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After decades of development by research teams in the United States and around the world, and
careful testing against observations of climate over the past century and further into the past,
scientists are confident that climate models are able to capture many important aspects of the climate
system. Inducing behaviour change is difficult for numerous reasons. These decisions would similarly
benefit from integrated analyses or linked “end-to-end” models ( Theme 7 ) of how policies and
other actions influence emissions, how the climate system and related environmental systems will
respond to these changes in emissions, and how human and natural systems will be affected by all of
these changes—all of which again depend critically on observations ( Theme 6 ). In contrast to
benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis compares costs of actions to predefined objectives,
without assigning a monetary value to those objectives. Overall, ocean acidification has the potential
to alter marine ecosystems catastrophically, but the details and consequences of these impacts are
only beginning to be understood (see also NRC, 2010f). Social proof occurs when the majority of
people in that community are perceived to be behaving according to those social norms). Research on
improved designs of these and other types of monitoring and control equipment could help reduce
energy use by helping users operate homes, motor vehicles, and commercial and industrial facilities
more efficiently. Observed changes in stream flow reflect both natural variability in hydrology as
well as the aggregate effects of many human influences, of which climate change is only one.
However given the enormity of the problem, we contend that governmental leadership is crucial to
accelerate the process of adaptation at all levels. RECCA and S-8 will make presentations on their
leading-edge research achievements in Japan. Some of the largest risks associated with climate
change are associated with the potential for abrupt changes or other climate “surprises” (see Chapters
3 and 6 ). To make decisions about climate change, a basic understanding of the processes of climate
change and of how to evaluate the associated risks and potential benefits would be helpful for most
audiences. Science and technology advances are therefore needed to respond to many questions.
Most fisheries are also subject to other stressors, such as increasing levels of pollution, and the
interactions of these other stresses should be analyzed and incorporated into models. Based on
feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read
thousands of publications on our website. Such protection provided the butterflies several options for
adjusting naturally to climate change. Adaptation involves making adjustments in our decisions,
activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate, with the goals of
moderating harm or taking advantage of new opportunities (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001b). Through this organisational clarification, those strategies and tactics more likely to
be effective interventions can be identified and targeted. Initially an innovative world leader, the
2013 change in Australian government resulted in diametrically opposed priorities, and a reversal of
progress. The argument against the robustness of the long-range connectivity involves possible
oversensitivity of the climate models that have been used in the studies and the statistical significance
of the results. The framework we present here, also funded through that NCCARN scheme, is a
preparatory phase for a project designed to identify heat health threats, to project future health
burdens, and to identify adaptation options. Many of these factors have been characterized in the
scientific literature (see Chapter 14 ), and while research has shed some light on ways to overcome
these barriers, more work is needed. This applies to efforts to boost health resilience to climate
change. For example, the human-caused increase in CO 2 since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution is associated with a warming effect equivalent to approximately 1.6 Watts of energy per
square meter of the Earth’s surface ( Figure 2.4 ). Although this may seem like a small amount of
energy, when multiplied by the surface area of the Earth it is 50 times larger than the total power
consumed by all human activities. In the nearest term possible, aging space- and ground-based
environmental sensors must be replaced with technologically improved instruments. Although few, if
any, voices are promoting SRM as a near-term alternative to GHG emissions-reduction strategies, the
concept has recently been gaining more serious attention as a possible “backstop” measure, because
strategies attempted to date have failed to yield significant emissions reductions, and climate trends
may become significantly disruptive or dangerous. The NRC report Informing Decisions in a
Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) recommends that the federal government “expand and maintain
national observation systems to provide information needed for climate decision support. One option
is to strengthen the natural ability of ecosystems to withstand or recover from (or be resilient to)
pressures, or to adjust to new environmental conditions. For further details see Figure 15.1.
SOURCE: Lenton and Vaughn (2009). The concept of human security, however, goes far beyond the
traditional concerns of national security and conflict and instead includes considerations of access to
sufficient food, water, and health care infrastructure, as well as freedom from repression and
freedom and capacity to determine one’s life path.
We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning
methods will enhance governments’ capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation.
