Simon

Holmes
à Court

WHY NUCLEAR IS
A DISTRACTION
FOR AUSTRALIA.

Smart Energy Expo — March 2024

 02 3
hor t Course 2 GE Hitachi, Wilmingt
on
MIT S
Darlington,
O ntario

A deep interest
in nuclear…
nswick
oint Lepreau, New Bru
P

Gentilly, Quebec

Simon
Holmes
à Court
Em slan d ,
rgia G ermany
Vogtle, Geo
A long history of nothing in Australia
Murray’s beach

1952 Upper Spencer Gulf mooted

1969 Jervis Bay commenced

1971 Jervis Bay project cancelled

1983 Victoria state ban

1986 NSW state ban

1998 Federal ban

2007 Queensland state ban

Simon
Holmes
à Court
“We need to have a mature
conversation about nuclear!”

2006 Ziggy Switkowski Review

2015 SA Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal

Commission

2019 Federal Parliamentary Inquiry

2020 NSW Repeal Bill Inquiry

2020 Victorian Inquiry into Nuclear

Prohibition

2023 Senate Inquiry

Simon
Holmes
à Court
The policy you have when you
don’t have a policy.

HELE Clean Coal Small Modular Reactors

Carbon capture and storage

Simon
Holmes
à Court
We’re well on the way…
Source

AEMO

2024 Draft
Integrated
System Plan

-12 years Now +12 years

Renewables 10% 39% 95%

Coal power stations 27 15 1

Emissions 175 124 9

MtCO2 MtCO2 MtCO2
Simon
Holmes
à Court
 I hate to break it to you…

Nuclear has missed

this transition

Simon
Holmes
à Court
4 barriers
to nuclear

Simon
Holmes
à Court
1 Small reactors?

SMRs that meet the definition

• 50–300MWe+
• factory produced
• fast to build Nuclear submarines

• low cost power

…do not exist.

Akademik Lomonosov (Russia)

Simon
HTR-PM (China) Holmes
à Court
1 Large reactors?
Not cheap. Not fast.

Hinkley Point C
• A$90bn
• 24 years end-to-end

24 YRS

Simon
Holmes
à Court
 Extraordinary Cost
Source

2 CSIRO

GenCost 2023-24
Estimates for project start in 2030
Nuclear (SMR) Wind+Solar+Storage Consultation draft

$212 – $353 /MWh $69 – 101 /MWh

Simon
Holmes
à Court
 Intractable Politics
Source

3 Freshwater
Strategy / AFR
Poll
Solar & wind the most popular energy sources. Australian Voters
Coal & nuclear the least popular.
Sample size
n=1,003

Fieldwork 22-24
September 2023

84% 6%

61% 12%

58% 12%

35% 35%

33% 35%

Simon
Holmes
à Court
 Politics
Source

3 Freshwater
Strategy / AFR
Poll
Coalition voters are divided on the best option Australian Voters
for energy generation in Australia.
Sample size
n=1,003

Fieldwork 22-24
September 2023

35% 32% 23% 10%

Simon
Holmes
à Court
 Suitability for Grid
Source

4 Freshwater
Strategy / AFR
Poll

Australian Voters

Sample size
n=1,003

Fieldwork 22-24
September 2023

We’re moving
from this…

Simon
Holmes
à Court
 Suitability for Grid
Source

4 Freshwater
Strategy / AFR
Poll

Australian Voters

Sample size
n=1,003

Fieldwork 22-24
September 2023

...to this

Simon
Holmes
à Court
 Suitability for Grid
Source

4 Freshwater
Strategy / AFR
Poll

Australian Voters

Sample size
n=1,003

Fieldwork 22-24
September 2023

Here’s
residual load.
Nuclear wants
flat demand.

Simon
Holmes
à Court
Coalition’s policy: a moratorium on renewables?

Assumption Results to 2050:

• start with AEMO’s
• 19,000 PJ more gas
demand projections

• keep building • 255 Mt more coal

rooftop solar
• emissions up 2,102 MtCO₂
• stop building wind
and solar farms
• cost additional $223bn
• build nuclear as
fast as France in the • blackouts?
1970s

• retire coal at end of

life

• fill gaps with gas

Simon
COAL GAS HYDRO WIND & SOLAR NUCLEAR Holmes
à Court
Coalition’s Unclear Policy Who will
insure?
Who will
What if locals handle the
object? waste? Who will
finance?

Who’s the Where will

proponent? they go? How much
extra
emissions?

How much Who will pay

extra gas? the energy
premium? What do we do
in the
meantime? Simon
Holmes
à Court
 You can only pick one

Plan
Coalitionp’oslluting,
n expensive, uts
’s Pla
O popular
blacko
AEM clean, energy
heap,
c t
an
abund

Simon
Holmes
à Court
To sum up…
It’s an impressive technology, but... Never say
it’s not available anytime soon never…
it’s uneconomic
the politics are intractable
Maybe the
next energy
it won’t play well in our grid transition?

Simon
Holmes
à Court