Solver Markov (Pringgabaya) PRAYUDHA

Nama Pos ARR Pringgabaya
Panjang Data 23 Tahun

ZOM 228
Sifat Hujan Normal
2017/2018
OKT I OKT II NOV I NOV II DES I DES II JAN I JAN II FEB I FEB II MAR I MAR II
1994/1995 0 0 0 17 69 16 73 94 112 202 183 21
1995/1996 0 0 20 75 162 146 3 80 86 150 29 25
1996/1997 0 0 32 42 39 42 73 58 132 102 30 0
1997/1998 0 0 0 0 14 9 10 35 10 15 30 4
1998/1999 0 12 56 305 4 40 167 275 89 14 133 104
1999/2000 0 10 101 3 75 60 212 39 33 147 62 16
2000/2001 0 3 20 42 79 58 58 2 66 23 88 48
2001/2002 10 11 0 10 105 24 4 15 177 138 35 36
2002/2003 0 2 0 40 41 60 98 47 17 44 26 1
2003/2004 0 0 23 34 25 32 82 103 83 57 72 20
2004/2005 0 10 0 62 0 53 41 71 57 0 41 34
2005/2006 6 4 0 34 77 106 79 82 0 32 36 2
2006/2007 0 0 0 0 10 102 18 41 103 141 89 40
2007/2008 1 1 7 1 1 110 54 120 43 19 10 56
2008/2009 10 11 21 46 73 61 142 62 35 72 13 22
2009/2010 27 11 25 14 74 70 75 74 18 25 20 0
2010/2011 30 35 0 82 16 142 48 36 32 14 97 18
2011/2012 5 0 0 0 17 53 152 135 94 38 94 10
2012/2013 0 0 43 0 28 119 176 17 46 51 125 16
2013/2014 0 8 4 85 34 143 41 65 16 92 56 27
2014/2015 0 0 25 23 101 50 21 82 64 59 31 0
2015/2016 0 0 0 0 4 113 0 92 57 17 79 19
2016/2017 3 2 31 30 78 70 51 106 163 6 33 35
2017/2018 4 5 19 43 52 72 77 81 71 63 64 25
Rerata 4 5 18 41 49 73 73 75 67 63 61 24
1.15 Rerata 4.6 6.1 20.4 47.1 56.3 83.9 83.9 86.6 76.6 72.9 70.4 27.7
0.85 Rerata 3.4 4.5 15.1 34.8 41.6 62.0 62.0 64.0 56.6 53.9 52.1 20.5
Standar Deviasi 8.3 8.1 24.3 63.7 41.9 41.3 59.9 55.3 47.8 57.1 44.0 23.4
Korelasi 56% 9% 18% -26% 2% 0% 17% -21% -23% 10% -3% -14%
z 0.600 0.509 0.470 0.497 0.521 0.494 0.560 0.570 0.672 0.540 0.520 0.542
z* 0.25 0.02 -0.08 -0.01 0.05 -0.02 0.15 0.18 0.45 0.10 0.05 0.11
Hujan Markov 4.2 5.2 18.5 43.3 51.7 72.4 76.8 80.8 70.7 62.8 64.3 25.4
Cek Atas Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cek Normal 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Cek Bawah Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cek Normal 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Korelasi 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999
Error 7% 2% 4% 6% 6% 1% 5% 7% 6% 1% 5% 5%
Rerata Error 5.27%
90
80
Grafik Perbandingan Hujan Observasi dengan Hujan Bangkitan Markov
70
60
Hujan (mm)
50
40
30
20
10
0
JAN I JAN II FEB I FEB II MAR I MAR II APR I APR II MEI I MEI II JUN I JUN II JUL I JUL II AGT I AGT II SEP I SEP II
10
0
Hujan Observasi Hujan Markov

