Professional Documents
Culture Documents
UNIT -III
Fiscal Policy: nature and significance – public revenues – expenditure- debt, development
activities allocation of funds – critical analysis of the recent fiscal policy of Government of
India. Balance of Payments: Nature – structure – major components – causes for
disequilibrium in balance of payments – correction measures.
Fiscal policy
Introduction: One major function of the government is to stabilize the economy (prevent unemployment
or inflation). Stabilization can be achieved in part by manipulating the public budget-government spending
and tax collections-to increase output and employment or to reduce inflation.
Meaning:
Fiscal Policy = Revenue + Expenditure Policy by Government of India and related to ‘Development
Policy’ of the Nation.
Fiscal policy refers to the government policy regarding taxation, public expenditure, and public
debt, Tax receipts.
Definition:
“Fiscal policy deals with the taxation and expenditure decisions of the government. These include,
tax policy, expenditure policy, investment or disinvestment strategies and debt or surplus
management”.
- Paul Samuelson
“Government uses its expenditure and revenue program to produce desirable effects and avoid
undesirable effects on National Income, production and employment”.
- Arthur Smithies
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Distribution of income
Price stabilization
Economic development activities Allocatio
n of
funds
OBJECTIVES OF FISCAL POLICY
The objectives of fiscal policy differ from country to country according to the level of economic
growth and ideological milieu. The basic objective of fiscal policy in developed economies is to
maintain the conditions of full employment, economic stability and stabilize the rate of economic
growth. In case of underdeveloped economy the main purpose if fiscal policy is to accelerate the
rate of capital formation and investment.
Full employment
Price stability
Economic stability
Full employment: the first and foremost objective of fiscal policy in developing economy is to
achieve and maintain the full employment in the economy. Why because the economic gains from
full employment are enormous. Full employment yields individuals security. Security promotes
progress. Full employment contributes human dignity and weakens non functional discrimination,
is essential to protect democratic society.
Price stability: fiscal policy should be supplemented with monetary measures to make them more
effective. Moreover, efforts should be made to increase production especially essential
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commodities. In short, fiscal policy should try to remove the bottlenecks and structural rigidities
which cause imbalance in various sectors of the economy. Thus, fiscal policy measures as well as
monetary measures go side by side to achieve the objectives of economic growth and stability.
Accelerate of the rate of economic growth: in developing economy, fiscal policy should aim at
achieving an accelerated rate of economic growth. But a high rate of economic growth cannot be
achieved and maintained without stability in the economy. Therefore, fiscal measures such as
taxation, public borrowings and deficit financing etc. should be used properly. Sothat, production,
consumption, and distribution may not be adversely affected. It should promote the economy and
help in raising national income and per capita income.
Optimum allocation of resources: fiscal measures, taxation and public expenditure programmes
which affects the allocation of resources in various occupations and sectors. National income and
per capita income is very low in under developed countries. It is true. Therefore, financing
development plans posses a severe threat to the government. In order to gear the economy, the
government pushes the growth of social infrastructure through fiscal measures. Public
expenditure, subsidies and incentives can favorably influence the allocation of resources in the
desired channels. Tax exemption and tax concession may help in attracting resources towards the
favored sectors.
Equitable distribution of income and wealth: generally, in underdeveloped countries income and
wealth are in few hands. That’s why private ownership dominates the entire structure of the
economy. Extreme inequalities create political and social discontentment generates economic
instability. Fiscal policy of the government can bridge the gap between the incomes of different
sections of the society. And reduce the inequalities through distributive justice.
Economic stability: fiscal policy plays a leading role in maintaining economic stability in the face of
external and internal forces. The instability is caused by external forces, is corrected by a separate
policy that is none other than “Tariff policy” rather than aggregative fiscal policy.
Capital formation and growth: capital occupies central place in any development activity in a
country. Fiscal policy can be adopted as a crucial tool for the promotion of the highest possible
rate of capital formation.
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Sources of Public
Revenues
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Tax Revenue:
Taxes are the first and foremost sources of public revenue. Taxes are compulsory payments to
government without expecting direct benefit or return by the tax payer. Taxes collected by government
are used to provide common benefits to all mostly in form of public welfare services. Taxes do not
guarantee any direct benefit for person who pays the tax. It is not based on direct quidpro quo
principle.0018
Characteristics of Tax:
In 2006-07 (India related), the tax revenue contributed about 81% of the total revenue receipts of the
Central Government, whereas non-tax revenue receipts contributed the remaining 19%.
