Assignment 3: Research Design

"Women's Role in Colombian Peace Process and Sustainable Peace"

Exposé

In November 2016, the Colombian government of former President Juan Manuel Santos
(2012-2016) and the country's largest still-active guerrilla group, the FARC-EP (Fuerzas
Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia - Ejército del Pueblo, english: Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia - People's Army), signed the peace treaty ending five decades of civil
war. After 56 years of war in which over 220,000 people died, 25,000 disappeared, more than
seven million were displaced within the country, and another 311,000 fled abroad, the peace
concluded between two of the largest parties to the conflict represented a milestone in
Colombian history (Endres, 2017).

Eight out of ten murdered and disappeared persons are men. Left behind are women and
children, who make up an estimated 80% of the internally displaced persons in the country
(cf. UNHCR, 2009: 1). It is not only as survivors that women play a central role in the
Colombian conflict. Women are actively involved in the war effort and also participate as
civil society actors in peacemaking activities. Consequently, the inclusion of a gender
perspective on the peace process is crucial for coming to terms with the armed conflict in
Colombia to be able to address the multiple impacts on the population and construct a basis
for a stable post-conflict society (cf. Bouvier, 2016: 6). Exploring this context can help
identify success factors that could contribute to the creation of stable and sustainable peace
arrangements worldwide. Subsequent work explores the question: What is the relationship
between the participation of Women in the Colombian peace process and the inclusivity and
sustainability of the resulting peace agreement?

Theory:

Inclusive peacebuilding theory emphasizes that peace agreements are more sustainable
when they include a broad diversity of the population. The inclusion of women and gender
perspectives can help to understand multi-layered aspects of conflicts and develop adequate
solutions. Experience from other conflicts shows that peace agreements in which women
are active participants are less prone to renewed violence. The direct correlation between

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the participation of women and the success of peace processes has been proven. Using a
gendered perspective, 181 peace agreements concluded between (1989-2011) were
examined for their implementation. Women's participation increased the likelihood of an
actual peace signing lasting at least two years by 20 per cent, and the likelihood of
concluded treaties lasting 15 years by 35 per cent (see ibid.: 42). The work is based on
Johann Galtung's definition of positive peace to define sustainable peace:
Here, negative peace describes the absence of war or direct physical violence. A positive
concept of peace also includes the increase of social justice and the creation of a culture of
peace between people within a society and between societies. However, the concept of
positive peace is often criticized for its conceptual vagueness.

Following the quote of Lakhsmi Puri, Deputy Director of UN Women, "Lasting peace
depends on equal rights, equal opportunity and the equal participation of women" (2017), the
central thesis of this paper is that lasting peace (according to Johan Galtung's concept of
positive peace) is not constructed on inequalities. In particular, gender inequalities, which are
deeply rooted in Colombia, are an obstacle to building a more peaceful society (cf. Galtung,
1975: 45ff).

Theoretical Framework:

The theoretical framework that is used is based on the UN Resolution that was mentioned
above: the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) concept to understand the relationship between
women's engagement in the Colombian peace process and the inclusiveness of the resulting
peace agreement. The WPS concept argues that women's inclusion in negotiations improves
peace agreement outcomes because they bring intersectional perspectives, experiences, and
goals to the table. Their participation can help address the root causes of conflict (like in
Colombia rooted in social inequality) promote social justice, and ensure that the needs of all
parties are met (Hentschel, 2011).

One of the mechanisms within the WPS framework is within the “Political and Civil Affairs”
Chapter to develop gender-sensitive institutions. These gender-sensitive institutions aim to
ensure that women's rights and interests are protected and supported during and after the
peace process. These organizations can be established at various levels, such as committees
and specialized working groups. This not only ensures that women are considered in the
decision-making process but also provides space for their participation. In addition to

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institutions, mechanisms that promote gender equality are also important for implementation
(Department of Peace Operations, 2020: 41).

Hypothesis:

Increasing women's participation in Colombia's peace process will have a positive impact on
the inclusiveness and sustainability of the resulting peace agreement. This effect may be
mediated by the existence of gender-based institutions and mechanisms (Bouvier, 2016: 6;
Galtung, 1975: 45ff; Ruiz-Navarro, 2019; True&Riveros, 2019).

Explanation:

H0 (Null Hypothesis):

There is no causal link between women's participation in Colombia's peace process and the
inclusiveness and sustainability of peace agreements mediated by gender-sensitive institutions
and mechanisms.

