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This combination of satellite and in situ data will enable us to address fundamental issues, including
the global distribution of black carbon; regional statistics of aerosol number concentration,
composition, CCN, and cloud drop distribution; and global distribution of aerosol forcing at the
surface and the TOA. IAV assessments can aid in vulnerability and adaptation assessments of the
sort described in Theme 3 above. An inability to meet public expectations would compromise the.
Whereas emphasis to date has been on how these climate forcings affect global mean temperature,
the report finds that regional variation and climate impacts other than temperature deserve increased
attention. FIGURE Observed precipitation trends from 1950 to 1999. U.S. economy illustrates the
importance of research to better understand. Agricultural or marine extension services, with all their
strengths and weaknesses, are an important historical example of a decision-support system that has
helped make scientific knowledge relevant to and available for practical decision making in the
context of specific goals. Experimental studies that evaluate the interactions of multiple factors are
needed, especially in ecosystem-scale experiments and in environments where temperature is already
close to optimal for crops. Changes in the large-scale meridional overturning circulation could also
have a significant impact on regional and global climate and could potentially lead to abrupt changes
(Alley et al., 2003; NRC, 2002a). The relative scarcity of ocean observations, especially in the ocean
interior, makes these factors among the more uncertain aspects of future climate projections. In the
following sections, the seven integrative, crosscutting research themes identified by the panel are
discussed in detail. Tools are also needed to translate the data and model output into. However,
assimilation techniques also have fundamental limita-. Because these measurements are relatively
routine but very time-consuming, there has been little interest in the research community in collecting
the required database of optical properties. Some of the largest risks associated with climate change
are associated with the potential for abrupt changes or other climate “surprises” (see Chapters 3 and
6 ). Such an enterprise would continue to improve our understanding of the causes, consequences,
and complexities of climate change from an integrated perspective that considers both human
systems and the Earth system. There is considerable uncertainty about—and considerable risk
associated with—the sensitivity of fish species to ocean acidification. Thus, while the following
subsections describe a number of key research needs related to limiting the magnitude of future
climate change, progress in many other research areas will also be needed. A number of recent
scientific analyses (Leiserowitz, 2007; Maibach et al., 2010; Moser and Tribbia, 2006, 2007; Wilson,
2002; see also NRC, 2010b) have identified some of the comprehension challenges
people—including both the general public and trained professional in some fields—face in making
decisions about how to respond to climate change. Beyond replacing aging instruments, there is a
need to enhance continuity in the observations, so that policy makers, informed by science, will have
the necessary tools to detect trends in important Earth indicators and craft wise and effective long-
term policies. Many of these needs have also been articulated, often in greater detail, in a range of
recent reports by the USGCRP, the National Research Council, federal agencies, and other groups.
Scenarios are critical for helping decision makers establish targets or budgets for future GHG
emissions and devise plans to adapt to the projected impacts of climate change in the context of
changes in other human and environmental systems. Scenario development is an inherently
interdisciplinary and integrative activity requiring contributions from many different scientific fields
as well as processes that link scientific analysis with decision making. Continued investments in
scientific research can be expected to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of
climate change. Successful application of seasonal climate forecasting tends to follow a systems
approach where forecasts are contextualized to the decision situation and embedded within an array
of other information relevant for risk management. There is currently little standardization of these
databases or of methods for drawing boundaries and allocating impacts. In addition to assessing the
feasibility, costs, and potential consequences of different options and objectives, research is critical
for developing new and improving existing technologies, policies, goals, and strategies for reducing
GHG emissions. In general, vulnerability analyses assess exposure to and impacts from a
disturbance, as well as sensitivity to these impacts and the capacity to reduce or adapt to the negative
consequences of the disturbance. There is evidence that too much investment in climate forecasting
may crowd out more sustainable alternatives to manage risk or even harm some stakeholders (Lemos
and Dilling, 2007). A synergistic approach combining state-of-the-art models, field observations, and
satellite imagery will be needed to advance our knowledge. Numerous decisions about climate
change, including setting emissions targets and developing and implementing adaptation plans, rest
on understanding how the Earth system will respond to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other
climate forcings. Its distribution in the atmosphere is thus highly variable, in contrast to the long-
lived greenhouse gases.
