WHOLE BRAIN LEARNING SYSTEM

OUTCOME-BASED EDUCATION

Science, Technology, and Engineering (STE) Program

GRADE
BASIC STATISTICS 9

2
LEARNING QUARTER

MODULE WEEK 4-6

1
 MODULE IN
BASIC STATISTICS

QUARTER 2
WEEKS 4-6

PROBABILITY

Development Team
Writer: Gregorio P. Agatep, Jr.
Editors/Reviewers: Roque A. Domingo George A. Alonzo
Illustrator: Gregorio P. Agatep, Jr. Jeshimon C. Patoc
Layout Artist: Gregorio P. Agatep, Jr.
Management Team:
Vilma D. Eda Arnel S. Bandiola
Lourdes B. Arucan Juanito V. Labao
Marlyn S. Ventura

2
 What I Need to Know
This module is all about the probability of events, additive rules, conditional
probability, and multiplicative rules. In this module, only those experiments in which the
sample space has a finite number of elements are considered.

Most Essential Learning Competencies:

The learners:
1. find the probability of a simple event
2. solve problems involving probability of simple events
3. illustrate events, and union and intersection of events
4. illustrate and find probabilities of mutually exclusive events
5. identify conditional probabilities
6. solve problems involving conditional probabilities
7. illustrate dependent and independent events
8. find probabilities of dependent and independent events.

Objectives:

At the end of the module, the learners should be able to:

1. define probability and other terms associated to probability such as experiment,

event, sample space, etc.;
2. solve problems involving probability of simple events;
3. illustrate the probability of union of two events and intersection of events;
4. illustrate and find probabilities of mutually exclusive events;
5. identify conditional probabilities;
6. solve problems involving conditional probabilities;
7. illustrate dependent and independent events; and
8. find probabilities of dependent and independent events.

What I Know
Multiple Choice. Read the given questions carefully and answer each item correctly. Write
the letter of your choice on a separate sheet.

1. Which is a probability experiment?

A. Choosing a letter from the English alphabet
B. Mixing flour, baking powder, and monosodium glutamate in a bowl.
C. Adding one tablespoon salt into a beaker with 100 mL of carbonated water.
D. Leaving a bowl of saline solution under the sun from 11:30 AM to 2:00 PM.

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2. How many elements are there in the sample space if three dice are thrown simultaneously?
A. 3 B. 6 C. 18 D. 216
3. The permutations of the word FOURTH are written in strips of paper, one permutation per
strip and placed in a box. If a strip of paper is drawn from the box, what is the probability
that the permutation begins with a vowel?
A. 1/6 B. 1/3 C. ½ D. 2/3

4. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the probability of getting a sum of at most 4?
A. 1/12 B. 1/9 C. 1/6 D. ¼

For items 5 – 6 refer to the situation below.

The probability that Edna will take Statistics this semester is 0.84. The probability that she
will enroll English 5 this semester is 0.79. The probability that she will enroll both subjects is
0.72.

5. What is the probability that she will enroll either Statistics or English 5?
A. 0.91 B. 0.77 C. 0.67 D. 0.57

6. What is the probability that she will not enroll in both subjects?
A. 0.09 B. 0.23 C. 0.33 D. 0.43

For items 7-8, refer to the situation below.

There are 48 club members of which 25 are grade 10 and 32 club members are males.
There are 12 grade 10 males. A club member is selected at random.

7. What is the probability that the member is male but not Grade 10?
A. 2/3 B. 13/48 C. ¼ D. 1/3

8. What is the probability that the member is neither grade 10 nor male?
A. 2/3 B. 1/3 C. ¼ D. 1/16

For items 9 and 10, refer to the situation below.

In a Special Science Class with 18 boys and 22 girls, it is observed that 8 boys and 10
girls are always in uniform. A student is picked at random from this class.

9. What is the probability that the student always wears uniform given that he is boy?
1 1 4 9
A. B. C. D.
5 4 9 20
10. What is the probability of wearing a uniform and being a boy?
1 1 4 9
A. B. C. D.
5 4 9 20
11. Which events are independent?
A. Drawing 2 letter from the English alphabet without replacement
B. Choosing two delegates from a group to attend a conference
C. Selecting three representatives from a group
D. Throwing a die twice

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For items 12-13, refer to the situation below.
The probability that a married man watches “24 Oras” is 0.52 and a married woman
watches the show is 0.58. The probability that a married man watches the show given that
his wife does 0s 0.84

12. What is the probability that a married couple watches the show?
A. 0.4368 B. 0.4872 C. 0.7531 D. 0.9375

13. What is the probability that a wife watches the show given that her husband does?
A. 0.4368 B. 0.4872 C. 0.7531 D. 0.9375

Lesson

1 PROBABILITY

What’s In

Before taking on the lesson, do Activity 1 first.

