Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214

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Atmospheric Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosres

Combined influence of El Niño, IOD and MJO on the Indian Summer

Monsoon Rainfall: Case Study for the years 1997 and 2015
Satyaban B. Ratna a, *, C.T. Sabeerali a, Tanu Sharma a, b, D.S. Pai c, M. Mohapatra c
a
Climate Research and Services, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India
b
Savitribai Phule Pune University, Maharashtra, India
c
India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: To find out how El Niño, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) affect
El Niño the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), this study looks at two different monsoon years: 1997 (normal
Indian Ocean Dipole ISMR) and 2015 (below-normal ISMR). These two years were ideal for examining their combined effects on the
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
performance of ISMR because they both experienced super El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean and positive
Madden-Julian Oscillation
Sea surface temperature
IOD over the Indian Ocean. In these two years, spatial diversity associated with sea surface temperature (SST)
Large-scale circulation was found over the Indian Ocean as well as the Pacific Ocean. The analysis of the large-scale circulation showed a
distinct difference: the below-normal monsoon in 2015 was due to weak southwesterly flow toward the Indian
landmass as well as anomalous subsidence compared to 1997. Analysis of rainy and dry days shows that 2015
had a greater (less) number of dry (rainy) days compared to 1997, contributing to a below-normal ISMR in 2015.
The study also looked at the role of MJO in the observed rainfall anomalies over India during these two years,
when there was both El Niño and positive IOD. This was done by looking at the composite of rainfall anomalies
for different MJO phases. In 1997, during the monsoon season, MJO showed prolonged activity over the Indian
Ocean (favorable MJO phases), which contributed to normal ISMR. However, in 2015, MJO was found active for
many days over the western Pacific (unfavorable MJO phases), which contributed to below-normal ISMR.
Overall, this case study highlights the complex interactions between El Niño, IOD, MJO, and monsoon dynamics,
emphasizing the need for a comprehensive study of these factors to understand the behaviour of ISMR.

1. Introduction
The Indian Summer Monsoon is one of the most energetic monsoon
systems in the world, experienced during the period of June through
September (JJAS) each year (Sontakke et al., 1993). Approximately
75–90% of the annual rainfall in most parts of the country is received
during this four-month period (Parthasarathy et al., 1994; Shukla and
Huang, 2016). The lives of millions of people across the Indian sub­
continent depend on the annual cycle of monsoon rainfall to satisfy the
water requirement for irrigation, drinking, power generation, etc.
(Rajeevan and Pai, 2007; Saha and Ghosh, 2019). The Indian Summer
Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) displays strong sub-seasonal and interannual
variability (Krishnamurti and Bhalme, 1976; Shukla, 1987; Goswami
et al., 1999; Chatterjee and Goswami, 2004; Wang et al., 2006; Anna­
malai and Slingo, 2001; Sabeerali et al., 2014, 2017). As a result, the
variability of ISMR has a profound impact on the agricultural sector and
socio-economics of the region (Gadgil and Gadgil, 2006; Revadekar and
Preethi, 2012). Given its importance, the accurate and improved pre­
diction of ISMR is still the subject of extensive and active research
among scientists the world over.
The variability of the ISMR is primarily influenced by large-scale
climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
The first two are well-known climate drivers of interannual variability in
the global climate and the third is the climate driver of global intra­
seasonal variability. Previous studies have extensively studied the
impact of each of these climate drivers on ISMR (Ju and Slingo, 1995;
Rasmusson and Carpenter, 1983; Webster and Yang, 1992; Saji et al.,
1999; Ashok et al., 2004; Ajayamohan et al., 2008; Sikka and Ratna,
2011; Pai et al., 2011). However, understanding the relative impact of
these large-scale climate forcings on the ISMR each year is crucial for the
improved predictions of the ISMR. In addition to the aforementioned

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: satyaban.ratna@imd.gov.in (S.B. Ratna).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107214
Received 18 August 2023; Received in revised form 2 December 2023; Accepted 27 December 2023
Available online 2 January 2024
0169-8095/© 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
S.B. Ratna et al.
large-scale forcings, the interannual variability of the ISMR is also
influenced by other climate forcing such as the interannual variability of
the tropical Atlantic Ocean, characterized by phenomena such as the
Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) or Atlantic Niño (Kucharski et al., 2007,
2009; Pottapinjara et al., 2016; Sabeerali et al., 2019, 2022) and the
variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the extratropical Pacific
and Atlantic Oceans (Chattopadhyay et al., 2015). However, the impact
of extra-tropical SST is mainly experienced during the non-ENSO years.
The ENSO is characterized by irregular periodic variations in winds
and SSTs in the tropical central or eastern Pacific Ocean. It is widely
recognized as a significant driver of global climate variations. During the
warm phase of ENSO, known as El Niño, the rainfall over the Indian
landmass tends to be suppressed. Conversely, the cold phase of ENSO,
known as La Niña, often enhances rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
The anomalous changes in the tropical Walker circulation are respon­
sible for the variations in the ISMR during the contrasting phases of
ENSO (Kumar et al., 1999; Ashok et al., 2004). The El Niño events before
1997 (1982 and 1987) badly affected ISMR (14 and 19% deficient
respectively, based on India Meteorological Department record). How­
ever, during 1997 El Niño, ISMR was normal, which indicated a
decreased influence of El Niño on ISMR. This led the research commu­
nity to re-examine the ENSO-ISMR relationship (Kumar et al., 1999;
Krishnamurthy and Goswami, 2000; Sarkar et al., 2004).
