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Welcome to Statistical PERT® Normal Edition

Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) is a freely licensed, probabilistic, estimation technique. Use Statistical PERT
to estimate uncertainties that have bell-shaped risk properties, like: task duration, work effort,
revenue, expenses, agile story points, project portfolios, event attendance, and more.

Statistical PERT® Normal Edition uses Excel's two normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and
NORM.INV to model mild-to-moderately skewed uncertainties. To model a wider range of
bell-shaped uncertainties, try Statistical PERT® Beta Edition which uses Excel's two beta
distribution functions, BETA.DIST and BETA.INV. It's freely licensed, too!

This example workbook is intended to help you quickly get started. You can also download
a Quick Start guide for Statistical PERT® Normal Edition. The Quick Start guide explains the
essential things you need to know to use this Statistical PERT® Normal Edition spreadsheet.
Statistical PERT downloads share the same three steps for making a probablistic estimate:

1) Create a 3-point estimate (minimum, most likely, maximum)


2) Render a subjective judgment about the most likely outcome
3) Select any probabilistic planning estimate, or make a risk-based forecast

If you have any questions, suggestions, or comments, I'd love to hear from you!
Contact me!

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
George E. P. Box, British statistician (1919-2013)

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.


Mark Twain, American humorist (1835-1910)

New with Version 5 — Dynamically-drawn Cumulative Flow Diagrams!

New with Version 5 — SPERT® Scheduler to create a probabilistic schedule!

Plus:
- New! Some tri-color bell-curve charts have a new zoom feature to resize the chart
- Enhanced! Bell-curve charts use double the data points (200) for smoother graphics
- Additional minor tweaks throughout the spreadsheet
- Indicate whether you're a Frequentist or a Bayesian (if you care at all!)
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition README for Version 5

Statistical PERT® Normal Edition Version 5 introduces a dynamic, cumulative flow diagram (CFD) worksheet that
any team can use to monitor work that flows through their unique process. The "SPERT® Normal - CFD Charts"
worksheet exposes five process steps (Backlog, Developing, Testing, Deploying, Done), but you can unhide columns
H-V and include up to fifteen more process steps for a total of 20. You can rename any process step to your liking.

Importantly, on the CFD worksheet, the sample data in the Excel Row #6 cannot be deleted without breaking the
dynamically-controlled cell ranges that are used to create the CFD charts. You can overwrite the sample data
with your own data, but you should not delete the sample data in Row #6. (If you accidentally delete the
Row #6 data, just replace it with numeric data to restore the normal functionality of that worksheet).

Another new worksheet in Version 5 is the "SPERT® Normal Scheduler" worksheet. This worksheet was originally
introduced in Version 3 of Statistical PERT® Beta Edition, but it's now included in the Normal Edition, too. The
SPERT Scheduler in this spreadsheet uses the normal distribution to model project task or activity uncertainty.
In this worksheeet, you name only the critical path tasks (or activities) for your project, model each duration
uncertainty, and then select the confidence level you want for each task (or activity) in your project. The SPERT
Scheduler will find the duration estimate that matches your desired confidence level, and create the start and
finish dates for the critical path. Note that this worksheet was built from the "Mixed entry" worksheet.

Statistical PERT® Normal Edition Version 4 introduced a real Monte Carlo simulation worksheet that
will sample a single, random variable for 10,000 trials using an Excel data table (see the SPERT® Normal
MC Simulation tab). That is the only SPERT worksheet that uses Monte Carlo simulation to construct
probabilistic estimates using Excel's normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and NORM.INV.

Because SPERT now includes a data table to support Monte Carlo simulation, this SPERT workbook
may not have the same, speedy performance as it did in Version 3 and earlier versions. If you find that
this workbook's calculations are sluggish, check the Excel setting for "Calculation Options" under the
Formulas tab on the Excel Ribbon and select the option, "Automatic Except for Data Tables." This will
avoid SPERT performing a 10,000 trial simulation everytime you interact with any data entry cells
on any worksheet. If you want to use the Monte Carlo simulation, press F9 to execute a simulation
of 10,000 trials (this is only meaningful with the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation worksheet).

You may also delete the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation worksheet if you don't want to use Monte Carlo
simulation, or if you want to reduce the file size of this SPERT spreadsheet file.

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
TL;DR
On the Excel Ribbon, look for the "Calculation"
group under the "Formulas" menu selection.
Then, click the "Calculation Options" button and
select "Automatic Except for Data Tables" to
increase the speed and calculation performance
of all Version 5 SPERT worksheets.

Or, simply delete the SPERT® Normal MC


Simulation worksheet from this Excel workbook.

Deleting the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation


worksheet may improve any performance issues
you may encounter using Excel.
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Super Simple SPERT®
Think about an uncertain outcome. Then, fill-in
Enter your uncertainty's minimum value →
START HERE →→→ Enter your uncertainty's most likely value →
Enter your uncertainty's maximum value →
Validate your values →
Check if this is a bell-shaped uncertainty →
How confident are you in the most likely outcome? →
Here's your implied, bell-shaped curve →
Enter a planning estimate →
Choose either the left- or right-side area →
Your planning estimate of 75 is greater than 11% of all feasible outcomes →
Enter any percentage between 1% and 99% →
The SPERT estimate of 100 is greater than 50% of all feasible outcomes →

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).

↑ Rows 36 through 138 are hidden; they are used to create the bell-curve Sparkline
uper Simple SPERT® Click
Clickfor
forhelp
help

ncertain outcome. Then, fill-in the yellow cells, below:


50 What's the minimum feasible value or outcome for your uncertainty?
100 What's the most-likely-to-occur value or outcome for your uncertainty?
150 What's the maximum feasible value or outcome for your uncertainty?
See a green checkmark? Keep going! See a yellow exclamation mark? Check your 3-point entr
See a green or yellow light? Keep going! See a red light? SPERT won't work well for this estima
Medium confidence Render a subjective judgment (your opinion) about HOW LIKELY the Most Likely outcome really
Based upon your entries, this is how SPERT models your uncertainty using the normal distributio
75 Your planning estimate is any interesting number between your minimum and maximum estim
Show Left-Side Area You can obtain SPERT estimates from either the left- or right-side area of the bell-curve
11% 89% of all feasible outcomes exceed your planning estimate of 75
50% Below, SPERT will calculate an estimate for you
100 50% of all feasible outcomes exceed the SPERT estimate of 100
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

ease notifications
nder the terms of the
ersion 3 of the License,
istered trademarks. If you modify
m the modified spreadsheet.
al copyright notice,
der the GNU General Public License.

ULAR PURPOSE.
n mark? Check your 3-point entry to see if it's correct.
RT won't work well for this estimate scenario.
Y the Most Likely outcome really is
ainty using the normal distribution
ur minimum and maximum estimates
de area of the bell-curve
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition for Beginners
First, enter a three-point estimate for any uncertainty
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240 Use SPERT to estimate task duration, work effort, agile story point

Validate your bell-shaped uncertainty A green checkmark means you have correctly entered
A green or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell

The PERT Mean is the average result PERT Mean


(It's also called the expected result) 130

Render a subjective judgment about HOW LIKELY


the Most Likely outcome really is

This normal distribution graph shows the bell-shaped curve for your uncertainty

This is the SPERT Standard Deviation for your uncertainty

Show probabilities from either the left-side area or rig

Enter a Planning Estimate and see its likelihood of occurrence under SPERT

Here, you'll see several SPERT estimates


You can change these cumulative probability c
Find a SPERT Probablistic Estimate that b

Choose whether to show currency formatting


Do not show currency formatting

That's it! Now try using the (3-Point entry) worksheet!

Or, use the (1-Point entry) worksheet, where two heuristics automatically calculate the Minimum
-50% << Heuristics >> 100% (You can change the dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240
Try selecting a different dropdown percentage by clicking above the Minimum and Maximum cell headings,
and see the value changes for the minimum and maximum point-estimates in the green-shaded cells.
The rest of the (1-Point entry) worksheet works exactly the same way as the (3-Point entry) worksheet.

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).