H1 (Alternative Hypothesis):

There is a causal relationship between women's participation in the Colombian peace process
and the inclusiveness and sustainability of the resulting peace agreements, and this can be
mediated by the existence of gender-sensitive institutions and mechanisms (Bouvier, 2016: 6;
Galtung, 1975: 45ff; Ruiz-Navarro, 2019; True & Riveros, 2019).

Direction of action:

This hypothesis shows that increased participation of women in peace processes would have a
(positive) impact on the inclusiveness and sustainability of peace agreements. This suggests
that greater participation of women increases their chances of addressing gender issues,
promoting gender equality, and taking into account the needs and perspectives of different
marginalized groups, like LGBTQA*+ and Indigenous and Afro-Colombian Communities
(Bouvier, 2016: 19, 28).

Causal Mechanism (Mediator):

This hypothesis states that the existence of gender-specific institutions and mechanisms
mediates the link between women's participation and the inclusiveness and sustainability of
peace agreements. Gender-just institutions and mechanisms protect the rights of women and
serve as platforms for incorporating gender perspectives into decision-making processes.

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These promote the active participation of women and ensure that women's voices are heard.
By embedding gender-sensitive mechanisms, the positive impact of women's participation can
be amplified and effectively translated into inclusive and sustainable outcomes of peace
agreements Bouvier, 2016: 6-28; Galtung, 1975: 45ff; Ruiz-Navarro, 2019; True & Riveros,
2019).

In summary, women's participation in the Colombian peace process will have positive
consequences for the inclusiveness and sustainability of the resulting peace agreement. This
effect is expected to be mediated through the existence of gender-sensitive institutions and
mechanisms that promote gender equality, address women's rights, and promote women's
meaningful participation in peacebuilding processes (Ibid.).

Women's Participation Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) (Bennett)

(Independent Variable)

V
Gender-Responsive Institutions and Mechanisms

(Mediator)

(Dependent variable)
Inclusivity and Sustainability of Peace Agreement

Research Design

Process tracing is used in this study to examine the causal mechanisms that connect women's
participation to the inclusiveness and sustainability of peace agreements. This method
explores the influence of women's participation in the Colombian peace process on these
outcomes through a particular case analysis (Dayal & Christien, 2020). Women's participation

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may have a causal effect by fostering a diversity of viewpoints that leads to a more complete
and long-lasting peace deal (De Coning et al., 2022).

Understanding the complex causal mechanisms underlying the effects of women's

participation in inclusive and sustainable peace agreements is well suited to process tracing.
The method's advantage of thoroughly examining sequential processes and interactions fits
well with the research question's focus (Bell & Badanjak, 2019). This method may uncover
complex insights regarding how women's participation affects inclusion and sustainability.
However, limitations should be addressed, including possible data biases and challenges
in interpreting results outside of particular cases.

Hypothesis: The inclusiveness and sustainability of the peace deal are positively impacted by
increasing the role of women in the Colombian peace process.

Question no 1: Why did you choose the design, given the research question
and theory and why do they fit each other….?

For examining the relationship between women's involvement in the Colombian peace
process and the inclusiveness and sustainability of the peace agreement that resulted, as well
as the potential mediating effect of gender-based institutions, the Research design of
process tracing is particularly well-suited. Because diverse and multifaceted causal
mechanisms are likely to be involved in the relationship between women's participation,
gender-based institutions, and the results of peace agreements.

The study utilizes the use of Comparative Process Tracing (CPT) approach (George &
Bennett, 2005: 178–179, Ch. 107; Bengtsson & Ruonavaara, 2017) to identify important
variables that affect how gendered peace processes and how they translate into peace
agreements that include women. Process tracing, a method for identifying causal relationships
and mechanisms in complex social phenomena, is crucial for the construction of theories
(George & Bennett, 2010, p. 207). The goals of our investigation are effectively matched by
this approach. A thorough investigation of each instance is followed by a cross-case
comparison in the comparative process tracing method (George & Bennett, 200, p. 179).

Process tracing is very useful when it's important for understanding how particular causal
mechanisms operate. Process tracing enables a thorough investigation of the sequential
processes and interactions that result in these results because the Research question is

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focused on how women's participation leads to inclusive and long-lasting peace agreements.

Process tracing aids this comparative study, allowing you to see patterns, similarities, and
variations between examples. This is important because the research question compares cases
with varied levels of women's engagement and the presence of gender-based organizations.
This approach is used by (Bell & Badanjak, 2019) in their research to create a peace
agreement database that aims to enhance knowledge of negotiated peace agreements. Process
tracing enables us to investigate hypothetical scenarios by examining how outcomes would
have changed if particular variables (such as women's participation) were absent or altered,
but clear counterfactuals are sometimes difficult in social research. This can give important
information about the effects that these things might have.

