2.

Under Pressure: Mastering Decision-Making in Demanding Circumstances

Facts-based decision making = rational or analytical decision making, involves gathering and
analysing relevant data, facts, and information to make an informed choice. It follows a logical and
systematic process, where decisions are made based on objective evidence and empirical
observations.

Intuition-based decision making relies on instinct, gut feelings, and personal judgment rather than
a structured analysis of data. It is an unconscious and automatic process, often driven by past
experiences and tacit knowledge. Intuitive decisions are made quickly, without explicitly
considering detailed facts or information.

The hybrid decision making approach combines elements of both facts-based and intuition-based
decision making. In this approach, decision makers use objective data and analysis as a foundation,
but they also incorporate their gut feelings or intuitive insights into the final decision-making
process.

QUIZ 1

1. The team gathers market research data, conducts customer surveys, and analyses financial
projections They review historical sales data, competitive analysis, and industry trends to make an
informed decision. They rely on factual information and quantitative analysis to determine if the
product meets predefined success criteria and aligns with the company's strategic goals. Your
product is going to be launched late next year. What kind of decision-making are you going to be
making?
Select one: Facts-Based Decision-Making

2. In the project, you need to hire an executive. You have conducted interviews and reviewed the
candidates' résumés. All the tests and psychology tests have been done. Three sets of interviews
(with various managers and directors) have been done. You have two candidates that are equal in
the tests, etc. How would you select the final candidate? The teams have some history in recruiting
successful candidates that have gone on to make significant contributions to the company.
Select one: Intuition-Based Decision-Making

3. You need to assess the potential market demand, profitability, and feasibility of a new product.
The team conducts market research and gathers relevant data on customer preferences, market
trends, and competitive landscape. Halfway through the project, research data comes back with
negative results. Some of the Marketing team have seen these types of results before.
How would you move this forward in terms of decision-making? Your CEO needs an answer before
the weekend.
Select one: Hybrid Decision-Making
Decision Analysis Methods

Quantitative methods
- involve the use of numerical data and mathematical models to analyze and make decisions.
- useful for leaders in terms of making decisions and making them in an appropriate way with the
right kind of data.
- provide a structured and objective approach allowing for precise calculations and statistical
insights
- Testing hypotheses are suitable for testing and finding causal relationships statistically between
data.
- Quantitative methods also help us to make predictions, measure, and quantify generalize
findings.
- The quantitative methods we focus on here are decision trees, Bayes analysis, and decision
matrices.

Decision trees
• graphical representations of decisions and their potential consequences.
• they map out various scenarios, probabilities, and outcomes.
• Aiding and identifying the optimal path based on calculated expected values appropriate when
there are multiple decision points and uncertain outcomes.

Decision Tree Pros:

• provides a visual representation of complex decisions, making it easier to understand potential
outcomes.
• incorporates probabilities, helping evaluation of risk.
• useful for quantifying expected values and comparing different courses of action.

Decision tree cons,

• can become intricate and challenging to manage for highly complex scenarios.
• requires accurate data for probabilities which might not always be available.
• might oversimplify certain real world complexities.

Bays analysis
• utilizes probability theory to update beliefs as new information becomes available.
• useful in situations where you have prior knowledge and want to incorporate new data to refine
your decision making

bays analysis Pros:

• integrates prior knowledge with new data.
• For more refined predictions, it's useful in updating beliefs and making decisions based on
evolving information.
• It can provide insights into uncertainties and likelihoods.

Bays, analysis cons:

• it relies on accurate prior probabilities which might be difficult to estimate.
• It could be computationally intensive for complex situations.
• The interpretation of results might require solid understanding of probability theory.
Decision matrices i
• involve creating a table with criteria and alternatives, assigning weights to the criteria, and
evaluating alternatives against those criteria.
• it's a quantitative way to compare options objectively, making it suitable for complex decisions
with multiple factors.

Decision matrix Pros:

• provides a structured framework for evaluating and comparing alternatives.
• allows for the consideration of multiple criteria and their relative importances.
• it can objectively quantify and rank different options based on specific factors.

Decision matrix cons:

• requires assigning weights to criteria which might be subjective.
• might not capture qualitative aspects that are not easily quantifiable.
• can be time consuming to construct for a large number of alternatives and criteria for decision
trees.

They're suitable for complex decisions involving multiple sequential choices and uncertain
outcomes, such as financial investments or project management. For bays analysis, they're
appropriate when you have prior knowledge and want to incorporate new data to make more
accurate predictions. For example, in diagnoses for decision matrices, they are effective for
comparing alternatives when multiple criteria need consideration, such as choosing a supplier or
selecting a project.