Classification of Tax
1) Direct Tax: Direct taxes are levied on wealth and income of individuals or organizations. These
taxes are personal income tax, corporate tax, and gift or wealth tax. The impact of direct taxes is on
the same person. Direct taxes are developing in nature and the tax rate increases along with the tax
base.
i) Personal Tax: Personal income tax is levied on only about 3.5% of India's more than one
billion citizens. The states levy profession tax on salaried employees and persons carrying on
profession or trade rates that vary by state. An individual's income is categorized into different
employment income, business or professional income, income from real estate, capital gains, and
other income. Ordinarily residents of India are taxed on worldwide income. Persons not
ordinarily resident generally do not pay tax on income earned outside India unless it is
derived from a business/profession controlled in India, or the income is accrued or first
received in India or is deemed to have accrued in India.
ii) Net Wealth Tax: All individuals and other specified persons must pay a 1 % wealth tax on
the aggregate value of net wealth exceeding INR 3 million of non-productive assets such as land;
buildings not used as factories; commercial property not used for business or profession;
residential accommodation for employees earning over INR 5,00,000 per annum; gold, silver, platinum
and other precious metals, gems and ornaments; and cars aircraft and yachts.
iii) Capital Tax: India does not levy capital duty, although a registration duty is levied.
2) Indirect Tax: Indirect taxes are imposed on goods & commodities. These taxes include sales tax,
excise duty, service tax, customs duty, VAT, etc. The impact of indirect taxes may be implied on
different people. Indirect taxes are not progressive but regressive in nature. Here, the burden to
pay duties is indirectly or directly bearded by the consumer irrespective of their income level.
Indirect taxes are of utmost importance for countries that are developing and face low income
levels.
i) Value Added Tax: All Indian states, including union territories, have moved to the VAT
regime a broad-based " consumption-type destination-based VAT" driven by the invoice tax credit
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method that applies to almost all types of movable goods and specified intangible goods, barring
a few exempted goods that vary from state to state. The standard VAT rate is 12.5%, with reduced
rates of 5% and 1% in most states. The reduced rates apply to the sale of agricultural and
industrial inputs, capital goods and medicines, precious metals, etc. A refund of input tax is
available for exporters.
ii) Real Estate Tax: Owners of real estate are liable to various taxes imposed by the state and
municipal authorities. These taxes vary from state to state.
iii) Stamp Duty: This is levied on instruments recording certain transactions, at rates depending on
the nature of instrument and whether the instrument is to be stamped under the Indian Stamp Act, 1899
or under a State Stamp Law. Stamp duty rates for an instrument vary from state to state.
iv) Customs Duty: These are levied by the Central Government generally on the import of goods
into India, although certain exported goods also are liable to customs duties. The basis of
valuation in respect of imports and exports is the transaction value, except where the value is not
available or has to be established because of the relationship between the parties.
The rate of basic customs duty is l0%. However, the aggregate customs duty, including additional
duties and the education cess, is 26.85%. Several products attract the basic customs duty of 7.5%,
which works out to an effective duty of 23.89%. The rates vary depending on the classification of me
goods under me Customs Tariff Act, 1975. Safeguard and anti-dumping duties also are levied on
specified goods. The clearance of goods from customs is based on self-assessment of bills of entries for
imports.
Non-Tax Revenue
The revenue obtained by the government from sources over than tax is called non-tax revenue. The
sources of non-tax revenue are:
Fees: these are important source revenue for the government. A fee is charged by public
authorities for rendering a service to the citizens. Unlike tax, there is no compulsion involved in
case of fees. The government provides certain services and charges certain fees for them. For
example, fees are charged for issuing of passports, driving licenses, etc.
2) Fines or Penalties: These are imposed as a form of punishment for breach of law or non-
fulfillment or certain conditions or for failure to observe some regulations. Like taxes, fines are
compulsory payments without quidpro quo. But while taxes are generally imposed to collect
revenue. Fines are imposed as a form of punishment or to prevent people from breaking the law.
They are not expected to be a major source of revenue to the government.
3) Surplus from Public Enterprises: The government also gets revenue by way of surplus
from public enterprises. In India, the government has set-up several public sector enterprises to
provide public goods and services. Some of the public sector enterprises to make a good
amount of profits. The profits or dividends which the government gets can be utilized for public
expenditure There is some sort of quid pro quo in the case of surplus from public enterprises,
This is because, the public gets goods and services, and the government gets prices, and
consequently profits from selling such goods and services.