Given the context-specific character of the Colombian peace process, which is influenced by
numerous factors, process tracing is invaluable for examining its complexities. A study (Dayal
& Christien, 2020) on "Women's Participation in Informal Peace Processes" corresponds with
our focus on women's participation in peace processes, enhancing our insights into gender
dynamics in informal situations. Various papers employ this method as their research
methodology. The same goes for the (Bouvier & V, 2016) paper "Gender and the Role of
Women in Colombia's Peace Process," which presents historical analysis, gender exploration,
and interviews that highlight women's crucial contributions to forming political solutions in
the context of armed conflict.

The qualitative quality of process tracing, which is in line with the research topic and theory,
led to its selection as the design. It offers a sound method for determining causality in
complicated circumstances and captures the complexities of women's participation and
gender-based institutions, as seen in Tidemann (2020). To ensure a thorough and cogent study,
it looks at specific cases, addresses inclusivity and sustainability consequences, and looks into
mediation theories.

The Theoretical framework of the study emphasizes the importance of gender-responsive

institutions in mediating the link between women's participation and the sustainability and
inclusiveness of peace agreements. Process tracing adds to this by enabling a thorough
analysis of these mechanisms, putting accepted ideas to the test, and revealing fresh causative
elements. As a result, it aligns with the study question and theory, which concentrate on the
relationships between women's participation, gender-based institutions, and peace agreement
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results. Its careful approach may reveal unanticipated implications for inclusion and
sustainability (Assemat, 2022).

While concrete counterfactuals in social research are frequently difficult to construct, process
tracing enables us to investigate hypothetical possibilities by examining how outcomes may
have changed if specific determinants (such as women's participation) had been missing or
different (Dayal & Christien, 2020). This method offers insightful information about potential
effects. Process tracing helps to generate new theories by uncovering new causal processes
and links in addition to testing preexisting ones. It is consistent with our study's focus on
women's participation, inclusivity, and sustainability in peace processes since careful
examination can reveal unanticipated aspects influencing the inclusivity and sustainability of
peace agreements (Bell & O'Rourke, 2010). This improves our comprehension of how UN
resolutions affect peace agreements.
Process tracing supports the study question and theory by methodically examining the
relationships among women's engagement, institutions that prioritize gender equality, and the
results of peace agreements. Its qualitative quality fits the subject's complexity. This approach
gives a rigorous verification of theoretical claims, assuring coherence and depth, by
integrating theory with case studies.

Question no 2: What cases and data you would choose for analysis? Describe
the cases and data for the cause/treatment and the outcome ….?

To thoroughly study causal mechanisms and linkages in process tracing, careful case and data
selection is required (Seawright & Gerring, 2008). Case selection and data collection
techniques in the study of women's involvement in the Colombian peace process will be
adopted by strategies Suggested by Acemoglu & Robinson (2005), Lecours (2005), and
Mackay et al. (2010).

Selection of Cases

 Select one or more instances or contexts when women's engagement in the peace
process in Colombia has been remarkable and documented.
 Process tracing entails a thorough analysis of particular examples, choosing relevant
ones that permit an investigation of the connection between women's participation,
gender-responsive procedures, and the inclusiveness and durability of peace
agreements. (Seawright & Gerring, 2008)

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  It's important to choose cases with a range of outcomes for peace agreements,
institutional structures, and women's participation. Identification of trends and
comprehension of underlying systems will be aided by this variety.

Data Collection

The study of the selected examples draws on both primary and secondary textual data, such
as official peace agreements, reports, and statements made by the parties involved in the peace
processes, as well as currently available scholarly literature, including books and case studies.
Data Collection for Independent Variable (Women's Participation)

 Collect data on the level of female participation in all aspects of the peace process,
including negotiations, decision-making bodies, civil society activities, etc.

 Collect qualitative data from reports, interviews, and official documents to assess the
scope and kind of women's participation.

 Official negotiating documents, reports from international organizations, interviews

with important stakeholders, and media coverage are just a few examples of possible
data sources.

Data Collection for Mediating Mechanisms (Gender-Sensitive Institutions and

Mechanisms)

 Identify and gather data on institutions and mechanisms that addressed gender issues
and were put in place as part of the peace process. (Lecours 2005; Mackay et al. 2010;
Acemoglu & Robinson 2005)

 Data on the establishment and operation of committees, working groups, and

organizations specifically designed to address gender issues in peace agreements
would be included in the data.

