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Statistical PERT Normal 5.1.2
Statistical PERT Normal 5.1.2
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) is a freely licensed, probabilistic, estimation technique. Use Statistical PERT
to estimate uncertainties that have bell-shaped risk properties, like: task duration, work effort,
revenue, expenses, agile story points, project portfolios, event attendance, and more.
Statistical PERT® Normal Edition uses Excel's two normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and
NORM.INV to model mild-to-moderately skewed uncertainties. To model a wider range of
bell-shaped uncertainties, try Statistical PERT® Beta Edition which uses Excel's two beta
distribution functions, BETA.DIST and BETA.INV. It's freely licensed, too!
This example workbook is intended to help you quickly get started. You can also download
a Quick Start guide for Statistical PERT® Normal Edition. The Quick Start guide explains the
essential things you need to know to use this Statistical PERT® Normal Edition spreadsheet.
Statistical PERT downloads share the same three steps for making a probablistic estimate:
If you have any questions, suggestions, or comments, I'd love to hear from you!
Contact me!
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
George E. P. Box, British statistician (1919-2013)
Plus:
- New! Some tri-color bell-curve charts have a new zoom feature to resize the chart
- Enhanced! Bell-curve charts use double the data points (200) for smoother graphics
- Additional minor tweaks throughout the spreadsheet
- Indicate whether you're a Frequentist or a Bayesian (if you care at all!)
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition README for Version 5
Statistical PERT® Normal Edition Version 5 introduces a dynamic, cumulative flow diagram (CFD) worksheet that
any team can use to monitor work that flows through their unique process. The "SPERT® Normal - CFD Charts"
worksheet exposes five process steps (Backlog, Developing, Testing, Deploying, Done), but you can unhide columns
H-V and include up to fifteen more process steps for a total of 20. You can rename any process step to your liking.
Importantly, on the CFD worksheet, the sample data in the Excel Row #6 cannot be deleted without breaking the
dynamically-controlled cell ranges that are used to create the CFD charts. You can overwrite the sample data
with your own data, but you should not delete the sample data in Row #6. (If you accidentally delete the
Row #6 data, just replace it with numeric data to restore the normal functionality of that worksheet).
Another new worksheet in Version 5 is the "SPERT® Normal Scheduler" worksheet. This worksheet was originally
introduced in Version 3 of Statistical PERT® Beta Edition, but it's now included in the Normal Edition, too. The
SPERT Scheduler in this spreadsheet uses the normal distribution to model project task or activity uncertainty.
In this worksheeet, you name only the critical path tasks (or activities) for your project, model each duration
uncertainty, and then select the confidence level you want for each task (or activity) in your project. The SPERT
Scheduler will find the duration estimate that matches your desired confidence level, and create the start and
finish dates for the critical path. Note that this worksheet was built from the "Mixed entry" worksheet.
Statistical PERT® Normal Edition Version 4 introduced a real Monte Carlo simulation worksheet that
will sample a single, random variable for 10,000 trials using an Excel data table (see the SPERT® Normal
MC Simulation tab). That is the only SPERT worksheet that uses Monte Carlo simulation to construct
probabilistic estimates using Excel's normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and NORM.INV.
Because SPERT now includes a data table to support Monte Carlo simulation, this SPERT workbook
may not have the same, speedy performance as it did in Version 3 and earlier versions. If you find that
this workbook's calculations are sluggish, check the Excel setting for "Calculation Options" under the
Formulas tab on the Excel Ribbon and select the option, "Automatic Except for Data Tables." This will
avoid SPERT performing a 10,000 trial simulation everytime you interact with any data entry cells
on any worksheet. If you want to use the Monte Carlo simulation, press F9 to execute a simulation
of 10,000 trials (this is only meaningful with the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation worksheet).
You may also delete the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation worksheet if you don't want to use Monte Carlo
simulation, or if you want to reduce the file size of this SPERT spreadsheet file.