APR I APR II MEI I MEI II JUN I JUN II JUL I JUL II AGT I AGT II SEP I SEP II
121 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 22 15 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 43 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 36 0 0
11 20 6 5 2 5 12 43 0 0 9 79
80 32 0 0 1 38 46 4 1 0 0 1
8 24 8 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0
45 18 0 1 79 0 9 5 0 0 0 0
4 1 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
7 8 11 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 91 0
0 7 0 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
163 16 0 0 0 8 26 0 58 22 0 0
17 4 30 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
43 36 9 5 1 38 3 3 0 0 1 0
28 3 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
18 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6
13 0 6 27 5 24 7 12 9 4 14 4
83 5 30 10 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 15 6 4 1 5 6 0 0 0 4
20 13 22 11 58 0 5 1 0 2 2 0
15 0 10 9 0 0 40 0 10 1 0 0
12 38 1 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 0 17 1 56 12 1 2 0 14 3
26 26 11 10 15 0 3 0 0 0 2 1
34 16 8 7 9 13 7 3 3 3 7 4
32 15 9 7 8 12 8 3 3 3 6 5
36.4 16.7 10.3 8.1 9.4 13.6 8.8 3.7 4.0 3.2 7.1 5.2
26.9 12.3 7.6 6.0 6.9 10.1 6.5 2.7 2.9 2.4 5.3 3.9
42.0 13.4 10.1 8.1 19.7 19.3 12.8 9.1 12.2 8.5 19.1 16.3
-27% 1% 2% -7% -14% -19% -4% -4% -9% -12% -7% -6%
0.507 0.529 0.466 0.529 0.529 0.478 0.488 0.488 0.491 0.490 0.501 0.486
0.02 0.07 -0.09 0.07 0.07 -0.06 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.00 -0.04
34.0 15.6 8.1 7.5 8.8 12.8 7.4 3.1 3.5 2.9 6.5 4.2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999
8% 7% 9% 6% 8% 8% 3% 5% 0% 3% 6% 9%
I
I
ZOM 228
Sifat Hujan Normal
2017/2018
1994/1995 0 0 0 17 69 16 73 94 112 202 183 21
1995/1996 0 0 20 75 162 146 3 80 86 150 29 25
1996/1997 0 0 32 42 39 42 73 58 132 102 30 0
1997/1998 0 0 0 0 14 9 10 35 10 15 30 4
1998/1999 0 12 56 305 4 40 167 275 89 14 133 104
1999/2000 0 10 101 3 75 60 212 39 33 147 62 16
2000/2001 0 3 20 42 79 58 58 2 66 23 88 48
2001/2002 10 11 0 10 105 24 4 15 177 138 35 36
2002/2003 0 2 0 40 41 60 98 47 17 44 26 1
2003/2004 0 0 23 34 25 32 82 103 83 57 72 20
2004/2005 0 10 0 62 0 53 41 71 57 0 41 34
2005/2006 6 4 0 34 77 106 79 82 0 32 36 2
2006/2007 0 0 0 0 10 102 18 41 103 141 89 40
2007/2008 1 1 7 1 1 110 54 120 43 19 10 56
2008/2009 10 11 21 46 73 61 142 62 35 72 13 22
2009/2010 27 11 25 14 74 70 75 74 18 25 20 0
2010/2011 30 35 0 82 16 142 48 36 32 14 97 18
2011/2012 5 0 0 0 17 53 152 135 94 38 94 10
2012/2013 0 0 43 0 28 119 176 17 46 51 125 16
2013/2014 0 8 4 85 34 143 41 65 16 92 56 27
2014/2015 0 0 25 23 101 50 21 82 64 59 31 0
2015/2016 0 0 0 0 4 113 0 92 57 17 79 19
2016/2017 3 2 31 30 78 70 51 106 163 6 33 35
2017/2018 4 5 19 43 52 72 77 81 71 63 64 25
Rerata 4 5 18 41 49 73 73 75 67 63 61 24
1.15 Rerata 4.6 6.1 20.4 47.1 56.3 83.9 83.9 86.6 76.6 72.9 70.4 27.7
0.85 Rerata 3.4 4.5 15.1 34.8 41.6 62.0 62.0 64.0 56.6 53.9 52.1 20.5
Standar Deviasi 8.3 8.1 24.3 63.7 41.9 41.3 59.9 55.3 47.8 57.1 44.0 23.4
Korelasi 56% 9% 18% -26% 2% 0% 17% -21% -23% 10% -3% -14%
z 0.600 0.509 0.470 0.497 0.521 0.494 0.560 0.570 0.672 0.540 0.520 0.542
z* 0.25 0.02 -0.08 -0.01 0.05 -0.02 0.15 0.18 0.45 0.10 0.05 0.11
Hujan Markov 4.2 5.2 18.5 43.3 51.7 72.4 76.8 80.8 70.7 62.8 64.3 25.4
Cek Atas Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cek Normal 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Cek Bawah Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cek Normal 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Korelasi 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999
Error 7% 2% 4% 6% 6% 1% 5% 7% 6% 1% 5% 5%
Rerata Error 5.27%
90
80
70
60
Hujan (mm)
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
0