Activity 1: Blast from the past!

Solve the problems.

1. How many ways can 6 boy scouts and 6 girl scouts sit in a row
a. without restrictions?
b. if the boy and girl scouts must alternate?
c. if the boy scouts sit together?

2. How many ways can 7 different seedlings be arranged in a circle?

3. a) How many permutations are in the word COMPUTER?

b) How many of these permutations begin and end with a vowel?
c) How many of these permutations have the vowels together?

4. A purse contains 6 ten-peso coins, 8 five-peso coins, and 12 one-peso coins. Edna takes
at random 5 coins. How many ways are to have the coins amount to ________?
a. 25 pesos?
b. 23 pesos?
c. 13 pesos?

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 What’s New
Probability might have originated from antiquity because of man’s thirst for gambling.
In an effort to increase their chances of winning, gamblers consulted mathematicians to get
tips on how to optimize strategies in different games of chance. Through the years, probability
has branched out far beyond the games of chance. It has pervaded every facet of human life:
from business to politics, from weather to transportation, from agriculture to medicine, from
the depths of the sea to the outer space, everything. To understand better the generalizations
and conclusions as a result of the development, knowledge of the theory of probability is
paramount.

What is It

A. Probability of an Event

We begin by defining some terms essential to understanding the concept of probability.

An experiment is a procedure that leads to well-defined results called outcomes. The set of
all outcomes is called the sample space denoted by S. Every element of the sample space is
called a sample point and one or more elements of the sample space is called an event.
Probability is the chance that an event occurs. It can be expressed as a fraction, decimal, or
a percentage.

Notations:
Let A and B be events.
P(A) = probability of event A
P(S) = probability of the sample space
A∩B = intersection of events A and B
P(A∩B) = probability of the intersection of events a and B
A∪B = union of events A and B
P(A∪B) = probability of the union of events A and B
A’ = complement of event A
P(A’) = probability of the complement of A.

(Note: The student is advised to have a review of set theory taken in Grade 7, First Quarter to
have a better understanding of the concepts in probability.)

Experiment Outcome Sample space

Tossing a coin H or T (H = head; T = tail) S = {H,T}
Tossing 2 coins HT or TH S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Throwing a die 3 or 5 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Throwing 2 dice (1,1) or (6,5) S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),

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 (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
Choosing a color R or Y (R = red, Y = yellow)
from the rainbow S = {R, O, Y, G, B, I, V}
colors

If the sample space for an experiment has 𝑁 elements, all are equally likely to occur,
1
each element in the sample space has a probability equal to . If A, with 𝑛 elements, is any
𝑁
event in this sample space, then the probability of event A is

𝒏
P(A) = (Formula 1)
𝑵

Example 1: A box contains 4 cloud 9, 5 choco mucho, and 3 beng-beng chocolates. A

chocolate is taken out from the jar at random, what is the probability that a
a. cloud 9 is taken?
b. beng-beng or choco mucho is taken?
Solution:
Let A = event that a cloud 9 is taken
B = event that a beng-beng is taken
C = event that a choco mucho is taken

a) Using Formula 1, 𝑛 = 4 and 𝑁 = 12

𝑛 4 1
P(A) = = =
𝑁 12 3

b) Using Formula 1, 𝑛 = 8 and 𝑁 = 12

𝑛 8 2
P(B∪C) = = =
𝑁 12 3

Example 2: A coin bank contains 5 ten-peso coins, 9 five-peso coins, and 11 one-peso coins.
What is the probability of getting a ________________?
a) ten-peso coin out of the coin bank?
b) five-peso coin out of the coin bank?
c) a one-peso coin or a ten-peso coin out of the piggy bank?
d) a five-peso coin or a one-peso coin out of the piggy bank
Solution:
Let A = event that a ten-peso coin is taken out of the piggy bank
B = event that a five-peso coin is taken out of the piggy bank
C = event that a ten-peso coin is taken out of the piggy bank

