‫ﳎﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‬

‫ﺍ ﳌ ﺠ ﻠ ﺪ ) ‪ (٥‬ﺍ ﻟ ﻌ ﺪ ﺩ ) ‪(٢‬‬
‫ﺍ ﻹ ﺻ ﺪ ﺍﺭ ﺍ ﳋ ﺎ ﻣ ﺲ ﻋ ﺸ ﺮ‬
‫)‪٢٠٢٢ (٢٦٢-٢٤٣‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺩ ‪ .‬ﺻ ﺎ ﱀ ﻋ ﺒ ﺪ ﺍ ﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻦ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺮ ﻱ‬

‫ﻧﺸﺮ ﺇﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﴼ ﺑﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ‪ ٢٨ :‬ﻳﻮﻧﻴﺔ ‪٢٠٢٢‬ﻡ‬

‫ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﺠ ﺪ ﺩ ﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑ ﻊ ﳌ ﺮ ﻛ ﺰ ﲝ ﻮ ﺙ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﺠ ﺪ ﺩ ﺓ ﺑﻜ ﻮ ﻟﻮ ﺭ ﺍﺩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻠﺨ ﺺ‬

‫) ﺍﻟﻮ ﻻ ﻳﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﺤ ﺪ ﺓ ﺍﻷ ﻣ ﺮ ﻳﻜ ﻴ ﺔ ( ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻟ ﻘ ﺪ ﺍ ﻧ ﺘ ﻬ ﺖ ﻧ ﺘ ﺎ ﺋ ﺞ‬ ‫ﺗ ﺘ ﻨ ﺎ ﻭ ﻝ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍ ﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺔ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎ ﻳﺮ ﺓ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎء ﺓ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﻨﺸﺮ ﺃﻃﻠﺲ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫‪(Hargreaves-Samani,‬‬ ‫)‪1982‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤ ﻤ ﻠﻜ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺮ ﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻌ ﻮ ﺩ ﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺬ ﻱ ﰎ ﺇﳒ ﺎﺯ ﻩ ﰲ ﺳ ﻨﺔ‬ ‫‪(Hargreaves-Samani-Annandale,‬‬
‫‪ .1998‬ﻭﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫)‪ 2002‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﳌﺴ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﻣ ﺔ ﰲ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﻳﺮ ﺓ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 1991-1985‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬

‫‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﻻ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﺧ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺳ ﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻧ ﺘ ﺎ ﺋ ﺞ ﲢ ﻠ ﻴ ﻞ ﺍ ﻟ ﺘ ﺒ ﺎ ﻳ ﻨ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﻧﻴ ﺔ ﻟﻠ ﻤ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ‬ ‫‪Climatological Solar Radiation‬‬

‫)‪ (CSR‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻮﺍﺭﺯﻣﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻷ ﻥ ﻫ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍﻷ ﺧ ﲑ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄ ﺛﺮ ﺑﻌ ﺎﻣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﺰ ﻣ ﻦ ﻛ ﺒﻘ ﻴ ﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻌ ﻠ ﻤ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎ ﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻ ﺣ ﺼ ﺎﺋﻴ ﺔ ﺍﳌﺴ ﺘ ﺨ ﺪ ﻣ ﺔ ﰲ ﻗ ﻴ ﺎ ﺱ‬
‫ﻋ ﻨ ﺎ ﺻ ﺮ ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﺥ ﺍ ﻷ ﺧ ﺮ ﻯ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻗ ﺪ ﻭ ﻇ ﻔ ﺖ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍ ﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑﺎﺳ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﺍﻡ ﻋ ﻨﺎﺻ ﺮ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ )‪ (Tmax‬ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄ ﻘ ﺲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﺟ ﺮ ﺍﻫ ﺎ ﻣ ﻌ ﻬ ﺪ ﲝ ﻮ ﺙ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﳌ ﺪ ﻳﻨ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻠ ﻚ ﻋ ﺒﺪ‬
‫)‪ (Tmin‬ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺴﺠﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺻﺪ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﲟﺠﻤﻮﻉ ‪12‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌ ﺰ ﻳﺰ ﻟﻠﻌ ﻠﻮ ﻡ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ ﻨﻴ ﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌ ﺎﻭ ﻥ ﻣ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺨ ﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﻮ ﻃ ﲏ ﻟﻠﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ‬
‫ﳏ ﻄ ﺔ ﻣ ﻨ ﺎ ﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ﻟ ﻨ ﻔ ﺲ ﺍ ﻟ ﻔ ﺘ ﺮ ﺓ ﺍ ﳌ ﺬ ﻛ ﻮ ﺭ ﺓ ﰲ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍﲨ ﺎ ﱄ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪243‬‬
average of total solar radiation (Ra) ‫ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ ﺍﳉﻮﻱ‬
during the period 1985-1991 using (Hargreaves-Samani-) ‫ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﺑﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬
the climatological Solar Radiation
(CSR) model. The CSR model ‫ ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺪﺕ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ‬.Annandale, 2002
depends on several climatic and ‫ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻹ ﲨ ﺎﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻋ ﻠﻰ‬
statistical parameter algorithms in ‫ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎ ﻳﲑ ﻟ ﻔ ﺤ ﺺ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎ ء ﺓ ﺃ ﺩ ﺍ ء ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ ﺍﳌ ﺬ ﻛ ﻮ ﺭ ﻳﻦ ﻭ ﻫ ﻲ‬3
measurement of the daily average
KGE ‫ ﻭﻓﺤﺺ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ‬PBIAS ‫ﻓﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻱ‬
solar radiation conducted by the
Energy Research Institute of King ‫( ﻭﻓﺤﺺ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬Kling-Gupta Efficiency)
Abdulaziz City for Science and Coefficient of R2 ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴ ﲑ‬
Technology in cooperation and the
‫ ﻭﻛﺸﻔﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬.Determination)
National Renewable Energy
Laboratory of the Renewable (H-S ‫ ﲰﺎﱐ‬-‫ﻋﻦ ﺣﺴﻦ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﺃﺩﺍء ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻲ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻓﺰ‬
Energy Research Center in (H-S-A ‫ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ‬-‫ﲰﺎﱐ‬-‫ ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‬Model)
Colorado (USA). The results of the ‫ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬Model)
CSR model measurements were
published in the Atlas of Solar ‫ ﻣﻊ‬CSR ‫ﺑﺎﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬
Radiation for the Kingdom of Saudi ‫( ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬H-S-A Model) ‫ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﻧﺴﱯ ﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬
Arabia, which was completed By ‫ ﲟﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﻮﻑ‬CSR ‫ﻭﲤﺎﺛﻞ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻪ ﻣﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬
KACST in 1998. It should be noted
.‫ﻭ ﺟ ﺪ ﻩ ﻭ ﺷ ﺮ ﻭ ﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﻭ ﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺳ ﺮ‬
that the time period of solar
radiation measurements used in ‫ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬،‫ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ‬:‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ‬
calibrating the estimates of the (H-S ‫ ﲰﺎﱐ‬-‫ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻓﺰ‬،‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ‬
Hargreaves-Samani model does not
(H-S- ‫ ﲰﺎﱐ ﺍﳌﻄﻮﺭ‬-‫ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‬،Model)
affect the significance and quality
of the results, because the analysis ‫ ﻓﺤﺺ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﺃﺩﺍء‬،CSR ‫ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬،A Model)
of spatial variations of the daily . ‫ ﺍﳌ ﻤ ﻠﻜ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺮ ﺑﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻌ ﻮ ﺩ ﻳ ﺔ‬، ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬
solar radiation is not affected by the Abstract
time factor like other climatic This study deals with calibrating
variables. This study used the daily the efficiency of models
maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Hargreaves-Samani, 1982) and
(Tmin) temperatures available in the (Hargreaves-Samani-Annandale,
daily monitoring records of 12 2002) in estimating the daily
climatic stations for the common

