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India Daily

March 20, 2024 NIFTY50 [Mar 19]: 21,817

Contents

Daily Alerts
Sector Alerts
Automobiles & Components: Turning tides
 Domestic demand growth has moderated for tire companies
 Uptick in commodity prices poses risk to tire companies’ profitability
 Domestic tire companies have taken prices cuts in TBR segment
Insurance: Moderate month for non-life
 Motor TP continues to drag overall growth
 Health segment and SAHIs drive growth in 11MFY24
 Trends for listed players

Private Circulation Only.


This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
UPDATE

Automobiles & Components


India
Sector View: Cautious NIFTY-50: 21,817 March 20, 2024

Turning tides Company data and valuation summary


Given the recent uptick in natural rubber and crude oil prices, coupled with Ticker CMP (Rs) Rating FV (Rs) Upside (%)
muted demand trends in the domestic market, the margins of tire companies BIL IN 2,285 SELL 1,950 (14.6)
MRF IN 132,680 SELL 90,000 (32.2)
may come under pressure if prices sustain at these levels. At current spot APTY IN 455 SELL 375 (17.6)
prices, our analysis suggests potential gross margin cuts of 100-200 bps to CEAT IN 2,551 SELL 1,670 (34.5)
Relative valuation
our FY2025 estimates. A reverse DCF analysis suggests that tire companies P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X)
should maintain or improve 2QFY24 peak profitability in the longer term to Ticker 2025E 2026E 2025E 2026E
BIL IN 29.9 25.8 17.0 14.8
justify CMP, which we believe is challenging. The uptick in freight cost MRF IN 27.4 26.5 12.3 11.5
remains an incremental headwind for BIL. Retain SELL on APTY, CEAT, MRF APTY IN 16.6 16.0 6.9 6.7
CEAT IN 16.2 18.3 7.2 7.6
and BIL.

Domestic demand growth has moderated for tire companies Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

In the last three quarters, revenue growth for listed tire companies has Prices in this report are based on the market close of
moderated to low mid-single digits on account of: (1) demand moderation in March 19, 2024

select replacement segments, (2) weakness in export markets and (3) decline
in ASPs in the OEM segment due to the passthrough of lower RM prices. We
expect demand trends to remain muted in the near term, given: (1) weak PV

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933
replacement segment demand as the base period of sales are muted, assuming
a 3-5 year replacement cycle, (2) demand moderation in the OEM segment and
(3) subdued trends in the CV segment, which may also impact TBR and TBB
replacement demand, partly offset by the recovery in export markets. Apollo
Tyres has underperformed CEAT and MRF, mainly due to market share loss in
the PCR replacement segment as it continues to focus on profitability.

Uptick in commodity prices poses risk to tire companies’ profitability


International and domestic natural rubber prices (spot) have risen by 22-32%
from 2QFY24 average levels, driven by persistent supply concerns. Leading
natural-rubber producers (Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia) are grappling with
lower output, owing to adverse weather concerns. In the first two months, global
NR supply stood at 2.25 mn tons versus global NR consumption of 2.44 mn
tons. Rubber prices may sustain at current levels, given the widening global
supply deficit and steady demand trends in the global PV segment. Further,
crude prices have witnessed an uptick, which will further weigh on profitability
(500-600 bps impact on gross margins at current spot prices from 3QFY24
levels). If the current prices sustain, we see a downside risk to our gross margin
assumptions to the tune of 100-200 bps. The uptick in freight cost due to the
Red Sea crisis remains an incremental headwind for BKT (~45% volumes are
derived from the EU region).

Domestic tire companies have taken prices cuts in TBR segment


In March, domestic tire companies cut prices in the TBR segment to the tune of
1-1.5%, which implies demand challenges in the CV replacement segment
currently. Tire companies might be able to pass on commodity price increases
in the PCR and 2W replacement segments (B2C segments); however, we believe
it will be challenging in the CV segment, given the B2B nature of the business
and muted demand trends. We believe APTY has limited scope to raise prices
in the PCR segment without impacting its market share,, given its premium
pricing versus other domestic tire companies. Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Rishi Vora Praveen Poreddy


3

To justify CMP, tire companies should maintain or improve on 2QFY24 peak profitability
A reverse DCF analysis suggests that APTY (standalone) and CEAT must maintain their EBITDA per kg
in FY2027-36E compared to 2QFY24 peak profitability levels (~50-55% higher than the 10-year average
EBITDA per kg) to justify the current price. Further, MRF must clock in 33% higher profitability over
FY2027-36E from FY2024E levels to justify the CMP. We expect capex spends to remain at lower levels
over the next 1-2 years; however, we believe that it will be difficult for the company to maintain current
profitability/return ratios on a sustainable basis, given: (1) the commoditized nature of the industry,
which tends to be cyclical, (2) weak pricing power, especially in OEM and CV replacement segments, (3)
elevated competitive intensity in select segments and (4) high capex requirements over the cycle.

Domestic revenue growth has moderated in the last three quarters on account of demand moderation in select replacement segment
and weakness in export markets
Quarterly performance tyre companies, March fiscal year-ends, 1QFY21-3QFY24 (Rs mn, %)
1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24
Tyre companies comparison
Apollo Tyres (Standalone)
Revenue (Rs mn) 17,725 29,102 34,191 36,296 32,200 36,497 37,917 39,880 44,362 42,519 42,466 43,662 44,133 44,067 43,319
yoy change (%) (42.9) 4.9 24.2 49.3 81.7 25.4 10.9 9.9 37.8 16.5 12.0 9.5 (0.5) 3.6 2.0
EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,905 5,483 7,328 5,606 3,336 3,762 3,450 3,761 4,288 4,374 5,483 6,964 7,867 8,414 7,840
EBITDA margin (%) 10.8 18.8 21.4 15.4 10.4 10.3 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.3 12.9 15.9 17.8 19.1 18.1
PAT (Rs mn) (536) 2,196 3,393 2,253 685 900 492 544 1,043 808 1,376 2,560 3,119 3,518 3,061
CEAT
Revenue (Rs mn) 11,202 19,785 22,213 22,897 19,064 24,518 24,133 25,920 28,184 28,945 27,272 28,748 29,352 30,533 29,631
yoy change (%) (36.1) 17.0 26.1 45.5 70.2 23.9 8.6 13.2 47.8 18.1 13.0 10.9 4.1 5.5 8.7
EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,020 2,925 3,277 2,608 1,662 2,203 1,341 1,875 1,653 2,031 2,376 3,678 3,871 4,561 4,175
EBITDA margin (%) 9.1 14.8 14.8 11.4 8.7 9.0 5.6 7.2 5.9 7.0 8.7 12.8 13.2 14.9 14.1
PAT (Rs mn) (348) 1,819 1,321 1,528 240 420 (200) 253 92 78 354 1,337 1,446 2,080 1,815
MRF
Revenue (Rs mn) 24,607 42,444 46,416 48,165 41,840 49,078 49,201 53,048 56,959 58,263 56,445 58,417 64,403 62,177 61,625
yoy change (%) (45.0) 5.9 13.9 30.7 70.0 15.6 6.0 10.1 36.1 18.7 14.7 10.1 13.1 6.7 9.2
EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,322 8,667 9,770 7,664 4,955 5,211 4,930 5,402 4,934 4,806 5,615 8,536 11,299 11,575 10,548
EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 20.4 21.0 15.9 11.8 10.6 10.0 10.2 8.7 8.2 9.9 14.6 17.5 18.6 17.1
PAT (Rs mn) 135 4,109 5,205 3,322 1,656 1,891 1,494 1,652 1,236 1,299 1,748 3,407 5,888 5,867 5,097
JK Tyres
Revenue (Rs mn) 11,308 22,748 27,693 29,273 26,084 29,867 30,760 33,118 36,430 37,565 36,129 36,325 37,181 38,975 36,877
yoy change (%) (56.1) 5.6 30.6 63.3 130.7 31.3 11.1 13.1 39.7 25.8 17.5 9.7 2.1 3.8 2.1
EBITDA (Rs mn) (38) 3,550 5,004 4,547 2,795 2,926 2,735 2,279 2,849 3,004 2,393 3,762 4,571 5,891 5,502
EBITDA margin (%) (0.3) 15.6 18.1 15.5 10.7 9.8 8.9 6.9 7.8 8.0 6.6 10.4 12.3 15.1 14.9
PAT (Rs mn) (2,042) 1,097 2,305 1,950 441 650 539 382 351 496 668 1,116 1,586 2,486 2,271
TVS Srichakra
Revenue (Rs mn) 2,121 5,524 5,727 6,020 4,953 6,913 6,767 6,703 7,374 8,335 7,313 6,829 7,022 7,397 7,189
yoy change (%) (65.0) (0.9) 12.4 39.5 133.5 25.2 18.2 11.3 48.9 20.6 8.1 1.9 (4.8) (11.3) (1.7)
EBITDA (Rs mn) (175) 866 801 931 263 633 404 346 311 827 598 553 606 906 684
EBITDA margin (%) (8.2) 15.7 14.0 15.5 5.3 9.2 6.0 5.2 4.2 9.9 8.2 8.1 8.6 12.3 9.5
PAT (Rs mn) (372) 398 363 350 11 253 90 80 (22) 382 195 223 210 391 240
Goodyear
Revenue (Rs mn) 2,269 4,811 5,143 5,693 5,342 6,983 6,051 5,982 8,190 7,669 6,891 6,526 7,197 6,901 5,914
yoy change (%) (53.7) 6.0 20.7 51.8 135.4 45.1 17.6 5.1 53.3 9.8 13.9 9.1 (12.1) (10.0) (14.2)
EBITDA (Rs mn) 15 734 744 675 448 600 337 335 600 460 439 570 641 613 398
EBITDA margin (%) 0.6 15.3 14.5 11.8 8.4 8.6 5.6 5.6 7.3 6.0 6.4 8.7 8.9 8.9 6.7
PAT (Rs mn) (45) 486 490 432 269 392 195 174 377 271 244 336 393 379 219
Listed companies quarterly performance
Revenue (Rs mn) 69,232 124,415 141,383 148,344 129,482 153,855 154,829 164,652 181,499 183,296 176,516 180,507 189,287 190,050 184,555
yoy change (%) (46.7) 6.9 21.4 44.2 87.0 23.7 9.5 11.0 40.2 19.1 14.0 9.6 4.3 3.7 4.6
EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,050 22,226 26,923 22,031 13,458 15,335 13,196 13,999 14,635 15,502 16,905 24,063 28,855 31,961 29,147
EBITDA margin (%) 8.7 17.9 19.0 14.9 10.4 10.0 8.5 8.5 8.1 8.5 9.6 13.3 15.2 16.8 15.8
PAT (Rs mn) (3,208) 10,105 13,076 9,834 3,301 4,504 2,609 3,084 3,078 3,334 4,585 8,979 12,641 14,720 12,703

