Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144

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Journal of Transport Geography

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jtrangeo

Decoupling transport from economic growth: Extending the debate to

include environmental and social externalities
Becky P.Y. Loo a,⁎, David Banister b
a
Department of Geography, The Jockey Club Tower, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
b
School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The concept of decoupling embraces both immaterialisation and dematerialisation, by referring to the general
Received 11 November 2015 delinking of environmental harm from economic production. This paper extends the theoretical debate and
Received in revised form 11 October 2016 methodology on decoupling in transport to cover environmental (e.g. carbon) and social (e.g. fatalities) issues
Accepted 19 October 2016
as well as the economic dimensions (e.g. income growth and transport activities). The typology developed
Available online 28 October 2016
here details the concepts of absolute and relative decoupling in a strong and weak version. This typology is
Keywords:
then applied to explore the potential and the reality of transport decoupling in 15 major countries over the period
Decoupling since 1990, when concerns over the global environment and social issues have become a central part of the sus-
Economic growth tainable development agenda, through the measurement of changes in all three of the elements of sustainable
Transport development (economic, environmental and social). Two key transport externalities, carbon dioxide emissions
Decarbonisation and traffic fatalities, are studied, as these represent examples of environmental and social costs associated with
Traffic fatalities increased levels of mobility. These 15 key countries included both developed and developing countries, and
they together account for the majority of the global economy, carbon emissions and a substantial proportion of
transport fatalities. The results show that decarbonisation of the transport sector has proved more difficult to
achieve in the 15 countries over the 22 years than the reduction in the levels of transport-related fatalities. Nev-
ertheless, there is progress being made. Decoupling has taken place in both developed and developing countries,
though the experiences vary in terms of timing (earlier vs more recent), consistency (stable vs variable), form
(absolute vs relative) and magnitude (strong vs weak). Recoupling effects are limited. Transport has proved to
be the most difficult sector to make more sustainable, as it is growing so fast and as it is necessary to support
economies and lifestyles. Yet through combining measures of economic (e.g. income), environmental (e.g. car-
bon) and social (e.g. fatalities) wellbeing, it has been possible to identify positive trends in decoupling transport
at the national level, as measured through relative decoupling. The much harder objective of an absolute
decoupling is only just beginning to take place, but this must be seen as the primary objective in moving towards
sustainability in the transport sector.
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
This paper extends the decoupling debate in the literature to exam-
ine the general relationship between transport, economic growth and
environmental and social externalities. Two key transport externalities,
carbon dioxide emissions and traffic fatalities, are studied as illustrative
examples because they represent major and quantifiable forms of envi-
ronmental and social costs associated with increased levels of mobility.
Transport provides an interesting focus for this study because transport
activities tend to increase as the economy grows, not only because of
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: bpyloo@hku.hk (B.P.Y. Loo), david.banister@ouce.ox.ac.uk
(D. Banister).
more economic activities but also because of more cultural, political, so-
cial, and other forms of human interactions. For example, based on a
panel data from 1963 to 1999 for 88 countries, Kopits and Cropper
(2005: 169) have remarked that most death rates decline as countries
develop, but deaths due to traffic crashes are “a notable exception”. Mo-
torization (growth in vehicle usage) has tended to be strongly and pos-
itively correlated with economic growth in all countries, particularly
those in a rapid state of development (Kutzbach, 2009). In addition, in-
dustrialization, particularly export-oriented industrialization, leads to
the rapid growth of goods vehicles and in the distances travelled.
These trends, in turn, greatly increase not just the total road traffic vol-
ume but also the mix of traffic and risk profiles of different road users
(Paulozzi et al., 2007). The associated increases in energy consumption,
CO2 emissions, traffic crashes and other negative transport externalities
(notably land consumption, local air pollution, noise, barrier effects,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.10.006
0966-6923/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144
intrusion on outdoor recreation areas, and loss of cultural heritage) can
lead to environmental degradation and a lower quality of life.
In recent decades, the scale and speed of the increase of transport ex-
ternalities in many developing countries are unprecedented. In China,
the total vehicle fleet (including automobiles and motorcycles) rose
from 0.4 million in 1970, 2.0 million in 1980, 9.7 million in 1990, 53.8
million in 2000 to 154.2 million in 2008 (Loo et al., 2011). In 2013,
there were 22 million new automobiles sold in China, making it the larg-
est global market (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,
2014). Using the distance-based method, the average CO2 emissions in
China from passenger transport alone have risen 23.8 times from
14 million tons (Mt) in 1980 to 333 Mt in 2009 (Loo and Li, 2012).
Since 2008, China has become the largest CO2 emitter (EIA, 2015). Simi-
larly, road safety problems in developing countries are serious. In China
alone, the number of 30-day adjusted number of road traffic fatalities in-
creased from 49,243 in 1990 to 93,853 in 2000 before reducing to 58,539
in 2013 (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2013). Yet, the huge and
rapid increase in these negative transport externalities over the past
few decades have also been associated with rapid economic growth. In
China, its Gross National Income at purchasing power parity in current
International dollars (GNIPPP) has risen by about 14 times from 1095 bil-
lion in 1990 to 16,084 billion in 2013 (World Bank, 2015). The key ques-
tion here is about what can be done in developing countries to minimize
negative transport externalities, as their governments strive to develop
the national economies and to improve the quality of life of people. It is
not acceptable to policy-makers in any developing country (as defined
and updated by the UN, 2015) to cut negative transport externalities
through reducing economic growth. Putting the blame on developing
countries for causing huge increases in world total CO2 emissions, traffic
fatalities and other negative transport externalities is problematic from
two perspectives. Firstly, many developed countries have undergone a
similar path of rapidly worsening environment and road safety problems,
as they have developed historically (Kopits and Cropper, 2005; Paulozzi
et al., 2007). Secondly, despite the huge increase of CO2 emission in
developing countries, the CO2 emission per capita is still generally
much lower than in many developed countries. In 2010, the CO2
emission per capita in China (6.2 metric tons per capita) was still
lower than the UK (7.9 metric tons per capita) and the USA
(17.6 metric tons per capita) (World Bank, 2015). Whether the situ-
ation will dramatically change or even reverse in the future depends
on the commitments and measures adopted in developed countries
to combat CO2 emissions, and the levels of increase in CO2 emissions
expected in developing countries.
In his seminal work, Haight (1985) summarizes eight aspects that
have improved our theoretical understanding of road safety. At the
top of his list was “abandoning the language of cause and blame”. In par-
ticular, taxonomies based on the concept of “identifying the culprits” fail
to recognize the complexity of the problem and can lead to a mistaken
focus on countermeasures targeted at one agent (e.g. drivers) of the sys-
tem only. In this paper we do the same and look for new solutions
through the development of a general typology for the understanding
of the links between transport, economic growth and a selection of ex-
ternalities. We aim to identify situations where there is good practice in
achieving the sustainability goal of raising economic growth with a min-
imum negative impact on the environment and society. Section 2 places
this research within the broader literature of decoupling between trans-
port and economic growth, including the environmental and social im-
pacts. To this end, transport-related CO2 emissions and road fatalities
are taken as major and measurable examples to extend the framework
to cover the impact of the wider transport externalities on society.
Section 3 describes the data and methods used to provide an overview
of the existing situation, and it describes trends and demonstrates the
workings of the typology. Section 4 highlights the key findings from
the application of the typology, and it identifies successful decoupling
experiences, in both developed and developing countries over the re-
cent past. Section 5 concludes this paper.
135
2. Literature review and the decoupling typology
The concept of decoupling transport from economic growth has be-
come popular, as growth in the economy is seen as desirable but it
should not be contingent on similar growth in the use of carbon based
transport. Immaterialisation describes the decoupling of both material
production and consumption from economic production (Tapio,
2002). At the national level, aggregate economic production can be
measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or GNIPPP. It is also referred
as national income or simply income in this paper, which is different
from the concept of individual or household income at the disaggregate
level. Immaterialisation can be measured by using indicators such as en-
ergy intensity (total primary energy supply/GDP) or transport intensity
(transport volume/GDP). In other words, all measurements (including
income) are made at the aggregate national level. The same phenomenon
has also been labelled as qualitative economic growth, amaterialisation
(Heinonen et al., 2005), post-industrialism (Bell, 1974) and ecological
structural change.
Dematerialisation refers to the decoupling of the specified envi-
ronmental harm from material production (Ausubel, 1995; de
Bruyn, 2002). The same phenomenon has also been called increasing
eco-efficiency. It may consist of technical development (Simon,
