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UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE PERNAMBUCO

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CENTRO DE CIÊNCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS CONTÁBEIS E ATUARIAIS
PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM CIÊNCIAS CONTÁBEIS - PPGCC

Plano de Aula
PDC903 - Métodos Quantitativos Aplicados à Pesquisa
(Applied Econometrics)

Professor:
Horário:
Carga Horária:
E-mail:
Página pessoal:
Avaliação:
Giuseppe Trevisan
Sextas, 14h - 18h
60 horas
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giuseppe.trevisan@ufpe.br
https://sites.google.com/view/giuseppetrevisan
60% projeto da disciplina
30% apresentação de papers
10% referee report de um projeto

Objetivos
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O curso tem como objetivo fornecer ferramental econométrico com foco na avaliação quantitativa de
impacto de intervenções de qualquer natureza, enfatizando os principais métodos estatísticos utilizados
para inferir causalidade. O curso irá focar em artigos publicados nas principais revistas internacionais
de interesse do profissional de ciências sociais aplicadas – tanto top journals de Contabilidade quanto de
Economia e Administração –, dos mais variados temas. Após este curso, o aluno será capaz de estruturar
trabalhos empíricos que visam identificar relações de causa e efeito entre variáveis, utilizando os métodos
abordados.
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Referências Básicas

Angrist, J. D., Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton
university press.

Angrist, J. D., Pischke, J. S. (2015). Mastering’Metrics: The path from cause to effect. Princeton
University Press.

Cunningham, S. (2021). Causal inference: The mixtape. Yale university press.

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Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric Analysis. New York: Pearson.

Morgan, S. L., Winship, C. (2015). Counterfactuals and causal inference. Cambridge University Press.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: The MIT
Press, second edition.

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Referências Complementares

Andreβ, H. J., Golsch, K., Schmidt, A. W. (2013). Applied panel data analysis for economic and social
surveys. Springer Science & Business Media.

Banerjee, A., Duflo, E. (2016). Handbook of Field Experiments. https://www.povertyactionlab.org/

handbook-field-experiments

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Gerber, A., Green, D. (2010). Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. W. W. Norton
Company

Peixoto, B., Pinto, C. C. D. X., Lima, L., Foguel, M. N., Barros, R. D. (2012). Avaliação econômica de
projetos sociais. São Paulo: Dinâmica Gráfica e Editora.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2015). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Nelson Education.

Avaliação

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(60%) Ao final do curso, o aluno desenvolverá um projeto de artigo (individualmente) com uma das
metodologias abordadas. O projeto deve conter: a) introdução, com contextualização na literatura e
motivação, bem como a contribuição que pretende dar com o trabalho; b) background institucional; c)
descrição da base de dados que será utilizada; d) estratégia de identificação bem fundamentada.

(30%) Apresentação de artigos previamente distribuídos, em formato de seminário. O foco da avaliação

será no entendimento/explicação da estratégia empírica e dos resultados.

(10%) Elaboração de um referee report sobre o projeto de artigo de um par, que será selecionado mediante
sorteio. Para escrever um bom referee report, consulte https://are.berkeley.edu/courses/ARE251/
2004/assignments/RRGuidelines.pdf e https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=222.

OBS: o projeto da disciplina e as apresentações deverão ser elaborados em LATEX.

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Conteúdo Programático

- Apresentação da disciplina, regras de conduta, revisão de conceitos básicos em Regressão

Linear.

• Wooldridge, J. M. (2015). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Nelson Education.

- Causality and Randomization. ATE, ATT, ATU, ITT, and LATE.

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• Mostly harmless econometrics, chap. 1 and 2.

• Mastering’Metrics, chap. 1.
• Angrist, J. D., Krueger, A. B. (1999). Empirical strategies in labor economics. In Handbook of labor
economics (Vol. 3, pp. 1277-1366). Elsevier.
• Athey, S., & Imbens, G. W. (2017). The state of applied econometrics: Causality and policy evalua-
tion. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(2), 3-32.
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• Atkin, D., Khandelwal, A. K., & Osman, A. (2017). Exporting and firm performance: Evidence from
a randomized experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(2), 551-615.
• Avis, E., Ferraz, C., & Finan, F. (2018). Do government audits reduce corruption? Estimating the
impacts of exposing corrupt politicians. Journal of Political Economy, 126(5), 1912-1964.
• Bandiera, O., Buehren, N., Burgess, R., Goldstein, M., Gulesci, S., Rasul, I., & Sulaiman, M. (2020).
Women’s empowerment in action: evidence from a randomized control trial in Africa. American
Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 12(1), 210-59.

