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Capital structure affects firm value if it alters investment (and hence, CFs).
Today’s Key Idea: Leverage may change the value of the firm by altering the incentives of
those making investment decisions (i.e, the size of the pie may depend on how it is shared).
1. Debt may increase firm value by deterring “bad” investment; or
2. Debt may decrease firm value by curtailing “good” investment.
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Debt’s Bright Side
Introduction
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What Can Go Wrong?
STOCKHOLDERS
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FINANCIAL MARKETS
The Agency Problem (1)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
The interests of shareholders and those of managers are not always perfectly aligned.
Potential problems include:
Reduced effort;
Perks; and
Empire building.
These conflicts between shareholders (“principals”) and managers (i.e., their “agents”) are
called “agency problems”.
Equity investors know that managers may pursue value-destroying strategies.
↓stock value.
Entrepreneurs have an incentive to mitigate agency conflicts.
Example. “Stage financing” in VC (money raised in multiple rounds).
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The Agency Problem (2)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Some firms have CFs in excess of what is required to fund all NPVs>0. Such firms are
said to have “Free Cash Flow” and referred to as “Cash Cows”.
Example: Tobacco. High earnings but declining demand. Do they give back the
money to shareholder or do they buy food companies?
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The Agency Problem (3)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
The idea is that is the firm's free cash flow is dedicated for a payout, such as interest
payments, managers will not be able to use this free cash flow to pursue negative NPV
projects they like for fear of bankruptcy.
If managers want more cash, they have to come to the capital market. The idea is to tie
the manager's hands.
The best example of this strategy in action is leveraged recapitalizations (buying back
stock with debt), which result in large increases in the value of the companies that did it.
Creditors face smaller free-rider problems, but D is not for all firms!
Obviously, the cost is lost flexibility but this might be OK for mature companies
In addition, next year an investment opportunity will be available to invest $50 M in Year 1 in
exchange for CFs in Year 2 of:
$60 M with prob 1/2; or
$40 M with prob 1/2.
Everyone knows whether the firm has a good or bad project BEFORE making the $50 M
investment.
Managers come in two flavors: (1) “Good” managers (only pursue NPV>0); and (2) “Empire
builders” (pursue NPV>0 and NPV<0).
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Free CF (3) -- Example
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Assume that LEVERED is identical to ALLEQUITY except that LEVERED has $50 M in debt
maturing in Year 1 and $50 M in senior debt due in Year 2.
How much is LEVERED worth with an “empire builder”?
The empire builder with a bad project cannot raise financing to invest. So, how much is a
firm with bad projects worth?
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Free CF (3) -- Example
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
The empire builder with a good project can raise $50 in financing to invest. So, how much
is a firm with a good project worth?
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Free CF (3) -- Example
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
The empire builder with a good project can raise $50 in financing to invest. So, how much
is a firm with a good project worth?
The firm would have CFs of $110 in Year 2. It would pay:
$50 to senior creditors;
$50 to junior creditors (i.e. enough to recoup their $50 capital); and
$10 to shareholders.
The firm with a good project is worth $110 (=$50+$60).
Key Insight:: Debt eliminated the discretion of bad managers to pursue NPV<0.
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Debt’s Dark Side
The Conflict of Interest between
Debtholders and Stockholders
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Given the firm’s investment policy, the way in which the firm’s cash flows are
bundled into different securities does not matter (M&M).
But the firm's capital structure may in fact matter because the capital structure
actually has effects on the operations of the firm (investment policy).
One way this can happen is for equity-holders (who have the votes) to make
investment decisions that increase their share of the firm’s cash flows at the
expense of bondholders (while possibly decreasing the total value of cash
flows available).
The interests of shareholders and creditors may diverge when debt is large (relative to the
value of equity).
In an unlevered firm, the payoff to equity increases $1 for $1 with increases in firm
value.
Payoff to the shareholders of an all-equity Firm
Payoff
Payoff to debt
Suppose investors are risk-neutral and seek to maximize the expected value of the
firm:
Risk Shifting: Risky Projects Example (2)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
But, imagine the firm had debt outstanding for $100. Then shareholders would choose the
risky project. To see this, compute the expected cash-flows to shareholders:
Key Intuition:
Risk Shifting: Risky Projects Example (2)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
But, imagine the firm had debt outstanding for $100. Then shareholders would choose the
risky project. To see this, compute the expected cash-flows to shareholders:
Key Intuition:
The high risk project yields higher cash-flows in booms and lower in recessions.
