Statistical Fallacies 139
with Antarctica, and it s cold outside. It's obvious that the new president caused
Lesson 24
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
Posthoc ergopropter hoc is a Latin phrase which means: after this,therefore,
because of this." Apparently, this name was given to this fallacy back
when Latin was popular among fallacy detectives. The name has stuck, so we
aren't changing it now.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc is concluding that since A happened before B,
then A must have caused B.
Suppose you live where we do, and it is the middle of February. As usual,
it is thirty-two degrees below zero with six and a halffeet ofsnow. You hate
cold weather, and wish it was warmer, so you tune in the weatherman on the
radio. He says:"Tomorrow the temperature will rise up to a blistering thirty-
three degrees." The next day, this happens. The top quarter-inch of snow
melts."Whoa," you gasp."That weatherman is some guy. First he says it will
get warmer, and then it does. The weatherman must have made it warmer."
Quickly, you call up the station and ask the weatherman to make it sunny
with highs ofseventy-eight and lows ofseventy-two for the next week.
You have committed the fallacy ofpost hoc ergo propter hoc. You assumed
that since the weatherman said it would get -warmer before it got warmer, the
weatherman caused it to get warmer.
EXAMPLE B
Three months ago, we were all doing fine — the budget was balanced, the
economy was great, we were at peace with other nations and the weather was
warm. Then we elected a new president. Since then everything has gone down
hill. Now we have a large budget deficit, the economy is in the pits, we're at war
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all this because he was elected just before all this happened.
If the new president was elected just before, everything went bad, that
doesn't necessarily mean the new president caused it to go bad. This is a
common error in reasoning. We see something happen, good or bad, then
look for what happened just before it- expecting to ^d the cause. But what
happened just before it is often not the cause.
If we trip and sprain an ankle we will think of all the "unlucky" things
that happened that day- we saw a black cat, walked under a ladder, or opened
an umbrella in the house. We superstitiously conclude that these unrelated
things caused the sprained ankle, because they happened before it.
EXAMPLE C
Father. Son, I think this electric guitar you bought is influencing you for
the worse."
Son:"Uh,why dude... er...Dad?"
Father. Ever since you bought it, you have been growing your hair longer
and have been slouching around the house with your hands in your pockets. We
have also noticed that you have spoken more disrespectfully to your mother and
me, and you haven't been doing as much housework."
This father is committing the post hoc ergopropter hoc fallacy. He concludes
that since the electric guitar was bought just before the bad behavior, the
electric guitar caused the bad behavior. While the electric guitar may be
causing the bad behavior, it is also possible that a general decline in his son's
morals is causing both the buying of the electric guitar and the long hair,
slouching, disrespectfulness, and laziness. Maybe his son is hanging out with
the wrong crowd.
Sometimes a post hoc ergo propter hoc is true - what happened before is
the cause. When an egg breaks on a concrete floor, it seems logical to think
immediately ofwhat you did just before it broke- you dropped it, so that was
the cause. However, ifA happened before B,we don't have enough reason to
conclude immediately that A caused B - we need to find out a bit more.