Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dustin R. Schuette
Barcelona 1
CONTENTS
1. Definition of IPOs
2. Benefits and Costs of IPOs
3. The process prior to IPOs
4. Pricing Methods
5. Three Puzzling Characteristics of IPOs
2
IPO Case Study
• Please carefully read the information in the syllabus regarding the case study
• The Netscape case files will be uploaded into Moodle directly after the last class on IPOs, i.e. the
evening of Nov 10th
• All case assignments / essays need to be handed in to Moritz Greiwe via email:
moritz.greiwe@esade.edu
• Files sent via email should be in PDF format and no larger than 3-4MB, max 5 pages, min font
size 11; Font = Arial; line spacing at least single
• The Netscape Case essay must be handed in (email arrival time) by latest 18.11.2020 23:59
– any group missing the deadline will receive 0 points (please ignore the Syllabus deadline) →
make sure the email left the “outbox” and is under “sent emails” – we will not send out receival
confirmations
• For any questions regarding problems with the case, please directly contact Moritz Greiwe. Please
note: content questions will only be answered after the case has been handed in
• Make assumptions wherever necessary to properly answer the case questions (e.g. for firm
evaluation purposes). If you make assumptions, make sure to document and justify them
• Do not embed complete excel files in the PDF or send excel files separately. Only one PDF file is
to be sent per group. Correspondingly, please include excels tables where applicable directly in
the PDF → make sure to properly show your calculations (either via textual descriptions or more
detailed tables) 3
1.
Definition of IPOs
4
Definition of IPOs
Equity Issues
• A Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO) is an equity issue by a firm that is already public.
As in an IPO, the shares issued can be primary or secondary shares
• In a primary offer:
− The shares offered are new shares being issued by the company
− The money raised by selling these shares is invested in the firm
• In a secondary offer:
− The shares are sold by current insiders (e.g. founder of the company or venture
capitalist)
− The money raised by selling these shares goes to their previous owners
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2.
Benefits and Costs of IPOs
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What are the key benefits of IPOs?
Benefits of IPOs
• New funds: New sources of financing if current (e.g. internal funding) sources exhausted →
opportunity to substitute debt and decrease leverage
• Lower funding costs: Increased liquidity in company stock increases its value
• Transparency:
− Higher disclosure requirements → more available information
− Increased information processing → analysts (via recommendations) and stock market (via
stock price) continuously process available information
− Higher visibility → Particularly important for new industries, or small companies that want to
build a strong brand
− Increased investor scrutiny → More monitoring, more efficient performance evaluation,
better investment decisions
• IPOs offer an exit for financiers → BUT: lock-up periods and limitations by regulation and by
investment banks need to be taken into account
• Mergers and acquisitions
− It is easier for other companies to notice and evaluate a public firm for potential synergies
− IPOs and SEOs are often used to finance acquisitions
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What are the key costs of IPOs?
Costs of IPOs
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3.
The process prior to IPOs
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Before the IPO: Suit-up and put on your good shoes!
• Before IPO, no publicly traded price of the firm that “condenses” all
information → high information asymmetry between private firm and
potential investors
• Managers have certain degree of “managerial discretion” in reporting,
e.g. with respect to wording of certain information of accounting choices
• Window-dressing comprises activities to give the firm a temporary better
look from a financial perspective to attract investors
• Key window-dressing activity = Earnings management: companies may
temporarily inflate earnings (e.g. via reducing depreciations and
amortizations)
• BUT: what happens after the IPO?
10
How does a standard Initial Public Offering work?
• Source:
CNN
Money
• MS won
largest part
• Source: Facebooks IPO Filing of all 2011
tech IPOs
• 6 key underwriting parties,
headed by Morgan Stanley as
lead underwriter
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How does a standard Initial Public Offering work?
• IB sales team meet with portfolio managers and key investors to sound the
offering price = “building the book”
Gauge investor • IB gets the anchor investor
demand • Process often accompanied by road shows
• If demand very strong (weak) price is raised (lowered)
12
How does a standard Initial Public Offering work?
13
The Process of an IPO
14
What are is the key form that a company in the US
has to file for going public?
Deep Dive 1: The prospectus & red herring – Facebooks Red Herring
• https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d
ata/1326801/000119312512034517/d
287954ds1.htm
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What are the two kinds of contracts usually made between the
IPO firm and the investment bank in terms of compensation?
