Chart 5.

The composition of GWP, 2020-2100

Source. Table 7.
While the decline in agriculture will be unwelcome news to owners of farmland (ultimately, it is
the rents that accrue to land owners that bear the effects of changes in the prosperity of the farm
sector), it also provides an opportunity to replenish the carbon storage capacity of the world’s
forests.
Land currently used for farming amounts to about 4.5 billion hectares or approximately 30% of
the world’s land mass. About 1 billion hectares have come from land that in the pre-farming era
was plains and the remainder from land that was under forests and shrubs. Since Urban Built Up
Areas (UBBA) use only 0.2 billion hectares of land, the modest future expansion of the world’s
population will have a negligible impact on the total demand for land.
However, there is considerable scope for increasing land productivity, and thus for releasing land
from the farm sector. Convergence of farm resources and practices as incomes rise in the MICs
and LICs will more than double land productivity (Diamandis, 2012) and recently developed
technologies such as precision farming, genetically modified organisms, vertical farming, and 3D
printing could have a similar or greater effect. Competition among the diminishing number of
farmers seeking to remain in the industry will ensure that these newer technologies are
implemented and that additional technologies continue to emerge.
If land productivity were to grow at 2.3% a year, which was the average rate over the last 60
years, land released from farming would amount to 1.7 billion hectares by 2060 (a third of all
current farmland) and 3.3 billion hectares by 2100 (three-quarters of current farmland), Since
there is no other significant demand for this land, it will inevitably return to forests and shrubs,
the quality of which will depend on how well the transition is made. With careful planning, the
transition could be managed so as to maximise carbon storage and minimise forest fires. The
carbon storage capacity of forests in 2100 could then equal that in the pre-farming era (Hooke,
Whateley, and West, 2021). It would be expensive to do this, but one can envisage a scenario in
which people who are concerned about the environment leave bequests that support named and
managed areas of forest, and companies or trusts are established to organise products for these
bequests and to plant and manage the forests.

CONCLUSIONS
The main conclusions of the above scenario are: (1) GWP will increase 17-fold during the
remainder of the 21st century, to about I$ 2,160 trillion in 2100; (2) the greatest increases and the
largest markets will be in Africa and South Asia; (3) the Indian economy will become the biggest
in the world in the 2060s and in 2100 will be almost 40% larger than the second-placed Chinese
economy; (4) Nigeria’s GDP will be third largest from the middle 2080s; (5) the economic
powerhouses of the latter 20th century – the United States, Europe, Japan, and Russia - will
account for only 11% of GWP in 2100; and (6) agriculture’s share of GWP will decline to less
than 1%, and (7) land released from farming will provide an opportunity to restore the carbon-
storage capacity of the world’s forests to their pre-farming level during the latter half of the
21st century.
The conclusions of this analysis are derived from a scenario that is based on specific assumptions
about technology and population growth, workforce participation, and labour productivity
convergence. Different assumptions will produce different scenarios and therefore different
conclusions. It is hoped that, by making assumptions explicit and quantifying their implications,
the article can help businesspersons and public policy makers acquire a clearer understanding of
the future world economy and that this in turn can contribute to improved business and public-
policy decisions.