Fig. 1. Composite rainfall anomaly (mm/month) for the monsoon season (JJAS) during the period 1951–2022 for a) pure El Niño, b) pure La Niña, c) pure positive
IOD, and d) pure negative IOD events. The dotted marks indicate statistical significance at the 90% level using a two-tail Sudent’s-t-test.
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
The composite rainfall anomaly associated with pure El Niño and
pure La Niña events (the years when IOD is in neutral phase) reveals a
nearly stationary anomalous pattern, i.e. most parts of India receive
above (below) normal rainfall during La Niña (El Niño) events (Fig. 1a
and b). A study by Kumar et al. (1999) shows that the ENSO-ISMR
relationship weakened post the 1980s, attributing this change to
global warming. However, contrary to this hypothesis, the ENSO-ISMR
relationship regained statistical significance after 1999 (Yang and
Huang, 2021; Yu et al., 2021). Adding to this discussion, a recent study
by Mahendra et al. (2023) suggested that changes in the ENSO-ISMR
relationship are influenced by the regional response of ISMR. The
major drivers responsible for the temporal variability of the ENSO-ISMR
relationship across different regions in India are not completely under­
stood till now (Athira et al., 2023).
The IOD is another ocean-atmosphere coupled mode of variability
which is characterized by an anomalous SST difference between the
tropical western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean (Saji et al., 1999).
The IOD has an impact on ISMR and it also influences the ENSO-ISMR
relationship (Ashok et al., 2001; Cherchi et al., 2021). The positive
and negative phases of the IOD exhibit asymmetric rainfall variability
over India (Behera and Ratnam, 2018). Specifically, a positive IOD leads
to enhanced ISMR (Ratna et al., 2021). The composite rainfall anomaly
associated with the pure positive IOD phase and pure negative IOD
S.B. Ratna et al.
phase (the years when ENSO is in neutral phase) shows both positive and
negative rainfall anomalies during the IOD phases in the 1951–2022
period (Fig. 1c, d).
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a major tropical phenome­
non with a typical period of 30–60 days, first discovered by Madden and
Julian in 1971, is one of the leading modes of intraseasonal variability of
ISMR. The MJO plays a significant role in modulating weather and
climate patterns across the globe, especially in the tropics (Zhang, 2005,
2013). It is characterized by the eastward propagation of large areas of
enhanced and suppressed convection along the equator, which exerts a
significant influence on ISMR (Madden and Julian, 1971; Matthews,
2000; Zhang, 2005). Depending on the phase and location of active
MJO, it can have both positive and negative impacts on the ISMR on the
intra-seasonal scale (Pai et al., 2011; Saith and Slingo, 2006; Bhatla
et al., 2017; Dey et al., 2022). The MJO influences ISMR by altering the
distribution of the large-scale convection, circulation, and moisture
transport patterns over the Indo-Pacific region throughout the season
(Singh et al., 1992).
As every El Niño event is different due to its temporal and spatial
diversity (Capotondi et al., 2015) its influence on the monsoon depends
on regional details of the atmospheric response to the SST forcing. Slingo
and Annamalai, (1999) discussed that in the year 1997, despite the
strong El Niño condition, ISMR was normal because of active local
north-south Hadley circulation during the established phase (July and
August) of monsoon, the absence of prolonged break spells, and high
intensity of monsoon depressions during August. In contrast, during
2015 El Niño the ISMR was below-normal. The meridional SST gradient
across the central-eastern Pacific modulated the ISMR response to El
Niño in 2015, through sub-tropical convective activities and the changes
in the east–west Walker circulation over Indo-Pacific region (Mujumdar
et al., 2017). Previous studies show that the modes of interannual
variability, including ENSO (DeMott et al., 2018), IOD (Wilson et al.,
2013), and the modes of intra-seasonal variability, including Quasi-
Biennial Oscillation (QBO, Nishimoto and Yoden, 2017), influence the
intensity and propagation of MJO. On the other hand, some studies show
that the MJO influences dominant modes of climate variability,
including the ENSO (Hendon et al., 2007; Kessler and Kleeman, 2000;
McPhaden, 1999), and IOD (Rao and Yamagata, 2004). It is important to
understand the indirect ocean feedback on temporal scales other than
intraseasonal, which interacts with MJO through the intermediate pro­
cess (Jiang et al., 2020). We did not find any study analyzing the role of
MJO on ISMR in the presence of El Niño and positive IOD. The MJO can
modulate the impact of El Niño and IOD on ISMR during the season,
depending upon its location and intensity. Hence, the performance of
ISMR can, to some extent, be influenced by whether the MJO predom­
inantly resided in its favorable/unfavorable phase for most parts of the
season, based on its year-to-year variability.
This study attempts to understand the combined impact of super El
Niño, positive IOD and MJO on ISMR, with a specific focus on the case
studies of 1997 and 2015. ‘Super El Niño’ (also called extreme El Niño)
events are selected based on the intensity of the SST anomaly in recent
decades near the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Marjani et al.,
2019; Wang and Wang, 2021). The influence of super El Niño on global
weather and climate is significantly different compared to the ordinary
El Niño (Bi et al., 2017; Qian and Guan, 2018). These two years expe­
rienced super El Niño as well as positive IOD conditions. Therefore, this
study gives us the opportunity to understand the ISMR response to the
combined impact of ENSO and IOD, along with the MJO. By utilizing
historical observational data, we seek to elucidate the complex in­
teractions and feedback mechanisms between these three climate
drivers and the ISMR response. The findings of this case study of two
years: 1997 and 2015 will contribute to a better understanding of the
complex feedback mechanisms among different large-scale climate
forcings (ENSO, IOD, and MJO) and their combined influence on ISMR.