• Firm Commitment:
− Underwriter guarantees the deal → buys the stock and resells it to the
public
− Underwriter bears the uncertainty of the issue → to buffer against
potential errors, IB underprices issue by 10 – 15%
− Compensation via underwriting commission (difference between share
prices as bought by IB from private firm and sold by IB to public investors)
− Most common method by US reputable banks
• Best Efforts:
− Underwriter does not guarantee that the stock will be sold
− Company bears the uncertainty of the issue
− Compensation via flat fee (e.g. 100.000 USD)
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What is a green shoe option?
• Within firm commitment contracts, investment banks typically sell more than
100% of the shares offered
• Almost all IPOs include overallotment option → IB has the right to sell up to
15% more shares than initially guaranteed by the IB
− Overallotment option called “Green Shoe Option”; Green Show
Manufacturing IPO in Feb 1963 was the first IPO to include such an option
• If IB expects aftermarket demand to be hot → presell 115% of the issue, with
the expectation to exercise the overallotment option
• If IB expects aftermarket demand to be low → presell 135% of the issue
− Shares above 115% are sold “short” (IB does not own them)
− If aftermarket is cool, some investors who got allocated shares, directly “flip”
their shares in the market → IB can cover short, potentially at lower price
and “stabilize” the offering, and shares are “retired” (as if they never existed)
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How much does it cost to go public?
19
4.
Pricing Methods
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Pricing Methods
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Puzzling Characteristics of IPOs
1. Short-Run Underpricing
− Necessary or not?
− Why is so much money “left on the table”
3. Long-Run Underperformance
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1 Underpricing
What is underpricing?
left on
the table 2 Stock price at which IB sells to market = offering price
2 3 Closing price of stock in market after first day
1
Time
• Money left on the table = difference between the closing price on the first day and
the offer price, multiplied by the number of shares sold.
− This is the first-day profit received by investors who were allocated shares at the
offer price
− It represents a wealth transfer from the pre-IPO shareholders (i.e. owners) of the
issuing firm to the investors taking part in the IPO
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1 Underpricing
Is underpricing something bad?
• Before explaining the reasons for underpricing, we should note that minimization of
underpricing is not necessarily optimal. What is the actual IPO objective?
− Maximize firm value = maximizing aftermarket / long-term price
− Maximize proceeds to selling shareholders = maximize offer price
− Minimize costs associated with the going public process = minimize spread
between price offered by IB and market offering price
➢ Underpricing also expensive for Investment Bank, since commission is
based of offering price which obviously could have been set higher
• It is clear though: underpricing initially leaves the issuing firm with money left on the
table at the time of the IPO, BUT:
− Loss is a function of the percentage of the firm offered in IPO
− If only 10% of firm are offered in IPO → underpricing manageable for owners
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1 Underpricing
What is the magnitude of underpricing?
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1 Underpricing
Why is there underpricing in the IPO market?
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1 Underpricing
What is the winner‘s curse?
Winner’s Curse Argument: if you get it all, it might not be that good
• The uninformed investors will only submit purchase orders if, on average, IPOs are underpriced
sufficiently to compensate them for partaking in all IPOs
− If IPOs are priced fairly, on average, uninformed lose:
− Uninformed investors partake in all IPOs, overpriced and underpriced IPOs,
− Uninformed investors get the Lion’s share of the overpriced ones
− IPO market needs uninformed investors → underpricing
Signalling Argument: if you can pay the price, you must be a good firm
• Good firms are willing to pay this signalling price because, after a superior performance, they hope
to can recoup the cost of this signal from subsequent issues
• Bad firms prone to have worse overall performance. Hence, it is more costly for bad firms to “imitate”
good firms in lowering the IPO price, since it is not clear if they at all will have a subsequent issue
Signalling argument is based on the idea that IPOs are preludes to SEOs
• Fact: Insiders tend not to sell that many shares at the IPO stage → Welch (1989) finds that 1/3 IPOs
are followed by a SEO within a few years
• There must be some reasonable assurance that the “window” will be open when the firm wants to
return to the market.
• But: Further empirical studies have shown: no statistical evidence for relation between underpricing
returns and the success of SEOs
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1 Underpricing
What is underpricing corruption?
• Underpriced IPOs are a business of “windfall profits” → everyone wants to join the club
• In order to join the club, issuing firms’ executives hire Investment Banks who generally underprice →
underpricing of the IPO firm is the “club entrance fee” (“paid” by the firm’s pre-IPO owners)
• Subsequently, executives receive the ability to participate in other, later hot IPOs of the same
investment bank → the payment / bonus of the executives is the underpricing windfall
− This is done by setting up a personal / private brokerage account for these individuals and then
allocating hot IPO shares to these accounts (irrespective of their function as executives)
• Manifestation of serious agency problem, but only possible if pre-IPO owners already outsourced
management to executives
• Example: In August 2002 documents were released by the US House of Representatives Financial
Services Committee showing that Salomon Smith Barney (SSB) allocated hot IPOs to chief
executives of many telecommunications firms during 1996-2000
− Of course, during this period SSB had a large market share of equity underwriting and M&A
business in this industry!