Changes in biogeochemical processes and biodiversity (including changes in reflectance
characteristics due to land use changes) also have the potential to feed back on the climate system on
a variety of time scales. This should include attention to the extended effect of urban areas on other
areas (such as deposition of urban emissions on ocean and rural land surfaces) as well as interactions
between urban and regional heat islands and urban vegetation-evapotranspiration feedbacks to
climate. These experimental strategies may indeed yield more decision-relevant information, but,
given the importance of local- and regional-scale information for planning responses to climate
change, continued and expanded investments in regional climate modeling remain a particularly
pressing priority. A substantial shift to corn-based ethanol (or other biofuels) could also lead to
significant land use changes and changes in food prices. For example, Nelson et al. (2009) used
ecosystem models to determine the potential for policies aimed at increasing carbon sequestration to
also aid in species conservation. SOURCE: Courtesy of Colorado Center for Astrodynamics
Research, University of Colorado at Boulder ( ). One lesson from the existing literature is worth
highlighting—the earlier in the process of technological development that social acceptance is
considered, the more likely it is that technologies will be developed that will actually be used (Rosa
and Clark, 1999). For example, economic analyses often take preferences as given. A wide range of
relevant theories and concepts have been advanced in various branches of psychology, sociology, and
anthropology, as well as the political, pedagogic, and decision sciences (among others), but these
have yet to be more fully synthesized and applied to climate change (Moser, 2010). Meeting this
expanded set of research requirements will require changes in the way climate change research is
supported, organized, and conducted. Better datasets from more accurate and more frequent satellite
observations are essential for the initialization and evaluation of global models. However, our
analysis suggests that the most crucial research needs of the coming decades can be captured in
seven crosscutting research themes, whether one is interested in sea level rise, agriculture, human
health, national security, or other topics of concern. An integrated Earth system analysis capability, or
the ability to create an accurate, internally consistent, synthesized description of the evolving Earth
system, is a key research need identified both in this report and in many previous reports (NRC,
2009k). Institutional design would likely be enhanced by more systematic research to evaluate past
and current efforts, compare different institutional approaches for reaching the same goals, and
develop and pilot-test new institutional options. White, 2006), primarily as a result of expansion of
warming sea-. There is also increasing interest in solar radiation management and other
geoengineering approaches (see Chapters 9, 14, and 15 ). These experimental strategies may indeed
yield more decision-relevant information, but, given the importance of local- and regional-scale
information for planning responses to climate change, continued and expanded investments in
regional climate modeling remain a particularly pressing priority. More compelling, however, is the
categorization offered by Stokes (1997), who argues that two questions should be asked of a
research topic: Does it contribute to fundamental understanding. While scientific research alone
cannot determine what actions should be taken in response to climate change, it can inform, assist,
and support those who must make these important decisions. This section outlines some of the key
areas of fundamental research on human behavior and institutions that need to be developed to
support better understanding of human interactions with the climate system and provide a scientific
basis for informing more effective responses to climate change. Furthermore, when statements are
made, the authors should indicate whether the claim is based on rigorous statistical analysis of a
particular dataset (or datasets), expert elicitation, or the informed judgments of the authors. 5. The
levels of uncertainty inherent in the trends should be discussed in more detail. IAV assessments can
aid in vulnerability and adaptation assessments of the sort described in Theme 3 above. Continued
and improved observations, field campaigns, process studies, and experiments with smaller-domain,
high-resolution models are needed to improve scientific understanding of cloud and aerosol
processes, and improved parameterizations will be needed to incorporate this improved
understanding into global climate models. Atlantic temperatures are emerging as the dominant
factors. Greenhouse. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) TransCom activity
( ) has provided a forum for standardizing and comparing these inverse model analyses, but model
transport errors ultimately limit their ability to exploit the relatively sparse surface air observations in
terms of regionally resolved source and sink constraints (Gurney et al., 2002). A better understanding
of the dependence of ocean heat uptake on vertical mixing and the abrupt changes in polar
reflectivity that follow the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic are some of the most critical
improvements needed in ocean and Earth system models. The breadth of information needed to
support climate-related decision making implies an observational strategy that includes both remotely
sensed and in situ observations and that provides information about changes across a broad range of
natural and human systems. To be useful, these observations must be. Successful application of
seasonal climate forecasting tends to follow a systems approach where forecasts are contextualized
to the decision situation and embedded within an array of other information relevant for risk
management. This significant discrepancy motivates detailed scrutiny of all past and current
radiometric observations so as to better identify and quantify sources of uncertainty in future
measurements. Thus, while it seems clear that the Earth’s future climate will be unlike the climate that
ecosystems and human societies have become accustomed to during the last 10,000 years, the exact
magnitude of future climate change and the nature of its impacts will always remain somewhat
uncertain.
