‘02/02/2021 Disaggregating lethal armed violence - Reinventing PeaceReinventing Peace
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Disaggregating lethal armed violence
by ROBERT MUGCAH on MARCH 26, 2012
advocacy Africa
African Union
Armed violence ean exhibit multiple forms. Whether in the context of conflicts or insurgencies, or of gang violence and arms trade
killings associated with drug trafficking, hundreds of thousands of people suffer injuries or lose their lives each year. atrocities av
Countless others ere forced to flee from their homes and communities. Still more must enéue various forms of violence book review Bosnia
Inside the home, Many trageies—from epidemics to natural disasters—ill people. But violence is distnet in that it entails confet data Corrupt
the deliberate harming of fellow human beings. Tis concept note considers a numberof recurring characteristic of Covid-19 nasser sant
contemporary armed violence. Tt focuses on the multiple, simultaneous, and shifting motivations of perpetrators, and the ‘owions Employee ¢
Tinks between diferent forms of violence It ealls for an analytical approach that moves beyond simplistic labels and policy the month triven
responses. Such an approach would need to develop new ways of understanding the relationships berwoon what were Ethiopia famin
previously held tobe dstnet forms of armed violence ‘orsign ply gender
Deconstructing armed violence enocide Gil Ams
Boson uman rights
Conventional analyses often compartmentalize armed violence nto distinc eategories according to a particular context oF ‘memorial intervention
underlying intentions ofthe perpetrator. The two most common distinctions are drawn between organized ulective) and Iraq justice Libya
interpersonal individual violence, and between confi (politely motivated) and criminal (economically motivated) mediation
violence. These ditinetons ae intended to capture the level of organization and the motivations shaping violent cs ‘memorialization
Governments, muilateral agencies, non-governmental organizations, and research institutes around the word se these raion NEW Wars,
categoria oases verl level of rime and violence oro plan volenefntervenion programmes and plies Yetthexe peace politica
Aisnetions gv the iteadig impression tht diferent forms nd indent of violence Minto neat and weparate categorie. Marketplace
‘Saudi Arabia Somali
avin South
Sudan Sudan
Syria UK uw US
High levels of gang violence in Guatemala or Honduras, vigilant justice in postwar and fragile states such as iberia or
‘Timor-Leste, post~ection violence in Cte dToire or Kenya, and high Ievels of urban crime in etes such as Kingston or Rio
de Janeiro underline how the ines between armed conflict and criminal violence are increesngly blurred, In Iraq since 2003,
for example the targeting of non-combatants by insurgent, militias, and sectarian groups may seem chaotic or random, yet a
loser inspection of underlying patterns of wolence suggests that seemingly arbitrary or eriminal violence may also serve
politcal purposes in line with the goals of armed groups.
{In many places, non-conflict violence i linked to highly organized criminal activity, orto different forms of ‘political violence’,
cither targeting politica opponents or government officials (auch as mayors, teachers, police officers, or journalists), oF
secking to influence and modify government policies through corruption and use of force. Ia these contexts, the label
‘nomicide'—which implies ostensibly apolitical interpersonal and criminal violence —is potentially misleading, As the figure
below reveals itis possible to decompose broad eategores of collective and interpersonal ~as well as cotiet and non:
confit violence ~ into a host of overlapping categories
Figure 1. Decomposing armed violence
hitpsstes ft edureinventingpeacel2012103/26icisaggregating ethal-armed-vilence! “4‘02/02/2021 Disaggregating lethal armed violence - Reinventing PeaceReinventing Peace
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“The violent activities of organized criminal groupe frequently have broader political consequences, even if their main
motivation remains rent-seeking. Criminal activities such as trafficking in drugs or othe leg] goods have also been used to
Finance war efforts in plaes such as Aghanistan, Bosnia an Herzegovina, Colombia, and Liberia, The operations of
organized crime groupe, and especially the trafficking flict narcotics are frequently accompanied by high levels of
viotene.
Such groups have shown an extraordinary capacity fr blurring the boundaries between criminal and political types of
Violence, as evidenced by the drug wars in Mexico and the rest of Central America, the Caribbean, and eertain Andean
countries, Drug cartels are locked in battle for control over te flow of nareoties while governments in countries across these
regions have mobilized their armies to boos altering war on drugs ici taficking of drugs is increasingly recognized asa
‘heat to international, regional, and national security, as wells public safety.