a) Using Formula 1, 𝑛 = 5 and 𝑁 = 25

𝑛 5 1
P(A) = = =
𝑁 25 5

b) Using Formula 1, 𝑛 = 9 and 𝑁 = 25

𝑛 9
P(A) = =
𝑁 25

c) Using Formula 1, 𝑛 = 16 and 𝑁 = 25

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 𝑛 16
P(A∪C) = =
𝑁 25

d) Using Formula 1, 𝑛 = 20 and 𝑁 = 25

𝑛 20 4
P(B∪C) = = =
𝑁 25 5

Properties of Probability

Let S be the sample space and A is an event in S. Then

1. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
2. P(∅) = 0
3. P(S) = 1

Example 3: A die is biased in such a way that an odd number is thrice as likely to occur as an
even number. If A is the event that a number more than 2 occurs in a single toss of a die, find
P(A)
Solution:
The sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Assign 𝑥 as the probability of an even number
and 3𝑥 as the probability of an odd number. Since P(S) = 1, we have
P(S) = 3𝑥 + 𝑥 + 3𝑥 + 𝑥 + 3𝑥 + 𝑥 = 1
12𝑥 = 1
1
𝑥=
12
Event A = {3, 4, 5, 6}
1 1 1 1
P(A) = 3 ( ) + + 3( ) +
12 12 12 12
8 2
= =
12 3

Example 4: A die is biased in such a way that an odd number is thrice as likely to occur as an
even number. Let A be the event that a prime number turns up and B be the event that a
number less than 4 occurs. Find : (a) P(A∩B); (b) P(A∪B)
Solution:
The sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Assign 𝑥 as the probability of an even number
and 3𝑥 as the probability of an odd number. Since P(S) = 1, we have
P(S) = 3𝑥 + 𝑥 + 3𝑥 + 𝑥 + 3𝑥 + 𝑥 = 1
12𝑥 = 1
1
𝑥=
12
Now, A = {2, 3, 5} B = {1, 2, 3}

a) A∩B = {2, 3}. So,

1 3 4 1
P(A∩B) = + = =
12 12 12 3
b) A∪B = {1, 2, 3, 5}. So,
3 1 3 3 10 5
P(A∪B) = + + + = =
12 12 12 12 12 6

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Example 5: In a poker hand of 5 cards, find the probability of holding 3 queens and 2 kings.
Solution:
The number of ways of having 3 queens from 4 is
4 4!
( )= =4
3 3!1!
and the number of ways of having 2 kings from 4 is
4 4!
( )= = 6.
2 2!2!
Using the Fundamental Principle of Counting, there are 𝑛 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 = 4(6) = 24. So,
there are 24 hands with 3 queens and 2 kings.
52 52!
Next, the total number of 5-card poker hand is 𝑁 = ( ) = = 2,598,960.
5 5!47!
Thus, the probability of event A of getting a hand with 3 queens and 2 kings is
𝑛 24
P(A) = = = 9.23(10)−6
𝑁 2,598,960

B. Additive Rules

If the probability of some events are known, we can find the probability of some other
events using these known probabilities.

If A and B are two events, then

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) (Formula 2)

Note: Formula 2 can also be written

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

3
Example 6: The probability that Jim wins President of the Student Council is . The probability
5
3 3
that Ace wins Vice President is . The probability that both of them wins is . What is the
7 8
probability that either of them wins an office?
Solution:
Let J = the event that Jim wins President of the Student Council
A = the event that Ace wins Vice President of the Student Council
3 3 3
P(J) = P(A) = P(J∩A) =
5 7 8
Now,
P(J∪A) = P(J) + P(A) - P(J∩A)
3 3 3
= + −
5 7 8
183
= = 0.6536
280
Therefore, there is 0.6536 probability for either Jim or Ace to hold office.

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Example 7: The probability that Matt passes the board exam is 82%. The probability that he
enrolls in the master’s program is 38%. The probability that he passes the board exam or
enrolling in the master’s program is 52%. What is the probability that he passes the board
exam and enrolls in the master’s program?

Solution:
Let B = the event that Jim passes the board exam
M = the event that Jim enrolls in the master’s program
P(B) = 82% = 0.82 P(M) = 38% = 0.38 P(B∪M) = 52% = 0.52
Now,
P(B∪M) = P(B) + P(M) – P(B∩M)
P(B∩M) = P(B) + P(M) – P(B∪M)
= 0.82 + 0.38 – 0.52
= 0.68
Therefore, the probability that Matt passes the board exam and enrolls in the master’s program
is 68%.

Example 8: In an ordinary deck of cards, a card is drawn. What is the probability that it is
a) an ace or a red card?
b) a face card or a diamond?
Solution:
Let A = the event that the card is an ace
R = the event that the card is a red card
F = the event that the card is a face card
D = the event that the card is a diamond

4 1
a) P(A) = = (There are 4 aces in the deck of 52 cards)
52 13
26 1
P(R) = = (There are 13 hearts and 13 diamonds all of which are red cards)
52 2
2 1
P(A∩R) = = (There are 2 red aces in the deck)
52 26
P(A∪R) = P(A) + P(R) - P(A∩R)
1 1 1
= + −
13 2 26
7
=
13
7
Therefore, the probability that the card is an ace or a face card is .
13