‫ ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬CSR ‫ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬Hargreaves-Samani ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬ 244
 ‫* ﺍﳌﻘ ﺪ ﻣ ﺔ‬ ‫‪period (1985-1991) in estimating‬‬
‫‪the total daily solar radiation‬‬
‫ﺗ ﺆ ﻛ ﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺤ ﻮ ﺙ ﺍﻟﻌ ﻠ ﻤ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﳊ ﺪ ﻳﺜﺔ ﲟ ﺮ ﻭ ﺭ ﺍﻟﻮ ﻗ ﺖ ﺃﻥ‬
‫)‪outside the atmosphere (Ra‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻴ ﺔ ﻫ ﻲ ﺃﻫ ﻢ ﻣ ﺼ ﺪ ﺭ ﻟ ﻠﻄ ﺎﻗ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪ ﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠ ﺪ ﺩ ﺓ‬ ‫‪required by the Hargreaves-‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻈ ﻴﻔ ﺔ ﻭ ﻫ ﻲ ﺃﻛ ﺜﺮ ﻫ ﺎ ﻣ ﻼ ء ﻣ ﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌ ﺔ ﻭ ﻟﻠﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪Samani-Annandale model, 2002.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﳌ ﻌ ﺎﳉ ﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺳ ﺘﻬ ﻼ ﻙ ﺍﳌ ﻄ ﺮ ﺩ ﻟ ﻠ ﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﺘ ﻘ ﻠ ﻴ ﺪ ﻳ ﺔ ﻣ ﺎ ﻓ ﱴ ء ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻣ ﻰ‬ ‫‪The calibration of the estimated‬‬
‫‪daily average of total solar‬‬
‫ﻛ ﺜﲑ ﺍ ﺍﺳ ﺘﻐ ﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻴ ﺔ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟ ﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻘ ﺪ ﻣ ﺔ ﻧﻈ ﺮ ﴽ‬
‫‪radiation obtained by the two‬‬
‫ﻟﻺ ﻣ ﻜ ﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜ ﺒﲑ ﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻴﺤ ﻬ ﺎ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻴ ﺔ ﻛ ﺒﺪ ﻳﻞ‬ ‫‪studied models was based on 3‬‬
‫ﻷ ﻧﻮ ﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﻷ ﺣ ﻔ ﻮ ﺭ ﻳ ﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻐ ﺎﺯ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻔ ﺤ ﻢ ( ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻣ ﻊ‬ ‫‪criteria, which are the PBIAS test,‬‬
‫‪the KGE efficiency test (Kling-‬‬
‫ﺫ ﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﺰ ﺍﻳﺪ ﺃﻳﻀ ﴼ ﺍﻻ ﻫ ﺘﻤ ﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺳ ﺘﻐ ﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻴ ﺔ‬
‫‪Gupta Efficiency) and the R2‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘ ﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻄ ﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺍﺭ ﻳﺔ ﺍﳊ ﺎﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔ ﺘﻘ ﺮ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫‪coefficient of determination test.‬‬
‫ﻣ ﻮ ﺍﺭ ﺩ ﻃ ﺎ ﻗ ﻮ ﻳ ﺔ ﺗﻘ ﻠﻴﺪ ﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻛ ﺬ ﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘ ﻊ ﲟ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ‬ ‫‪So, the results of this study revealed‬‬
‫‪the good performance of the‬‬
‫ﺗ ﻀ ﺎ ﺭ ﻳﺴ ﻴ ﺔ ﺟ ﺒ ﻠ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﻋ ﺮ ﺓ ﻳ ﺘ ﻌ ﺬ ﺭ ﺗ ﺰ ﻭ ﻳ ﺪ ﻫ ﺎ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟ ﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻜ ﻬ ﺮ ﺑ ﺎ ﺋ ﻴ ﺔ‬
‫)‪Hargreaves-Samani (HS Model‬‬
‫ﺑ ﺴ ﻬ ﻮ ﻟ ﺔ ﺃ ﻭ ﺃ ﻥ ﺗ ﺰ ﻭ ﻳ ﺪ ﻫ ﺎ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍ ﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﻳ ﺘ ﻄ ﻠ ﺐ ﺗ ﻜ ﺎ ﻟ ﻴ ﻒ ﻣ ﺎ ﻟ ﻴ ﺔ‬ ‫‪and‬‬ ‫‪Hargreaves-Samani-‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻣ ﺎﺩ ﻳﺔ ﻛ ﺒﲑ ﺓ ﻻ ﺗﻜ ﻮ ﻥ ﻣ ﺘﺎﺣ ﺔ ﺑﻜ ﺜﲑ ﻣ ﻦ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪Annandale (HSA Model) in‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻳﺘﻄ ﻠﺐ ﺍﺳ ﺘﻐ ﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻴﺔ ﺗﻮ ﻓﲑ ﺷ ﺒﻜ ﺔ‬ ‫‪estimating the daily average solar‬‬
‫‪radiation in the studied stations‬‬
‫ﻣ ﻦ ﳏ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﺭ ﺻ ﺪ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻭ ﲢ ﻠ ﻴﻞ ﻣ ﻨﻈ ﻮ ﻣ ﺔ‬
‫‪compared to the measurements of‬‬
‫ﺗ ﻮ ﺯ ﻳ ﻌ ﻪ ﺍ ﳉ ﻐ ﺮ ﺍﰲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺰ ﻣ ﻦ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻧﻈ ﺮ ﴽ ﻟﺘﻌ ﺬ ﺭ ﺗﻮ ﻓﺮ ﳏ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ‬ ‫‪the CSR model. Therefore, the‬‬
‫ﺭ ﺻ ﺪ ﻭ ﻗ ﻴ ﺎ ﺱ ﺍ ﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﰲ ﻛ ﺜ ﲑ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍ ﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﻃ ﻖ‬ ‫‪study results revealed a relative‬‬
‫‪superiority of the (HSA Model) in‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌ ﺎﱂ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺪ ﻳﺪ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣ ﺜﲔ ﺑﺎﺷ ﺘﻘ ﺎﻕ ﳕ ﺎﺫ ﺝ ﻭ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻻ ﺕ‬
‫‪estimation and its results are similar‬‬
‫ﺭ ﻳﺎﺿ ﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺯ ﻣ ﻨﻴﴼ ﻭ ﻣ ﻜ ﺎﻧﻴﴼ‬ ‫‪with the CSR model at Al-Jawf,‬‬
‫ﺑ ﺘ ﻮ ﻇ ﻴ ﻒ ﺍ ﻟ ﻌ ﺪ ﻳ ﺪ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍ ﻟ ﻌ ﻨ ﺎ ﺻ ﺮ ﺍ ﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ﻛ ﺎﻷ ﻣ ﻄ ﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺩ ﺭ ﺟ ﺔ‬ ‫‪Jeddah, Sharurah and Wadi Al-‬‬
‫‪Dawasir stations.‬‬
‫‪(Ghahreman‬‬ ‫&‬ ‫ﺩ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﺓ‬
‫‪KeyWords:‬‬ ‫‪Maximum‬‬
‫)‪ Bakhtiari, 2009‬ﲟﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﳉﺎﻑ ﻭﺷﺒﻪ‬ ‫‪temperature,‬‬ ‫‪Minimum‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺎﻑ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ )‪(Chen & Li, 2012‬‬ ‫‪temperature, Hargreaves-Samani‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺩ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ‬ ‫) ﺍﻟ ﺼ ﲔ (‬ ‫‪Yangtze‬‬ ‫¦ﺮ‬ ‫ﲝ ﻮﺽ‬ ‫‪model, Hargreaves-Samani model,‬‬
‫‪CSR model, Model performance‬‬
‫)‪ (Matsuda et al., 2006‬ﲜﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﳍﻤﻼﻳﺎ ﻭﻫﻀﺒﺔ‬
‫‪efficiency, Saudi Arabia.‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪245‬‬
‫‪Hargreaves-Samani‬‬
‫ﻭ‪Hargreaves-Samani-Annandale‬‬
‫ﲟ ﺠ ﻤ ﻮ ﻉ ﺃ ﺛ ﲎ ﻋ ﺸ ﺮ ﺓ ﳏ ﻄ ﺔ ﻣ ﻨﺎﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ﲤ ﺜﻞ ﻣ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ ﳐ ﺘﻠﻔ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ )ﺃ ﺎ ‪ (40112‬ﻭ )ﺍﻷﺣﺴﺎء ‪ (40420‬ﻭ‬
‫)ﺍﳉﻮﻑ ‪ (40361‬ﻭ )ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺼﻮﻣﺔ ‪ (40373‬ﻭ )ﺗﺒﻮﻙ‬
‫‪ (40375‬ﻭ )ﻣﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻠﻚ ﺧﺎﻟﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ ‪ (40437‬ﻭ‬
‫)ﻣﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻣﲑ ﻧﺎﻳﻒ ﺑﱪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ (40405‬ﻭ )ﺟﺪﻩ‬
‫‪ (41024‬ﻭ )ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺭﺓ ‪ (40430‬ﻭ )ﺟﺎﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫)‪ (41140‬ﻭ )ﻭﺍﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ ‪ (41061‬ﻭ )ﺷﺮﻭﺭﻩ‬
‫‪.(41136‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ :1‬ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻲ ‪Hargreaves-‬‬
‫‪) Samani‬ﺃ(‬
‫ﻭ‪) Hargreaves-Samani-Annadale‬ﺏ(‬
‫ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬
‫ﳕﻮﺫﺟ ﻲ‬ ‫‪(Sendanayake et al.,‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺖ ﻭ ﺩ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ‬
‫)‪ 2015‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﳉﺰﺭ ﺍﳌﺪﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪(Chegaar‬‬
‫)‪ et al., 1998‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻄﻮﻉ‬
‫ﰲ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍ ﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﲟ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﺒ ﺤ ﺮ ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﻭ ﴰ ﺎ ﻝ‬
‫ﺇﻓﺮ ﻳﻘ ﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﺻﻞ ‪Hargreaves‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ Samani‬ﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 1982‬ﺇﱃ ﺍﻳﺘﻨﺒﺎﻁ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬
‫ﳊ ﺴ ﺎ ﺏ ﺇﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﻳﻌ ﺘ ﻤ ﺪ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﺑ ﻴ ﺎ ﻧ ﺎ ﺕ ﺩ ﺭ ﺟ ﱵ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﺓ ﺍﻟ ﺪ ﻧ ﻴ ﺎ‬
‫)‪ (Tmin.‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ )‪ (Tmax.‬ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ ﺍﳉﻮﻱ )‪ (Ra‬ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺮﺽ‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﻥ )‪ (φ‬ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ )‪) (Kr‬ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 1‬ﺃ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2002‬ﻃﻮﺭ ‪ Annandale‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬
‫ﻳﺈﺩ ﺧ ﺎﻝ ﻋ ﺎﻣ ﻞ ﺍﺭ ﺗﻔ ﺎﻉ ﻣ ﻮ ﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻜ ﺎﻥ ) ﺍﻟﺸ ﻜ ﻞ ‪ 1‬ﺏ ( ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻗ ﺪ ﺍ ﻋ ﺘ ﻤ ﺪ ﻫ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍ ﻟ ﺒ ﺤ ﺚ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎ ﻳﺮ ﺓ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﻲ‬
‫ﻭ‪Hargreaves-‬‬ ‫‪Hargreaves-Samani‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﻌ ﺮ ﻭ ﻑ‬ ‫‪Samani-Annandale‬‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻄ ﻮ ﺭ ﺑ ﺘ ﻄ ﺒ ﻴ ﻖ ﺳ ﻠﺴ ﻠ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﳌﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻻ ﺕ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻳﺎﺿ ﻴﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺘﺴ ﻠﺴ ﻠ ﺔ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍ ﳌ ﺘ ﺮ ﺍ ﺑ ﻄ ﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻟﻘ ﺪ ﰎ ﺍﺳ ﺘ ﺨ ﺪ ﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎ ﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻴ ﺔ ﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ 1991-1985‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺄﻃﻠﺲ‬
‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻟﻠ ﻤ ﻤ ﻠﻜ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺮ ﺑﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻌ ﻮ ﺩ ﻳ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺬ ﻱ ﺃﳒ ﺰ ﻩ‬
‫ﻣ ﻌ ﻬ ﺪ ﲝ ﻮ ﺙ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﳌ ﺪ ﻳﻨ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻠ ﻚ ﻋ ﺒ ﺪ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺰ ﻳﺰ ﻟﻠﻌ ﻠﻮ ﻡ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ ﻨﻴ ﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌ ﺎﻭ ﻥ ﻣ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺨ ﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﻮ ﻃ ﲏ ﻟﻠﻄ ﺎﻗ ﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠ ﺪ ﺩ ﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﳌﺮ ﻛ ﺰ‬
‫ﲝ ﻮ ﺙ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺘﺠ ﺪ ﺩ ﺓ ﺑﻜ ﻮ ﻟﻮ ﺭ ﺍﺩ ﻭ ) ﺍﻟﻮ ﻻ ﻳﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳌ ﺘﺤ ﺪ ﺓ‬
‫ﺍ ﻷ ﻣ ﺮ ﻳ ﻜ ﻴ ﺔ (‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠ ﻴ ﻪ ﻳ ﺘ ﻨ ﺎ ﻭ ﻝ ﻫ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍ ﻟ ﺒ ﺤ ﺚ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎ ﻳ ﺮ ﺓ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍ ﺕ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪246‬‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﳌ ﻤ ﻠ ﻜ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻌ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟﺴ ﻌ ﻮ ﺩ ﻳ ﺔ ﺑ ﺎ ﻻ ﻋ ﺘ ﻤ ﺎ ﺩ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﺩ ﺭ ﺟ ﱵ‬
‫ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﺓ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺼ ﻮ ﻯ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻧﻴﺎ ﺍﳌ ﺘﺎﺣ ﺔ ﻭ ﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻳ ﺔ ﺩ ﺭ ﺟ ﺔ ﻋ ﺮ ﺽ ﻣ ﻮ ﻗ ﻊ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﺎ ﺭ ﺝ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫* ﻣ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧ ﻴﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩ ﺍﺋﺮ ﰐ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ’‪ 16o52‬ﻭ‪ ’48o29‬ﴰﺎﻻً ﻭﺑﲔ ﺧﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ‬
‫’‪ 36o37‬ﻭ‪ ’39o49‬ﺷﺮﻗﴼ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ 1‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.(2‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻟ ﻘ ﺪ ﰎ ﺍ ﺧ ﺘ ﻴ ﺎ ﺭ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍ ﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﻟﺴ ﺒﺒﲔ ‪- :‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﻛﻮ¦ﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺎﺭﻳﺴﻲ ﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ :δ‬زاوﯾﺔ اﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﺸﻤﺲ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴ ﻌ ﻮ ﺩ ﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﻂ اﻻﺳﺘﻮاء ﺧﻼل اﻟﯿﻮم‪.‬‬
‫‪ :‬زاوﯾﺔ داﺋﺮة ﻋﺮض ﻣﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺳﺠﻼﺕ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎ‪°‬ﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻜﺎن‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Ra‬إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻻﺷﻌﺎع اﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪.1991-1985‬‬ ‫ﺧﺎرج اﻟﻐﻼف اﻟﺠﻮي‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Ws‬زاوﯾﺔ ﻏﺮوب اﻟﺸﻤﺲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Gsc‬اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ اﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : T‬اﻟﻤﺪى اﻟﺤﺮاري‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Kr‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : dr‬ﻣﻌﻜﻮس اﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺸﻤﺲ واﻷرض‪.‬‬
‫‪ : Z‬ارﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ )ﻣﺘﺮ(‪.‬‬

‫ﻭ ‪ °‬ﺪ ﻑ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣ ﻘ ﺎ ﺭ ﻧ ﺔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ‬

