Analysis of the economic situation

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of key countries / regions

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Deepening Southeast Asia cooperation will stabilize the growth of
emerging economies

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In 2023, emerging economies were overall weaker. Global trade growth is
weak, and the exports of emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific have shown
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a sharp decline. Since April 2023, the monthly exports of Indonesia,
Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and other countries have basically decreased
by more than 10% year-on-year. However, strong domestic demand was the
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main factor supporting the growth of emerging economies in the

Asia-Pacific, with consumer spending in the Philippines and Indonesia
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both up about 5.1% in the third quarter year on year, driving GDP growth
of 5.9% and 4.9% respectively. Affected by the reduction of crude oil
production, the economic growth of the Middle East in 2023 was driven by
non-energy sectors, and under the high base effect, the growth rate of
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the region weakened significantly. In the second quarter, Saudi Arabia's

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GDP grew only 1.2% year on year, down about 10% compared with the same
period last year.
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Latin America's emerging economies are sharply divided, with Brazil and
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Mexico both GDP growing by more than 3% in the first two quarters of 2023,
while Argentina faces both high inflation and negative growth. Some
emerging economies in Europe are slowly recovering, with Poland's GDP
growing 0.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the first increase
this year and inflation falling below 8% every month. Growth in emerging
economies are weak, with South Africa's GDP growing 1.6% in the third
quarter from a year earlier, the highest this year. African countries
inflation trend is clearly divided. South Africa inflation is relatively
 low, with the CPI rising 5.5% in September from a year earlier. And rising
prices in Egypt and Nigeria, with 37.4% and 25.8% in August respectively.

Looking ahead to 2024, emerging economies will have both growth

opportunities and challenges, and the Southeast Asia cooperation will
become an important focus. The overall economic growth rate is expected
to be around 4%, slightly higher than that in 2023.

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The improvement in the international commodity trade situation is

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expected to drive the recovery of exports from Southeast Asian economies.
Asia's emerging economies are mainly export-oriented. Increasing global
trade uncertainty has weighed on exports from many countries and weakened

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the drive of economic growth. As of the third quarter of 2023, the economic
growth rate of Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and

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Cambodia have not recovered to previous levels (Figure 13). As the
interest rate hike cycle in major economies draws to an end, global trade
may pick up in 2024, and the WTO forecasts that global commodity trade
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will grow by 3.3%, significantly higher than the 0.8% rate in 2023. An
improving global trade situation will drive growth in emerging economies.
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Chart 13: Year-on-Year GDP growth rate of some emerging Asian Economies (%)
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Green environmenal transformation and energy security provide

opportunities for diversified economic development in the Middle East.
In the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy security
 has become an issue of wide concern to the international community. Major
energy importers have made great efforts to develop renewable energy and
promote the diversification of energy supply. In this context, the
economic growth model of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
and other countries relying on oil and gas exports cannot be sustained.
The above countries are gradually accelerating the development of
renewable energy and actively fostering new drives of economic growth.
In recent years, emerging economies in the Middle East have formulated
energy transformation strategies, and their investment areas have

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gradually expanded from traditional energy to emerging industries such

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as artificial intelligence, big data, new energy and medical care, so as
to promote sustainable growth with a diversified economic structure.

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Southeast Asia cooperation has been deepened and a new framework for

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international cooperation has been established. At present, the
geopolitical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Palestine and Israel
continues, and the uncertainty of the global economic operation is
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increasing. In 2023, international cooperation summits such as the
China-Central Asia Summit, the BRICS Summit and the Belt and Road Forum
for International Cooperation were held, which reached consensus on
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safeguarding national security, unleashing the potential of economic and
trade cooperation and improving cooperation mechanisms, providing a
platform for international cooperation for emerging economies. Thanks to
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the above mechanisms, Southeast Asia cooperation is expected to

strengthen in the future and jointly seek new opportunities for
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development.
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