12 3
b) P(F) = = (There are 12 face cards)
52 13
13 1
P(D) = = (There are 13 diamond cards)
52 4
3
P(F∩D) = (There are 3 face cards which are diamond in the deck)
52
P(F∪ 𝐷) = P(F) + P(D) - P(F∩D)
3 1 3
= + −
13 4 52
11
=
26
11
Therefore, the probability that the card is a face card or a diamond is .
26

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 Formula 2 states that if A and B are two events, we add the respective probabilities of
the two events then subtract the possibility that these two events can happen simultaneously.
However, there are instances that the two events cannot happen together, i.e., P(A∩B) = 0.
The events, A and B, are said to be mutually exclusive. Hence Formula 2 becomes

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) (Formula 3)

Example 9: Two dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the probability that the sum is 5 or
a 9?
Solution:
Let A = the event that the sum is 5
B = the event that the sum is 9
4 1
P(A) = = (There are only 4 cases where the sum is 5: 1&4, 4&1, 2&3, 3&2)
36 9
4 1
P(B) = = (There are only 4 cases where the sum is 9: 5&4, 4&5, 6&3, 3&6)
36 9

Unlike the previous three examples above, here the events are mutually exclusive.
There is no way the sum can be 5 and at the same time 9. Hence,
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)
1 1
= +
9 9
2
=
9

Example 10: The probability that Flor will spend the weekend at home is 0.48. The probability
that she will spend the weekend visiting her grandparents is 0.39. What is the
probability that she will spend the weekend at home or visiting her grandparents?
Solution:
Let H = the event that Flor stays at home during the weekend
V = the event that Flor visits her grandparents during the weekend
P(H) = 0.48 P(V) = 0.39
It is to be noted that Flor cannot be in two places at the same time. So the events are
mutually exclusive. Thus,
P(H∪V) = P(H) + P(V)
= 0.48 + 0.39
= 0.87
Therefore, the probability that Flor will either be at home of visiting her grandparents is 0.87.

Sometimes, there are cases where solving for the probability of the complement of an
event is easier than solving directly the problem. The next formula shows this.

Let events A and A’ be complements. Then,

P(A) + P(A’) = 1 (Formula 4)

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Example 11. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the probability that the sum is
neither a 5 nor a 9?
Solution:
Here we are interested in the event that is the complement of the event A∪B if we let
A = the event that the sum is 5
B = the event that the sum is 9
4 1 4 1
P(A) = = P(B) = =
36 9 36 9

1 1 2
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) = + =
9 9 9
Now,
P(A∪B) + P((A∪B)’) = 1
P((A∪B)’) = 1 - P(A∪B)
2
=1-
9
7
=
9
7
Therefore, the probability of not getting a sum of 5 nor 9 is .
9

Example 12: In Example 10, what is the probability that Flor will not spend the weekend at
home nor visit her grandparents?
Solution:
We are interested with P((H∪V)’). So, using Formula 4, we have

P(H∪V) + P((H∪V)’) = 1
P((H∪V)’) = 1 - P(H∪V)
= 1 – 0.87
= 0.13
Therefore, the probability that Flor will not stay at home nor visit her grandparents is 0.13

Example 13: In a survey of 30 students about their favorite food, 20 choose spaghetti and 15
choose fried chicken. Ten choose spaghetti and fried chicken. A student is picked at random.
What is the probability that
a) his favorite food is spaghetti or fried chicken?
b) his favorite food is neither spaghetti nor fried chicken?
c) his favorite food is not fried chicken?
Solution:
Let us construct a Venn diagram first.
F
S
5 10 10

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Let F = event that the favorite food is fried chicken
S = event that the favorite food is spaghetti

25 5
a) P(F∪S) =
30
=
6
c) P(F’) = 1 – P(F)
15 1
P(F) = =
30 2
b) P((F∪S)’) = 1 – P(F∪S)
25 5 1 1
P(F∪S) = = P(F’) = 1 – =
30 6 2 2

5 1
P((F∪S)’) = 1 – =
6 6

Now, it is your turn. Practice your skill by answering the next activity.

What’s More
Activity 2: More on Probabilities!

Solve the problems.

1. Let M and N be events of the sample space S and P(M) = 0.42, P(N) = 0.53, and
P(M∩N) = 0.18. Find the probability of the events
a) M or N b) M but not N
c) N but not M d). neither M nor N
2. In a certain game, a turn is won if you rolled an 8 or 9 with two dice. What is the probability
of winning a turn?
3 2 1
3. The probabilities that Amber, Bob, and Chang, win the tournament are , , and ,
8 5 7
respectively. Assume that only one wins the tournament. Find the probability that
a. either Amber or Bob wins the tournament.
b. Bob does not win the tournament.
c. neither Bob nor Chang wins the tournament.