1980) and/or shifts within the sector observed, for example fuel
switching or changes in the traffic modal split (Kaivo-oja and
Luukkanen, 2002). Dematerialisation can be measured, by changes
in the carbon intensity of energy production (total CO2 emissions /
TPES) or by changes in the carbon intensity of transport (transport
CO2 emissions / transport volume).
The concept of decoupling embraces both immaterialisation and
dematerialisation, by referring to the general delinking of environmen-
tal harm from economic production (de Bruyn, 2002; de Bruyn et al.,
1998a,b; Vehmas et al., 2003). Decarbonisation is seen as an example
of decoupling in terms of CO2 emissions, measured by changes in the
total carbon intensity of the economy (CO2/GDP) (Nakicenovic, 1996)
or by changes in the sectoral carbon intensity of the economy (transport
CO2/GDP). Alternatively, Ausubel (1995) has used the concept of
decarbonisation as an example of dematerialisation. This is the context
within which this paper has been framed, and it is now appropriate to
define the actual formulations used here.
As noted above, decoupling is the key concept that we use in this
study. It is closely associated with the income elasticity of negative
transport externalities (ei), which is given by the equation:
Δntei
ei ¼ ð1Þ
Δy
where ntei is the amount of negative transport externality i, y is income
or the value of aggregate economic production, and Δ is percentage
change. The relationship between income and transport externality i
at a given time can be given by the equation of:
ntei
ci ¼ ð2Þ
y
where ci is the intensity of negative transport externality i per income.
Whenever ci increases, a higher level of negative externality or harm
(whether environmental or social) is created for each dollar of income
generated. Hence, it is undesirable from the perspective of decoupling
transport negative externality from economic growth.
This conceptual framing will be used as a basis for the transport (sec-
toral) decoupling framework. Although there are many different rela-
tionships that can be used (some 8 feasible options in total), our
interest is in the four basic forms of decoupling and coupling. Relative
decoupling occurs when both income (y) and the negative externality
(ntei) change in the same direction but with a lower ci. In the literature,
the discussion has focused on situations where both indicators keep
136 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144
growing but the negative externality (nominator) increases at a slower
rate (Ballingall et al., 2003; Wernick et al., 1996). In other words, al-
though income and negative externality is still positively related
(change in the same direction), their relationship (ci or the ratio of the
latter to the former) has weakened (ci is reduced). Absolute decoupling
occurs when the actual value of the negative externality is decreasing as
income increases or stays at the same level (y and ntei change in differ-
ent directions) (Ballingall et al., 2003; Wernick et al., 1996). Relative
coupling is used when both income and a negative externality change
in the same direction with increasing or the same ci. Finally, absolute
coupling relates to the situation when income and the negative exter-
nality again change in different directions with the latter increasing
and the former either staying at the same level or falling. In these situa-
tions, ci inevitably increases. To distinguish the difference of an increase,
a stable or a decline in the income level, the situations may be qualified
as expansive, stationary and recessive respectively (Table 1).
Decoupling research has primarily been conducted in Europe, espe-
cially with respect to CO2 emissions. Some of the literature has focused
directly on CO2 emissions and income (Jaunky, 2011; Narayan and
Narayan, 2010), while others have focused on energy (Narayan and
Narayan, 2010; Niu et al., 2011; Wang et al., 2011) or the energy and
transport sectors (Banister and Stead, 2002; Tapio 2005; Tapio et al.,
2007). Generally, these studies emphasize tracking and evaluation, es-
pecially in relation to the Kyoto Protocol and the 1997 European
Union (EU) White Paper (Banister and Stead, 2002; Tapio, 2005a,b;
Tapio et al., 2007). So far, the evidence seems to suggest that decoupling
has not happened and the relationship has at best stabilized in Europe
up to 2000 (Tapio et al., 2007) and among the developed countries
(Jaunky, 2011). Compared with SO2 and NOX (two other major sources
of anthropogenic air pollution), CO2 was found to be the most stubborn
to decoupling in the Netherlands, UK, USA and Western Germany be-
cause of its close relationship with the increasing scale of carbon-
based transport activities (de Bruyn et al., 1998a,b).
For road fatalities, the literature has suggested a biphasic relation-
ship with coupling in low-income countries and decoupling in higher-
income countries. By combining the two groups of countries with traffic
fatalities on the y-axis and income on the x-axis, an inverted U-shaped
curve can be obtained. This is widely associated with the environmental
Kuznets curve, based on the relationship between income inequalities
and income levels (Kuznets, 1955; Grossman and Krueger, 1991).
Most of these studies have used a cross-sectional approach (Kopits
and Cropper, 2005; Paulozzi et al., 2007). In other words, the analysis
has been conducted using road fatalities (y-axis) and income levels
(x-axis) of different countries over the same period. In a few cases,
panel data is used (Kopits and Cropper, 2005; and Law et al., 2011).
Generally, it was found that the turning point at which coupling ceases
and decoupling sets in would be around $8600 (1985 international dol-
lars) (Kopits and Cropper, 2005) or US$2000 Gross National Income per
capita (Paulozzi et al., 2007).
Table 1
The general decoupling framework.
Negative externality
Decrease Increase
ci increases ---(not possible) Expansive relative coupling
Growth
ci falls Expansive absolute decoupling Expansive relative decoupling
ci increases ---(not possible) Stationary absolute coupling
Income
Stable
ci falls Stationary absolute decoupling ---(not possible)
ci increases Recessive relative coupling Recessive absolute coupling
Decline
ci falls Recessive relative decoupling ---(not possible)
Shaded cells denote situations when y and ntei change in the same direction. They are de-
scribed as relative coupling/decoupling. When y and ntei change in the different directions,
the situation is called absolute coupling/decoupling.
In this study there is no attempt to test or identify a law or general-
ization (such as the environmental Kuznets curve) statistically. Any re-
lationship, however strong statistically with large historical datasets,
does not necessarily project into the future or may not apply to individ-
ual countries (Chowdhury and Moran, 2012). As argued and explained
by Stern et al. (1996), the environmental Kuznets curve is no more
than a statistical finding. Even though there may be a strong statistical
relationship, other policy decisions are needed to change the observed
patterns, such as medical improvement and actions against corruption;
and that the historical turn for the better is not inevitable or natural
(Law et al., 2011).
Given the above understanding, we do not intend to establish statis-
tical relationships through large historical datasets to predict whether
things will become better or worse, or when the turning point will
take place, or how strong was the overall relationship between income
growth and a negative transport externality statistically for a certain
group of countries within a specific time period. Instead, we want to de-
velop a typology to better understand decoupling, and as a useful tool to
identify countries where useful lessons may be learnt, bearing in mind
that the local context will always be important. Moreover, the aim of
this paper is neither to evaluate nor to track progress towards the fulfil-
ment of a plan or specific targets. Rather, it is hoped that some empirical
evidence will be found that challenges the common notion that eco-
nomic growth will “inevitably” lead to more transport CO2 emission
and traffic fatalities – a price that a society has to pay for its economic
development. It is important that evidence can be obtained for aca-
demics, industry, governments and non-government organization
(NGOs) to identify good decoupling examples.
3. Data and methodology
For the more detailed analysis, we have selected case studies from
both the developed and developing countries (United Nations, 2015),
as can be seen from Table 2. They include the BRIC (Brazil, Russia,
India and China), as well as the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Ni-
geria and Turkey) from the developing countries, and seven of the larg-
est developed economies, covering the US, Germany, France, the UK,
Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. It is recognized that the transport
problems of large countries, measured by both the size of their econo-
mies and by population, can be dramatically different to small ones.
These 15 countries (shaded in Table 2) accounted for 64.1% of the Global
GDP, 58.5% of the Global Population and 63% of Global CO2 emissions.
They also accounted for 57.5% of the CO2 emissions from transport. In
absolute terms, 21.28 Gt CO2 out of 33.75 Gt CO2 came from them;
and 4.06 Gt CO2 out of 7.06 Gt CO2 came from transport in these 15
countries. The 15 countries also accounted for 60.3% of all global road fa-
talities (2010 – last column Table 2). The study period roughly covers
two decades from 1990 to 2010 at five-year intervals. 1990 is often
taken as the baseline against which carbon targets have been set since
the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. It is also a period over which globalisation
has intensified, with huge changes occurring in both developed and de-
veloping countries. We also include 2012, though the period of 2010 to
2012 is rather short, but this period may be important to see whether
decoupling has taken place more recently, particularly in light of the
global economic downturn in 2008. More recent data for 2013 and
2014 only exist for limited countries.
The CO2 emissions data used at the country level is taken from the
World Bank and it does not include international shipping and interna-
tional aviation. It only includes domestic aviation, domestic navigation,
road, rail and pipeline transport (World Bank, 2015). For international
travel, there are well known problems of attribution and allocation
(Loo et al., 2014; Aall, 2014), and uncertainty over the exact levels of
emissions over the period 1990–2010. For international aviation, the
pattern is one of substantial increase, doubling in the UK over the period
(1990–2011) and now accounting for 5.9% of all transport emissions
(Committee on Climate Change, UK, 2013). The comparable figure for
 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144 137

Table 2
The largest countries by GDP (2013).