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• Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., Goldberg, N., Karlan, D., Osei, R., Parienté, W., ... & Udry, C. (2015). A
multifaceted program causes lasting progress for the very poor: Evidence from six countries. Science,
348(6236), 1260799.
• Bertrand, M., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). Are Emily and Greg more employable than Lakisha and
Jamal? A field experiment on labor market discrimination. American economic review, 94(4), 991-
1013.

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• Blimpo, M. P. (2014). Team incentives for education in developing countries: A randomized field
experiment in Benin. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 6(4), 90-109.
• Bruhn, M., & McKenzie, D. (2009). In pursuit of balance: Randomization in practice in development
field experiments. American economic journal: applied economics, 1(4), 200-232.
• Corgnet, B., Desantis, M., & Porter, D. (2018). What makes a good trader? On the role of intuition
and reflection on trader performance. The Journal of Finance, 73(3), 1113-1137.
• Duflo, E., Glennerster, R., & Kremer, M. (2007). Using randomization in development economics
research: A toolkit. Handbook of development economics, 4, 3895-3962.

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• Ferraz, C., Finan, F., & Moreira, D. B. (2012). Corrupting learning: Evidence from missing federal
education funds in Brazil. Journal of Public Economics, 96(9-10), 712-726.
• Finkelstein, A., Taubman, S., Wright, B., Bernstein, M., Gruber, J., Newhouse, J. P., ... & Oregon
Health Study Group. (2012). The Oregon health insurance experiment: evidence from the first year.
The Quarterly journal of economics, 127(3), 1057-1106.
• Giné, X., & Mansuri, G. (2021). Money or management? A field experiment on constraints to
entrepreneurship in rural Pakistan. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 70(1), 41-86.
• Haesebrouck, K., Cools, M., & Van den Abbeele, A. (2017). Status differences and knowledge
transfer: The effect of incentives. The Accounting Review, 93(1), 213-234.
• Krueger, A. B. (1999). Experimental estimates of education production functions. The quarterly
journal of economics, 114(2), 497-532.
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- Selection on Observables: Matching Estimators.

• Mostly harmless econometrics, chap. 3.

• Almond, D., Chay, K. Y., & Lee, D. S. (2005). The costs of low birth weight. The Quarterly Journal
of Economics, 120(3), 1031-1083.
• Amore, M. D., Garofalo, O., & Minichilli, A. (2014). Gender interactions within the family firm.
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Management Science, 60(5), 1083-1097.

• Dehejia, R. H., & Wahba, S. (1999). Causal effects in nonexperimental studies: Reevaluating the
evaluation of training programs. Journal of the American statistical Association, 94(448), 1053-1062.
• Dehejia, R. H., & Wahba, S. (2002). Propensity score-matching methods for nonexperimental causal
studies. Review of Economics and statistics, 84(1), 151-161.
• Goller, D., Lechner, M., Moczall, A., & Wolff, J. (2020). Does the estimation of the propensity score
by machine learning improve matching estimation? The case of Germany’s programmes for long
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term unemployed. Labour economics, 65, 101855.

• Harp, N. L., & Barnes, B. G. (2017). Internal control weaknesses and acquisition performance. The
Accounting Review, 93(1), 235-258.
• Ichino, A., Mealli, F., & Nannicini, T. (2008). From temporary help jobs to permanent employment:
what can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity? Journal of applied econometrics,
23(3), 305-327.
• Imbens, G. W. (2004). Nonparametric estimation of average treatment effects under exogeneity: A
review. Review of Economics and statistics, 86(1), 4-29.

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• McKenzie, D., Stillman, S., & Gibson, J. (2010). How important is selection? Experimental vs.
non-experimental measures of the income gains from migration. Journal of the European Economic
Association, 8(4), 913-945.
• Pei, Z., Pischke, J. S., & Schwandt, H. (2019). Poorly measured confounders are more useful on the
left than on the right. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 37(2), 205-216.
• Rishika, R., & Ramaprasad, J. (2019). The effects of asymmetric social ties, structural embeddedness,

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and tie strength on online content contribution behavior. Management Science, 65(7), 3398-3422.
• Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1984). Reducing bias in observational studies using subclassifi-
cation on the propensity score. Journal of the American statistical Association, 79(387), 516-524.
• Smith, J. A., & Todd, P. E. (2005). Does matching overcome LaLonde’s critique of nonexperimental
estimators? Journal of econometrics, 125(1-2), 305-353.

