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  • Công thức tính XS - Bài tập - Bai giảng

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    19 04 20 Thùy Linh
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    Công thức tính XS_Bài tập_ Bai giảng

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    4 views11 pages

    Công thức tính XS - Bài tập - Bai giảng

    Uploaded by

    19 04 20 Thùy Linh

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 11
    BAI 2. CONG THUC TINH XAC SUAT 2.1 Céng thite nhn xc suat 2.1.1 Xéc suat c6 diéu kién ‘Trong mét phép thir, xét hai bién 06 bat ky A va B véi P(B) > 0. Xac suat ca bién cb A sau khi bién 06 B dé xay ra duoc goi li xie suat cita A voi diéu tinh i P(AB) P(AIB) == (AIB) PC) Vi dy 1. + Tron binh 66 5 qua edu tring ¥8 3 qua edu den. Lay ngau nbién Hin lot ra 2 é durge cau tring. duge cau tring”. Giai: Goi A thay trong bé bai gém 52 1a bai thi cé 26 la bai mau den nén P(B)=26 / 52, ding thoi c6 2 P(AB) 2. 1 PB) 26°13 Nhén xét. Khitinh P(4|B) véi diéu kign B 4a xay ra, ngbia la ta 44 han ché khéng gian mau Q xuéng cén B va han ché A xuéng con ANB. Tinh chat: 1) O< PB) <1,vAca: 2) néu Ac C thi P(AIB) = P(CIB); 3) P(A|B) = 1 - P(A|B) 2.1.2 Cong thire nhiin xc suat a) Sw déc lip ctia hai bién c Trong mét phép thir, hai bién cé A va B duge goi la déc lap néu B cé xiy ra hay khong ciing khong anh hong dén kha nding xay rad va nguge lai Chi A va B doc lap véi nhau thi ee ep bién 06 : AvaB,AvaB , Ava B cing doc lap voi nhau. b) Cong this Trong mét phép thir, ta c6: Néu A va B la hai lc lip thi. ~P(AB) = P(A)P(B) Néu A va B 1a hai bién c6 khong dée lap (phu thuge) thi P(AB) = P(B)P(A|B) = P(A)P(B|A) . Néu » bién 6 A; (i= 1...) phy thude thi P(AyAp An) = P(As)P(Ag|Ay) «= P(AnlAs ‘it drge con bai at", Bl ‘rat durge 1a bai mau den”. Ta con at den nén P(AB)= 2/52. Do do P(A|B). nhin xae suit GV: Bai A béng den hong. Giai Goi A 1a bién 06 “ San pham lay ra lan thir nhat 1a béng dén t6t” B la bién c6 “ San pham lay ra lin thir hai 1a bong dén hong” 2S P(AB) = P(A)P(B/A)==.==— = 0,238 (AB) = P(A)P(B/ A) 76°21 Vi dy 2: Hai xa thi, mdi nguoi bin mot phat dan vao bia, Xac suat trang dich cia ngwoi thir nhat 1a 0.8 va ctia ngudi thir hai 18 0.7. Tinh xc suat c6 ding mét phat tring. A.0,34; B.0,38; C.0,37; 8 Vi dy 3. Cé hai nguoi A va B cing a3 véi xée sudt mua dirge tuong img 1a 0,8 va 0,7. Biét ring co nguéi mua durge, xde suat dé 6 phiéu mua duge la: Ea pear Vi du 4. Mét sinh viéndée lip thi Toan va Ly . Cho biét xac suat diu hai mén dé lan hot 1a 0.9; 0.8. Hay tinh cée xae suit sau da h vin dé rat ed hai mon b) Sinh vién d6 chi du Tan: ¢) Sinh vién d6 dau ea hai mén. ) Sinh vién d6 chi dau mot mon. e) Sinh vin do khéng qua m6t mén. f) Sinh vién do dau it nhat m6t mén. Dap s6: a) (1 — 0.91 - 0.8); b)0.9C1 ~ 0.8); 6) 0,9.0,8: d) 0.9(1 — 0,8) + (1 - 0,990.8: e) (a) +d) = 1 —(e); 1 Ga). 