t Tháng Nhu cầu thực tế (At) 𝑿_𝒊^

𝟐
1 Jan 90 1
2 Feb 106 4
3 Mar 152 9
4 Apr 244 16
5 May 302 25
6 Jun 274 36
7 Jul 162 49
8 Aug 194 64
9 Sep 312 81
10 Oct 359 100
11 Nov 215 121
12 Dec 126 144
13 Jan 94 169
14 Feb 125 196
15 Mar 147 225
16 Apr 273 256
17 May 349 289
18 Jun 310 324
19 Jul 178 361
20 Aug 182 400
21 Sep 323 441
22 Oct 400 484
23 Nov 252 529
24 Dec 179 576
25 Jan 131 625
26 Feb 142 676
27 Mar 186 729
28 Apr 307 784
29 May 398 841
30 Jun 348 900
31 Jul 217 961
32 Aug 228 1024
33 Sep 384 1089
34 Oct 460 1156
35 Nov 273 1225
36 Dec 206 1296
37 Jan 152 1369
38 Feb 141 1444
39 Mar 194 1521
 40 Apr 353 1600
41 May 449 1681
42 Jun 415 1764
43 Jul 236 1849
44 Aug 253 1936
45 Sep 420 2025
46 Oct 504 2116
47 Nov 343 2209
48 Dec 231 2304
Tổng 1176 12319 38024
Trung Bình 24.5 256.645833333333

Dự báo Sai số
t Month Y dự báo SUM
49 Jan 338.41 SUMSQ
50 Feb 341.74 # Obs.
51 Mar 345.08 Avg. error
52 Apr 348.42 MSE
53 May 351.75 RMSE
54 Jun 355.09 MAD
55 Jul 358.43 MAPE
56 Aug 361.76
57 Sep 365.10
58 Oct 368.44
59 Nov 371.78
60 Dec 375.11
𝑿_𝒊 𝒀_𝒊 𝒀 ̂_𝒊 (𝒀_𝒊−𝒀 ̂_𝒊 )^𝟐
Dự báo Sai số (et) |At-Ft| |(At-Ft)/At| Y^2
90 178.22 -88.22 88.22363946 0.9802627 8100
212 181.56 -75.56 75.56075409 0.7128373 11236
456 184.90 -32.90 32.89786872 0.2164333 23104
976 188.23 55.77 55.76501664 0.2285452 59536
1510 191.57 110.43 110.427902 0.3656553 91204
1644 194.91 79.09 79.09078738 0.2886525 75076
1134 198.25 -36.25 36.24632725 0.2237428 26244
1552 201.58 -7.58 7.583441887 0.0390899 37636
2808 204.92 107.08 107.0794435 0.3432033 97344
3590 208.26 150.74 150.7423288 0.4198951 128881
2365 211.59 3.41 3.405214213 0.0158382 46225
1512 214.93 -88.93 88.93190042 0.7058087 15876
1222 218.27 -124.27 124.2690151 1.3220108 8836
1750 221.61 -96.61 96.60612969 0.772849 15625
2205 224.94 -77.94 77.94324432 0.5302262 21609
4368 228.28 44.72 44.71964105 0.1638082 74529
5933 231.62 117.38 117.3825264 0.3363396 121801
5580 234.95 75.05 75.04541178 0.242082 96100
3382 238.29 -60.29 60.29170285 0.3387174 31684
3640 241.63 -59.63 59.62881748 0.3276309 33124
6783 244.97 78.03 78.03406788 0.2415915 104329
8800 248.30 151.70 151.6969532 0.3792424 160000
5796 251.64 0.36 0.359838616 0.0014279 63504
4296 254.98 -75.98 75.97727602 0.4244541 32041
3275 258.31 -127.31 127.3143906 0.9718656 17161
3692 261.65 -119.65 119.6515053 0.8426162 20164
5022 264.99 -78.99 78.98861992 0.42467 34596
8596 268.33 38.67 38.67426545 0.1259748 94249
11542 271.66 126.34 126.3371508 0.31743 158404
10440 275.00 73.00 73.00003618 0.2097702 121104
6727 278.34 -61.34 61.33707845 0.2826593 47089
7296 281.67 -53.67 53.67419308 0.2354131 51984
12672 285.01 98.99 98.98869229 0.2577831 147456
15640 288.35 171.65 171.6515777 0.3731556 211600
9555 291.69 -18.69 18.68553698 0.0684452 74529
7416 295.02 -89.02 89.02265161 0.4321488 42436
5624 298.36 -146.36 146.3597662 0.9628932 23104
5358 301.70 -160.70 160.6968809 1.1396942 19881
7566 305.03 -111.03 111.0339955 0.5723402 37636
 14120 308.37 44.63 44.62888985 0.1264275 124609
18409 311.71 137.29 137.2917752 0.3057723 201601
17430 315.05 99.95 99.95466059 0.2408546 172225
10148 318.38 -82.38 82.38245405 0.3490782 55696
11132 321.72 -68.72 68.71956868 0.2716188 64009
18900 325.06 94.94 94.94331669 0.2260555 176400
23184 328.39 175.61 175.6062021 0.348425 254016
16121 331.73 11.27 11.26908742 0.0328545 117649
11088 335.07 -104.07 104.0680272 0.4505109 53361
332557