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components


India Research
4

International rubber prices have risen sharply in past 1 month Domestic natural rubber prices rose sharply in past 1 month
Tokyo Commodity Exchange Rubber Futures, 2021- Kottayam Natural Rubber RSS4 prices, 2021-24 (Rs
24 (Rs per kg) per kg)

Tokyo commodity exchange rubber future contract (Rs/kg) Kottayam natural rubber RSS4 prices (Rs/kg)
290 220
200
240
180

190 160
140
140 120
100
90
80

40 60

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
May-21

May-22

May-23
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
May-21

May-22

May-23
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24

Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities

Synthetic rubber prices have remained stable in past 2 months Brent crude oil prices increased in past 1 month
Synthetic rubber prices, March fiscal year-ends, Brent crude oil prices, March fiscal year-ends, 2021-
2021-23 (Rs per kg) 23 (USD per bbl.)
Synthetic rubber prices (Rs/kg)
360
Crude oil prices (US$/bbl)
140
310
130
260
120

210 110
100
160
90
110 80

60 70
Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
May-21

May-22

May-23
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Jan-21
Mar-21

Jan-22
Mar-22

Jan-23
Mar-23

Jan-24
Mar-24

60
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
May-21

May-22

May-23
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities

Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components


India Research
5

At spot prices and stable pricing, gross margins of tire companies will get negatively impacted by 500-600 bps from 3QFY24 levels
RM impact on margins of tire companies, March fiscal-year end, 2024 (Rs per kg, Rs/bbl, %)

2QFY24 3QFY24 Change from


average average Spot 2QFY24 levels Contribution
prices prices prices (%) (%) Impact (%)
Gross margin impact analysis
Domestic 149 152 182 22.0 17.50 (1.6)
Natural rubber (Rs/kg)
International 122 149 162 33.2 17.50 (2.4)
Synthetic rubber (Rs/kg) 168 165 182 8.0 15.00 (0.5)
Crude oil (Rs/bbl) Brent 6,790 7,011 7,152 5.3 50.00 (1.1)
Total (5.7)

Note:
(a) We assumed 70% of total crude oil price upswing to be translated to crude-oil derivatives
(b) RM impact generally comes with a quarter lag for the tire companies

Source: Companies, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Gross margins of all the companies have expanded sharply in the last few quarters
Quarterly performance of tire companies, March fiscal-year end, 2021-24 (%)
3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24
Apollo standalone - key ratios (%)
Revenue growth (yoy) 24.2 49.3 81.7 25.4 10.9 9.9 37.8 16.5 12.0 9.5 (0.5) 3.6 2.0
Raw material cost/sales 56.8 61.4 65.8 67.4 69.8 69.4 70.4 70.3 67.3 62.6 60.5 60.2 59.1
Staff cost/sales 6.6 7.5 8.1 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.5
Other expenses/sales 15.2 15.7 15.7 15.2 14.4 15.0 14.1 13.6 13.9 15.3 15.4 14.6 16.2
EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 15.4 10.4 10.3 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.3 12.9 15.9 17.8 19.1 18.1
CEAT - key ratios (%)
Revenue growth (yoy) 26.4 49.6 70.0 23.8 8.8 13.0 47.7 18.7 12.7 11.1 4.2 5.4 8.8
Raw material cost/sales 54.5 58.2 61.3 63.1 66.2 66.8 68.4 67.6 65.4 59.9 58.9 56.7 58.7
Staff cost/sales 8.1 7.9 9.2 7.0 7.1 6.6 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.4 6.6 7.1 7.3
Other expenses/sales 22.7 22.7 20.7 21.0 21.3 19.5 19.7 19.6 19.2 19.8 21.2 21.2 19.9
EBITDA margin (%) 14.7 11.2 8.7 8.9 5.5 7.2 5.9 7.1 8.7 12.9 13.2 15.0 14.1
MRF - key ratios (%)
Revenue growth (yoy) 13.9 30.7 69.8 15.4 5.8 9.8 35.6 18.4 14.6 10.1 12.9 6.4 9.3
Raw material cost/sales 55.2 61.5 62.1 64.5 66.6 67.9 68.5 70.3 67.9 63.0 61.2 59.2 59.9
Staff cost/sales 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.8 7.7 7.1 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.0 6.5 7.1 7.2
Other expenses/sales 15.1 15.3 17.5 17.1 15.6 14.9 16.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 14.7 15.1 15.7
EBITDA margin (%) 21.1 15.7 11.8 10.6 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.2 9.9 14.7 17.6 18.5 17.2
BIL - key ratios (%)
Revenue growth (yoy) (3.6) 16.9 4.5 13.8 (0.0) 17.0 12.1 2.9 (21.1) 4.9 (9.0) 6.2 3.1
Raw material cost/sales 40.3 41.2 42.8 44.6 46.5 45.3 46.6 48.8 51.4 50.7 48.3 48.1 48.0
Staff cost/sales 5.6 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.7 3.7 3.9 3.6 4.5 4.1 5.0 5.0 4.9
Other expenses/sales 22.3 21.9 22.8 23.5 24.5 27.3 29.5 27.5 25.0 23.9 23.7 22.5 21.8
EBITDA margin (%) 31.8 31.9 29.2 27.2 24.4 23.7 20.0 20.1 19.1 21.3 23.0 24.4 25.3

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components


India Research
6

At current spot prices, we see a downside risk to our profitability assumptions


Profitability ratios on per kg basis of tyre companies, March fiscal year-ends, 2017-26E (Rs per kg)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Per ton analysis for tyre companies
Apollo tyres (Standalone)
Sales volumes (tons) 465,546 512,636 596,296 544,652 550,099 632,614 653,490 660,272 693,991 724,251
Yoy growth (%) 7 10 16 (9) 1 15 3 1 5 4
Net realizations (Rs per kg) 191.9 201.0 207.2 203.2 213.3 231.6 264.7 268.4 266.2 266.5
RM cost (Rs per kg) 112.0 127.7 135.1 125.5 126.2 157.9 179.1 162.0 163.4 165.4
Gross profit (Rs per kg) 79.9 73.3 72.0 77.7 87.1 73.6 85.7 106.5 102.8 101.1
Employee cost (Rs per kg) 13.3 13.8 12.4 15.2 16.6 16.2 15.7 16.9 16.9 17.0
Other expenses (Rs per kg) 38.0 35.1 34.9 36.8 33.6 34.8 37.7 40.8 43.8 43.7
EBITDA (Rs per kg) 28.5 24.4 24.8 25.7 37.0 22.6 32.3 48.8 42.2 40.4
CEAT tyres
Sales volumes (tons) 295,798 309,834 329,715 315,354 358,026 384,700 429,700 459,876 486,892 511,810
Yoy growth (%) 10.2 4.7 6.4 (4.4) 13.5 7.5 11.7 7.0 5.9 5.1
Net realizations (Rs per kg) 192.8 200.5 207.2 214.0 211.5 242.1 262.1 259.7 259.7 262.2
RM cost (Rs per kg) 114.1 122.8 125.6 123.8 118.7 156.3 171.2 151.5 155.0 160.2
Gross profit (Rs per kg) 78.6 77.8 81.6 90.1 92.8 85.8 90.9 108.2 104.7 102.0
Employee cost (Rs per kg) 13.0 13.3 14.9 16.9 18.6 17.8 16.9 18.3 18.5 18.6
Other expenses (Rs per kg) 43.4 44.2 47.4 50.4 46.9 49.8 51.3 53.5 52.7 52.8
EBITDA (Rs per kg) 22.3 20.2 19.3 22.8 27.2 18.2 22.7 36.4 33.6 30.5
MRF tyres
Sales volumes (tons) 642,302 683,808 727,750 711,562 703,889 783,508 851,379 897,804 940,433 981,475
Yoy growth (%) 4.6 6.5 6.4 (2.2) (1.1) 11.3 8.7 5.5 4.7 4.4
Net realizations 208.7 218.7 220.7 228.2 229.6 246.5 270.2 278.7 279.3 280.1
RM cost 116.7 133.2 133.4 135.2 132.4 160.6 181.3 166.5 172.1 173.9
Gross profit 92.0 85.5 87.3 93.1 97.2 86.0 88.9 112.2 107.3 106.2
Employee cost 15.6 16.0 16.0 18.9 20.1 19.2 18.7 19.5 19.5 19.7
Other expenses 35.4 36.1 39.6 40.8 35.3 40.6 42.1 43.5 43.7 43.9
EBITDA 41.0 33.4 31.7 33.4 41.8 26.2 28.1 49.1 44.1 42.7
Balkrishna Industries
Sales volumes (tons) 172,420 199,213 211,261 201,760 227,132 288,795 301,181 284,062 309,971 338,466
Yoy growth (%) 16.9 15.5 6.0 (4.5) 12.6 27.1 4.3 (5.7) 9.1 9.2
Net realizations 219.9 234.2 250.9 244.2 253.8 292.5 332.7 318.9 321.5 324.5
RM cost 91.6 107.6 115.7 106.0 101.7 130.8 163.2 151.6 151.8 153.7
Gross profit 128.3 126.6 135.2 138.2 152.1 161.7 169.5 167.3 169.8 170.8
Employee cost 14.9 14.1 14.2 16.3 16.3 14.9 15.3 17.7 16.8 15.9
Other expenses 43.0 44.9 53.8 52.3 55.0 70.1 87.2 70.1 70.9 70.3
EBITDA 70.5 67.6 67.2 69.6 80.8 76.7 67.1 79.5 82.1 84.7