Qualitative methods
- involve gathering non numerical data to gain insights into decisions.
- These methods are exploratory and help in understanding underlying motivations, emotions, and
perspectives.
- can use when we're exploring new areas, understanding complex phenomena, capturing emotions
and perspectives.
- can use to generate hypotheses and gain insights, exploring new cases, individuals, and rich
insights on opinion.
- The qualitative methods we're going to focus on here are SWOT, TOWS analysis, Disney
Brainstorming, and Fishbone analysis.

The SWOT analysis

• identifies internal and external factors affecting a decision.

The TOWS matrix

• extends the Swat analysis by suggesting strategies to capitalize on strengths and mitigate
weaknesses.
• It's a valuable way of strategic planning and understanding the big picture.

The SWOT-TOWS analysis pros:

• it systematically assesses internal and external factors aiding in strategic planning.
• It helps in identifying potential opportunities for growth and it encourages cross functional
collaboration and comprehensive evaluation.
The SWOT cons:
• it might oversimplify complex situations. I
• t subjectively evaluate strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats can vary.
• It might not provide clear guidance on action steps.

Disney brainstorming=Disney method

• encourages creative thinking by adopting different roles, namely spectator, dreamer, realist, and
critic.
• It's qualitative nature helps explore diverse perspectives on a decision or idea.

Disney brainstorming Pros

• fosters creative thinking and encourages diverse perspectives.
• provides a structured approach to generate new and innovative ideas.
• balances different viewpoints by adopting different roles: Spectator, dreamer, realist critic,

Disney brainstorming cons

• The transition from creative ideation to practical implementation might require additional
analysis.
• It might be challenging to manage in large groups.
• Creative ideas generated during this phase might need further evaluation.

Fishbone analysis
• used when we want to come up with solutions that address the underlying causes of a problem,
rather than just addressing the symptoms.

Fishbone analysis pros:

• helps in identifying root causes of a problem
• encourages structured brainstorming, and it provides a visual representation of potential causes
across various dimensions.

Fishbone analysis cons

• can be subjective in determining the actual root causes.
• might not provide definitive solutions,
• it requires collaboration and shared understanding among team members to be effective.

- SWOT-TOWS analysis are useful for strategic decisions where understanding internal strengths
and weaknesses are important

- Disney brainstorming are helpful for generating creative ideas and exploring different
perspectives.

- Fishbone analysis are useful in situations where you want to uncover the underlying reasons
behind a specific problem or outcome.
QUIZ 2

Scenario 1: New Product Launch

Your company is planning to launch a new product in a competitive market. They have some
probabilities of some outcomes. The project teams want to assess the potential risks and rewards
associated with different marketing strategies. Which tools would you use to evaluate the situation?
Choose two.

Select one or more:

a. SWOT-TOWS
b. Disney Brainstorming
c. Bayes
d. Decision Trees
e. Decision Matrix

Scenario 2: Cost-Benefit Analysis for Expansion

You work in a manufacturing company in a consumer market and the company is considering
expanding its operations into a new region. The company needs to assess the potential costs and
benefits of this expansion within several different scenarios. You have some conditional probability
and data (including some outcomes) and can analyze historical data and market information. Which
tools would you use to evaluate the situation? Choose two.

Select one or more:

a. Decision Trees
b. Decision Matrix
c. Bayes
d. Disney Brainstorming
e. SWOT-TOWS

Scenario 3: Strategic Planning

You are a consultant and your client is a nonprofit organization and wants to develop a strategic
plan to achieve its mission and objectives. The company has micro and macro environmental
information. Which tools would you use to evaluate the situation? Choose two.

Select one or more:

a. Disney Brainstorming
b. SWOT-TOWS
c. Decision Trees
d. Bayes
e. Decision Matrix

Scenario 4: Innovation and Ideation

You are working in a technology company and they are looking for innovative/creative ideas for a
new products. They have talented innovative teams. Which tools would you use to evaluate the
situation? Choose two.

Select one or more:

a. Disney Brainstorming
b. Bayes
c. Decision Matrix
d. Decision Trees
e. SWOT-TOWS

Scenario 5: Risk Management

Your client is a financial institution and it want to assess the risks associated with its investment
portfolio. They have probability data and outcome forecasts of different scenarios. They would like
strategic solutions and have access to macro environmental data. They want to understand what
they need to invest in for the future. Which tools would you use to evaluate the situation? Choose
two.