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5) Grants and Gifts: Gifts are voluntary contributions by individuals or institutions to the
government. Gifts are significant source of revenue during war and emergency. A grant from one
government to another is an important source of ' revenue in the modern days. The government
at the centre provides grants to state governments and the state governments provide grants to the
local government to carry out their functions. Grants from foreign countries are known as foreign
aid. Developing countries receive military aid, food aid, technological aid, etc., from developed
countries.
6) Deficit Financing: Deficit means an excess of public expenditure over public revenue. This excess
may be met by borrowings from the market, borrowings from abroad, by the central bank creating
currency. In case of borrowing from abroad there cannot be compulsion for the lenders, but in
case of internal borrowings there may be compulsion. The government may force various
Productive Expenditure
Unproductive Expenditure
individuals, firms and institutions to lend to it at a much lower rate than the market would have
offered.
Public Expenditure:
Introduction:
Government expenditure refers to public expenditure, i.e., government spending It is incurred by
central, state and local governments of a country. Public expenditure can be defined as, “The
expenditure incurred by public authorities like central, state and local governments to satisfy the
collective social wants of the people is known as public expenditure”.
Throughout the 19th century, most governments followed laissez faire economic policies and their
functions were only restricted to defending aggression and maintaining law and order. The size of
public expenditure was very small. But now the expenditure of governments all over has
significantly increased In the early 20th century, John Maynard Keynes advocated the role of
public expenditure in determination of level of income and its distribution.
In developing countries, public expenditure policy not only accelerates economic growth and
promotes employment opportunities but also plays a useful role in reducing poverty and
inequalities in income distribution.
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benefits the poorer classes of die community at the expense of the rich.
Increasing Public Sector Investment: Government has been undertaking huge amount of
investment for economic development in the country.
Increasing Defense Expenditure: Modern war has become very expensive with the use of atomic
weapons, surface to surface missiles, etc. A huge expenditure is incurred on maintaining army and
defense preparations.
Increasing Interest Expenditure: Interest payments on internal and external loans have
constituted around 25 per cent of the total public expenditure. There has been considerable rise
in the growth of interest payments over the years. The increase in the interest liability is the
outcome of rising fiscal deficits and recourse to market borrowings to meet the deficits.
Increasing Subsidy Expenditure: Government is spending huge amountf of money as subsidies on
various items like food, domestic LPG, kerosene supplied through public distribution system, fertilizers,
export promotion, etc.
Increasing Development and Social Expenditure: India has accepted the principle of welfare
state `and consequently, huge public expenditure on welfare activities is essential. The government
has to make large provisions for public health, education and hospitals. Their establishment,
maintenance and improvement require huge public expenditure.
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Public debt:
Meaning and Definition
Public debt is an instrument of resource mobilization by the modern government. The revenue raised
through taxation and other sources is not sufficient to meet the increased expenditure of the government
Revenue from taxation cannot be raised beyond, a certain limit while, the deficit financing becomes
inflationary when it crosses the safe limit. Hence the government has to resort to public debt to
accelerate the process of development.
Public debt denotes borrowing by the government from the people, banks, financial institution, and so
on. To sum-'up, public debt is the debt incurred by the government in mobilizing resources in the form
of loans, which are to be repaid at a future date with interest
According to J.K. Mehta, “Public debt carries with it the obligation on the part of the government
to pay money back to me individuals from whom it has been obtained" .
According to Philip E. Taylor, “The debt is in the form of promises by the treasury to pay to me
holders of these promises a principal sum and in most cases interest on that principal”.
According to R. Musgrave and P. Musgrave, “Public borrowing involves withdrawal made in return
for the government's promise to repay at a future date and to pay interest at the interim”.
1) Internal Debt: The internal debt is a major component of public debt of the Central Government of
India.
The following are the various components of internal debt:
i) Market Loan: These have a maturity period of 12 months or more at the time of issue and
is generally interest bearing. The government issues such loans almost every year. These
loans are raised in the ` open market by sale of securities or otherwise. Total market
loans as at the end of March 2005 are estimated at 7, 58,999 /- crores.
ii) Bonds: The Government borrows funds by way of issue of bonds. The government
obtains funds through the issue of bonds such as National Rum! Development Bonds,
Central Investment Bonds. The bonds are issued at different maturity periods, which may
range from 3 years to 10 years period. They provide medium-term to long-term funds to the
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government.
iii) Treasury Bills: A major source of short-term funds for the government is obtained by issue
of treasury bills. At present, government issues 91 day and 364 day treasury bills. The
treasury bills are purchased by commercial banks and others. The amount of debt as a
result of treasury bills decreased from 64,760/- crore in 1997 to 7,184/- crores as at the
end of March 2006.
iv) Special Floating and Other Loans: These represent India's contribution towards share
capital of international financial institutions like lMF, World Bank, International
Development Agency and so on. These are non-negotiable and non-interest bearing
securities The Government of India is liable to pay the amount at the call of these institutions.