↑ Rows 62 through 164 are hidden; they are used to create the bell-curve Sparkline
on for Beginners Click for help

stimate task duration, work effort, agile story points, cost, revenue,

reen checkmark means you have correctly entered minimum, most likely and maximum point-estimates.
reen or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell-shaped uncertainty. If it's red, try changing your three-point estimate.

The PERT Mean is calculated using the PERT formula: (Minimum + 4(Most Likely) + Maximum) / 6

Most Likely Confidence


Medium confidence This choice influences the implied bell-shaped curve for the uncertainty you are estimating

Curve The bell-shaped curve will change depending on your 3-point estimate and your sub
haped curve for your uncertainty Note: Even if your 3-point estimate indicates skewing, SPERT Normal Edition fits yo

SPERT SD
Standard Deviation for your uncertainty 36
You don't have to know this or do anything with this, but SPERT need

ties from either the left-side area or right-side area Show Left-Side Area Read the red text below to see how th

Planning SPERT Note: This is a cumulative probabi


Estimate Probability the Planning Estimate will be EQU
ts likelihood of occurrence under SPERT Probability 150 71.1% * This is true if you choose Show Left-Side
you'll see the SPERT Probability that your

Show the likelihood that the SPERT e


Here, you'll see several SPERT estimates with different probabilities of occurrence SPE
You can change these cumulative probability choices (enter values between 1% and 99%) → 10%
ind a SPERT Probablistic Estimate that best matches your risk propensity → 84

cs automatically calculate the Minimum and Maximum point-estimates


e dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)

mum and Maximum cell headings,


s in the green-shaded cells.
he (3-Point entry) worksheet.

atisticalpert.com

new release notifications


odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
rally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).

curve Sparkline
ee-point estimate.

e uncertainty you are estimating

your 3-point estimate and your subjective judgment about the Most Likely outcome (above)
wing, SPERT Normal Edition fits your uncertainty into a normally-distributed, bell-shaped curve

anything with this, but SPERT needs this

d the red text below to see how this choice affects the SPERT estimates

te: This is a cumulative probability, so the SPERT Probability is the likelihood that
Planning Estimate will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN the uncertainty's true value*
is is true if you choose Show Left-Side Area in the dropdown control above. If you choose Show Right-Side Area,
ll see the SPERT Probability that your Planning Estimate will be EXCEEDED by the uncertainty's true value.

Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
176 167 160 154 149
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition 1-Point Entry
-50% << Heuristics >> 100%
ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean
1 60 120 240 130
2 60 120 240 130
3 60 120 240 130
4 60 120 240 130
5 60 120 240 130
6 60 120 240 130
7 60 120 240 130
8 60 120 240 130
9 60 120 240 130
10 60 120 240 130
600 1,200 2,400 1,300

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 80%


The lowerbound threshold is 1,118
and the upperbound threshold is 1,482

Between a lowerbound value of 1,118 Miss the pie


and an upperbound value of 1,482 chart? Press
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combin

873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,44
1,44
1,4
11
873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,44
1,44
1,4
11

To use this template:


1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence colum
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area

Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
High confidence 25 150 78.4%
Medium-high confidence 31 150 73.9%
Medium confidence 36 150 71.1%
Medium-low confidence 42 150 68.2%
Low confidence 49 150 65.8%
Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 142 1,500 92.0%

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,400 75.9%

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area to calculate the
probability of all uncertainties together. This is especially useful for creating a
forecast for an entire project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval in cell D108, and/or
choose the confidence lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.

Normal Distribution of All Rows Combined

198
93
1,206
9202
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
198
93
1,206
9202
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727

Maximum columns
tcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column

he PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

atisticalpert.com

new release notifications


odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
rally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 50%
114 146 143 141 139 130
107 153 149 145 142 130
97 163 156 151 147 130
90 170 162 156 151 130
84 176 167 160 154 130
76 184 174 166 158 130
67 193 181 171 163 130
57 203 189 178 168 130
48 212 196 184 173 130
36 224 206 192 179 130
776 1,824 1,723 1,644 1,576 1,300

1,118 1,482 1,447 1,420 1,396 1,300


← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition 3-Point Entry

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean


1 60 120 240 130
2 60 120 240 130
3 60 120 240 130
4 60 120 240 130
5 60 120 240 130
6 60 120 240 130
7 60 120 240 130
8 60 120 240 130
9 60 120 240 130
10 60 120 240 130
600 1,200 2,400 1,300

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 80%


The lowerbound threshold is 1,118
and the upperbound threshold is 1,482

Between a lowerbound value of 1,118 Miss the pie


and an upperbound value of 1,482 chart? Press
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combin

873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,43
1,44
1,4
11
To use this template:
1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence colum
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area

Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
High confidence 25 150 78.4%
Medium-high confidence 31 150 73.9%
Medium confidence 36 150 71.1%
Medium-low confidence 42 150 68.2%
Low confidence 49 150 65.8%
Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 142 1,500 92.0%

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,400 75.9%

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area to calculate the
probability of all uncertainties together. This is especially useful for creating a
forecast for an entire project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval in cell D108, and/or
choose the confidence lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.

Normal Distribution of All Rows Combined

189
85
1,198
0193
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
Maximum columns
tcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column

he PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

atisticalpert.com

new release notifications


odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
rally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
114 146 143 141 139 137
107 153 149 145 142 139
97 163 156 151 147 143
90 170 162 156 151 146
84 176 167 160 154 149
76 184 174 166 158 152
67 193 181 171 163 156
57 203 189 178 168 160
48 212 196 184 173 163
36 224 206 192 179 168
776 1,824 1,723 1,644 1,576 1,514

1,118 1,482 1,447 1,420 1,396 1,375

701
97
1,710
3706
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Mixed entry
-50% < Heuristics > 100%
ID Min % Min point Minimum Most Likely Maximum Max point Max %
1 60 120 240
2 60 120 240
3 60 120 240
4 -10% 108 120 144 20%
5 -25% 90 120 160 160
6 40 40 120 200 200
7 80 80 120 210 75%
8 60 120 240
9 60 120 240
10 60 120 240
678 1,200 2,154

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 80%


After you finish entering y
The lowerbound threshold is 1,106 to calculate the probabilit
and the upperbound threshold is 1,438 is especially useful for cre
project, for example.

Between a lowerbound value of 1,106 Miss the pie Choose the confidence yo
in cell F108, and/or choos
and an upperbound value of 1,438 chart? Press upperbound thresholds in
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combin

884
888
892
895
899
903
907
911
915
919
923
927
930
934
938
942
946
950
954
958
961
965
969
973
977
981
985
989
993
996
1,000
1,004
1,008
1,012
1,016
1,020
1,024
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,039
1,043
1,047
1,051
1,055
1,059
1,062
1,066
1,070
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,086
1,090
1,093
1,097
1,101
1,105
1,109
1,113
1,117
1,121
1,124
1,128
1,132
1,136
1,140
1,144
1,148
1,152
1,156
1,159
1,163
1,167
1,171
1,175
1,179
1,183
1,187
1,190
1,194
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,214
1,218
1,222
1,225
1,229
1,233
1,237
1,241
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,256
1,260
1,264
1,268
1,272
1,276
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,41
1,4
1,1
884
888
892
895
899
903
907
911
915
919
923
927
930
934
938
942
946
950
954
958
961
965
969
973
977
981
985
989
993
996
1,000
1,004
1,008
1,012
1,016
1,020
1,024
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,039
1,043
1,047
1,051
1,055
1,059
1,062
1,066
1,070
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,086
1,090
1,093
1,097
1,101
1,105
1,109
1,113
1,117
1,121
1,124
1,128
1,132
1,136
1,140
1,144
1,148
1,152
1,156
1,159
1,163
1,167
1,171
1,175
1,179
1,183
1,187
1,190
1,194
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,214
1,218
1,222
1,225
1,229
1,233
1,237
1,241
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,256
1,260
1,264
1,268
1,272
1,276
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,41
1,4
1,1

To use this template:


1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence colum
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area

Planning SPERT
PERT Mean Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
130 Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
130 Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
130 High confidence 25 150 78.4%
122 Medium-high confidence 10 10 150 99.7%
122 Medium confidence 14 150 97.9%
120 Medium-low confidence 38 150 78.8%
128 Low confidence 36 150 72.9%
130 Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
130 Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
130 Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
1,272 © 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 129 1,500 96.1%