Select one or more:

a. SWOT-TOWS
b. Decision Trees
c. Disney Brainstorming
d. Bayes
e. Decision Matrix

QUIZ 3.
Scene 1: A team meeting in a corporate office

[The team members, Mark, Emma, and Alex, are sitting at a conference table, looking frustrated and
overwhelmed. Sarah, the team leader, enters the room.]

Sarah: Good morning, team. I can see that we're facing multiple tasks and feeling overwhelmed.
Let's take a moment to regroup and prioritise our work. Mark, could you share the tasks you've been
working on?

Mark: Sure, Sarah. I've been trying to juggle multiple projects and deadlines, but it's becoming
challenging to meet all the expectations.What would you do in this situation?

Select one:

a. Prioritise and delegate

b. Maintain a calm and positive Attitude
c. Communicate clearly and frequently
Scene 2: A team meeting in a corporate office

[The work loads are still going up and Mark is now on holiday.]

Emma: Sarah, it's been quite stressful lately, and I'm finding it hard to stay positive amidst the
workload.What would you do in this situation to help Emma?

Select one:

a. Prioritise and delegate

b. Maintain a calm and positive attitude
c. Communicate clearly and frequently

Scene 3: A team meeting in a corporate office

[The team is back to full strength and they are starting to get back up to full speed. Due to some
changes to the products by the R&D department there is now some doubt about the specifications of
the product. ]

Alex: Sarah, I feel like our communication has been lacking lately. There's confusion about roles
and expectations.

What could you do to help the situation that Alex has referenced here?
Select one:

a. Communicate clearly and frequently

b. Prioritise and delegate
c. Maintain a calm and positive attitude

Scene 1: A shared office space

[The team members, Mark, Emma, and Alex, are sitting at their desks, visibly stressed and
overwhelmed. Sarah, the team leader, enters the room.]

Sarah: Good morning, team. I can see that we have a lot on our plates...

Mark: I've been struggling to meet all the deadlines and balance multiple projects simultaneously.
It's becoming overwhelming.Is there anything else you would add as the team leader?

Select one:
a. Collaborate and provide support
b. Take care of your well-being
c. Practise time management
Scene 2: A shared office space

[Alex used to do Emma’s job and Emma is frustrated about some of the tasks she has to do.]

Emma: I cannot do some of the complicated financial equations in the spreadsheet, it is really
frustrating! Alex did this job before and he never complained about this.

As the manager, what would you suggest?

Select one:
a. Take care of your well-being
b. Collaborate and provide support
c. Practise time management

Scene 3: A shared office space

[Sarah notices that some of the team members are visibly stressed and showing anxiety in their
behaviour.]

Alex: Sarah, it's been difficult to balance work and personal life lately. I often find myself
neglecting self-care and things like going to the gym have dropped off the list!

Emma: Yes, Alex. I agree. Taking care of your well-being is essential for maintaining productivity
and avoiding burnout.

[The team members express agreement and a sense of relief, realising that they are in the same
boat.]As Sarah, the team leader, what would you do?

Select one:
a. Practise time management
b. Take care of your well-being
c. Collaborate and provide support

Scene 3: A conference room

[Sarah, the team leader, is conducting a team meeting with Mark, Emma, and Alex.]

Sarah: Good morning, team. Lately, we've been facing several challenges that require us to seek
support and guidance from one another. Mark, I know you're working on a complex project. Are
there any roadblocks you've encountered?

Mark: Yes, Sarah. I've been struggling to find a solution for a particular issue. It's causing delays in
the project. How would you moderate Mark’s fears about the delays?
 Select one:
Practise resilience and adaptability
Seek support and guidance
Recognise achievements and milestones

Scene 3: A conference room

[In the last 6 months there have been several changes to the products and cost structures of the
products. These have been unexpected at times and caused some challenges.]

Emma: Sarah, sometimes unexpected changes or setbacks demotivate us. What would be your
advice for Emma?

Select one:
Practise resilience and adaptability
Seek support and guidance
Recognise achievements and milestones

Scene 3: A conference room

[In the last week the team have achieved and surpassed their sales goals and are on for a record
2023 in terms of their financials! They are also closing in on some important projects that will be
finished soon. ]

Alex: Sarah, sometimes it feels like our hard work goes unnoticed. How can we create a culture of
recognition within the team? We have been doing so well recently!What can Sarah do to console
Alex and help the situation?

Select one:
Recognise achievements and milestones
Practise resilience and adaptability
Seek support and guidance

Creative problem-solving is an approach that involves generating innovative and

unconventional solutions to challenges or issues. It goes beyond traditional methods and
encourages leaders to think outside the box, consider diverse perspectives, and explore
new angles.