Accordingly, it is a short-term debt upon the Government of India.
v) Special Securities issued by RBI: The government obtains temporary loans for a period
of maximum 12 months from RBI and issues special securities, which are non-negotiable
and non-interest bearing. Such securities provide short-term funds to the Government.'
vi) Ways and Mean Advances: The Government of India obtains ways and means
advances from the Reserve Bank of India to meet its short period expenditure. These debts
are purely temporary in nature and are usually repaid within three months.
vii) Securities against Small Savings: Since 1999-2000, under the new accounting system,
national small savings have been converted into the Central Government securities. As a
result there has been a sharp increase in internal debt and corresponding decline in small
savings.
External Debt: This refers to the liabilities of me Indian Government, public sector, private
sector and financial institutions to overseas parties. The Government of India has raised foreign
loans from U.S.A., 'U.K., France, U.S.S.R, Japan, etc.
The external debt can be broadly divided into two
groups:
Long-Term Debt
i) Multilateral borrowings, and
ii) Bilateral borrowings.
For example, Loans from IMF, World Bank, etc.
Short-Term Debt: It is to be noted that the overall external debt of India comprises of
government debt and non-government debt. The government debt is owed by government authorities,
both Central and State Governments; whereas the non-government debt is owed by private parties in
India, In terms of composition, India's external debt has shifted in favour of private debt over the last
decade.
Other Internal Liabilities: The government does not include liabilities under public debt. However,
the government is liable to make repayment of these liabilities. There following liabilities that comes
under it:
Small Savings
a) In recent years small savings have increased due to rising money income in the economy.
b) Recently the Government of India launched a number of small savings instruments. These include
9% Relief Bonds 1987, Kisan Vikas Patras, Indira Vikas Patras, etc.
c) The outstanding amount of small savings increased from 2,209/- crores in 1971 to 4,18,110/- crores at
the end of March, 2006.
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MEASURES TO REDUCE
PUBLIC DEBT
Following are the measures to be undertaken to reduce and repay public debt.
Reduction in Primary Deficit: Corrective action with respect to the growing internal debt must be
carried out in two stages. In the first stage, action must be directed toward slowing down the pace of
growth of the debt ratio or reducing it to a reasonable level. In the second stage, attempts must be
made to contain most revenue expenditures within the revenues raised by the Government so that
Government's net borrowing is used only for productive purposes.
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There are some necessary reforms which should be followed under fiscal policy are as follows:
1) Government undertook path of fiscal consolidation with mid-year course correction in 2012-
13. Fiscal policy 2014-15 should be designed to meet the macroeconomic challenges faced by
India in an uncertain international economic situation.
2) Government should focus on fiscal consolidation process and take some measures to reduce
the fiscal deficit.
3) Government should focus on the creation of capital assets from revenue expenditure; it can be done
through expenditure management and revenue augmentation.
4) A progressive reduction in debt-GDP ratio of the Government will ease the interest burden and
allow more space for the government to spend particularly on infrastructure development without
taking recourse to additional borrowings.
5) With re-prioritization of expenditure towards developmental side and curtailing the growth
in non developmental expenditure, the total expenditure can be easily brought down.
6) The moderation in growth coupled with sticky inflation at much higher than the comfort level
necessitated a change of stance in fiscal policy of the government. The process of fiscal
consolidation which resumed had to be paused once again. For this, government has come up
with a revised fiscal roadmap with gradually reducing fiscal deficit in corning year.
7) Government is determined to bring the deficit down to a more sustainable level and at the same
time re- orient government expenditure towards priority sectors like health, education, irrigation
with added focus on infrastructure and investment related activities.