‫‪Hargreaves-Samani‬‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺟ ﻲ‬
‫ﻭ‪Hargreaves-Samani-Annandale‬‬
‫ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﺍﻟﺬ ﻱ ﻳ ﺼ ﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﺑﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻋﻦ ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﳏﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺻﺪ ﺍﳉﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺻﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎء ﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﻻ ﺷ ﺘﻘ ﺎﻕ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻟ ﺔ ﺍﻻ ﳓ ﺪ ﺍﺭ‬
‫‪ WMO‬ﻭﺍﳌﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺿﻤﻦ ﳏﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎ ﺳ ﺒ ﺔ ﺑﻜ ﻞ ﳏ ﻄ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻ ﺳ ﺘﻔ ﺎﺩ ﺓ ﻣ ﻨﻬ ﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﻣ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ‪.NCDC‬‬
‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﰲ ﻏ ﻴﺎ ﺏ ﺗﻮ ﻓﺮ ﻗ ﻴﺎﺳ ﺎ ﺕ ﻓﻌ ﻠﻴ ﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ :2‬ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‬
‫ﳍ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍ ﻟ ﻌ ﻨ ﺼ ﺮ ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﺎﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗ ﺴ ﺎ ﻋ ﺪ ﺍ ﳋ ﻄ ﻮ ﺍ ﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨﻬ ﺠ ﻴ ﺔ ﳍ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍﻟﺒ ﺤ ﺚ ﰲ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑﺎﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻷ ﺧ ﺮ ﻯ ﻭ ﺑﻐ ﲑ ﻫ ﺎ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﳌ ﻮ ﺍﻗ ﻊ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪247‬‬
 ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :2‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪) :‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﲑﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺮﺋﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻸﺭﺻﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻭﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﻸﺭﺻﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ(‬ ‫ﻧﻮ ﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺤ ﺺ‬ ‫ﻣﺴ ﺘﻮ ﻯ‬
‫* ﻣ ﻨﻬ ﺠ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺔ‬ ‫ﻛ ﻔ ﺎء ﺓ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪PBIAS‬‬ ‫‪KGE‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺗ ﺘ ﻨ ﺎ ﻭ ﻝ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍ ﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍ ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬
‫ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑ ﻮ ﺍ ﺳ ﻄ ﺔ ‪-:‬‬ ‫‪0.90 < 0.75‬‬
‫‪PB < ±‬‬
‫ﺟﻴﺪ ﺟﺪﺍ ≤ ‪KGE < R2‬‬
‫‪ -١‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ )ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪ -‬ﲰﺎﱐ( ‪(Hargreaves-‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪≤1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫)‪Samani, 1982‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬
‫ﻳﻌ ﺘﻤ ﺪ ﻫ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺗﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ ‪- :‬‬ ‫< ‪± 10‬‬ ‫< ‪0.75‬‬
‫‪< R2‬‬
‫‪PB ≤ ±‬‬ ‫≤ ‪KGE‬‬ ‫ﺟ ﻴﺪ‬
‫‪Rs (MJ/m2/day) = KRs (Tmax- Tmin)0.5‬‬ ‫≤‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬
‫)‪Ra (Hargreaves & Samani, 1982‬‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻓ ﻴ ﻪ ﳝ ﺜ ﻞ ‪ R s‬ﻣ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺇﲨ ﺎﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ‬ ‫‪0.50‬‬
‫< ‪± 15‬‬ ‫< ‪0.50‬‬
‫)‪ (MJ/m2/day‬ﻭ‪ KRs‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫‪< R2‬‬
‫‪PB ≤ ±‬‬ ‫‪KGE‬‬ ‫ﻣ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬
‫≤‬
‫‪ 0.19‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ 0.16‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪≤ 0.75‬‬
‫‪0.65‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺍﺧ ﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪PB‬‬ ‫<‬ ‫≤ ‪KGE R2‬‬
‫ﺿ ﻌ ﻴﻒ‬
‫‪ : Tmax‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ )ﻡ (‪.‬‬
‫‪o‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪≤ 0.50 0.50‬‬
‫‪ : Tmin‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ )ﻡ‪.(o‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :1‬ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺛﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ‬
‫‪ : R a‬ﺍﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﺎ ﺭ ﺝ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺧﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺳﻢ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺔ‬
‫)‪ (MJ/m /day‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫)ﻣﺘﺮ(‬ ‫)ﺷﺮﻗﺎ(‬ ‫)ﴰﺎﻻ(‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪4111‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫‪2093.3‬‬ ‫"‪42o39'39‬‬ ‫"‪18o13'59‬‬ ‫ﺃﺎ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫‪4042‬‬
‫‪143.0‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪49 38'57‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪25 25'39‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺴﺎء‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻭ ﻓ ﻴ ﻬ ﺎ ﳝ ﺜﻞ ‪-:‬‬ ‫‪357.6‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬

‫"‪46 07'49‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪28 19'08‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺼﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫‪4037‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬

‫‪4114‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻩ ‪0.082‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑ ﺖ‬ ‫‪:Gsc‬‬ ‫‪7.2‬‬ ‫"‪42o35'05‬‬ ‫"‪16o53'49‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ‬
‫‪4102‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬
‫‪16.9‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪39 11'12‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪21 42'37‬‬ ‫ﺟﺪﺓ‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪.MJ/m2/min‬‬ ‫‪653.6‬‬ ‫"‪39o41'55‬‬ ‫"‪24o32'53‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺭﺓ‬
‫‪4043‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫‪0‬‬

‫‪ : dr‬ﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺲ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻭﻫﻮ‬ ‫‪668.7‬‬ ‫"‪40o05'55‬‬ ‫"‪29o47'19‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻮﻑ‬
‫‪4036‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪4037‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪768.1‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪36 36'25‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪28 22'35‬‬ ‫ﺗﺒﻮﻙ‬
‫ﻳﺴ ﺎ ﻭ ﻱ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪4106‬‬
‫‪622.0‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫"‪45 13'00‬‬ ‫"‪20o30'00‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪4113‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫‪724.7‬‬ ‫"‪47o06'24‬‬ ‫"‪17o28'04‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫ﻣﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻠﻚ ﺧﺎﻟﺪ‬ ‫‪4043‬‬
‫‪613.6‬‬ ‫"‪46o43'19‬‬ ‫"‪24o55'31‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ(‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻣﲑ ﻧﺎﻳﻒ‬ ‫‪4040‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ‬
‫‪o‬‬ ‫‪o‬‬
‫‪646.7‬‬ ‫"‪43 46'03‬‬ ‫"‪26 18'28‬‬
‫)ﺑﺮﻳﺪﺓ(‬ ‫‪5‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪248‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﳝﺜﻞ ‪ Qio‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﻭ‪ o’Q‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻪ ﳝﺜﻞ ‪ π‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻩ ‪ 3.1416‬ﻭ‪ J‬ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺍﳉﻮﻟﻴﺎﱐ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﻭ‪ Qis‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻭ‪ s’Q‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻴﻮ ﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺑ ﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ :Ws‬ﺯﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﻏﺮﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺲ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -٢‬ﻓﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎءﺓ ‪(Kling-Gupta KGE‬‬ ‫)‪Ws = Cos-1 (-tanφ tanδ‬‬
‫)‪ efficiency‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪-:‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓ ﻴ ﻬ ﺎ ﳝ ﺜ ﻞ ‪ φ‬ﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻳﺔ ﻋ ﺮ ﺽ ﻣ ﻮ ﻗ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﻥ ﻭ ‪ δ‬ﺯ ﺍﻭ ﻳﺔ ﺍﳓ ﺮ ﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺲ ﻋ ﻦ ﺧ ﻂ ﺍﻻ ﺳ ﺘﻮ ﺍء ﺧ ﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻡ ﻭ ﻫ ﻲ ﺗﺴ ﺎ ﻭ ﻱ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻓ ﻴ ﻬ ﺎ ﳝ ﺜ ﻞ ‪ R‬ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﻣ ﻞ ﺍﻻ ﺭ ﺗﺒﺎ ﻁ ﻭ ‪ α‬ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﺴ ﺒ ﺔ ﺑ ﲔ ﺍ ﻻ ﳓ ﺮ ﺍ ﻑ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ )‪ (σo‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ )‪-:(σs‬‬
‫ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ (‬ ‫ﲰ ﺎﱐ ‪-‬‬ ‫) ﻫﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔﺰ ‪-‬‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫‪-٢‬‬
‫)‪(Annandale et al., 2002‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ β‬ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ )‪ (Qo‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻡ ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ ﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2002‬ﺑﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ )‪-:(Qs‬‬ ‫ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﺑ ﺈ ﺩ ﺧ ﺎ ﻝ ﻋ ﺎ ﻣ ﻞ ﺍ ﺭ ﺗ ﻔ ﺎ ﻉ ﻣ ﻮ ﻗ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎ ﱐ ﺣ ﺴ ﺎ ﺏ ﺇ ﲨ ﺎ ﱄ‬
‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑﺘﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌ ﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻟ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪10-×Rs (MJ/m2/day) = KRs (1 + 2.7‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻓﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻱ ‪(Percent PBIAS‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪Z)(Tmax-Tmin)0.5 Ra‬‬
‫)‪ Bias‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪-:‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻓ ﻴ ﻪ ‪ Z‬ﺍﺭ ﺗﻔ ﺎﻉ ﻣ ﻮ ﻗ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﻥ ) ﻣ ﺘﺮ ( ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻳﻌ ﺘﻤ ﺪ ﺗﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﻫ ﺬ ﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺰ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻧﺼ ﻒ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﳝﺜﻞ ‪ Qio‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﻭ‪ Qis‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺮﻳﺔ )‪.(Radians‬‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺑ ﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻟﻘ ﺪ ﲤ ﺖ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﻳﺮ ﺓ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎءﺓ ﺃﺩ ﺍء ﻫ ﺬ ﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﻘ ﺎﺭ ﻥ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺤ ﺺ ﺑﺎﻟﻘ ﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻌ ﻴﺎﺭ ﻳﺔ ﳌﺴ ﺘﻮ ﻯ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍ ﻟ ﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑ ﻮ ﺍ ﺳ ﻄ ﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺩﺍء ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻠﺨﺼﻬﺎ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪(Abou 2‬‬ ‫ﺛﻼ ﺛﺔ ﻓﺤ ﻮ ﺹ ﻫ ﻲ ‪- :‬‬
‫)‪.Rafee et al., 2019:9‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﻓﺤﺺ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑ )ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ( ‪R2‬‬
‫* ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎﺑﻘ ﺔ‬ ‫‪ Coefficient of determination‬ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺰ ﺍﻳﺪ ﻣ ﻨﺬ ﲦ ﺎﻧﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺮ ﻥ ﺍﳌ ﺎﺿ ﻲ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻟ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ ‪- :‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌ ﻠ ﻤ ﻴ ﺔ ) ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳉ ﻐ ﺮ ﺍﻓ ﻴ ﺔ ( ﺍﳌ ﻮ ﺟ ﻬ ﺔ ﻟﻠﺒ ﺤ ﺚ ﻋ ﻦ ﻃ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ‬

