligence,
socially-inspired computing and context.
Franziska Klügl is a full professor in Information Technology
at Örebro University where she heads the Multi-agent Simulation
Group at the Modeling and Simulation Research Center. She
holds a PhD in Computer Science from the University of
Würzburg, Germany. Her research interests are in methodologies
and tools for agent-based simulation including topics such as
learning and adaptive agents or visual programming for model-
ing. The approaches are tested in various domains, with a recent
focus on geo-spatial application areas.