Creative problem-solving involves reframing problems, identifying root causes, and

developing unique strategies that may involve combining di erent ideas, technologies, or
approaches. It emphasises exibility, adaptability, and a willingness to take risks to nd
e ective solutions.
ff
fl
ff
fi
Idea generation refers to the process of generating a variety of novel concepts,
concepts, or possibilities to address a speci c goal or challenge. They may be more
cognitively advanced ideas or more basic ideas.

Idea generation involves brainstorming, free-thinking, and exploring di erent angles to

come up with a wide range of ideas. Leaders encourage idea generation to stimulate
innovation, foster creativity, and identify potential opportunities. The goal is to cultivate an
environment where team members feel empowered to share their thoughts without
judgment and where ideas can be combined, re ned, and developed into actionable
strategies.

Disruptive thinking involves challenging existing norms, conventions, and established

practices to drive meaningful change and innovation. It encourages leaders to question
assumptions, identify opportunities for radical transformation, and envision new ways of
doing things. There may be a paradigm shift like digital images disrupting lm.

Disruptive thinking often leads to breakthrough solutions that reshape industries,

markets, and business models. It requires leaders to envision future scenarios, anticipate
emerging trends, and be open to embracing unconventional ideas that have the potential
to revolutionize traditional approaches. This method e ectively moves the company
employing the disruptive thinking away from competitors in the product space.

• Facts-based: Decision-making grounded in empirical evidence, data, and objective

information

◦ Strengths: Promotes objectivity, reliability, and evidence-driven choices

◦ Limitations: May overlook qualitative factors, susceptible to incomplete data

• Intuition-based: Relies on instinct, gut feelings, and personal judgment for

decision-making

◦ Strengths: Rapid decision-making, effective in familiar situations

◦ Limitations: Subject to bias, lacks objectivity and may lead to errors

• Hybrid: Combines elements of both facts and intuition-based approaches for

decision-making
◦ Strengths: Balances data-driven and intuitive insights, adaptable

◦ Limitations: Complex to manage, requires skill in integration, potential for

cognitive dissonance

• Strategic Decision-Making: Involves making decisions aligned with long-term

organisational goals and overall strategy, ensuring sustained growth
fi
fi
ff
ff
fi
 • Risk-based Decision-Making: Considers and manages potential risks in the
decision-making process to enhance robustness and minimise negative outcomes

• Innovation-driven Decision-Making: Incorporates creativity and adaptability into

decision processes, fostering an environment that encourages novel and forward-
thinking solutions

• Decision Matrix: A systematic approach that evaluates and prioritizes options

based on a set of criteria, often represented in a matrix format

• SWOT-TOWS: SWOT analysis assesses internal Strengths and Weaknesses, and

external Opportunities and Threats. TOWS matrix then derives strategies from
these factors

• Disney Brainstorming: A creative decision-making technique involving three roles

- Dreamer, Realist, and Critic - to explore ideas from different perspectives

• Decision Trees: A graphical representation of decision options and their potential

outcomes, useful for evaluating complex decisions with multiple variables

• Bayes: A probabilistic approach that involves updating beliefs based on new

evidence, particularly useful in decision-making under uncertainty and with evolving
information

FINAL QUIZ ( с черными набрала 70 из 100)

1. A food manufacturing company faces growing environmental concerns about its

packaging materials. They need to nd a sustainable and eco-friendly alternative without
compromising the product's quality. What approach should the company adopt to solve
this problem?

a. Embrace creative problem-solving to explore various eco-friendly packaging

materials and select the most sustainable and practical solution.

b. Ignore the environmental concerns and continue using the existing packaging materials.

c. Conduct a limited search for alternatives and implement the rst viable option found.

d. Disregard the sustainability aspect and focus solely on reducing packaging costs.