In the subsequent sections, we will provide a detailed discussion of
the methodology in Section 2, followed by the presentation of the main
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
results in Section 3. This will be followed by a summary and conclusion
in Section 4.
2. Methodology
To identify El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral ENSO years, we used the
Extended Reconstructed monthly Sea Surface Temperature version 5
(ERSSTv5) data during the June–September (JJAS) season. The ERSST
values are averaged over the Niño3.4 region in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean (5◦ N − 5◦ S and 120◦ W − 170◦ W). The analysis covers the period
from 1981 to 2022. All the seasonal, monthly, and daily anomalies used
in this analysis are calculated with respect to 1981–2022 climatology
except for Fig. 1; This figure incorporates data from the period
1951–2022, in order to encompass a greater number of pure ENSO and
pure IOD events in the composite. We identified pure El Niño (La Niña)
years as those years in which ENSO is in a positive (negative) phase but
IOD is neutral. Similarly, we identified pure positive (negative) IOD
years as those years in which the IOD phase is positive (negative) but the
ENSO is in neutral phase over the Pacific Ocean. The linear trend from
the SST anomaly time series is removed before employing the analysis.
The El Niño (La Niña) years are defined as those in which the detrended
JJAS SST anomalies are greater (smaller) than 0.5 ◦ C (− 0.5 ◦ C) over the
Niño3.4 region. All remaining years, where the detrended JJAS SST
anomalies fall between - 0.5 ◦ C to 0.5 ◦ C, are considered Neutral ENSO
years. To find the phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we calculate
the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The DMI is derived from the difference in
detrended SST anomalies during the JJAS season between two regions:
western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO: 50◦ E− 70◦ E and 100S − 100N)
and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO: 90◦ E− 110◦ E and 100S −
00N). Positive (Negative) IOD years are identified when the DMI, ex­
ceeds 0.245 ◦ C (− 0.245 ◦ C), which is the value for one standard devi­
ation of DMI. All remaining years, where the DMI values fall within the
range of one standard deviation, are considered Neutral IOD years. We
have calculated the percentage rainfall anomaly for all India and iden­
tified the year as above-normal (below-normal) if the percentage rainfall
anomaly is greater (less) than 10% (− 10%). Rest of the years are iden­
tified as normal rainfall years. To check the MJO variability we used the
MJO phase space diagram (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) which was
constructed using the Real-time Multivariate MJO series 1 (RMM1) and
2 (RMM2). These series were generated from the pair of Principle
Component (PC) time series using the combined fields of near-
equatorially averaged 850 hPa, 200 hPa zonal wind, and outgoing
longwave radiation (OLR). During the JJAS seasons of 1997 and 2015,
the number of dry, rainy, and heavy rainfall days are calculated on each
grid point over India. A dry day is defined when the received daily
rainfall is 0 mm, indicating no rainfall occurred on that day. A rainy day
is determined when the daily rainfall value exceeds 2.5 mm. Similarly, a
heavy rainfall day is defined when the daily rainfall value exceeds 64.5
mm as per the criteria followed by the India Meteorological Department
(IMD).
3. Results
3.1. SST pattern over the Pacific and Indian Ocean
The time series of Niño3.4 and IOD indices (DMI) for the JJAS season
from 1981 to 2022 are given in Fig. 2a. It is clear that the years 1997 and
2015 were characterized by the super El Niño events. The El Niño event
for which the SST anomaly over the Niño3.4 region exceeds 1.5 ◦ C in the
JJAS season, is characterized as ‘Super El Niño’ (Marjani et al., 2019;
Wang and Wang, 2021). During the JJAS season of 1997 and 2015, the
Niño3.4 region was the warmest on record placing these two years as
extreme El Niño events since 1950 (http://www.wmo.int; http://www.
bom.gov.au/climate/enso; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). Interest­
ingly, positive IOD conditions were observed during these two years
over the Indian Ocean. We found that during the JJAS season, the DMI in
S.B. Ratna et al.
Fig. 2. Time series of a) Niño3.4 and DMI Index b) percentage rainfall anomaly for the June–September (JJAS) season from 1981 to 2022. Positive and negative
phases of ENSO and IOD are represented for each year.
1997 measured at 0.246 ◦ C, indicating a weaker value compared to 2015
(0.354 ◦ C). It is important to note a previous study’s findings indicating
that in 2015, the DMI was weaker than the mean DMI in 1997 and 1982
as depicted in Fig. 1 of Liu et al., 2017. However, it is crucial to
emphasize that these results specifically pertain to the months of
October and November, not the JJAS season. It is clearly seen from the
time series that 1997 and 2015 are the only two years where super El
Niño and positive IOD was observed. Time series for the percentage
rainfall anomaly for all India during the JJAS season shows that the year
1997 experienced normal ISMR while 2015 was below-normal monsoon
year in the presence of super El Niño and positive IOD (Fig. 2b).
