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  • Paparan Fenomena Angsa Hitam

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    Reny Rachma Wijaya
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    The document discusses the concept of "black swan events" and the dangers of suppressing volatility. It argues that artificially constraining systems to promote short-term stability can make them vulnerable to large, unpredictable events. When such events inevitably occur, the harm is worsened due to the increased fragility of the system. Complex human systems are extremely difficult to predict and are characterized by high interdependence, so the rise of complexity also increases unpredictability and the risk of black swan events.

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    The document discusses the concept of "black swan events" and the dangers of suppressing volatility. It argues that artificially constraining systems to promote short-term stability can make them vulnerable to large, unpredictable events. When such events inevitably occur, the harm is worsened due to the increased fragility of the system. Complex human systems are extremely difficult to predict and are characterized by high interdependence, so the rise of complexity also increases unpredictability and the risk of black swan events.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    15 views12 pages

    Paparan Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    Uploaded by

    Reny Rachma Wijaya
    The document discusses the concept of "black swan events" and the dangers of suppressing volatility. It argues that artificially constraining systems to promote short-term stability can make them vulnerable to large, unpredictable events. When such events inevitably occur, the harm is worsened due to the increased fragility of the system. Complex human systems are extremely difficult to predict and are characterized by high interdependence, so the rise of complexity also increases unpredictability and the risk of black swan events.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 12

    FENOMENA

    ANGSA HITAM
    The Black Swan of Cairo
    N. N. Taleb and M. Blyth (2011)

    FEBRUARY 2024

    How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous
    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    The artificially constrained systems, in the name of stability become


    extremely vulnerable to largescale events that lie far from the
    statistical norm and were largely unpredictable to a given set of
    observers

    The longer it takes for the blowup to occur, the worse the resulting
    harm in both economic and political systems

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    The rise of complexity,


    interdependence, and
    unpredictability

    ILLUSION OF The great Fragiling the


    STABILITY moderation goverment

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    SEDUCED BY STABILITY
    • SUPPORT THE INCUMBENT

    to prevent volatility on the grounds that any and all bumps in the road must be
    avoided

    PARADOXICALLY

    Increase the probability that a tail risk


    will cause a major explosion

    • Black Swans hiding behind deceptive periods of “great moderation.”


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam
    Fenomena Angsa
    Hitam

    TURKEY PROBLEM
    Thanksgiving is illustrative: the turkey
    is fed for 1,000 days and every day
    seems to confirm that the farmer
    cares for it—until the last day.

    “ a naive analysis of stability is


    derived from the absence of past
    variations “

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    LINEAR
    is characterized by its predictability and
    the low degree of interaction among its
    components

    COMPLEX
    HUMAN SYSTEM • extremely low predictability
    • high degree of interdependence

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    TIPPING POINTS POLICY ERROR

    Black Swan

    DECEPTIVE CALM

    Not statistically
    CHAOS understandable at the
    Sand pile
    individual level

    ” the illusion of local causal chains “

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    The Construction of False Confidence


    Based an erroneous focus

    M F
    A R
    S Counter
    Fallacies
    Fabricated A
    Knowledge hoax
    S U
    OPINION D
    S
    THE FEAR OF RANDOMNESS

    THE RISK OF A DICTATORSHIP

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    DEMOCRACY ?
    Where the incentive is to always promise a better outcome than the other guy,
    regardless of the actual, delayed cost.

    “ What really makes the species prosper


    is not peace so much as freedom “
    (J. J. Rousseau )

    “ SHOCK ABSORBER “

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    PERCULATION THEORY

    NO STABILITY WITHOUT VOLATILITY


    NO FREEDOM WITHOUT NOISE

    maturity
    FOOL WISDOM

    education
    STUPID CLEVER

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    HAPPY PLANET INDEX : LIFE SATISFACTION X LIFE EXPECTANCE


    ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS

    IKN FE

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam


    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

    EVERY POWERFUL MOVEMENT


    FOR TRANSFORMATIONAL SOCIAL CHANGE
    BEGINS WITH A CONVERSATION

    CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN


    ( BARACK OBAMA, 2008 )

    Fenomena Angsa Hitam

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