‫ﺑﺪ ﻳﻠﺔ ﻧﻈ ﻴﻔ ﺔ ﻭ ﻣ ﺘﺠ ﺪ ﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄ ﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ ﻠﻴﺪ ﻳﺔ ﺍﻷ ﺣ ﻔ ﻮ ﺭ ﻳﺔ‬
‫) ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻝ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺎ ﺯ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺤ ﻢ ( ﺍﳌ ﺆ ﺛﺮ ﺓ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍ ﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ﲟ ﺎ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪249‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺔ ﻛﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ )‪(Haigh. 2011‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺗ ﺄ ﺛ ﲑ ﺍﻻ ﻧﺒﻌ ﺎ ﺙ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻟ ﻠ ﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻹ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻷ ﺭ ﺽ‬ ‫ﻣ ﻨﺎﺥ‬ ‫ﻋ ﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴ ﻄ ﺤ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫)‪ (Abdussamatov et al., 2010‬ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀ ﺎﺭ ﻳﺲ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺗﻮ ﺯ ﻳ ﻊ ﺍﻹ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺨ ﺮ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻷﺣﻮﺍﺽ ﺍﳌﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪(Aguilar et‬‬
‫)‪.al., 2010‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺮ ﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﻫ ﺘﻤ ﺖ ﺑ ﺎ ﻹ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ )‪ (Al Dobhani, 2014‬ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺄ ﺛﲑ ﺍﻻ ﺭ ﺗﻔ ﺎﻉ ﻭ ﺯ ﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻳ ﺔ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑﺎﳌ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭ)ﺍﻟﻌﻴﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺪﺳﻲ‪ (2016 ،‬ﻋﻦ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻭ)ﻋﺘﺎﺏ‪ (1991،‬ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺣ ﺴ ﺎ ﺏ ﻭ ﲢ ﻠ ﻴﻞ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﻟﻜ ﻠ ﻲ ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎ ﻗ ﻂ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻄﺢ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻭ)ﳎﻴﺪ‪ (2008 ،‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﺪ ﺍﺧ ﻠ ﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻴﻮ ﻡ ﻭ ) ﺍﳊ ﻴﺎﺳ ﻲ ‪،‬‬
‫‪ (2012‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﻭﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺡ ﻭﺩﻭﺭﳘﺎ‬
‫ﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭ)‪ (Elissa et al., 2012‬ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪ Heliosat-2‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺮﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﻭ ‪et al.,‬‬
‫)‪ (Alnaser 2004‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﻃﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟ ﺮ ﻏ ﻢ ﻣ ﻦ ﺃ ﳘ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺃ ﻧﻪ ﱂ‬
‫ﳛ ﻆ ﺑ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺎ ﺕ ﻛ ﺜ ﲑ ﺓ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﻣ ﺴ ﺘ ﻮ ﻯ ﺍﳌ ﻤ ﻠ ﻜ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻌ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ )‪(Stewart et al., 1993‬‬
‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﻭ )‪ (Zell, 2015‬ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻔ ﺮ ﺯ ﻩ ﻣ ﻦ ﻏ ﺎﺯ ﺍﺕ ﺃﺩ ﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺯ ﻳﺎﺩ ﺓ ﻇ ﺎﻫ ﺮ ﺓ ﺍﻻ ﺣ ﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻭ ﺯ ﻳﺎﺩ ﺓ ﺗﺂ ﻛ ﻞ ﻃ ﺒﻘ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻷ ﻭ ﺯ ﻭ ﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓ ﻬ ﻨ ﺎ ﻙ ﺍ ﻟ ﻜ ﺜ ﲑ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍ ﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍ ﻟ ﱵ ﺭ ﻛ ﺰ ﺕ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﺍﺳ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻛ ﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺑﺪ ﻳﻠ ﺔ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟ ﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ﺍ ﻟ ﱵ ﲢ ﺘ ﺎ ﺝ ﺇ ﱃ‬
‫ﻣ ﺼ ﺎﺩ ﺭ ﻃ ﺎﻗﻮ ﻳﺔ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺗﻜ ﻠﻔ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜﻴﻼ ‪ °‬ﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴ ﺘﻮ ﺭ ﺩ ﻫ ﺎ ﻣ ﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ﺍﳌ ﺼ ﺪ ﺭ ﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔ ﻂ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓ ﻬ ﻨ ﺎ ﻙ ﺍ ﻟ ﻜ ﺜ ﲑ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍ ﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍ ﻟ ﱵ ﺭ ﻛ ﺰ ﺕ ﻋ ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻ ﺳ ﺘﻔ ﺎﺩ ﺓ ﺍﺳ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﺍﻡ ﺍﳋ ﻮ ﺍﺭ ﺯ ﻣ ﻴﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳉ ﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻧ ﺘ ﺎ ﺝ ﻭ ﺗ ﻮ ﻟ ﻴ ﺪ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟ ﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻜ ﻬ ﺮ ﺑ ﺎ ﺋ ﻴ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺍﺻ ﻞ ﺇﱃ‬
‫ﺳ ﻄ ﺢ ﺍﻷ ﺭ ﺽ ﺑﻮ ﺍﺳ ﻄ ﺔ ﺍﳋ ﻼ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻴ ﺔ ﰲ ﺍ ﻟ ﻌ ﺪ ﻳ ﺪ ﻣ ﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﻛﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ‪(Ajervase et al.,‬‬
‫)‪ 2001‬ﻭ ‪(Koshy & Rini Jones ,‬‬
‫‪(Ranjhitha & Valan‬‬ ‫)‪ 2015‬ﻭ‬
‫)‪ Rajkumar, 2016‬ﻭ ‪(Hadji et al.,‬‬
‫)‪ 2015‬ﻭﰲ ﺣﲔ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺍﻫ ﺘﻤ ﺖ ﺑﺘﺤ ﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌ ﻮ ﺍﻣ ﻞ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻳﺔ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎ ﱐ ﻟ ﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺳ ﻄ ﺢ ﺍﻷ ﺭ ﺽ ﻛ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺎ ﺕ‬
‫)‪ (Chou et al., 2006‬ﻋﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﺒﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋ ﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ‬
‫)‪ (Hatzianastassiou et al., 2007‬ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺍﻋ ﺘﻤ ﺪ ﺕ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷ ﻗ ﻤ ﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼ ﻨﺎﻋ ﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺭ ﺻ ﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻ ﺣ ﺘﺒﺎﺱ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻭ ﺗﺄ ﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻳﺎ ﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ‪(Lin et al.,‬‬
‫)‪ 2015‬ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬
‫)‪ .(Huo and Lu. 2013‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﻫ ﺘ ﻤ ﺖ ﺑﺘﺄ ﺛﲑ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻋ ﻠﻰ‬
‫‪250‬‬
‫)‪ .(Tmin‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺃﻳﻀﴼ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﻭ ‪(Al Abbadi et al.,‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻐﻼﻑ ﺍﳉﻮﻱ )‪ (Ra‬ﺑﺰﺍﻭﻳﱵ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫)‪ 2002‬ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲨﻊ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺭﺻﺪ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻏ ﺮ ﻭ ﺏ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺲ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﻭ )‪(Al Sebaii, 2010‬ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﻭ ﻟﺘﺤ ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﱐ ﻟﺘﻮ ﺯ ﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺇﲨ ﺎﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﳌ ﺒﺎﺷ ﺮ ﻭ ﺍﳌ ﺒﻌ ﺜﺮ ﻋ ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﰎ ﺗ ﻄ ﺒ ﻴ ﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻄﻮﺡ ﺍﻷﻓﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﲜﺪﻩ ﻭ ‪(Hepbasli & Al‬‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺐ ‪ Ratios‬ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪ Suhaibani, 2011‬ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻫﻦ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ ﳌ ﻘ ﺎ ﺭ ﻧ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎ ﱐ ﻟﺘﻮ ﺯ ﻳ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﻯ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻭ ‪(Meyers,‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻟ ﺘ ﻮ ﺯ ﻳ ﻊ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍ ﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﺎ ﺭ ﺝ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍ ﳉ ﻮ ﻱ‬ ‫)‪ et al., 2012‬ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭ ﻟﺘﻮ ﺯ ﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻠﺨ ﺺ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪.2000-1998‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤ ﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻘ ﺎﺭ ﻧﺔ ﻓﻴﻤ ﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪- :‬‬ ‫* ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﺘ ﺎ ﺋ ﺞ ﻭ ﺍ ﳌ ﻨﺎ ﻗ ﺸ ﺔ‬
‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﻣ ﻘ ﺎ ﺭ ﻧ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﺘ ﺒ ﺎ ﻳ ﻦ ﺍ ﳌ ﻜ ﺎ ﱐ ﻟ ﺘ ﻮ ﺯ ﻳ ﻊ ﺍ ﳌ ﺪ ﻯ ﺍ ﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻠﺨ ﺺ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ ﻓﻴﻤ ﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪- :‬‬
‫ﻳﻠﺨ ﺺ ﺍﳉ ﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ‪ 2‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﻃ ﺮ ﻳﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﺐ‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴ ﺘ ﺨ ﺪ ﻣ ﺔ ﰲ ﻋ ﻤ ﻠﻴ ﺔ ﻣ ﻘ ﺎ ﺭ ﻧ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻠ ﻤ ﺪ ﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺑ ﲔ ﺍ ﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠ ﻴ ﻪ ﻳ ﺘ ﺒ ﲔ ﺃ ﻥ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﺮ ﺗﺒﻂ ﺗ ﺒ ﺎ ﻳ ﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﺯ ﻳﻊ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﱐ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺰ ﻣ ﲏ ﻟ ﻠ ﻤ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤ ﺪ ﻯ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﳌ ﺨ ﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ ﻳﻘ ﻞ ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻹ ﲨ ﺎﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﺑﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪ %11‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺘﲔ‬ ‫ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳ ﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﺍﳌ ﻄ ﺒ ﻘ ﲔ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍ ﻟ ﺪ ﺭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺔ ﺑ ﻌ ﺪ ﺓ ﻋ ﻮ ﺍﻣ ﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﻭ‪ %20‬ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪1‬ﺃ ﻭ‪1‬ﺏ(‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﺒﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﱵ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺟﲔ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻣ ﻦ ﺟ ﻬ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌ ﺮ ﺗﻔ ﻌ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﺑﻴ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﺟ ﻬ ﺔ ﺛﺎ ﻧﻴ ﺔ ‪ .‬ﻛ ﻤ ﺎ ﻳ ﻔ ﻮ ﻕ‬ ‫ﺯﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺲ ﻋﻦ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻮﺍء ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ )‪(δ‬‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻠ ﻤ ﺪ ﻯ ﺍ ﳊ ﺮ ﺍ ﺭ ﻱ ﳌ ﺨ ﺘ ﻠﻒ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ ﻣ ﺜﻴ ﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻌﻜﻮﺱ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺲ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺽ )‪ (dr‬ﳘﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪ %32‬ﻭ‪%59‬‬ ‫ﻋ ﺎ ﻣ ﻼ ﻥ ﻣ ﺸ ﺘ ﺮ ﻛ ﺎ ﻥ ﲜ ﻤ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﻷ ¦ ﻤ ﺎ ﻳ ﺮ ﺗ ﺒ ﻄ ﺎ ﻥ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟ ﺮ ﻗ ﻢ‬
‫ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﺮ ﺗ ﻔ ﻌ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﳉ ﻨ ﻮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﺍ ﻟ ﺘ ﻮ ﺍ ﱄ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻟﻴﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﻴﻮ ﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﺯ ﻳﻊ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﱐ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺴ ﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨﻮ ﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻛ ﱪ ﻣ ﺪ ﻯ ﺣ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍ ﻟ ﺰ ﻣ ﲏ ﻟ ﻠ ﻤ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻹ ﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ﺑﺄ ﻗﻞ ﻣ ﺪ ﻯ ﺣ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺧ ﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺘﺮ ﺓ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﺑﺎﻟﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ ﺍﳌ ﺬ ﻛ ﻮ ﺭ ﻳﻦ ﻳﺮ ﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺸ ﻜ ﻞ ﺃﺳ ﺎ ﺳ ﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺯﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﻥ )‪ (φ‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺯﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﻏﺮﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺲ )‪ (Ws‬ﻭﺑﺎﳌﺪﻯ‬
‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺟﱵ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ )‪ (Tmax‬ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪251‬‬
‫‪ -٣‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﱐ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﻣ ﻘﺎﺭ ﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎ ﱐ ﻟﻜ ﻤ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺧ ﺎﺭ ﺝ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ‬
‫ﻳ ﺘ ﺴ ﻢ ﺍ ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﻳ ﻠ ﺨ ﺺ ﺍ ﳉ ﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ‪ 3‬ﻛ ﺬ ﻟﻚ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﻃ ﺮ ﻳﻘ ﺔ‬
‫ﺑ ﺘ ﺒ ﺎ ﻳ ﻨ ﺎ ﺕ ﻣ ﻜ ﺎ ﻧ ﻴ ﺔ ﰎ ﲢ ﻠ ﻴ ﻠ ﻬ ﺎ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﺤ ﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪- :‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﺐ ﺍﳌﺴ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﻣ ﺔ ﰲ ﻋ ﻤ ﻠﻴ ﺔ ﻣ ﻘ ﺎﺭ ﻧ ﺔ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺍ ﻟ ﺘ ﺒ ﺎ ﻳ ﻦ ﺍ ﳌ ﻜ ﺎ ﱐ ﻟ ﻠ ﻤ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌﺎﻉ ﺍ ﻟ ﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﺎﺭ ﺝ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎﺕ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠ ﻴ ﻪ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﺑﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ )‪(1982‬‬ ‫ﻳﺘﺒﲔ ﺃﻥ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﺎﺭ ﺝ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ‬
‫ﳝ ﻜ ﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴ ﺘﻨﺞ ﻣ ﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳉ ﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ‪ 4‬ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﳌ ﺨ ﺘ ﻠﻒ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ ﻳﻘ ﻞ ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜﻴ ﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻟﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﰊ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻹ ﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻳ ﺘ ﺮ ﺍ ﻭ ﺡ ﺑ ﲔ‬ ‫ﺑ ﻨ ﺴ ﺐ ﺗ ﺘ ﺮ ﺍ ﻭ ﺡ ﺑ ﲔ ‪ %1‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﺮ ﺗ ﻔ ﻌ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ‪%8‬‬
‫‪ 19.2‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ‪5.6‬‬ ‫ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﺮ ﻗ ﻴ ﺔ‪ .‬ﻛ ﻤ ﺎ ﻳﻔ ﻮ ﻕ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﻯ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﳌ ﺨ ﺘﻠﻒ‬
‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳉﻮﻑ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ‪22.2‬‬ ‫ﺍ ﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﻃ ﻖ ﻣ ﺜ ﻴ ﻠ ﻪ ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﺸ ﻤ ﺎ ﻟ ﻴ ﺔ ﺑ ﻨ ﺴ ﺐ ﺗ ﺘ ﺮ ﺍ ﻭ ﺡ ﺑ ﲔ ‪%4‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ‪4.5‬‬ ‫ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﻃ ﻖ ﺍ ﻟ ﺸ ﺮ ﻗ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍ ﻟ ﻮ ﺳ ﻄ ﻰ ﻭ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ‪ %9‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﺮ ﺗ ﻔ ﻌ ﺎ ﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﲜﺪﻩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻘﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﺑﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌ ﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨﻮ ﺑﻴ ﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠﻴﻪ ﻳﺘﺴ ﻢ ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ‬
‫ﺍ ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺑ ﻨ ﺴ ﺒ ﺔ ‪ %1‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﳉ ﻨ ﻮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜ ﻠ ﻴ ﻪ ﲜ ﺪ ﺓ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻛ ﱪ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﺎﺭ ﺝ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %10‬ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ ﺑﺄ ﻗﻞ ﻛ ﻤ ﻴ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %11‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪%12‬‬ ‫ﺧ ﺎﺭ ﺝ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ﺧ ﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺘﺮ ﺓ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %14‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‬
‫ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜ ﻴ ﻠ ﻪ ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﳉ ﻨ ﻮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍ ﻟ ﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ﻣ ﻦ ﺟ ﻬ ﺔ ﺛﺎ ﻧﻴ ﺔ‬
‫)ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﺤﻖ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.(3‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻳ ﻔ ﻮ ﻕ ﺍ ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﲜ ﻤ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍ ﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﻃ ﻖ ﻧ ﻈ ﲑ ﻩ ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﺸ ﻤ ﺎ ﻟ ﻴ ﺔ ﺑ ﻨ ﺴ ﺒ ﺔ ‪ %1‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ‪ %3‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﺮ ﺗ ﻔ ﻌ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ‪ %5‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﺮ ﻗ ﻴ ﺔ‬
‫ﻭ‪ %9‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭ‪ %15‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﻌ ﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨﻮ ﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ﺃﻛ ﺜﺮ ﻣ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ ﺍﳌ ﻤ ﻠﻜ ﺔ ﻭ ﻓﺮ ﺓ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﺧ ﻼ ﻝ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺘﺮ ﺓ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ ﺣ ﺴ ﺐ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬
‫ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪ -‬ﲰﺎﱐ )‪.(1982‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪252‬‬
‫ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻟ ﺔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺇﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬ ‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍ ﻟ ﺘ ﺒ ﺎ ﻳ ﻦ ﺍ ﳌ ﻜ ﺎ ﱐ ﻟ ﻠ ﻤ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪ -‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ )‪.(2002‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﺑﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ‬
‫)‪(2002‬‬
‫ﳝ ﻜ ﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴ ﺘﻨﺞ ﻣ ﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳉ ﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ‪ 4‬ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻹ ﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻳﺘﺮ ﺍﻭ ﺡ ﺑﲔ‬
‫‪ 17.4‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎ ﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ‪2.0‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎ ﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﲜﺎﺯﺍﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭ‪22.4‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎ ﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ‪ 3.9‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎ‬
‫ﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﻮﺍﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻘﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :4‬ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺏ‬
‫)ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ( ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪1991-1985‬‬ ‫ﻫ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﲜ ﻤ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍ ﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﻃ ﻖ ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜ ﻴ ﻠ ﻪ ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﳉ ﻨ ﻮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑ ﻨ ﺴ ﺐ ﺗ ﺒ ﻠ ﻎ ‪ %6‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﺮ ﺗ ﻔ ﻌ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ‪ %9‬ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭ‪ %11‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ %12‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﺮ ﻗ ﻴ ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺮ ﺗ ﻔ ﻌ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮ ﺭ ﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﺼ ﻮ ﻣ ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷ ﺣ ﺴ ﺎء‬ ‫ﺃ‪ 5‬ﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺔ‬

‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬

‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﻐ ﲑ‬
‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪22.1‬‬

‫‪5.1‬‬
‫‪19.8‬‬

‫‪4.3‬‬
‫‪19.5‬‬

‫‪4.2‬‬
‫‪20.8‬‬

‫‪6.3‬‬
‫‪19.9‬‬

‫‪5.7‬‬
‫‪19.7‬‬

‫‪5.7‬‬
‫‪21.6‬‬

‫‪5.5‬‬
‫‪20.3‬‬

‫‪5.0‬‬
‫‪20.3‬‬

‫‪5.0‬‬
‫‪22.0‬‬

‫‪2.6‬‬
‫‪21.0‬‬

‫‪3.3‬‬
‫‪19.9‬‬

‫‪3.1‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬

‫ﺍﻻ ﳓ ﺮ ﺍﻑ ﺍﳌ ﻌ ﻴﺎﺭ ﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ %13‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜﻴﻠﻪ‬
‫‪28.9‬‬ ‫‪25.2‬‬ ‫‪24.7‬‬ ‫‪29.0‬‬ ‫‪27.2‬‬ ‫‪27.0‬‬ ‫‪29.2‬‬ ‫‪26.4‬‬ ‫‪26.3‬‬ ‫‪25.5‬‬ ‫‪25.1‬‬ ‫‪23.7‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻤ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺼ ﻮ ﻯ‬

‫‪13.9‬‬ ‫‪13.3‬‬ ‫‪13.1‬‬ ‫‪11.0‬‬ ‫‪11.7‬‬ ‫‪11.6‬‬ ‫‪12.8‬‬ ‫‪12.7‬‬ ‫‪12.7‬‬ ‫‪16.8‬‬ ‫‪16.4‬‬ ‫‪15.5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻤ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺎ ﻟﻴ ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻔ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺳ ﻄ ﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ‬

‫ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪) %22‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﺤﻖ‬

‫ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻑ‬ ‫ﺗﺒﻮ ﻙ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﻳﺪ ﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮ ﻳﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺔ‬

‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﻐ ﲑ‬

‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬
‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪21.8‬‬ ‫‪19.6‬‬ ‫‪19.2‬‬ ‫‪22.1‬‬ ‫‪20.4‬‬ ‫‪20.0‬‬ ‫‪21.4‬‬ ‫‪20.4‬‬ ‫‪20.0‬‬ ‫‪21.8‬‬ ‫‪21.4‬‬ ‫‪21.0‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪.(3‬‬
‫‪7.4‬‬ ‫‪5.7‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪6.2‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻ ﳓ ﺮ ﺍﻑ ﺍﳌ ﻌ ﻴﺎﺭ ﻱ‬

‫‪32.0‬‬ ‫‪26.5‬‬ ‫‪26.0‬‬ ‫‪30.4‬‬ ‫‪27.1‬‬ ‫‪26.6‬‬ ‫‪29.1‬‬ ‫‪27.1‬‬ ‫‪26.6‬‬ ‫‪29.2‬‬ ‫‪27.6‬‬ ‫‪27.2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻤ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺼ ﻮ ﻯ‬

‫‪11.2‬‬ ‫‪11.4‬‬ ‫‪11.2‬‬ ‫‪12.5‬‬ ‫‪12.5‬‬ ‫‪12.2‬‬ ‫‪14.0‬‬ ‫‪12.8‬‬ ‫‪12.6‬‬ ‫‪14.8‬‬ ‫‪13.9‬‬ ‫‪13.6‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻤ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺳ ﺮ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨ ﻮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ‬

‫ﺷ ﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺎﺯ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ‬

‫ﺟﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺔ‬
‫ﻭ ﻳ ﻔ ﻮ ﻕ ﺍ ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫‪CS‬‬ ‫‪H-S-‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﻐ ﲑ‬
‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬ ‫‪H-S‬‬

‫ﲜﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪%12‬‬

‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬

‫‪22.6‬‬ ‫‪22.4‬‬ ‫‪22.1‬‬ ‫‪23.9‬‬ ‫‪22.3‬‬ ‫‪21.9‬‬ ‫‪20.9‬‬ ‫‪17.4‬‬ ‫‪20.7‬‬ ‫‪21.2‬‬ ‫‪18.7‬‬ ‫‪22.2‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬

‫‪4.2‬‬ ‫‪3.9‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬ ‫‪2.3‬‬ ‫‪4.9‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻ ﳓ ﺮ ﺍﻑ ﺍﳌ ﻌ ﻴﺎﺭ ﻱ‬

‫ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ %14‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪%16‬‬

‫‪27.9‬‬ ‫‪27.4‬‬ ‫‪26.9‬‬ ‫‪28.9‬‬ ‫‪26.6‬‬ ‫‪26.1‬‬ ‫‪24.8‬‬ ‫‪19.8‬‬ ‫‪23.5‬‬ ‫‪27.7‬‬ ‫‪23.5‬‬ ‫‪27.9‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻤ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺼ ﻮ ﻯ‬

‫‪16.2‬‬ ‫‪16.4‬‬ ‫‪16.2‬‬ ‫‪18.2‬‬ ‫‪17.5‬‬ ‫‪17.1‬‬ ‫‪16.1‬‬ ‫‪14.0‬‬ ‫‪16.6‬‬ ‫‪14.3‬‬ ‫‪12.9‬‬ ‫‪15.3‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻤ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻧﻴﺎ‬