Country (ranked GDP Population (2013) CO2 (2012) emissions (t Transport CO2 (2012) emissions (t Road Traffic deaths 2010: numbers and (rate per
by GDP) (2013) (millions) per capita) per capita) 100,000 population)
(millions
US$)

United States 16,768,100 316.2 16.2 5.305 (32.7%) 35,490 (11.4)

China 9,240,270 1357.4 6.1 0.522 (13.9%) 275,983 (20.5)
Japan 4,919,563 127.3 9.6 1.691(17.6%) 6625 (5.2)
Germany 3,730,261 80.6 9.2 1.797 (19.5%) 3830 (4.7)
France 2,806,428 63.9 5.1 1.879 (36.8%) 3992 (6.4)
United Kingdom 2,678,455 64.1 7.2 1.772 (24.6%) 2278 (3.7)
Brazil 2,245,673 195.5 2.2 1.001 (45.5%) 43,869 (22.5)
Italy 2,149,485 59.8 6.2 1.674 (27.0%) 4371 (7.2)
Russian Federation 2,096,777 143.5 11.6 1.639 (14.9%) 26,567 (18.6)
India 1,875,141 1276.5 1.6 0.175 (10.9%) 231,027 (18.9)
Canada 1,826,769 35.3 15.3 4.913 (32.1%) 2296 (6.8)
Australia 1,560,372 23.1 16.7 3.878 (23.2%) 1363 (6.1)
Spain 1,393,040 46.6 5.8 1.777 (30.6%) 2478 (5.4)
Korea, Rep. 1,304,554 50.2 11.9 1.761 (14.8%) 6784 (14.1)
Mexico 1,260,915 117.6 3.7 1.306 (35.3%) 16,714 (14.7)
Indonesia 868,346 248.5 1.8 0.521 (28.9%) 42,434 (17.7)
Netherlands 853,539 16.8 9.8 1.940 (19.9%) 640 (3.9)
Turkey 822,135 76.1 4.0 0.694 (17.4%) 8758 (12.0)
Saudi Arabia 748,450 30.1 16.2 4.217 (26.0%) 6800 (24.8)
Switzerland 685,434 8.1 5.2 2.145 (41.3%) 327 (4.3)
Argentina 609,889 41.3 4.6 1.176 (25.6%) 5094 (12.6)
Sweden 579,680 9.6 4.3 2.104 (48.9%) 278 (3.0)
Poland 525,866 38.5 7.6 1.183 (15.6%) 4509 (11.8)
Belgium 524,806 11.2 9.5 2.204 (23.2%) 869 (8.1)
Nigeria 521,803 173.6 0.4 0.149 (37.3%) 53,339 (33.7)
Norway 512,580 5.1 7.2 2.639 (36.7%) 208 (4.3)
New Zealand 185,788 4.5 7.2 3.016 (41.9%) 398 (9.1)
World total 75,621,858 7137 4.51 1.021 (22.6%) 1,240,000 (18.0)

Threshold for GDP is set at economies over US$500 billion – except New Zealand which is ranked 54 in the global listing. The figures in brackets are the transport proportion of the total per
capita CO2 emissions.
Sources: http://www.prb.org/pdf13/2013-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf Accessed 27th May 2015; http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp Accessed 27th May 2015; https://
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsFromFuelCombustionHighlights2014.pdf Accessed 27th May 2015, pp. 84–86; http://www.who.int/
violence:injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/report/statistical_annex.pdf?ua=1 Accessed 23rd June 2015, pp. 244–250.

international shipping is 2.1% of all transport emissions. But the data for
all 15 countries is not available over the 20 year review period. Never-
theless, the issues of CO2 emissions from international marine bunkers
and international aviation should be seen as a growing and important
element in the decarbonisation of the transport sector globally, even
though they are not captured in the transport CO2 emissions data of spe-
cific countries by the World Bank (IEA/OECD, 2009).
Similarly, the road traffic death data from the World Health Organi-
zation (WHO, 2015) suffer from problems of underreporting (Loo and
Tsui, 2007) and do not include traffic fatalities on railways, waterways
and civil aviation (WHO, 2015). Generally, Loo and Tsui (2007) found
that underreporting tends to be most serious for minor injuries but
road fatalities data is reliable in many countries. More importantly,
road traffic fatalities (including pedestrians, cyclists, passengers and
drivers) can reflect the scale of the global traffic injury burden to a
large extent. Apart from a few exceptions (see below), time-series
transport fatality figures by mode are not available for systematic com-
parisons. Generally though, it is the road system that accounts for the
vast majority of fatalities (European Commission, 2015; Elvik and
Bjornskau, 2005; and Savage, 2013). For example, in the USA highways
represented 94% (32,885 out of 34,951 transport fatalities) of the total
transport fatalities including air, pipeline, gas and hazardous liquid, rail-
road, transit, and waterborne transport (Chambers, 2012). Once again,
this data limitation is recognized, and further in-depth studies for indi-
vidual countries should supplement the WHO data with fatalities from
other modes whenever possible, as the local situation may differ across
different countries.
We have outlined the different definitions associated with the
decoupling framework, and we now detail some sub-indicators to ex-
amine the relationship between the change in national income (GNIPPP)
and the negative transport externality (ntei). Transport intensity (ci) is
broken down into two constituent parts, each with different analytical
meanings.
T ntei
ci ¼  ð3Þ
y T
where T is total transport volume of the society. The first term on the
right-hand side (Ty ) is called transport volume intensity. It shows how
much transport has been generated in the society given an income
level of y. It can be considered as a transport economic efficiency indica-
tor (Banister and Stead, 2002). Here, we use pkm and tkm per GNIPPP to
reflect transport intensity. In order to obtain a combined measure of
passenger and freight transport volume, we convert tkm to pkm by
the formula of 1 tkm ≡ 10 pkm. This conversion ratio is adopted from
a Report of European Commission (2009) on energy intensity (con-
sumption per unit of traffic performed). If a higher freight-passenger
conversion ratio is used, the total transport volume in a country with a
larger freight sector will increase more than proportionately than one
with a smaller freight sector. Further methodological refinements and
calibrations of the freight-passenger conversion ratio can be made,
and they would involve additional assumptions and a complex under-
standing of the economies in the individual countries. In the literature,
other conversion ratios, ranging from 1 to 13.9, have been used based
on the relative costs or relative weight of passengers and freight
(Wang et al., 2011; Schipper et al., 2007; Perez-Martinez, 2010). None-
theless, these other ratios are all mode-specific (for example, rail versus
road) and can be highly context-specific (especially those involving
costs, passenger weights and relative passenger and goods vehicle
fleet composition). Moreover, we consider it undesirable and difficult
to separate the analysis of passenger and freight transport in this
study because of its focus on negative transport externalities at a
138 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144

sectoral level. For instance, it is difficult to attribute a traffic fatality to ei- Table 3
ther passenger or freight transport without additional detailed informa- A typology of changing relationships between income and a negative transport
externality.
tion. Balancing different considerations, the European Commission
conversion ratio is used in this study to calculate the total converted Transport externality
pkm (cpkm), which is the sum of the pkm and converted tkm. Recent Decrease (Δntei<0) Increase (Δntei>0)
evidence in Europe seems to suggest that transport volume intensity Growth IIIa Ia
has not been reducing over time (Peake, 1994; Stead, 2001; Tapio et (Δy>0) ci falls ci increases
al., 2007). If this sub-indicator (Ty ) is reducing while income grows, the |Δy|>|Δntei| |Δy|≤|Δntei|
|ei|<1, negative |ei|≥1, positive
transport system is becoming more efficient. Consistent with the above Decoupling: absolute; weak Coupling: relative; strong
conceptual framework, a low transport volume intensity of the economy IIIb Ib
points towards immaterialisation, which refers to a decoupling of mate- ci falls ci falls
rial production and consumption (in this case, covering transport activi- |Δy|≤|Δntei| |Δy|>|Δntei|
|ei|≥1, negative |ei|<1, positive
ties) from economic production (represented by GNIPPP). However, as
Decoupling: absolute; strong Decoupling:; relative; weak