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Automobiles & Components


India Research
7

To justify CMP, APTY has to clock in EBITDA of Rs51.9 per kg (similar to peak profitability achieved in 2QFY24) over FY2027-35E
Reverse DCF analysis, Apollo Tyres, March fiscal year-ends, 2023-35, (Rs mn, %)
CAGR (%)
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2035E 2023-35E
Volumes (MT) 550,099 632,614 653,490 660,272 693,991 724,251 774,948 1,331,505 6.1
ASPs (Rs per MT) 213,296 231,569 264,748 268,449 266,204 266,524 271,855 318,521 1.6
Standalone revenues 117,334 146,494 173,010 177,249 184,743 193,030 210,673 424,112 7.8
Subs revenues 56,636 62,982 72,671 78,331 83,151 87,641 92,023 135,960 5.4
Consolidated revenues 173,970 209,476 245,681 255,581 267,894 280,671 302,696 560,072 7.1
Standalone EBITDA 20,343 14,308 21,109 32,197 29,257 29,267 40,220 69,105 10.4
Standalone EBITDA margin (%) 17.3 9.8 12.2 18.2 15.8 15.2 19.1 16.3
Standalone EBITDA per kg 37.0 22.6 32.3 48.8 42.2 40.4 51.9 51.9 4.0
Subs EBITDA 7,631 11,433 12,027 13,020 13,879 14,625 15,644 23,113 5.6
Subs EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 18.2 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.0
Consolidated EBITDA 27,975 25,741 33,137 45,217 43,135 43,892 55,864 92,218 8.9
Consolidated EBITDA margin (%) 16.1 12.3 13.5 17.7 16.1 15.6 18.5 16.5
EBIT 16,119 12,979 19,356 31,614 28,704 28,669 38,164 62,024 10.2
Tax expense (2,910) (3,179) (5,255) (9,484) (8,611) (8,601) (11,449) (18,607)
EBIT (1-tax) 13,209 9,800 14,101 22,130 20,093 20,068 26,715 43,417 9.8
EBIT margin (%) 9.3 6.2 7.9 12.4 10.7 10.2 12.6 11.1
Depreciation (13,150) (13,997) (14,191) (14,575) (15,603) (16,495) (17,699) (30,194)
Change in working capital 4,616 (1,829) (7,890) (166) (577) (608) 8,865 294
Capex (11,563) (18,164) (7,604) (11,000) (12,000) (23,000) (24,216) (39,205)
FCFF 19,412 3,804 12,798 25,539 23,119 12,956 29,064 34,700 8.7

WACC 12.1
Discounted free cash flow 160,041
Terminal cash flow 10,755
Terminal growth rate (%) 4.5
Terminal value 141,376
Enterprise value 301,417
Net debt/(cash) - March 2025 10,618
Equity value 290,799
CMP (Rs) 455

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Automobiles & Components


India Research
8

To justify CMP, MRF has to clock in EBITDA of Rs65 per kg (33% higher than profitability achieved in FY2024E) over FY2027-35E
Reverse DCF analysis, MRF Tyres, March fiscal year-ends, 2023-35, (Rs mn, %)
CAGR (%)
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2035E 2023-35E
Volumes (MT) 703,889 783,508 851,379 897,804 940,433 981,475 1,040,363 1,658,181 5.7
ASPs (Rs per MT) 226,191 238,673 263,357 271,500 271,853 272,376 277,824 325,515 1.8
Standalone revenues 159,214 187,002 224,216 243,754 255,659 267,330 289,038 539,763 7.6
Subs revenues 2,418 3,272 4,303 4,733 5,112 5,521 5,907 10,149 7.4
Consolidated revenues 161,632 190,274 228,519 248,487 260,771 272,851 294,945 549,912 7.6
Yoy growth (%) (0.5) 17.7 20.1 8.7 4.9 4.6 8.1 8.1
EBITDA 29,423 20,498 23,891 44,098 41,436 41,880 67,977 108,346
EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 10.8 10.5 17.7 15.9 15.3 23.0 19.7
EBITDA per kg 41.8 26.2 28.1 49.1 44.1 42.7 65.3 65.3 7.3
EBIT 18,016 8,447 11,361 29,957 26,818 26,610 52,106 94,137
Tax expense (4,769) (2,221) (3,194) (7,506) (6,709) (6,661) (13,339) (24,099)
EBIT (1-tax) 13,247 6,227 8,166 22,451 20,109 19,949 38,767 70,038 19.6
Depreciation (11,408) (12,051) (12,531) (14,142) (14,617) (15,270) (15,871) (14,209)
Change in working capital 18,222 (25,088) 6,357 (3,174) (1,758) (1,709) 8,701 (2,472)
Capex (8,516) (17,046) (32,901) (10,000) (8,000) (8,000) (8,648) (16,123)
FCFF 34,361 (23,857) (5,847) 23,418 24,969 25,510 54,692 65,651

WACC 12.0
Discounted free cash flow 271,647
Terminal cash flow 17,335
Terminal growth rate (%) 5.0
Terminal value 247,646
Enterprise value 519,294
Net debt/(cash) - March 2025 (43,271)
Equity value 562,564
CMP (Rs) 132,680

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Automobiles & Components


India Research
9

To justify CMP, CEAT has to clock in EBITDA of Rs39 per kg (2% lower than peak profitability achieved in 2QFY24) over FY2027-35E
Reverse DCF analysis, CEAT Tyres, March fiscal year-ends, 2023-35, (Rs mn, %)
CAGR (%)
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2035E 2023-35E
Volumes (MT) 358,026 384,700 429,700 459,876 486,892 511,810 552,755 1,013,637 7.4
ASPs (Rs per MT) 211,515 242,075 262,119 259,698 259,750 262,218 267,462 313,374 1.5
Standalone revenues 75,728 93,126 112,633 119,429 126,470 134,206 147,841 317,648 9.0
Subs revenues 368 508 516 774 836 903 993 2,130 12.5
Consolidated revenues 76,096 93,634 113,149 120,203 127,306 135,109 148,834 319,778 9.0
Yoy growth (%) 12.3 23.0 20.8 6.2 5.9 6.1 10.2 9.1
EBITDA 9,830 7,098 9,738 16,865 16,583 15,898 21,466 39,365 12.3
EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 7.6 8.6 14.1 13.1 11.8 14.5 12.4
EBITDA per kg 27.5 18.5 22.7 36.7 34.1 31.1 38.8 38.8 4.6
EBIT 6,433 2,746 5,045 11,834 10,900 9,565 13,532 22,791 13.4
Tax expense (742) (1,009) (1,472) (2,987) (2,751) (2,414) (3,416) (5,753)
EBIT (1-tax) 5,692 1,737 3,573 8,847 8,149 7,151 10,116 17,038 13.9
EBIT margin (%) 8.5 2.9 4.5 9.8 8.6 7.1 9.1 7.1
Share of profit from associates 363 288 82 125 150 200 210 310
Depreciation (3,396) (4,352) (4,693) (5,031) (5,682) (6,333) (7,934) (16,573)
Change in working capital 4,516 (736) 2,211 497 (383) 280 (1,525) 1,608
Capex (6,347) (9,558) (8,779) (8,000) (9,000) (12,000) (10,418) (21,585)
FCFF 7,620 (3,917) 1,780 6,500 4,598 1,964 6,317 13,944 18.7

WACC (%) 12.0


Terminal growth rate (%) 5.0
Sum of discounted free cash flow 55,382
Terminal cash flow 4,490
Terminal value 64,139
Enterprise value 119,521
Net debt/(cash) - March 2025 16,303
Equity value 103,218
CMP (Rs) 2,552

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

While BIL and MRF are trading at 26-27X on 2-year forward EPS, whereas CEAT and APTY are trading at 16-18X on 2-year forward EPS
Valuation comparison of tyre companies, March fiscal year-ends, 2023-26E (Rs, X, %, USD mn)
Stock price Fair value Market cap P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/B (X) RoE (%)
Company (Rs) Rating (Rs) (USD mn) 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Indian tyre companies
Balkrishna Industries 2,285 SELL 1,950 5,318 41.8 34.4 29.9 25.8 22.5 19.6 17.0 14.8 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.1 14.6 16.0 16.3 16.7
MRF 132,680 SELL 90,000 6,776 73.2 25.4 27.4 26.5 23.2 12.1 12.3 11.5 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.7 5.4 14.1 11.6 10.8
Apollo Tyres 455 SELL 375 3,479 28.2 15.7 16.6 16.0 10.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 8.4 13.6 11.6 11.0
CEAT 2,551 SELL 1,670 1,243 49.2 14.7 16.2 18.3 12.7 7.2 7.2 7.6 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 6.3 18.9 15.2 12.1
Mean 48.1 22.6 22.5 21.7 17.1 11.5 10.9 10.1 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.6 8.6 15.6 13.7 12.7
Median 45.5 20.5 22.0 22.1 17.6 9.6 9.7 9.6 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.4 7.3 15.0 13.4 11.6

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Automobiles & Components


India Research
UPDATE

Insurance
India
Sector View: Attractive NIFTY-50: 21,817 March 19, 2024

Quick Numbers
Moderate month for non-life
Non-life insurance premium growth was moderate at 13% yoy in February
Overall gross premium growth moderate at 13% yoy
2024, retail health and motor OD fared better with 16-21% growth. SAHIs
continue to grow fast, reporting 29% yoy growth, but Star Health’s growth was Motor growth muted at 10% yoy, retail health growth
up to 21%
lower at 19%. ICICI Lombard reported strong growth of 39%, driven by key
segments such as motor and health.
SAHI players up 29% yoy and private GI players up
12% yoy in February 2024
Motor TP continues to drag overall growth
Muted growth in motor premiums (up 10% yoy) and moderate 16% yoy growth
in health premiums led to 13% growth in non-life premiums in February 2024.
Sustained weakness in motor TP (7-9% in the past six months) has led to muted
overall motor premium growth even as OD growth was higher at 16%. Retail
health was strong at 21% yoy in February 2024, driven by SAHIs (up 26%). Group
health growth was moderate at 15%, despite strong 41% growth for SAHIs due
to weakness by multi-line general insurers (up 10%). General insurers reported
moderate 10% growth while SAHIs were up 29% yoy in February 2024.