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
TL;DR
On the Excel Ribbon, look for the "Calculation"
group under the "Formulas" menu selection.
Then, click the "Calculation Options" button and
select "Automatic Except for Data Tables" to
increase the speed and calculation performance
of all Version 5 SPERT worksheets.
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
↑ Rows 36 through 138 are hidden; they are used to create the bell-curve Sparkline
uper Simple SPERT® Click
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nder the terms of the
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istered trademarks. If you modify
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der the GNU General Public License.
ULAR PURPOSE.
n mark? Check your 3-point entry to see if it's correct.
RT won't work well for this estimate scenario.
Y the Most Likely outcome really is
ainty using the normal distribution
ur minimum and maximum estimates
de area of the bell-curve
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition for Beginners
First, enter a three-point estimate for any uncertainty
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240 Use SPERT to estimate task duration, work effort, agile story point
Validate your bell-shaped uncertainty A green checkmark means you have correctly entered
A green or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell
This normal distribution graph shows the bell-shaped curve for your uncertainty
Enter a Planning Estimate and see its likelihood of occurrence under SPERT
Or, use the (1-Point entry) worksheet, where two heuristics automatically calculate the Minimum
-50% << Heuristics >> 100% (You can change the dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240
Try selecting a different dropdown percentage by clicking above the Minimum and Maximum cell headings,
and see the value changes for the minimum and maximum point-estimates in the green-shaded cells.
The rest of the (1-Point entry) worksheet works exactly the same way as the (3-Point entry) worksheet.
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
↑ Rows 62 through 164 are hidden; they are used to create the bell-curve Sparkline
on for Beginners Click for help
stimate task duration, work effort, agile story points, cost, revenue,
reen checkmark means you have correctly entered minimum, most likely and maximum point-estimates.
reen or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell-shaped uncertainty. If it's red, try changing your three-point estimate.
The PERT Mean is calculated using the PERT formula: (Minimum + 4(Most Likely) + Maximum) / 6
Curve The bell-shaped curve will change depending on your 3-point estimate and your sub
haped curve for your uncertainty Note: Even if your 3-point estimate indicates skewing, SPERT Normal Edition fits yo
SPERT SD
Standard Deviation for your uncertainty 36
You don't have to know this or do anything with this, but SPERT need
ties from either the left-side area or right-side area Show Left-Side Area Read the red text below to see how th
atisticalpert.com
PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
curve Sparkline
ee-point estimate.
your 3-point estimate and your subjective judgment about the Most Likely outcome (above)
wing, SPERT Normal Edition fits your uncertainty into a normally-distributed, bell-shaped curve
d the red text below to see how this choice affects the SPERT estimates
te: This is a cumulative probability, so the SPERT Probability is the likelihood that
Planning Estimate will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN the uncertainty's true value*
is is true if you choose Show Left-Side Area in the dropdown control above. If you choose Show Right-Side Area,
ll see the SPERT Probability that your Planning Estimate will be EXCEEDED by the uncertainty's true value.
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
176 167 160 154 149
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition 1-Point Entry
-50% << Heuristics >> 100%
ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean
1 60 120 240 130
2 60 120 240 130
3 60 120 240 130
4 60 120 240 130
5 60 120 240 130
6 60 120 240 130
7 60 120 240 130
8 60 120 240 130
9 60 120 240 130
10 60 120 240 130
600 1,200 2,400 1,300
873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,44
1,44
1,4
11
873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,44
1,44
1,4
11
Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area
Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
High confidence 25 150 78.4%
Medium-high confidence 31 150 73.9%
Medium confidence 36 150 71.1%
Medium-low confidence 42 150 68.2%
Low confidence 49 150 65.8%
Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 142 1,500 92.0%
After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area to calculate the
probability of all uncertainties together. This is especially useful for creating a
forecast for an entire project, for example.
Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval in cell D108, and/or
choose the confidence lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.