Projections are made for the future using IPCC projections of atmospheric concentrations of CO 2.
The CO 2 emitted by these activities constitutes a significant portion of total U.S. GHG emissions.
Considerable research has focused on the role of the energy sector in emissions of GHGs and on the
development of technologies and strategies that could result in increased energy efficiency as well as
energy sources that release fewer or no GHGs. The proportion of precipitation that falls as rain rather
than snow has increased across the western United States and Arctic sea ice has been reduced
significantly. Influence can be achieved directly through legislation and regulation, or indirectly via
information and social marketing campaigns. Field studies have shown that cultivation of seagrasses
can increase carbon uptake by the plants through photosynthesis, thereby reducing acidity, c while
chemical remediation can reduce acidity through the introduction of chemicals such as calcium
carbonate or sodium hydroxide that neutralize carbonic acid (the acid formed through the interaction
of carbon dioxide and water). Understanding this link is especially challenging for those atmospheric
species that are produced in the atmosphere by chemical reactions of precursor species, have short
atmospheric lifetimes, or have a multitude of sources. Innovative algorithms for simulating aerosol
microphysics are needed, such as the method of moments (McGraw, 1997) or new sectional
approaches (Adams et al., 2003). Better understanding is also needed of the fundamental processes
driving aerosol microphysics, particularly nucleation. There are similar opportunities for improved
energy efficiency through behavioral change. Since the forcings and responses that determine any
one particular climate state involve a distribution about a mean, the ensemble must be properly
characterized and quantified so that changes in the mean can be identified reliably. At the current
rate of greenhouse gas emissions, human society is following a pathway towards a catastrophic
future. These measurements, which include satellite, aircraft, and in situ observations, need. These
models are based on numerical representations of fundamental Earth system processes, such as the
exchange of energy, moisture, and materials between the atmosphere and the underlying ocean or
land surface. Whereas we examined the difference of extreme snowfall between present and future
climates (Fig. 2). The results showed that some region has an increasing variation of the extreme
snowfall event although the temperature rise. In order to more avert and mitigate the disaster
pertinent to climate change, we wish that an increasing number of people could be interested in the
studies of our Atmospheric Science Laboratory. Very little information exists for spectrally resolved
imaginary refractive indices in the visible spectrum. Improved data assimilation techniques have also
led to improved data sets for analyses of climate change. As noted in Chapters 2 and 6, some of
these feedbacks have the potential to dramatically accelerate global warming (e.g., the possibility
that the current warming of permafrost in high-latitude regions will lead to melting of frozen soils
and release huge amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 into the atmosphere). However, our analysis suggests
that the most crucial research needs of the coming decades can be captured in seven crosscutting
research themes, whether one is interested in sea level rise, agriculture, human health, national
security, or other topics of concern. These indirect methods suggest that there was a slight increase in
solar energy received by the Earth during the first few decades of the 20th century, which may have
contributed to the global temperature increase during that period (see Figure 2.2 ). Perhaps the most
dramatic example of natural climate variability is the ice age cycle. This body of research can provide
important guidance for shaping effective responses to climate change at local and regional levels.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH). Additional research is
needed to determine how these management strategies could be implemented more widely, what the
costs and safety issues would be, and what interactions these approaches may have with other
aspects of the ecosystems, including how well they cope with other stressors. d. Climate change
affects this maintenance, with potentially significant societal consequences. The North American
Carbon Program (NACP) outlines a strategy for doing so, involving in particular the use of aircraft
observations to scale up the tower flux observations and providing a linkage to the global
observation network (Wofsy and Harriss, 2002; Denning et al., 2003). Benefit-cost analysis is a
common method for making trade-offs across outcomes and thus linking modeling to the decision-
support systems (see Chapter 17 ). An element in the social behaviour cell (social norms) can be
identified and assessed, across domains and across levels. Some guidelines for such interactions are
contained in recent. The amount and cost of adaptation required are a direct function of the rate and
magnitude of climate change. In particular, measurements of GHG concentrations and emissions are
needed to inform national and international policy aimed at regulating emissions, to verify
compliance with emissions-reduction policies, and to ascertain their effectiveness.