1933
Health segment and SAHIs drive growth in 11MFY24

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of
The non-life industry (ex-crop) reported 16% growth in 11MFY24, driven by strong
20% growth in health premiums. While motor OD growth was strong at 18%, the
weakness in motor TP (up 11%) led to moderate growth (14%) in overall motor
premiums. Commercial lines such as fire, marine and liability reported muted -
2% to +8% growth in 11MFY24, likely due to pricing pressure in the segment post
removal of IIB tariffs. YTD growth remained strong for SAHIs (up 26% yoy) and
private general insurers (up 18%). PSU GIs reported muted 9% yoy growth.

Trends for listed players


Motor and health drive growth for ICICI Lombard. ICICI Lombard reported
strong 39% yoy growth in February 2024, driven by 76% growth in motor (on a
low base) and 30% in health. The company sold part of its motor TP portfolio in
February, leading to a lower base (ex-motor TP growth was 17%). ICICI Lombard
has maintained market share at 13% and 9% in motor OD and TP, respectively.
Retail health premium growth was strong at 26% yoy in February 2024; 32% in
group health. 11MFY24 premium growth (ex-crop) of 17% was driven largely by
group health (up 31%). Retail health and motor premium growth was lower at
21% and 12% in 11MFY24.

Star Health’s retail growth remains moderate. Retail growth remained


moderate at 17% yoy in February 2024, in line with 17% growth reported in
11MFY24. SAHIs reported higher growth of 26% yoy in February 2024 and 24%
in 11MFY24. Group health growth for Star Health was strong at 61% in February
2024 on a low base, 29% in 11MFY24.

Group health drives growth for Bajaj. Bajaj Allianz reported 18% yoy growth (ex-
crop) in February 2024, driven largely by group health (up 42%). Motor premiums
were flat yoy, leading to decline in market share to 6% from 7% level earlier.
Similarly, 11MFY24 growth of 44% for Bajaj was driven by group health (up 46%). Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Nischint Chawathe M B Mahesh, CFA Varun Palacharla Abhijeet Sakhare Ashlesh Sonje, CFA
11

Overall gross premium growth moderate at 13% yoy in February 2024 (ex-crop)
Exhibit 1: Segment-wise gross direct premium, March fiscal year-ends, 11MFY23-11MFY24, February 2023-
February 2024 (Rs mn)
Feb-24 Feb-23 yoy growth 11MFY24 11MFY23 yoy growth (%)
Fire 14,913 13,912 7 240,558 222,402 8
Marine 3,437 3,536 (3) 46,454 46,922 (1)
Marine hull 889 932 (5) 12,287 12,056 2
Marine cargo 2,548 2,604 (2) 34,167 34,866 (2)
Motor 82,665 74,964 10 827,654 728,600 14
Motor OD 32,819 28,193 16 338,059 285,800 18
Motor TP 49,846 46,771 7 489,596 442,800 11
Engineering 3,940 3,081 28 48,481 37,054 31
Health 79,287 68,323 16 987,167 819,958 20
Retail health 39,245 32,506 21 365,829 306,828 19
Group health 35,318 30,769 15 508,426 422,657 20
Government schemes 4,014 4,427 (9) 101,828 81,483 25
Overseas medical 710 621 14 11,086 8,991 23
Aviation 588 561 5 9,702 8,058 20
Liability 2,957 2,438 21 44,511 45,394 (2)
PA 5,157 4,601 12 71,705 63,674 13
Other 30,792 27,323 13 349,288 354,428 (1)
Crop insurance 23,308 22,124 5 273,523 293,723 (7)
Credit insurance 1,675 1,465 14 15,894 14,726 8
Others 5,808 3,734 56 59,870 45,979 30
Total 223,736 198,739 13 2,625,521 2,326,489 13
Total ex crop 200,428 176,615 13 2,351,998 2,032,766 16

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Motor growth muted at 10% yoy, retail health growth up to 21%


Exhibit 2: Segment wise gross direct premium yoy growth, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Fire 8 21 7 6 3 12 2 6 10 10 11 14 7
Marine 24 5 6 (2) (7) 2 (9) (0) 1 (4) 4 (4) (3)
Marine hull 91 (17) 17 (2) (14) 10 (30) (2) (5) 49 24 (7) (5)
Marine cargo 10 16 4 (3) (5) (3) (1) 0 4 (15) (5) (3) (2)
Motor 12 14 23 23 17 15 16 11 9 12 9 12 10
Motor OD 15 19 24 27 17 22 19 18 12 21 13 18 16
Motor TP 10 12 23 21 18 11 14 7 7 7 6 8 7
Engineering 14 52 71 27 20 22 29 3 44 23 36 33 28
Health 28 17 24 21 17 33 15 33 10 13 23 17 16
Retail health 17 16 19 18 18 18 20 18 23 17 19 22 21
Group health 36 15 22 32 16 19 14 53 (8) 10 24 23 15
Government schemes 85 62 42 (82) 12 93 (68) (24) 51 14 67 (3) (9)
Overseas medical 41 25 24 24 23 44 23 17 12 11 34 27 14
Aviation 45 80 9 23 9 45 188 48 (4) 19 (25) 33 5
Liability (25) 1 4 (23) (4) (15) (7) (5) 6 (5) 8 15 21
PA (18) (20) 32 24 23 (14) 39 22 (8) 2 (9) 39 12
Other 54 (4) 43 24 18 (18) (37) 56 59 (14) 8 (34) 13
Crop insurance 75 (8) 345 34 20 (24) (40) 58 72 (27) 4 (43) 5
Credit insurance 0 6 4 5 (1) 13 (25) 24 40 (10) 7 15 14
Others 3 11 22 21 18 14 24 44 28 37 37 40 56
Total 20 12 20 18 15 13 (4) 28 13 9 13 7 13
Total ex crop 15 15 20 18 14 20 15 20 10 12 15 16 13

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
12

Private insurers reported moderate 12% yoy growth in February 2024; SAHI up 29% yoy
Exhibit 3: Company-wise gross direct premium, March fiscal year-ends, February 2023-February 2024 (Rs
mn)
Feb-24 Feb-23 yoy growth (%) 11MFY24 11MFY23 yoy growth (%)
General insurers
Acko General 1,474 1,177 25 16,889 13,359 26
Bajaj Allianz 12,948 9,348 39 188,100 142,178 32
Cholamandalam MS 6,610 5,866 13 68,525 55,715 23
Go Digit 6,117 4,617 32 72,567 54,915 32
HDFC ERGO General 15,463 14,773 5 164,589 146,716 12
ICICI -Lombard 18,542 13,381 39 229,360 194,665 18
IFFCO -Tokio 6,332 8,319 (24) 91,264 88,768 3
New India 24,174 23,188 4 341,334 315,817 8
Reliance General 7,300 6,754 8 107,848 95,433 13
Royal Sundaram 3,020 2,674 13 33,143 30,400 9
SBI General 12,061 13,961 (14) 113,291 96,071 18
Shriram General 2,786 2,154 29 27,156 20,064 35
Tata-AIG 11,802 11,256 5 136,867 117,973 16
United India 16,271 13,050 25 179,386 161,153 11
Universal Sompo 2,507 2,277 10 43,521 38,757 12
Others 33,797 29,947 13 406,859 371,098 10
Total 182,805 163,811 12 2,234,722 1,952,947 14
Total (PSU) 64,173 58,165 10 824,808 757,360 9
Total (private) 118,631 105,646 12 1,409,914 1,195,587 18
Standalone health insurers .
Niva Bupa 5,034 3,730 35 48,991 35,207 39
Religare 6,265 4,578 37 61,059 45,965 33
Star Health 14,138 11,853 19 131,120 111,320 18
Others 1,544 1,221 26 15,032 11,949 26
Total 30,002 23,198 29 287,990 228,139 26
Specialised insurers
AIC (Crop) 9,763 10,771 (9) 91,757 135,162 (32)
ECGC (Export & Credit) 1,167 959 22 11,052 10,242 8
Total 10,930 11,730 (7) 102,809 145,404 (29)
Industry total 223,736 198,739 13 2,625,521 2,326,489 13

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
13

SAHI players up 29% yoy and private GI players up 12% yoy in February 2024
Exhibit 4: Player-wise gross direct premium growth yoy, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 53 53 29 66 8 31 7 13 22 43 29 31 25
Bajaj Allianz 15 11 29 12 23 51 64 51 50 (9) 18 18 39
Cholamandalam MS 34 17 36 37 18 30 37 37 19 10 13 12 13
Digit (7) 35 40 19 30 42 31 31 31 36 25 36 32
HDFC ERGO General 33 11 13 18 3 4 9 8 40 3 13 20 5
ICICI -Lombard (5) 7 17 21 20 22 16 13 5 17 20 14 39
IFFCO -Tokio 26 22 49 26 2 (0) (10) 13 5 (0) (7) (7) (24)
New India 3 11 10 10 5 9 3 12 15 (1) 14 3 4
Reliance General 7 (6) 16 13 15 15 15 12 13 17 10 10 8
Royal Sundaram 14 14 23 4 4 4 11 5 1 (1) 10 23 13
SBI General 52 16 4 12 21 61 (17) 31 56 37 50 23 (14)
Shriram General 37 43 45 45 31 22 23 37 37 43 44 41 29
Tata-AIG 21 23 35 29 33 11 26 31 7 9 3 1 5
United India 17 (11) 12 3 4 14 7 10 7 7 19 15 25
Universal Sompo 20 (21) 33 22 12 38 34 7 20 10 6 (26) 10
Total 16 10 19 17 13 18 13 23 12 6 14 11 12
Total (PSU) 8 4 11 13 7 5 7 31 (4) 0 13 6 10
Total (private) 20 13 25 21 17 26 16 19 22 9 15 15 12
Standalone health insurers
Niva Bupa 51 46 52 43 35 37 38 37 42 46 39 34 35
Care 36 13 38 31 29 36 40 24 40 25 29 32 37
Star Health 16 12 25 16 19 17 19 15 18 17 15 18 19
Total 27 22 34 23 23 24 26 23 29 23 26 29 29
Specialised insurers
AIC (Crop) 139 20 NM 60 220 (57) (69) 91 7 NM (21) (63) (9)
ECGC (Export & Credit) (8) (1) - 9 (1) 1 (16) 36 20 (5) 4 12 22
Total 111 17 162 27 84 (54) (69) 87 9 154 (19) (60) (7)
Industry total 20 12 20 18 15 13 (4) 28 13 9 13 7 13