What I Have Learned

1. An experiment is a procedure that leads to well-defined results called outcomes. The set
of all outcomes is called the sample space denoted by S. Every element of the sample space
is called a sample point and one or more elements of the sample space is called an event.
2. Probability is the chance that an event occurs. It can be expressed as a fraction, decimal,
or a percentage.
3. If the sample space for an experiment has 𝑁 elements, all are equally likely to occur, each
1
element in the sample space has a probability equal to . If A, with 𝑛 elements, is any event
𝑁
in this sample space, then the probability of event A is
𝒏
P(A) =
𝑵

13
4. Properties of Probability
Let S be the sample space and A is an event in S. Then
a. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
b. P(∅) = 0
c. P(S) = 1
5. Additive Rules
a. If A and B are two events, then P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B).
b. If events, A and B, mutually exclusive, then P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B).
c. If events A and A’ are complements, then P(A) + P(A’) = 1.
6. The events, A and B, are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot happen
simultaneously, or the events do not have the same element or the sets are disjoint.

What I Can Do

Study the following statements then fill-in the table below.

1. The probabilities that an insurance agent will sell 0, 1, 2, or 3 plans on any given day in
January are, respectively, 0.21, 0.43, 0.23, and 0.15.
2. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.48 and the probability that it will not rain
tomorrow is 0.55.
3. The probabilities that an encoder will commit 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 or more errors per page are
0.11, 0.35, 0.22, 0.16, and -0.16.
1
4. On a single draw from a deck of playing cards, the probability of getting a club is , the
4
probability of selecting a red card is ½, and the probability of selecting a club and a red card
1
is
8

Identified Error Explanation of the error

1

14
 Lesson
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
2
What’s In
Before taking on the lesson, do Activity 1 first.

Activity 1: Proba Galore!

Solve the problems.

Suppose a six friends are leaving on a summer vacation in a rented car and that M is
the event that they will experience mechanical problems with a probability of 0.25, T is the
event that they will receive a ticket for committing a traffic violation with a probability of 0.23,
and V is the event that they will arrive at a resort with no vacancies with a probability of 0.45.
Use the Venn diagram below to answer the following questions. What is the probability that
the family
a) will experience no mechanical problems and no traffic violation but will find a resort
with no vacancies?
b) will experience both mechanical problems and trouble in locating a resort with a
vacancy, but will not receive a ticket for a traffic violation?
c) will have either have mechanical trouble or find a resort with no vacancies but will
not receive a ticket for committing a traffic violation?
d) will not arrive at a resort with no vacancies?

T
V
0.06 0.19

0.05
0.08

What’s New
Sometimes the result of one event affects the probability of a second event. For
example sleeping late increases the probability of rising late. Similarly, studying hard increases
the probability of getting better grades. The probability of an event occurring knowing that an
event has already occurred is called conditional probability.

15
 What is It

The conditional probability is the probability of 𝐵, given 𝐴, denoted by 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)is defined

by
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = if 𝑃(𝐴) > 0 (Formula 5)
𝑃(𝐴)
Remark: The symbol 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) is usually read “the probability that 𝐵 occurs given that 𝐴
occurs” or simply “the probability of 𝐵 given 𝐴.”

Example 1: A die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting a perfect square when
the die resulted in a number less than 5?
Solution:
Let 𝐴 = the event that the result in tossing the die is less than 5
𝐵 = the event that the die is a perfect square
𝐴 = {1, 2, 3, 4} (There are 4 possible outcomes)
𝐵 = {1, 4} (There are 2 outcomes)
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {1,4} (There are 2 outcomes)
4 2 2 1
So, 𝑃(𝐴) = = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = =
6 3 6 3
Now,
1
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 3 1
𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = = 2 =
𝑃(𝐴) 2
3

Therefore, the probability of getting a perfect square when a die is rolled knowing that
it turned up less than 5 is ½.

It is seen in this example that the probability of an event changes when considered
relative to different sample spaces.

Example 2: The city is considering to promote the vaccination program against the COVID-
19. They are going to select from medical professionals from the city. The table below shows
the categories.