198
93
1,206
9202
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
198
93
1,206
9202
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
Maximum columns
tcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
atisticalpert.com
PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 50%
114 146 143 141 139 130
107 153 149 145 142 130
97 163 156 151 147 130
90 170 162 156 151 130
84 176 167 160 154 130
76 184 174 166 158 130
67 193 181 171 163 130
57 203 189 178 168 130
48 212 196 184 173 130
36 224 206 192 179 130
776 1,824 1,723 1,644 1,576 1,300
873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,43
1,44
1,4
11
To use this template:
1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence colum
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic
Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area
Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
High confidence 25 150 78.4%
Medium-high confidence 31 150 73.9%
Medium confidence 36 150 71.1%
Medium-low confidence 42 150 68.2%
Low confidence 49 150 65.8%
Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 142 1,500 92.0%
After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area to calculate the
probability of all uncertainties together. This is especially useful for creating a
forecast for an entire project, for example.
Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval in cell D108, and/or
choose the confidence lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.
189
85
1,198
0193
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
Maximum columns
tcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
atisticalpert.com
PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
114 146 143 141 139 137
107 153 149 145 142 139
97 163 156 151 147 143
90 170 162 156 151 146
84 176 167 160 154 149
76 184 174 166 158 152
67 193 181 171 163 156
57 203 189 178 168 160
48 212 196 184 173 163
36 224 206 192 179 168
776 1,824 1,723 1,644 1,576 1,514
701
97
1,710
3706
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Mixed entry
-50% < Heuristics > 100%
ID Min % Min point Minimum Most Likely Maximum Max point Max %
1 60 120 240
2 60 120 240
3 60 120 240
4 -10% 108 120 144 20%
5 -25% 90 120 160 160
6 40 40 120 200 200
7 80 80 120 210 75%
8 60 120 240
9 60 120 240
10 60 120 240
678 1,200 2,154
Between a lowerbound value of 1,106 Miss the pie Choose the confidence yo
in cell F108, and/or choos
and an upperbound value of 1,438 chart? Press upperbound thresholds in
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart
884
888
892
895
899
903
907
911
915
919
923
927
930
934
938
942
946
950
954
958
961
965
969
973
977
981
985
989
993
996
1,000
1,004
1,008
1,012
1,016
1,020
1,024
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,039
1,043
1,047
1,051
1,055
1,059
1,062
1,066
1,070
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,086
1,090
1,093
1,097
1,101
1,105
1,109
1,113
1,117
1,121
1,124
1,128
1,132
1,136
1,140
1,144
1,148
1,152
1,156
1,159
1,163
1,167
1,171
1,175
1,179
1,183
1,187
1,190
1,194
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,214
1,218
1,222
1,225
1,229
1,233
1,237
1,241
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,256
1,260
1,264
1,268
1,272
1,276
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
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1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,41
1,4
1,1
884
888
892
895
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903
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973
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1,000
1,004
1,008
1,012
1,016
1,020
1,024
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,039
1,043
1,047
1,051
1,055
1,059
1,062
1,066
1,070
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,086
1,090
1,093
1,097
1,101
1,105
1,109
1,113
1,117
1,121
1,124
1,128
1,132
1,136
1,140
1,144
1,148
1,152
1,156
1,159
1,163
1,167
1,171
1,175
1,179
1,183
1,187
1,190
1,194
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,214
1,218
1,222
1,225
1,229
1,233
1,237
1,241
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,256
1,260
1,264
1,268
1,272
1,276
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,41
1,4
1,1
Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area
Planning SPERT
PERT Mean Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
130 Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
130 Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
130 High confidence 25 150 78.4%
122 Medium-high confidence 10 10 150 99.7%
122 Medium confidence 14 150 97.9%
120 Medium-low confidence 38 150 78.8%
128 Low confidence 36 150 72.9%
130 Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
130 Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
130 Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
1,272 © 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 129 1,500 96.1%
After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area
to calculate the probability of all uncertainties together. This
is especially useful for creating a forecast for an entire
project, for example.