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,400 83.9%

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area
to calculate the probability of all uncertainties together. This
is especially useful for creating a forecast for an entire
project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval


in cell F108, and/or choose the confidence lower and
upperbound thresholds in cells F112 and F113.

bution of All Rows Combined

1,272
60
6268
1,276
64
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,416
1,420
1,423
1,427
1,431
1,435
1,439
1,443
1,447
1,451
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,470
1,474
1,478
1,482
1,485
1,489
1,493
1,497
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,517
1,520
1,524
1,528
1,532
1,536
1,540
1,544
1,548
1,551
1,555
1,559
1,563
1,567
1,571
1,575
1,579
1,583
1,586
1,590
1,594
1,598
1,602
1,606
1,610
1,614
1,617
1,621
1,625
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,641
1,645
1,649
1,652
1,656
1,660
1,272
60
6268
1,276
64
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,416
1,420
1,423
1,427
1,431
1,435
1,439
1,443
1,447
1,451
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,470
1,474
1,478
1,482
1,485
1,489
1,493
1,497
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,517
1,520
1,524
1,528
1,532
1,536
1,540
1,544
1,548
1,551
1,555
1,559
1,563
1,567
1,571
1,575
1,579
1,583
1,586
1,590
1,594
1,598
1,602
1,606
1,610
1,614
1,617
1,621
1,625
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,641
1,645
1,649
1,652
1,656
1,660

he Most Likely Confidence column

value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

bability for the planning estimate

cations

demarks. If you modify


fied spreadsheet.

NU General Public License.


Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT Probabilistic Estimates


10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% ← Columns Z through PL are hidden
114 146 143 141 139 137
107 153 149 145 142 139
97 163 156 151 147 143
109 135 132 130 129 127
104 140 136 133 131 129
72 168 159 152 145 140
83 174 165 158 152 147
57 203 189 178 168 160
48 212 196 184 173 163
36 224 206 192 179 168
827 1,717 1,632 1,564 1,506 1,454

1,106 1,438 1,406 1,381 1,359 1,340


ns Z through PL are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve ball chart
SPERT® Scheduler Start & Finish 8/1/2024 8/20/2025 Statistical PERT® (S
For scheduling the critical path ONLY! 80% 10.7%
Activity or Task Duration Days Start Date Finish Date Min %
Project initiation 6 8/1/2024 8/8/2024
Business requirements analysis 23 8/9/2024 9/11/2024 -25%
Detail design 18 9/12/2024 10/7/2024 -25%
Prototype 24 10/8/2024 11/12/2024
Build solution 93 11/13/2024 4/11/2025 -25%
Migrate to QA 7 4/14/2025 4/22/2025
QA user acceptance test 39 4/23/2025 6/17/2025 -25%
Pre-production prep 11 6/18/2025 7/3/2025
Production migration 2 7/7/2025 7/8/2025
Project closure 10 7/9/2025 7/22/2025 -20%

If needed, unhide rows 16-103 233


21 Optional schedule contingency
254 Total project duration

Non-work Day Description Date


Martin Luther King, Jr. Day (USA) 1/15/2024
Presidents' Day (USA) 2/19/2024
Memorial Day (USA) 5/27/2024
Juneteenth (USA) 6/19/2024
Independence Day (USA) 7/4/2024
Labor Day (USA) 9/2/2024
Columbus Day (USA) 10/14/2024
Veterans Day (USA) 11/11/2024
Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/28/2024
Day after Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/29/2024
Christmas Break 12/16/2024
Christmas Break 12/17/2024
Christmas Break 12/18/2024
Christmas Break 12/19/2024
Christmas Break 12/20/2024
Christmas Break 12/23/2024
Christmas Break 12/24/2024
Christmas Break 12/25/2024
Christmas Break 12/26/2024
Christmas Break 12/27/2024
New Year's Day 1/1/2025
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day (USA) 1/20/2025
Presidents' Day (USA) 2/17/2025
Memorial Day (USA) 5/26/2025
Juneteenth (USA) 6/19/2025

161
161
162
162
163
163
164
164
164
165
165
166
166
167
167
168
168
169
169
169
170
170
171
171
172
17
1
Independence Day (USA) 7/4/2025
Labor Day (USA) 9/1/2025
Columbus Day (USA) 10/13/2025 161
161
162
162
163
163
164
164
164
165
165
166
166
167
167
168
168
169
169
169
170
170
171
171
172
17
1
Veterans Day (USA, observed) 11/11/2025
Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/27/2025 To use this template:
Day after Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/28/2025 1) Create a 3-point estima
Christmas Break 12/22/2025 2) Render a subjective jud
Christmas Break 12/23/2025 3) Examine the SPERT pro
Christmas Break 12/24/2025 Note: NORM.DIST and
Christmas Break 12/25/2025
Christmas Break 12/26/2025 Optionally:
Christmas Break 12/29/2025 Enter any desired estimat
Christmas Break 12/30/2025
Christmas Break 12/31/2025
New Year's Day 1/1/2026

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024


Download more FREE Stati
Watch a Pluralsight course
Watch Statistical PERT vid
Connect with or follow W
Subscribe to the SPERT® n
Statistical PERT® is a free spr
GNU General Public License
or (at your option) any later
this spreadsheet in any mate
On both verbatim and modifi
including the author's name

This file is distributed in the


without even the implied wa
See the GNU General Public
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Scheduler & Mixed entry
Click for help
-50% 50%
< Heuristics >
Min point Minimum Most Likely Maximum Max point Max % PERT Mean
3 5 8 5
15 20 30 21
11 15 23 16
10 20 30 20
60 80 120 83
3 5 10 100% 5
23 30 60 100% 34
5 10 15 10
1 2 3 2
8 10 12 20% 10

138 197 310 206

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 90%


After you finish entering your estimates ab
The lowerbound threshold is 181 to calculate the probability of all uncertain
and the upperbound threshold is 231 is especially useful for creating a forecast f
project, for example.

Between a lowerbound value of 181 Miss the pie Choose the confidence you want for the co
in cell I109, and/or choose the confidence
and an upperbound value of 231 chart? Press upperbound thresholds in cells I113 and I1
the range probability is 90% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 5% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 5% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combined

161
161
162
162
163
163
164
164
164
165
165
166
166
167
167
168
168
169
169
169
170
170
171
171
172
172
173
173
173
174
174
175
175
176
176
177
177
178
178
178
179
179
180
180
181
181
182
182
183
183
183
184
184
185
185
186
186
187
187
187
188
188
189
189
190
190
191
191
192
192
192
193
193
194
194
195
195
196
196
196
197
197
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199
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201
201
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230
231
231
23
2
161
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173
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179
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180
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2

To use this template:


1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimat

Planning SPERT SPERT Prob


Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability 10%
High confidence 1 5 50.0% 4
Medium-high confidence 3 21 52.6% 18
Medium confidence 2 16 56.6% 13
Medium-low confidence 5 20 50.0% 14
Medium confidence 12 83 48.9% 68
Low confidence 2 5 42.0% 3
Medium-high confidence 6 34 51.5% 25
Very high confidence 1 10 50.0% 9
Very high confidence 0 2 50.0% 2
Very high confidence 0 10 50.0% 9

© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 15 206 50.1% 164

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 230 94.5% 187

you finish entering your estimates above, use this area


culate the probability of all uncertainties together. This
ecially useful for creating a forecast for an entire
ct, for example.

e the confidence you want for the confidence interval


I109, and/or choose the confidence lower and
bound thresholds in cells I113 and I114.

ows Combined

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y Confidence column

implies probabilistic symmetry.

he planning estimate
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT Probabilistic Estimates


90% 85% 80% 75% 70% ← Columns AC through PO are hidden; they are u
6 6 6 5 5
24 24 23 23 22
19 18 18 17 17
26 25 24 23 22
99 96 93 91 90
8 8 7 7 6
42 40 39 38 37
11 11 11 11 11
2 2 2 2 2
11 10 10 10 10

247 240 233 228 223

225 222 219 216 214


gh PO are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve ball chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Normal Distribution Charts

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean


1 60 120 180 120

With a confidence interval of 80%


the lowerbound threshold is 89
and the upperbound threshold is 151

Between a lowerbound value of 89 Miss the pie


and an upperbound value of 151 chart? Press
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart

Chart Zoom
75%

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
stribution Charts Show Left-Side Area
Click for help
Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Medium confidence 24 150 89.4%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

SPERT® Normal Distribution Bell-Curve

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atisticalpert.com

new release notifications


odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
rally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
89 151 145 140 136 133

-Curve

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← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Monte Carlo Simulation

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean


1 60 120 180 120

Press F9 to re-simulate 10,000 trials This chart isn't available in your version of Excel.