Doctor (D) Nurse (N) Allied Health Total

Professional (A)
Male (M) 12 34 28 74
Female (F) 15 73 43 131
Total 27 107 71 205

If an ambassador is selected from the professionals, find the probability that the one
selected is
a) a female nurse
b) an allied health professional
Solution:
73
107 73 𝑃(𝑁∩𝐹) 205 73
a) 𝑃(𝑁) = 𝑃(𝑁 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐹 |𝑁) = = 107 =
205 205 𝑃(𝑁) 107
205

16
From the table, it can be directly seen that
73
𝑃(𝐹|𝑁) =
107

73
Therefore, the probability that the ambassador is a female nurse is .
107

28 43
b) 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) =
205 205
28 43 71
So, 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) = + =
205 205 205
From the table, it can be easily seen that
71
𝑃(𝐴) =
205

71
Therefore, the probability that the ambassador is a health professional is .
205

Example 3: The probability that a scheduled flight of the Philippine Airlines (PAL) departs on
time is 0.72. The probability that it arrives on time is 0.75. The probability that it departs on
time and arrives on time is 0.69. Find the probability that the plane
a) arrives on time given that it departed on time
b) departed on time given that it arrived on time
Solution:
Let 𝐷 = the event that PAL departs on time
𝐴 = the event that PAL arrives on time
𝑃(𝐷) = 0.72 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.75 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) = 0.69

𝑃(𝐷∩𝐴) 0.69
a) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐷) = = = 0.96
𝑃(𝐷) 0.72

Thus, the probability that PAL arrives on time given that it departs on time is 0.96

𝑃(𝐷∩𝐴) 0.69
b) 𝑃(𝐷 |𝐴) = = = 0.92
𝑃(𝐴) 0.75

Thus, the probability that PAL departs on time given that it arrives on time is 0.96

Sometimes, care should be exercised when dealing with replacements.

Replacements signify independence. Consider the illustration below.

A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards. Let 𝐻 be the event of drawing a
13 1
heart. Then P(𝐻) = = . Suppose a second event 𝐷 is defined as drawing a diamond from
52 4
13
the deck without replacement. So, P(𝐷 |𝐻)= . (Note that the denominator is 51 since a card
51
has already been removed)

Now, suppose that before the second draw the card was replaced, then the
13 1 13 1
𝑃(𝐷 |𝐻) = = . We see here that P(𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐷 |𝐻) = = . Here, we say that events 𝐻 and
52 4 52 4
𝐷 are independent. In short, if a prior event does not affect the probability of an event, then
the wo events are independent.

Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent if and only if

𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴).

17
Otherwise, 𝐴 and 𝐵 are dependent.

Example 4. In tossing a die twice, what is the probability of getting a sum of 7 or 5?

Solution:
Although there is no mention of replacement, it is implied, hence the two tosses of
the die are independent.
Let 𝐴 = event of getting a sum of 5
𝐵 = event of getting a sum of 7
4 1 6 1
𝑃(𝐴) = = 𝑃(𝐵) = =
36 9 36 6
1 1 5
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) = + =
9 6 18
5
Hence, the probability of getting a sum of 7 or 5 in two tosses of a die is .
18

Example 5. What is the probability of selecting 2 representatives from a group of 9

students?
Solution:
This case implies that there is no replacement. If replacement is attempted here,
there is a possibility of getting the same person.
Let 𝐹 = event of choosing the first of the two representatives
𝑆 = event of choosing the second of the two representatives
1
𝑃(𝐹) =
9
1
𝑃(𝑆|𝐹) =
8

𝑃(𝑆∩𝐹)
𝑃(𝑆|𝐹) = → 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝑆|𝐹)𝑃(𝐹)
𝑃(𝐹)
1 1 1
= ( )( ) =
8 9 72
1
Hence, the probability of selecting 2 representatives from a group of 9 is .
72

Multiplicative Rules

From Formula 5, the next formula can be derived. Multiplying both sides of the
equation by 𝑃(𝐴) yields the following formula

If A and B are events in an experiment that can both occur, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴)𝑃(𝐴). (Formula 6a)
Similarly,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)𝑃(𝐵). (Formula 6b)

If A and B are independent events, i.e., 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) (from Formula 6a) or 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)
(from Formula 6b) then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) (Formula 7)

Example 6: A box contains 25 bulbs of which 3 are busted. If 2 bulbs are selected at
random. What is the probability that the
a) first is not busted while the second is busted (without replacement)?
b) both are good (with replacement)?

