M ASTER ’ S T HESIS O PPORTUNITY (available with immediate effect)

D MAVT
Disaggregating Efficiency Improvements in Air Transportation

S UPERVISORS

Michael Weinold, MSc ETH Prof. Dr. Russell McKenna

Paul Scherrer Institute ETH Zurich
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis Group for Energy Systems Analysis
Group for Technology Assessment Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering
michael.weinold@psi.ch rmckenna@ethz.ch

December 2022

A BSTRACT
Global air transport today constitutes around 2% of global carbon emissions [1]. Industry and policy
makers have thus agreed to work towards "net-zero air transport by 2050" [2]. The required effi-
ciency improvements will necessitate novel aircraft designs, such as those shown in Figure 1 and the
large-scale production of synthetic fuels [2]. Modern passenger aircraft already burn 95% less fuel
per passenger kilometer than the first jet aircraft of the 1950s [3]. However, the underlying drivers
of this improvement are still poorly understood. This is because overall efficiency is an aggregate
metric, which is affected by aircraft weight, engine efficiency, drag, seat load factor, routing, oper-
ational procedures, etc. Some of these are limited by physics, others by economical considerations.
In order to provide higher accuracy predictions about future air transport efficiency, it is necessary to
better understand and dis-aggregate the exact contribution of technological improvements and other
factors. of different improvements are still poorly understood. This will close a vital gap in our
understanding of technological innovation in aviation.

Figure 1: Three future aircraft concepts. Left to right: a blended-wing body (BWB) aircraft, the Boeing transsonic
truss-braced wing (TTBW) aircraft, an Airbus variant of the NASA single-aisle turboelectric aircraft with aft boundary-
layer propulsion (STARC-ABL).

16/12/22 (revision 4e76b45)

Disaggregating Efficiency Improvements in Air Transportation M ASTER ’ S T HESIS O PPORTUNITY

1 Research Context
In order to reduce associated carbon emissions and eventually achieve carbon-neutral aviation, government agencies
and industry associations have set targets for continuous fuel efficiency improvements [4]. These are around 20 − 25%
for successive aircraft families and an additional compound annual overall fuel efficiency improvement of 0.2% within
the same aircraft family. This corresponds to a fleet-average compound annual overall fuel efficiency improvement of
2% until 2050 [5]. Improvements of this magnitude are ambitious, since air transport has already seen large efficiency
improvements in the past [3].
However, a preliminary literature review has found that past and future efficiency improvements are often discussed
only superficially in scientific literature and government reports (for instance, "Future efficiency improvements are
expected to continue at a much lower rate." [6]). Concerning historical efficiency data, this is done without refer-
ence to the underlying drivers of overall improvements or their physical limits. Concerning projections, this is done
without reference to the underlying assumptions on incremental technological improvements or the introduction of
novel aircraft designs. Since overall efficiency is a aggregate metric, it is affected cumulatively by a set of variables or
sub-efficiencies, such as propulsive efficiency, weight or the seat load factor. The basic governing equation is:
(︃ )︃
specific fuel burn weight 1
fuel burn per passenger kilometer ∼ × × (1)
speed lift/drag number of passengers
Each sub-efficiency is in turn limited either by physical or by economical considerations. Improvements can come
from both engineering and administrative changes: At the level of routing, improved airspace management can reduce
holding times or provide access to more direct airways. At the level of aircraft design, improvements in material
science can reduce air resistance and overall fuselage weight. At the level of engine design, high-performance ceramics
and alloys and resulting higher bypass ratios can reduce specific fuel burn. Therefore, any reasonable projection of
overall efficiency must consider the underlying sub-efficiencies, their physical limits, their respective historical rates
of progress, the economical implications of further improvements and the technological readiness level of solutions
affecting the sub-efficiency. This also means that evidence-based policy recommendations about further research to
accelerate innovation in sustainable aviation cannot currently be made.

2 Goals of the Thesis

The aim of the thesis will be to provide the most accurate dis-aggregated picture of historical efficiency improvements
in air transport to date and by extension provide the first ever evidence-based efficiency forecast for air transport. This
will require:

1. Identifying and estimating past drivers (sub-efficiencies) of efficiency improvements and their contribution to
overall efficiency. This will include the formulation of a set of relevant sub-efficiencies and specific investi-
gations into their historical progress.
2. Estimating the physical and economical limitations of different sub-efficiencies. This will require computa-
tions based on some of the the governing equations of aerodynamics or thermodynamics. This will provide
important context for any efficiency projections.
3. Where applicable, assessing the technological readiness level of different novel aircraft designs and their
impact on different sub-efficiencies. This might require interviews with experts from industry, considering
the large number of novel approaches and the lack of data on their expected performance.