121 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 22 15 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 43 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 36 0 0
11 20 6 5 2 5 12 43 0 0 9 79
80 32 0 0 1 38 46 4 1 0 0 1
8 24 8 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0
45 18 0 1 79 0 9 5 0 0 0 0
4 1 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
7 8 11 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 91 0
0 7 0 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
163 16 0 0 0 8 26 0 58 22 0 0
17 4 30 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
43 36 9 5 1 38 3 3 0 0 1 0
28 3 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
18 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6
13 0 6 27 5 24 7 12 9 4 14 4
83 5 30 10 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 15 6 4 1 5 6 0 0 0 4
20 13 22 11 58 0 5 1 0 2 2 0
15 0 10 9 0 0 40 0 10 1 0 0
12 38 1 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 0 17 1 56 12 1 2 0 14 3
26 26 11 10 15 0 3 0 0 0 2 1
34 16 8 7 9 13 7 3 3 3 7 4
32 15 9 7 8 12 8 3 3 3 6 5
36.4 16.7 10.3 8.1 9.4 13.6 8.8 3.7 4.0 3.2 7.1 5.2
26.9 12.3 7.6 6.0 6.9 10.1 6.5 2.7 2.9 2.4 5.3 3.9
42.0 13.4 10.1 8.1 19.7 19.3 12.8 9.1 12.2 8.5 19.1 16.3
-27% 1% 2% -7% -14% -19% -4% -4% -9% -12% -7% -6%
0.507 0.529 0.466 0.529 0.529 0.478 0.488 0.488 0.491 0.490 0.501 0.486
0.02 0.07 -0.09 0.07 0.07 -0.06 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.00 -0.04
34.0 15.6 8.1 7.5 8.8 12.8 7.4 3.1 3.5 2.9 6.5 4.2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999
8% 7% 9% 6% 8% 8% 3% 5% 0% 3% 6% 9%
I
I
ZOM 228
Sifat Hujan Normal
2017/2018
1994/1995 0 0 0 17 69 16 73 94 112 202 183 21
1995/1996 0 0 20 75 162 146 3 80 86 150 29 25
1996/1997 0 0 32 42 39 42 73 58 132 102 30 0
1997/1998 0 0 0 0 14 9 10 35 10 15 30 4
1998/1999 0 12 56 305 4 40 167 275 89 14 133 104
1999/2000 0 10 101 3 75 60 212 39 33 147 62 16
2000/2001 0 3 20 42 79 58 58 2 66 23 88 48
2001/2002 10 11 0 10 105 24 4 15 177 138 35 36
2002/2003 0 2 0 40 41 60 98 47 17 44 26 1
2003/2004 0 0 23 34 25 32 82 103 83 57 72 20
2004/2005 0 10 0 62 0 53 41 71 57 0 41 34
2005/2006 6 4 0 34 77 106 79 82 0 32 36 2
2006/2007 0 0 0 0 10 102 18 41 103 141 89 40
2007/2008 1 1 7 1 1 110 54 120 43 19 10 56
2008/2009 10 11 21 46 73 61 142 62 35 72 13 22
2009/2010 27 11 25 14 74 70 75 74 18 25 20 0
2010/2011 30 35 0 82 16 142 48 36 32 14 97 18
2011/2012 5 0 0 0 17 53 152 135 94 38 94 10
2012/2013 0 0 43 0 28 119 176 17 46 51 125 16
2013/2014 0 8 4 85 34 143 41 65 16 92 56 27
2014/2015 0 0 25 23 101 50 21 82 64 59 31 0
2015/2016 0 0 0 0 4 113 0 92 57 17 79 19
2016/2017 3 2 31 30 78 70 51 106 163 6 33 35
2017/2018 5 6 19 41 55 79 69 82 77 54 65 21
Rerata 4 5 18 41 49 73 73 75 67 63 61 24
1.15 Rerata 4.6 6.1 20.4 47.1 56.3 83.9 83.9 86.6 76.6 72.9 70.4 27.7
0.85 Rerata 3.4 4.5 15.1 34.8 41.6 62.0 62.0 64.0 56.6 53.9 52.1 20.5
Standar Deviasi 8.3 8.1 24.3 63.7 41.9 41.3 59.9 55.3 47.8 57.1 44.0 23.4
Korelasi 56% 9% 18% -26% 2% 0% 17% -21% -23% 10% -3% -14%
z 0.632 0.544 0.485 0.484 0.557 0.556 0.498 0.577 0.707 0.471 0.525 0.471
z* 0.34 0.11 -0.04 -0.04 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.19 0.55 -0.07 0.06 -0.07
Hujan Markov 4.5 5.8 19.2 40.7 55.4 78.8 69.1 82.0 76.6 53.9 64.9 20.6
Cek Atas Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cek Normal 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Cek Bawah Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cek Normal 1
Korelasi 0.991
Error 15% 10% 8% 1% 13% 8% 5% 9% 15% 15% 6% 14%
Rerata Error 9.78%