2. Choose correct answer without explanation: The Hybrid decision-making approach is

most effective in situations where:

a. There is a lack of data and information.

b. Time is limited – you have the data and quick decisions are required.
c. The decision-maker prefers to rely solely on intuition.
d.Objective data is readily available and reliable.
fi
fi
3. A marketing team is tasked with launching a new advertising campaign for a consumer
product. They have collected market research data and customer feedback. However, due
to time constraints, they need to make a quick decision on the campaign's messaging and
creative elements. What type of decision-making approach would be most suitable in this
situation?

a. Facts-based
b. Intuition-based
c. Hybrid-based
d. None of the above

4. A manager who makes decisions based on gut feelings and personal experiences is
using which approach to decision-making?

a. Facts-based
b. Intuition-based
c. Hybrid
d. Neither of the above

5. What are mitigation strategies primarily aimed at achieving in risk management?

a. Reducing the impact or likelihood of potential risks

b. Ensuring there are no consequences of risk-taking
c. Eliminating all risks from a decision-making process
d. Accepting and embracing all potential risks

6. How does innovation-driven decision-making impact an organization's competitive

advantage?

a. It can create a unique and sustainable advantage over competitors.

b. It does not have any signi cant impact on a company's competitive position.
c. It may lead to short-term gains but is not sustainable in the long run.
d. It has no relation to a company's competitive advantage.

7. A manufacturing company is considering investing heavily in new technology to

automate its production processes. The management team has gathered data on the
potential cost savings, ef ciency gains, and projected return on investment (ROI). What
type of decision-making approach is most suitable in this scenario?

a. Facts-based
b. Intuition-based
c. Hybrid-based
d. None of the above

8. A manager is leading a team through a crisis situation that requires quick decision-
making and adaptability. Which skill set is critical for the manager to effectively handle this
demanding situation?
fi
fi
a. Data analysis and technical knowledge
b. Flexibility and adaptability
c. Collective decision-making
d. Rigid adherence to standard procedures

9. When faced with uncertainty in a decision-making scenario, what should be the primary
focus?

a. Avoiding decision-making until uncertainty is eliminated

b. Placing complete trust in luck
c. Relying solely on intuition and gut feelings
d. Assessing and managing potential risks associated with different outcomes

10. When facing challenges in the workplace, what is the bene t of seeking support and
guidance?

a. Seeking support may undermine individual credibility and expertise in the workplace.
b. Seeking support is a sign of weakness.
c. Seeking support and guidance is not appropriate in professional settings.
d. Support and guidance can provide fresh perspectives and solutions.

11. A team is facing unexpected setbacks and changes in project requirements. What skill
is crucial for the team to overcome these challenges?

a. Overemphasizing routine
b. Resilience and adaptability
c. Rigid adherence to the original plan
d. Prioritizing individual comfort zones

12. In order to effectively manage demanding situations, why is it important to take care of
your well-being?

a. Well-being enhances focus and mental clarity.

b. Well-being is irrelevant as long as the work gets done within the deadlines.
c. Well-being has no impact on decision-making.
d. Well-being is only relevant for personal life, not professional life.

13. Which type of decision-making approach combines the strengths of both Facts and
Intuition?

a. Rational decision-making
b. Emotional decision-making
c. Hybrid decision-making
d. Insctinctual decision-making

14. Which type of decision-making relies primarily on veri able data and objective
information?
fi
fi
 a. Intuition
b. Facts
c. Hybrid
d. None of the above

15. A start-up is evaluating two potential markets for its innovative product: Market A has a
larger customer base, but Market B has higher pro t margins and lower competition. The
management team is looking to make an informed decision that balances market potential
and pro tability. The marketing director has some experience in another company with
these markets. Which approach to decision-making would be most effective for this
scenario?

a. Facts-based
b. Intuition-based
c. Hybrid-based
d. None of the above

16. In an innovation-driven decision-making process, what is the role of risk-taking?

a. Avoiding all risks to ensure a safe and predictable outcome

b. Relying solely on past successes and avoiding experimentation
c. Implementing standard procedures to minimize risks
d. Taking calculated risks to explore new possibilities and opportunities

17. In a high-pressure work environment, a team faces tight deadlines and frequent
changes in requirements. Which skill set is essential for the team to navigate these
demanding situations successfully?

a. Strictly adhering to a predetermined plan without exibility

b. Relying on past experiences and gut feelings
c. Using data and facts for decision-making
d. Effective communication and teamwork

18. In Hybrid decision-making, what role does intuition play?

a. it is used to verify the facts and data.

b. It is used to support the decision once it is made.
c. It is not involved in the decision-making process.
d. It is the sole basis for making decisions.

19. What is the primary focus of decision-making that is innovation-driven?

a. Emphasizing ef ciency and cost-cutting measures

b. Fostering creativity, new ideas, and disruptive thinking
c. Following strict rules and procedures
d. Maintaining the status quo and adhering to traditional methods
fi
fi
fi
fl
20. What does risk-taking in the context of decision-making refer to?

a. Complete reliance on intuition

b. The certainty of a positive outcome
c. The absence of uncertainty in a situation
d. The quanti cation and assessment of potential losses and their probabilities
fi