The increase in value in a boom is captured fully by shareholders, because
bondholders are always paid in full, regardless of the project chosen.
The drop in value in a recession is lost by bondholders, because they only receive
$50 with the high risk project. The shareholders will receive nothing in a recession
anyway.
ALLEQUITY has 100M in cash. In addition, it runs a business that has fallen on hard
times. It faces two options:
1. Immediate liquidation: Get $140M for sure; or
2. Reorganization: Get $200M with 50% probability and $0 otherwise.
Which strategy do shareholders in ALLEQUITY choose? How much is the firm worth
under each of the two strategies?
NPV1=
NPV2=
Shareholders choose project …..
The firm is worth $.....
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Risk Shifting: Insolvency Example (2)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
LEVERED is a twin firm identical to ALLEQUITY in every respect except that it has
borrowed $100M (i.e., it owes $100M).
Creditors assumed that the firm would liquidate (i.e., follow optimal investment policy).
Will the firm liquidate?
Liquidation: payoff to shareholders =
Reorganization: payoff to shareholders =
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Risk Shifting: Insolvency Example (3)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
However, creditors will (sooner or later) figure out that the firm will not voluntarily liquidate.
What is the face value of debt (FV) if the firm raises $100M and creditors anticipate
reorganization?
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Risk Shifting: Insolvency Example (4)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
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Debt Overhang (1)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Two questions:
(1) Is this a good project if Investors are risk-neutral and the interest rate is zero?; and
(2) If XYZ has no cash on hand, should shareholders raise new funds to pay for the
project? 26
Debt Overhang (2)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Does Well
Does Poorly
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Debt Overhang (3)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Example: Suppose creditors propose to write down the FV of debt to $24 IF shareholders
undertake the project. Would shareholders accept the proposal?
If they refuse the offer, the expected value of their equity next period is:
If they accept the offer, the expected value of their equity next period is:
Debt Overhang (4)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
The problem also goes away if creditors contribute new capital to pay for project.
Coordination problems may prevent creditors from contributing fresh funds. Hence,
firms with valuable future growth opportunities should prefer:
Bank debt rather than public bonds;
Few rather than many banks;
Relationship banking rather than arms-length lending;
Simple rather than complex debt structures (e.g., creditors with similar seniority,
maturity, or security).
One way to avoid the coordination problem, is to issue senior debt to pay for the new
investment.
Senior debt would get fully paid in our example.
However, covenants may preclude the issuance of senior debt.
☛Obvious Practical Implication: Firms that29 expect to have valuable future growth
opportunities should avoid too much debt.
Cash-in and run
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Leave creditors with an empty shell by paying a large dividend or repurchasing a large
number of shares. Examples:
Turkey’s Banking Crisis.
“Turkish banks taken over by the government are owed about $12 billion by
customers that have defaulted on loans.... Some 80 percent of the bad loans were
given to companies that belong to the banks' former owners...” (Bloomberg 3-28).
Kaiser Steel Corporation / Asset Stripping.
Messrs. Frates and Rial acquired Kaiser in an LBO.
Following the LBO, Kaiser formed a wholly-owned subsidiary, Kaiser Coal
Corporation, to hold its coal reserves.
This entity then borrowed against the coal reserves (see next page).
The loan proceeds were dividended up to Kaiser Steel and part of them were
used to repay Citibank and bondholders (because they both were protected by
bond covenants).
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Cashing in at Kaiser
Marriott’s Strategy:
Split company into two separate entities: (1) Lodging and service management; and
(2) Real estate holdings
Put most of the debt on the balance sheet of the real estate firm & spin off the lodging
assets to shareholders → expropriate growth opportunities → bondholders forgot to
include covenants against such transactions.
→ The stock price rose 12% on the announcement; but
→ Bond prices fell 10%. 33
Solutions
Raise the Cost of Debt
Bondholders know that when financial distress is imminent, they cannot expect
help from shareholders.
Because shareholders have to pay these higher interest costs, they ultimately
bear the costs of the investment distortions imposed by debt.
Bond Covenants (1)
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Companies with growth opportunities may choose to have an increasing financing leverage.
By choosing a higher leverage, many companies choose to finance projects by issuing long-
term debt.
Long-term financiers may require additional support from shareholders to enter into a long-
term financing agreement, such as restrictions on dividend payments, additional leverage,
collateral structures and so forth.
2. Restriction on dividends
Allow payments of dividends only if sufficient payable funds exist. Payable funds are a
function of earnings, assets, leverage and past dividends.