Development Activities and Allocation of Funds
Funds for carrying out various developmental activities in the District are allocated through the State
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budget. In addition, funds are also released directly to the implementing agencies for various
socio-economic and developmental programmes sponsored by Government of India and State
Government,
Allocation of funds is the first major function of fiscal policy is to determine exactly how funds
will be allocated. This is closely related to the issues of taxation and spending, because the
allocation of funds depends upon the ,collection of taxes and the government using that revenue
for specific purposes. The national budget determines how funds are allocated This means that a
specific amount of f unds is set aside for purposes specifically laid out by the government.
This has a direct economic impact on the country.
Development activities seem to indicate economic growth and that is. in fact, its overall purpose.
However, fiscal policy is far more complicated than determining how much the government wdl tax
citizens one year and then determining how that money will be spent. True economic growth
occurs when various projects are financed and carried-out using borrowed funds, This sterns from the
belief that the private sector cannot grow the economy by itself. Instead, some government input and
influence are needed. Borrowing funds for this economic growth is one way in which the
government brings about development. Some of the development activities under fiscal policy 2013-
14 are as follows:
I) GDP Growth: Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant {2004-2005) prices for Ql of 2013-14 is
estimated
at, 13.71 lac crane, as against ?13.14 lac crane in Ql of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.4
per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
2) Growth in Economic Ac6vities: The economic activities which registered significant growth
in Ql of 2013-14 over Ql of 2012-13 are financing, insurance, real estate and business
services' at 8.9% and community, social and personal services' at 9.4%.
The estimated growth rates in other economic activities are - 3.9% in trade, hotels,
transport and communication', 3.7 per cent in electricity, gas and water supply', 2.8 per cent in
construction, 2.7 per cent in agriculture, forestry and fishing', (-) 1.2 per cent in manufacturing
and(-) 2.8 per cent in mining and quarrying' during this period.
3) Growth in Agricultural Sector: According to the information furnished by the Department of
Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from
agriculture in Ql of 2013-14, the production of coarse cereals and pulses during the Rabi season
of agriculture year 2012-13 (which ended in June 2013) recorded growth rates of 9.8 per cent, 13,7
per cent respectively while rice and wheat declined by 7.0 per cent and 2.6 per cent over the
production in the corresponding season of previous agriculture year. Among the commercial crops,
the production of oilseeds increased by 11.4 per cent during the Rabi season of 2012-13.
4) Growth in Industrial Production: According. to the latest estimates available on the Index of
Industrial Production (IIP)the index of ruining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth
rates of (-) 4.5%, (-) 1.2% and 3.5%, respectively during Ql of 2013-14, as compared to the growth
rates of (- ) 1.6 per cent, (-) 0.8 per cent and 6.4 per cent in these sectors during Ql of 2012-13.
5) Growth in Construc6on Sector: The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of
cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rate of 3.3 per cent and 0.2 per
cent, during Ql of 201314.
6) Growth in Services Sectors: Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely,
the net tone kilometers have shown growth rate of 1.8 per cent but passenger kilometers declined
by 3.4 per cent during Ql of 2013-14, In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the
civil aviation registered growth rates of 3.4 per cent, while the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo
handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation registered the decline of 8.1 per cent,
1.0 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively during Ql of 2013-14 over Ql of 2012-13.
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The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates
of 13.8 per cent, and 13.7 per cent, respectively as on June 2013. It may be mentioned that the
growth of these two indicators - viz,. credits and deposits as on June 2012 were 16.5% and 13.5%
respectively.
Balance of payment
Balance of payments (BOP) meaning:
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BOP statistics are published monthly by RBI in India. These are analyzed by
bankers, businessmen, and economists’ foreign exchange traders etc. to know
international economic performance of the country.
-- and payments made by residents* for goods imported and services received in
addition to capital transferred to non-residents and foreigners.
Residents mean
Definition:
“A record of all transactions made between one particular country and all other
countries during a specified period of time.”
-- Reserve Bank of
India
Objective:
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Its main objective is to represent the economic position of a country, whether its
currency is rising or falling in its external value.
IMPORTANCE OF B.O.P
Records all the transactions that create demand for and supply of a
currency.
Each transaction is entered on the credit and debit side of statement. But
balance of payments accounting differs from business accounting in one
respect. In business accounting, debit (-) are shown on the left side
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Invisible exports and imports: All current transactions include both visible
and invisible items. The export and import of goods are known as visible items.
Whereas invisible items include 121 items these are classified into 8 heads.
Such as travel, transportation, insurance, investment income, government not
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Invisible exports include the sale of services to the foreigners like insurance,
tourism, transportation, banking, financial services, etc. similarly, invisible
exports also include interest and dividends received from the foreign countries.