 Outline the structure, functions, and success of these organizations in advancing

equality between men and women and addressing women's issues.

Data Collection for Dependent Variables (Inclusivity and Sustainability of Peace

Agreements)

 Examine the inclusiveness and sustainability of the peace accords that the selected
cases led to. (Aggestam & Towns 2018)

 Collect data on the provisions in the agreements that deal with women's rights, gender
issues, and the issues of marginalized groups. (Bell and O’Rourke, 2010)

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  Analyze if the peace accords have been carried out successfully throughout time and
whether they have aided in fostering long-lasting peace and stability.

Mechanism mapping of Variables:

 If possible, outline the specific stages and procedures by which women's participation
impacts the creation and performance of institutions that are gender-responsive.

 Collect data and evidence about how these methods have worked in practice and how
they affect inclusivity and sustainability outcomes.

Cross-Case Comparison and Analysis:

 After gathering thorough data on numerous cases, compare the results to find any
patterns, trends, or variations.

 Examine the relationship between variances in the inclusiveness and long-term

viability of peace agreements and variations in the participation, processes, and
provisions for women.

 Conduct an in-depth examination of the chosen cases, examining the relationships

between variances in women's participation, gender-responsive procedures, and the
results of peace agreements.

To understand how women's engagement results in inclusive and long-lasting peace

agreements in Colombia, process tracing methodically explores causal mechanisms using a
wide range of case selection and thorough data collecting (de la Calle, 2019).

Question no 3: What the assumptions of your design are that must be met for
making valid inferences...

Certain assumptions must be true for the process-tracing research design to produce reliable
conclusions and insightful data. These assumptions are related to the validity of the analysis
and the guiding principles of process tracing. Although process tracing is an effective method,
it's crucial to be aware of these presumptions and take note of the implications they have.
Here are some fundamental presumptions:

1. Causal Mechanisms Exist: Process tracing depends on the idea that the independent
variable (women's participation) and the dependent variables (inclusivity and sustainability of
peace agreements) are linked by observable causal mechanisms. (Bell & O'Rourke, 2010)

2. Detailed Case Information: For process tracing, rich, thorough case data is necessary.
Examining certain examples and patterns within cases leads to assumptions about the links
and mechanisms.

3. Unbiased Data: The information gathered needs to be as impartial and representative as

possible. Skewed conclusions might result from biased or one-sided data.
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4. No Spurious Correlations: Make sure that any correlations or linkages are not random or
exaggerated. It's important to create believable causal links because correlation does not
always imply causation.

5. Mediation Effect Clarity: A mediation hypothesis (gender-based institutions mediating the

relationship between women's participation and peace agreement outcomes), is assumed to it
can establish a clear sequence of events and demonstrate that the mediation mechanism is a
logical and likely explanation. (Bell & O'Rourke, 2010)

6. Transparency and Methodology: Process tracing's reliability depends on an open and

rigorous approach. To enable other researchers to assess the reliability of findings,
assumptions, decisions, and analytical steps must be clearly stated.

7. Absence of Confounding Variables: Make a determined attempt to identify and resolve

any confounders that could affect your observed associations, even though controlling for all
confounding variables is challenging. (Acemoglu & Robinson 2005)

8. Limitations Acknowledgment: It's critical to recognize the constraints on design and

analysis. Due to data limitations or the complexity of the topic under research, some
assumptions might not be fully supported

Process tracing is a powerful qualitative research method, yet it has its limitations and
presumptions just like any other strategy. The validity and reliability of the research's
inferences will be improved by being aware of these assumptions and rigorously correcting
them.

Question no 4: How you would use the data to test the assumptions in your
analysis to see whether they hold…..?

The important elements of the theoretical framework, such as women's engagement, gender-
based institutions, and their possible mediation effect, must hold based on the data gathered to
determine whether the assumptions in my analysis are correct. These testing assumptions are
provided:

1. Women's Participation Impact:

 Examine situations in which women took an active part in negotiations for peace.
Look for signs of their impact on the negotiation's agenda, subject matter, and
inclusivity and sustainability clauses.

 Contrast cases with significant participation of women with cases with low or no
participation of women. Examine whether lasting peace accords tend to be more
inclusive and sustainable when women are more involved.

2. Gender-Based Institutions Impact:

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  Analyze information about the creation and operation of institutions and procedures
that are based on gender. Look for examples where these organizations influenced the
nature of peace agreements or negotiating processes.