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1 Underpricing
What are informational cascades within IPOs?
• Investors may not only pay attention to own information but also to the activities of other investors
• In this context, “cascade” relates to the fact that there must be a “first” informed investor to buy in
order to reveal that the issuing firm is a good firm → this information will cascade down to less well
informed investors
• But that also means: If an investor sees that no one else wants to buy, investor may decide not to buy
even when in possession of favourable information → “hold up scenario”
• To prevent this from happening, an issuer may want to underprice an issue to induce the first few
potential investors to buy and induce a cascade of all other investors.
− Avoid negative informational cascades: thus underprice
• In practice, many IBs solve the hold-up scenario via an “anchor investor” (large reputable firm / bank
/ fund / investor who is the first to join the party)
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1 Underpricing
How are lawsuits connected to underpricing?
• Only investors who lose money are entitled to damage compensations → Frequency and severity of
future lawsuits can be reduced by underpricing
• Underpricing the IPO is a very costly way of reducing the probability of a future lawsuit
• But: Further empirical studies have shown: no difference in underpricing between IPOs that were
followed by lawsuits and IPOs that did not entail lawsuits
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1 Underpricing
What are other explanations for underpricing?
Other Explanations
33
2 IPO cycles /
Why is there such a large variation in the number of waves
IPOs over time?
• But:
− Business cycle variables explain little of the variation in the number of IPOs
− Variation in IPOs numbers = too large to be only explained by the business cycle
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2 IPO cycles /
How did IPO numbers evolve historically? waves
Number of Offerings (bars) and Average First-day Returns (yellow) on US IPOs, 1980-2012
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2 IPO cycles /
How can we explain IPO cycles? waves
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2 IPO cycles /
How can we explain IPO cycles regarding IPO waves
numbers?
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3 Long-term
Puzzling Characteristics of IPOs underperformance
3. Long-Run Underperformance
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3 Long-term
Puzzling Characteristics of IPOs underperformance
3. Long-Run Underperformance
Percentage returns on IPOs from 1970-2002 during the first five years after issuing
Geometric
First Six Second Six First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Mean
Months Months Year Year Year Year Year
Years 1-5
IPO firms 6.3% 0.0% 6.6% 5.0% 9.1% 13.7% 11.6% 9.2%
Size-matched 4.6% 5.3% 10.2% 13.8% 14.2% 16.3% 12.4% 13.4%
Difference 1.7% -5.3% -3.6% -8.8% -5.1% -2.6% -0.8% -4.2%
No. of IPOs 7,428 7,362 7,381 7,427 6,522 5,565 4,759
IPO firms 6.7% 0.2% 7.1% 7.5% 9.8% 13.1% 9.7% 9.4%
Style Matching 2.4% 4.4% 7.6% 11.6% 12.9% 16.5% 10.8% 11.8%
Difference 4.3% -4.2% -0.5% -4.1% -3.1% -3.4% -1.1% -2.4%
No. of IPOs 7,026 6,982 6,999 6,888 6,045 5,135 4,366
Percentage returns on IPOs from 1990-2002 during the first five years after issuing
Geometric
First Six Second Six First Second Third Fourth Fifth
Mean
Months Months Year Year Year Year Year
Years 1-5
IPO firms 8.4% 0.7% 9.2% 5.3% 8.7% 20.5% 10.2% 10.7%
Size-matched 5.8% 7.3% 13.8% 16.1% 15.0% 21.2% 12.5% 15.9%
Difference 2.6% -6.6% -4.6% -10.8% -6.3% -0.7% -2.3% -5.2%
No. of IPOs 4,638 4,582 4,591 4,428 3,680 2,930 2,350
IPO firms 8.3% 0.5% 9.0% 6.2% 8.4% 21.0% 10.2% 10.8%
Style Matching 4.0% 6.7% 12.3% 12.8% 15.3% 24.2% 10.1% 14.8%
Difference 4.3% -6.2% -3.3% -6.6% -6.9% -3.2% 0.1% -4.0% 39
No. of IPOs 4,453 4,418 4,426 4,285 3,586 2,872 2,303
3 Long-term
Puzzling Characteristics of IPOs underperformance