Professional Documents
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The Dangers
of Buybacks
MITIGATING COMMON PITFALLS
S E P T E M B E R 2020
MEMBERS
4 Executive Summary
7 Advantages
8 Pitfalls
13 Conclusion
14 Acknowledgments
15 Buybacks Playbook
16 References
This document benefited from the insight and advice of FCLTGlobal’s Members and other experts. We are grateful
for all the input we have received, but the final document is our own and the views expressed do not necessarily
represent the views of FCLTGlobal’s Members or others. The information in this article is true and accurate to the
best of FCLTGlobal’s knowledge. All recommendations are made without guarantee on the part of FCLTGlobal.
Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader; FCLTGlobal disclaims any liability
in connection with the use of this article.
Buybacks have experienced a meteoric rise in • Buybacks can add long-term value when the
popularity since the turn of the twenty-first century, issues above are mitigated and key criteria are
overtaking dividends as the preferred means to met. These criteria include:
return capital to shareholders in jurisdictions like
– alignment with a company’s long-term plan
the US. In 2019 alone, corporations spent more than
USD 1.2 trillion globally on buybacks.1 – adequate liquidity buffers
But the rise of buybacks has been riddled with – f ulfillment of additional investment needs in
controversy. Academics, practitioners, and talent, R&D, CapEx, and M&A
politicians alike have maligned the use of buybacks,
taking issue with their potential contribution to The Dangers of Buybacks: Mitigating Common
income inequality, underinvestment in innovation, Pitfalls, provides a fuller explanation of these
and use for personal enrichment. Buybacks and findings, beginning with an examination of why
their implications for the long-term strength of the buybacks are attractive to companies, followed
economy are controversial but not well understood. by a deeper look at their pitfalls, and concluding
A deeper look at the topic reveals the following: with practical tools and guidelines for companies,
investors, and policymakers to evaluate buybacks
• B
uybacks have become a global phenomenon over on their long-term merits.
the past 20 years, with many companies viewing
them as an attractive alternative to dividends in
returning capital to shareholders. They are flexible,
recycle excess cash to the economy, and provide
tax advantages in certain jurisdictions.
• B
uybacks have a number of pitfalls if not
used carefully and in the right circumstances.
These include:
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NON-US US
SHAREHOLDERS BOARD
1. Buybacks have become a global tool—in 2018, their usage rate topped 50 percent in 16 different countries
across six continents. (see Figure 3)
0% 100%
4%
3%
Of note, many companies do temporarily
2%
cut or suspend dividends during a crisis for
1%
liquidity purposes.
0%
United China Japan United France Germany Australia
States Kingdom
BUYBACKS DIVIDEN DS
70%
43%
Buybacks recycle cash, freeing “trapped cash” from
60% firms in mature or capital-light industries with limited
50%
investment opportunities, allowing shareholders to
40% 15%
reinvest in the next growing company.12 No matter
30%
20%
31% 31% how much money cash-rich companies like Apple
22%
10% invest back into their own company, at some point
0% 3% they will be left with more cash than they can
Financials Information Utilities
Technology productively spend.13 Constraining a company’s
B U Y B A C K S D I V I D E N D S A L L OT H E R ability to return cash to shareholders could lead a
company to make poor investments in the absence
E xe cu t i ve co m p e n s a t i o n g a m i n g
A common criticism of buybacks is that they can
be used by management to manipulate earnings
E m p l oye e t r a d i n g
per share (EPS), which could be used to inflate
their own compensation metrics and hit quarterly One reason buybacks were all but illegal in many
guidance targets.19,20,21 Indeed, according to jurisdictions up until the 1980s was that they were
Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), as recently considered a form of stock manipulation. The concern
as 2019, more than 30 percent of all compensation was that employees with inside knowledge of the
plans were linked to EPS.22 company, usually executives, could trade around a
buyback announcement. Rule 10B-18 legalized share
By using buybacks to reduce the denominator repurchases under specific conditions to discourage
(shares outstanding), management can boost a employees from insider trading.