A list of some of the specific research needs within this crosscutting theme is included in Table 4.1,
and the subsections below and the chapters of Part II include additional discussion of these topics.
Efforts to account for the full set of environmental impacts of a product, from production of raw
materials through manufacture and use to its eventual disposition, are referred to as life-cycle
analysis (LCA). Readers interested in additional information should consult the extensive assessment
reports completed by the USGCRP, 2 the IPCC, 3 the National Research Council (NRC), 4 and
other groups, as well as the numerous scientific papers that have been published since their
completion. Yet there is still debate about the frequency of occurrence and intensity of clouds and
precipitation resulting from such circulations, and their impact on the radiation balance (Weaver and
Avissar, 2001; Doran and Zhong, 2002). We pull together elements from the described methods to
arrive at a conceptual model to assist policy makers and governments with adaptation planning.
Large volcanic eruptions, such as the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, can spew copious
amounts of aerosols into the upper atmosphere. Benefit-cost analysis defines each outcome as either
a benefit or a cost, assigns a value to each of the projected outcomes, weights them by the degree of
certainty associated with the projection of outcomes, and discounts outcomes that occur in the
future. Livestock respond to climate change directly through heat and humidity stresses and are
affected indirectly by changes in forage quantity and quality, water availability, and disease. Over
the past 60 years, direct ground-based measurements have been supplemented by airborne in situ
measurements, from both aircraft and balloons, and by ground-based, remotely sensed data, such as
weather radars and vertical profilers of atmospheric composition. For example, many of the
conclusions and research recommendations in Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (NRC,
2003b) and Radiative Forcing of Climate Change (NRC, 2005d), such as those highlighted in the
following two paragraphs, remain highly relevant today. It is likely that details of stratospheric
dynamics and chemistry, ocean circulation, vegetation and soil dynamics, and mechanisms of land-
ocean-atmosphere coupling are all important in describing past regional-scale changes in climate.
European Journal of Investigation in Health, Psychology and Education (EJIHPE). The development
of common metrics and frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation assessments is needed to assist
cross-sectoral and interregional comparison and learning. The strong warming observed across the
Arctic is already leading to poleward shifts of boreal forests into regions formerly covered in tundra,
and these shifts are expected to continue. Improved regional projections of changes in precipitation,
soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater availability on seasonal to multidecadal time scales are
needed to inform water management and planning decisions, especially decisions related to long-
term infrastructure investments. This hysteresis effect is not well characterized in the laboratory or in
the field, yet it plays a critical role in particle optical properties. Cold-water species such as trout and
salmon appear particularly sensitive. A national program could prioritize these needs and also. Needs
for fundamental science and technology advances include: improved informa-. Researchers hope to
avoid a gap in the satellite record because measurements from tide gauges and other satellite
measurements would not be sufficient to accurately determine the bias between the two time series
on either side of the gap. Application of the Framework requires a phase of background investigation
in order to appropriately populate the cells with relevant elements. We collaborate closely with other
relevant research projects to enrich the climate change impact and adaptation information. There is at
present no direct measurement of tropospheric ozone from space. These experimental strategies may
indeed yield more decision-relevant information, but, given the importance of local- and regional-
scale information for planning responses to climate change, continued and expanded investments in
regional climate modeling remain a particularly pressing priority. Enhanced integrated assessment
capability, including improved representation of diverse elements of the coupled human-environment
system in integrated assessment models, promises benefits across a wide range of scientific fields as
well as for supporting decision making. While this understanding has improved markedly over the
past several decades, a number of key uncertainties remain. The complexity and novelty of the
responses required to tackle the unfolding crisis, superimposed on the high level of urgency, act as a
brake on action. In addition, a set of fully integrated models capable of analyzing policies that unfold
sequentially, while taking account of uncertainty, could inform policy design and processes of
societal and political judgment, including judgments of acceptable risk. This approach has been
extended by Nenes and Seinfeld (2003) to include kinetic effects, that is, considering that the largest
aerosols do not have time to grow to their equilibrium size. The top photos were taken around 1940,
and the bottom photos show the glacier six decades later.