Motor claims and ruin theory

Day Claims
1 479
2 465
3 420
4 469
5 413
6 419
7 479
8 443
9 456
10 494
11 437
12 463
13 447
14 432
15 481
16 427
17 485
18 456
19 428
20 484
21 453
22 411
23 492
24 454
25 459
26 443
27 407
28 435
29 414
30 477
31 491
32 494
33 416
34 488
35 402
36 468
37 423
38 447
39 439
40 434
41 461
42 461
43 1416
44 499
45 500
46 455
47 495
48 473
49 401
50 478
51 473
52 491
53 442
54 475
55 451
56 500
57 428
58 463
59 458
60 464
61 489
62 417
63 420
64 469
65 474
66 451
67 472
68 450
69 433
70 405
71 438
72 464
73 401
74 463
75 408
76 409
77 446
78 411
79 456
80 446
81 459
82 434
83 482
84 440
85 435
86 415
87 433
88 422
89 402
90 419
91 605
92 610
93 654
94 696
95 630
96 677
97 625
98 643
99 661
100 679
101 624
102 629
103 697
104 613
105 699
106 616
107 674
108 685
109 628
110 684
111 620
112 688
113 670
114 689
115 621
116 680
117 662
118 690
119 1614
120 665
121 630
122 690
123 662
124 638
125 608
126 652
127 699
128 615
129 628
130 634
131 656
132 652
133 668
134 660
135 618
136 643
137 671
138 673
139 606
140 1625
141 641
142 615
143 657
144 691
145 679
146 675
147 677
148 693
149 2630
150 659
151 693
152 634
153 612
154 630
155 657
156 665
157 654
158 609
159 651
160 678
161 4645
162 676
163 635
164 657
165 627
166 606
167 648
168 605
169 602
170 661
171 689
172 693
173 686
174 620
175 609
176 656
177 682
178 663
179 632
180 659
181 645
182 688
183 689
184 665
185 626
186 674
187 680
188 607
189 612
190 671
191 613
192 669
193 3611
194 623
195 607
196 696
197 668
198 625
199 644
200 2652
201 683
202 676
203 620
204 699
205 662
206 680
207 606
208 641
209 637
210 674
211 635
212 656
213 672
214 672
215 631
216 631
217 630
218 657
219 696
220 634
221 624
222 669
223 669
224 652
225 660
226 605
227 606
228 618
229 628
230 647
231 698
232 695
233 616
234 648
235 647
236 654
237 653
238 692
239 660
240 697
241 643
242 686
243 680
244 617
245 629
246 632
247 631
248 695
249 692
250 611
251 680
252 646
253 608
254 620
255 647
256 684
257 673
258 641
259 636
260 1666
261 671
262 616
263 634
264 631
265 683
266 628
267 689
268 606
269 679
270 438
271 483
272 453
273 417
274 471
275 417
276 453
277 432
278 489
279 436
280 410
281 450
282 401
283 438
284 468
285 477
286 494
287 422
288 464
289 491
290 455
291 481
292 434
293 463
294 451
295 476
296 415
297 461
298 410
299 483
300 464
301 413
302 426
303 427
304 434
305 477
306 423
307 454
308 401
309 487
310 424
311 469
312 409
313 466
314 403
315 451
316 425
317 460
318 498
319 420
320 466
321 443
322 1443
323 433
324 428
325 476
326 409
327 446
328 425
329 450
330 421
331 471
332 483
333 474
334 485
335 479
336 494
337 439
338 442
339 482
340 433
341 433
342 483
343 446
344 494
345 422
346 411
347 494
348 441
349 419
350 464
351 485
352 440
353 453
354 426
355 460
356 416
357 483
358 423
359 475
360 478
361 405
362 473
363 496
364 413
365 445
Motor claims and ruin theory
Profit 5%
Base case Higher Higher intial
premiums surplus

Initial surplus 0 0 4,709

Total claims 216,191 216,191 216,191 Surplus
Annual premium 227,001 227,001 227,001 20,000
Daily premium 622 640 622
Minimum surplus -4,709 133 0 15,000