Income
interactions among people (passenger transport) and the trading of
goods (freight transport) intensify in a globalized world, this term is Decline IVa IIa
(Δy<0) ci increases ci increases
more likely to increase.
|Δy|>|Δntei| |Δy|>|Δntei|
The second term on the right-hand side (nte T ) is called the externality
i
|ei|<1, positive |ei|<1, negative
intensity of transport. It shows the amount of transport externality i per Coupling: relative; weak Coupling: absolute; weak

unit of transport volume generated in the society. In this paper, the ex-
ternality intensity of transport for CO2 and traffic fatalities are called the
carbon intensity of transport and traffic fatality intensity of transport,
respectively. The former is measured by CO2 per total transport volume.
The latter is measured as the traffic fatalities per total transport volume.
Over time, technological advancements that reduce the damage and
other harms generated by the traffic volume on the environment and
human beings can lower this second term. Measures would include bet-
ter fuel efficiency and safer vehicle designs. Yet, there are other offset-
ting factors, such as the use of larger and heavier cars for private
transport, and more solo-driving (Loo and Li, 2012; Van den Brink and
Van Wee, 2001). Even when the externality intensity of transport is re-
ducing, the key is whether it is reducing at a sufficiently high rate to off-
set any increase in transport intensity for ci to fall. Theoretically, lower
externality intensity of transport points towards dematerialization, re-
ferring specifically to the decoupling of environmental and/or social
harm from material production (in this case, for transport activities).
Finally, the product of the above two constituent parts, ci, is called
the transport intensity, and it measures the actual negative transport
externalities per income, together with transport volumes (by passen-
ger and freight modes). While both sub-indicators of transport volume
intensity (Ty) and environmental intensity of transport (nte T ) provide use-
i
ful insights, Eq. (3) shows that the transport intensity (ci) can be calcu-
lated without actually needing to know transport volume (T). In other
words, the transport intensity can be calculated even for countries
which do not have comprehensive passenger and freight data. Apart
from the freight-passenger conversation ratio issue, some countries
(such as Indonesia) do not have comprehensive passenger and freight
transport volume data covering all major modes. In this study, there
are two transport externality intensity indices. The first one is transport
carbon intensity, which measures the transport CO2 per GNIPPP. Theo-
retically, the process of delinking CO2 emissions from economic produc-
tion is called decarbonisation (Tapio et al., 2007). Decarbonisation in the
transport sector is considered important because we are considering
transport carbon emissions and its relationship with economic produc-
tion. The second index is traffic fatality intensity, which measures the
traffic fatalities per GNIPPP. The “defatalisation” of transport is breaking
the link between higher rates of transport activity and the associated fa-
talities. In many countries there is a positive link between these two var-
iables. It also acts as an important social dimension to the debate on
negative externalities, and it complements the environmental focus on
decarbonisation.
Table 3 summarizes the 8 possible categories that show the different
combinations between income (y) and the transport externality (ntei).
Allocation of each country to one of these mutually exclusive categories
depends on the direction and magnitude of the changes in these two
key indicators (Δy and Δntei). Category I covers those countries that
IVb IIb
ci falls ci increases
|Δy|≤|Δntei| |Δy|≤|Δntei|
|ei|≥1, positive |ei|≥1, negative
Decoupling: relative; strong Coupling: absolute; strong
Key: The light green cell refers to the most desirable situation and the dark grey cell de-
notes the worst situation.
have experienced an increase in both income and the negative transport
externality during a study period. Category IV relates to the opposite sit-
uation, namely a reduction in both income and the negative transport
externality. Category III shows the situation where there is a reduction
in negative transport externality but growth in income. Category IIIb
represents the best possibility, as there is income growth and a reduc-
tion in the absolute level of negative transport externalities, with the
rate of reduction of the latter being higher than the former. Category II
refers to those cases where there is an increase in the negative transport
externality but a decline in income. Notice that ci increases in Category
II, and Category IIb may be considered as the least desirable, either
from a development perspective or the vision of reducing the absolute
levels of negative transport externalities.
Within each category, two sub-categories are defined based on the
relative magnitude of change in income (|Δy|) and negative transport
externality (|Δntei |). When the former is larger, the negative transport
externality is inelastic to income change (|ei | b 1). This is the inelastic
externality categories of Ib, IIa, IIIa and IVa. The magnitude that
decoupling or coupling has been happening is described as weak. De-
pending on the combination of directions of change of income and neg-
ative transport externality, the elasticity may be positive or not.
Scenarios with the negative transport externality being elastic to in-
come change (|ei | ≥ 1) belong to the elastic externality categories of Ia,
IIb, IIIb and IVb. In particular, category IVb of relative decouping arises
when the former drops at a higher rate than the latter, though both
are declining. The key point here is the weakening of the relationship
(ci, the intensity of negative transport externality i per income, actually
drops), though the relationship is still positive. The magnitude that
decoupling or coupling has been happening is described as strong. It is
noted that, based on a relatively precise set of elasticity measures of
CO2 emissions in Europe, Tapio (2002) has adopted a finer classification
of elasticity with 0.8–1.2 as coupling (no change), b0.8 as decoupling
and N1.2 as negative decoupling (here, coupling is used). Nonetheless,
it is not clear why 0.2 (± 20%) was chosen to identify changes which
are not “slight”. The focus of this paper is not on the precise estimation
and descriptions of the different elasticities by country, and the simpler
and more general analytical terms of relative and absolute decoupling
and coupling have been used (Tapio et al., 2007).
 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144 139

Although local contexts always differ, policy-makers may rank the
different categories (and sub-categories) based on two general princi-
ples. On the one hand, positive economic growth is desirable in develop-
ing countries, if not also in developed countries. Nonetheless, this does
not suggest “maximizing” economic growth or achieving economic
growth at the expense of other factors. Here, it generally refers to a pos-
itive rate of growth of GNIPPP over a five-year period. On the other hand,
any negative transport externality is undesirable per se. Its absolute
level should be minimized. Where there is a conflict of the two
principles, the local governments and people have to make choices
among interrelated but often conflicting sustainability goals, such as en-
vironmental protection, economic efficiency and social equity (Loo,
2008). After all, sustainability is neither one single goal nor a homoge-
nous set of goals. The ultimate aim of this typology is to put each country
over a specific period into one of the eight categories (Table 3). Atten-
tion will be given to countries that belong to the most desirable catego-
ries (Category IIIb) so that best decoupling practices can possibly be
learnt, and similarly, to those countries that belong to the most undesir-
able categories (Category IIb) for lessons to be avoided.
4. Results
In the Sections 4.1–4.3, we analyse the sub-indicators of transport
volume intensity, the carbon intensity of transport and traffic fatality in-
tensity of transport for each 9 of the 15 countries for which there is data
for the 6 time points (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2000, 2012). Brazil, India,
Indonesia, New Zealand, Nigeria and Turkey are not included as there is
no comprehensive passenger and freight distance data available. In
Section 4.4, the analysis is extended to all 15 countries to examine trans-
port externality intensity for both carbon and traffic fatalities.
Australia (7.30 cpkm/$) had the highest transport intensity. Yet, in
2012, Canada (6.56 cpkm/$) had the highest transport intensity. The
UK (1.24 cpkm/$) has maintained its record of achieving the lowest
transport volume intensity among the developed countries throughout
the study period. This low transport volume intensity might relate to
the efficiency of internal transport within the UK. Besides, the size of
the country may be important – the smaller the country, the lower the
cpkm/$ as distances are likely to be shorter. This seems to be a pattern
across all the data, perhaps with the exception of Mexico, in Table 4.
Overall, the latest situation (2012) seems to suggest that Russia
(15.34 cpkm/$) and China (12.01 cpkm/$) were having the highest
transport intensity. Since transport intensity reflects the level of trans-
port activities per GNIPPP, the high transport intensities in these coun-
tries also partly reflect the low economic value but high transport-
intensity of their main economic activities. Most notably, the rise of
China as a major global economic power cannot be separated from its
industrialization, especially after the Open Policy (Loo, 2000). Moreover,
the huge territorial extent of Russia, Canada, China, Australia and USA
has an effect on the distance travelled within countries and, hence,
their transport intensities also tend to be higher. Most other countries
achieved similar transport intensities below 5 cpkm/$. The UK had the
lowest overall transport intensity (below 1.5 cpkm/$). When the entire
period is considered (that is, 1990 compared to 2012), immaterialisation
in the transport sector has been happening both in developed and devel-
oping countries. The reduction in the transport volume intensity from the
beginning (1990/1995) to the end (2010/2012) of the study period varies
from 17.46% (Germany from 1995 to 2012) to 66.17% (Russia from 1995
to 2012).
4.2. Carbon intensity of transport