To gain further insight, Fig. 3. provides the spatial pattern of the SST
anomaly for the years 1997, 2015 and the difference (1997–2015). This
figure shows the strength and spatial extent of El Niño in the Pacific
Ocean. The comparison of SST anomaly between 1997 and 2015 in­
dicates that, in 1997, the SST anomaly was warmer over the equatorial
eastern Pacific and colder in the subtropical north-eastern Pacific and
equatorial central Pacific Ocean compared to 2015 (Fig. 3c). Wang and
Wang (2013), classified central Pacific (CP) El Niño in two different
types. The El Nino Modoki (EM-I), which shows warm SST anomalies
over the equatorial CP, and El Niño Modoki II (EM-II), which display an
asymmetric distribution with the warm SST anomalies extending from
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
the subtropical north-eastern Pacific to the equatorial CP. Fig. 3c, sug­
gests the presence of an eastern Pacific (EP), also known as canonical
type El Niño in 1997 and a combination of the EP and El Niño Modoki-II
(EM-II) type El Niño in 2015. Our finding is similar to the previous study
by Paek et al. (2017) which showed that during the 2015 El Niño, the
center of positive SST anomalies was westward with mixed character­
istics of the CP El Niño and EP El Niño.
There are noticeable variations in SST anomalies over the eastern
and western equatorial Indian Oceans. The association of ISMR with the
equatorial Indian Ocean is as important as its association with the
equatorial Pacific Ocean (Gadgil et al., 2003). In 2015, the SST anomaly
over the EEIO was warmer compared to 1997 (Fig. 3a and b). A warm
EEIO drives easterly winds in the Indo–Pacific sector as a Gill response
and resultant circulation opposes the monsoon low-level circulation
hence weakening the ISMR in 2015 (Goswami, 2023). It was also seen
that during 1997, there were negative OLR anomalies over the WEIO
(Fig. S1b and S1f), which indicates enhanced convection over WEIO;
favors ISMR (Gadgil et al., 2004). Also, tropical climate modes across the
globe influence the pressure gradient over the Indian Ocean in zonal as
well as meridional direction, leading to the modulation in ISMR
(Chakraborty and Singhai, 2021). It was seen that there was a negative
sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly near the north Indian region and a
S.B. Ratna et al. Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214

Fig. 3. SST anomaly (color contour, in ◦ C) and wind vector anomaly (m s− 1) at 850 hPa during June-Sept Season for the years a) 1997, b) 2015 and c) difference
between 1997 and 2015.

positive SLP over the Indian Ocean, creating a stronger north-south/ equatorial flow and strengthened the moisture-containing low-level
meridional gradient in 1997 (Fig. S1a) compared to 2015 (Fig. S1c). south-westerly winds which contributed to higher rainfall in 1997
The stronger north-south pressure gradient enhanced the cross- compared to 2015.

Fig. 4. Monthly SST anomaly over Niño3.4, Western Equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO), Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), and Dipole Mode Index (DMI: SST
anomaly difference WEIO-EEIO) for the years a) 1997 and b) 2015.

5
S.B. Ratna et al.
The monthly evolution of the Niño3.4 index indicates a similar
evolution of El Niño in both 1997 and 2015 (Fig. 4). In both years, El
Niño started around April–May and gradually strengthened as the
monsoon season progressed. Similarly, from June to September the
monthly evolution of IOD was quite similar in both 1997 and 2015, with
a slight difference in the beginning of IOD between these two years. In
1997, the IOD evolved slowly around June and maintained its strength
during the monsoon season of that year (Fig. 4a). However, in 2015, the
IOD peaked in July and more or less maintained its strength throughout
the monsoon season. The main difference was observed after the
monsoon season (October, November and December). After monsoon
season, the DMI signal peaked in 1997 whereas DMI weakened and
dropped to almost neutral IOD condition in 2015 (Fig. 4b). The evolu­
tion of El Niño and positive IOD events during the JJAS season in the
years 1997 and 2015 and the similarity in their intensity during these
two years give a unique opportunity to study the combined impact of El
Niño and IOD on the ISMR characteristics. By analyzing these specific
years in detail, we can gain more insights into how the MJO modulates
the combined and concurrent impact of El Niño and positive IOD on the
ISMR.
3.2. Observed ISMR features of 1997 and 2015
The spatial pattern of rainfall during the JJAS season for these two
years exhibited significant variations across different parts of India
(Fig. 5). In 1997, despite the presence of the super El Niño, the country
received normal rainfall in the monsoon season (Fig. 2b). However, the
spatial distribution of rainfall in 1997 varied significantly, with dry and
wet anomalies over different parts of the country. Most parts of penin­
sular India and the foothills of the Himalayas faced below-normal
rainfall in the 1997 monsoon season (Fig. 5a). Conversely, most parts
of east-central India, west-central India, the west coast of India, and
extreme north India received above-normal rainfall in the 1997
monsoon season (Fig. 5a). In contrast, in 2015, despite the presence of
positive IOD conditions, the rainfall during the monsoon season was
below-normal in most parts of the country (Fig. 5f). The rainfall was
above-normal in some areas in northwest India and in a few pockets of
northeast India and adjoining east India (Fig. 5f) and the country as a
whole experienced below-normal rainfall in 2015 (Fig. 2b). The analysis
above also indicates that the impact on northwest India is almost the
same for both years (1997 and 2015), but the major difference seems to
be over central India, particularly in the eastern part of central India.