- Topics on Panel Data and Selection on Unobservables: Differences-in-Differences (DD).

• Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data, chap. 10 and 17.7

• Mostly harmless econometrics, chap. 5.
• Mastering’Metrics, chap. 5.

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• Atalay, K., & Barrett, G. F. (2015). The impact of age pension eligibility age on retirement and
program dependence: evidence from an Australian experiment. Review of Economics and Statistics,
97(1), 71-87.
• Barbosa, A., Casagrande, D., Maier, P., & Trevisan, G. (2021). Changing the Pyramids: The Impact
of Broadband Internet on Firm Employment Structures. SSRN Working Paper.
• Barrot, J. N., & Nanda, R. (2016). The employment effects of faster payment: evidence from the
federal quickpay reform. The Journal of Finance.
• Benzarti, Y., & Carloni, D. (2019). Who really benefits from consumption tax cuts? Evidence from
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a large VAT reform in France. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(1), 38-63.
• Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust differences-in-
differences estimates? The Quarterly journal of economics, 119(1), 249-275.
• Cheng, C., & Hoekstra, M. (2013). Does strengthening self-defense law deter crime or escalate
violence? Evidence from expansions to castle doctrine. Journal of Human Resources, 48(3), 821-854.
• Chen, Y. C., Hung, M., & Wang, Y. (2018). The effect of mandatory CSR disclosure on firm
profitability and social externalities: Evidence from China. Journal of Accounting and Economics,
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65(1), 169-190.
• Dambra, M., Field, L. C., Gustafson, M. T., & Pisciotta, K. (2018). The consequences to analyst
involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act. Journal of Accounting and
Economics, 65(2-3), 302-330.
• Derrien, F., & Kecskés, A. (2013). The real effects of financial shocks: Evidence from exogenous
changes in analyst coverage. The Journal of Finance, 68(4), 1407-1440.
• Doidge, C., & Dyck, A. (2015). Taxes and corporate policies: Evidence from a quasi natural experi-
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ment. The Journal of Finance, 70(1), 45-89.

• Donald, S. G., & Lang, K. (2007). Inference with difference-in-differences and other panel data. The
review of Economics and Statistics, 89(2), 221-233.
• Fauver, L., Hung, M., Li, X., & Taboada, A. G. (2017). Board reforms and firm value: Worldwide
evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 125(1), 120-142.
• Fuest, C., Peichl, A., & Siegloch, S. (2018). Do higher corporate taxes reduce wages? Micro evidence
from Germany. American Economic Review, 108(2), 393-418.

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• Giroud, X., & Mueller, H. M. (2015). Capital and labor reallocation within firms. The Journal of
Finance, 70(4), 1767-1804.
• Guimarães, R & Trevisan, G. (2022). Mandatory CEO Non-Duality, Managerial Agency, and Sha-
reholder Value. SSRN Working Paper.
• Huang, Y., Li, N., Yu, Y., & Zhou, X. (2020). The effect of managerial litigation risk on earnings
warnings: Evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Accounting Research, 58(5), 1161-1202.

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• Kline, P. (2011). The impact of juvenile curfew laws on arrests of youth and adults. American Law
and Economics Review, 14(1), 44-67.
• Kellogg, R., & Wolff, H. (2008). Daylight time and energy: Evidence from an Australian experiment.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 56(3), 207-220.
• Naritomi, J. (2019). Consumers as tax auditors. American Economic Review, 109(9), 3031-72.
• Mulalic, I., Van Ommeren, J. N., & Pilegaard, N. (2013). Wages and commuting: Quasi-natural
experiments’ evidence from firms that relocate. The Economic Journal, 124(579), 1086-1105.

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- Selection on Unobservables: Instrumental Variables (IV).

• Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panel Data, chap. 5

• Mostly harmless econometrics, chap. 4.
• Mastering’Metrics, chap. 3.
• Angrist, J. D., Imbens, G. W., & Rubin, D. B. (1996). Identification of causal effects using instru-
mental variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91(434), 444-455.
• Angrist, J. D., & Evans, W. N. (1996). Children and their parents’ labor supply: Evidence from
exogenous variation in family size (No. w5778). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Angrist, J. D. (2004). Treatment effect heterogeneity in theory and practice. The economic journal,
114(494), C52-C83.
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• Ahern, K. R., & Dittmar, A. K. (2012). The changing of the boards: The impact on firm valuation
of mandated female board representation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(1), 137-197.
• Bennedsen, M., Nielsen, K. M., Pérez-González, F., & Wolfenzon, D. (2007). Inside the family firm:
The role of families in succession decisions and performance. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
122(2), 647-691.
• Brückner, M., Chong, A., & Gradstein, M. (2012). Estimating the permanent income elasticity of
government expenditures: Evidence on Wagner’s law based on oil price shocks. Journal of Public
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Economics, 96(11-12), 1025-1035.

• Coe, N. B., von Gaudecker, H. M., Lindeboom, M., & Maurer, J. (2012). The effect of retirement
on cognitive functioning. Health economics, 21(8), 913-927.
• Cole, S., Sampson, T., & Zia, B. (2011). Prices or knowledge? What drives demand for financial
services in emerging markets? The journal of finance, 66(6), 1933-1967.
• Depalo, D. (2018). Identification issues in the public/private wage gap, with an application to Italy.
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33(3), 435-456.
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• Dettling, L. J. (2017). Broadband in the labor market: the impact of residential high-speed internet
on married women’s labor force participation. ILR Review, 70(2), 451-482.
• Falck, O., Gold, R., & Heblich, S. (2014). E-lections: Voting Behavior and the Internet. American
Economic Review, 104(7), 2238-65.
• Ferraz and Monteiro (2014). Learning to Punish: Resource Windfalls and Political Accountability in
Brazil. May 2014, Working paper
• Campello, M., Lin, C., Ma, Y., & Zou, H. (2011). The real and financial implications of corporate
hedging. The journal of finance, 66(5), 1615-1647.

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• Dinkelman, T. (2011). The effects of rural electrification on employment: New evidence from South
Africa. American Economic Review, 101(7), 3078-3108.
• Heckman, J. J., Urzua, S., & Vytlacil, E. (2006). Understanding instrumental variables in models
with essential heterogeneity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(3), 389-432.
• Imbens, G. W. (2010). Better LATE than nothing: Some comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman
and Urzua (2009). Journal of Economic literature, 48(2), 399-423.

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• Larcker, D. F., & Rusticus, T. O. (2010). On the use of instrumental variables in accounting research.
Journal of accounting and economics, 49(3), 186-205.
• Oreopoulos, P. (2006). Estimating average and local average treatment effects of education when
compulsory schooling laws really matter. American Economic Review, 96(1), 152-175.
• Staiger, D. O., & Stock, J. H. (1994). Instrumental variables regression with weak instruments.

- Selection on Unobservables: Sharp and Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD).

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• Mostly harmless econometrics, chap. 6.
• Mastering’Metrics, chap. 4.
• Akhtari, M., Moreira, D., & Trucco, L. (2017, January). Political turnover, bureaucratic turnover,
and the quality of public services. In Proceedings. Annual Conference on Taxation and Minutes of
the Annual Meeting of the National Tax Association (Vol. 110, pp. 1-84). National Tax Association.
• Cattaneo, M. D., Titiunik, R., Vazquez-Bare, G., & Keele, L. (2016). Interpreting regression discon-
tinuity designs with multiple cutoffs. The Journal of Politics, 78(4), 1229-1248.
• Chen, S., Huang, Y., Li, N., & Shevlin, T. (2018). How does quasi-indexer ownership affect corporate
tax planning? Journal of Accounting and Economics.
• Cook, T. D. (2008). “Waiting for life to arrive”: a history of the regression-discontinuity design in
psychology, statistics and economics. Journal of Econometrics, 142(2), 636-654.
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• DiNardo, J., & Lee, D. S. (2004). Economic impacts of new unionization on private sector employers:
1984–2001. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(4), 1383-1441.
• Duryea, S., Ribas, R. P., Sampaio, B., Sampaio, G. R., & Trevisan, G. (2023). Who benefits from
tuition-free, top-quality universities? Evidence from Brazil. Economics of Education Review, 95,
102423.
• Ferraz, C., & Finan, F. (2011). Electoral accountability and corruption: Evidence from the audits of
local governments. American Economic Review, 101(4), 1274-1311.
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• Flammer, C. (2015). Does corporate social responsibility lead to superior financial performance? A
regression discontinuity approach. Management Science, 61(11), 2549-2568.
• Flammer, C., & Bansal, P. (2017). Does a long-term orientation create value? Evidence from a
regression discontinuity. Strategic Management Journal, 38(9), 1827-1847.
• Franco, C., Sampaio, B., Sampaio, G. R., & Vaz, P. (2017). Tax Compliance Costs and Employment
in SMEs: Evidence from a Size-dependent Policy in Brazil. LACEA LAMES. Working paper
• Gelman, A., & Imbens, G. (2019). Why high-order polynomials should not be used in regression
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discontinuity designs. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 37(3), 447-456.

