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Why Do
Interest
Rates Change?
Chapter Preview
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Chapter Preview
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Example 1: Expected Return
Example 2:
Standard Deviation (a)
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Example 2:
Standard Deviation (b)
Example 2:
Standard Deviation (c)
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Example 2:
Standard Deviation (d)
Example 2:
Standard Deviation (e)
• Fly-by-Night Airlines has a standard deviation of returns of
5%; Feet-on-the-Ground Bus Company has a standard
deviation of returns of 0%.
• Clearly, Fly-by-Night Airlines is a riskier stock because its
standard deviation of returns of 5% is higher than the zero
standard deviation of returns for Feet-on-the-Ground Bus
Company, which has a certain return.
• A risk-averse person prefers stock in the Feet-on-the-Ground
(the sure thing) to Fly-by-Night stock (the riskier asset), even
though the stocks have the same expected return, 10%. By
contrast, a person who prefers risk is a risk preferrer or risk
lover. We assume people are risk-averse, especially in their
financial decisions.
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Determinants of Asset Demand (2)
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Supply & Demand in the Bond
Market
We now turn our attention to the mechanics of
interest rates. That is, we are going to examine how
interest rates are determined—from a demand and
supply perspective. Keep in mind that these forces act
differently in different bond markets. That is, current
supply/demand conditions in the corporate bond
market are not necessarily the same as, say, in the
mortgage market. However, because rates tend to
move together, we will proceed as if there is one
interest rate for the entire economy.
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Derivation of Demand Curve
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Derivation of Demand Curve
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To continue …
•Point C: P = $850 i = 17.6% Bd = 300
•Point D: P = $800 i = 25.0% Bd = 400
•Point E: P = $750 i = 33.0% Bd = 500
•Demand Curve is Bd in Figure 4.1 which
connects points A, B, C, D, E.
─ Has usual downward slope
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Supply and Demand for Bonds
Figure 4.1
Supply and
Demand for
Bonds
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Derivation of Supply Curve
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Market Equilibrium
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Market Conditions
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Supply & Demand Analysis
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Changes in Equilibrium
Interest Rates
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Factors That Shift Demand Curve (a)
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How Factors Shift the Demand
Curve
1. Wealth/saving
─ Economy , wealth
─ Bd , Bd shifts out to right
OR
─ Economy ¯, wealth ¯
─ Bd ¯, Bd shifts out to left
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How Factors Shift the Demand
Curve
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3. Risk
─ Risk of bonds ¯, Bd
─ Bd shifts out to right
OR
─ Risk of other assets , Bd
─ Bd shifts out to right
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How Factors Shift the Demand
Curve
4. Liquidity
─ Liquidity of bonds , Bd
─ Bd shifts out to right
OR
─ Liquidity of other assets ¯, Bd
─ Bd shifts out to right
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Summary of Shifts in the
Demand for Bonds
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Factors That Shift Supply Curve
Table 4.3
Summary
Factors That Shift
the Supply of
Bonds
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Shifts in the Supply Curve
Figure 4.3 Shift in the Supply Curve for Bonds
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Case: Fisher Effect
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Evidence on the Fisher Effect
in the United States
Figure 4.5 Expected Inflation and Interest Rates (Three-
Month Treasury Bills), 1953–2013
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Case: Business Cycle Expansion
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Evidence on Business Cycles
and Interest Rates
Figure 4.7 Business Cycle and Interest Rates (Three-Month
Treasury Bills), 1951–2013
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Case: Low Japanese Interest
Rates
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The Practicing Manager
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Profiting from Interest-Rate
Forecasts (cont.)
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Chapter Summary
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