These are debit side.
Invisible imports include the purchase of services from the foreigners like
insurance, tourism, transportation, banking, financial services, payment of
interest and dividend to the foreigners. These items are placed on credit side.
-- It comprises of
i) Private capital (both long and short-term) : Long- term with maturity
period of more than one year and short-term with maturity of one year or less.
ii) Banking capital covers the external financial assets and liabilities of
commercial and co-operative banks who deal in foreign exchange.
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iii) Official capital is RBI’s holding of foreign currency, SDRs etc. on behalf of
Govt. of India in the form of loan miscellaneous receipts, payments etc.
-- Credits here are money received from official sale of foreign currencies and
reserves. Similarly, debits comprise of official purchases of foreign currencies and
other assets.
Demand and supply: the demand and supply trend define the cost of domestic
products to be sold in the
international market.
FACTORS AFFECTING BOP
Cost and availability: the cost
and availability of raw materials,
COST OF PRODUCTION
intermediate goods, and other DEMAND AND SUPPLY
inputs.
EXCHANGE RATE
COST AND AVAILABILITY
Exchange rate movements: for MOVEMENTS
nations with low exchange rate
values, balance of trade tends to DOMESTIC BUSINESS TRADE AGREEMENTS
remain unfavourable.
EXTERNAL PRESURES PRICE
Domestic business: sound and
domestic policies are required to
boost production and international trade. Some countries like the US provide
subsidies to local manufacturers for exported goods and services.
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External pressures: many countries export items that face heavy competition in
international market. This results in market segmentation and low pricing.
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1. Structural Disequilibrium: -
Structural disequilibrium is caused by structural changes in the economy
affecting demand and supply relations in commodity and factor markets. Some of
the structural disequilibria are as follows: -
a. A shift in demand due to changes in tastes, fashions, income etc. would
decrease or increase the demand for imported goods thereby causing
disequilibrium in BOP.
b. If foreign demand for a country's products declines due to new and cheaper
substitutes abroad, then the country's exports will decline causing a deficit.
c. Changes in the rate of international capital movements may also cause
structural Disequilibrium.
d. If supply is affected due to crop failure, shortage of raw-materials, strikes,
political instability etc., then there would be deficit in BOP.
e. A war or natural calamities also result in structural changes which may
affect not only goods
but also factors of production causing disequilibrium in BOP.
f. Institutional changes that take place within and outside the country may
result in BOP
disequilibrium. For Eg. if a trading block imposes additional import duties on
products imported in member countries of the block, then the exports of
exporting country would be restricted or reduced. This may worsen the BOP
position of exporting country.
2. Cyclical Disequilibrium: -
Economic activities are subject to business cycles, which normally have
four phases Boom or Prosperity, Recession, Depression and Recovery. During
boom period, imports may increase considerably due to increase in demand for
imported goods. During recession and depression, imports may be reduced due to
fall in demand on account of
reduced income. During
recession exports may increase
due to fall in prices. During boom TYPES OF DISEQULIBRIUM
period, a country may face deficit
in BOP on account of increased Structural disequilibrium Cyclical disequilibrium
imports.
short - run long - term
Cyclical disequilibrium in
disequilibrium disequilibrium
BOP may occur because
a. Trade cycles follow different Monetary disequilibrium Technological
paths and patterns in different disequilibrium
countries.
b. Income elasticities of demand
for imports in different countries are not identical.
c. Price elasticities of demand for imports differ in different countries.
3. Short - Run Disequilibrium: -
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This disequilibrium occurs for a short period of one or two years. Such
BOP disequilibrium is temporary in nature. Short - run disequilibrium arises due
to unexpected contingencies like failure of rains or favourable monsoons, strikes,
industrial peace or unrest etc. Imports may increase exports or exports may
increase imports in a year due to these reasons and causes a temporary
disequilibrium exists.
International borrowing or lending for a short - period would cause short -
run disequilibrium in balance of payments of a country.
Short term disequilibrium can be corrected through short - term borrowings.
If short - run disequilibrium occurs repeatedly it may pave way for long - run
disequilibrium.
4. Long - Run I Secular Disequilibrium: -
Long run or fundamental disequilibrium refers to a persistent deficit or a
surplus in the balance of payments of a country. It is also known as secular
disequilibrium. The causes of long - term disequilibrium are
a. Continuous increase in demand for imports due to increasing population.
b. Constant price changes - mostly inflation which affects exports on continuous
basis.
c. Decline in demand for exports due to technological improvements in importing
countries, and as
such the importing countries depend less on imports.