3. Restriction on merger activity (Poison Puts)
Bondholder has the right to sell the bond back to company at some given price if some
specific event (such as a takeover) occurs.
4. Restriction on disposition of assets
restrictions on asset sales unless used to retire debt
restrictions mandating maintenance of assets
restrictions on investment in financial securities, which prevent stockholders from
increasing risk
5. Restriction on net worth
Mandatory debt retirement at par if net worth falls below specified minimum
Caveat: Having too many covenants may 37 also be costly since it can severely restrict the
flexibility of firms to make investment, financing, or dividend decisions.
Bond Covenants in the U.S.
FCF problem Risk Shifting Debt Overhang Cash-in Play for time Bait and Switch Solutions
Smith and Warner report some numbers on different classes of restrictions imposed in bond
indentures in the U.S.:
90.8% restrict issuance of additional debt (Bait and switch).
23% restrict dividend payments (Cash-in and run).
39% restrict merger activity (Risk shifting).
35.6% restrict disposition of assets (Risk shifting, cash-in and run).
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Bond Covenants in the U.S. across time
Source: Du (2015)
Determinants of Bond Covenants in the U.S.
1. Delegated monitoring. Rather than have detailed covenants, we could have a “close”
lender offering short-term debt and monitoring the firm on behalf of itself and other
creditors. Such lender would have more “control” over the borrower's activities because it
could always threaten not to renew its loan to the firm. This may be the primary purpose of
bank debt.
2. Security design. Basic intuition is to give bondholders a piece of the pie if things go well.
Contracts like convertibles may mitigate the risk-shifting problem. Shareholders know that
debt holders will convert if risky projects pay off. This softens shareholders’ incentive to
take risky NPV<0 projects.
3. Management compensation contracts can be structured so that management takes the
interests of all claim-holders into account.
4. Reputation. If you plan to be an entrepreneur or an executive for a long time, you don’t
want to go around reneging on your contracts and disappointing creditors. This will make
it hard to borrow money in the future.
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A Comprehensive Example:
The Case of Goodyear (1)
The Diversification:
Manufacturer of rubber products. The firm has tried to diversify into oil and gas and to
build an oil pipeline from Texas to California without much success.
It decided to initiate a diversification strategy based on acquiring several oil producers.
Shareholders did not react favorably to the diversification plans and the stock price fell
65% (relative to the S&P) over the 3 1/2 years that followed the diversification strategy.
Lowering Agency Costs: The new debt from the levered recapitalization can be
thought of as a type of control device for the shareholders of Goodyear to limit the
choices faced by management.
Costs
Financial Distress: Its debt was downgraded. Its level of investment fell from 1/5 billion
to 750 million (perhaps not a bad thing).
Financial Slack: Loss of financial slack can preclude strategic options if competitors cut
prices or increase capital spending.
Many people think that this is what happened when Bridgestone announced intentions
to raise capital spending in USA. Goodyear could not counter by raising investment. To
do so would have required raising equity costly option (pecking order).
Things to Remember (1)
M&M assumes that investment policy is unaffected by the firm’s capital structure. This
ignores that the way the CF is divided between shareholders and creditors may affect the
firm’s investment policy (and thus change its CFs and value).
However, it is quite plausible that investment may directly be affected by capital structure.
Leverage may reduce wasteful investments. It may also induce managers and
employees to work harder.
If the value of the firm is close to the face value of debt, shareholders may invest in
NPV<0 projects with high upside profits.
If the value of the firm is lower than the face value of debt, shareholders will not want to
invest fresh funds in NPV>0 projects as they will eventually loose their equity in the
firm (even if the new projects succeed).
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Things to Remember (2)
Shareholders can resort to many other methods to separate creditors from their
money, such as play for time, bait and switch, etc.
Creditors will anticipate this behavior and demand higher interest rates. As a result,
fewer NPV>0 will be pursued.
To prevent the expropriation of creditors, various forms of creditor protection have arisen,
including bond covenants, delegated monitoring, and security design.
These solutions are imperfect. For example, rules against issuing new debt may
avoid bait-and-switch. At the same time, they may worsen the debt- overhang
problems.
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Things to Remember (3)
Advantages of debt:
Interest is tax deductible.
Bonds management promise to pay out cash in a way that dividends can’t.
Costs of debt:
Agency conflicts between bondholders and shareholders.
Financial distress.
Bankruptcy
Appendix:
Examples of Bond Covenants
Examples of Covenants (1)