Halaman 98

EX .
2.118

601 = 0.06

positif 15% ) 05

}
o -

1-(0.0500-1) = 0.85
Weqatif ( 10% ) o - i

Define events

C =
{ the women over too has cancer }
P =

{ the test gives a positive result }

?
'
A =
( CIP ) =

Plc )
'

Known :
=
0.06 Plc ) =
0.94

'
PCP / c) = 0.1
,
Pfplc )
'
= 0.05

Plp
'
Jwb PCCIP ) Plc )
'
: = / c)

Plp / c) plc )
' '

Plp
'

/ c) pcc) +

(o 1) (0.06 )
-

( 0.1 ) ( 0.06 ) + (1-0.05110-94)

=
0.0067
Ex 2.102

1^-7 I
Assume that the host with the
would not open the door you picked nor the door prize .

Define events

A =
{ The prize is behind door A }
B =
{ " "
B }
C :
1 "
"
c }

H :{ You picked door A and the host open door B ,

while there is no
prize in door B }

0 :
P ( Alt ) =
";÷
Known : PLA ) = PCB) = PCC) =
Is

PCHIA ) : I

PIHIB) =
0 → gave ada kemungkinan km let pihih B dibona

PLH / C ) = 1 KI pitih C/ A dibukeaya B yg gas ada prize nya

PIAIH ) = PCHIA) PIA)

PIHIA) PCA) -1 PIHIB ) PCB) -1 PIH / c) PIC)

= IE ) Cts )

III. I ;-) + o + (1) (E)

=÷= :< ±

=
 H happen's
PCH ④) = when c happen ,

prob
"
"

my
u

try .÷÷'
D-

To
☒ no

host
1-

change
☒
A
# other
✓ opÉn
¥ ✗

¥
" ⇐
open the
other

¥ wrong ¥ open dad

①
a

v04 .

* ¥⑦¥i .

Or
Ex 3.31 hat 114

Random Variable

1 I
✗ ✗
Y =
time until a major repair ☐

tI .

74

{
1-
e- exponential
4 i yzo
fly, =
distribution

0 else

"
a) P :{ Y > 6 } =
SEE e- 4dg .

Cdf of Y =

Fly ) =
P{ YET } , YER ,

YZO

f? ÷
% ¥
/? 74
-

Fly ) =
e- at = -
e =
, - e-

calf of Y :

{
0 if y < o
Fly ) =
""
1- e- if Y Zo

ca , p [Y > 6 } =
I -
P{ YES }
= I -
F (6)

?
= I -
(i -
e
-

%) =
e- =

&
(b) PLYEI } =
f- (1) =
I - e- =

fj ;é¥dy
If random variables ✗ and Y are
independent

P=[ ✗ ex
.
Yes } =
P[ ✗ ex } P[ T.cz }
=

{✗ ± x
} n { Yes ] =
Fxcxs Fuels )
q 9
independent event

F'¥5 ¥5 ¥-44
✗

0 I 2

Ex . 3.14 Random Variables 0 % 728 ÷

y
l %, shy 0

✗ = # of blue pens 2 Is 0 0

Y = # of red pens

{11--0} ={✗=o,y :o) V{ × :oiy=i}v / ✗ =oiy=z }

"

P{ ✗ =o
} = 2- P / ✗ =o . Y= y }
y :O

c?YqC
Plx :O .y :o) =

Joint point fxycx.gl =P { ✗ = sc ,

Y =L }

C? C } ?

=/
C - exes, if ✗ =
0.1.2 , Y =
0.1.2 01×+4<-2
,

c:

0 else
The marginal print of ✗ :

(
5114 if
fact
✗
= ✗ =o

1512g if ✗ =L

312g if ✗ = 2

0 else

The marginal print of Y :

5/28 pfY=0 }

{
'
fyts ) :
if 1=0

317 if Y=l =
p{ ✗ =O , 4=0 }
'
128 if y=z + P {✗ =\ i 4=0 }
0 else 1- p{ ✗ =2
,
4=0 }

3g +
% +
Ig =
¥8

P[ ✗ =L ,
4=0 } = P{ ✗ =
i } P{Y=o }

"
912g f- 1512g .
128

{4--1} and [ 4=03 →

q do Ii

P[ of ✗ £1
,
is 4£23

÷ Is
=
+
F. +

=
%
 Fxylxiy ) =
P { ✗ ± "
. YET } =L ? f) f- ✗ you ,u , dudu
ha ' "°

f.If ?f×y ix. y ) dxdy

=P {✗ ex .
Yes }

=
q

Ex 3.15

The joint pdf of ✗ and Y

+41×111=4
f- ÷ (2×+39) ,
0 EX £1 , 0 EYE I

, elsewhere

a) fxylx.gl is a valid joint pdf because

cis f- ✗ y IX. y ) z o it ✗ ER ,
YER

f. Jj E. (2×+34) d✗dY
"" '

=
f :[ 3=1×2+3×2 ) / f) dy % =
25-11+34 ) dy

=
2,19+3-251/10 =
3-(1+3) =

/ :}
b'
p o< ✗ < ÷ , ¥< Ys

fy? /
=
"
"
25-12×+3×1 dxdy =
. . . = ÷o
0
Ex 3.17

:|
if
_
0L ✗ < I
,

fxixi
The pdf
→ 0 else
marginal of ✗ :
,

For 0< ✗ < I

Jgn ada ynya

→
f-✗ IN =

§ 25-(2×+34) dy =
Zgfzxy + & y
'
/ b)

=
3=(2×+3-2)

4Xg+3-
=

a fxlx)
check :

Jj 4,1-3-1 d× ¥
a-
-
•

3g -

✗
=
= I I p >
. .
ok
E
.

The marginal pdf of y :

For o< y < 1

a
fyl't)
fyl 't ) =

% 25-(2×+34) dx =

3=1×3+3×+4 ) /
"

o
÷ -

=
F- (1+34)
E-
-

p >

{
f- ycy ) = F- (1+34) ,
if 0<+41 o
p
y

, else
,
Ex 3.19 Y
^

The joint pdf of ✗ and Y

✗ + y
1 - - - - - -

¥
{
fxycx.LI
'
= 10 ✗ y if o< ✗ eye ,

p >
°
else ✗
o p

ftp.T/oxy2dxdy
✗
o
Salah