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
14

Private GI players maintain share; SAHIs gain share


Exhibit 5: Player-wise gross direct premium market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Bajaj General 4.7 4.6 6.4 5.5 5.6 14.2 7.1 6.3 7.7 5.8 5.7 7.3 5.8
Cholamandalam MS 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 3.0
Go Digit 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.3 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.7
HDFC ERGO 7.4 8.1 6.6 5.6 4.7 4.6 9.6 6.3 7.7 5.7 6.7 5.5 6.9
ICICI -Lombard 6.7 6.4 10.7 9.5 9.4 9.0 8.2 6.0 9.1 10.0 8.0 8.7 8.3
IFFCO -Tokio 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.8
Magma HDI 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.3
National 4.7 6.2 4.6 5.4 6.8 4.3 5.7 7.9 4.1 7.1 3.9 3.9 4.2
New India 11.7 12.0 19.8 13.3 14.2 12.3 9.8 9.9 13.4 11.3 16.4 12.0 10.8
Oriental 6.4 5.0 6.0 7.6 6.2 7.7 4.1 7.1 5.6 5.9 6.9 6.2 6.5
Reliance General 3.4 3.3 4.4 3.9 4.9 3.4 3.9 6.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.1 3.3
Royal Sundaram 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3
SBI General 7.0 5.0 2.4 3.3 3.7 4.1 5.3 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.0 5.9 5.4
Tata-AIG 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.2 5.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 5.4 5.5 4.9 4.8 5.3
United India 6.6 6.3 7.1 8.1 6.4 7.7 5.5 5.5 6.3 6.9 6.4 8.3 7.3
Universal Sompo 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1
Total 82.4 80.5 82.8 87.6 86.4 87.2 81.9 80.2 86.6 86.4 84.1 84.3 81.7
Total (PSU) 29.3 29.5 37.5 34.3 33.6 31.9 25.1 30.4 29.4 31.2 33.5 30.4 28.7
Total (private) 53.2 51.0 45.3 53.3 52.8 55.2 56.8 49.8 57.2 55.3 50.6 53.9 53.0
Standalone health insurers
Aditya Birla 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.4
HDFC ERGO Health — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Cigna TTK 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7
Niva Bupa 1.9 2.3 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.2
Reliance Health (5) — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Religare 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.8
Star Health 6.0 7.5 3.2 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.2 6.3
Total 11.7 14.1 8.1 11.5 12.1 10.0 11.0 9.2 10.5 11.9 11.7 12.1 13.4
Specialised insurers
AIC (Crop) 5.4 4.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 2.4 6.8 10.0 2.5 1.2 3.7 3.2 4.4
ECGC (Export & Credit) 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Total 5.9 5.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.8 7.1 10.6 2.9 1.7 4.2 3.6 4.9
Industry 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
15

Private GI players maintain share; SAHIs gain share


Exhibit 6: Player-wise gross direct premium (ex-crop) market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Bajaj General 5.3 5.2 6.5 5.6 5.9 15.3 5.6 6.1 6.7 5.6 6.0 6.9 5.5
Cholamandalam MS 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.2
Go Digit 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.7 3.1
HDFC ERGO 5.5 7.0 5.9 5.7 5.0 5.1 5.7 5.3 6.4 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.4
ICICI -Lombard 7.6 7.2 10.8 9.7 9.1 7.7 9.1 7.7 10.0 10.2 8.6 9.5 9.3
IFFCO -Tokio 4.0 3.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.2
Magma HDI 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.5
National 5.3 6.9 4.7 5.5 7.2 4.8 7.2 10.5 4.5 7.5 4.4 4.2 4.6
New India 13.1 13.4 19.9 13.6 15.0 13.7 12.5 13.1 14.7 12.0 18.5 13.1 12.1
Oriental 7.2 5.6 6.0 7.8 6.6 6.6 5.2 8.8 5.7 5.6 6.4 6.1 6.1
Reliance General 3.1 2.3 4.4 2.9 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.8
Royal Sundaram 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
SBI General 6.2 3.8 2.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.9 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.9
Tata-AIG 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.9
United India 7.4 7.7 7.2 8.2 6.8 7.8 7.0 5.9 6.8 7.3 6.5 9.1 8.1
Universal Sompo 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1
Total 86.3 83.3 91.5 87.7 86.6 88.4 85.7 87.0 88.0 86.9 86.2 86.3 84.4
Total (PSU) 32.9 33.7 37.8 35.1 35.6 32.8 31.9 38.4 31.6 32.3 35.8 32.5 31.0
Total (private) 53.4 49.7 53.7 52.6 51.1 55.6 53.8 48.7 56.4 54.5 50.4 53.9 53.5
Standalone health insurers
Aditya Birla 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.5
Niva Bupa 2.1 2.6 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.5
Care 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.4 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.1
Star Health 6.7 8.4 3.2 5.6 5.8 5.3 6.6 5.7 5.2 5.8 6.1 5.7 7.1
Total 13.1 15.9 8.2 11.8 12.8 11.2 14.0 12.2 11.5 12.6 13.3 13.2 15.0
Specialised insurers
AIC (Crop) — 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ECGC (Export & Credit) 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6
Total 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Motor premium growth moderate at 13% yoy; ICICI Lombard up 76% on a low base in February 2024
Exhibit 7: Player-wise motor premium growth yoy, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Acko General 27 33 37 23 18 11 17 12 18 36 40 34 37
Bajaj Allianz 13 20 26 31 21 14 18 10 5 9 2 7 (0)
Cholamandalam MS 38 21 55 38 17 13 17 11 8 4 2 3 8
Go Digit (1) 49 63 64 46 67 52 38 24 40 41 29 35
HDFC ERGO General 12 22 19 15 (5) (10) 1 5 3 9 27 50 47
ICICI -Lombard (33) (8) (2) 6 11 10 15 7 (2) 10 11 8 76
IFFCO -Tokio 17 23 53 45 43 31 23 16 4 2 (9) (3) (40)
New India 5 11 18 17 20 16 10 (1) 3 5 (1) 4 1
Reliance General 3 (16) 9 14 17 16 5 10 3 12 12 1 (3)
Royal Sundaram 11 15 14 20 15 12 7 (2) (6) (9) 1 12 12
SBI General 95 (30) (31) (24) (21) (9) 35 79 125 75 51 68 (24)
Shriram General 34 39 41 40 26 20 21 34 37 44 45 41 30
Tata-AIG 21 36 47 51 38 27 21 9 7 12 (2) (11) (1)
United India 14 16 19 19 19 19 18 16 20 23 13 15 19
Universal Sompo 10 25 1 (10) 4 22 33 3 12 31 46 50 18
Total 12 14 23 23 17 15 16 11 9 12 9 12 10
Total (PSU) 12 16 24 23 18 15 13 6 9 7 (0) 5 4
Total (private) 12 14 23 23 17 15 18 13 9 14 13 15 13

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
16

ICICI Lombard’s market share up to 11%


Exhibit 8: Player-wise motor insurance market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
Bajaj General 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9
Cholamandalam MS 5.9 5.1 6.5 5.8 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.7
Go Digit 4.5 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.5
HDFC ERGO 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.6 6.0 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.3
ICICI -Lombard 6.7 10.4 9.8 9.7 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 11.1 11.9 10.7 10.4 10.8
IFFCO -Tokio 5.6 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.0
Magma HDI 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.7
National 6.6 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1
New India 11.0 10.7 10.9 10.8 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.7 10.4 10.4 10.1
Oriental 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9
Reliance General 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.3 5.0 5.2 5.8 5.2 5.0 4.5
Royal Sundaram 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.8
SBI General 7.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.2 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.0
Shriram General 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1
Tata-AIG 8.7 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.8
United India 7.8 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.4 8.0 7.9 8.2 8.4
Universal Sompo 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Total (PSU) 30.0 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.2 28.3 26.9 27.0 28.0 28.4 28.4
Total (private) 70.0 70.7 70.9 70.6 70.9 71.6 71.8 71.7 73.1 73.0 72.0 71.6 71.6

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

ICICI Lombard’s motor OD growth up to 20% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 9: Player-wise motor OD premium growth yoy, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Acko General 40 46 67 50 38 30 34 31 35 53 58 49 55
Bajaj Allianz 28 34 33 42 35 21 26 19 8 17 4 10 0
Cholamandalam MS 53 27 70 51 25 19 24 21 9 13 5 3 12
Go Digit 52 80 72 79 58 60 54 54 38 54 43 31 32
HDFC ERGO General 19 30 21 17 (1) (4) 9 14 9 19 38 63 70
ICICI -Lombard 1 (6) (0) 11 15 11 17 17 4 22 15 14 20
IFFCO -Tokio 30 33 67 59 61 39 30 25 7 6 (4) (0) (26)
New India 17 26 29 36 42 35 21 8 2 8 (1) 5 (1)
Reliance General (19) (17) (9) 5 0 4 7 (2) 9 26 22 23 41
Royal Sundaram 1 11 18 17 19 15 1 (2) (14) (11) (24) (17) (18)
SBI General (28) (27) (32) (15) (11) (0) 46 124 130 137 111 136 114
Shriram General 35 48 51 59 46 34 32 44 44 61 53 50 42
Tata-AIG 19 32 32 40 29 22 23 18 11 24 12 5 13
United India 32 30 25 29 29 27 24 27 25 36 17 13 15
Universal Sompo (19) (6) (18) (24) (15) (8) 7 (23) 0 25 21 48 20
Total 15 19 24 27 17 22 19 18 12 21 13 18 16
Total (PSU) 27 32 36 39 12 54 19 13 8 10 (2) 3 1
Total (private) 12 15 20 24 19 14 19 19 13 25 19 23 22