The long run disequilibrium can be corrected by making constant efforts to
increase exports and to reduce imports.
5. Monetary Disequilibrium
Monetary disequilibrium takes place on account of inflation or deflation.
Due to inflation, prices of products in domestic market rises, which makes
exports expensive. Such a situation may affect BOP equilibrium. Inflation also
results in increase in money income with people, which in turn may
increase demand for imported goods. As a result, imports may turn BOP position
in disequilibrium.
6. Exchange Rate Fluctuations: -
A high degree of fluctuation in exchange rate may affect the BOP position.
For Eg. if Indian Rupee gets appreciated against dollar, then Indian exporters will
receive lower amounts of foreign exchange, whereas, there will be more outflow of
foreign exchange on account of higher imports. Such a situation will adversely
affect BOP position. But, if domestic currency depreciates against foreign
currency, then the BOP position may have positive impact.
Causes of BOP Disequilibrium
Any disequilibrium in the balance of payment is the result of imbalance between
receipts and payments for imports and exports. Normally, the term disequilibrium
is interpreted from a negative angle and therefore, it implies deficit in BOP.
The disequilibrium in BOP is caused due to various factors. Some of them are
I. Import - Related Causes
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The rise in imports has been the most important factor responsible for
large BOP deficits. The causes of rapid expansion of imports are :-
1. Population Growth
Population Growth may increase the demand for imported goods such as
food items and non-food items, to meet their growing needs. Thus, increase in
imports may lead to BOP disequilibrium.
2. Development Programme
Increase in development programmes by developing countries may
require import of capital goods, raw materials and technology. As development is
a continuous process, imports of these items continue for a long time landing the
developing countries in BOP deficit.
3. Imports of Essential Items
Countries which do not have enough supply of essential items like Crude
oil or Capital equipments are required to import them. Again, due to natural
calamities government may resort to heavy imports, which adversely affect the
BOP position.
4. Reduction of Import Duties
When import duties are reduced, imports become cheaper as such
imports increases. This increases the deficit in BOP position.
5. Inflation
Inflation in domestic markets may increase the demand for imported
goods, provided the imported goods are available at lower prices than in domestic
markets.
6. Demonstration Effect
An increase in income coupled with awareness of higher living standard
of foreigners, induce people at home to imitate the foreigners. Thus, when people
become victims of demonstration effect, their propensity to import increases.
II. Export Related Causes: -
Even though export earnings have increased but they have not been
sufficient enough to meet the rising imports. Exports may reduce without a
corresponding decline in imports. Following are the causes for decrease in exports
1. Increase In Population: -
Goods which were earlier exported may be consumed by rising
population. This reduces the export earnings of the country leading to BOP
disequilibrium.
2. Inflation: -
When there is inflation in domestic market, prices of export goods
increases. This reduces the demand of export goods which in turn results in trade
deficit.
3. Appreciation of Currency: -
Appreciation of domestic currency against foreign currencies results in
lower foreign exchange to exporters. This demotivates the exporters.
4. Discovery Of Substitutes: -
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With technological development new substitutes have come up. Like plastic
for rubber, synthetic fiber for cotton etc. This may reduce the demand for raw
material requirement.
5. Technological Development: -
Technological Development in importing countries may reduce their
imports. This can be possible when they start manufacturing goods which they
were exporting earlier. This will have an adverse effect on exporting countries.
6. Protectionist Trade Policy: -
Protectionist trade policy of importing country would encourage domestic
producers by giving them incentives, whereas, the imports would be discouraged
by imposing high duties. This will affect exports.
III. Other Causes: -
1. Flight of Capital
Due to speculative reasons, countries may lose foreign exchange or gold
stocks. Investors may also withdraw their investments, which in turn puts
pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
2. Globalization
Globalization and the rules of WTO have brought a liberal and open
environment in global trade. It has positive as well as negative effects on imports,
exports and investments. Poor countries are unable to cope up with this new
environment. Ultimately, they become loser and their BOP is adversely affected.
3. Cyclical Transmission
International trade is also affected by Business cycles. Recession or
depression in one or more developed countries may affect the rest of the world.
The negative effects of trade cycle (low income, low demand, etc.) are transmitted
from one country to another. For eg. The current financial crisis in U.S.A. is
affecting the rest of the world.