10,000
Day Claims Surplus Surplus Surplus
1 479 143 161 4,852 5,000
2 465 300 336 5,009
3 420 502 556 5,211 -35
0
15 65 115 165 215 265 315 365
4 469 655 727 5,364
-5,000
5 413 864 954 5,573
6 419 1,067 1,175 5,776 -10,000
7 479 1,210 1,336 5,919 Days
8 443 1,389 1,533 6,098
9 456 1,555 1,717 6,264
10 494 1,683 1,863 6,392
11 437 1,868 2,066 6,577
12 463 2,027 2,243 6,736
13 447 2,202 2,436 6,911
14 432 2,392 2,644 7,101
15 481 2,533 2,803 7,242
16 427 2,728 3,016 7,437
17 485 2,865 3,171 7,574
18 456 3,031 3,355 7,740
19 428 3,225 3,567 7,934
20 484 3,363 3,723 8,072
21 453 3,532 3,910 8,241
22 411 3,743 4,139 8,452
23 492 3,873 4,287 8,582
24 454 4,041 4,473 8,750
25 459 4,204 4,654 8,913
26 443 4,383 4,851 9,092
27 407 4,598 5,084 9,307
28 435 4,785 5,289 9,494
29 414 4,993 5,515 9,702
30 477 5,138 5,678 9,847
31 491 5,269 5,827 9,978
32 494 5,397 5,973 10,106
33 416 5,603 6,197 10,312
34 488 5,737 6,349 10,446
35 402 5,957 6,587 10,666
36 468 6,111 6,759 10,820
37 423 6,310 6,976 11,019
38 447 6,485 7,169 11,194
39 439 6,668 7,370 11,377
40 434 6,856 7,576 11,565
41 461 7,017 7,755 11,726
42 461 7,178 7,934 11,887
43 1416 6,384 7,158 11,093
44 499 6,507 7,299 11,216
45 500 6,629 7,439 11,338
46 455 6,796 7,624 11,505
47 495 6,923 7,769 11,632
48 473 7,072 7,936 11,781
49 401 7,293 8,175 12,002
50 478 7,437 8,337 12,146
51 473 7,586 8,504 12,295
52 491 7,717 8,653 12,426
53 442 7,897 8,851 12,606
54 475 8,044 9,016 12,753
55 451 8,215 9,205 12,924
56 500 8,337 9,345 13,046
57 428 8,531 9,557 13,240
58 463 8,690 9,734 13,399
59 458 8,854 9,916 13,563
60 464 9,012 10,092 13,721
61 489 9,145 10,243 13,854
62 417 9,350 10,466 14,059
63 420 9,552 10,686 14,261
64 469 9,705 10,857 14,414
65 474 9,853 11,023 14,562
66 451 10,024 11,212 14,733
67 472 10,174 11,380 14,883
68 450 10,346 11,570 15,055
69 433 10,535 11,777 15,244
70 405 10,752 12,012 15,461
71 438 10,936 12,214 15,645
72 464 11,094 12,390 15,803
73 401 11,315 12,629 16,024
74 463 11,474 12,806 16,183
75 408 11,688 13,038 16,397
76 409 11,901 13,269 16,610
77 446 12,077 13,463 16,786
78 411 12,288 13,692 16,997
79 456 12,454 13,876 17,163
80 446 12,630 14,070 17,339
81 459 12,793 14,251 17,502
82 434 12,981 14,457 17,690
83 482 13,121 14,615 17,830
84 440 13,303 14,815 18,012
85 435 13,490 15,020 18,199
86 415 13,697 15,245 18,406
87 433 13,886 15,452 18,595
88 422 14,086 15,670 18,795
89 402 14,306 15,908 19,015
90 419 14,509 16,129 19,218
91 605 14,526 16,164 19,235
92 610 14,538 16,194 19,247
93 654 14,506 16,180 19,215
94 696 14,432 16,124 19,141
95 630 14,424 16,134 19,133
96 677 14,369 16,097 19,078
97 625 14,366 16,112 19,075
98 643 14,345 16,109 19,054
99 661 14,306 16,088 19,015
100 679 14,249 16,049 18,958
101 624 14,247 16,065 18,956
102 629 14,240 16,076 18,949
103 697 14,165 16,019 18,874
104 613 14,174 16,046 18,883
105 699 14,097 15,987 18,806
106 616 14,103 16,011 18,812
107 674 14,051 15,977 18,760
108 685 13,988 15,932 18,697
109 628 13,982 15,944 18,691
110 684 13,920 15,900 18,629
111 620 13,922 15,920 18,631
112 688 13,856 15,872 18,565
113 670 13,808 15,842 18,517
114 689 13,741 15,793 18,450
115 621 13,742 15,812 18,451
116 680 13,684 15,772 18,393
117 662 13,644 15,750 18,353
118 690 13,576 15,700 18,285
119 1614 12,584 14,726 17,293
120 665 12,541 14,701 17,250
121 630 12,533 14,711 17,242
122 690 12,465 14,661 17,174
123 662 12,425 14,639 17,134
124 638 12,409 14,641 17,118
125 608 12,423 14,673 17,132