2.2 Céng thie cng xac suat Xt mét phép thir, ta c6 1g thite cOng xac suat sau Néu 4 va Bla hai bién e6 tay ¥ thi P(A +B) = P(A) + P(B) — P(AB) Mé rng: Voi 3 bign 6 4.2,¢ bat ky thi P(A+B4+C)= P(A)+ P(B)+ P(C) ~P(AB)~ PLAC) P(BC) + P(ABC) Néu 4 va B la hai bién c6 xung khiie thi P(A + B) = P(A) + P(B) Dic bit P(A) = 1 — P(A); P(A) = P(AB) + P(AB) Vi dy 1: Co cau chat Iugng san pham cla mot nha may nhur sau: San pham loai I chiém 40% ; sin pham loai II chiém 50% , con lai Ia phé pham. Lay ngau nhién mét sin phim cia nha may. Tinh xéc suét san phim ldy ra thude logi I howe Jogi IL Giai: Goi A 1a bign ¢6 san phim lay ra thude logi I hoe loai IL Goi 4, 1A bién ¢4 san pham lay ra thude logi | Goi A, 1a bién c4 sin pham lay ra thudc loai II Ta 6: A= A, +4, 4, xung khée véi nhau nén ta ¢6: P(A)= P(A +4,)=P(A)+ P(A) =0,440,5=0,9 Vi dy 2. M6t e6ng ty quing céo sin phém théng qua hai phuong tign Google va Zalo. Dirge biét c6 38% biét théng tin vé sin pham qua Google, 57% biét théng tin vé sin phim qua Zalo va 28% biét thong tin vé san pham qua Google va Zalo. Hoi ng: n mot khich hang, xe sudt khach hang nay biét théng tin vé san pham théng qua it nhat m6t trong hai phwrong tién trén la GV: Bai Thi A067 —_B.0,33 €.0,72 D. 0,05 Vi dy 3. M6t l6p 6 100 sinh vién, trong 46 c6 40 sinh vién gidi ngoai ngi, 30 sinh vién gidi tin hoc, 20 sinh vién gidi ca ngosi ngit va tin hoe. Sinh vién nao gidi it nhat mot trong hai mén 88 diroe thém diém trong két qui hoe tip eta hoc ky. Chon ngau nhién mét sinh vién trong lop. Tinh xac suat dé sinh vién dé diroe cong thém diém Gidé: Goi A 1a bién c6 lay ra mét sinh vién ma sinh vién dé dutge cng thém diém. Goi Bla bién cé sinh vién lay ra hoe gidi ngoai ngit, C 1a bién cé sinh vién lay ra hoe gidi tin hoc. Ta ce B+Cva 0,3; P(C) = 22 = 0,4 100 30 P(By=30 = T00 P(A) = P(B+C) = PB) + P(C)-P(BC) = 0,3+ 0,4-0,2= 0,5. Vi dy 4. Métnhém e6 30 nha dau tw ede loai, trong dé e6 13 nha dau tw ving, 17 nha du tu chimg khoan va 10 nha diu tu ca vang lan chtmg khoan. M6t déi tie gap ngdu nhién 1 nha dau tu trong nhém. Tim xac sudt dé ngudi dé gap duoc nha dau tw vang hay ching khoan? 2.3 Céng thite Bernoulli 2.3.1 Cong thie Bernoulli - Thye hign n phép thir dée lap. phép thir bién od A hoge A xay ra Khi dé xac suat dé trong n phép thir n6i trén bién 6 A xudt hién ding k Min, ky higu la P(A) —py"* voi k= 0.1.2 “p*g’* trong dé P(A) = p khéng déi - duge tinh theo céng thire Bemoulli.P,(A) = C! Néu ditg=1- p> P,(A)= 1t ngw6i di ban hang 6 8 noi khéc nhau. Xéc suat bin dirge & mai noi déu bing 0,6. dtngudi db: a) Bin duge 6 diing 3 noi b) Khong bin durge 6 noi nio ©) Ban durge 6 it nhat 1 noi 4) Ban tir 3 dén 5 noi Giai Kiém tra didn kign céng thite Bemoulli: - Ban hang 8 noi khée nhau la 8 phép thir doc lap > n~ 8. - Trong mdi mét phép thit, chi e6 ding hai trrémg hop Ia howic A: ” ban dirge hang” hose: A Khang ban diroc hang” -P(A)= p= 0.6. Nhw kign e6ng thie Bemoulli, a) Ban duge 6 diing 3 noi => k= 3 Do dd P(A) =C30,6°(1 - 0,6)" = 0.1238. b) Khong bin durge 6 noi nao => k=0 nén P,(A)=C20,6"C1 - 0,6)*°= 0.00065. GV: Bai Thi Lan Anh c) Ban duge 6 it nhat 1 noi > k= 1,2,...8.B : “Ban duge 6 it nhat 1 noi * Caich P(B) = P(A) +P, (A) +... + BA) =0,99935. Céch 2: B : “Ban durge 6 it nhét 1 noi “=> B “Khong bin duege & noi nao” P(B) = 1- P(B) = 1- P,(A)= 1- 0,00065~ 0,99935, Chi y: Xéc suat dé trong n phép thir bién c6 A xuat hién ding k lin (0

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