18
Solution:
Let 𝐴1 = event that the first bulb selected is not busted
𝐴2 = event that the second bulb selected is not busted
𝐵= event that the bulb selected is busted
22 3
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 𝑃(𝐵) =
25 25

3 1
a) Since there is no replacement, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = =
24 8
So, using Formula 6a, we have
1 22 11
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴1 ) = ( ) ( ) = = 0.11
8 25 100

Therefore, the probability is selecting two bulbs, the first being good and the second being
busted, without replacement is 0.11

3
b) Since replacement is allowed, The events are independent, i.e., 𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 𝑃(𝐴2 ) =
25
Hence, using formula 7, we get
22 22 484
𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴2 ) = ( ) ( ) = = 0.7744
25 25 625

Therefore, the probability of selecting two good bulbs with replacement is 0.7744

Example 7: A blood sample is tested twice for presence of steroids. Let 𝐴 = event that the
1st test is negative, and 𝐵 = the event that the 2nd test is positive. Find 𝑃𝐴 ∩ 𝐵.
Solution:
It is implied in the situation that the two tests are independent. Thus
1
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = (The denominator is 2 since there are 2 tests)
2

Using Formula 7,
1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = ( ) ( ) =
2 2 4

Example 8: Three candies are drawn from a jar containing 5 Maxx (𝑋) candies, 6 Mentos
(𝑀) candies, 7 Snow Bear (𝑆) candies. What is the probability in the order M, S, and X if
each candy is
a) replaced?
b) not replaced?
Solution:
a) If each candy is replaced, then 𝑀, 𝑆, and 𝑋 are independent events. Using generalized
form of Formula 7, we have

6 7 5 35
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆 ∩ 𝑋) = 𝑃(𝑀)𝑃(𝑆)𝑃(𝑋) = ( ) ( ) ( ) = = 0.036
18 18 18 972
Therefore, the probability of getting the candies in the order Mentos, Snow Bear and Maxx
with replacement is 0.036.

b) If there is no replacement, then 𝑀, 𝑆, and 𝑋 are dependent events. Using generalized form
of Formula 6, we have
6 7 5 35
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆 ∩ 𝑋) = 𝑃(𝑀)𝑃(𝑆|𝑀)𝑃(𝑋 |𝑀 ∩ 𝑆) = ( ) ( ) ( ) = = 0.0429
18 17 16 816

19
Therefore, the probability of getting the candies in the order Mentos, Snow Bear and Maxx
without replacement is 0.0429.

Example 9. A coin is biased so that a tail is thrice as likely to fall as a head. If the coin is
tossed 3 times, what is the probability of getting 2 heads and a tail.
Solution:
The sample space is S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
However, with an unbalanced coin, it is not possible to assign equal probabilities for each
outcome. To find the probabilities, consider first the sample space S 1 ={H, T} which results
from a single toss of the coin. Assigning the probability x for a head and 3x for a tail and
using the property of probabilities that P(S1) = 1, we have
x + 3x = 1
4x = 1
1
x=
4
1 3
Hence, P(H) = and P(T) =
4 4

Now, P(HHT) = P(H∩H∩T) = P(H)P(H)P(T) (Each toss is independent)

1 1 3 3
= ( )( )( ) =
4 4 4 64
3
Next, P(HTH) = P(THH) = P(HHT) =
64

Therefore, the probability of getting 2 heads and a tail in 3 tosses of the coin is given by
3 3 3 9
P(HHT) + P(HTH) + P(THH) = + + =
64 64 64 64

Example 10: A bag contains 5 blue balls and 6 green balls. A second bag contains 4 blue
balls and 7 green balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in the second
bag. Now, what is the probability of drawing a blue ball from the second bag?
Solution:
Let B1 = event of drawing a blue ball from bag 1
G1 = event of drawing a green ball from bag 1
B2 = event of drawing a blue ball from bag 2
The possibilities are shown in the tree diagram below

5 5
B P(B1∩B2)=( ) ( )
11 12

Bag 2 5/12
5B,7G G 5 7
B P(B1∩G)=( ) ( )
7/12 11 12
5/11
Bag 1
5B, 6G 6 4
B P(G∩B2)=( ) ( )
11 12
G 4/12
Bag 2
6/11
4B, 8G G
6 8
8/12 P(G1∩G2)=( ) ( )
11 12

20
We are interested in the union of events B1∩B2 and G∩B2. So,
5 5 6 4 25 24 49
P[(B1∩B2)∪ (G∩B2)] = P(B1∩B2) + P(G∩B2) = ( ) ( ) + ( ) ( ) = + =
11 12 11 12 132 132 132
49
Therefore, the probability of drawing a blue ball from the second bag is .
132

Now, it is your turn. Practice your skill by answering the next activity.

What’s More

Activity 2: Solve the problems.

1. A hospital has 2 ambulances operating independently. The probability that that a specific
ambulance is available when needed is 0.95.
a) What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
b) What is the probability an ambulance is available when needed?

2. The probability that Jim will be alive in 15 years is 0.78, and the probability that Noel will be
alive in 15 years is 0.93. What is the probability that neither will be alive in 15 years?