The monthly distribution of rainfall in 1997 shows above-normal
rainfall in the north and northwest during June and August months
(Fig. 5b and Fig. 5d), whereas the same regions received below-normal
rainfall during July and September (Fig. 5c and Fig. 5e). Also, the central
region received below-normal rainfall in June and September (Fig. 5b
and e), but normal rainfall in July and August (Fig. 5c and d). The South
Peninsula of India, which received below-normal rainfall from June to
August (Fig.5b, c, and d), made a recovery and had above-normal
rainfall in September (Fig. 5e). The monthly rainfall distribution in
June 2015 (Fig. 5g) shows that most parts of the country received above-
normal rainfall, resulting in above average rainfall for India as a whole
during that particular month. However, the all-India average rainfall
was below normal in July, August, and September 2015. In July 2015,
the rainfall was deficient in peninsular India, the foothills of the
Himalayas, and northeast India (Fig. 5h). However, central India and
northwest India experienced deficient rainfall in August and September
2015 (Fig. 5i and j). This pattern of deficient rainfall deviated from the
expected pattern of rainfall during El Niño years. Overall, the rainfall
was better during the active monsoon months (July and August) in 1997
whereas the rainfall was better during the onset and withdrawal months
(June and September) in 2015. Climatologically, India receives more
rainfall in July and August, compared to June and September. So, the
higher rainfall received in India during the active monsoon months in
1997 contributed to more seasonal rainfall compared to 2015.
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Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
We also verified the daily rainfall anomaly series for all India and the
core monsoon zone (18◦ N to 28◦ N and 65◦ E to 88◦ E; Rajeevan et al.,
2010) for the years 1997 and 2015 and compared them with the
climatology (Fig. 6). It is evident that there were a greater number of
break spells (normalized rainfall anomaly over core monsoon zone, less
than − 1 continuously for three or more days) during the 2015 monsoon
season compared to 1997. The increased occurrence of break spells in
2015 contributed to reduced rainfall in 2015 compared to 1997.
As there are significant differences in the spatial distribution of
seasonal rainfall anomalies between the years 1997 and 2015 over India,
we also explored the total number of rainy days, dry days, and heavy
rainfall days that contributed to seasonal mean rainfall (Fig. 7). In 2015,
the total number of dry days was higher and more widespread compared
to 1997 (Fig. 7a, b, and c), especially in central and northern India,
representing the differences in the seasonal rainfall anomaly.
Conversely, in 1997, the dry days were more frequent in the northern
parts of south peninsular India compared to 2015. However, the number
of rainy days was higher in 1997 compared to 2015, particularly in
northeast India, central India, and extreme north India (Fig. 7d, e, and f).
Moreover, the spatial pattern of heavy rainfall days displays a minimal
difference between 1997 and 2015, except for a higher number of heavy
rainfall days in 1997 along the west coast of India (Fig. 7g, h, and i). The
distribution of the number of dry days and rainy days in these two years
contributed to the seasonal total rainfall. It was clearly observed that in
2015, a higher number of dry days and a lower number of rainy days
contributed to below-normal rainfall compared to 1997. Also, the large
number of heavy rainfall days over the Western Ghat regions in 1997
might also have contributed to the higher seasonal total rainfall in 1997
compared to 2015 (Fig. 7g, h, and i).
In short, despite the presence of super El Niño and positive IOD
conditions in 1997 and 2015, the rainfall over India was normal in 1997,
while it was below-normal in 2015. This contrast in the spatial distri­
bution of rainfall patterns, which varied significantly between 1997 and
2015, highlights the complex nature of monsoon dynamics and other
factors influencing the ISMR.
3.3. Large-scale circulation
The general hypothesis suggests that the strength of ISMR is influ­
enced by the modulation of the east-west oriented Walker circulation
during ENSO years. During El Niño years, there is a subsidence over the
west Pacific and southeast Asia, including India, while an anomalous
ascending motion occurs over the east/central Pacific due to warm SST
anomalies, and vice versa during La Niña years (Kumar et al., 1999; Pai
et al., 2014; Cherchi et al., 2021). The changes in Walker circulation
during the El Niño years of 1997 and 2015 are clearly evident in Figs. 8
and 9. In both 1997 and 2015, there was a significant longitudinal shift
in the Walker cell, which corresponded to the eastward movement of
warm SST anomalies. It is characterized by an anomalous upward mo­
tion over the eastern and central Pacific accompanied by a compensating
anomalous downward motion over the eastern hemisphere, especially
over the west Pacific and east Indian Ocean regions (Fig. 8). However, in
2015, the upward motion over the eastern and central Pacific, as well as
the downward motion over the western Pacific and east Indian Ocean
regions, were considerably stronger compared to 1997. In 2015, an
anomalous downward motion was witnessed along the Indian longi­
tudes, which was stronger than in 1997. This pattern is further
confirmed by the vertical velocity anomaly plot at 500 hPa (Fig. 9). In
1997, a weak subsidence was noted over central and northwest India at
500 hPa, while the rest of the region experienced a weak upward mo­
tion, as evident in 500 hPa omega anomaly (Fig. 9a). In contrast, in
2015, the omega at 500 hPa showed anomalously strong subsidence
over most of the Indian subcontinent, excluding northeast India, when
compared to 1997 (Fig. 9). This higher subsidence in 2015 over the
Indian landmass coincided with lesser rainfall over India in 2015
compared to 1997 (Fig. 5a and f).
S.B. Ratna et al. Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214

Fig. 5. Rainfall anomaly (mm/month) for the 1997 (a) JJAS season, (b) June, (c) July, (d) August, and (e) September. Equivalent anomalies for the year 2015 are
represented in (f) to (j), respectively. Panels (k) to (o) depict the difference between 1997 and 2015 in terms of rainfall anomalies, corresponding to the same months
as in panels (a) to (e).

7
S.B. Ratna et al.
Fig. 6. Daily time series for all India (a and c) and core monsoon zone (b and d) for the monsoon season (1 June to 30 September rainfall, in mm day − 1) for the years
1997 and 2015.