90
80
70
60
Hujan (mm)
50
40
30
20
10
0
H
30
20
10
0

121 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 22 15 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 43 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 36 0 0
11 20 6 5 2 5 12 43 0 0 9 79
80 32 0 0 1 38 46 4 1 0 0 1
8 24 8 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0
45 18 0 1 79 0 9 5 0 0 0 0
4 1 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
7 8 11 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 91 0
0 7 0 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
163 16 0 0 0 8 26 0 58 22 0 0
17 4 30 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
43 36 9 5 1 38 3 3 0 0 1 0
28 3 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
18 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6
13 0 6 27 5 24 7 12 9 4 14 4
83 5 30 10 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 15 6 4 1 5 6 0 0 0 4
20 13 22 11 58 0 5 1 0 2 2 0
15 0 10 9 0 0 40 0 10 1 0 0
12 38 1 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 0 17 1 56 12 1 2 0 14 3
26 26 11 10 15 0 3 0 0 0 2 1
29 13 10 8 9 11 7 3 3 3 5 4
32 15 9 7 8 12 8 3 3 3 6 5
36.4 16.7 10.3 8.1 9.4 13.6 8.8 3.7 4.0 3.2 7.1 5.2
26.9 12.3 7.6 6.0 6.9 10.1 6.5 2.7 2.9 2.4 5.3 3.9
42.0 13.4 10.1 8.1 19.7 19.3 12.8 9.1 12.2 8.5 19.1 16.3
-27% 1% 2% -7% -14% -19% -4% -4% -9% -12% -7% -6%
0.472 0.461 0.546 0.550 0.527 0.446 0.468 0.479 0.487 0.473 0.479 0.484
-0.07 -0.10 0.12 0.12 0.07 -0.14 -0.08 -0.05 -0.03 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04
29.4 13.3 10.1 7.9 8.7 11.0 6.7 2.9 3.3 2.5 5.4 4.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7% 8% 13% 13% 6% 7% 12% 11% 3% 11% 12% 11%

MAR I
183 1600
29
30
30
133
62
88
35
26
72
41
36
89
136
13
20
97
94
125
56
31
79
33
65

Solver Markov (Pringgabaya) PRAYUDHA

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Solver Markov (Pringgabaya) PRAYUDHA

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Nama Pos ARR Pringgabaya

Panjang Data 23 Tahun

Cek Atas Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hujan Observasi Hujan Markov

Cek Atas Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hujan Observasi Hujan Markov

Cek Atas Normal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grafik Perbandingan Hujan Observasi dengan Hujan Bangkitan Markov

Hujan Observasi Hujan Markov

7% 8% 13% 13% 6% 7% 12% 11% 3% 11% 12% 11%

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