1,272
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6268
1,276
64
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
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1,338
1,342
1,346
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1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,416
1,420
1,423
1,427
1,431
1,435
1,439
1,443
1,447
1,451
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,470
1,474
1,478
1,482
1,485
1,489
1,493
1,497
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,517
1,520
1,524
1,528
1,532
1,536
1,540
1,544
1,548
1,551
1,555
1,559
1,563
1,567
1,571
1,575
1,579
1,583
1,586
1,590
1,594
1,598
1,602
1,606
1,610
1,614
1,617
1,621
1,625
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,641
1,645
1,649
1,652
1,656
1,660
1,272
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6268
1,276
64
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,416
1,420
1,423
1,427
1,431
1,435
1,439
1,443
1,447
1,451
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,470
1,474
1,478
1,482
1,485
1,489
1,493
1,497
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,517
1,520
1,524
1,528
1,532
1,536
1,540
1,544
1,548
1,551
1,555
1,559
1,563
1,567
1,571
1,575
1,579
1,583
1,586
1,590
1,594
1,598
1,602
1,606
1,610
1,614
1,617
1,621
1,625
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,641
1,645
1,649
1,652
1,656
1,660
cations
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Independence Day (USA) 7/4/2025
Labor Day (USA) 9/1/2025
Columbus Day (USA) 10/13/2025 161
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Veterans Day (USA, observed) 11/11/2025
Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/27/2025 To use this template:
Day after Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/28/2025 1) Create a 3-point estima
Christmas Break 12/22/2025 2) Render a subjective jud
Christmas Break 12/23/2025 3) Examine the SPERT pro
Christmas Break 12/24/2025 Note: NORM.DIST and
Christmas Break 12/25/2025
Christmas Break 12/26/2025 Optionally:
Christmas Break 12/29/2025 Enter any desired estimat
Christmas Break 12/30/2025
Christmas Break 12/31/2025
New Year's Day 1/1/2026
Between a lowerbound value of 181 Miss the pie Choose the confidence you want for the co
in cell I109, and/or choose the confidence
and an upperbound value of 231 chart? Press upperbound thresholds in cells I113 and I1
the range probability is 90% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 5% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 5% pie chart
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Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimat
ows Combined
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y Confidence column
he planning estimate
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
Chart Zoom
75%
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
stribution Charts Show Left-Side Area
Click for help
Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Medium confidence 24 150 89.4%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
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atisticalpert.com
PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
89 151 145 140 136 133
-Curve
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← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Monte Carlo Simulation
Press F9 to re-simulate 10,000 trials This chart isn't available in your version of Excel.
Minimum 123.8
Maximum 123.8
Mean 123.8
Median 123.8
Mode 124
Standard Deviation 0.0
Chart Zoom
75%
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This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
s shape or saving this workbook into a different file format will permanently break the chart.
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atisticalpert.com
s using Statistical PERT®
new release notifications
odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
rally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.
PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
Show the percentage of simulated trials that were LESS THAN or EQUAL TO the SPERT estimates above
SPERT Monte Carlo Simulation (PRESS F9 to simulate 10,000 trials)
0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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TER THAN an uncertainty
70% ← Columns X through PJ are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar char
133
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help
Scenario 2 Scenario 3
week sprints
story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
that the most likely outcome will regularly occur
story points (or user stories or features)
story points (or user stories or features)
story points of effort (or user stories or features)
80% 90% confidence in each sprint iteration
if red, check your inputs and ensure this is a bell-shaped uncertai
18.7 18.7 story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
4.0 4.0 that is: (MAX - MIN) * SPERT RSM
You can override SPERT's standard deviation using a calculated st
15.3 13.5 story points (or user stories or features) each sprint (for the confid
13.07 14.77 sprints to do all the work of the Product Backlog or the next relea
You can round up or down the number of weeks needed based up
26 30 business weeks
extra days (working and non-working) to add to the date calculati
182 210 which includes both working + non-working days
10/30/2024 11/27/2024 or earlier
liam W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
com
notifications
the terms of the
n 3 of the License,
ed trademarks. If you modify
modified spreadsheet.
pyright notice,
he GNU General Public License.