4.1. Transport volume intensity Table 5 summarizes the carbon intensity of transport in terms of
tons of CO2 per 10 million converted pkm (t/10 m cpkm). Although
Generally, we see that all 9 countries have shown a general trend of most countries were having some degree of reduction in the carbon in-
reduction in transport volume intensity over time in the past two de- tensity of transport when the entire two decades is considered, the
cades (Table 4). Among the developing countries, nearly all had experi- overall picture has been much more variable. The trend of decline was
enced a persistent decline in transport volume intensity throughout the not persistently recorded in any of the developing countries. In 1990,
study period. The high transport volume intensity in Russia in the 1990s Mexico (504.72 t/10 m cpkm) was emitting the highest carbon intensity
was notable. Yet, it has dropped significantly after 2000. In 1990, the of transport and China (44.74 t/10 m cpkm) achieved the lowest inten-
country with the highest transport intensity was China with sity level. In 2012, the highest figure was still recorded in Mexico with
24.43 cpkm/$ and the lowest was 3.65 cpkm/$ in Mexico. In 2012, the 481.84 t/10 m cpkm and lowest in China with 43.74 t/10 m cpkm. The
highest figure was recorded in Russia with 15.34 cpkm/$ and the lowest high reliance of Mexico on cars, partially reflecting the American auto-
was found in Mexico with 1.81 cpkm/$. mobile-dependent lifestyle, the expansion of North American and Mex-
Among the developed countries, all except Germany have shown a ican automotive industry and national policies (Cravioto et al., 2013;
persistent decline. There has been an increase in the transport volume ITDP Mexico, 2012), have probably contributed to its high carbon inten-
intensity in Germany from 1995 to 2000. In 1990, the countries with sity of transport and the increases in 2000, 2005 and 2010. Road trans-
the highest and lowest transport intensities in this group were the port has been the dominant transport mode in passenger and freight
USA (12.36 cpkm/$) and the UK (2.93 cpkm/$), respectively. In 2010, trips in Mexico since the 1950s and 1980, respectively (Cravioto et al.,
2013). In comparison, the importance of waterways and railways in
China and Russia have greatly contributed to their lower transport
Table 4 CO2 emission intensity, compared with more car-oriented countries
Transport volume intensity (cpkm per dollar).
(Loo and Li, 2012).
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Percentage reduction
(%)a
China 24.43 17.02 12.77 12.78 12.01 12.01 50.84
Table 5
Mexico 3.65 3.38 2.71 2.33 1.91 1.81 50.41
Carbon intensity of transport (t CO2 per 10 million cpkm).
Russia n.a. 45.34 37.83 28.53 16.92 15.34 66.17
Australia 10.51 9.80 8.42 8.15 7.30 5.62 46.53 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Percentage reduction
Canada 11.26 10.43 9.33 8.37 6.91 6.56 41.77 (%)
France 3.40 3.15 2.81 2.45 1.91 1.77 47.94 China 44.74 42.50 61.23 51.50 43.80 43.74 2.24
Germany n.a.b 2.52 2.84 2.57 2.24 2.08 17.46 Mexico 504.72 400.85 413.91 471.93 508.78 481.84 4.53
UK 2.93 2.47 2.04 1.57 1.31 1.24 57.68 Russia n.a. 55.76 56.07 51.12 55.58 50.75 8.98
USA 12.36 10.94 8.58 6.94 6.00 n.a. 51.46 Australia 225.02 205.62 198.34 165.98 153.70 185.45 17.59
Canada 226.07 218.07 201.81 184.55 199.68 200.85 11.15
Key: n.a. not available. France 354.67 343.77 320.33 300.74 297.22 308.22 13.10
a Comparison between the beginning (1990 or 1995, whichever earlier is
Germany n.a. 386.78 307.70 247.89 219.10 217.49 43.77
available) to the end (2010 or 2012, whichever later is available) of the entire UK 437.60 427.63 406.99 415.35 433.90 423.74 3.17
study period. USA 210.49 200.25 212.52 215.44 201.08 n.a. 4.47
b This relates to the reunification of the country in 1990.
Key: n.a. not available.
Note: Shaded cells denote a drop in comparison to the previous benchmark year. Note: Shaded cells denote a drop in comparison to the previous benchmark year.
140 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144

Among the developed countries, the carbon intensity of transport has
also been quite high (N 100 t/10 m cpkm). Over the last two decades, the
situation has only been improving consistently in Germany. In Australia,
Canada and France, the situation has also been improving until recently
(in 2010 or 2012). In the UK and USA, some ups and downs have been re-
corded. In 1990, the USA (210.49 t/10 m cpkm) was actually emitting the
lowest carbon intensity of transport. As the carbon intensity of transport
include both passenger and freight transport, the high reliance of freight
transport on rail in the USA may have contributed to its low overall carbon
intensity of transport (Loo and Liu, 2005). Nonetheless, no significant
lowering of the carbon intensity of transport has been achieved in the
USA since 1990 (201.00 t/10 m cpkm in 2000). In contrast, noticeable
progress was achieved in Australia with a similar level of carbon intensity
of transport as the USA in 1990 (from 225.02 t/10 m cpkm in 1990 to
185.45 t/10 m cpkm in 2012). Also, the UK's highest carbon intensity of
transport (437.60 t/10 m cpkm) in 1990 can be closely related to its rela-
tively high reliance on roads for both passenger and freight transport. In
2010/2012, the highest and lowest carbon intensity of transport among
the developed countries included were the UK (423.74 t/10 m cpkm)
and Australia (185.45 t/10 m cpkm) respectively.
In 2012, there was no consistent pattern between developing and
developed countries with respect to the carbon intensity of transport.
Lessons can be learnt beyond the developed countries. For instance,
Russia and China with a higher reliance on railways and waterways
had the lowest carbon intensity of transport. If we compare the carbon
intensity of transport of the same country at the beginning (1990/
1995) and the end (2010/2012) of the study period, decarbonisation
of the transport sector (that is, lower carbon intensity of transport)
has happened in all countries, at least in terms of their national carbon
emissions. The greatest reduction was achieved in Germany, with a
43.77% cut in its carbon intensity of transport from 1995 to 2012.
4.3. Traffic fatality intensity of transport
Generally, the trends in traffic fatality intensity over the 6 different
years have been rather encouraging in all countries included in this
analysis (Table 6). Among the developing countries, the trend of decline
was persistently recorded in Russia. In 2012, the country with the
highest traffic fatality intensity of transport was Mexico (48.64 persons
killed/10 billion cpkm) and the lowest level was recorded in China (3.39
persons killed/10 billion cpkm). This probably reflects the exceptionally
high automobile dependency of Mexico among the developing coun-
tries. In particular, the increased car use in Mexico over the past two de-
cades was clear, as the vehicle-kilometre travelled in the country tripled
from 1990 to 2010 (ITDP Mexico, 2012).
In the selected developed countries, the situation has also been en-
couraging with better road safety (lower traffic fatality intensity of
transport) over time. When the level of traffic fatality intensity of trans-
port was considered, the USA (6.00 persons killed/10 billion cpkm) was
the safest and France (32.01 persons killed/10 billion cpkm) was the
least safe in 1990. The situation improved quite dramatically in France
with 8.31 persons killed/10 billion cpkm in 2012. From Table 6, Canada's
transport sector was the safest that year (2.24 persons killed/
10 billion cpkm). Australia's traffic fatality intensity of transport has
also been staying at a similarly low level at 2.44 persons killed/
10 billion cpkm in 2012.
Once again, the 2012 figures support the finding that developed
countries were not persistently having better or worse traffic fatality in-
tensity of transport. Rather, Canada, Australia and China have achieved
the lowest levels traffic fatality intensity of transport in 2012. When
the entire period is considered, “defatalisation” of transport (that is,
lower fatality intensity of transport) has occurred in all countries,
whether in developed or developing countries. The percentage of reduc-
tion varies from about 39.5% in Mexico and the USA at the low end to
81.57% in China at the high end. Except for Mexico, Russia and the
USA, the reduction exceeds 50%, suggesting that the traffic fatality in-
tensity of transport in these six countries has reduced by more than
half over the last two decades.
4.4. Transport externality intensity: examples of carbon and traffic fatalities
This section examines the carbon intensity and traffic fatalities for all
15 countries, as measured by CO2 emissions and deaths per unit of
GNIPPP over the six different years (Tables 7 and 8). Most cells (Table
7) were shaded, suggesting a drop in the level of national transport car-
bon intensity in comparison with the previous benchmark year.
Decarbonisation in the transport sector (lower transport CO2 per GNIPPP
- ton/million dollars), seems to be taking place over time from 1990 to
2012 in all 15 countries. Within each country, the CO2 emission gener-
ated by transport activities to produce one dollar of GNIPPP over time
has become lower over time. The greater is the percentage of reduction
(last column in Table 7), the faster the rate of transport decarbonisation.
Notably, while transport decarbonisation has happened in all case stud-
ies at the country level, the process has been the fastest in Russia
(71.72%) and Turkey (66.92%). In Germany, the UK, India, Nigeria, the
USA, Australia, France, Mexico and China, the transport carbon intensity
has all reduced by more than half (reduction of N 50%) over the 1990 to
2012 period.
When the changes of GNIPPP and ntei over time are considered, the
income elasticity of a negative transport externality (ei) can be calculat-
ed. Table 8 shows the income elasticity of transport CO2 in all countries
for different periods. The income elasticity used in this paper refers to
relative, rather than absolute, elasticity (Mankiw, 2015). Except for
1995–2000 and 2010–2012 for developing countries, the traffic carbon
elasticity is positive and less than one, suggesting a dominantly positive
but inelastic relationship between the direction of GNIPPP and transport
CO2 change. In the 2010–2012 period, traffic carbon emissions were
elastic to income change in Turkey, Indonesia, India and Brazil. Yet, a
positive elasticity (ei N 0) may suggest a fall of income with reduced
transport CO2 or income growth with higher transport CO2. In addition,

