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Risk Credit Scores

EMN Exchange Visit


26-02-2015
Vincent Stulen & Davide Forcella
Risk management in MF-organizations
Factors that influence credit risk
Credit-scoring: pros and cons
EMN Idea-lab

Qredits risk-model
Risk scoring micro-entrepreneurs
Agenda Internal and external data sources
From scoring to rating

What is done in MF Europe?


What has been done so far?
Idea-lab survey
Discussion
Risk scoring

The Business
• Financials
• Collateral

• Business activities
• Market conditions • Expected Loss (EL)
• Probability of Default (PD)
• Loss Given Default (LGD)
• Exposure At Default (EAD)
Risk scoring MF entrepreneurs

The Business The entrepreneur


• Financials • Experience / competencies
• Collateral • Personal finances
• Business activities • Financial guarantees
• Market conditions • Debt history
Risk scoring MF entrepreneurs

The Business The entrepreneur


• Financials • Experience / competencies
• Collateral • Personal finances
• Business activities • Financial guarantees
• Market conditions • Debt history

Qredits: 70% Starters


Information Asymmetry

Critical information for a risk assessment is only


known by the entrepreneur

Qredits’ approach: Visit all customers

(Cost-)Efficiency-problem: How to pre-select


potentially successful entrepreneurs?
Connecting to external data-sources in MicroNET
2014: Collection of external data

2015: Update risk-model with new


Qredits riskmodel data sources

2015: Add new sources?


- Information from business
bankaccounts?
- Information directly from
accounting software?
Age of the entrepreneur

Predictive analytics
Marital status

Predictive analytics
Basic data
(gender / age / maritial status / address /
age of the company)
Add ‘hard’ data
Financials / guarantees / market conditions
Add ‘soft data’
Personal interpretation of the entrepreneur,
skills, competencies, ambition etc.
Add external sources
(Debt history / payments scores / fraud
checks / bankruptcy score)

Information from business bankaccounts?


From scoring to rating

- Univariate and multivariate analysis

- Segmentation
(e.g. starter vs existing / age of the
company)

- Purpose based scorecards


(e.g. initial risk assessment /
monitoring risks / provisioning
policy)
Questions?
For more information visit:
www.qredits.com

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