← Columns Q through T are hidden; they are used to create s
is a bell-shaped uncertainty
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0
24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /
8 3 8 3 8 2 7 2 7 2 7 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
7/ 7/1 7/1 7/2 7/2 8/ 8/ 8/1 8/1 8/2 8/2 9/ 9/ 9/1 9/1 9/2 9/2 10/ 10/ 0/1 0/1 0/2 0/2 0/3 11/ 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/2 1/3 12/ 2/1 2/1 2/2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help
Optimistic Conservative Avg Work Standard
Expected
15.0% 85.0% Completed Deviation
Value
47.2 21.6 All Iterations All Iterations
34.4 12.4
Chart
December 13
January 10
February 7
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02
/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 4/2 9/2 4/2 9/2 4/2 9/2 3/2
/1 /2 /2 /3 2/ /1 /1 /2 /2 /3 1/ 1/ 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/2 2/
11 11 11 11 1 12 12 12 12 12
Optimistic Conservative
ons
rks. If you modify
spreadsheet.
You may overwrite Row 6's data, but DO NOT DELETE the data in Row 6 or else Excel formula errors will occur
1 7-Oct 97 3 0 0 0
2 8-Oct 95 3 2 0 0
3 9-Oct 94 3 3 0 0
4 10-Oct 90 3 2 2 3
5 11-Oct 88 2 3 3 4
6 14-Oct 85 4 4 2 5
7 15-Oct 81 3 3 1 12
8 16-Oct 101 3 4 0 14
9 17-Oct 98 4 5 1 14
10 18-Oct 93 3 8 3 15
11 21-Oct 90 3 11 1 17
12 22-Oct 85 4 16 0 18
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Need more rows? Unhide rows 51-305.
This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
m (CFD) Stacked Area Charts Click for help
Need more process steps? Unhide columns H-V. Rename process steps to fit your workflow.
Hide any columns you don't use to remove them from the CFD charts below.
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7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 15-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct
For the WIP Only chart above, the example "Done" column is de-selected. Adjust this chart by choosing
only the true work-in-progress (WIP) process steps after you customize this worksheet to your workflow.
Then, right-click on the chart and choose "Select data…" and de-select your "Done" column.
SPERT Most Likely Subjective Terms RSM Min Most Likely Max
Near certainty 0.07071068 1 98 1
Very high confidence 0.1 2 96 2
High confidence 0.14142136 4 92 4
Medium-high confidence 0.17320508 6 88 6
Medium confidence 0.2 8 84 8
Medium-low confidence 0.23452079 11 78 11
Low confidence 0.27386128 15 70 15
Very low confidence 0.31622777 20 60 20
Extremely low confidence 0.35355339 25 50 25
Guesstimate 0.40620192 33 34 33
-5%
-10%
These are the Minimum heuristic -15%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- -20%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed -25%
entry)' worksheets to create a minimum
value for a 3-point estimate. -30%
-35%
You can add, remove, or change values in -40%
this list. -50%
-60%
-70%
10%
20%
These are the Maximum heuristic 30%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- 40%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed 50%
entry)' worksheets to create a maximum
value for a 3-point estimate. 75%
100%
You can add, remove, or change values in 125%
this this list. 150%
175%
200%
Are you a Frequentist or a Bayesian modeler? Hover over the label to see an explanatory note and learn whether
I don't know (or I don't care)! Your choice does not affect any Statistical PERT calculations
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
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See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help
Hint: Insert new rows inside the middle of a group, not at the top or bottom, so range references
will automatically adjust to include the newly inserted rows.
mates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty Show the percentage of simulated trials that were LESS THAN or EQUAL
y will EXCEED the SPERT estimates below Show the percentage of simulated trials that EXCEEDED the SPERT estim
with Statistical PERT
th Statistical PERT
with Statistical PERT unless you say you're a Bayesian!
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