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Foreign Exchange Market
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Foreign exchange means the money of a foreign country;
that is, foreign currency bank balances, banknotes, checks
and drafts.
A foreign exchange transaction is an agreement between a
buyer and a seller that a fixed amount of one currency will
be delivered for some other currency at a specified date.
The foreign exchange market spans the globe, with prices
moving and currencies trading somewhere every hour of
every business day.
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Circadian Rhythms of the FX Market
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The foreign exchange Market is the mechanism by which
participants:
transfer purchasing power between countries;
obtain or provide credit for international trade
transactions, and
minimize exposure to the risks of exchange rate changes.
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FX Market Participants
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The Structure of the Foreign Exchange Market
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Foreign Exchange Trading Activity Around the
World
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Top 20 Dealers in the Foreign Exchange Market
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Spot Exchange Rates
General notation
S (j/k) = x : 1 unit of currency k equals x units of
currency j
unit price of currency k in terms of currency j
S (j/k) = 1/S (k/j)
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Spot Exchange Rates
R
quotations in one of two ways
Direct quotation
the U.S. dollar equivalent
Indirect Quotation
the price of a U.S. dollar in the foreign currency
e.g. “ you get 100 yen to the dollar”
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Direct and Indirect, European
and American Quotes
In the U.S. In Britain
$/£
$/£
£/$
£/$
In Thailand In the European Union
Thai Baht/e
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Most interbank quotations around the world are stated in
European terms.
The two most important exceptions are quotes for the
euro and U.K. pound sterling which are both normally
quoted in American terms.
Besides, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are
quoted in American terms.
American terms are also utilized in quoting rates for most
foreign currency options and futures, as well as in retail
markets that deal with tourists.
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Exchange Rates
USD equiv USD equiv Currency per USD Currency per USD
Country Friday Thursday Friday Thursday
(today) (yesterday) (today) (yesterday)
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What is the direct quote for British pound?
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Rates of Appreciation and Depreciation
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The Bid-Ask Spread
The bid price is the price a dealer is willing to pay you for
something.
The ask price is the amount the dealer wants you to pay
for the thing.
The bid-ask spread is the difference between the bid and
ask prices.
A dealer could offer
bid price of $1.25 per e
ask price of $1.26 per e
The bid-ask spread represents the dealer’s expected profit.
For major currencies in large transaction sizes, bid-ask
spreads are within 5 “pips”. Pip is a trader jargon for the
fourth decimal point in a currency quote (Percentage In
Point).
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big small figure
figure
Bid Ask
S($/£) 1.9072 1.9077
S(£/$) .5242 .5243
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Cross Rates
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Suppose that S($/e) = 1.50
i.e. $1.50 = e1.00
and that S(¥/e) = 50
i.e. e1.00 = ¥50
What must be the $/¥ cross rate?
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Formula
S ($/k) S (j/$)
S (j/k) = =
S ($/j) S (k/$)
S ($/j) S (k/$)
S (k/j) = =
S ($/k) S (j/$)
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1 What is the cross-exchange rate between Euro and British
pound S (e/£) from American term quotations?
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Triangular Arbitrage
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$
Barclays
Credit Lyonnais
S(¥/$)=120
S(£/$)=1.50
¥ Credit Agricole
£
S(¥/£)=85
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First calculate any implied cross rate to see if any arbitrage
exists.
What is the implied S(¥/£) cross rate?
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$
Barclays
Credit Lyonnais
S(¥/$)=120
3 1 S(£/$)=1.50
2
¥ Credit Agricole
£
S(¥/£)=85
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As easy as 1-2-3:
1 Sell our $ for £;
2 Sell our £ for ¥;
3 Sell those ¥ for $.
Sell $100,000 for £ at S(£/$)=1.50
receive £150,000
Sell £150,000 for ¥ at S(¥/£)=85
receive ¥12,750,000
Sell ¥12,750,000 for $ at S(¥/$)=120
receive $ 106,250
Profit per round trip = $106, 250 − $100, 000 = $6, 250
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$
Barclays
Credit Lyonnais
S(¥/$)=120
2 3 S(£/$)=1.50
1
¥ Credit Agricole
£
S(¥/£)=85
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➢ If we went counter clockwise we would be the source of
arbitrage profits not the recipient!
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➢ Do we still do clockwise if S(¥/£)=75 instead of
S(¥/£)=85 in order to make money?
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➢ How about counter clockwise?
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Forward Rate Quotations
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USD equiv USD equiv Currency per USD Currency per USD
Country Friday Thursday Friday Thursday
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Clearly the market participants expect that the pound will be
worth less in dollars in six months.
Forward premium and forward discount refer to the currency
that is in the denominator of the exchange rate.
Forward premium occurs when the price of the currency
contract is higher then the spot rate
Forward discount occurs when the price of the currency
contract is lower then the spot rate
The interest rate differential implied by forward premium
or discount
% per annum (p.a.) forward premium or discount of an N day
forward rate
forward - spot 360
= × × 100%
spot N days
where N is the number of days in the forward contract.
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➢ For example, suppose the e has S($/e) = 1.25 and
F180 ($/e) = 1.30
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Point quotations
Spot 1.9072-1.9077
One-Month 32-30
Three-Month 57-54
Six-Month 145-138
✌ Rules:
add to the spot bid-ask rates if the former point is less
than the latter
subtract from the spot bid-ask rates if the former point is
greater than the latter
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Restate the following one-, three-, and six-month forward
point bid-ask quotes in outright forward terms.
Spot 1.9072-1.9077
Forward Point Outright Forward bid-ask
Quotations Quotations spreads
1-Month 32-30
3-Month 57-54
6-Month 145-138
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Forward Cross Exchange Rates
It’s just an “delayed” example of the spot cross rate
discussed above.
In generic terms
FN ($/k) FN (j/$)
FN (j/k) = =
FN ($/j) FN (k/$)
and
FN ($/j) FN (k/$)
FN (k/j) = =
FN ($/k) FN (j/$)
The forward pound-Canadian dollar cross rate
GBP1.00 = USD1.8904
USD1.00 = CAD1.2412
GBP1.00 = CAD2.3464
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Currency Symbols
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Long and Short Positions
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Payoff Profiles
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A forward contract in 180 days
You can use the direct or indirect quote: F180 (¥/$) =
105 or F180 ($/¥) = .009524
When the short entered into this forward contract, he
agreed to sell ¥ in 180 days at F180 (¥/$) = 105
If, in 180 days, S180 (¥/$) = 120, the short will make a
profit by buying ¥ at S180 (¥/$) = 120 and delivering ¥
at F180 (¥/$) = 105.
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Since this is a zero-sum game, the long position payoff is
the opposite of the short.
The long in this forward contract agreed to BUY ¥ in 180
days at F180 (¥/$) = 105
If, in 180 days, S180 (¥/$)=120, the long will lose by
having to buy ¥ at F180 (¥/$) = 105 and delivering ¥ at
S180 (¥/$) = 120
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Practice Problem
The current spot exchange rate is $1.55/£ and the
three-month forward rate is $1.50/£. Based on your analysis
of the exchange rate, you are confident that the spot exchange
rate will be $1.52/£ in three months. Assume that you would
like to buy or sell £1,000,000.
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❶. What actions do you need to take to speculate in the
forward market? What is the expected dollar profit from
speculation?
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❷. What would be your speculative profit in dollar terms if
the spot exchange rate actually turns out to be $1.46/£?
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