‫‪ : H-S‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﻮ – ﲰﺎﱐ ) ‪ : H-S_A ، (1982‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ – ﲰﺎﱐ – ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ ) ‪ : CSR ، (2002‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -٤‬ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ %17‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ‪%23‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻮ ﺳ ﻄ ﻰ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠ ﻴ ﻪ ﺗ ﺘ ﺴ ﻢ ﺍﳌ ﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨﻮ ﺑﻴ ﺔ ﺑﺄ ﻋ ﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻧﺴ ﺒﻴﴼ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﻲ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪-‬‬ ‫ﻣ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﻳﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﰲ ﺣ ﲔ ﻳﺘﺴ ﻢ ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ‬
‫ﲰﺎﱐ )‪ (1982‬ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰﺎﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ﺑﺄ ﻗﻞ ﻣ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﻳﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻳﻌ ﺰ ﻯ‬
‫)‪ (2002‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪ -‬ﲰﺎﱐ‬
‫ﻣﻊ ﻣﺜﻴﻼ‪°‬ﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪ CSR‬ﲟﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫)‪ (1982‬ﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﰎ ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺟﻪ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪.(5‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪253‬‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﺑﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ – ﺃ ﻧ ﺎ ﻧ ﺪ ﺍ ﻝ ﻋ ﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :5‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ )‪ (%‬ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬

‫ﻧﻈ ﲑ ﻩ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﺑﺎﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ﺑﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪-‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬
‫)ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ(‬
‫ﲰﺎﱐ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪.%18.7‬‬
‫‪HSA/CSR‬‬ ‫‪HS/CSR‬‬ ‫‪HS/HSA‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻛ ﻤ ﺎ ﺃﻇ ﻬ ﺮ ﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪9.3‬‬ ‫‪5.4‬‬ ‫ﺃﺎ‬
‫‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﺃ ﻥ ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻹ ﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍ ﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺴﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻳﻘ ﻞ ﲜ ﻤ ﻴﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎﺕ ﻋ ﻦ ﻧﻈ ﲑ ﻩ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺼﻮﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬
‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ %9.3‬ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪1.9‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪5.7‬‬ ‫‪1.8‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻳﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ‬
‫ﻭ‪ %11.9‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪5.1‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪10.5‬‬ ‫‪11.9‬‬ ‫‪1.7‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ %6.0‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 3.0‬ﻭ‪ %5.7‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳉﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 9.3‬ﻭ‪ %11.9‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ‬ ‫‪10.1‬‬ ‫‪11.9‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬
‫‪7.5‬‬ ‫‪9.3‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬ ‫ﺗﺒﻮﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ 0.8‬ﻭ‪ %4.5‬ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 2.1‬ﻭ‪%8.4‬‬ ‫‪16.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪18.7‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺯﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨﻮ ﺑﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪12.0‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪18.7‬‬ ‫ﺟﺪﺓ‬

‫‪6.8‬‬ ‫‪8.4‬‬ ‫‪1.9‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻭ ﻣ ﻦ ﺟ ﻬ ﺔ ﺃﺧ ﺮ ﻯ ﺃﻇ ﻬ ﺮ ﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪2.1‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ‬

‫‪ : HS‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ )‪Hargreaves-Samani (1982‬‬

‫ﻹ ﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻳﻘ ﻞ ﺃﻳ ﻀ ﴼ ﲜ ﻤ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﻋ ﻦ‬
‫‪ : HSA ،‬ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪Hargreaves-Samani-‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﲑﻩ ﺍﳌﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫)‪ : CSR ، Annandale (2002‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ‬
‫‪ %4.3‬ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ %10.5‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻇ ﻬ ﺮ ﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪-‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪ 4.1‬ﻭ‪ %6.0‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ‬
‫ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻹ ﲨ ﺎ ﱄ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻳﻘ ﻞ‬
‫‪ 1.2‬ﻭ‪ %3.8‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 7.5‬ﻭ‪%10.1‬‬
‫ﻋ ﻦ ﻧﻈ ﲑ ﻩ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ ﺑﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎﱐ ‪-‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 12.0‬ﻭ‪ %16.6‬ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ‬
‫ﺃ ﻧ ﺎ ﻧ ﺪ ﺍ ﻝ ﲜ ﻤ ﻴ ﻊ ﺍ ﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﻋ ﺪ ﺍ ﳏ ﻄ ﱵ ﺟ ﺪ ﺓ ﻭ ﺟ ﺎﺯ ﺍﻥ ﰲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 0.8‬ﻭ‪ %6.8‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴ ﺎﺣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺒﻠ ﻎ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮ ﻭ ﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﺒﻴ ﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :6‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﺤﺺ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺟﲔ ‪ %5.4‬ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ %1.7‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻺﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ %2.0‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪0.2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ‬ ‫‪r‬‬ ‫‪R2‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Sig.‬‬

‫‪0.005‬‬ ‫‪0.832‬‬ ‫‪0.692‬‬ ‫ﺃﺎ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‪ %3.0‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 1.5‬ﻭ‪ %1.9‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‪Hargreaves-‬‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.984‬‬ ‫‪0.969‬‬ ‫‪CSR‬‬
‫)‪(MJ/m2/day‬‬
‫‪Samani‬‬
‫)‪(MJ/m2/day‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﺴﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺼﻮﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍ ﳉ ﻨ ﻮ ﺑ ﻴ ﺔ ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣ ﲔ ﻳ ﻘ ﻞ ﺍﳌ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻼ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.992‬‬ ‫‪0.984‬‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.991‬‬ ‫‪0.983‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪254‬‬
‫ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 0.832‬ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ 0.989‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.991‬‬ ‫‪0.983‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻳﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ 0.991‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ‬

‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.989‬‬ ‫‪0.979‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺭﺓ‬

‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.995‬‬ ‫‪0.990‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ 0.984‬ﻭ‪ 0.992‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪0.994‬‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.994‬‬ ‫‪0.988‬‬ ‫ﺗﺒﻮﻙ‬

‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.944‬‬ ‫‪0.891‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺯﺍﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.971‬‬ ‫‪0.943‬‬ ‫ﺟﺪﺓ‬

‫ﻭ‪ 0.995‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 0.944‬ﻭ‪0.971‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.941‬‬ ‫‪0.886‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻭﺍﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.985‬‬ ‫‪0.971‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 0.941‬ﻭ‪ 0.985‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫‪0.005‬‬ ‫‪0.830‬‬ ‫‪0.689‬‬ ‫ﺃﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ .(6‬ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.986‬‬ ‫‪0.972‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺴﺎء‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.992‬‬ ‫‪0.984‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺼﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺑﲔ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ ‪ HS‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬

‫‪0.000‬‬
‫‪0.991‬‬

‫‪0.991‬‬
‫‪0.982‬‬

‫‪0.983‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬

‫ﺑﺮﻳﺪﺓ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ‬

‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‪Hargreaves-‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬

‫‪ CSR‬ﻳﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ‪ 0.971‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.989‬‬ ‫‪0.979‬‬ ‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫‪Samani-‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺭﺓ‬
‫‪CSR‬‬
‫‪Annandale‬‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.995‬‬ ‫‪0.990‬‬ ‫)‪(MJ/m2/day‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫)‪(MJ/m2/day‬‬

‫ﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ )ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.(4‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬

‫‪0.000‬‬
‫‪0.993‬‬

‫‪0.943‬‬
‫‪0.987‬‬

‫‪0.889‬‬
‫ﺗﺒﻮﻙ‬
‫ﺟﺎﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬
‫ﺟﺪﺓ‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺮ ﻏ ﻢ ﻣ ﻦ ﺇﺩ ﺧ ﺎﻝ ﻋ ﺎﻣ ﻞ ﺍﺭ ﺗﻔ ﺎﻉ ﻣ ﻮ ﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻜ ﺎﻥ‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.972‬‬ ‫‪0.944‬‬
‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.940‬‬ ‫‪0.883‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫ﰲ ﻣﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻟﺔ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺬ ﻱ ﻳﻌ ﺘﱪ‬

‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0.986‬‬ ‫‪0.972‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ‬

‫ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﺍﳌ ﻄ ﻮ ﺭ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﻫ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍﻷ ﺧ ﲑ ﻻ ﲣ ﺘﻠﻒ‬
‫ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﻲ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﻭ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳ ﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ‬
‫ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜﻴﻼ ‪ °‬ﺎ ﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎﱐ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋ ﻠﻴﻪ ﺑﻠﻐ ﺖ‬
‫ﱂ ﺗﺘﻌﺪ ‪ %5.5‬ﲜﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻋﺪﺍ ﳏﻄﱵ ﺟﺪﻩ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪ 0.05‬ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﻭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺯ ﺍﻥ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ‪ ،‬ﻛ ﻤ ﺎ ﱂ ﺗ ﺘ ﻌ ﺪ ﺍ ﻟ ﻔ ﺮ ﻭ ﻕ ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﺴ ﺒ ﻴ ﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ ) ﻣ ﺘﻐ ﲑ‬
‫ﺑ ﲔ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍ ﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳ ﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﻭ ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﺧ ﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪) CSR‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‬
‫‪ %9.5 CSR‬ﲜﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻋﺪﺍ ﳏﻄﱵ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬
‫‪ 0.830‬ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪ 0.989‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨﻮ ﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻑ ‪ .‬ﰲ ﺣ ﲔ ﱂ ﺗﺘﻌ ﺪ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮ ﻭ ﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﺒﻴ ﺔ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﻭ‪ 0.991‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺗﺮﺍﻭﺣﺖ ﺑﲔ ‪0.986‬‬
‫ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃ ﻧ ﺎ ﻧ ﺪ ﺍ ﻝ ﻭ ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎ ﺧ ﻲ‬
‫ﻭ‪ 0.992‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 0.993‬ﻭ‪0.995‬‬
‫‪ %7.5 CSR‬ﲜﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻋﺪﺍ ﳏﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 0.943‬ﻭ‪ 0.972‬ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨﻮ ﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻑ ﻭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺯ ﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺟ ﺪ ﻩ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪ 0.940‬ﻭ‪ 0.986‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺍﻧﻌ ﻜ ﺴ ﺖ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮ ﻭ ﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﺒﻴﺔ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌ ﻼ ﻗﺔ‬
‫)ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ .(6‬ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﺑﲔ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻨﺎﺕ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﺎﺫ ﺝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼ ﺛﺔ ﺧ ﻼ ﻝ ﳐ ﺘﻠﻒ ﺷ ﻬ ﻮ ﺭ‬
‫ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ ‪ HSA‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟ ﺴ ﻨ ﺔ ‪ ،‬ﲝ ﻴ ﺚ ﳒ ﺪ ﺃ ﻥ ﻗ ﻴ ﻢ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﻣ ﻞ ﺍﻻ ﺭ ﺗﺒﺎ ﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪ CSR‬ﻳﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ‪ 0.927‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ‬
‫ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ) ﻣ ﺘ ﻐ ﲑ ﻣ ﺴ ﺘ ﻘ ﻞ ( ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬
‫‪ 0.000‬ﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ )ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪.(5‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪) CSR‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ( ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪0.05‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪255‬‬
 ‫ﻭ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻋ ﺘﻤ ﺎﺩ ﻋ ﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻋ ﻼ ﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻻ ﺭ ﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﰎ‬
‫‪Linear‬‬
‫‪CSR = 1.082 HSA – 1.485‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.082‬‬ ‫‪-1.485‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪Linear‬‬ ‫ﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ‬
‫‪CSR =1.118 HSA – 1.558‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.118‬‬ ‫‪-1.558‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻳﺪﺓ‬

‫‪CSR = 1.179 HSA – 1.238‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.179‬‬ ‫‪-1.238‬‬

‫‪Linear‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺷ ﺘﻘ ﺎﻕ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎﺩ ﻟ ﺔ ﺍﻻ ﳓ ﺪ ﺍﺭ ﻟﺘﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫‪CSR = 1.287HSA – 3.413‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.287‬‬ ‫‪-3.413‬‬

‫‪Linear‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﻮﻑ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑﻮ ﺍﺳ ﻄ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎﺧ ﻲ ﺑﺪ ﻻ ﻟ ﺔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ‬
‫ﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺑ ﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﻲ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻓ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﻣ ﻦ‬

‫‪CSR = 0.834 HSA1.085‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.085‬‬ ‫‪0.834‬‬ ‫‪Power‬‬ ‫ﺗﺒﻮﻙ‬