• Hoekstra, M. (2009). The effect of attending the flagship state university on earnings: A discontinuity-
based approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(4), 717-724.
• Gerard, F., Rokkanen, M., & Rothe, C. (2016). Identification and inference in regression disconti-
nuity designs with a manipulated running variable.
• Imbens, G. W., & Lemieux, T. (2008). Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice. Journal
of econometrics, 142(2), 615-635.

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• Ribas, R. P., Sampaio, B., & Trevisan, G. (2020). Short-and long-term effects of class assignment:
Evidence from a flagship university in Brazil. Labour Economics, 64, 101835.
• Ribas, R. P., Sampaio, B., & Trevisan, G. (2023). Can Perceived Disadvantages in College Prevent
Students from Attaining Managerial Roles? SSRN Working Paper.

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- Miscellaneous: Advanced Topics in RDD. Synthetic Control. I don’t have a clean identi-
fication strategy... what can I do?

• Almunia, M., & Lopez-Rodriguez, D. (2018). Under the radar: The effects of monitoring firms on
tax compliance. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(1), 1-38.
• Altonji, J. G., Elder, T. E., & Taber, C. R. (2005). Selection on observed and unobserved variables:

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Assessing the effectiveness of Catholic schools. Journal of political economy, 113(1), 151-184.
• Altonji, J. G., Conley, T., Elder, T. E., & Taber, C. R. (2010). Methods for using selection on
observed variables to address selection on unobserved variables.
• Avis, E., Ferraz, C., Finan, F., & Varjão, C. (2017). Money and politics: The effects of campaign
spending limits on political competition and incumbency advantage (No. w23508). National Bureau
of Economic Research.
• Cellini, S. R., Ferreira, F., & Rothstein, J. (2010). The value of school facility investments: Evidence
from a dynamic regression discontinuity design. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1), 215-

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261.
• Card, D., D. Lee, Z. Pei, and A Weber, “Inference of Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression
Kink Design,” Econometrica 83 (2015)
• Choudhury, S. (2019). WTO membership and corruption. European Journal of Political Economy.
• Cuñat, V., Gine, M., & Guadalupe, M. (2012). The vote is cast: The effect of corporate governance
on shareholder value. The journal of finance, 67(5), 1943-1977.
• Gundersen, C., Kreider, B., & Pepper, J. (2012). The impact of the National School Lunch Program
on child health: A nonparametric bounds analysis. Journal of Econometrics, 166(1), 79-91.
• Lalive, R., Schlosser, A., Steinhauer, A., & Zweimüller, J. (2013). Parental leave and mothers’
careers: The relative importance of job protection and cash benefits. Review of Economic Studies,
81(1), 219-265.
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• Lee, D. S. (2009). Training, wages, and sample selection: Estimating sharp bounds on treatment
effects. The Review of Economic Studies, 76(3), 1071-1102.
• Oster, E. (2019). Unobservable selection and coefficient stability: Theory and evidence. Journal of
Business & Economic Statistics, 37(2), 187-204.
• Rokkanen, M. A. (2015). Exam schools, ability, and the effects of affirmative action: Latent factor
extrapolation in the regression discontinuity design.
• Stancanelli, E. (2012). Spouses’ retirement and hours outcomes: Evidence from twofold regression
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discontinuity with differences-in-differences.

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