————————————_—————_rrer_reao es EAE EA AE ——e__— Hon ganz =, USD) Richmond Menuacturng Index a ah Wee SilSem 9) EUR French Flash Manufacturing Pa w 2s s2as — EUR French ash Services Pat a son 4573 9:30am) EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI ie 437 4330 tlh EUR ml German Flash Services Pa a asa 4930 10:00am) EUR ald Flash Manufacturing PMI w 44.8 aes te EUR hash Services Pt w ws. 40st 10:30am 9) GP lash Manufacturing Pat w 4o7 462+ > cr mt Flash Services PMI ow 53.0 s34¢ tb 3:45pm 9) USD al_—_-Flash Manufacturing Pat s 7s 79st 2 usp mt Flash Services PMI a 51.0 stash Thy 10:000m EUR Germano Business Climate w ec7 668 th Rn2S asp 9) EUR l—_‘Main Refinancing Rate 2 450% 450% tb EUR ml Monetary Poe Statement 2 2:30pm) USD l_—_Advance GOP e/a @ 20% 49% tb 9) USO fl Unemployment cis & sk 107K USD eh Advance G0? Pee Index aa w 2am 3% USD Core Durable Goods Orders vm e 02% oes » usp Durable Goods Orders m/m_ ow 1.0% 54% th 25pm 9) EUR LEB Press Conference e 4:00pm 9) USD Gh New Home Sales o exek 590K lb Fa 2:30pm 9) USD lore PCE Price Index mim @ om oat 175 g:009m 9) USD Penna Home Sales myn @ Lee 0.0% tb‘Monthly BPR Low periee 04.00 remnyyE—||«|«*«*«CMRIN CK CE (Dxyi(isoa.z8¢ 103.00 02.50 102.00 cae ee 10. 1M. uso 103.299 -0.106 (1 coi wr 000 [103.259 107.00 108.80 06.04 ‘Monthly BPR HIgh i 108.00 , Mog set 2023 Moa set 2028 Mog se 2026 8 101.50 Saiaa 101.004 Serie 200.50 100.00 99.500January -Q1 Risk OFF scenario. Previous candle was bearish, we are now 3/4 of this month and we're not seeing any bearishness. Monthly candle has now high probabilities to end consolidative (65%) or expansive (35%). LRLR in both directions, meaning no higher probabilities on HTF. Overall bearish for this Q1, | would like to see BPR 50% not be closed above. Draw on liquidity is not clear right now. Still favoring downside, but previous monthly high is highly attractive right now. It could be taken out & then reverse.@ Indice Dollaro america 103.239 -0.186 (-0.18%) 103.239 va .000-{ 103.239 uso ih BPR Low ae ~ wicehiy 08 aT Monthly v8 FEOF 104.00 B 103.60: 102.60 Wekiy -08 Oven owas 109.00 102.00 Wook a)Weekly candle closed below 75% of 40 Days range. This is usually a good bearish sign. As said, still favour downside. I will watch how it behaves on Monday and Tuesday in regard to 75%. If daily candles start closing above it, upside is higher prob. If Monday and Tuesday respect 75%, Wednesday has high probability to be bearish expansive. Right now, | do not have a clear view. it is 50%-50% and | don’t like these conditions for day - trades. J need more infos to be able to anticipate an expansive day ina clear direction.Q Indice Dollaro americano-1D-TVC = uso 0.250018 (-01%0) ont 868 Low fang igh pone vane)om [oe i Tees -oBier| | 10380 ange 75% EE 8 102.000 | ii Range EO, - 10200 Toot 1 sono 00.80Daily chart is more clean. We have an huge OB on the left, | don’t want to see it broken. (Closing above MT) IPDA has rebalanced an old SIBI, now it will need new liquidity. Despite the LRLR to the upside, bearishness is more attractive to me. As I saw this chart, my eyes went to 50 % of this daily range. 1 will absolutely avoid trading Monday. Will maybe engage something on Tuesday, post 4 am (new York), favouring downside for Usdx if Monday doesn't close above 75%. When | do not have a clear directional bias, | focus my attention on short term scalps or intra session. We could see an interesting day on Wednesday, usually ideal for day trading. Thursday we have Monetary Policy for euro, | will absolutely avoid markets till 9-10 am. Friday can be an interesting day too.ee Sterlina /Dollaro- 1M-FXCM = us - 1.27000 0.00053 (-0.04%6) on 1.22600 1.22000 +.21600 1.21000 +.20500 1.20000 1.20800 1.20000 ‘Monthly Rejection OB Monthly BPR High og tos set Now 2028 Mor Mog tog 2J like this kind of environment, it seems like it’s preparing a big upside movement. Pound seems quite strong. We are approaching the fourth week of this month, and it's usually an expanding one. Jam just now noticing that this past week closed above 50% of this monthly candle. This usually indicates that IPDA has reached a fair valuation.Stetina Dolaro7W-FXCM = uso 27000-00058 (-004%) ange . 