Table 7
Table 6 Traffic carbon intensity (t CO2 per million dollars).
Traffic fatality intensity of transport (persons killed per 10 billion cpkm).
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Percentage reduction
Brazil 95.16 90.82 92.38 78.38 69.38 76.89 19.20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Percentage China 109.29 72.34 78.17 65.82 52.59 52.51 51.95
reduction (%) India 93.16 82.68 49.88 34.46 33.50 38.57 58.60
China 18.39 19.42 20.61 12.04 4.51 3.39 81.57 Indonesia 74.15 67.72 85.55 65.83 63.32 65.64 11.48
Mexico 184.30 135.38 112.07 109.83 97.24 87.16 52.71
Mexico 80.38 58.57 51.03 53.77 49.96 48.64 39.49 Nigeria 75.53 66.34 100.89 66.85 36.23 32.09 57.51
Russia n.a. 8.76 8.03 7.19 5.53 5.48 37.44 Russia 275.21 252.82 212.13 145.84 94.02 77.82 71.72
Australia 7.75 5.63 4.40 3.12 2.24 2.44 68.52 Turkey 129.68 124.49 66.16 53.11 41.94 42.90 66.92
Australia 236.40 201.42 167.10 135.32 112.20 104.31 55.88
Canada 6.56 4.82 3.57 3.04 2.42 2.24 65.91 Canada 254.58 227.39 188.31 154.51 138.04 131.70 48.27
France 32.01 22.78 17.82 11.10 8.79 8.31 74.04 France 120.66 108.32 90.07 73.78 56.72 54.47 54.86
Germany n.a. 19.90 12.18 7.78 4.93 4.82 75.78 Germany 112.97 97.53 87.24 63.78 49.07 45.17 60.02
New Zealand 201.61 193.96 170.25 149.98 117.33 108.19 46.34
UK 18.76 12.62 10.82 9.95 6.37 6.14 67.27 UK 128.01 105.50 83.15 65.23 56.94 52.41 59.06
USA 6.00 4.97 4.73 4.75 3.63 n.a. 39.50 USA 260.25 219.16 182.41 149.62 120.55 112.13 56.91
Key: n.a. not available. Key: n.a. not available.
Note: Shaded cells denote a drop in comparison to the previous benchmark year. Note: Shaded cells denote a drop in comparison to the previous benchmark year.
 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144 141

Table 8 observations falls in the least desirable category of IIb. Most observa-
Income elasticity of transport carbon emissions in different periods. tions also do not belong to the most desirable Category IIIb but to Cate-
1990–1995 1995–2000 2000–2005 2005–2010 2010–2012 gory Ib, where both income and transport CO2 increase, but with an
Brazil 0.82 1.11 0.32 0.59 2.44 income elasticity of transport carbon emissions less than one. In other
China 0.31 1.20 0.64 0.57 0.99 words, weak relative decoupling has taken place in these countries
India 0.64 –0.26 0.14 0.93 2.08
Indonesia 0.78 6.01 0.29 0.88 1.25
(Ib) over the period (1990–2012). In addition, strong relative
Mexico 0.15 0.43 0.90 0.53 0.09 decoupling was also recorded in Russia in the 1990–1995 period (IVb).
Nigeria 0.19 4.14 0.28 –0.14 0.08 Notably, our analysis also shows that a sizable number of observa-
Russia 1.19 –0.05 0.24 0.15 –0.16 tions belong to Category III, with positive income growth but an abso-
Turkey 0.83 –0.01 0.21 0.37 1.17
lute reduction in transport CO2 emissions (IIIa and IIIb). In other
Australia 0.32 0.33 0.19 0.25 0.44
Canada 0.43 0.29 0.24 0.28 0.33 words, strong or weak absolute decoupling has taken place. Category
France 0.39 0.27 –0.04 –0.29 0.09 IIIb is the most desirable in terms of balancing economic growth and en-
Germany 0.26 0.20 –0.43 –0.22 0.02 vironmental harm because the percentage of transport CO2 reduction
New Zealand 0.83 0.44 0.44 0.02 –0.06
was even higher than that of income growth (i.e. ei ≥ 1). Yet, there is
UK 0.05 0.16 0.11 –0.99 –1.00
USA 0.28 0.34 0.17 –0.49 0.06
only one observation in this scenario – the UK in the period 2010–
2012. This unique result may be explained by the combination of a
Key: n.a. not available.
Note: Shaded cells denote negative elasticity. slow decline in transport-related CO2 emissions in the UK since 2010
Elasticity value that is N1 or smaller than −1 is typed in boldface. (from 119.1 Mt CO2 in 2010 to 116.9 Mt CO2 in 2012, DECC, 2015) and
the small growth in the economy from 2010 to 2012. Yet, it should be
negative elasticity values are found in several different countries at dif- noted that the size of the UK economy in real terms in 2012 was still
ferent points in time (shaded cells in Table 8), but in all cases they are smaller than 2008 but larger than in 2010. From a broader perspective,
inelastic. Once again, the negative elasticity may suggest declining the experiences of weak and strong absolute decoupling (IIIa and IIIb)
transport CO2 emissions with economic growth or raising transport are more recent. In the period 2005–2010, weak absolute decoupling
CO2 emissions with economic decline. To understand the complex im- occurred in France, Germany, the UK, the USA and Nigeria. In the period
plications of ei on the decoupling of income and negative transport ex- 2010–2012, some early signs of decoupling can be observed in Russia,
ternalities, we need to synthesize the information and apply the New Zealand and the UK.
typology, outlined in Section 3. Lastly, it is worth mentioning that strong relative coupling (Ia) has
Based on the directions of the change in income and negative trans- occurred in Brazil, China, Indonesia and Nigeria in 1995–2000. In
port externality and the income elasticity of transport carbon emissions 2010–2012, it occurred in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey, suggesting
(ei) over time, we may put the experience of each country in each sub- that the increase in transport CO2 emissions was happening more rapid-
period in one of the eight positions in Table 9. To recall, Category IIb is ly than income growth. When coupled with fast income growth, the in-
the most undesirable with an elastic ei of increasing negative transport crease in transport CO2 emissions can be substantial, and the threat to
externality but with income decline. In contrast, Category IIIb is the transport decarbonisation can be severe.
most desirable with also an elastic ei but denoting positive income Table 10 shows the changes in traffic fatality intensity (persons
growth but reductions in the level of the negative transport externality. killed/per 100 million dollars) in each of the 15 countries at the bench-
Our analysis of the 15 countries (Table 9) shows that none of the mark years from 1990 to 2012. From 1995 to 2010, both developing
countries and developed countries have achieved significant improve-
ments in road safety, as evidenced from the falling intensity trends
(most cells are shaded in Table 10). The percentage reduction for coun-
Table 9
tries with data available in all benchmark years (that is, except Brazil,
Application of the decoupling typology to transport carbon intensity.
India and Indonesia) was well over 70%, suggesting that the level of traf-
Transport externality
fic fatality intensity was only about a quarter of that at the beginning of
Decrease (Δntei<0) Increase (Δntei>0)
Growth IIIa Ia the period. The percentage reduction ranges from 40.43% in Indonesia
(ΔGNIPPP>0) 1995–2000: India*, Russia*, 1995–2000: Brazil*, China*, to 90.87% in China. Nonetheless, Table 10 also shows that the developed
Turkey* Indonesia*, Nigeria*
2000–2005: France, Germany 2010–2012: Brazil*, Indonesia*,
and the developing countries can still be clearly divided into two groups
2005–2010: Nigeria*, France, Turkey* in 2012, with the former being able to achieve lower levels of road fatal-
Germany, UK, USA
ities per billion GNIPPP (ranging from 0.08 in the UK to 0.23 in New
2010–2012: Russia*, New Zealand
IIIb Ib
2010–2012: UK 1990–1995: Brazil*, China*, India*,
Indonesia*, Mexico*, Nigeria*,
Turkey*, Australia, Canada, France,
Table 10
Germany, New Zealand, UK, USA Traffic fatality intensity (persons killed per 100 million dollars).
1995–2000: Mexico*, Australia,
National income

