Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez

manuel.perez@tamu.edu
Statistics 630
Assignment 1
Chapter 1: Introduction to Probability

Solution:

𝑎: 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 𝑐 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 𝑒: 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶
𝑏: 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 𝑓: 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶
𝑐: 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 𝑐 𝑔: 𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 𝑐 ∩ 𝐶
𝑑: 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 𝑐 ∩ 𝐶

Solution:
1
a) 𝑃({1}) = 12

b) By the additivity property for disjoint events (Property 1.2.4), we have:

𝑃({1,2}) = 𝑃({1}) + 𝑃({2}).
1 1 1
Then, 𝑃({2}) = 𝑃({1,2}) − 𝑃({1}) = 6 − 12 = 12

c) By Property 1.2.4, we have: 𝑃({1,2,3}) = 𝑃({1}) + 𝑃({2}) + 𝑃({3}).

1 1 1 1
Then, 𝑃({3}) = 𝑃({1,2,3}) − 𝑃({1}) − 𝑃({2}) = 3 − 12 − 12 = 6

d) By Property 1.2.3, we have: 𝑃(𝑆) = 1. Then, with the additivity property (1.2.4) we have:
𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑃({1, 2, 3, 4}) = 𝑃({1}) + 𝑃({2}) + 𝑃({3}) + 𝑃({4}) = 1.
1 1 1 2
So, 𝑃({4}) = 1 − 𝑃({1}) − 𝑃({2}) − 𝑃({3}) = 1 − 12 − 12 − 6 = 3.

1
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:

First, note that by the entire sample space and additivity properties, we have:
𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑃({1, 2, 3, 4}) = 𝑃({1}) + 𝑃({2}) + 𝑃({3}) + 𝑃({4}) = 1 (1)
1
We are given that: 𝑃({1}) − 8 = 𝑃({2}) = 3𝑃({3}) = 4𝑃({4}). This implies that:
1 1 1 1 1
𝑃({2}) = 𝑃({1}) − ; 𝑃({3}) = 𝑃({1}) − ; 𝑃({4}) = 𝑃({1}) −
8 3 24 4 32

Putting this into equation (1) we get:

1 1 1 1 1 31 19
𝑃({1}) + 𝑃({1}) − 8 + 3 𝑃({1}) − 24 + 4 𝑃({1}) − 32 = 1 ⟶ 𝑃({1}) − 96 = 1 .
12

This yields:
12 19 115
𝑃({1}) = 31 (1 + 96) = 248
1 115 1 21
𝑃({2}) = 𝑃({1}) − 8 = 248 − 8 = 62
1 1 1 115 1 7
𝑃({3}) = 𝑃({1}) − = ( )− =
3 24 3 248 24 62
1 1 1 115 1 21
𝑃({4}) = 4 𝑃({1}) − 32 = 4 (248) − 32 = 248
115 21 7 21
We can check that: + 62 + 62 + 248 = 1 = 𝑃(𝑆).
248

Solution:

Let 𝐴: denote the event that the employee arrives late

𝐵: denote the event that the employee leaves early
Then, form the question we have: 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.10, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.20, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.05
Then, the probability that on a given day the employee will either arrive late or leave early (or
both) is:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.10 + 0.20 − 0.05 = 0.25.

2
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:

Let 𝐴: denote the event that my right knee is sore

𝐵: denote the event that my left knee is sore
Then, from the question we have: 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.15, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.10.
Then, the event that at least one of my knees is sore is:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.15 + 0.10 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.25 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

Because the probability is nonnegative (Property 1.2.1), to make the value of 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) largest
we need let 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0. Thus, the largest value for 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.25. Therefore, the largest
possible percentage of time that at least one of my knees is sore is 25%.

On the other hand, to get the smallest value of 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵), first we know that 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ⊂ 𝐵. Then
by monotonicity (Corollary 1.3.1) we have 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≤ 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.10. Thus, the smallest value
for 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.25 − 0.10 = 0.15, which is the case that 𝐵 is included in 𝐴. Therefore, the
smallest possible percentage of time that at least one of my knees is sore is 15%.