126 652 12,393 14,661 17,102
127 699 12,316 14,602 17,025
128 615 12,323 14,627 17,032
129 628 12,317 14,639 17,026
130 634 12,305 14,645 17,014
131 656 12,271 14,629 16,980
132 652 12,241 14,617 16,950
133 668 12,195 14,589 16,904
134 660 12,157 14,569 16,866
135 618 12,161 14,591 16,870
136 643 12,140 14,588 16,849
137 671 12,091 14,557 16,800
138 673 12,040 14,524 16,749
139 606 12,056 14,558 16,765
140 1625 11,053 13,573 15,762
141 641 11,034 13,572 15,743
142 615 11,041 13,597 15,750
143 657 11,006 13,580 15,715
144 691 10,937 13,529 15,646
145 679 10,880 13,490 15,589
146 675 10,827 13,455 15,536
147 677 10,772 13,418 15,481
148 693 10,701 13,365 15,410
149 2630 8,693 11,375 13,402
150 659 8,656 11,356 13,365
151 693 8,585 11,303 13,294
152 634 8,573 11,309 13,282
153 612 8,583 11,337 13,292
154 630 8,575 11,347 13,284
155 657 8,540 11,330 13,249
156 665 8,497 11,305 13,206
157 654 8,465 11,291 13,174
158 609 8,478 11,322 13,187
159 651 8,449 11,311 13,158
160 678 8,393 11,273 13,102
161 4645 4,370 7,268 9,079
162 676 4,316 7,232 9,025
163 635 4,303 7,237 9,012
164 657 4,268 7,220 8,977
165 627 4,263 7,233 8,972
166 606 4,279 7,267 8,988
167 648 4,253 7,259 8,962
168 605 4,270 7,294 8,979
169 602 4,290 7,332 8,999
170 661 4,251 7,311 8,960
171 689 4,184 7,262 8,893
172 693 4,113 7,209 8,822
173 686 4,049 7,163 8,758
174 620 4,051 7,183 8,760
175 609 4,064 7,214 8,773
176 656 4,030 7,198 8,739
177 682 3,970 7,156 8,679
178 663 3,929 7,133 8,638
179 632 3,919 7,141 8,628
180 659 3,882 7,122 8,591
181 645 3,859 7,117 8,568
182 688 3,793 7,069 8,502
183 689 3,726 7,020 8,435
184 665 3,683 6,995 8,392
185 626 3,679 7,009 8,388
186 674 3,627 6,975 8,336
187 680 3,569 6,935 8,278
188 607 3,584 6,968 8,293
189 612 3,594 6,996 8,303
190 671 3,545 6,965 8,254
191 613 3,554 6,992 8,263
192 669 3,507 6,963 8,216
193 3611 518 3,992 5,227
194 623 517 4,009 5,226
195 607 532 4,042 5,241
196 696 458 3,986 5,167
197 668 412 3,958 5,121
198 625 409 3,973 5,118
199 644 387 3,969 5,096
200 2652 -1,643 1,957 3,066
201 683 -1,704 1,914 3,005
202 676 -1,758 1,878 2,951
203 620 -1,756 1,898 2,953
204 699 -1,833 1,839 2,876
205 662 -1,873 1,817 2,836
206 680 -1,931 1,777 2,778
207 606 -1,915 1,811 2,794
208 641 -1,934 1,810 2,775
209 637 -1,949 1,813 2,760
210 674 -2,001 1,779 2,708
211 635 -2,014 1,784 2,695
212 656 -2,048 1,768 2,661
213 672 -2,098 1,736 2,611
214 672 -2,148 1,704 2,561
215 631 -2,157 1,713 2,552
216 631 -2,166 1,722 2,543
217 630 -2,174 1,732 2,535
218 657 -2,209 1,715 2,500
219 696 -2,283 1,659 2,426
220 634 -2,295 1,665 2,414
221 624 -2,297 1,681 2,412
222 669 -2,344 1,652 2,365
223 669 -2,391 1,623 2,318
224 652 -2,421 1,611 2,288
225 660 -2,459 1,591 2,250
226 605 -2,442 1,626 2,267
227 606 -2,426 1,660 2,283
228 618 -2,422 1,682 2,287
229 628 -2,428 1,694 2,281
230 647 -2,453 1,687 2,256
231 698 -2,529 1,629 2,180
232 695 -2,602 1,574 2,107
233 616 -2,596 1,598 2,113
234 648 -2,622 1,590 2,087
235 647 -2,647 1,583 2,062
236 654 -2,679 1,569 2,030
237 653 -2,710 1,556 1,999
238 692 -2,780 1,504 1,929
239 660 -2,818 1,484 1,891
240 697 -2,893 1,427 1,816
241 643 -2,914 1,424 1,795
242 686 -2,978 1,378 1,731
243 680 -3,036 1,338 1,673
244 617 -3,031 1,361 1,678
245 629 -3,038 1,372 1,671
246 632 -3,048 1,380 1,661
247 631 -3,057 1,389 1,652
248 695 -3,130 1,334 1,579
249 692 -3,200 1,282 1,509
250 611 -3,189 1,311 1,520
251 680 -3,247 1,271 1,462