Editing this shape or saving this workbook into a different file


Planning Estimate 150
Planning estimate is greater than 100.0%
of the 10,000 trials
Between a lowerbound value of 89
and an upperbound value of 151
the range probability is 100.0%
The lowerbound area covers 0.0%
and the upperbound area covers 0.0%

Minimum 123.8
Maximum 123.8
Mean 123.8
Median 123.8
Mode 124
Standard Deviation 0.0

With a confidence interval of 80%


the lowerbound threshold is 89 SPERT® Normal Di
and the upperbound threshold is 151

Between a lowerbound value of 89


and an upperbound value of 151
the range probability is 80%
The lowerbound area covers 10%
and the upperbound area covers 10%

Chart Zoom
75%
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110
110
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114
115
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1

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals using Statistical PERT®
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).

Simulation Data Table


Trial Result
124
1 123.795210905
2 123.795210905
3 123.795210905
4 123.795210905
5 123.795210905
6 123.795210905
7 123.795210905
8 123.795210905
9 123.795210905
10 123.795210905
11 123.795210905
12 123.795210905
13 123.795210905
14 123.795210905
15 123.795210905
16 123.795210905
17 123.795210905
18 123.795210905
19 123.795210905
20 123.795210905
21 123.795210905
22 123.795210905
23 123.795210905
24 123.795210905
25 123.795210905
26 123.795210905
27 123.795210905
28 123.795210905
29 123.795210905
30 123.795210905
31 123.795210905
32 123.795210905
33 123.795210905
34 123.795210905
35 123.795210905
36 123.795210905
37 123.795210905
38 123.795210905
39 123.795210905
40 123.795210905
41 123.795210905
42 123.795210905
43 123.795210905
44 123.795210905
45 123.795210905
46 123.795210905
47 123.795210905
48 123.795210905
49 123.795210905
50 123.795210905
51 123.795210905
52 123.795210905
53 123.795210905
54 123.795210905
55 123.795210905
56 123.795210905
57 123.795210905
58 123.795210905
59 123.795210905
60 123.795210905
61 123.795210905
62 123.795210905
63 123.795210905
64 123.795210905
65 123.795210905
66 123.795210905
67 123.795210905
68 123.795210905
69 123.795210905
70 123.795210905
71 123.795210905
72 123.795210905
73 123.795210905
74 123.795210905
75 123.795210905
76 123.795210905
77 123.795210905
78 123.795210905
79 123.795210905
80 123.795210905
81 123.795210905
82 123.795210905
83 123.795210905
84 123.795210905
85 123.795210905
86 123.795210905
87 123.795210905
88 123.795210905
89 123.795210905
90 123.795210905
91 123.795210905
92 123.795210905
93 123.795210905
94 123.795210905
95 123.795210905
96 123.795210905
97 123.795210905
98 123.795210905
99 123.795210905
100 123.795210905
101 123.795210905
102 123.795210905
103 123.795210905
104 123.795210905
105 123.795210905
106 123.795210905
107 123.795210905
108 123.795210905
109 123.795210905
110 123.795210905
111 123.795210905
112 123.795210905
113 123.795210905
114 123.795210905
115 123.795210905
116 123.795210905
117 123.795210905
118 123.795210905
119 123.795210905
120 123.795210905
121 123.795210905
122 123.795210905
123 123.795210905
124 123.795210905
125 123.795210905
126 123.795210905
127 123.795210905
128 123.795210905
129 123.795210905
130 123.795210905
131 123.795210905
132 123.795210905
133 123.795210905
134 123.795210905
135 123.795210905
136 123.795210905
137 123.795210905
138 123.795210905
139 123.795210905
140 123.795210905
141 123.795210905
142 123.795210905
143 123.795210905
144 123.795210905
145 123.795210905
146 123.795210905
147 123.795210905
148 123.795210905
149 123.795210905
150 123.795210905
151 123.795210905
152 123.795210905
153 123.795210905
154 123.795210905
155 123.795210905
156 123.795210905
157 123.795210905
158 123.795210905
159 123.795210905
160 123.795210905
161 123.795210905
162 123.795210905
163 123.795210905
164 123.795210905
165 123.795210905
166 123.795210905
167 123.795210905
168 123.795210905
169 123.795210905
170 123.795210905
171 123.795210905
172 123.795210905
173 123.795210905
174 123.795210905
175 123.795210905
176 123.795210905
177 123.795210905
178 123.795210905
179 123.795210905
180 123.795210905
181 123.795210905
182 123.795210905
183 123.795210905
184 123.795210905
185 123.795210905
186 123.795210905
187 123.795210905
188 123.795210905
189 123.795210905
190 123.795210905
191 123.795210905
192 123.795210905
193 123.795210905
194 123.795210905
195 123.795210905
196 123.795210905
197 123.795210905
198 123.795210905
199 123.795210905
200 123.795210905
201 123.795210905
202 123.795210905
203 123.795210905
204 123.795210905
205 123.795210905
206 123.795210905
207 123.795210905
208 123.795210905
209 123.795210905
210 123.795210905
211 123.795210905
212 123.795210905
213 123.795210905
214 123.795210905
215 123.795210905
216 123.795210905
217 123.795210905
218 123.795210905
219 123.795210905
220 123.795210905
221 123.795210905
222 123.795210905
223 123.795210905
224 123.795210905
225 123.795210905
226 123.795210905
227 123.795210905
228 123.795210905
229 123.795210905
230 123.795210905
231 123.795210905
232 123.795210905
233 123.795210905
234 123.795210905
235 123.795210905
236 123.795210905
237 123.795210905
238 123.795210905
239 123.795210905
240 123.795210905
241 123.795210905
242 123.795210905
243 123.795210905
244 123.795210905
245 123.795210905
246 123.795210905
247 123.795210905
248 123.795210905
249 123.795210905
250 123.795210905
251 123.795210905
252 123.795210905
253 123.795210905
254 123.795210905
255 123.795210905
256 123.795210905
257 123.795210905
258 123.795210905
259 123.795210905
260 123.795210905
261 123.795210905
262 123.795210905
263 123.795210905
264 123.795210905
265 123.795210905
266 123.795210905
267 123.795210905
268 123.795210905
269 123.795210905
270 123.795210905
271 123.795210905
272 123.795210905
273 123.795210905
274 123.795210905
275 123.795210905
276 123.795210905
277 123.795210905
278 123.795210905
279 123.795210905
280 123.795210905
281 123.795210905
282 123.795210905
283 123.795210905
284 123.795210905
285 123.795210905
286 123.795210905
287 123.795210905
288 123.795210905
289 123.795210905
290 123.795210905
291 123.795210905
292 123.795210905
293 123.795210905
294 123.795210905
295 123.795210905
296 123.795210905
297 123.795210905
298 123.795210905
299 123.795210905
300 123.795210905
301 123.795210905
302 123.795210905
303 123.795210905
304 123.795210905
305 123.795210905
306 123.795210905
307 123.795210905
308 123.795210905
309 123.795210905
310 123.795210905
311 123.795210905
312 123.795210905
313 123.795210905
314 123.795210905
315 123.795210905
316 123.795210905
317 123.795210905
318 123.795210905
319 123.795210905
320 123.795210905
321 123.795210905
322 123.795210905
323 123.795210905
324 123.795210905
325 123.795210905
326 123.795210905
327 123.795210905
328 123.795210905
329 123.795210905
330 123.795210905
331 123.795210905
332 123.795210905
333 123.795210905
334 123.795210905
335 123.795210905
336 123.795210905
337 123.795210905
338 123.795210905
339 123.795210905
340 123.795210905
341 123.795210905
342 123.795210905
343 123.795210905
344 123.795210905
345 123.795210905
346 123.795210905
347 123.795210905
348 123.795210905
349 123.795210905
350 123.795210905
351 123.795210905
352 123.795210905
353 123.795210905
354 123.795210905
355 123.795210905
356 123.795210905
357 123.795210905
358 123.795210905
359 123.795210905
360 123.795210905
361 123.795210905
362 123.795210905
363 123.795210905
364 123.795210905
365 123.795210905
366 123.795210905
367 123.795210905
368 123.795210905
369 123.795210905
370 123.795210905
371 123.795210905
372 123.795210905
373 123.795210905
374 123.795210905
375 123.795210905
376 123.795210905
377 123.795210905
378 123.795210905
379 123.795210905
380 123.795210905
381 123.795210905
382 123.795210905
383 123.795210905
384 123.795210905
385 123.795210905
386 123.795210905
387 123.795210905
388 123.795210905
389 123.795210905
390 123.795210905
391 123.795210905
392 123.795210905
393 123.795210905
394 123.795210905
395 123.795210905
396 123.795210905
397 123.795210905
398 123.795210905
399 123.795210905
400 123.795210905
401 123.795210905
402 123.795210905
403 123.795210905
404 123.795210905
405 123.795210905
406 123.795210905
407 123.795210905
408 123.795210905
409 123.795210905
410 123.795210905
411 123.795210905
412 123.795210905
413 123.795210905
414 123.795210905
415 123.795210905
416 123.795210905
417 123.795210905
418 123.795210905
419 123.795210905
420 123.795210905
421 123.795210905
422 123.795210905
423 123.795210905
424 123.795210905
425 123.795210905
426 123.795210905
427 123.795210905
428 123.795210905
429 123.795210905
430 123.795210905
431 123.795210905
432 123.795210905
433 123.795210905
434 123.795210905
435 123.795210905
436 123.795210905
437 123.795210905
438 123.795210905
439 123.795210905
440 123.795210905
441 123.795210905
442 123.795210905
443 123.795210905
444 123.795210905
445 123.795210905
446 123.795210905
447 123.795210905
448 123.795210905
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9998 123.795210905
9999 123.795210905
10000 123.795210905
lo Simulation Show Left-Side Area
Click for help
Planning
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Trial Outcome Estimate
Medium confidence 24 124 150
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