company’s EPS in the short run, assuming the
numerator (earnings) remains unchanged.23 While regulations to deter employee trading still
exist, many have found loopholes around them,
While increasing EPS may look attractive, doing especially in the US. As an example, current rules
so via buybacks alone is hard to sustain in the long prevent employees from trading on the same day
run: companies create more value through organic as a buyback announcement, but executives can
revenue growth and margin improvement.24 Artificially announce a buyback, then sell their shares a few
boosting EPS can be short-term in nature, and can days later. A 2018 US Securities and Exchange
even siphon capital away from growth initiatives.25 Commission (SEC) study found that insiders
were twice as likely to sell on the days following
While buybacks can contribute to executive a buyback announcement as they were in the
compensation gaming, it is worth noting, however, days leading up to the announcement, and that
Japan Week before year’s end No higher than last 25 percent of daily volume Daily Yes
day’s price
United Kingdom None No higher than 5 15 percent of total shares Daily Yes
percent of day’s price
France 15 days before earnings No higher than 10 percent of total shares, Monthly Yes
announcement daily high 25 percent of daily volume
Canada None No higher than most 5 percent of total shares, Monthly Yes
recent price 10 percent of public float
Hong Kong One month before None 10 percent of total Daily Yes
earnings announcement shares, 25 percent
of monthly volume
Figure 6. MSCI All Country World Index Debt Issuance vs. Buybacks ($B USD)41
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-500
-1,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Our research has shown that chronic To find the right balance, the following tools and
overdistribution of capital is associated guidelines could help companies, investors, and
with lower return on invested capital.44 policymakers evaluate the merits of buybacks for
While returning capital to shareholders the long term.
makes sense in some circumstances,
overdistribution can be problematic, C O M PA N I E S
potentially leaving firms with thin cash buffers
Companies can consider a buyback’s implications for
and negative book equity. Faced with a
strategy and performance, executive compensation,
crisis like COVID-19, companies that played
and investor relations communications in order to
too close to the edge had lower levels of
evaluate a buyback on its merits.
corporate resilience.45
S t r a t e g y a n d p e r f o rm a n ce
When it comes to strategy and performance,
corporate boards can assess whether the buyback
plan makes sense in light of the overall capital
Buybacks are a powerful but dangerous tool. allocation strategy. For an apples-to-apples
Understanding their pitfalls and mitigating their comparison, buyback return-on-investment (ROI)
downsides is critical to companies’ using buybacks can be compared to the discounted future ROI
in a manner that furthers their long-term goals. from other uses of cash—including investments in
talent, R&D, CapEx, and M&A. Firms could choose
to pursue buybacks in situations in which there
are no superior investment alternatives.46 To avoid
the pitfalls of poor repurchase timing, studies
from Fortuna Advisors have shown that buybacks
are more effective when taking a price-average
approach in calculations.47
E n g a g i n g w i t h co rp o r a t e s
Investors can encourage the use and disclosure of
Of note, in looking at the go/no go decisions for long-term corporate roadmaps. By holding companies
buybacks, companies are right to be aware of accountable for clearer explanations and disclosures
maintaining healthy liquidity and leverage ratios on why companies engaged in buybacks and how
by not overdistributing capital. such actions align with the long-term vision of the
company, informed long-term investors serve as
E xe cu t i ve co m p e n s a t i o n
helpful moderators of corporate buyback behavior.
