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IND IA

Covid-19: India crisis reveals

complacency and lack of foresight,
Raghuram Rajan Says
Bloomberg / Updated: May 4, 2021, 11:31 IST

Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan.

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NEW DELHI: India’s overwhelming surge of
coronavirus infections has revealed
complacency after last year’s first wave, as well
as a “lack of foresight, a lack of leadership,”
according to Raghuram Rajan, former governor
of the country’s central bank.
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“If you were careful, if you were cautious, you

had to recognize that it wasn’t done yet,” Rajan
said Tuesday in a Bloomberg Television
interview with Kathleen Hays. “Anybody paying
attention to what was happening in the rest of
the world, in Brazil for example, should have
recognized the virus does come back and
potentially in more virulent forms.”
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India is suffering the world’s worst outbreak of

Covid-19 cases, with deaths hitting a record
Sunday and new cases above 350,000 daily.
Pressure is building on Prime Minister
Narendra Modi to impose strict lockdowns to
stem its spread, a move his government has so
far avoided after the economic devastation last
year from a similar strategy.

Daily New Cases in India

All ▾
All Mar 7, 2020 → May 8, 2021

400k

300k

200k

100k

0
May 01 Sep 01 Jan 01 May 01

Actual Data 5-day Moving Average

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After a drop in cases last year, “there was a

sense that we had endured the worst the virus
could give us and we had come through and it
was time to open up, and that complacency
hurt us,” said Rajan, a former International
Monetary Fund chief economist and now a
professor of finance at University of Chicago.

India’s relative success against the first wave of

infections also likely led to it not swiftly
preparing enough vaccines for its own
population, he said. “Some of that may be the
sense that we had time. That since we had
dealt with the virus we could roll out the
vaccination slowly,” he said, adding that the
government is now “getting its act together”
and in “emergency mode.”

Rajan, appointed by the previous government

in 2013 to lead Reserve Bank of India, became
an outspoken critic of Modi’s administration
after it took office during his tenure,
spotlighting growing intolerance within the
country as well as differing on the issue of RBI
dividends and interest rates. Hindu nationalists,
which form a large base of Modi’s support,
questioned his allegiance to India and accused
him of keeping interest rates too high.

The RBI has been “as accommodative as

possible” to support the economy in the face of
stubborn inflationary pressures. As doubts
build over the Indian economy’s performance
going forward, the RBI’s “fairly large” foreign
exchange reserves can offer “a measure of
comfort for foreign investors.”

Meanwhile in the US, a massive fiscal stimulus

program and economic recovery may force the
Federal Reserve to “rethink” its policies of
staying on hold for the foreseeable future and
waiting for a sustained rise inflation above its
2% target.

In that event, “a financial market which has

been thinking that the Fed is not going to act
in the near future is likely to be somewhat
surprised at the first signs that that will
happen.”

While helming the RBI, Rajan had been critical

of massive quantitative easing programs,
particularly by the Fed, and warned that a lack
of international coordination amid possible
tightening would lead to market volatility,
similar to the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013.

At the moment, he said Tuesday, “it seems as if

the Fed has somewhat been overtaken by
events.”

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20 hours ago

Its always easy to sit in Chicago (US) and

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