 Contrast situations in which gender-based institutions were present with those in

which they weren't. Analyze whether the presence of these institutions leads to more
inclusive and long-lasting peace agreements.

3. Mediation Effect:

 Gather information on each situation's gender-based institutions and women's

participation. Determine the conditions under which the mediation effect might be at
play, such as when institutions based on gender increase the influence of women's
participation on the success of peace agreements.

 Determine whether the presence of gender-based institutions affects how women's

engagement affects inclusivity and sustainability. Find patterns where the total effect
exceeds the product of the individual effects.

Challenges and Untestable Assumptions:

1. Counterfactuals and Contextual Factors: Due to the lack of counterfactuals and the
presence of contextual elements, establishing clear causal linkages in qualitative research can
be difficult. Process tracing can assist in identifying mechanisms, but it may be challenging to
demonstrate causation with absolute certainty.

2. Complex Mediation: A logical chain of events must be established in addition to showing

a connection between the mediator (gender-based institutions) and the result to prove
mediation. However, pinpointing the precise causal paths in intricate social processes may be
difficult.

3. Data Limitations: Qualitative data may contain biases, and errors, or be scarcely available.
Finding thorough information about women's participation and institutions with a gender bias
may be challenging, particularly for historical or cases with scant records.

4. Multiple Mediators: There may be several potential mediators influencing the results in
complex processes like peace discussions. It can be difficult to isolate and evaluate each
mediator's role, especially when their impacts are interconnected.

Question no 5: How the analysis and results would be affected if the testable
and untestable assumptions are not met?
When testable assumptions are not met or when untestable assumptions cannot be fully
addressed, the analysis and findings of your study may be impacted. Let's examine how the
following events might affect research:

Testable Assumptions Not Met:

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 1. Women's Participation Impact: The case that higher involvement yields better
results could be undermined if the data do not demonstrate a pattern of association
between women's participation and inclusivity/sustainability. This could mean that
women's participation isn't a good enough indicator of agreement quality on its own.
(Krook & Mackay 2015)
2. Gender-Based Institutions Impact: The suggested mechanism might not be as
effective if the presence of gender-based institutions does not always correspond to
greater inclusivity and sustainability. This would suggest that other variables have a
bigger impact on the results of agreements. (Aggestam & Towns 2018)
3. Mediation Effect: The mediation effect might not hold if the presence of gender-
based institutions does not consistently improve the relationship between women's
participation and outcomes. This would imply that although both effects are
significant, their total impact might not be as significant as first thought.
Untestable Assumptions or Challenges:
1. Counterfactuals and Context: The ability to conclusively establish causal linkages
may be constrained in the absence of counterfactuals or as a result of contextual
complexity. This might result in more cautious readings and conclusions.
2. Complex Mediation: The depth of analysis may be limited when the mediation effect
incorporates complicated mechanisms. It may be difficult to adequately illustrate how
the claimed mechanism works in the case of complex causation.
3. Data Limitations: The depth of analysis may suffer if it is unable to gather complete
data on women's engagement, institutions that privilege women, or results. This could
result in a lack of comprehension of the causal mechanisms.
4. Contextual Nuances: The generalizability of your findings may be constrained if
contextual factors considerably vary between cases. Conclusions might only apply in a
particular setting, and wider applicability might necessitate more research in many
contexts.
5. Multiple Mediators: Isolating each mediator's distinctive contribution may be
difficult if there are several potential mediators and their effects are linked. Attributing
outcomes to just one component could become complex as a result of this.
Implications for Analysis and Results:
1. Impact on Conclusions: The validity of results may be compromised when testable
assumptions are not met. A more careful or nuanced assessment of the relationship
between women's participation and outcomes may be made as a result of the lack of
obvious correlations.
2. Discussion of Limitations: It's critical to openly explain these analysis limitations.
Explain how these might affect the validity of your results, any biases, and the range
of your conclusions.
3. Research Implications: Utilize the constraints as a chance for future research.
Determine areas that need more research, possible improvements to your theoretical
framework, or changes to your technique.
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 4. Contextualized Findings: If untestable hypotheses or subtle contextual differences
have an impact on the generalizability of your results, emphasize the context-specific
character of your findings.
In summary, the level at which testable assumptions are met and the efficiency with which
you resolve untestable assumptions or problems will affect the analysis and findings of the
study. It's crucial to tackle these constraints critically, openly, and with a concentration on
offering insightful contributions to the area.

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