4. Structural Adjustments
Many countries in recent years are undergoing structural changes. Their
economies are being liberalized. As a result, investment, income and other
variables are changing resulting in changes in exports and imports.
5. Political factors
The existence of political instability may result in disrupting the productive
apparatus of the country causing a decline in exports and increase in imports.
Likewise, payment of war expenses may also seriously affect disequilibrium in the
country’s BOP. Thus, political factors may also produce serious disequilibrium in
the country’s BOPs.
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I. Monetary Measures: -
1) Monetary Policy: -
The monetary policy is concerned with money supply and credit in the
economy. The Central Bank may expand or contract the money supply in the
economy through appropriate measures which will affect the prices.
A. Inflation: -
If in the country there is inflation, the Central Bank through its monetary
policy will make an attempt to reduce inflation. The Central Bank will adopt tight
monetary policy. Money supply will be controlled by increase in Bank Rate, Cash
Reserve Ratio, Statutory Ratio etc.
The monetary policy measures may reduce money supply, and encourage
people to save more, which would reduce inflation. If inflation is reduced, the
prices of domestic market will decrease and also that of export goods. In foreign
markets there will be more demand for export goods, which would correct BOP
disequilibrium.
B. Deflation :-
During deflation the
Central Bank of the country
may adopt easy monetary
policy. It will try to increase
money supply and credit in the EXCHANGE
economy, which would RATE POLICY POLICY
increase investment. More FISCAL MONETARY
investment leads to more POLICY NON-
2) Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy is government's policy on income and expenditure.
Government incurs development and non - development expenditure, it gets
income through taxation and non - tax sources. Depending upon the situation
governments expenditure may be increased or decreased.
a) Inflation
During inflation the government may adopt easy fiscal policy. The tax
rates for corporate sector may be reduced, which would encourage more
production and distribution including exports. Increased exports will bring more
foreign exchange there by making the BOP position favorable.
b) Deflation
During deflation the government would adopt restrictive fiscal policy. It
may impose additional taxes on consumers or may introduce tax saving schemes.
This may reduce the consumption of citizens, which in turn may enable more
export surplus.
To restrict imports the government may also impose additional tariffs or
customs duties which may improve the BOP position.
3) Exchange Rate Policy
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b) Depreciation
Depreciation like devaluation lowers the value of domestic currency or
increases the value of foreign currency. Depreciation of a country's currency
takes place in free or competitive foreign exchange market due to market forces.
Depreciation and devaluation have the same effect on exchange rate. If there is
high demand for foreign currency than its supply, it will appreciate and vice
versa. However, in several countries the system of managed flexibility is followed.
If there is more demand for foreign exchange, the central bank will release the
foreign currency in the market from its reserves so as to reduce the appreciation
of foreign currency. If there is less demand for foreign exchange, it will purchase
the foreign currency from market so as to reduce the depreciation of foreign
country and appreciation of domestic currency.
Due to devaluation and depreciation of domestic currency, the exports
become cheaper and imports become expensive. This helps to increase exports.
I) Non-Monetary / General Measures:
A deficit country along with monetary measures may adopt the following
non-monetary measures too, which will either restrict imports or promote
exports.
1) Tariffs: -
Tariffs refer to duties on imports to restrict imports. Tariff is a fiscal device
which may be used to correct an adverse balance of payments. The imposition of
import duties will raise the prices of imports. This will lead to a reduction in
demand for imports thereby improving the balance of payments position.
2) Quotas: -
Under Quota System, the government may fix and permit the maximum
quantity or value of a commodity to be imported during a given period. By
restricting imports through quota system, the deficit is reduced and the balance
of payments position is improved.
3) Export Promotion: -
The government may introduce a number of export promotion measures to
encourage exporters to export more so as to earn valuable foreign exchange,
which in turn would improve BOP Situation. Some of the incentives are
Subsidies, Tax Concessions, Grants, Octroi refund, Excise exemption, Duty
Drawback, Marketing facilities etc.
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4) Import Substitution
Governments, especially, that of the developing countries may encourage
import substitution so as to restrict imports and save valuable foreign exchange.
The government may encourage domestic producers to produce goods which were
earlier imported. The domestic producers may be given several incentives such as
Tax holiday, Cash Subsidy, Assistance in Research & Development, Providing
technical assistance, Providing Scarce inputs etc.
CONCLUSION: -
From the above measures it is clear that more exports with import
substitution based on economic strength of the country are the real effective
solutions to correct the disequilibrium in the balance of payments.
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