Solution:
From the information given, we have that:
𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 0.55, 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∩ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) = 0.44
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) = 0.45, 𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∩ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) = 0.15
Then, we are asked to find 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∪ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟). By Theorem 1.3.3, we know that:
𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∪ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) + 𝑃(𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) − 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∩ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟)

Note that a person is either male or female. This implies that

𝑃(𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∩ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) + 𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∩ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) = 0.44 + 0.15 = 0.59

Thus, 𝑃(𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 ∪ 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑎𝑖𝑟) = 0.55 + 0.59 − 0.44 = 0.70.

Therefore, the probability that a student chosen at random will either be female or have long
hair (or both) is 0.70.

3
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:
1
a) For each roll, the probability that any of the dice shows a 6 is 6, because the probability

should be equal for showing a certain side for a dice. Now, because all the eight rolls are
independent, then the probability for the event that all eight dice show a six is the product
1 8 1
of their individual probabilities, that is, (6) = 1,679,616.

b) Note that the first dice can be any number from 1 to 6. Then, each of the seven remainder
1
dice have chance of matching with the first number. Thus, the probability of all eight
6

1 7 1
dice show the same number is (6) = 279,936.

We can solve this by another way. The desired outcomes are: (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1),
1 8
(2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2), … , (6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6). Each of these outcomes has probability ( ) , so
6
6

𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒) = ∑ 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑖)
𝑖=1

1 8 1 7 1
= 6 ⋅ (6) = (6) = 279,936 .

c) We know that the smallest number for each roll is 1. This means that we need seven dice
showing 1 and one dice showing 2 to make the sum of eight dice equal to 9. The number
of ways to choose one out of eight dice with number 2 is eight, so there are eight outcomes
1 8
of rolling a total of 9. For each way the probability is (6) . Therefore, the probability of

1 8 1
the sum of the eight dice is equal to 9 is 8 ⋅ (6) = 209,952.

4
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:

There is (52
5
) number of different subsets of size five that we can construct by choosing
elements from the 52-card deck (assuming that the order is irrelevant).
a) The number of subsets of size five with all four aces plus the king of spades is (44) ⋅ (11).
Thus,
(44) ⋅ (11) 1
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠) = = = 3.847693 × 10−7
(52
5
) 2,598,960

b) Among the 52-card deck, there are 13 spades. The number of subsets of size five with all
five cards are spades is (13
5
). Thus,

(13
5
) 1,287
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑓𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠) = = = 0.0004951981
(52
5
) 2,598,960

c) Among the 52-card deck, we know there are four types (spades, diamonds, club and hearts)
of each different face values. If we pick one card out of 52 cards, the next card should be
picked among 48 to avoid making a pair. On similar way, the third card should be picked
among 44, the four among 40 and the fifth among 36. Since the order is irrelevant, we need
to divide by 5! to exclude combinations. Thus, the number of possible desired outcomes is
52×48×44×40×36
5!
, or in other way, given a suit we can choose (13
5
) × 45 . Thus,
52 × 48 × 44 × 40 × 36
5! (13
5
) ∙ 45 1,317,888
𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠) = = = = 0.5070828.
(52
5
) (525
) 2,598,960

d) We know the 52-card deck has four types (spades, diamonds, club and hearts). For each
type, we would need to pick a face value which will be our triple (there are three (13
1
)
different face values), and for each of these face values, we would need to pick three from
the four possible types (that is, (43) possible triples). In addition, for each of these face

values, we would need to choose from the (12

1
) remaining face values and a new face value

that will be our pair. For each of these face values, we must choose (42) cards from the
possible suits. Thus, by the multiplication rule:
(13
1
)(43)(12)(4)
1 2 3,744
𝑃(𝑎 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒) = = = 0.001440576.
(52
5
) 2,598,960

5
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:

There is (52
2
) number of different subsets of size two that we can construct by choosing
elements from the 52-card deck (assuming that the order is irrelevant).
Let’s consider the complementary event, that is, the sum of values of two card is at most 3.
There are two possibilities for this: either the sum of values of two cards is 2 (two aces) or the
sum of values of two cards is 3 (one ace and one two). Now,
(42) 1 (41)(41) 8
𝑃(𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠) = = and 𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜) = = .
(52
2) 221 (52
2) 663

Then, by the complement event property:

1 8 652
𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 ≥ 4) = 1 − 221 − 63 = 663 .