To avoid executive compensation gaming, boards
can evaluate the potential side effects of buybacks Vo t i n g
and implications for incentive compensation. Plans Based on all available information from the
themselves could be restructured to minimize company, investors and shareholders can evaluate
the potential effects of buybacks, stripping out or whether buybacks are the most efficient use of
minimizing links to EPS and considering the costs capital in the long run. Regardless of jurisdiction,
of any associated share repurchase to offset dilution. investors can have a strong say in the company ’s
direction through their votes. For countries where
I nve s t o r r e l a t i o n s co m m u n i c a t i o n
shareholders approve buybacks, investors can use
The investor-corporate dialogue on capital
their votes directly to support or oppose a buyback
distribution decisions is critical. Companies that
program. For countries where the board approves
engage effectively use a roadmap with a long-term
buybacks, shareholders can still use their votes to
plan. Within it, executives and board members
influence other issues related to buybacks, such as
clearly articulate the company’s long-term vision,
executive compensation structure and metrics
and how each aspect of capital allocation, including
(say on pay), or in their re-election of directors.
buybacks, supports that vision. In doing so,
• P
ricing restrictions: limiting the purchase price
India has taken steps to achieve this level to be no higher than the most recent price
playing field. In 2014, the Indian government (company is not allowed to buy on an uptick)
levied a dividends tax on corporates,
• V
olume restrictions: limiting repurchases to
prompting a surge in buybacks in the
a certain percentage of average daily volume
coming years. This disparity was rectified in
2019, when the government equalized the • S
eparate announcements and disclosures:
tax treatments of dividends and buybacks requiring daily or monthly disclosures of share
on corporates. Buyback levels subsequently repurchase activity
returned to pre-2014 levels.51
Conclusion
In addition to leveling the tax playing field, Buybacks are a popular tool and in many cases are
policymakers and regulators also could consider both misused and misunderstood. They can be an
how best to reconcile offering tax advantages with effective way to return capital to shareholders, but
existing anti-buyback rhetoric from lawmakers. It have several potential pitfalls.
is ironic that in jurisdictions like the US, buybacks
Companies, investors, and policymakers could
enjoy favorable tax treatment while also being a
each take steps to understand how buybacks affect
behavior that authorities disparage.
them and the overall financial ecosystem in order
E xe cu t i ve t r a d i n g to mitigate the downsides of buybacks. Ultimately,
While jurisdictions like Hong Kong prohibit employee buybacks are a useful capital allocation tool that
trading in specific circumstances, there are no can be wielded thoughtfully and, in rare, specific
mandated blackout dates in the US.52 To curb insider circumstances, in support of long-term value.
trading, regulators and policymakers could mandate
FCLTGlobal’s work benefited from the insights and advice of a global working
group of senior asset owners and asset management staff drawn from
FCLTGlobal’s Members and other industry experts. We are grateful for insight
from all our project collaborators:
ALLEN HE DA N I E L J O S E P H S
FCLTGlobal, Author EY
T I M A LC O R N DAV I D K I N G
Baillie Gifford Fidelity Investments
MARK BLAIR T I M KO L L E R
Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan McKinsey & Company
N I C O L E B OYS O N F LO R E N C E L E E
Northeastern University Hong Kong Monetary Authority
D’Amore-McKim School of Business
ALAN MAK
DAV I D B R O W N Hong Kong Monetary Authority
EY
E O I N M U R R AY
AMELIA CHEN Federated Hermes
Williams College
B R U C E S H AW
LARS DIJKSTRA The Denny Center at Georgetown Law
Kempen Capital Management
T I M OT H Y YO U M A N S
M I L E N A G L AU B E R ZO N EOS at Federated Hermes
PSP Investments
J E A N - LU C G R AV E L
Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
Investor Relations • U
se a roadmap to lay out a long-term plan for the company. Clearly communicate
Communication long-term vision and how each aspect of capital allocation, including buybacks,
fits in54
• O
ffer clearer explanations of buyback intentions (e.g., in categories such as
neutralizing executive stock options, return strategies, and regular returns of
cash to shareholders)
Investors Engaging • E
ncourage use and disclosure of a long-term roadmap. Hold companies
with Corporates accountable for clear explanations and disclosures on what buybacks were used
for and how they support the long-term strategy of the company
Voting • B
ased on available information, evaluate whether buybacks are the most
efficient use of capital
– F
or countries where shareholders approve of buybacks, use their vote
directly to support or oppose buybacks
– F
or countries where the board approves of buybacks, use their vote to
influence other related issues, like the structure and metrics used for
compensation and re-election of directors
Executive Trading • M
andate blackout windows on internal stock trading around buyback
announcements and execution
• Designate legal trading windows for corporate employees
Improvements • R
equire more prompt disclosure of buybacks, including the number of shares
to Disclosure repurchased and volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Certain markets
already require daily or weekly disclosures
• R
ecommend stricter policies around volume, price, and timing restrictions for
buybacks (e.g., no buybacks within 15 days of earnings announcements)56
1 FCLTGlobal analysis of MSCI ACWI data. 15 Smit, L.A. “Share repurchases in South Korea:
Stock price performance around buyback
2 “Rule 10B-18.” Securities and Exchange announcements.” Utrecht University. 2017.