‫‪Exponent‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫‪CSR = 6.471 e1.009 HSA‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪0.067‬‬ ‫‪6.471‬‬
‫‪ial‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ‬

‫‪CSR =0.824 HSA1.108‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.108‬‬ ‫‪0.824‬‬ ‫‪Power‬‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬
‫ﺟﻬﺔ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ (7‬ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺔ )ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪.(8‬‬
‫‪-‬‬
‫])‪CSR = e [4.142- (21.43/HSA‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪4.142‬‬ ‫‪S-curve‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫‪21.430‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺍﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫‪-‬‬
‫])‪CSR = e [4.135- (21.541/HSA‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪4.135‬‬ ‫‪S-curve‬‬
‫‪22.541‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ‬

‫‪ -٥‬ﻓﺤﺺ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﺃﺩﺍء ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ‬

‫ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌﺎﻉ ﺍ ﻟ ﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤ ﻔ ﺎﺿ ﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﻲ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪-‬‬
‫ﲰﺎﱐ )‪ (HS‬ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ )‪(HSA‬‬
‫ﻟ ﻠ ﻤ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﻼ ﻝ ﻛ ﻞ ﺷ ﻬ ﺮ ﰎ‬
‫ﻓ ﺤ ﺺ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎ ء ﺓ ﺍ ﻷ ﺩ ﺍء ﻟﻜ ﻞ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﺑﻮ ﺍﺳ ﻄ ﺔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ )‪ (CSR‬ﻭﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻓﺤﻮﺹ‬
‫ﺍ ﺣ ﺼ ﺎ ﺋ ﻴ ﺔ ﻫ ﻲ ﻓ ﺤ ﺺ ﻣ ﻌ ﺎ ﻣ ﻞ ﺍﻟ ﺘ ﻔ ﺴ ﲑ ) ﺍﻟ ﺘ ﺤ ﺪ ﻳ ﺪ ( ‪R 2‬‬
‫‪ Coefficient of determination‬ﻭﻓﺤﺺ‬
‫‪(Kling-Gupta‬‬ ‫‪KGE‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜ ﻔ ﺎء ﺓ‬
‫)‪ efficiency‬ﻭﻓﺤﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻱ ‪PBIAS‬‬
‫)‪ .(Percent Bias‬ﻭﻳﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ 9‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫﺬﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔ ﺤ ﻮ ﺹ ﲜ ﻤ ﻴﻊ ﺍﳌ ﻨﺎﻃ ﻖ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﺭ ﻭ ﺳ ﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :9‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﺤﺺ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﺃﺩﺍء ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻲ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬‬
‫ﲰﺎﱐ )‪ (HS‬ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ )‪(HSA‬‬
‫ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ )‪(CSR‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ :8‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ‬
‫‪HSA-CSR‬‬ ‫‪HS-CSR‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ ‪ HSA‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪CSR‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻭﻧﺔ‬
‫‪KGE‬‬ ‫‪PBIAS‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻭﻧﺔ‬
‫‪KGE‬‬ ‫‪PBIAS‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬

‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪0.51‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪0.63‬‬ ‫‪9.3‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫ﺍﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺔ‬
‫‪b2‬‬ ‫‪b1‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪5.7‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪6.1‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺴﺎء‬
‫‪CSR = (2.977HSA) + (-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫ﺃﺎ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪2.977‬‬ ‫‪Cubic‬‬
‫‪0.002HSA3) - 22.405‬‬ ‫‪0.002‬‬ ‫‪22.405‬‬
‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺼﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪0.86‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬ ‫‪CSR = 1.032 HSA1.009‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.009‬‬ ‫‪1.032‬‬ ‫‪Power‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺴﺎء‬
‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻳﺪﺓ‬
‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ‬
‫‪CSR = 1.090 HSA – 0.891‬‬ ‫‪---‬‬ ‫‪1.090‬‬ ‫‪-0.891‬‬ ‫‪Linear‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺼﻮﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪256‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺟ ﺪ ﺓ ) ﺍ ﻟﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ( ﻭ ﺷ ﺮ ﻭ ﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﻭ ﺍ ﺩ ﻱ ﺍ ﻟ ﺪ ﻭ ﺍ ﺳ ﺮ‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪10.5‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪12.0‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.62‬‬ ‫‪10.0‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪11.7‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻮﻑ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫) ﺍﳌ ﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨ ﻮ ﺑﻴ ﺔ ( ‪.‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬

‫‪2.3‬‬
‫‪0.67‬‬

‫‪0.53‬‬
‫‪7.4‬‬

‫‪15.6‬‬
‫‪0.98‬‬

‫‪0.69‬‬
‫‪3.3‬‬

‫‪2.3‬‬
‫‪0.66‬‬

‫‪0.66‬‬
‫‪9.3‬‬

‫‪0.8‬‬
‫‪0.98‬‬

‫‪0.48‬‬
‫ﺗﺒﻮﻙ‬

‫ﺟﺎﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ‬

‫* ﺍﳋ ﻼ ﺻ ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻮ ﺻ ﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪0.61‬‬ ‫‪11.5‬‬ ‫‪0.92‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻩ‬

‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪7.2‬‬ ‫‪0.87‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪0.67‬‬ ‫‪8.4‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺃﻇ ﻬ ﺮ ﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ ﺇﻣ ﻜ ﺎﻧﻴ ﺔ ﺍﺳ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﺍﻡ‬

‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪2.3‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﺳﺮ‬