Solution:
Here, we have two sub-events for this event: all six balls are red or all six balls are blue.
Urn #1 has 5 red and 7 blue balls. There is a total of (12
3
) ways to choose three balls from this
(53) (73)
urn. From this urn, 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑) = and 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = .
(12
3) (12
3)

Urn #2 has 6 red and 12 blue balls. There is a total of (18

3
) ways to choose three balls from this
(63) (12
3)
urn. From this urn, 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑) = and 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = .
(18
3) (18
3)

Then, for both urns:

(53)(63) 5 (73)(12
3) 35
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑) = = 4,488 and 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = = 816
(12 18
3 )( 3 ) (12 18
3 )( 3 )

Thus, the probability for all six balls having the same color is the sum of the above two probability,
5 35 395
i.e., 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑) + 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 4,488 + 816 = 8,976 = 0.044.

6
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:
Let´s denote red=R and green=G.
a) 𝑆 = { (𝑅1, 𝐺1), (𝑅1, 𝐺2), (𝑅1, 𝐺3), (𝑅1, 𝐺4), (𝑅1, 𝐺5), (𝑅1, 𝐺6),
(𝑅2, 𝐺1), (𝑅2, 𝐺2), (𝑅2, 𝐺3), (𝑅2, 𝐺4), (𝑅2, 𝐺5), (𝑅2, 𝐺6),
(𝑅3, 𝐺1), (𝑅3, 𝐺2), (𝑅3, 𝐺3), (𝑅3, 𝐺4), (𝑅3, 𝐺5), (𝑅3, 𝐺6),
(𝑅4, 𝐺1), (𝑅4, 𝐺2), (𝑅4, 𝐺3), (𝑅4, 𝐺4), (𝑅4, 𝐺5), (𝑅4, 𝐺6),
(𝑅5, 𝐺1), (𝑅5, 𝐺2), (𝑅5, 𝐺3), (𝑅5, 𝐺4), (𝑅5, 𝐺5), (𝑅5, 𝐺6),
(𝑅6, 𝐺1), (𝑅6, 𝐺2), (𝑅6, 𝐺3), (𝑅6, 𝐺4), (𝑅6, 𝐺5), (𝑅6, 𝐺6) }

b) 𝐴 = { (𝑅2, 𝐺6), (𝑅3, 𝐺5), (𝑅3, 𝐺6), (𝑅4, 𝐺4), (𝑅4, 𝐺5), (𝑅4, 𝐺6), (𝑅5, 𝐺3), (𝑅5, 𝐺4),
(𝑅5, 𝐺5), (𝑅5, 𝐺6), (𝑅6, 𝐺2), (𝑅6, 𝐺3), (𝑅6, 𝐺4), (𝑅6, 𝐺5), (𝑅6, 𝐺6) }

𝐵 = { (𝑅1, 𝐺2), (𝑅1, 𝐺3), (𝑅1, 𝐺4), (𝑅1, 𝐺5), (𝑅1, 𝐺6), (𝑅2, 𝐺3), (𝑅2, 𝐺4), (𝑅2, 𝐺5),
(𝑅2, 𝐺6), (𝑅3, 𝐺4), (𝑅3, 𝐺5), (𝑅3, 𝐺6), (𝑅4, 𝐺5), (𝑅4, 𝐺6), (𝑅5, 𝐺6) }

𝐶 = { (𝑅1, 𝐺3), (𝑅2, 𝐺3), (𝑅3, 𝐺3), (𝑅4, 𝐺3), (𝑅5, 𝐺3), (𝑅6, 𝐺3) }

c) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = { (𝑅2, 𝐺6), (𝑅3, 𝐺5), (𝑅3, 𝐺6), (𝑅4, 𝐺5), (𝑅4, 𝐺6), (𝑅5, 𝐺6) }