sn't available in your version of Excel.

s shape or saving this workbook into a different file format will permanently break the chart.

SPERT® Normal Distribution Bell-Curve

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atisticalpert.com
s using Statistical PERT®
new release notifications
odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
rally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT SPERT Probabilistic Estimates


Probability 10% 90% 85% 80% 75%
89.4% 89 151 145 140 136

Show the percentage of simulated trials that were LESS THAN or EQUAL TO the SPERT estimates above
SPERT Monte Carlo Simulation (PRESS F9 to simulate 10,000 trials)
0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Monte Carlo Simulation Probabilities and Values


1% 123.8 50% 123.8
5% 123.8 55% 123.8
10% 123.8 60% 123.8
15% 123.8 65% 123.8
20% 123.8 70% 123.8
25% 123.8 75% 123.8
30% 123.8 80% 123.8
35% 123.8 85% 123.8
40% 123.8 90% 123.8
45% 123.8 95% 123.8
50% 123.8 99% 123.8

189
688
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7190
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TER THAN an uncertainty

70% ← Columns X through PJ are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar char
133

the SPERT estimates above


0,000 trials)
100.0%
d the bell-curve bar chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Agile Forecast
Scenario 1
The starting date for our project or next release is 5/1/2024
We'll use 2
We'll most likely complete about 18
We have Medium confidence
In a worst-case scenario, we would complete only 10
In a best-case scenario, we might possibly complete 30
Our Product Backlog or next release represents about 200
We desire 50%
Be sure this indicator is green or yellow →
So, on average, we expect each sprint will finish 18.7
For this uncertainty, the SPERT standard deviation is 4.0
Optional: Use your own standard deviation
Given this, we forecast that we'll complete at least 18.7
We'll need 10.71
Optional: Choose a rounding decimal between 0.1 and 0.9 0.3
So, we'll need about 22
Optional: During this time, there is/are
In total, the number of days needed are 154
So, we will complete the Product Backlog or next release on 10/2/2024
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help
Scenario 2 Scenario 3

week sprints
story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
that the most likely outcome will regularly occur
story points (or user stories or features)
story points (or user stories or features)
story points of effort (or user stories or features)
80% 90% confidence in each sprint iteration
if red, check your inputs and ensure this is a bell-shaped uncertai
18.7 18.7 story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
4.0 4.0 that is: (MAX - MIN) * SPERT RSM
You can override SPERT's standard deviation using a calculated st
15.3 13.5 story points (or user stories or features) each sprint (for the confid
13.07 14.77 sprints to do all the work of the Product Backlog or the next relea
You can round up or down the number of weeks needed based up
26 30 business weeks
extra days (working and non-working) to add to the date calculati
182 210 which includes both working + non-working days
10/30/2024 11/27/2024 or earlier
liam W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

com

notifications
the terms of the
n 3 of the License,
ed trademarks. If you modify
modified spreadsheet.
pyright notice,
he GNU General Public License.
← Columns Q through T are hidden; they are used to create s

is a bell-shaped uncertainty

tion using a calculated standard deviation derived from historical data


each sprint (for the confidence level expressed in Row 10)
Backlog or the next release
f weeks needed based upon the fractional amount of sprints required

o add to the date calculation


den; they are used to create scenario calculations and probabilities
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Agile Burn-up Chart
Iteration Prod. Backlog:
Team Product Actual "Done" Total "Done"
ID (Sprint) All To-Do +
Capacity Backlog This Iteration All Iterations
Finish Dates Total "Done"
1 7/8/2024 300 40 40 300
2 7/22/2024 260 30 70 300
3 8/5/2024 230 50 120 300
4 8/19/2024 180 45 165 300
5 9/2/2024 135 30 195 300
6 9/16/2024 300 10 205 495
7 9/30/2024 290 25 230 495
8 10/14/2024 265 45 275 495
9 10/28/2024 150 425
10 11/11/2024 425
11 11/25/2024 425
12 12/9/2024 425
13 12/23/2024 50% 425
14 1/6/2025 50% 425
15 1/20/2025 425
16 2/3/2025 425
Need more than 16 iteration rows? Unhide rows 21-56

SPERT® Agile Burn-up Chart


700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /
8 3 8 3 8 2 7 2 7 2 7 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0
7/ 7/1 7/1 7/2 7/2 8/ 8/ 8/1 8/1 8/2 8/2 9/ 9/ 9/1 9/1 9/2 9/2 10/ 10/ 0/1 0/1 0/2 0/2 0/3 11/ 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/2 1/3 12/ 2/1 2/1 2/2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Product Total Done Expected Optimistic C


Backlog All Iterations Value

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help
Optimistic Conservative Avg Work Standard
Expected
15.0% 85.0% Completed Deviation
Value
47.2 21.6 All Iterations All Iterations
34.4 12.4

#N/A #N/A Average Work


Use Only History
#N/A #N/A Completed Since
since Iteration ID
#N/A #N/A Then
#N/A #N/A 34.4
#N/A #N/A
275 #N/A #N/A Average Standard
309 322 297 (Velocity) Deviation
344 369 318 Override Override
378 417 340
413 464 361
430 487 372 SPERT SPERT
447 511 383 Average Standard
481 558 404 (Velocity) Deviation
516 605 426 34.4 12.4
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Chart

December 13

January 10

February 7

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02
/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 5/2 0/2 4/2 9/2 4/2 9/2 4/2 9/2 3/2
/1 /2 /2 /3 2/ /1 /1 /2 /2 /3 1/ 1/ 1/1 1/1 1/2 1/2 2/
11 11 11 11 1 12 12 12 12 12

Optimistic Conservative

ons
rks. If you modify
spreadsheet.

neral Public License.


Standard
Deviation
Since Then
12.4

To add clarity to your probabilistic finish dates, edit these call-out


objects to explicitly show specific dates, then move them into your
burn-up chart. Doing this can make your burn-up charts easier to
interpret by your stakeholders. Below is an example.