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
17

ICICI Lombard gains share in motor OD segment


Exhibit 10: Player-wise motor OD insurance market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9
Bajaj General 7.6 8.3 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.5 7.6 7.3 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.6
Cholamandalam MS 6.0 5.1 7.1 6.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.8
Go Digit 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.9
HDFC ERGO 5.7 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.5 8.2 8.1 8.3
ICICI -Lombard 12.9 12.5 11.4 11.7 12.0 11.7 11.7 12.1 12.9 14.4 13.3 12.9 13.4
IFFCO -Tokio 6.8 6.2 7.1 7.2 7.3 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.0 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.3
Magma HDI 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9
National 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.0 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.8
New India 10.3 9.8 10.1 9.9 11.2 11.2 10.2 9.2 8.8 8.7 9.2 9.2 8.7
Oriental 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6
Reliance General 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.0
Royal Sundaram 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0
SBI General 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.9 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.5
Shriram General 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Tata-AIG 8.9 10.2 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.7
United India 5.9 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.1 5.7 5.9 5.8
Universal Sompo 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Total (PSU) 25.4 24.3 24.5 24.0 24.5 24.1 23.1 22.3 21.9 21.4 21.9 22.5 22.1
Total (private) 74.6 75.7 75.5 76.0 75.5 75.9 76.9 77.7 78.1 78.6 78.1 77.5 77.9

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Motor TP growth remained weak for most players


Exhibit 11: Player-wise motor TP premium growth yoy, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
Acko General 21 26 25 12 8 2 8 3 9 27 30 27 29
Bajaj Allianz 3 10 20 22 11 10 12 2 2 2 (0) 4 (1)
Cholamandalam MS 30 18 45 29 12 9 12 5 8 (0) 0 4 5
Go Digit (17) 40 60 56 41 71 52 31 17 33 40 28 37
HDFC ERGO General 7 17 17 14 (8) (15) (5) (3) (2) 1 17 39 27
ICICI -Lombard (64) (9) (3) 2 7 10 13 (1) (8) (0) 7 3 220
IFFCO -Tokio 9 16 40 32 28 23 17 7 1 (2) (12) (6) (51)
New India (1) 5 12 8 8 5 3 (6) 3 4 (1) 3 2
Reliance General 17 (16) 28 22 31 25 3 20 (0) 4 5 (9) (22)
Royal Sundaram 19 17 11 23 13 9 12 (3) (0) (7) 23 31 31
SBI General 184 (32) (29) (31) (29) (17) 24 47 119 41 21 36 (49)
Shriram General 34 37 38 36 22 16 18 31 35 40 43 39 27
Tata-AIG 22 39 59 61 45 31 18 3 4 4 (13) (21) (10)
United India 8 11 17 16 15 16 16 12 18 17 11 16 20
Universal Sompo 64 72 27 7 26 54 60 31 24 37 73 53 17
Total 10 12 23 21 18 11 14 7 7 7 6 8 7
Total (PSU) 6 9 19 16 22 1 9 2 9 5 1 5 6
Total (private) 12 13 24 23 16 16 16 9 7 7 9 9 7

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
18

ICICI Lombard market share maintained at 9% in motor TP


Exhibit 12: Player-wise motor TP insurance market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
Bajaj General 5.8 6.4 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
Cholamandalam MS 5.8 5.1 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.7
Go Digit 4.6 7.3 7.4 6.7 6.8 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.4 5.7 5.3 5.9
HDFC ERGO 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5 4.9
ICICI -Lombard 3.0 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.3 9.8 10.2 8.9 8.7 9.1
IFFCO -Tokio 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.1 3.8 2.2
Magma HDI 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
National 7.0 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9
New India 11.4 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.3 10.9 10.3 10.4 11.3 11.1 10.9
Oriental 5.4 5.6 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.8
Reliance General 5.8 4.2 3.9 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.3 5.1 5.2 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.2
Royal Sundaram 2.7 3.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.4 3.4
SBI General 9.8 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.6
Shriram General 3.4 3.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.4 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.0
Tata-AIG 8.5 9.8 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.1 7.2 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.7 7.2
United India 8.9 8.6 8.5 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.9 9.3 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.6 10.0
Universal Sompo 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Total (PSU) 32.8 32.4 32.4 33.2 32.2 31.4 32.0 32.3 30.4 30.8 32.2 32.3 32.6
Total (private) 67.2 67.6 67.6 66.8 67.8 68.6 68.0 67.7 69.6 69.2 67.8 67.7 67.4

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Private GIs reported moderate 15% growth in health insurance; SAHIs up 30% yoy in February 2024
Exhibit 13: Player-wise health premium growth yoy, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 95 68 17 98 (6) 48 (4) 28 38 48 15 31 18
Bajaj Allianz 17 (12) 42 (26) 31 887 28 13 48 48 97 103 29
Cholamandalam MS 64 13 35 50 12 28 45 57 24 30 14 29 4
Go Digit 247 111 160 103 105 110 19 65 42 49 (4) 93 27
HDFC ERGO General 14 18 18 16 9 10 16 26 28 22 15 16 18
ICICI -Lombard 32 33 40 47 27 21 26 14 22 29 22 28 30
IFFCO -Tokio 8 (70) 125 (8) (24) (45) (56) (29) (20) (56) (54) (37) (63)
New India 18 60 6 21 6 11 (3) 33 22 (7) 23 2 (2)
Reliance General 16 22 45 28 7 51 (2) 35 183 11 (0) 4 15
Royal Sundaram 14 6 17 (23) 7 18 22 45 99 51 88 40 10
SBI General 72 (6) 65 35 33 8 33 20 42 33 52 35 (13)
Shriram General 144 211 (3,500) 73 50 54 (36) (10) (14) (30) (50) (19) 18
Tata-AIG 35 36 40 20 44 21 54 14 56 (1) 22 15 18
United India 65 (14) 23 (7) 2 (16) (7) (2) 13 48 7 15 41
Universal Sompo 125 40 42 114 87 244 68 (25) 86 213 67 164 3
Total 28 13 21 20 13 36 9 36 3 8 21 13 9
Total (PSU) 21 19 6 16 7 (13) (0) 51 (19) (3) 18 (4) 5
Total (private) 36 7 50 25 24 131 21 16 44 26 27 36 15
Standalone health insurers
Niva Bupa 52 46 52 44 36 37 38 37 43 46 39 34 35
Care 48 23 46 38 33 39 44 29 47 31 34 36 40
Star Health 16 12 25 16 19 17 19 15 18 17 15 18 19
Total 29 24 36 24 25 25 27 24 31 24 27 29 30
Industry total 28 17 24 21 17 33 15 33 10 13 23 17 16

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
19

PSU insurers continue to lose share in health insurance to SAHI players


Exhibit 14: Player-wise health insurance market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8
Bajaj General 2.7 2.6 3.9 2.9 3.2 24.1 3.5 5.3 5.3 3.6 4.3 6.0 3.0
Cholamandalam MS 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8
Go Digit 1.1 0.7 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.2
HDFC ERGO 6.3 9.7 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.1 5.7 4.3 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.3 6.3
ICICI -Lombard 5.5 4.2 7.7 8.4 5.7 4.1 6.9 4.5 6.0 6.4 4.9 6.3 6.1
IFFCO -Tokio 1.6 1.1 3.2 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.3 2.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.5 0.5
Magma HDI 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
National 4.0 6.3 4.2 4.2 9.1 3.5 8.0 15.9 3.6 11.8 4.1 3.5 4.1
New India 14.8 12.5 27.5 14.7 17.5 15.8 12.6 15.1 19.1 13.4 24.5 15.7 12.5
Oriental 10.3 5.2 6.0 10.9 7.9 6.7 5.7 11.1 6.6 6.6 8.4 4.9 7.5
Reliance General 1.3 1.0 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 3.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3
Royal Sundaram 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4
SBI General 4.6 3.3 1.7 2.9 2.4 1.6 2.9 1.8 2.7 2.3 2.4 4.7 3.4
Tata-AIG 2.9 3.1 2.1 2.9 3.3 2.3 3.4 2.4 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.2 3.0
United India 6.7 7.4 9.6 8.1 5.8 7.0 5.9 4.4 6.9 7.1 5.1 11.0 8.2
Universal Sompo 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
Total 66.9 61.3 70.7 71.2 69.2 77.1 65.3 74.6 69.9 68.4 68.7 71.3 63.0
Total (PSU) 35.8 31.4 47.4 38.0 40.3 33.0 32.1 46.4 36.2 39.0 42.0 35.1 32.3
Total (private) 31.0 30.0 23.3 33.3 28.9 44.1 33.2 28.2 33.7 29.3 26.6 36.2 30.7
Standalone health insurers
Aditya Birla 2.5 3.8 2.2 2.3 4.1 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.0 3.5
Niva Bupa 5.4 6.2 3.3 5.2 4.9 3.7 5.8 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.1 4.8 6.2
Care 6.4 6.1 4.6 6.0 6.2 4.9 8.1 5.1 6.4 6.7 6.2 5.7 7.7
Star Health 17.1 20.7 7.6 13.8 14.2 11.1 16.4 11.8 13.7 14.7 14.5 12.4 17.6
Total 33.1 38.7 18.9 28.8 30.8 22.9 34.7 25.4 30.1 31.6 31.3 28.7 37.0