𝐴 ∪ 𝐶 = { (𝑅2, 𝐺6), (𝑅3, 𝐺5), (𝑅3, 𝐺6), (𝑅4, 𝐺4), (𝑅4, 𝐺5), (𝑅4, 𝐺6), (𝑅5, 𝐺3), (𝑅5, 𝐺4),
(𝑅5, 𝐺5), (𝑅5, 𝐺6), (𝑅6, 𝐺2), (𝑅6, 𝐺3), (𝑅6, 𝐺4), (𝑅6, 𝐺5), (𝑅6, 𝐺6),
(𝑅1, 𝐺3), (𝑅2, 𝐺3), (𝑅3, 𝐺3), (𝑅4, 𝐺3) }

𝐵 ∩ (𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = { (𝑅2, 𝐺6), (𝑅3, 𝐺5), (𝑅3, 𝐺6), (𝑅4, 𝐺5), (𝑅4, 𝐺6), (𝑅5, 𝐺6), (𝑅1, 𝐺3), (𝑅2, 𝐺3) }

6 1 19 8 2
d) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 36 = 6 𝑃( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = 36 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ (𝐴 ∪ 𝐶)) = 36 = 9

2 15 6
e) No, because they are not independent. We have 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = 36 ≠ 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐶) = 36 × 36 .

7
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:
a) The R code and result are as follows:

Thus, based on these simulations, the estimated probability that at least two students in a class
of 100 share the same ID number is about 0.39024.

𝑃
100, 10,000
b) The exact probability is given by 𝑃(100) = 1 − (10,000) 100 .

Using R to compute this (code and result below), we have: 𝑃(100) = 0.391434.

8
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
c) The R code and result are as follows:

From these, the smallest class enrollment for which the probability that at least two students

have the same ID numbers is at least 0.5, is 119.

9
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:
1 3 1
a) 𝑃(𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = (2) = 8
1
b) First, note that 𝑃(𝑜𝑑𝑑) = 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = 2. This is the same than
1 3 1 3 1
𝑃(𝑜𝑑𝑑) = 𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑) + 𝑃(𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑒 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑) = (31) (2) + (33) (2) = 2.
1
Also, 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = 8. Then, by the conditional probability’s definition:
𝑃((𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠)∩𝑜𝑑𝑑) 1/8 1
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠|𝑜𝑑𝑑) = = 1/2 = 4
𝑃(𝑜𝑑𝑑)
𝑃((𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠)∩𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛)
c) Similarly, 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠|𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = . But, we know when all coins are heads,
𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛)

then the number of heads is three (which is odd). Thus, 𝑃((𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) ∩ 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = 0.
Therefore, 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠|𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛) = 0.

Solution:

a) We have: 𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) = 0.80 and 𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) = 0.20.

Also, 𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟|𝑓𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) = 0.08 and 𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟|𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) = 0.05.
Then, by the Law of total probability, conditioned version (Theorem 1.5.1) we have:
𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟|𝑓𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) + 𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟|𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)
= 0.80(0.08) + 0.20(0.05) = 0.074.

10
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
b) We need to find 𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠|ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟). By definition of conditional probability and Bayes’
Theorem, we have:
𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠∩ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟) 𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟|𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)
𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠|ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟) = =
𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟) 𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟)
0.20×0.05 5
= = 37 = 0.135
0.074

b) We need to find 𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠|𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟). By definition of conditional probability and

Bayes’ Theorem, we have:
𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠∩𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟) 𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟| 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)
𝑃(𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠|𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟) = =
𝑃(𝑛𝑜𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟) 1−𝑃(ℎ𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑟)
0.20×(1−0.05) 95
= = 463 = 0.205.
1−0.074

Solution:

From Exercise 1.4.11m we got that:

5 35 395
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 4,488 ; 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 816 ; and 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟) = 8,976
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑∩𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟)
We need: 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑|𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟)

But, because 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑 ⊆ 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟, then 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑 ∩ 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑).
It follows that,
5
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑) 4,488 2
𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑑|𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑟) = 395 = 79 .
8,976

11
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:

Let’s define: 𝐶𝑖 : each card for 𝑖 = 1,2,3; R: read; and B: Black.

a) By the Lar of total probability, conditional version, we have:
𝑃(𝑅) = 𝑃(𝐶1 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐶1 ) + 𝑃(𝐶2 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐶2 ) + 𝑃(𝐶3 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐶3 )
1 1 1 1
=3⋅1+3∙0+3⋅2
1
=2

b) We need to find 𝑃(𝐶1 |𝑅). By the Bayes’ theorem, we have:

𝑃(𝐶1 ) 1/3 2
𝑃(𝐶1 |𝑅) = 𝑃(𝑅)
𝑃(𝑅|𝐶1 ) = 1/2 ⋅ 1 = 3 .