n= 48

Phương trình hồi quy:

BETA_1 3.337114633
BETA_0 174.8865248

Sai số Sai số tiêu chuẩn ước lượng SEE 97.845827006

(0.00) Sai số tiêu chuẩn hệ số hồi quy
440,395.07 BETA_0 28.692845883
48.00 BETA_1 1.0194486232
4.37
9,174.90 Critical value của alpha (0.05) 2.0128955989
95.79 Khoảng tin cậy BETA_0 117.13082163
85.25 Khoảng tin cậy BETA_1 1.2850709862
39.98
t của BETA_0 6.0951264834
t của BETA_1 3.2734505273

p-value của BETA_0 (t-test) 2.084955E-07

p-value của BETA_1 (t-test) 0.0020210015

Sai lệch được giải thích SSE 440395

Sai lệch không giải thích SSR 102588
R-Square 0.1889339324
Adjusted R Square 0.1713020614

MS_Regression 102587.90949
MS_Residuals 9573.8058625
F 10.715478355
F của alpha (0.05) 4.0517486921
p-value (F-test) 0.0020210015
(𝒀_𝒊−𝒀 ̂_𝒊 )^𝟐 (𝒀 ̂_𝒊−¯𝒀)^𝟐

7783.41 6150.04
5709.43 5637.77
1082.27 5147.77
3109.74 4680.04
12194.32 4234.59
6255.35 3811.41
1313.80 3410.50
57.51 3031.87
11466.01 2675.50
22723.25 2341.41
11.60 2029.60
7908.88 1740.05
15442.79 1472.78
9332.74 1227.78
6075.15 1005.05
1999.85 804.60
13778.66 626.42
5631.81 470.51
3635.09 336.87
3555.60 225.51
6089.32 136.42
23011.97 69.60
0.13 25.06
5772.55 2.78
16208.95 2.78
14316.48 25.06
6239.20 69.60
1495.70 136.42
15961.08 225.51
5329.01 336.87
3762.24 470.51
2880.92 626.42
9798.76 804.60
29464.26 1005.05
349.15 1227.78
7925.03 1472.78
21421.18 1740.05
25823.49 2029.60
12328.55 2341.41
 1991.74 2675.50
18849.03 3031.87
9990.93 3410.50
6786.87 3811.41
4722.38 4234.59
9014.23 4680.04
30837.54 5147.77
126.99 5637.77
10830.15 6150.04
440395.06967361 102587.9094931

232.64222802016
5.3891582799822