Fig. 10 shows the 850 hPa velocity potential anomalies during 1997
and 2015. Consistent with the modulation of Walker cell anomalies
during these years, the 850 hPa velocity potential shows anomalous
convergence over the east and central Pacific, coupled with anomalous
divergent motion over the west Pacific and southeast Asian region. It is
seen that the extent of the divergent region over the Indian landmass
was less pronounced in 1997 compared to 2015. Interestingly, in 2015, a
significant portion of India showed an anomalous divergence at lower
levels compared to 1997 (Fig. 10). Although, there was an El Niño
impact for both years, in 1997, anomalous westerlies (Fig. 9a and
Fig. S1a) entering the Indian landmass, resulting in more moisture
convergence into the region, and contributed to a higher number of
heavy rainfall days over the western Ghats (Fig. 7g-i) and also to the
total seasonal rainfall (Fig. 5a, f and k). In comparison, in 2015, in the
absence of such low-level anomalous westerlies (Fig. 9b and Fig. S1b),
there were fewer heavy rainfall days over the western Ghats as well as
less seasonal total rainfall. The role of low-level westerlies in these two
seasons may be due to the differences in the strength and patterns of the
SST anomaly over the Arabian Sea associated with the positive IOD
(Fig. 3a and b). This is because, although both the years are associated
with positive IOD, the SST anomaly over the EEIO is negative (positive)
in 1997(2015) as shown in Fig. 3a and b. A study by Yadav and Roxy
(2019) discusses that warm SST over EEIO has a negative correlation
with the rainfall over the northern parts of India.
These observations bring out the distinct differences in the Walker
circulation and atmospheric dynamics between the El Niño events of
1997 and 2015. The stronger upward and downward motions over the
western hemisphere and eastern hemisphere in 2015 suggest a stronger
and more localized impact on weather patterns, which may have
contributed to the strong drought-like conditions over India in 2015.
3.4. MJO characteristics
Despite the different temporal scales of ENSO, IOD and MJO, they
exhibit close interrelationship and influence weather patterns over
different parts of the globe. Previous studies show that the MJO in­
fluences dominant modes of climate variability, including the ENSO
(Hendon et al., 2007; Kessler and Kleeman, 2000; McPhaden, 1999), and
IOD (Rao and Yamagata, 2004). On the other hand, the year-to-year
variability of MJO is found to be influenced by ENSO (Hendon et al.,
2007; Marshall et al., 2016) through the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF)
and air-sea interactions, connecting the tropical Pacific and Indian
Oceans (Gordon, 2005). Recently, many researchers have focused on the
relationship between MJO and two types of El Niño: central Pacific (CP)
and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño (Feng et al., 2015; Yuan et al., 2015). A
significant variation in the spatial distribution of rainfall was observed
between the years 1997 and 2015 against the backdrop of El Niño and
8
Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
positive IOD events. So, to further investigate the factors contributing to
the rainfall variability during these two years, the role of the MJO was
explored.
The daily anomalies of zonal wind at 850 hPa show the active
presence of westerly anomalies over the Pacific Ocean during August
and September 1997, in contrast, a westerly anomaly was observed in
July 2015 but gradually weakened thereafter (Fig. S2). The power
spectrum analysis done by Li et al. (2023) for the years 1997 and 2015
revealed considerable difference in the MJO periodicity. Their analysis
highlighted strong peaks of MJO at 45 days and 90 days periods from
February to September 1997, while in 2015, peaks were observed at 40
days and 60 days periods.
The MJO phase diagram (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) for the period
of 1 June to 30 September in 1997 and 2015 is analyzed (Fig. 11). In
1997, the MJO was in Phases 7 and 8 during June and then transitioned
to Phases 1 and 2. In July, it progressed from phase 3 to phase 6. Toward
the end of July, the MJO weakened and maintained a weak intensity
until the end of the monsoon season (i.e., for the full months of August
and September). It is worth noting that MJO phases 3–6 are known to be
favorable phases for ISMR, as these phases typically bring a good
amount of rainfall to India during the monsoon period (Pai et al., 2011).
Conversely, phases 7, 8, 1, and 2 are known to be unfavorable phases for
the ISMR. The strong MJO signal is defined, when the RMM index is
equal or >1. As per the RMM phase space diagram, the MJO was in
favorable phases (Phases 3 to 6) for 27 days during the monsoon season
of 1997 (Table 1), which coincided with good rainfall over India
(although there were regions that also received negative rainfall
anomalies), as shown in Figs. 11 and 12. In 1997, it was seen that the
MJO was in the unfavorable phases (Phases 7, 8,1 and 2) for 30 days
(Table 1), coincident with below-normal rainfall over most parts of India
(Fig. 12).
In June 2015, the MJO travelled from Phase 1 to 6, and then in July,
it was in Phases 7, 8, 1, and 2. However, during August and September,
the MJO mostly remained in a weak phase. Analysis of the MJO phase
diagram shows that the MJO was in favorable phases for 27 days during
the monsoon season of 2015, while there were 52 days where the MJO
was in unfavorable phases (Table 1). A previous study by Chen et al.
(2016) shows that during the CP El Niño, the horizontal as well as
vertical moisture advection over the CP is stronger than during the EP El
Niño, resulting in the further eastward propagation of the MJO. During
2015, the extratropical circulations originated from northeastern Pa­
cific, reached the equator and enhanced the activities of MJO over the
Pacific (Li et al., 2023), which are unfavorable for ISMR. India received
good rainfall activity during the favorable phases (Phase 3, 4, and 5), as
shown in Fig. 12. However, the large number of unfavorable days during
phases 7, 8, 2 and 1 (Fig. 11) contributed to a large deficiency in sea­
sonal rainfall (Fig. 5f).