Assessing the global burden
‘The intensity and organization of violent killings provides a eriical indicator ofa state's—and its population’s—relative
‘insecurity. From a satstial perspective violent deaths tend to be more systematically recorded than other crimes and
‘human rights violations, Baed on data on lethal violence from established administrative sources in the eiminal justice,
health, and confit studies sectors. The 2011 Global Burden of Armed Violence report detests that $26,000 people died
violently per year between 2004 and 2009, The estimate includes civilian conilet deaths, batle deaths, and vilims of
‘terrorism (combined as direct confit deaths), intentional and unintentional homicide, and legal interventions in non-conflict
settings
Figure
DIRECT CONFLICT DEATHS
pore
rs $= = eis
peer eons)
While war easuatis are frequent featured in media headlines, their actual number is far lower than that of victims ile in
‘many ostensibly nnconiiet countries. Roughly three-quarters of ll violent deaths are the result of intentions! homicide,
while approximately 0 percent are direct contlet deaths. This translates nto 396,000 intentional homicide vetims and
55,000 direct conflict deaths per your. An estimated 54,000 additional people (more than 10 percent of all violet deaths) die
Violently asa result of unintentional homicide. The remaining category—Xilings during legal interventions account for at
least 23,000 victims a year, or 4 per ent ofall violent deaths, Most of the datas derived from incident reporting systems and
surveillance databases, which typically yield conservative estimates since they often undercount the numberof victims in any
ven situation, The reasons for this are obvious: any data harvesting system depends on quality reporting snd institutional
capacity to monitor incidents
hitpsstes suf edureinventingpeace/2012103/26icisaggregating etal-armed-vilence!‘02/02/2021 Disaggregating lethal armed violence - Reinventing PeaceReinventing Peace
Assessing regional trends
‘The 201 Global Burden of Armed Violence zooms in on the 38 states that are experiencing violent death rates (direct conflict
{deaths and intentional homicides combined) of more than 1 per 100,000. I finds that one-quarter ofthe worlds countres—
comprising some 1.2 billion people or roughly 18 percent of the global population exhibit high and very high rates of armed
violence and secount for almost two-thirds (63 percent) of ll violent death. An estimated 285,000 people are violently
killed each yearin these countries. Among them, 14 countries are experiencing extremely high violent death rates—more than
30 violent deaths per 100,000 people; these comprise 4.6 per cent ofthe global population and account for an estimated
124,000 violent deaths
nother words, 25 per cent of vilont deaths occur in just 14 countries, which are home to les than sper cent of the world’s
population. Of these 14 countries, seven arein the Americas, As these findings reveal, armed violence i highly concentrated
{in specific regions and in a comparatively small umber ofeountees The regions mos affected by lethal violence include
[tin Ameries and the Caribbean, and Central and Southern Afia. tthe county level, El Salvador experienced the highest
‘overall annual average violent death rate between 2004 and 2009, followed by Iraq and Jamaica
‘Lethal violence isnot only distributed unevenly across states or regions, but also within states, While specific municipalities,
cites, or neighbourhoods may be highly affected by criminal violence and armed cont, other areas may be comparatively
peaceful Whereas Mexico's violet death rate in 2009 stood at 18.4 per 100,000 population, for example, the slate of
CChinuahua experienced arate of 108 per 100,000 inthe same year. Understanding what is behind such extreme sub-national
‘rations in the incidence of armed violence isa prerequisite for designing and administering effective violence prevention
sand reduction programmes.
Itisalso possible to beter understand the diverse contexts and settings in which intentional homicides occur. I examines
how intentional homicide may aris in the context of violent operations by gangs or organized eximinal groups, premeditated
‘orunplanned crimes of passion coramitted against intimate partners or family members, or other crimes, such as robbery ot
theft. Such disaggregration of data is important for policy and programmatic reasons. For example, while countries in Asia
and Europe show a comparatively high proportion of intimate or family~related homicides (around go per ent of total 7
homicides), their overall homicide rates are significantly lower than those of other regions, suchas the Amerias,
Nonetheless, the high proportion of intimate or family-elaed homicides in many eountties in Asia and Europe underlines
‘the importance of aiming research and local violence reduction and prevention initiatives at these forms of lethal violence.
‘The proportion of intentional homicides associated with gangs oF organized erime is sgniicantly higher in countries in Latin
America, At the same time, homicide rates related to robbery or theft tend tobe higher in countries with greater income
Inequality.
Moving forward
Containing and reducing the incidence of armed violence requires a proper diagnosis ofits causes and consequences, Many
governments affected by high level of armed violenee—as wel as many others that are aot afectod—have initiated
‘omprehensive armed violence monitoring systems. Such ‘observatories’ specially when administered in partnership with
civ society and reliable research institutions, ean provide crucial information on the scale and distribution of lethal violence.
"This datais indispensable in unpacking the complex relationships between armed violence and factors such as
unemployment, inequality, the presence of lit markets, corruption, weak rule of lee, and impunity. The ability ofthe
Jnternational community and national as well s local goveramentsto design appropriate policies and programmes for armed
violence prevention and reduction depends critically on an integrated and comprehensive understanding ofthe distribution
sand dynamics of lethal (and non-lethal) valence worldwide.
Dr. Robert Muggah is based at the International Relations Institute (IRI-PUC) in Rio de Janeiro, He is also a Prineipal of
the SeeDev Group in Ottawa and a fellow atthe Center for Conflict, Peacebuilding and Development (CCDP) in Geneva. Dr
_Muggah isthe coordinator ofthe Humanitarian Aeton in Situations Other than War (HASOW) projet.
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