3 Methods
In order to best capture historical progress in a field of research where innovation is driven primarily by industry,
a multi-method approach is suggested. The initial compilation of performance and efficiency data will include a
systematic review of existing technical and scientific literature. Where required, efficiency metrics can thereafter be
computed with the help of the governing equations of aerodynamics and thermodynamics. Where applicable, physical
limits to efficiency can be provided in a similar manner, considering current and projected technological constraints.
To finally understand the different contributors to total efficiency improvements, different statistical methods may be
used for the evaluation and interpretation of gathered and computed data. In particular, different methods from the
field of decomposition analysis (the Additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method or the Additive Sato-Vartia
Indicator) can be used to compute the contribution of single technologies on overall efficiency [7].

2
Disaggregating Efficiency Improvements in Air Transportation M ASTER ’ S T HESIS O PPORTUNITY

4 Administrative Information
The thesis will be conducted in the Group for Technology Assessment at Paul Scherrer Intitute. If you are a student of
the Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering at ETH Zurich, your official academic supervisor will be Prof.
Dr. Russell McKenna. If you are a student of another department of ETH Zurich, consult with your track supervisor
or the departmental secretariat to inquire about the administrative steps required to conduct a thesis with a department
other than your own. Otherwise, you may choose an official academic supervisor from your home institution.

5 Applicant Profile
Applicants must be enrolled in a masters level university program in either engineering, mathematics, physics or
interdisciplinary natural sciences. We are looking for candidates with:

1. advanced knowledge of data manipulation in Python (pandas or numpy)

familiarity with distributed version control systems (git) is a plus
2. advanced knowledge of code-based scientific visualization tools (matplotlib or pgfplots)
familiarity with scientific typesetting software (LATEX) is a plus
3. a strong interest in aviation specifically and sustainable transport in general
4. excellent command of the English language
knowledge in German and/or French is a plus, due to possible industry collaborations

6 Application

To apply, send the following documents to Michael Weinold (michael.weinold@psi.ch):

1. CV
2. application letter
3. / overview of academic grades
4. / confirmation of university enrollment
Please combine the files into a single PDF document.

References
[1] M. Prussi, U. Lee, M. Wang, et al., “CORSIA: The first internationally adopted approach to calculate life-cycle
GHG emissions for aviation fuels,” en, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 150, p. 111 398, Oct.
2021, ISSN: 13640321. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111398.
[2] “Waypoint 2050,” ATAG, Geneva, Switzerland, Tech. Rep., Sep. 2021. [Online]. Available: https : / /
aviationbenefits.org/environmental-efficiency/climate-action/waypoint-2050/.
[3] D. Lee, D. Fahey, A. Skowron, et al., “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for
2000 to 2018,” en, Atmospheric Environment, vol. 244, p. 117 834, Jan. 2021, ISSN: 13522310. DOI: 10.1016/
j.atmosenv.2020.117834.
[4] J. Beevor and A. Keith, “Missed Targets: A brief history of aviation climate targets of the early 21st cen-
tury,” en, Green Gumption, Tech. Rep., May 2022. [Online]. Available: https://static1.squarespace.
com/static/5d30896202a18c0001b49180/t/6273db16dcb32d309eaf126e/1651759897885/Missed-
Targets-Report.pdf.
[5] “ICAO Environmental Report 2022,” en, ICAO, Tech. Rep., 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.icao.
int/environmental-protection/Pages/envrep2022.aspx.
[6] S. Nick and P. Thalmann, “Towards True Climate Neutrality for Global Aviation: A Negative Emissions Fund for
Airlines,” en, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, vol. 15, no. 11, p. 505, Nov. 2022, ISSN: 1911-8074.
DOI : 10.3390/jrfm15110505.
[7] P. de Boer and J. F. D. Rodrigues, “Decomposition analysis: When to use which method?” en, Economic Systems
Research, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 1–28, Jan. 2020, ISSN: 0953-5314, 1469-5758. DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2019.
1652571.