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Star Health reported 17% growth in retail health, lower than industry growth of 21%
Exhibit 15: Player-wise retail health premium growth yoy, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General (3) 1,040 1,409 1,482 1,187 1,329 1,310 1,013 919 602 431 290 250 372
Bajaj Allianz 19 18 10 17 9 10 9 5 10 15 18 14 16
Cholamandalam MS 61 19 59 33 4 25 42 (9) 21 13 8 19 (7)
Go Digit 80 57 43 26 44 43 31 11 30 1 1 10 18
HDFC ERGO General 14 17 16 11 10 12 13 17 17 12 19 15 18
ICICI -Lombard 14 27 23 25 21 20 19 18 18 14 17 28 26
IFFCO -Tokio 2 (1) 25 14 26 22 44 6 25 16 19 31 (4)
New India 1 2 7 7 4 11 19 17 21 18 16 20 20
Reliance General 89 85 51 50 56 69 72 48 48 26 33 24 29
Royal Sundaram 3 10 2 5 4 2 3 (5) 7 9 (8) (2) (4)
SBI General 20 16 21 19 8 15 2 5 9 (9) (10) 2 (18)
Tata-AIG 37 41 32 22 21 31 39 36 42 20 29 29 32
United India 1 1 (0) 23 39 13 4 (1) 11 (0) 11 20 21
Universal Sompo 2 (3) (14) (2) (1) (2) 4 (12) 4 (19) (7) 21 (10)
Total 10 13 12 13 12 14 15 11 18 10 13 16 14
Total (PSU) 1 2 3 9 9 10 10 8 17 8 9 14 14
Total (private) 21 22 22 18 14 18 20 15 19 12 16 18 15
Standalone health insurers
Niva Bupa 29 35 22 26 22 23 25 28 30 24 32 45 37
Care 40 35 37 44 43 47 56 49 60 42 41 39 48
Star Health 18 12 25 15 19 16 18 16 18 17 16 16 17
Total 23 19 26 21 23 22 25 23 27 22 24 26 26
Industry total 17 16 19 18 18 18 20 18 23 17 19 22 21

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
20

SAHIs’ share in retail health up to 56% in February 2024 from 54% last year
Exhibit 16: Player-wise retail health insurance market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Bajaj General 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
Cholamandalam MS 1.6 1.0 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.2
Go Digit 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
HDFC ERGO 9.6 11.0 9.8 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.8 9.1 8.9 9.1 9.8 9.1 9.4
ICICI -Lombard 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0
IFFCO -Tokio 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Magma HDI 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
National 6.1 5.1 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.6
New India 7.6 6.6 8.7 6.9 6.9 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6
Oriental 5.0 4.2 5.5 4.9 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.2
Reliance General 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Royal Sundaram 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
SBI General 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2
Tata-AIG 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1
United India 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7
Universal Sompo 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total 46.2 44.0 46.0 45.6 44.5 44.7 44.6 43.7 43.6 43.4 43.8 43.1 43.7
Total (PSU) 22.3 19.3 24.9 21.9 21.6 21.6 21.3 20.6 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.1
Total (private) 23.8 24.6 21.2 23.7 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.1 23.1 22.8 23.0 22.3 22.6
Standalone health insurers
Aditya Birla 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.9
Niva Bupa 7.7 8.4 8.6 9.3 8.7 8.6 8.7 9.3 9.2 8.9 9.6 9.9 8.7
Care 8.2 7.9 9.2 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0
Star Health 33.9 35.7 29.3 32.4 33.8 33.3 33.1 33.2 33.0 34.4 32.5 32.6 32.9
Total 53.8 56.0 54.0 54.4 55.5 55.3 55.4 56.3 56.4 56.6 56.2 56.9 56.3

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Star Health grew at 28% yoy in group health segment; SAHIs grew faster at 41%
Exhibit 17: Player-wise group health premium growth yoy, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Bajaj Allianz 27 3 50 22 48 107 42 35 12 68 47 45 42
Cholamandalam MS 91 (31) 3 143 55 44 54 385 20 93 44 27 86
HDFC ERGO General 15 19 21 27 7 5 24 58 57 50 7 16 18
ICICI -Lombard 40 40 44 55 29 18 31 13 24 34 23 29 32
IFFCO -Tokio 9 (23) (3) (11) (31) (51) (63) (74) (26) (65) (70) (50) (74)
New India 25 2 (0) 25 6 (0) (15) 37 20 (12) 20 (3) (9)
Reliance General 85 (18) 57 45 22 50 8 7 30 16 (18) (5) (10)
Royal Sundaram 37 (1) 24 (38) 12 31 39 144 221 117 209 63 30
SBI General 91 (2) 79 41 44 5 48 28 55 58 83 39 (12)
Tata-AIG 33 31 42 15 65 20 64 5 71 (9) 8 1 8
United India (22) 12 29 15 (24) 1 40 14 10 9 13 (26) 67
Universal Sompo 989 191 52 373 129 534 110 (28) 153 695 236 95 12
Total 32 9 19 32 14 17 11 57 (14) 6 22 20 10
Total (PSU) 17 1 2 25 4 8 0 82 (42) (9) 21 1 5
Total (private) 53 20 49 42 31 30 24 22 36 36 23 32 14
Standalone health insurers
Niva Bupa 145 95 167 114 82 93 82 67 88 108 53 10 30
Care 65 1 59 34 26 33 35 9 35 21 26 32 28
Star Health (7) 16 35 32 18 35 37 9 26 18 8 46 61
Total 56 48 59 34 30 34 33 28 41 28 37 36 41
Industry total 36 15 22 32 16 19 14 53 (8) 10 24 23 15

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
21

GI players still dominate the group health segment


Exhibit 18: Player-wise group health insurance market share, February 2023-February 2024 (%)
Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24
General insurers
Acko General 1.6 2.8 0.9 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5
Bajaj General 3.1 2.6 5.1 2.9 3.7 7.3 4.1 7.1 6.4 4.7 3.4 6.8 3.8
Cholamandalam MS 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4
Go Digit 2.2 1.5 3.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.4 1.2 2.6 2.5
HDFC ERGO 3.6 9.0 3.7 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.0 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 3.8
ICICI -Lombard 8.8 5.9 11.0 11.9 8.1 7.4 10.0 5.5 10.4 9.5 6.7 11.0 10.1
IFFCO -Tokio 2.9 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.3 1.9 0.7 2.1 0.9 0.5 1.9 0.7
Magma HDI 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1
National 2.2 4.9 4.3 3.3 7.9 7.3 10.1 23.2 3.4 11.9 3.4 2.3 3.0
New India 24.9 22.1 30.4 20.6 28.2 17.9 17.6 20.7 16.9 19.9 39.9 14.9 19.7
Oriental 12.2 4.1 6.0 14.4 8.1 11.6 6.8 13.2 10.9 9.4 9.5 7.3 11.8
Reliance General 1.7 1.0 4.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 1.3 2.5 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.3
Royal Sundaram 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.5
SBI General 8.3 6.1 2.3 3.8 3.4 2.9 4.3 2.1 4.7 3.3 3.6 9.3 6.3
Tata-AIG 3.9 4.1 2.3 2.8 3.9 3.5 3.8 2.3 4.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 3.7
United India 2.3 10.9 7.8 11.1 3.8 10.0 7.5 3.5 4.3 4.8 4.7 2.6 3.4
Universal Sompo 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5
Total 83.6 80.6 85.8 87.9 83.4 86.0 82.8 89.2 81.7 82.8 85.4 81.4 79.8
Total (PSU) 41.6 41.9 48.5 49.4 48.0 46.7 41.9 60.7 35.5 45.9 57.5 27.1 37.9
Total (private) 42.0 38.7 37.3 38.6 35.4 39.3 40.8 28.5 46.2 36.9 27.8 54.3 41.9
Standalone health insurers
Aditya Birla 3.0 6.4 2.7 2.3 6.0 3.2 3.0 3.3 4.6 4.1 3.8 6.4 4.6
Cigna TTK 2.1 2.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.0 2.5 1.6 1.2 2.6 2.4
Niva Bupa 3.7 4.0 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.4 2.1 3.3 3.9 3.8 2.8 4.2
Care 5.4 4.1 3.6 4.1 4.8 4.9 7.1 3.2 5.6 5.6 4.1 4.7 6.0
Star Health 2.1 2.8 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.1 3.0
Total 16.4 19.4 14.2 12.1 16.6 14.0 17.2 10.8 18.3 17.2 14.6 18.6 20.2

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
22

Bajaj’s premium (ex-crop) up 18% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 19: Segment-wise gross direct premium growth yoy for Bajaj Allianz, March fiscal year-end, February
2024 (Rs mn)
Gross direct
premium (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) % of total
Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24
Fire 1,498 22,481 12 12 12 12
Marine 189 2,824 33 6 1 2
Marine hull 39 214 15 (28) — —
Marine cargo 151 2,610 38 10 1 1
Motor 4,848 53,049 (0) 12 37 28
Motor OD 2,160 24,602 0 18 17 13
Motor TP 2,688 28,447 (1) 7 21 15
Engineering 257 3,816 7 39 2 2
Health 2,380 64,164 29 120 18 34
Retail health 904 8,624 16 12 7 5
Group health 1,352 26,269 42 46 10 14
Government schemes 11 27,518 NM 1,327 — 15
Overseas medical 113 1,753 (2) 17 1 1
Aviation 9 162 9 39 — —
Liability 259 5,812 15 22 2 3
PA 128 2,190 (26) 4 1 1
Other 3,379 33,601 551 2 26 18
Crop insurance 1,923 23,030 NM (16) 15 12
Credit insurance 8 182 (62) 14 — —
Others 1,449 10,390 191 98 11 6
Total 12,948 188,100 39 32 100 100
Total (ex-crop) 11,025 165,070 18 44