‫ﻭ ﻣ ﻦ ﺧ ﻼ ﻝ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳉ ﺪ ﻭ ﻝ ‪ 9‬ﻳﺘﻀ ﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻫ ﻨ ﺎ ﻙ‬
‫ﺩ ﺭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﺓ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺼ ﻮ ﻯ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻧﻴﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺻ ﻌ ﻮ ﺑ ﺔ ﻧﺴ ﺒ ﻴ ﺔ ﰲ ﲢ ﺪ ﻳ ﺪ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎ ء ﺓ ﻛ ﻞ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﺣ ﺴ ﺐ ﻧ ﺘ ﻴ ﺠ ﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﺑﺘﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﻭ ﻫ ﻮ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟ ﻔ ﺤ ﻮ ﺹ ﺍ ﻟ ﺜ ﻼ ﺛ ﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻟ ﺬ ﺍ ﰎ ﺗ ﻄ ﺒ ﻴ ﻖ ﻃ ﺮ ﻳ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻘ ﻴ ﻤ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻮ ﺯ ﻭ ﻧ ﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻛ ﺜﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﺎﺫ ﺝ ﺍﺳ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﺍﻣ ﴼ ﲢ ﺖ ﺇﺷ ﺮ ﺍﻑ ﻣ ﻨﻈ ﻤ ﺔ ﺍﻷ ﻏ ﺬ ﻳ ﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻔ ﺤ ﻮ ﺹ ﺍﻟﺜﻼ ﺛﺔ ﺑﺈﻋ ﻄ ﺎء ﺍﻟﻮ ﺯ ﻥ ‪ 4‬ﳌﺴ ﺘﻮ ﻯ ﺍﻷ ﺩ ﺍء ) ﺟ ﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻸﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ‪ ONU-FAO‬ﺑﺎﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬
‫ﺟ ﺪ ﺍ( ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺯ ﻥ ‪ 3‬ﳌﺴ ﺘﻮ ﻯ ﺍﻷ ﺩ ﺍء ) ﺟ ﻴﺪ ( ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺯ ﻥ ‪ 2‬ﳌﺴ ﺘﻮ ﻯ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟ ﱵ ﻻ ﲢ ﺘ ﻮ ﻱ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﳏ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﻟﻘ ﻴ ﺎﺱ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻷ ﺩ ﺍء ) ﻣ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ( ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺯ ﻥ ‪ 1‬ﳌ ﺴ ﺘ ﻮ ﻯ ﺍ ﻷ ﺩ ﺍ ء ) ﺿ ﻌ ﻴ ﻒ ( ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤ ﺜﻞ ﺃﳘ ﻴﺔ ﻫ ﺬ ﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﰲ ﺑﺴ ﺎﻃ ﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺩ ﻗﺔ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎء ﺗﻪ ﰲ‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﻈ ﻬ ﺮ ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻢ ﺍﳌ ﻮ ﺯ ﻭ ﻧﺔ ﳌﺴ ﺘﻮ ﻳﺎﺕ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎءﺓ ﺍﻷ ﺩ ﺍء ﻟﻠﻔ ﺤ ﻮ ﺹ‬
‫ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻣ ﻘ ﺎﺭ ﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘ ﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔ ﻌ ﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﺃﺩﺍء ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻲ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ )‪(1982‬‬
‫ﻳ ﺘ ﻢ ﺍ ﳊ ﺼ ﻮ ﻝ ﻋ ﻠ ﻴ ﻬ ﺎ ﺑ ﻮ ﺍ ﺳ ﻄ ﺔ ﺃ ﺟ ﻬ ﺰ ﺓ ﺩ ﻗ ﻴ ﻘ ﺔ ﻻ ﺗ ﺘ ﻮ ﻓ ﺮ ﺑﺴ ﻬ ﻮ ﻟ ﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ )‪ (2002‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﰲ ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﺎ ﺧ ﻴ ﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻣ ﺘﻤ ﺎﺛﻠ ﺔ ﲟ ﺠ ﻤ ﻮ ﻉ ﲦ ﺎﱐ ﳏ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻛ ﺸ ﻔ ﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ ﻋ ﻦ ﻭ ﺟ ﻮ ﺩ‬
‫ﰲ ﺣ ﲔ ﲢ ﺴ ﻦ ﺃ ﺩ ﺍء ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳ ﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ﺑ ﺄ ﺭ ﺑ ﻊ ﳏ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ‬
‫ﺗ ﺒ ﺎ ﻳ ﻨ ﺎ ﺕ ﻣ ﻜ ﺎ ﻧ ﻴ ﺔ ﻟ ﺘ ﻮ ﺯ ﻳ ﻊ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻐ ﲑ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻷ ﺳ ﺎ ﺳ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬
‫ﻫ ﻲ ﺍ ﳉ ﻮ ﻑ ﺑ ﺎ ﳌ ﻨ ﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺎ ﻟ ﻴ ﺔ ﻭ ﺟ ﺪ ﻩ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﰊ‬
‫ﺗ ﺆ ﺛ ﺮ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﺯ ﻳﻊ ﺍﳌ ﻜ ﺎﱐ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻭ ﻫ ﻲ‬
‫ﻭ ﺷ ﺮ ﻭ ﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﻭ ﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺳ ﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﳉ ﻨﻮ ﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻌ ﺪ ﺇﺩ ﺧ ﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺩ ﺭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﺓ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺼ ﻮ ﻯ ﻭ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﻯ ﺍﳊ ﺮ ﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻭ ﺇﲨ ﺎﱄ‬
‫ﺗﺄ ﺛﲑ ﻋ ﺎ ﻣ ﻞ ﺍ ﻻ ﺭ ﺗ ﻔ ﺎ ﻉ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺧ ﺎﺭ ﺝ ﺍﻟﻐ ﻼ ﻑ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻱ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻋ ﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻹ ﻣ ﻜ ﺎﻥ ﺗﻄ ﺒﻴﻖ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ‬
‫ﻛ ﻤ ﺎ ﺃﻇ ﻬ ﺮ ﺕ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻫ ﺬ ﻩ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺭ ﺍﺳ ﺔ ﻭ ﺟ ﻮ ﺩ ﲤ ﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻔ ﺤ ﻮ ﺻ ﲔ ﰲ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﺿ ﺢ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﲟ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎﺕ ﺃ ﺎ ) ﺍﳌﺮ ﺗﻔ ﻌ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﺑﻴﺔ( ﻭ ﺍﻷ ﺣ ﺴ ﺎء ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﺼ ﻮ ﻣ ﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻲ )ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ ‪ (1982،‬ﻭ‬
‫) ﺍﳌ ﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﺮ ﻗ ﻴ ﺔ ( ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻳﺎ ﺽ ﻭ ﺑﺮ ﻳ ﺪ ﺓ ) ﺍﳌ ﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺳ ﻄ ﻰ (‬
‫)ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬ﲰﺎﱐ‪-‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪﺍﻝ‪ (2002 ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻮ ﺭ ﺓ ) ﺍﳌﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﺑﻴﺔ( ﻭ ﺗﺒﻮ ﻙ ) ﺍﳌﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ (‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪ CSR‬ﰲ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ‪ 12‬ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﰎ‬
‫ﻭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺯ ﺍﻥ ) ﺍ ﻟﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ( ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣ ﲔ ﻳ ﻔ ﻀ ﻞ ﺗ ﻄ ﺒ ﻴ ﻖ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬
‫ﺍﺳ ﺘﺨ ﺪ ﺍﻣ ﻬ ﺎ ﰲ ﺇﻃ ﺎﺭ ﻣ ﺸ ﺮ ﻭ ﻉ ﺃﻃ ﻠﺲ ﺍﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳ ﻔ ﺰ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃ ﻧ ﺎ ﻧ ﺪ ﺍ ﻝ ﰲ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍ ﳌ ﺘ ﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻮ ﻣ ﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤ ﻤ ﻠﻜ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺮ ﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻌ ﻮ ﺩ ﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺬ ﻱ ﰎ ﺍﳒ ﺎﺯ ﻩ ﲟ ﻌ ﻬ ﺪ ﲝ ﻮ ﺙ‬
‫ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﲟ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻑ ) ﺍﳌ ﻨﻄ ﻘ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ (‬
‫ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﲟ ﺪ ﻳﻨ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻠ ﻚ ﻋ ﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌ ﺰ ﻳﺰ ﻟﻠﻌ ﻠﻮ ﻡ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ ﻨﻴ ﺔ ﺳ ﻨ ﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪257‬‬
‫ﲰﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻲ ‪ %9.3 CSR‬ﲜﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋ ﺪ ﺍ ﳏ ﻄ ﱵ ﺍ ﳉ ﻮ ﻑ ﻭ ﺍﳌ ﺪ ﻳ ﻨ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻨ ﻮ ﺭ ﺓ ‪ .‬ﻛ ﻤ ﺎ ﱂ ﺗ ﺘ ﻌ ﺪ ﺍ ﻟ ﻔ ﺮ ﻭ ﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﺒﻴ ﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻓ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ‬
‫‪ %7.5‬ﲜﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ ﻋﺪﺍ ﳏﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﻮﻑ ﻭﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻨﻮ ﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﺟ ﺪ ﻩ ﻭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺯ ﺍﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻧﻈﺮﴽ ﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺟﻲ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬‬
‫ﲰ ﺎﱐ ﻭ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻳﻔﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ ﻓﻘ ﺪ ﺃﻇ ﻬ ﺮ ﺕ ﺍﻟﻘ ﻴﻢ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﻮ ﺯ ﻭ ﻧ ﺔ ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓ ﺤ ﺺ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎء ﺓ ﺃﺩ ﺍء ﺍﻟﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺄ ﺛﲑ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺳﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺩﺍء ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻫﺎﺭﻗﺮﻳﻔﺰ‪-‬‬
‫ﲰ ﺎﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﺎﻧﺪ ﺍﻝ ﲟ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎﺕ ﺍﳉ ﻮ ﻑ ﻭ ﺷ ﺮ ﻭ ﺭ ﺓ ﻭ ﻭ ﺍﺩ ﻱ ﺍﻟﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺳ ﺮ‬
‫ﻭ ﺟ ﺪ ﻩ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣ ﲔ ﲤ ﺎﺛﻠﺖ ﻛ ﻔ ﺎءﺓ ﺃﺩ ﺍء ﺍﻟﻨﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺟ ﲔ ﺑﺒﺎﻗﻲ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﻄ ﺎ ﺕ ‪.‬‬
‫* ﺍﳌﺮ ﺍﺟ ﻊ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻً‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺘﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﻮﻝ ﺭﻣﻀﺎﻥ )‪ :(2010‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍ ﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﺍ ﻟ ﻜ ﻠ ﻲ ﺍ ﻟﺴ ﺎ ﻗ ﻂ ﻋ ﻠ ﻰ‬
‫ﺍ ﻟ ﺴ ﻄ ﺢ ﺍ ﻷ ﻓ ﻘ ﻲ ﳌ ﺪ ﻳ ﻨ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻨ ﺎ ﺻ ﺮ ﻳ ﺔ‪ ،‬ﳎ ﻠ ﺔ ﻋ ﻠﻮ ﻡ‬
‫ﺫ ﻱ ﻗ ﺎ ﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺇ ﺻ ﺪ ﺍ ﺭ ﺍ ﺕ ﺟ ﺎ ﻣ ﻌ ﺔ ﺫ ﻱ ﻗ ﺎ ﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌ ﺠ ﻠ ﺪ‬
‫‪ ،(1)2‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺫﻱ ﻗﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ‪.‬‬
‫ﳎﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﺃﲪﺪ )‪ :(2008‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ‬
‫ﺍ ﻻ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍ ﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ ﻭ ﺍ ﻟ ﻐ ﻴ ﻮ ﻡ ﰲ ﻣ ﺪ ﻳ ﻨ ﺔ ﺍ ﳌ ﻮ ﺻ ﻞ ‪،‬‬
‫ﺭ ﺳ ﺎﻟﺔ ﻣ ﺎﺟ ﺴ ﺘﲑ ﻏ ﲑ ﻣ ﻨﺸ ﻮ ﺭ ﺓ‪ ،‬ﻛ ﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮ ﺑﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺟ ﺎﻣ ﻌ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻮ ﺻ ﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌ ﺮ ﺍﻕ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺒﻞ ﳏﻤﺪ )‪ :(2012‬ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻲ‬
‫ﻭ ﻃ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟﺮ ﻳﺎﺡ ﻭ ﺩ ﻭ ﺭ ﳘ ﺎ ﰲ ﺇ ﻧ ﺘﺎﺝ ﺍ ﻟ ﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻟﻴ ﻤ ﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺭ ﺳ ﺎ ﻟ ﺔ ﻣ ﺎ ﺟ ﺴ ﺘ ﲑ ﻏ ﲑ ﻣ ﻨ ﺸ ﻮ ﺭ ﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻗ ﺴ ﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﺮﺓ ﻛﻔﺎءﺓ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ Hargreaves-Samani‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ ﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻻﺷﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﻤ ﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ‪ CSR‬ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬
‫‪ 1998‬ﲟﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﱪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺠﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫ﳌ ﺮ ﻛ ﺰ ﻣ ﺼ ﺎ ﺩ ﺭ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﺠ ﺪ ﺩ ﺓ ﺑ ﻜ ﻮ ﻟ ﻮ ﺭ ﺍﺩ ﻭ ﰲ ﺍﻟ ﻮ ﻻ ﻳ ﺎ ﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳌ ﺘ ﺤ ﺪ ﺓ ﺍﻷ ﻣ ﺮ ﻳﻜ ﻴ ﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻟﻘ ﺪ ﺑﻠﻎ ﺍﳌﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫‪19.9‬‬ ‫ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳﻔ ﺰ ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ‬ ‫ﺑﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌ ﺤ ﺴ ﻮ ﺏ‬
‫ﻭ‪19.5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﳌﺮ ﺗﻔ ﻌ ﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪19.7‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 23.0‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪20.0‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 21.0‬ﻭﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺑﲔ‬
‫‪ 19.2‬ﻭ‪ 20.0‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ‬
‫‪ 20.7‬ﻭ‪ 22.2‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭﺑﲔ‬
‫‪ 21.9‬ﻭ‪ 22.1‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻻ ﲣ ﺘﻠﻒ ﻛ ﺜﲑ ﴽ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ‬
‫ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳ ﻔ ﺰ‪ -‬ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ‪ -‬ﺃ ﻧ ﺎ ﻧ ﺪ ﺍ ﻝ ﻋ ﻦ ﻣ ﺜ ﻴ ﻼ ‪ °‬ﺎ ﻟ ﻨ ﻤ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭ ﻗ ﺮ ﻳ ﻔ ﺰ ‪-‬‬
‫ﲰ ﺎ ﱐ ‪ ،‬ﲝ ﻴ ﺚ ﺑﻠ ﻎ ﺍﳌ ﺘﻮ ﺳ ﻂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮ ﻣ ﻲ ﻟ ﻺ ﺷ ﻌ ﺎ ﻉ ﺍﻟﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻲ‬
‫‪ 21.0‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎ ﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ‪19.5‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ‪19.9‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 20.3‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪20.4‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 21.4‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﻰ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪19.6‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 20.4‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪17.4‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 18.7‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﰊ ﻭﺑﲔ ‪22.3‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 22.4‬ﻣﻴﻐﺎﺟﻮﻝ‪/‬ﻡ‪/2‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻨﻮﺑﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻋ ﻠ ﻴ ﻪ ﻓ ﺈ ﻥ ﺍ ﻟ ﻔ ﺮ ﻭ ﻕ ﺍ ﻟ ﻨﺴ ﺒ ﻴ ﺔ ﺑ ﲔ ﺗ ﻘ ﺪ ﻳ ﺮ ﺍ ﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺟﲔ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﻳﻦ ﱂ ﺗﺘﻌﺪ ‪ %5.4‬ﲜﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺤﻄﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑ ﺎ ﺳ ﺘ ﺜ ﻨ ﺎ ء ﳏ ﻄ ﱵ ﺟ ﺪ ﻩ ﻭ ﺟ ﺎ ﺯ ﺍ ﻥ ﺑ ﺎ ﻟ ﺴ ﺎ ﺣ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻐ ﺮ ﰊ ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣ ﲔ‬
‫ﱂ ﺗﺘﻌ ﺪ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮ ﻭ ﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﺒﻴ ﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘ ﺪ ﻳﺮ ﺍﺕ ﳕ ﻮ ﺫ ﺝ ﻫ ﺎﺭ ﻗﺮ ﻓﺰ ‪-‬‬
‫‪258‬‬
 Topographic effects on ، ‫ ﺟ ﺎﻣ ﻌ ﺔ ﺫ ﻣ ﺎﺭ‬، ‫ ﻛ ﻠﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻵ ﺩ ﺍﺏ‬،‫ﺍﳉ ﻐ ﺮ ﺍﻓﻴﺎ‬
solar radiation distribution .‫ﺍﳉ ﻤ ﻬ ﻮ ﺭ ﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤ ﻨﻴﺔ‬
in mountainous watersheds
and their influence on ‫ ﻧ ﺒ ﻴ ﻞ ﻋ ﺒ ﺪ ﺍ ﷲ‬، ‫ ﻋ ﺒ ﺪ ﺍ ﳉ ﺒ ﺎ ﺭ ﳏ ﻤ ﺪ ؛ ﺍﻟﻘ ﺪ ﺳ ﻲ‬، ‫ﺍﻟﻌ ﻴﺎﱐ‬
reference ‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬:(2016)
evapotranspiration ، ‫ﻟ ﺘ ﻮ ﻟ ﻴ ﺪ ﺍ ﻟ ﻄ ﺎ ﻗ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﺸ ﻤ ﺴ ﻴ ﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉ ﻤ ﻬ ﻮ ﺭ ﻳ ﺔ ﺍ ﻟ ﻴ ﻤ ﻨ ﻴ ﺔ‬
estimates at watershed
،(5) ‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬،‫ﳎﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻧﺪﻟﺲ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‬
scale, Hydrology and Earth
System Sciences, 14, 2479- ،‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﻧﺪﻟﺲ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ‬،(11) ‫ﺍﳌﺠﻠﺪ‬
2494. .‫ ﺍﳉﻤﻬﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻨﻴﺔ‬،73-59 ‫ﺹ‬
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