Commission. 2003.
16 Shoven, John B. “The Tax Consequences of
3 See, e.g., GameStop (NYSE: GME) and DaVita Share Repurchases and Other Non-Dividend
(NYSE:DVA). Cash Payments to Equity Owners.” NBER. 1987.
4 Figure adapted from Manconi, Albert, Peyer, Urs, 17 Edmans, Alex. “The Case for Stock Buybacks.”
and Theo Vermaelen. “Buybacks Around the Harvard Business Review. 2017.
World.” ECGI. 2014.
18 Edmans, Alex. “Blockholder trading, market
5 FCLTGlobal analysis of MSCI ACWI data. efficiency, and managerial myopia.” The Journal
6 FCLTGlobal analysis of MSCI ACWI data. of Finance 64, no. 6 (2009): 2481-2513.
7 FCLTGlobal analysis of MSCI ACWI data. 19 Almeida, Heitor, Vyacheslav Fos, and
Mathias Kronlund. “The real effects of share
8 FCLTGlobal analysis of MSCI ACWI data. repurchases.” Journal of Financial Economics
“All other” includes R&D, M&A, intangibles, 119, no. 1 (2016): 168-185.
retirement of debt, interest and taxes.
20 Babcock, Ariel Fromer, and Sarah Keohane
9 Edmans, Alex. “The Case for Stock Buybacks.” Williamson. “Moving Beyond Quarterly
Harvard Business Review. 2017. Guidance: A Relic of the Past.” FCLTGlobal. 2017.
10 Vermaelen, Theo. “Common stock repurchases 21 It is also worth noting that CEOs may take other
and market signaling: An empirical study.” actions like cutting R&D spending to hit bonus
Journal of financial economics 9, no. 2 (1981): targets. See, e.g., Bennett, Benjamin et. al.
139-183. “Compensation goals and firm performance.”
Journal of Financial Economics 124, no. 2 (2017):
11 Manconi, Alberto, Peyer, Urs and Theo
307-330.
Vermaelen. “Are Buybacks Good for Long-Term
Shareholder Value? Evidence from Buybacks 22 Roe, John, and Kosmas Papadoupoulos.
around the World.” Journal of Finance and “2019 U.S. Executive Compensation Trends.”
Quantitative Analysis 54, no. 5 (2019):1899-1935, ISS Analytics. 2019.
2019.
23 Lamont, Duncan. “Six reasons you should care
12 Damodaran, Aswath. “Top of Mind: Buyback about share buybacks.” Schroders. 2018.
Realities.” Goldman Sachs Global Macro
Research, Issue 77. 2019. 24 Ekekoye, Obi, Koller, Tim, and Ankit Mittal.
“How share repurchases boost earnings without
13 Ryder, Brett. “Six muddles about share improving returns.” McKinsey & Company. 2016.
buybacks.” The Economist. 2018.
25 Turco, Enrico Maria. “Are stock buybacks
14 Davis, Stephen. “Top of Mind: Buyback crowding out real investment? Empirical
Realities.” Goldman Sachs Global Macro evidence from U.S. firms.” 2018.
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