2ase ‘a7eoe] as [rz7oe)] __Poegtion Monty Rejection 08 eee ve i Borate : : ‘to i ange 75% att satzhle 1.2600 Monthly SPRY wre 1.2600 +2450 ® Cran MondWe are between 50-75% of this current range. It’s usually not a good area for longs. very much like the fact that we have took out low resistance to the downside. Now we are presented with multiple past weeks highs with low resistance, and high resistance to the downside. ike the idea of taking longs Wednesday, if it shows unwillingness to go lower, coupled with a bearish environment for dxy.[Dollaro.1D-FXCM = usp 04%) 1.290 =e 1.200 Range High and ¥ Monthy Rejection O8 ate Boe 1202 1.260 Boyde 270 | Te 1.276 fin gory Possible +08 1.2680 2 oar 1.2620 1.2600 12580 1 19 2028 16 23 Feb 2 20 Mor n 19 © OpnICT explains that whenever we have an accumulation, our eyes need to watch 50%. It is usually the case that in this area we find IPDA placing blocks. Blocks are like TNT (explosives). They are dropped in 3 areas: when ipda rebalances, when ipda takes liquidity, when ipda consolidates (at EQ) We have taken out seliside, 20 day range, and we are around equilibrium. This large bearish candle, in a bullish environment, has high probability to be an order block. How do we know when this TNT will be confirmed? When it’s open is violated. We have a FVG and. VIB, | would like to see them broken and used as support to go higher. 1 will be very very cautious in the first two days of the week, since we are between 50-75. Wednesday...Euro / Dollaro- 1M-OANDA = uso 1.08976 +0.00213 (40.20%) 1.12000 1.08968 | 2.0 191600 va Byse 100 2.10600 Bayaae 2.10000 +.00800 Monthly 408 +0000 Monthly BR High Monthy BPR Low 1.06500 06000 2.06500 +.08000 2.04800 oy 2024 ke tug on 2028 ©Weaker than pound. Itjust went down to bullish +0B. As I saw this chart, | imagined a bearish monthly candle closing, and a new bullish one. This might indicate that we could see a very slow closure of the month for euro, and not too much excitement for pound. Still favouring upside, we might be assisting formation of a monthly propulsion block6 Euro Dollaro- 1W-OANDA} = usD 1 pee7e +0.00219;40.20%) 1.1100 1.08068 | 20 va 1.10500 nee ‘Buyside 0 ‘apse +0980 Range EO ‘eEEEE “Monthly BPR High ‘0700Below equilibrium, with sellside taken. Usually an interesting area for longs. LRLR to upside, high to downside. It might get stronger in the first part of week, until Wednesday. Favouring upside but not liking the environment.uso Euro | Dollaro. 1D -OANDA 1.08876 +0.00213 (+0 20%) 1.08968] 20 [1.08986 va w 4.1100 Imbalance, to be filles Range 75% gi 1050 Boysae +0000 Tape ms 1.0950% Range £0 srry ‘(EORUSD| [ic0807 Daily 81st —|— = Monthly +08 Farge 25% 1.0800 Monthly BPR High 1.07500 Orn , = venDaily is way cleaner. ike the fact that we took out sellside, bodies respecting BISI, tails respecting its CE. We know that when ipda takes liquidity, it then needs to rebalance. This past movement could be rebalanced between Monday and Tuesday. If twill decide to engage on Tuesday London, ! will do so in euro. Then | will favor pound, since we will be approaching an accumulation around range equilibrium. Accumulations are usually areas that posts some resistance. Not very bad conditions, we are finally seeing the end of this tunnel-like accumulation.Final considerations We are in January, the savannah is just waking up... We wait, like lions. Knowing that we do not need an entire buffalo to eat. Just a small pound of flash. Monday and Thursday are days where we need to be very careful. ! would suggest Tuesday London past 4 am. And Wednesday the entire day. Then | will exercise doing nothing, the most difficult part of this business. A loss avoided is way more impactful than a profit realised. The newborn lion does not know, that hunting creates excitement.