Note: The call-out dates are not automatically calculated!


Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD) Stacked Area Char

Day Date Backlog Developing Testing Deploying Done

You may overwrite Row 6's data, but DO NOT DELETE the data in Row 6 or else Excel formula errors will occur
1 7-Oct 97 3 0 0 0
2 8-Oct 95 3 2 0 0
3 9-Oct 94 3 3 0 0
4 10-Oct 90 3 2 2 3
5 11-Oct 88 2 3 3 4
6 14-Oct 85 4 4 2 5
7 15-Oct 81 3 3 1 12
8 16-Oct 101 3 4 0 14
9 17-Oct 98 4 5 1 14
10 18-Oct 93 3 8 3 15
11 21-Oct 90 3 11 1 17
12 22-Oct 85 4 16 0 18
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30
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37
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Need more rows? Unhide rows 51-305.

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP


Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
m (CFD) Stacked Area Charts Click for help

Need more process steps? Unhide columns H-V. Rename process steps to fit your workflow.
Hide any columns you don't use to remove them from the CFD charts below.

SPERT® Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD), w/Backlog


140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 15-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct

Done Deploying Testing Developing Backlog

SPERT® Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD)


40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 15-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct

Done Deploying Testing Developing


10

0
7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 15-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct

Done Deploying Testing Developing

SPERT® WIP Only


25

20

15

10

0
7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 15-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct

Deploying Testing Developing

For the WIP Only chart above, the example "Done" column is de-selected. Adjust this chart by choosing
only the true work-in-progress (WIP) process steps after you customize this worksheet to your workflow.
Then, right-click on the chart and choose "Select data…" and de-select your "Done" column.

emarks. If you modify


fied spreadsheet.

U General Public License.


Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition VLOOKUP lists of values Click for help

SPERT Most Likely Subjective Terms RSM Min Most Likely Max
Near certainty 0.07071068 1 98 1
Very high confidence 0.1 2 96 2
High confidence 0.14142136 4 92 4
Medium-high confidence 0.17320508 6 88 6
Medium confidence 0.2 8 84 8
Medium-low confidence 0.23452079 11 78 11
Low confidence 0.27386128 15 70 15
Very low confidence 0.31622777 20 60 20
Extremely low confidence 0.35355339 25 50 25
Guesstimate 0.40620192 33 34 33

-5%
-10%
These are the Minimum heuristic -15%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- -20%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed -25%
entry)' worksheets to create a minimum
value for a 3-point estimate. -30%
-35%
You can add, remove, or change values in -40%
this list. -50%
-60%
-70%

10%
20%
These are the Maximum heuristic 30%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- 40%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed 50%
entry)' worksheets to create a maximum
value for a 3-point estimate. 75%
100%
You can add, remove, or change values in 125%
this this list. 150%
175%
200%

Choose which side of the normal curve to display


Show Left-Side Area FALSE Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or G
Show Right-Side Area 1 Show the likelihood that an uncertainty will EXCEED the SPERT estim

Choose whether to show currency formatting


Show currency formatting TRUE
Do not show currency formatting FALSE
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Choose the team capacity for the agile Burn-up Chart


0%
20%
These values are used to pick the team 30%
capacity on the Burn-up Chart worksheet. 40%
You can add, remove, or change values in 50%
this list. 60%
70%
80%

Chart Zoom % (for bell-curve charts)


40%
50%
These values are used to pick the zoom % 75%
on single uncertainty bell-curve charts. 100%
You can add, remove, or change values in 125%
this list. 150%
175%
200%

Choose whether you're a Frequentist or a Bayesian


I'm a Frequentist! 1 You can create "confidence intervals" with Statistical PERT
I'm a Bayesian! 0 You can create "credible intervals" with Statistical PERT
I don't know (or I don't care)! 1 You will create "confidence intervals" with Statistical PERT unless y

Are you a Frequentist or a Bayesian modeler? Hover over the label to see an explanatory note and learn whether
I don't know (or I don't care)! Your choice does not affect any Statistical PERT calculations

Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help

Dropdown values for the Most Likely Confidence selection


Ratio Scale Multiplier used in the SPERT Standard Deviation formula
Information only. Shows the number of trials out of 100 used to create RSMs (see Ratio Scale Modeler)

Hint: Insert new rows inside the middle of a group, not at the top or bottom, so range references
will automatically adjust to include the newly inserted rows.

mates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty Show the percentage of simulated trials that were LESS THAN or EQUAL
y will EXCEED the SPERT estimates below Show the percentage of simulated trials that EXCEEDED the SPERT estim
with Statistical PERT
th Statistical PERT
with Statistical PERT unless you say you're a Bayesian!

atory note and learn whether you're a Frequentist or a Bayesian


tistical PERT calculations

If you modify

l Public License.
tio Scale Modeler)

hat were LESS THAN or EQUAL TO the SPERT estimates above


hat EXCEEDED the SPERT estimates above
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Ratio Scale Modeler

HIGHER Confidence MEDIUM Confidence


Standard Deviation: 8.48528137 Standard Deviation:
Ratio Scale Modifier: 0.07071068 Ratio Scale Modifier:
Mean: 120 Mean:

Minimum Most Likely Maximum Minimum Most Likely


PERT Estimate: 60 120 180 PERT Estimate: 60 120
Distribution: 1 98 1 Distribution: 8 84

1 60 120 180 1 60 120


2 120 2 60 120
3 120 3 60 120
4 120 4 60 120
5 120 5 60 120
6 120 6 60 120
7 120 7 60 120
8 120 8 60 120
9 120 9 120
10 120 10 120
11 120 11 120
12 120 12 120
13 120 13 120
14 120 14 120
15 120 15 120
16 120 16 120
17 120 17 120
18 120 18 120
19 120 19 120
20 120 20 120
21 120 21 120
22 120 22 120
23 120 23 120
24 120 24 120
25 120 25 120
26 120 26 120
27 120 27 120
28 120 28 120
29 120 29 120
30 120 30 120
31 120 31 120
32 120 32 120
33 120 33 120
34 120 34 120
35 120 35 120
36 120 36 120
37 120 37 120
38 120 38 120
39 120 39 120
40 120 40 120
41 120 41 120
42 120 42 120
43 120 43 120
44 120 44 120
45 120 45 120
46 120 46 120
47 120 47 120
48 120 48 120
49 120 49 120
50 120 50 120
51 120 51 120
52 120 52 120
53 120 53 120
54 120 54 120
55 120 55 120
56 120 56 120
57 120 57 120
58 120 58 120
59 120 59 120
60 120 60 120
61 120 61 120
62 120 62 120
63 120 63 120
64 120 64 120
65 120 65 120
66 120 66 120
67 120 67 120
68 120 68 120
69 120 69 120
70 120 70 120
71 120 71 120
72 120 72 120
73 120 73 120
74 120 74 120
75 120 75 120
76 120 76 120
77 120 77 120
78 120 78 120
79 120 79 120
80 120 80 120
81 120 81 120
82 120 82 120
83 120 83 120
84 120 84 120
85 120 85
86 120 86
87 120 87
88 120 88
89 120 89
90 120 90
91 120 91
92 120 92
93 120 93
94 120 94
95 120 95
96 120 96
97 120 97
98 120 98
99 99
100 100
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Version 5.1.2 – © 2015-2024, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help

UM Confidence LOWER Confidence


24 Standard Deviation: 48.7442304
0.2 Ratio Scale Modifier: 0.40620192
120 Mean: 120

Maximum Minimum Most Likely Maximum


180 PERT Estimate: 60 120 180
8 Distribution: 33 34 33

180 1 60 120 180


180 2 60 120 180
180 3 60 120 180
180 4 60 120 180
180 5 60 120 180
180 6 60 120 180
180 7 60 120 180
180 8 60 120 180
9 60 120 180
10 60 120 180
11 60 120 180
12 60 120 180
13 60 120 180
14 60 120 180
15 60 120 180
16 60 120 180
17 60 120 180
18 60 120 180
19 60 120 180
20 60 120 180
21 60 120 180
22 60 120 180
23 60 120 180
24 60 120 180
25 60 120 180
26 60 120 180
27 60 120 180
28 60 120 180
29 60 120 180
30 60 120 180
31 60 120 180
32 60 120 180
33 60 120 180
34 120
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s. If you modify

eral Public License.