These seven crosscutting themes are not intended to represent a comprehensive or exclusive list of
research needs, nor do the numbers indicate priority order. The underlying model is simple enough to
be used in real time by policy makers to ask “what if” questions that can inform negotiations. This
hysteresis effect is not well characterized in the laboratory or in the field, yet it plays a critical role in
particle optical properties. The risks associated with climate change have motivated many decision
makers to begin to take or plan actions to limit climate change or adapt to its impacts. Given that
these systems are intrinsically coupled on climate time scales, for instance through exchanges of
water and energy, coupled data assimilation methodologies are needed to take into account their
interactions. The engagement of institutions at all levels and of all sorts—academic, governmental,
private-sector, and not-for-profit—will be needed to meet the challenges of climate change. If
emissions continue to,.-, rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near
the upper end of the range. While this understanding has improved markedly over the past several
decades, a number of key uncertainties remain. It also notes the need for geocoding existing social
and environmental databases; developing methods for aggregating, disaggregating, and integrating
such data sets with each other and with climate and other Earth system data; creating new databases
to fill critical gaps; supporting modeling and process studies to improve methods for making the data
useful; and engaging decision makers in the identification of critical data needs. Of particular
concern are water resources for agriculture, which are influenced at regional scales by competition
from other uses as well as by changing frequency and intensity of rainfall. Performance standards are
frequently set and monitored by third-party certifiers, and the “label” is typically the indicator of
compliance with the standards of the system. To make decisions about climate change, a basic
understanding of the processes of climate change and of how to evaluate the associated risks and
potential benefits would be helpful for most audiences. This summary follows the structure of the
longer report, which addresses the following topics: Observed changes and their causes; Future
climate change, risks and impacts; Future pathways for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable
development; Adaptation and mitigation. Scientists have learned a great deal over the past 50 years
about the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere and the effects of these
changes on temperature and other climate change (CCSP, 2007a). These products may include
models and simulations, mapping and visualization products, websites, and applications of
techniques for structuring decisions, such as cost-benefit analysis, multiattribute decision analysis,
and scenario analysis. The research should also link physical vulnerability with economic. LCA may
also identify multiple environmental impacts. Then, by comparing the ratio of benefits to costs (or
using a similar metric), benefit-cost analysis allows for comparisons across alternative decisions,
including across different policy options. Without models that account for such interactions and
feedbacks among all important aspects of the Earth system and related human systems, it is difficult
to fully evaluate the costs, benefits, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with different courses of
action that might be taken to respond to climate change (the next subsection describes modeling
approaches that address some of these considerations). Some examples include advanced models for
analysis and projections of climate forcing, responses, and impacts, especially at regional scales; and
integrated assessment models and approaches—both quantitative and nonquantitative—for
evaluating the. For example, research focused on improving responses to climate change will clearly
benefit from increased understanding of both human systems and the Earth system, and advances in
observations, models, and scientific understanding often go hand in hand. In addition to directly
supporting research on the Earth system and specific decision-making needs, these observations are
critical for calibrating and validating satellite measurements and for developing and testing climate
and Earth system model parameterizations. Radiative forcings can thus be assessed with confidence.
Designing effective agricultural strategies for limiting and adapting to climate change will require
models and analyses that reflect these complicated interactions and that also incorporate the response
of farmers and markets not only to production and prices but to policies and institutions (see Themes
3, 4, and 7 below). However, improving our understanding of the flexibility and efficacy of current
institutions and integrating this body of knowledge with existing work on international treaties,
national policies, and other governance regimes remains a significant research challenge. Under
virtually all scenarios of projected future climate change, coastal areas face increased risks to their
transportation and port systems, real estate, fishing, tourism, small businesses, power generating and
supply systems, other critical infrastructure (such as hospitals, schools, and police and fire stations),
and countless managed and natural ecosystems. This is the time period with the greatest change in
well-mixed greenhouse gases as well as the most complete observational datasets. The interim report
of the decadal survey (NRC, 2005b) described the national system of environmental satellites as
being “at risk of collapse.” That judgment was based on a sharp decline in funding for Earth
observation missions and the consequent cancellation, descoping, and delay of a number of critical
satellite missions and instruments. Efforts to account for the full set of environmental impacts of a
product, from production of raw materials through manufacture and use to its eventual disposition,
are referred to as life-cycle analysis (LCA). The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors,
ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate
change.