Solution:
a) First, since the card is randomly selected to be behind door A, B or C, then
1
𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶) = .
3

We need to find: 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴|𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵). By Bayes’ theorem, we know:

𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵)
𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴|𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) =
𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵)

12
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
1) Let’s determine 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵). For this, there are three possibilities:
𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴)
+ 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
+ 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶)
But, by the statement of the problem, the second one is not possible, i.e.,
𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 0
So, 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶)

= 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵|𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴) 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴)

+ 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵| 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶) 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶)
1 1 1
= 2 3
∙ +1∙3
1
= 2.

2) Let’s determine 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵). By conditional probability,

𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵|𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴)𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴 )
1 1
= 2 3
∙
1
= 6.

Therefore,
1
6 1
𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐴|𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) = 1 = .
3
2

b) Now, we need to find 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶|𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵). By Bayes’ theorem:

𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵)
𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶|𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) =
𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵)
1
Form part a), 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) = 2.

So let’s find 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵). By conditional probability,

𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵|𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶)𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶 )
1
= 1∙3
1
= 3.

Therefore,
1
3 2
𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝐶|𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛 𝐵) = 1 = 3.
2

13
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
Solution:

Because the gene that a parent transmits to one offspring is independent of the one he transmits
to another, then
1 2 1 2 1
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑎) = ( ) + ( ) =
2 2 2
1 2 1 2 1
𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑎) = ( ) + ( ) =
2 2 2
1 2 1 2 1
𝑃(𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑎) = ( ) + ( ) =
2 2 2
Now,
1 3 1
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒 𝑎) = 2 ∙ ( ) =
2 4
1
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒) =
4
1
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒) =
4
1 1 1
Note that: 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 4 = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐶); 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐷) = 4 = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐷); 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 4 = 𝑃(𝐶)𝑃(𝐷),
so the events are pairwise independent (by Example 1.5.4). However,
1 1
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑙𝑙 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒) = 4 ≠ 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐶)𝑃(𝐷) = 8

Therefore, events 𝐵, 𝐶 and 𝐷 are not mutually independent.

14
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez
 A

Solution:
Let´s divide the whole system into three systems A, B and C, as shown above. Then,
𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = 𝑃(𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐵 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐶 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)
= 𝑃(𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) × 𝑃(𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐵 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) × 𝑃(𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐶 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)
(since they are independent).
Now,
𝑃(𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐴 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = 𝑃(1 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑜𝑟 2 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)
= 1 − 𝑃(1 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑜𝑟 2 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑐
= 1 − 𝑃(1 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙)
= 1 − [𝑃(1 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙) × 𝑃(2 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙)]
= 1 − [(1 − 𝑝) × (1 − 𝑝)]
= 1 − (1 − 𝑝)2

𝑃(𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐵 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = 𝑝
𝑃(𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝐶 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = 𝑃(4 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 𝑜𝑟 5 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)
= 1 − [𝑃(4 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙) × 𝑃(5 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙)]
= 1 − (1 − 𝑝)2
Thus,
𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = [1 − (1 − 𝑝)2 ] × 𝑝 × [1 − (1 − 𝑝)2 ]
= [1 − 1 + 2𝑝 − 𝑝2 ] × 𝑝 × [1 − 1 + 2𝑝 − 2𝑝2 ]
= (2𝑝 − 𝑝2 ) × 𝑝 × (2𝑝 − 𝑝2 )
= (2𝑝 − 𝑝2 )2 × 𝑝
= (4𝑝2 − 4𝑝3 + 𝑝4 ) × 𝑝
= 4𝑝3 − 4𝑝4 + 𝑝5

15
Manuel Alberto Pérez Pérez