Collabinart® Experience Collaboration through Interpretive Art™

At the 2018 PMI Global Conference,


attendees experienced Collabinart®.

Collabinart is a freely-licensed
team-building and training
framework to build collaboration
skills using masterpiece artworks.

Use Collabinart at any point in a


team's journey together. Develop
team camaraderie, active listening
skills, and collaboration skills.
It's fun, free, and effective.

Visit the Collabinart website


to learn more.

The Young Shepherdess (1865)


William-Adolphe Bouguereau
San Diego Museum of Art
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Change Log
Change Date Version Authored By
1/8/24 5.1.2 William W. Davis
Create a new version! Update row 3 above; insert a new row below this one; on the Insert Options action dropdown, choose
1/8/24 5.1.2 William W. Davis
3/4/23 5.1.1 William W. Davis
1/1/22 5.1 William W. Davis
8/14/21 5.0.3 William W. Davis
6/13/21 5.0.2 William W. Davis
6/8/21 5.0.1 William W. Davis
6/5/21 5.0 William W. Davis
4/24/21 4.3.2 William W. Davis
10/30/20 4.3.1 William W. Davis
6/3/20 4.3 William W. Davis
6/2/20 4.2.2 William W. Davis
5/26/20 4.2.1 William W. Davis
5/23/20 4.2 William W. Davis
5/10/20 4.1 William W. Davis
4/26/20 4.0.1a William W. Davis
4/23/20 4.0.1 William W. Davis
1/2/20 4.0 William W. Davis
7/12/19 3.0.3 William W. Davis
7/9/19 3.0.2 William W. Davis
6/30/19 3.0.1 William W. Davis
3/10/19 3.0 William W. Davis
11/17/18 2.4 William W. Davis
9/22/18 2.3 William W. Davis
3/1/17 2.2 William W. Davis
2/3/17 2.1 William W. Davis
1/12/17 2.0.2 William W. Davis
1/3/17 2.0.1 William W. Davis
1/1/17 2.0 William W. Davis
10/6/16 1.4.1 William W. Davis
10/3/16 1.4 William W. Davis
9/21/16 1.3a William W. Davis
9/10/16 1.3 William W. Davis
7/9/16 1.2 William W. Davis
7/3/16 1.1 William W. Davis
10/9/15 1.02 William W. Davis
9/17/15 1.01 William W. Davis
7/31/15 1.00 William W. Davis
®) Normal Edition Change Log
Description
Updated the SPERT Scheduler with updated USA holidays and updated other worksheets with dates, too
above; insert a new row below this one; on the Insert Options action dropdown, choose "Format Same as Below"; copy cells A3:D3; only pa
Updated the SPERT Scheduler with updated USA holidays and updated other worksheets with dates, too
Updated the SPERT Scheduler with updated USA holidays and updated other worksheets with dates, too
Changed copyright footer so modified SPERT spreadsheets done by other authors are easier to legally indicate; updated 2022-
Add call-outs to the Burn-up Chart worksheet. Format "Your SD" values as blue text.
Add Frequentist/Bayesian lookup and dynamic label functionality for ranges
Minor formatting tweaks for greater consistency, a new WIP chart on the CFD Charts worksheet, add SUM to Scheduler Durati
Added: Cumulative flow diagram (CFD) tab, SPERT Normal Scheduler tab, improved appearance of all bell-curve charts, chart z
Updated iteration finish dates on the Agile Burn-up worksheet.
Added a link just on the MC Simulation worksheet to my new Pluralsight course, Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals; upda
Added team capacity calculations to the Agile Burn-up Chart worksheet; fix cell F6 on that worksheet
Modified the agile burn-up chart to use #N/A for cells without values so the Product Backlog and Total Done lines can use mar
Very minor formatting to the agile burn-up chart.
Modify the Agile Burn-up worksheet to avoid having to copy the Product Backlog values to the last iteration finish date
Added more statistics to the MC Simulation worksheet
Fixed Newsletter link in the footer
Replaced Twitter footer link with a SPERT Newsletter link, other minor changes
Added: Monte Carlo simulation tab, Agile Burn-up chart, "Your SD" column for explicit standard deviations, improved formatti
Format and painting title on Collabinart tab.
Format GNU GPL page, replace ™ with ® on Collabinart tab, minor formatting on Agile Forecast tab and GNU footer links (all ta
Added full GNU GPL license, updated footer language.
Added: Sparklines, tri-colored combo charts, Practice Forecasting and Super Simple SPERT tabs, 3-scenario agile forecasting
Changed the % calculation for the whole release in the "Agile Forecast" tab
Added a new tab "Agile Forecast" for agile team estimation/forecasting
Added new tab 'for Beginners' to make it easy and non-threatening to use Statistical PERT for smart people who don't love sta
Added new tab 'Mixed Mode' allowing manual 3-point entry and/or global or line-level heuristics
Removed the dash to read, "Statistical PERT® Normal Edition" and "SPERT® Normal Edition"
Changed '(1-point entry)' & '(3-point entry)' tabs so cells L104 and L106 only show probabilities when a planning estimate is en
Added: '(1-Point entry)' tab to create 3-pt estimates with heuristics, show left/right side probabilities, enhanced formatting.
Added HTTPS to links. Renamed "SPERT Graphs…" to "SPERT Charts…"
Added a pie chart to 'SPERT Graphs…' worksheet and removed "Unskewed" probabilities which used the mode instead of mea
Changed links to HTTPS, added a SPERT logo to the Welcome tab, and changed pie chart so upperbound is red, lowerbound is
Added a confidence interval probability and pie chart for all estimated tasks
Added traffic light indicators to check for a valid 3-point estimate and implied bell-shape of the task
Added new worksheet, SPERT Bell-Curve for Task Duration to show the implied, normal bell-shaped curve
Formatting changes for the PMI article on ProjectManagement.com; updated formulas in cols O - T.
Changed formulas in cells M4:M15, N4:N15 so the Most Likely value in column C is > 0 (not > 4)
Initial release
GNU GENERAL PUBLIC LICENSE
Version 3, 29 June 2007

Copyright (C) 2007 Free Software Foundation, Inc. <https://fsf.org/>


Everyone is permitted to copy and distribute verbatim copies
of this license document, but changing it is not allowed.

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When we speak of free software, we are referring to freedom, not


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When you convey a covered work, you waive any legal power to forbid
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4. Conveying Verbatim Copies.

You may convey verbatim copies of the Program's source code as you
receive it, in any medium, provided that you conspicuously and
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keep intact all notices stating that this License and any
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keep intact all notices of the absence of any warranty; and give all
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You may charge any price or no price for each copy that you convey,
and you may offer support or warranty protection for a fee.

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produce it from the Program, in the form of source code under the
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it, and giving a relevant date.

b) The work must carry prominent notices stating that it is


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c) You must license the entire work, as a whole, under this


License to anyone who comes into possession of a copy. This
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d) If the work has interactive user interfaces, each must display


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6. Conveying Non-Source Forms.

You may convey a covered work in object code form under the terms
of sections 4 and 5, provided that you also convey the
machine-readable Corresponding Source under the terms of this License,
in one of these ways:

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(including a physical distribution medium), accompanied by the
Corresponding Source fixed on a durable physical medium
customarily used for software interchange.

b) Convey the object code in, or embodied in, a physical product


(including a physical distribution medium), accompanied by a
written offer, valid for at least three years and valid for as
long as you offer spare parts or customer support for that product
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copy of the Corresponding Source for all the software in the
product that is covered by this License, on a durable physical
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more than your reasonable cost of physically performing this
conveying of source, or (2) access to copy the
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written offer to provide the Corresponding Source. This
alternative is allowed only occasionally and noncommercially, and
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d) Convey the object code by offering access from a designated


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Corresponding Source conveyed, and Installation Information provided,
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unpacking, reading or copying.

7. Additional Terms.

"Additional permissions" are terms that supplement the terms of this


License by making exceptions from one or more of its conditions.
Additional permissions that are applicable to the entire Program shall
be treated as though they were included in this License, to the extent
that they are valid under applicable law. If additional permissions
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under those permissions, but the entire Program remains governed by
this License without regard to the additional permissions.

