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Metodo Minimos Cuadrados-1
Metodo Minimos Cuadrados-1
ajuste lineal
año de registro
poblaciòn (p) T2 T*P
(T)
1910 165 3648100 315150
1921 183 3690241 351543
1930 193 3724900 372490
1940 265 3763600 514100
1950 285 3802500 555750
1960 374 3841600 733040
1970 564 3880900 1111080
1980 783 3920400 1550340
1990 1020 3960100 2029800
1995 1310 3980025 2613450
2000 1299 4000000 2598000
2005 1748 4020025 3504740
sumatorias 23551 8189 46232391 16249483
total de datos 12
a=
8189-15.3471972*23551
12
b= 12*16249483-23551*8189
12*46232391-23551^2
12*16249483-23551*8189
r=
r= √ (12*46232391-(23551)^2)*(12*8819879-(8189^2))
años de proyeccion 20
año de inicio de proyeccion 2011
80
87
96
136
133
183
263
371
500
642
661
901
P2
27225
33489
37249
70225
81225
139876
318096
613089
1040400
1716100
1687401
3055504
8819879
-29437.737
15.3471972
2134657 2134657
= = = 0.91913912476057
= = = 0.91913912476057
√ 5.39379E+12 2322452.546
2000
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1000
800
600
400
200
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
año de poblaciòn
T2 In (p)
registro (T) (p)
1910 165 3648100 5.105945
1921 183 3690241 5.209486
1930 193 3724900 5.262690
1940 265 3763600 5.579730
1950 285 3802500 5.652489
1960 374 3841600 5.924256
1970 564 3880900 6.335054
1980 783 3920400 6.663133
1990 1020 3960100 6.927558
1995 1310 3980025 7.177782
2000 1299 4000000 7.169350
2005 1748 4020025 7.466228
sumatorias 23551 8189 46232391 74.4737014621648
total de datos 12
74.4737014621648-0.02601682*23551
a = exp
12
12*146462.403997084-23551*74.4737014621648
b
12*46232391-23551^2
12*146462.403997084-23551*74.4737014621648
r
√ (12*46232391-(23551)^2)*(12*470.2721-(74.4737014621648)^2)
años de proyeccion 20
año de inicio de proyeccion 2011
9752.35586 26.070679
10007.42290 27.138746
10156.99206 27.695908
10824.67586 31.133385
11022.35390 31.950634
11611.54136 35.096807
12480.05688 40.132912
13193.00274 44.397337
13785.84023 47.991059
14319.67592 51.520560
14338.70003 51.399580
14969.78625 55.744554
146462.403997084 470.2722
= 3.31241E-20
= 0.0260168151
3618.7048296 361,870,483
= √ 13482608.46 = 3671.86716 = 0.985521717
Chart Title
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
año de poblaciòn
P2 In (t)
registro (T) (p)
1910 165 27225 7.554859
1921 183 33489 7.560601
1930 193 37249 7.565275
1940 265 70225 7.570443
1950 285 81225 7.575585
1960 374 139876 7.580700
1970 564 318096 7.585789
1980 783 613089 7.590852
1990 1020 1040400 7.595890
1995 1310 1716100 7.598399
2000 1299 1687401 7.600902
2005 1748 3055504 7.603399
sumatorias 23551 8189 8819879 90.9826946132938
total de datos 12
8189-(29966.644*90.9826946132938)
a 12
12*62178.677879590-90.9826946132938*8189
b 12*689.823913625859-90.9826946132938^2
r 12*621778.6778795902-90.9826946132938*8189
√12*689.823913625859-90.9826946132938^2*12*8819879-8189^2
años de proyeccion 20
año de inicio de proyeccion 2011
1246.55166 57.075887
1383.59001 57.162690
1460.09813 57.233390
2006.16746 57.311611
2159.04163 57.389483
2835.18171 57.467009
4278.38490 57.544192
5943.63721 57.621036
7747.80772 57.697544
9953.90312 57.735672
9873.57229 57.773718
13290.74205 57.811682
62178.677879590 689.823913625859
=
-226673.06
=
29986.6443963544
1086.84836681967 1086.84837
= √ 1405515.87683671 = 1185.54455 = 0.916750339
Chart Title
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
año de poblaciòn
P2 In (t) ln(p)
registro (T) (p)
1910 165 27225 7.554859 5.105945
1921 183 33489 7.560601 5.209486
1930 193 37249 7.565275 5.262690
1940 265 70225 7.570443 5.579730
1950 285 81225 7.575585 5.652489
1960 374 139876 7.580700 5.924256
1970 564 318096 7.585789 6.335054
1980 783 613089 7.590852 6.663133
1990 1020 1040400 7.595890 6.927558
1995 1310 1716100 7.598399 7.177782
2000 1299 1687401 7.600902 7.169350
2005 1748 3055504 7.603399 7.466228
SUMATORIAS 23551 8189 8819879 90.9826946132938 74.473701
TOTAL DE DA 12
ln(T)*ln(P) (lnt)^2 (lnP)^2