Canada, France, Germany, New 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Percentage reduction
Zealand, UK, USA Brazil 3.09 2.64 2.00 1.92 1.66 1.61 47.90
2000–2005: Brazil*, China*, India*, China 4.49 3.31 2.63 1.54 0.54 0.41 90.87
Indonesia*, Mexico*, Nigeria*,
Russia*, Turkey*, Australia, Canada,
India 5.49 4.96 3.79 2.92 2.53 2.24 59.20
New Zealand, UK, USA Indonesia 2.30 1.38 1.14 1.30 1.08 1.37 40.43
2005–2010: Brazil*, China*, India*, Mexico 2.94 1.98 1.42 1.26 0.97 0.88 70.07
Indonesia*, Mexico*, Russia*, Nigeria 4.80 3.54 0.80 0.70 85.42
Turkey*, Australia, Canada, New
Russia 3.97 3.04 2.05 0.94 0.84 78.84
Zealand
2010–2012: China*, India*, Turkey 2.68 1.93 0.95 0.58 0.35 0.28 89.55
Mexico*, Nigeria*, Australia, Canada, Australia 0.81 0.55 0.37 0.25 0.16 0.14 82.72
France, Germany, USA Canada 0.74 0.50 0.33 0.25 0.17 0.15 79.73
Decline IVa IIa France 1.07 0.72 0.50 0.27 0.17 0.15 85.98
(ΔGNIPPP<0) Germany 0.51 0.50 0.35 0.20 0.11 0.10 80.39
IVb IIb New Zealand 1.56 0.96 0.60 0.41 0.30 0.23 85.26
1990–1995: Russia* UK 0.55 0.31 0.22 0.16 0.08 0.08 85.45
Key: The light green cell refers to the most desirable situation and the dark grey cell USA 0.74 0.54 0.41 0.33 0.22 0.20 72.97
denotes the worst situation. Key: n.a. not available.
Note: * denotes a developing country. Note: Shaded cells denote a drop in comparison to the previous benchmark year.
142 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144

Zealand), while the latter are higher (ranging from 0.28 in Turkey to Table 12
2.24 in India). Application of the decoupling typology to traffic fatality intensity.

Table 11 shows the income elasticity of traffic fatalities over the dif- Transport externality
Decrease (Δntei<0) Increase (Δntei>0)
ferent time periods. Here, the elasticity is predominately positive in de-
Growth IIIa Ia
veloping countries, suggesting a positive relationship between income (ΔGNIPPP>0) 1990–1995: Mexico*, Turkey*, 2000–2005: Indonesia*
and road traffic fatalities. Some notable exceptions of a negative rela- Australia, Canada, New Zealand, 2010–2012: Indonesia*
USA
tionship are also recorded in Turkey and in China during the more re-
1995–2000: Brazil*, Russia*,
cent periods of 2005–2010 and 2010–2012. In contrast, the elasticity Turkey*, Australia, Canada,
is largely negative in developed countries, suggesting a negative rela- France, New Zealand, UK
2000–2005: Turkey*, Australia,
tionship between income and road traffic fatalities. Though our purpose Canada, New Zealand, UK
is not to study the Kuznet's environmental curve (Grossman and 2005–2010: China*, Russia*,
Turkey*, Australia, New Zealand
Krueger, 1991), there seems to be evidence that it holds with regard 2010–2012: China*, Turkey*,

National income
to the income elasticity of traffic fatalities over this period. Strong nega- Australia, Canada, Germany
tive relationship (that is ei ≤ −1) has been recorded recently in 2005– IIIb Ib
1990–1995: France, UK 1990–1995: Brazil*, China*, India*,
2010 in the UK, the USA, Germany, Canada and France. In 2010–2012, 1995–2000: Indonesia*, Germany Indonesia*, Germany
strong negative relationship (ei ≤ −1) was experienced in New Zealand, 2000–2005: France, Germany 1995–2000: China*, India*, Mexico*,
2005–2010: Canada, France, USA
France and the UK, with the only positive elasticity value being recorded Germany, UK, USA 2000–2005: Brazil*, China*, India*,
in the USA (ei = 0.21). This contrasts with the positive elasticities for the 2010–2012: France, New Zealand, Mexico*, Russia*, USA
UK 2005–2010: Brazil*, India*,
developing countries over the review period, and so the interest is in de- Indonesia*, Mexico*
termining whether decoupling has taken place. 2010–2012: Brazil*, India*, Mexico*,
Nigeria*, Russia*, USA
Table 12 demonstrates that most observations were clustered in Cat- Decline IIa
IVa
egory III of weak or strong absolute decoupling. France, New Zealand (ΔGNIPPP<0) 1990–1995: Russia
and the UK have had recent periods of strong absolute decoupling
IVb IIb
with an elastic ei of greater than one (IIIb), suggesting that the reduction
in traffic fatality has been happening at a faster rate than the economic Key: The light green cell refers to the most desirable situation and the dark grey cell de-
growth rates. Other successful weak absolute decoupling (IIIa) has been notes the worst situation.
experienced in both developed and developing countries in the 2005– Note: * denotes a developing country.
2010 period and the 2010–2012 period.
Weak relative coupling (Ib) has occurred persistently in Brazil, India place in 12 out of 15 countries. In other words, this study finds that in-
and Mexico (all sub-periods). Yet, these three developing countries did come and transport CO2 decoupling is no longer an exception with rare
not manage to move to Category III by the end of the study period. In experiences only found in a few developed countries. It has become
contrast, China seems to have moved from weak relative decoupling more widespread in both developed and developing countries after
(Ia) to weak absolute decoupling (IIIa) after the mid-2000s. More fluc- 2010. Weak relative income-transport CO2 decoupling has occurred in
tuations are observed in the USA, which seems to be experiencing four developing countries (China, India, Mexico and Nigeria) and five
decoupling but to different degrees during the different sub-periods. developed countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the
Weak relative recoupling (IVa) has been recorded in Russia in 1990– USA). Absolute income-transport CO2 decoupling was recorded in one
1995, and strong relative recoupling (Ia) was found in Indonesia in developing country (Russia) and two developed countries (New
2000–2005 and 2010–2012. The overall conclusion here is that there Zealand and the UK).
are some very positive indications of a lowering of traffic fatality rates All countries, except Indonesia, have been experiencing income-traf-
in many countries over the last 20 years. However, there are still fic fatality decoupling, as a measure of a transport social externality. The
many countries where the fatalities are still increasing, but at a slower
rate than the growth in the economy. More attention needs to be paid
to road safety in each country as economic growth takes place. Table 13
Table 13 provides an overview of countries with decoupling experi- Countries experiencing a decoupling of economic growth and negative transport external-
ences in the most recent 2010–2012 period. In terms of the relationship ities, 2010–2012.
between income and transport CO2 emissions, decoupling has taken Type of Income-transport CO2 emissions Income-traffic fatalities
decoupling