When you convey a copy of a covered work, you may at your option
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Notwithstanding any other provision of this License, for material you


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terms of sections 15 and 16 of this License; or

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author attributions in that material or in the Appropriate Legal
Notices displayed by works containing it; or

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where to find the applicable terms.

Additional terms, permissive or non-permissive, may be stated in the


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the above requirements apply either way.

8. Termination.

You may not propagate or modify a covered work except as expressly


provided under this License. Any attempt otherwise to propagate or
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However, if you cease all violation of this License, then your


license from a particular copyright holder is reinstated (a)
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prior to 60 days after the cessation.

Moreover, your license from a particular copyright holder is


reinstated permanently if the copyright holder notifies you of the
violation by some reasonable means, this is the first time you have
received notice of violation of this License (for any work) from that
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your receipt of the notice.

Termination of your rights under this section does not terminate the
licenses of parties who have received copies or rights from you under
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reinstated, you do not qualify to receive new licenses for the same
material under section 10.

9. Acceptance Not Required for Having Copies.

You are not required to accept this License in order to receive or


run a copy of the Program. Ancillary propagation of a covered work
occurring solely as a consequence of using peer-to-peer transmission
to receive a copy likewise does not require acceptance. However,
nothing other than this License grants you permission to propagate or
modify any covered work. These actions infringe copyright if you do
not accept this License. Therefore, by modifying or propagating a
covered work, you indicate your acceptance of this License to do so.

10. Automatic Licensing of Downstream Recipients.

Each time you convey a covered work, the recipient automatically


receives a license from the original licensors, to run, modify and
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An "entity transaction" is a transaction transferring control of an


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the predecessor has it or can get it with reasonable efforts.

You may not impose any further restrictions on the exercise of the
rights granted or affirmed under this License. For example, you may
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rights granted under this License, and you may not initiate litigation
(including a cross-claim or counterclaim in a lawsuit) alleging that
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sale, or importing the Program or any portion of it.

11. Patents.

A "contributor" is a copyright holder who authorizes use under this


License of the Program or a work on which the Program is based. The
work thus licensed is called the contributor's "contributor version".

A contributor's "essential patent claims" are all patent claims


owned or controlled by the contributor, whether already acquired or
hereafter acquired, that would be infringed by some manner, permitted
by this License, of making, using, or selling its contributor version,
but do not include claims that would be infringed only as a
consequence of further modification of the contributor version. For
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patent sublicenses in a manner consistent with the requirements of
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Each contributor grants you a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-free


patent license under the contributor's essential patent claims, to
make, use, sell, offer for sale, import and otherwise run, modify and
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In the following three paragraphs, a "patent license" is any express


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(such as an express permission to practice a patent or covenant not to
sue for patent infringement). To "grant" such a patent license to a
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patent against the party.

If you convey a covered work, knowingly relying on a patent license,


and the Corresponding Source of the work is not available for anyone
to copy, free of charge and under the terms of this License, through a
publicly available network server or other readily accessible means,
then you must either (1) cause the Corresponding Source to be so
available, or (2) arrange to deprive yourself of the benefit of the
patent license for this particular work, or (3) arrange, in a manner
consistent with the requirements of this License, to extend the patent
license to downstream recipients. "Knowingly relying" means you have
actual knowledge that, but for the patent license, your conveying the
covered work in a country, or your recipient's use of the covered work
in a country, would infringe one or more identifiable patents in that
country that you have reason to believe are valid.

If, pursuant to or in connection with a single transaction or


arrangement, you convey, or propagate by procuring conveyance of, a
covered work, and grant a patent license to some of the parties
receiving the covered work authorizing them to use, propagate, modify
or convey a specific copy of the covered work, then the patent license
you grant is automatically extended to all recipients of the covered
work and works based on it.

A patent license is "discriminatory" if it does not include within


the scope of its coverage, prohibits the exercise of, or is
conditioned on the non-exercise of one or more of the rights that are
specifically granted under this License. You may not convey a covered
work if you are a party to an arrangement with a third party that is
in the business of distributing software, under which you make payment
to the third party based on the extent of your activity of conveying
the work, and under which the third party grants, to any of the
parties who would receive the covered work from you, a discriminatory
patent license (a) in connection with copies of the covered work
conveyed by you (or copies made from those copies), or (b) primarily
for and in connection with specific products or compilations that
contain the covered work, unless you entered into that arrangement,
or that patent license was granted, prior to 28 March 2007.

Nothing in this License shall be construed as excluding or limiting


any implied license or other defenses to infringement that may
otherwise be available to you under applicable patent law.

12. No Surrender of Others' Freedom.

If conditions are imposed on you (whether by court order, agreement or


otherwise) that contradict the conditions of this License, they do not
excuse you from the conditions of this License. If you cannot convey a
covered work so as to satisfy simultaneously your obligations under this
License and any other pertinent obligations, then as a consequence you may
not convey it at all. For example, if you agree to terms that obligate you
to collect a royalty for further conveying from those to whom you convey
the Program, the only way you could satisfy both those terms and this
License would be to refrain entirely from conveying the Program.

13. Use with the GNU Affero General Public License.

Notwithstanding any other provision of this License, you have


permission to link or combine any covered work with a work licensed
under version 3 of the GNU Affero General Public License into a single
combined work, and to convey the resulting work. The terms of this
License will continue to apply to the part which is the covered work,
but the special requirements of the GNU Affero General Public License,
section 13, concerning interaction through a network will apply to the
combination as such.

14. Revised Versions of this License.

The Free Software Foundation may publish revised and/or new versions of
the GNU General Public License from time to time. Such new versions will
be similar in spirit to the present version, but may differ in detail to
address new problems or concerns.

Each version is given a distinguishing version number. If the


Program specifies that a certain numbered version of the GNU General
Public License "or any later version" applies to it, you have the
option of following the terms and conditions either of that numbered
version or of any later version published by the Free Software
Foundation. If the Program does not specify a version number of the
GNU General Public License, you may choose any version ever published
by the Free Software Foundation.

If the Program specifies that a proxy can decide which future


versions of the GNU General Public License can be used, that proxy's
public statement of acceptance of a version permanently authorizes you
to choose that version for the Program.

Later license versions may give you additional or different


permissions. However, no additional obligations are imposed on any
author or copyright holder as a result of your choosing to follow a
later version.

15. Disclaimer of Warranty.

THERE IS NO WARRANTY FOR THE PROGRAM, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY


APPLICABLE LAW. EXCEPT WHEN OTHERWISE STATED IN WRITING THE COPYRIGHT
HOLDERS AND/OR OTHER PARTIES PROVIDE THE PROGRAM "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY
OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO,
THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR
PURPOSE. THE ENTIRE RISK AS TO THE QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE OF THE PROGRAM
IS WITH YOU. SHOULD THE PROGRAM PROVE DEFECTIVE, YOU ASSUME THE COST OF
ALL NECESSARY SERVICING, REPAIR OR CORRECTION.

16. Limitation of Liability.

IN NO EVENT UNLESS REQUIRED BY APPLICABLE LAW OR AGREED TO IN WRITING


WILL ANY COPYRIGHT HOLDER, OR ANY OTHER PARTY WHO MODIFIES AND/OR CONVEYS
THE PROGRAM AS PERMITTED ABOVE, BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR DAMAGES, INCLUDING ANY
GENERAL, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF THE
USE OR INABILITY TO USE THE PROGRAM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOSS OF
DATA OR DATA BEING RENDERED INACCURATE OR LOSSES SUSTAINED BY YOU OR THIRD
PARTIES OR A FAILURE OF THE PROGRAM TO OPERATE WITH ANY OTHER PROGRAMS),
EVEN IF SUCH HOLDER OR OTHER PARTY HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUCH DAMAGES.

17. Interpretation of Sections 15 and 16.

If the disclaimer of warranty and limitation of liability provided


above cannot be given local legal effect according to their terms,
reviewing courts shall apply local law that most closely approximates
an absolute waiver of all civil liability in connection with the
Program, unless a warranty or assumption of liability accompanies a
copy of the Program in return for a fee.

END OF TERMS AND CONDITIONS


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