What I Have Learned

1. The probability of an event occurring knowing that an event has already occurred is called
conditional probability
2.The conditional probability is the probability of 𝐵, given 𝐴, denoted by 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)is
defined by
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃 ( 𝐵 | 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴)
if 𝑃 (𝐴 ) > 0
3. Two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent if and only if
𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴).
Otherwise, 𝐴 and 𝐵 are dependent.
4. If A and B are events in an experiment that can both occur, then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴)𝑃(𝐴).
5. If A and B are independent events, i.e., 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) or 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)

What I Can Do
Solve the problem.

A bag contains 6 bellow balls, 4 red balls and 3 white balls. A second bag contains 4
yellow balls, 5 red balls, and 2 white balls. One ball from the second bag is taken and placed
unseen in the first bag.
a) What is the probability of drawing a white ball from the first bag?
b) What is the probability of drawing a yellow ball from the first bag?

21
 Assessment

Multiple Choice. Read the given questions carefully and answer each item correctly.
Write the letter of your choice on a separate sheet.

1. Which is a probability experiment?

A. Choosing a letter from the English alphabet
B. Mixing flour, baking powder, and monosodium glutamate in a bowl.
C. Adding one tablespoon salt into a beaker with 100 mL of carbonated water.
D. Leaving a bowl of saline solution under the sun from 11:30 AM to 2:00 PM.

2. How many elements are there in the sample space if three dice are thrown simultaneously?
A. 3 B. 6 C. 18 D. 216

3. The permutations of the word FOURTH are written in strips of paper, one permutation per
strip and placed in a box. If a strip of paper is drawn from the box, what is the probability
that the permutation begins with a vowel?
A. 1/6 B. 1/3 C. ½ D. 2/3

4. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the probability of getting a sum of at most 4?
A. 1/12 B. 1/9 C. 1/6 D. ¼

For items 5 – 6 refer to the situation below.

The probability that Edna will take Statistics this semester is 0.84. The probability that she
will enroll English 5 this semester is 0.79. The probability that she will enroll both subjects is
0.72.

5. What is the probability that she will enroll either Statistics or English 5?
A. 0.91 B. 0.77 C. 0.67 D. 0.57

6. What is the probability that she will not enroll in both subjects?
A. 0.09 B. 0.23 C. 0.33 D. 0.43

For items 7-8, refer to the situation below.

There are 48 club members of which 25 are grade 10 and 32 club members are males.
There are 12 grade 10 males. A club member is selected at random.

7. What is the probability that the member is male but not Grade 10?
A. 2/3 B. 13/48 C. ¼ D. 1/3

8. What is the probability that the member is neither grade 10 nor male?
A. 2/3 B. 1/3 C. ¼ D. 1/16

22
For items 9 and 10, refer to the situation below.

In a Special Science Class with 18 boys and 22 girls, it is observed that 8 boys and 10
girls are always in uniform. A student is picked at random from this class.

9. What is the probability that the student always wears uniform given that he is boy?
1 1 4 9
A. B. C. D.
5 4 9 20
10. What is the probability of wearing a uniform and being a boy?
1 1 4 9
A. B. C. D.
5 4 9 20
11. Which events are independent?
A. Drawing 2 letter from the English alphabet without replacement
B. Choosing two delegates from a group to attend a conference
C. Selecting three representatives from a group
D. Throwing a die twice

For items 12-13, refer to the situation below.

The probability that a married man watches “24 Oras” is 0.52 and a married woman
watches the show is 0.58. The probability that a married man watches the show given that
his wife does 0s 0.84

12. What is the probability that a married couple watches the show?
A. 0.4368 B. 0.4872 C. 0.7531 D. 0.9375

13. What is the probability that a wife watches the show given that her husband does?
A. 0.4368 B. 0.4872 C. 0.7531 D. 0.9375

23
Answer Key

24
References
.
Downie, N.M. and R.W. Heath. 1984. Basic Statistical Methods. Harper and Row Publishers,
Inc.

Hanneman, R.A., A.J. Kposowa, and M.D. Riddle. 2013. Basic Statistics for Social
Research. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Walpole, R.E., R.H. Myers, and S.H. Myers. 2000. Probability and Statistics for Engineers
and Scientists. Prentice Hall, Inc.

Webster, A. 1992. Applied Statistics for Business and Economics. Richard D. Irwin, Inc.

Ymas, S.E. Jr., B.C. Dayrit, and A.G. Turqueza. 2007. College Statistics. Ymas Publishing
House.

25
For inquiries or feedback, please write or call:
Department of Education – Schools Division of Laoag City
Curriculum Implementation Division (CID)
Brgy. 23 San Matias, Laoag City 2900
Contact Number: (077) 771-3678
Email Address: laoag.city@deped.gov.ph