Expansive Australia, Canada, Chinab, France, Brazilb, Indiab, Mexicob,

Table 11
weak Germany, Indiab, Mexicob, Nigeriab, Nigeriab, Russiab, USA
Income elasticity of traffic fatalities in different periods.
relative USA
1990–1995 1995–2000 2000–2005 2005–2010 2010–2012 (Category
Brazil 0.42 –0.57 0.82 0.52 0.56 Ib)a
China 0.46 0.48 0.07 –0.39 –0.36 Recessive – –
India 0.69 0.25 0.36 0.66 0.17 strong
Indonesia 0.01 –2.39 1.44 0.48 2.80 relative
Mexico –0.05 0.06 0.46 0.04 0.20 (Category
Nigeria 0.05 IVb)a
Russia 0.24 –0.54 0.21 –0.30 0.31 Expansive Russiab, New Zealand Australia, Canada,
Turkey –0.16 –0.10 –0.55 –0.20 –0.47 weak Chinab, Germany,
Australia –0.48 –0.29 –0.34 –0.57 –0.27 absolute Turkeyb
Canada –0.72 –0.39 –0.01 –1.32 –0.81 (Category
France –1.02 –0.30 –1.62 –1.14 –1.86 IIIa)a
Germany 0.87 –1.35 –1.23 –1.37 –0.15 Expansive UK France, New Zealand, UK
New Zealand –0.69 –0.74 –0.46 –0.26 –2.26 strong
UK –1.33 –0.14 –0.21 –6.28 –1.30 absolute
USA –0.22 0.01 0.13 –1.61 0.21 (Category
IIIb)a
Key: n.a. not available.
a
Note: Shaded cells denote negative elasticity. Categories correspond to those listed in Tables 3, 9 and 12.
b
Elasticity value that is N1 or smaller than −1 is typed in boldface. Denotes a developing country.
 B.P.Y. Loo, D. Banister / Journal of Transport Geography 57 (2016) 134–144
results are once again most encouraging. Weak relative income-traffic
fatality decoupling has occurred in one developed country (the USA)
and five developing countries (Brazil, India, Mexico, Nigeria and Russia).
Absolute decoupling has taken place mostly in developed countries
(Australia, Canada, France, Germany, New Zealand and the UK), but ex-
ceptions are found in China and Turkey where recent economic growth
has been decoupled from traffic fatalities. Strong absolute income-traffic
fatality decoupling has been taking place in France, New Zealand and
the UK. More efforts to examine these recent experiences will be worth-
while because this study only represents the first steps in drawing les-
sons from good practice in particular countries for others, as each
country has its own priorities, and each is at a different stage of develop-
ment. Further analysis is needed to include comment on the political
and governance aspects in the different countries to determine whether
transferability of experiences is feasible (or desirable).
5. Conclusions
This paper has extended the methodology on decoupling to cover
environmental (e.g. carbon) and social (e.g. fatalities) issues as well as
the economic dimensions (e.g. income growth and transport activities),
and together these form the three pillars of sustainability as presented
in the Brundtland Report (1987) (Holden et al., 2014). It has broadened
the sustainability debate to include a measure of social sustainability, as
well as the economic and environmental dimensions. 15 key countries
that account for the majority of the global economy, carbon emissions
and a substantial proportion of transport fatalities (Table 2) have
formed the focus of this national level study. It is important when think-
ing about the growth in global and national economies to be aware of
the consequences of only seeking a rather narrow conceptualisation of
growth. This is where the debates over decoupling have a key role to
play, as the argument is extended to consider a wider range of mea-
sures. Although it is accepted that economic growth is desirable (and ar-
guably necessary in developing countries), it needs not be at the cost of
the environment or a deterioration of the quality of social life.
The decarbonisation of the transport sector has proved more difficult
to achieve in the 15 countries over the 22 years than the reduction in the
levels of transport-related fatalities. The two key Tables (9 and 12) dem-
onstrate that many more countries are in the decoupling sector for fatal-
ity intensity (Table 11) than for carbon intensity (Table 8), even though
the time progression in each is positive, meaning that the decoupling
process is occurring more recently rather than in the earlier part of
the timeline. This paper has tried to combine different concepts embed-
ded in the decoupling debate and to apply them to 15 major countries
over the period since 1990, when concerns over the global environment
and social issues with respect of transport have become a central part of
the sustainable development agenda. It can also be seen that only one
country is placed in the negative income category, and then only for
one time period. Over the whole of this period (1990–2012), national
income levels have increased, but the performance of each country on
the environmental and social dimensions is much more variable.
The typology developed here has explored the potential and the real-
ity of decoupling through the measurement of changes in all three of the
elements of sustainable development, and it has detailed the concepts of
absolute and relative decoupling in strong and weak versions. The con-
clusion here is that there is progress being made, both for the reductions
in the carbonisation of transport, and in the levels of transport-related fa-
talities (Tables 9 and 12). It has also covered the potential for coupling,
where there is deterioration in the economic growth and an increase in
the levels of carbon emissions and transport fatalities. The analysis dem-
onstrates that the coupling effects are limited (Tables 9 and 12).
As suggested above, this study only represents the first steps in un-
derstanding the complexities of the relationships between these three
measures of sustainable transport and to draw lessons from good prac-
tice. Local contexts are always important if international experiences
are to generate relevant insights. Over the last 15 years (1995–2010),
143
the recent growth in international aviation and shipping has been
higher than the global GDP growth (1.27% pa), rising by over 3% per
annum (European Parliament, 2015). Hence, for countries with a sub-
stantial sector of international aviation and shipping, especially in rela-
tion to its population and economic size, more in-depth analysis must
be conducted. Even within the individual countries, there is no consis-
tency and clear pathways are not followed, as some have moved in a
positive direction to relative decoupling at one time period, only to
move back to a coupling position in a subsequent time period. Subse-
quent analysis might usefully determine the different pathways for a
set of countries over time to establish whether there are consistent pat-
terns emerging. Other possibilities for further analysis would be to sub-
divide the countries by stage of development to determine whether
different pathways are followed, and at what stage and under what con-
ditions the different types of decoupling occur.
In international comparative studies that attempt to establish differ-
ent patterns of sustainable development, there are always data limita-
tions. This paper has tried to assemble consistent data at 6 points in
time for 15 of the largest global economies (accounting for 64% of global
GDP) on 4 key variables (national income, transport volumes, carbon in-
tensity in transport, and traffic fatalities). Four limitations need to be
highlighted. First, there is no data on international travel and trade,
meaning that all data relates to national levels of activity. However,
the inclusion of international data would increase the carbon intensity
and the transport volumes by between 5 and 10%, and these levels are
increasing over time. The inclusion of international data would have lit-
tle impact on transport related fatalities. Secondly, the transport and
carbon measures used have combined passenger and freight movement
into one composite measure (cpkm). This gives an overall picture, but
the relationships between passenger and freight transport is likely to
vary between countries and over time. Thirdly, discrete points in time
have been taken with the use of five (five year) time periods and the
most recent two years (2010–2012) to give the overall timeline for
analysis. Such simplification results in greater clarity, and in the ability
to identify changes over time and between countries, but it does not
necessarily identify the key events that might influence any of the eco-
nomic, environmental or social factors considered. Finally, the data has
been assembled from World Bank and the United Nations to give a con-
sistency in reporting and definitions used, but it is accepted that the
quality of data used will be variable.
Given these limitations, we would conclude that this analysis pro-
vides a basis from which more detailed research can take place. It is ac-
knowledged that transport has proved to be one of the most difficult
sectors to make more sustainable, as it is growing so fast and as it is nec-
essary to support economies and lifestyles. Yet through combining mea-
sures of economic (e.g. income), environmental (e.g. carbon) and social
(e.g. fatalities) wellbeing, it has been possible to identify positive trends
in decoupling transport at the national level, as measured through rela-
tive decoupling. The much harder objective of an absolute decoupling is
only just beginning to take place, but this must be seen as the primary
objective in moving towards sustainability in the transport sector.
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the ACU
University of Oxford Fellowship and CBMM Technology Suisse SA,
which funded this work when the first author visited Oxford University
as a Distinguished Visiting Scholar in February-March 2014, and the In-
stitute of Advanced Studies of the University of Birmingham, which en-
abled follow-up meetings while the first author visited the University of
Birmingham as a Distinguished Visiting Fellow in June 2015.
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