252 646 -3,271 1,265 1,438
253 608 -3,257 1,297 1,452
254 620 -3,255 1,317 1,454
255 647 -3,280 1,310 1,429
256 684 -3,342 1,266 1,367
257 673 -3,393 1,233 1,316
258 641 -3,412 1,232 1,297
259 636 -3,426 1,236 1,283
260 1666 -4,470 210 239
261 671 -4,519 179 190
262 616 -4,513 203 196
263 634 -4,525 209 184
264 631 -4,534 218 175
265 683 -4,595 175 114
266 628 -4,601 187 108
267 689 -4,668 138 41
268 606 -4,652 172 57
269 679 -4,709 133 0
270 438 -4,525 335 184
271 483 -4,386 492 323
272 453 -4,217 679 492
273 417 -4,012 902 697
274 471 -3,861 1,071 848
275 417 -3,656 1,294 1,053
276 453 -3,487 1,481 1,222
277 432 -3,297 1,689 1,412
278 489 -3,164 1,840 1,545
279 436 -2,978 2,044 1,731
280 410 -2,766 2,274 1,943
281 450 -2,594 2,464 2,115
282 401 -2,373 2,703 2,336
283 438 -2,189 2,905 2,520
284 468 -2,035 3,077 2,674
285 477 -1,890 3,240 2,819
286 494 -1,762 3,386 2,947
287 422 -1,562 3,604 3,147
288 464 -1,404 3,780 3,305
289 491 -1,273 3,929 3,436
290 455 -1,106 4,114 3,603
291 481 -965 4,273 3,744
292 434 -777 4,479 3,932
293 463 -618 4,656 4,091
294 451 -447 4,845 4,262
295 476 -301 5,009 4,408
296 415 -94 5,234 4,615
297 461 67 5,413 4,776
298 410 279 5,643 4,988
299 483 418 5,800 5,127
300 464 576 5,976 5,285
301 413 785 6,203 5,494
302 426 981 6,417 5,690
303 427 1,176 6,630 5,885
304 434 1,364 6,836 6,073
305 477 1,509 6,999 6,218
306 423 1,708 7,216 6,417
307 454 1,876 7,402 6,585
308 401 2,097 7,641 6,806
309 487 2,232 7,794 6,941
310 424 2,430 8,010 7,139
311 469 2,583 8,181 7,292
312 409 2,796 8,412 7,505
313 466 2,952 8,586 7,661
314 403 3,171 8,823 7,880
315 451 3,342 9,012 8,051
316 425 3,539 9,227 8,248
317 460 3,701 9,407 8,410
318 498 3,825 9,549 8,534
319 420 4,027 9,769 8,736
320 466 4,183 9,943 8,892
321 443 4,362 10,140 9,071
322 1443 3,541 9,337 8,250
323 433 3,730 9,544 8,439
324 428 3,924 9,756 8,633
325 476 4,070 9,920 8,779
326 409 4,283 10,151 8,992
327 446 4,459 10,345 9,168
328 425 4,656 10,560 9,365
329 450 4,828 10,750 9,537
330 421 5,029 10,969 9,738
331 471 5,180 11,138 9,889
332 483 5,319 11,295 10,028
333 474 5,467 11,461 10,176
334 485 5,604 11,616 10,313
335 479 5,747 11,777 10,456
336 494 5,875 11,923 10,584
337 439 6,058 12,124 10,767
338 442 6,238 12,322 10,947
339 482 6,378 12,480 11,087
340 433 6,567 12,687 11,276
341 433 6,756 12,894 11,465
342 483 6,895 13,051 11,604
343 446 7,071 13,245 11,780
344 494 7,199 13,391 11,908
345 422 7,399 13,609 12,108
346 411 7,610 13,838 12,319
347 494 7,738 13,984 12,447
348 441 7,919 14,183 12,628
349 419 8,122 14,404 12,831
350 464 8,280 14,580 12,989
351 485 8,417 14,735 13,126
352 440 8,599 14,935 13,308
353 453 8,768 15,122 13,477
354 426 8,964 15,336 13,673
355 460 9,126 15,516 13,835
356 416 9,332 15,740 14,041
357 483 9,471 15,897 14,180
358 423 9,670 16,114 14,379
359 475 9,817 16,279 14,526
360 478 9,961 16,441 14,670
361 405 10,178 16,676 14,887
362 473 10,327 16,843 15,036
363 496 10,453 16,987 15,162
364 413 10,662 17,214 15,371
365 445 10,839 17,409 15,548
Motor claims and ruin theory
(i) Annual premiums of 227,001 would be sufficient to meet the claims.

(ii) Daily premium: 622

(v) The surplus first becomes negative, and so ruin occurs, at day: 200

(vi) Ruin is avoided if the minimum surplus does not become negative.
This can be achieved with a daily premium of: 640

(vii) Ruin is avoided if the minimum surplus does not become negative.
This can be achieved with an initial surplus of: 4,709