S.B. Ratna et al. Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214

Fig. 7. The number of dry days (daily rainfall = 0 mm) during the JJAS season of a) 1997 b) 2015 and c) the difference between 1997 and 2015. d), e), f) and g), h),
i) are the same as a), b), and c) but for the number of rainy days (daily rainfall >2.4 mm) and the number of heavy rainfall days (daily rainfall >64.5 mm)
respectively.

By comparing the MJO-associated rainfall in 1997 and 2015, it was
observed that India received more rainfall in 2015 during the favorable
phases compared to 1997. However, the negative rainfall anomaly was
stronger in 2015 during unfavorable phases compared to 1997. This
indicates that although there was the same number of MJO favorable
days in 1997 and 2015, the large number of unfavorable days in 2015
led to a significant deficiency in rainfall over India, contributing to
below-normal seasonal rainfall over India.
4. Summary and conclusions
It is well known that ENSO has a negative relationship with ISMR,
whereas there is an asymmetric relationship between IOD and rainfall
conditions in different parts of India. However, it is complex to under­
stand the rainfall variability over India when multiple climate modes
such as ENSO and IOD co-occurred during the same season.
Many studies discuss the individual impacts of the ENSO, IOD, and
MJO on ISMR but the complex interplay among them is not fully un­
derstood. While some studies show little relationship between the MJO

9
S.B. Ratna et al.
Fig. 8. Walker circulation anomalies over the Indo-Pacific region during a)
1997 and b) 2015 JJAS monsoon season. Color contour shows vertical wind
velocity (w ✕ 103 m s− 1, positive (negative) values represent subsidence (rising
motion)). Vectors are plotted using zonal (u) and vertical (w) wind, from 1000
hPa to 100 hPa. Values averaged over the latitude range of 30 0N-5 0S.
Fig. 9. Vertical wind velocity anomaly (102 ✕ Pa s− 1, positive (negative) values represent subsidence (rising motion)) at 500 hPa and horizontal wind vector
anomaly (m s− 1) at 850 hPa for the years a) 1997 and b) 2015 monsoon season.
Fig. 10. Velocity Potential Anomaly Composite (shaded, 106 ✕ m2 s− 1) and divergent wind vector (m s− 1) at 850 hPa for the years a) 1997 and b) 2015 during the
JJAS monsoon season.
10
Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
and ENSO (Slingo and Annamalai, 1999; Son et al., 2016), others show
that MJO amplitude and propagation can modulate ENSO-like large-
scale mode (DeMott et al., 2018; Gonzalez and Jiang, 2019). The MJO-
ENSO relationship is further complicated by the diversity of ENSO
events (Gushchina and Dewitte, 2012; Feng et al., 2015). Moreover,
there are not many studies that has discussed the role of MJO on the
ISMR in the presence of super El Niño and positive IOD in the same
season. In this study, we investigate the combined influence of super El
Niño and positive IOD that drive the interannual variability of ISMR
along with the eastward moving MJO that drives the intra-seasonal
variability of the ISMR. Our goal in this study is to examine the
distinct performance of ISMR during 1997 and 2015 which coincides
with super El Niño and positive IOD. Using the observational data of the
recent 40 years, we found both 1997 and 2015, to be the strongest El
Niño events in history, accompanied by positive IOD conditions, making
them ideal for studying the combined effect of the three climate drivers
(ENSO, IOD, and MJO) on ISMR.
The observed analysis revealed that despite the presence of the same
climate drivers (El Niño and positive IOD) in 1997 and 2015, 1997 was a
normal monsoon year, whereas 2015 was a below-normal monsoon year
S.B. Ratna et al.
Fig. 11. MJO phase space plot for the years a) 1997 and b) 2015.
Table 1
The number of days with favorable and unfavorable phases during the JJAS seasons of 1997 and 2015.
Number of Days 1997
Jun Jul Aug
Favorable MJO Phase 2 23 – 2
(3, 4, 5, 6)
Unfavorable MJO Phase (1, 2, 7, 8) 26 – 1
for the Indian region. In 1997, despite the strongest El Niño the Indian
subcontinent received normal rainfall during the monsoon season, but
with significant spatial variations. In contrast, 2015 witnessed below-
normal rainfall across most parts of the country, with only a few areas
in the northwest and pockets of northeast and east India receiving
above-normal rainfall. The results showed that 2015 had a higher
number of dry days, fewer rainy days, and more days with unfavorable
MJO phases compared to 1997, which led to below-normal monsoon
rainfall in India. Such results encourage future studies to analyze mul­
tiscale (from the diurnal to ENSO cycles) interactions (e.g. Yoneyama
and Zhang, 2020).
A schematic highlighting the features and mechanism regulating
ISMR during 1997 and 2015, is represented in Fig. 13. The distribution
of SST anomalies during these years revealed the spatial variation of El
Niño. The year 1997 was EP El Niño whereas 2015 was a combination of
the EP type (canonical) El Niño and CP type or El Nino Modoki. The
occurrence of the CP type El Niño in 2015 was also highlighted in pre­
vious studies (Mujumdar et al., 2017; Marshall et al., 2016; Paek et al.,
2017). We also observed significant variations in the SST anomalies over
the EEIO. In 1997, EEIO experienced a negative SST anomaly. The study
by Behera and Ratnam (2018) and Ratna et al. (2021) discuss that the
low-level divergence associated with the negative SST anomaly over the
EEIO could enhance the low-level westerlies and southerlies from the
EEIO toward India. Despite the positive IOD and super El Niño condi­
tions, the spatial pattern of rainfall during the summer monsoon seasons
(JJAS) of 1997 and 2015 showed notable variations between these two
years. Due to the zonal pressure gradient, the east-west-oriented Walker
cell associated with El Niño and IOD conditions in the Indo-Pacific
oceans contributed to the strong anomalous subsidence over most
parts of the Indian subcontinent in 2015.
Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
2015
Sep JJAS Jun Jul Aug Sep JJAS
27 20 – – 7 27
3 30 10 30 7 5 52
Apart from this, the negative OLR anomaly over the WEIO and the
stronger north-south pressure gradient enhances the strength of the
moisture-containing low-level south-westerly winds which play a
crucial role in ISMR, contributing to a normal monsoon year in 1997.
However, during 2015, the north-south pressure gradient was weak and
the EEIO was relatively warmer, which led to weaker divergence and
weaker low-level westerly flow (e.g. Mujumdar et al., 2017) toward the
Indian landmass, and hence resulted in below-normal monsoon rainfall.
Although, there was El Niño and positive IOD present, apart from the
SST variations, the MJO played a crucial role in both years. In 1997 MJO
activity was prominent near the Indian Ocean during the monsoon
season, which is favorable for ISMR. In contrast to this, during 2015
MJO showed prolonged activity near the western Pacific Ocean which is
considered an unfavorable phase for ISMR. Although 2015 was not pure
CP El Niño but a combination of EP and CP El Niño, our findings for the
case study of these two years are consistent with a prior study conducted
by Wang et al. (2018) which shows that during EP (CP) El Niño years the
MJO shows weaker (stronger) activity over the western Pacific.
Despite the attempt to understand the combined influence of the
various climate drivers, it is important to acknowledge some limitations
of our study. Firstly, this study focuses for the year 1997 and 2015 as
both are the two only super El Niño years with a Niño3.4 index of
>1.5 ◦ C and all the results are based on the comparative analysis of these
two years. Secondly, 1982 was also an El Niño and positive IOD year,
which we did not include in our analysis because El Niño has a weaker
intensity (with a Niño3.4 index of <1 ◦ C). Also, the MJO phase diagram
data is available only from 1974 which gives limited opportunities to
include a larger number of case studies together with El Niño and pos­
itive IOD. Lastly, our results are based on the observational and rean­
alysis datasets. So, for a deeper understanding of the phenomenon and
11
S.B. Ratna et al.
Fig. 12. Daily rainfall anomaly composites (mm) for 8 phases of MJO during the JJAS seasons of a) 1997 and b) 2015.
for identifying the relative contributions of individual factor, some
modeling studies are required, which is beyond the scope of this study.
However, Marshall et al. (2016) conducted a model study revealing that
the anomalous SST in the central Pacific during the 2015 El Niño
stimulated intensified MJO activity in the western Pacific. This coincides
with our observed analysis that MJO was active over western Pacific for
large number of days during monsoon season of 2015, which was un­
favorable for ISMR.
In summary, the years 1997 and 2015, with super El Niño and pos­
itive IOD conditions, displayed significant differences in the spatial
distribution of rainfall over India. It was observed that the phases of
MJO have a crucial role in shaping the rainfall pattern over India during
such El Niño and positive IOD years. These findings highlight the com­
plex nature of monsoon dynamics and the influence of various factors,
including El Niño, positive IOD, MJO, and atmospheric circulation
patterns. The contrasting rainfall patterns between 1997 and 2015
emphasize the need for a comprehensive understanding of these factors
12
Atmospheric Research 299 (2024) 107214
and their complex interplay to better understand the monsoon rainfall
variability over India.
Funding statement
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding
agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Satyaban B. Ratna: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investiga­
tion, Methodology, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review
& editing. C.T. Sabeerali: Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
editing. Tanu Sharma: Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft,
Writing – review & editing. D.S. Pai: Writing – review & editing. M.
Mohapatra: Writing – review & editing.
S.B. Ratna et al.
Fig. 13. Schematic diagram representing the factors contributing to normal ISMR during 1997 and below-normal ISMR during 2015. The oceanic and atmospheric
conditions over the Indo-Pacific region are shown. Over the ocean, the red (blue) shading represents a positive (negative) SST anomaly. Thickness of red (upward
motion) and blue (subsidence) arrows represent the strength of Walker circulation. The locations of prolonged MJO activity and strength of southwesterly flow are
just illustrations and not meant to be precise. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of
this article.)
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare no competing interest.
Data availability
We used the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Extended Reconstructed monthly Sea Surface Temperature
version 5 (ERSSTv5) dataset (Huang et al., 2017) for the period
1981–2022, which is accessible on their website at https://psl.noaa.gov.
We also used IMD high spatial resolution (0.25◦ x 0.25◦ ) gridded rainfall
data for the period 1981–2022 (Pai et al., 2014) available at
https://www.imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Griddata/Rainfall_25_NetCDF.
html. For zonal (u), meridional (v), and vertical wind velocity (omega),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and Outgoing Long Radiation (OLR), we used
monthly mean Reanalysis 1 data (Kalnay et al., 1996) for the period
1981–2022 provided by the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and
is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.
html. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index was obtained from
the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) (http://www.bom.gov.
au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt).
Acknowledgments
The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for the valuable
comments and suggestions which helped in improving the quality of the
manuscript. Tanu Sharma acknowledges the research fellowship support
from the MRFP (Ministry of Earth Sciences Research Fellowship Pro­
gram) Project, MoES, Government of India.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107214.
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