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Chola’s premium (ex-crop) up 9% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 20: Segment-wise gross direct premium growth yoy for Chola, March fiscal year-end, February 2024
(Rs mn)
Gross direct
premium (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) % of total
Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24
Fire 544 6,616 19 11 8 10
Marine 84 1,250 (5) 7 1 2
Marine hull 22 160 34 35 — —
Marine cargo 62 1,091 (14) 4 1 2
Motor 4,732 44,506 8 14 72 65
Engineering 35 340 51 30 1— 0
Health 615 6,906 4 29 9 10
Retail health 486 5,150 (7) 17 7 8
Group health 128 1,741 86 66 2 3
Government schemes — — NM (100) — —
Overseas medical 1 15 (11) 58 — —
Aviation — — NM NM — —
Liability 8 191 (4) (14) — —
PA 298 3,215 14 14 5 5
Other 293 5,502 732 664 4 8
Crop insurance 200 4,656 NM NM 3 7
Credit insurance — — NM NM — —
Others 93 845 164 17 1 1
Total 6,610 68,525 13 23 100 100
Total (ex-crop) 6,410 63,869 9 15

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
23

Go Digit’s premium (ex-crop) grew 32% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 21: Segment-wise gross direct premium growth yoy for Go Digit, March fiscal year-end, February
2024 (Rs mn)
Gross direct
premium (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) % of total
Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24
Fire 195 4,670 9 18 3 6
Marine 15 357 115 11 — 0
Marine hull — 21 NM NM — —
Marine cargo 15 336 115 4 — 0
Motor 4,519 49,636 35 43 74 68
Engineering 66 780 (4) 43 1 1
Health 933 11,857 27 69 15 16
Retail health 50 531 18 21 1 1
Group health 878 11,244 28 73 14 15
Government schemes — — NM NM — —
Overseas medical 5 81 (4) 17 — —
Aviation — — NM NM — —
Liability 94 1,223 22 (81) 2 2
PA 208 2,911 30 94 3 4
Other 86 1,133 74 123 1 2
Crop insurance — — NM NM — —
Credit insurance — — NM NM — —
Others 86 1,133 74 123 1 2
Total 6,117 72,567 32 32 100 100
Total (ex-crop) 6,117 72,567 32 32

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

HDFC ERGO’s premium (ex-crop) up 32% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 22: Segment-wise gross direct premium growth yoy for HDFC ERGO, March fiscal year-end, February
2024 (Rs mn)
Gross direct
premium (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) % of total
Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24
Fire 1,151 17,120 18 9 7 10
Marine 72 1,731 (42) (16) — 1
Marine hull 5 148 (68) (21) — —
Marine cargo 67 1,583 (39) (16) — 1
Motor 5,183 48,121 47 14 34 29
Engineering 159 2,444 12 32 1 1
Health 5,028 50,151 18 17 33 30
Retail health 3,687 33,408 18 15 24 20
Group health 1,325 16,441 18 23 9 10
Government schemes — — NM NM — —
Overseas medical 16 302 (19) 7 — —
Aviation 1 178 (81) (4) — —
Liability 320 6,016 19 18 2 4
PA 395 5,145 22 (7) 3 3
Other 3,154 33,682 (38) 8 20 20
Crop insurance 2,625 29,742 (48) 3 17 18
Credit insurance 38 931 28 18 — 1
Others 492 3,010 579 129 3 2
Total 15,463 164,589 5 12 100 100
Total (ex-crop) 12,838 134,847 32 15

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
24

ICICI Lombard’s premium (ex-crop) up 39% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 23: Segment-wise gross direct premium growth yoy for ICICI Lombard, March fiscal year-end,
February 2024 (Rs mn)
Gross direct
premium (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) % of total
Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24
Fire 1,954 32,644 2 10 11 14
Marine 546 7,291 11 3 3 3
Marine hull 50 652 (44) (11) — —
Marine cargo 496 6,640 24 5 3 3
Motor 8,916 86,133 76 12 48 38
Motor OD 4,384 42,543 20 13 24 19
Motor TP 4,532 43,589 220 10 24 19
Engineering 636 8,378 7 37 3 4
Health 4,856 59,453 30 28 26 26
Retail health 1,163 10,841 26 21 6 5
Group health 3,573 46,447 32 31 19 20
Government schemes — — NM NM — —
Overseas medical 120 2,165 8 8 1 1
Aviation 178 1,925 129 14 1 1
Liability 443 8,511 10 11 2 4
PA 473 6,692 (13) 23 3 3
Other 542 18,334 (1) 35 3 8
Crop insurance 1 11,670 (99) 33 0 5
Credit insurance 53 612 (10) 4 0 —
Others 489 6,053 8 44 3 3
Total 18,542 229,360 39 18 100 100
Total (ex-crop) 18,541 217,690 39 17

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

SBI General’s premium (ex-crop) down 10% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 24: Segment-wise gross direct premium growth yoy for SBI General, March fiscal year-end, February
2024 (Rs mn)
Gross direct
premium (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) % of total
Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24
Fire 1,535 16,593 17 13 13 15
Marine 74 764 27 (2) 1 1
Marine hull — — NM NM — —
Marine cargo 74 764 27 (2) 1 1
Motor 4,107 30,428 (24) 21 34 27
Engineering 105 1,211 144 80 1 1
Health 2,722 25,821 (13) 27 23 23
Retail health 489 5,124 (18) 2 4 5
Group health 2,232 20,687 (12) 35 19 18
Government schemes — — NM NM — —
Overseas medical 1 10 33 (57) — —
Aviation — 1— NM 189— — —
Liability 54 917 18 63 0 1
PA 981 10,149 21 16 8 9
Other 2,483 27,409 (21) 9 21 24
Crop insurance 2,255 25,613 (25) 8 19 23
Credit insurance 32 372 13 34 — —
Others 196 1,424 90 13 2 1
Total 12,061 113,291 (14) 18 100 100
Total (ex-crop) 9,806 87,678 (10) 21

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
25

Tata AIG’s premium (ex-crop) up 4% yoy in February 2024


Exhibit 25: Segment-wise gross direct premium growth yoy for Tata AIG, March fiscal year-end, February
2024 (Rs mn)
Gross direct
premium (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) % of total
Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24 Feb-24 11MFY24
Fire 1,218 19,746 14 11 10 14
Marine 437 6,242 (38) (1) 4 5
Marine hull 1 327 (0) 28 — —
Marine cargo 436 5,915 (38) (3) 4 4
Motor 6,431 66,941 (1) 14 54 49
Engineering 224 2,548 21 63 2 2
Health 2,371 26,016 18 26 20 19
Retail health 830 7,441 32 30 7 5
Group health 1,313 15,382 8 23 11 11
Government schemes — — NM NM — —
Overseas medical 227 3,194 39 34 2 2
Aviation 27 1,380 (28) 103 — 1
Liability 368 5,579 51 14 3 4
PA 206 1,884 10 (55) 2 1
Other 522 6,531 69 97 4 5
Crop insurance 54 2,226 NM (741,933) — 2
Credit insurance 50 814 (21) (7) — 1
Others 419 3,492 70 44 4 3
Total 11,802 136,867 5 16 100 100
Total (ex-crop) 11,749 134,641 4 14

Source: IRDA, GI Council, Kotak Institutional Equities

Insurance
India Research
26

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 19-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Automobiles & Components
Apollo Tyres SELL 455 375 (18) 289 3.5 638 29 27 28 16 17 16 2.0 1.8 1.7 7 7 7 14 12 11 1.1 1.3 1.5 17 7
Ashok Leyland REDUCE 162 170 5 475 5.7 2,936 9 10 9 18 17 17 4.6 3.9 3.5 10 10 10 28 25 21 2.3 2.4 2.3 36 18
Bajaj Auto SELL 8,640 5,000 (42) 2,447 29 283 261 272 297 33 32 29 9.1 8.6 8.1 26 24 22 28 28 29 2.4 2.5 2.8 51 23
Balkrishna Industries SELL 2,285 1,950 (15) 442 5.3 193 66 76 89 34 30 26 5.2 4.6 4.1 20 17 15 16 16 17 0.8 0.8 0.9 10 5
Bharat Forge SELL 1,113 850 (24) 518 6.2 466 22 33 39 51 34 28 7.0 6.0 5.1 22 18 16 14 19 20 0.5 0.6 0.7 17 8
CEAT SELL 2,551 1,670 (35) 103 1.2 40 173 158 139 15 16 18 2.6 2.3 2.1 7 7 8 19 15 12 1.7 1.5 1.3 8 3
CIE Automotive ADD 437 465 7 166 2.0 378 21 24 27 21 18 16 2.8 2.5 2.2 11 11 9 14 14 15 1.1 1.4 1.6 4 3
Eicher Motors SELL 3,717 3,100 (17) 1,018 12.3 272 147 154 166 25 24 22 6.6 5.7 5.0 21 18 17 28 25 24 1.2 1.3 1.6 28 14
Endurance Technologies SELL 1,781 1,500 (16) 251 3.0 141 45 56 66 39 32 27 5.1 4.5 4.0 19 16 14 13 14 15 0.5 0.7 0.8 5 3
Escorts Kubota SELL 2,714 2,150 (21) 300 3.6 111 94 104 112 29 26 24 3.2 2.9 2.6 25 22 20 11 11 11 0.5 0.6 0.6 11 5
Exide Industries SELL 296 250 (16) 252 3.0 850 12 14 16 24 21 19 2.1 1.9 1.8 13 11 10 9 10 10 0.8 0.8 0.8 13 6
Hero Motocorp SELL 4,542 3,675 (19) 908 10.9 200 213 233 249 21 19 18 5.1 4.7 4.4 15 13 12 25 25 25 3.3 3.6 3.8 39 17
Mahindra & Mahindra ADD 1,844 1,800 (2) 2,293 27.6 1,159 89 85 93 21 22 20 4.1 3.5 3.1 17 16 14 22 17 17 0.7 0.7 0.8 66 39
Maruti Suzuki SELL 11,597 8,900 (23) 3,646 43.9 314 405 399 428 29 29 27 5.4 4.8 4.4 20 19 17 20 17 17 1.4 1.4 1.5 75 45
MRF SELL 132,680 90,000 (32) 563 6.8 4 5,234 4,846 5,004 25 27 27 3.4 3.0 2.7 12 12 12 14 12 11 0.3 0.3 0.3 22 6
Samvardhana Motherson ADD 111 125 12 753 9.1 6,776 3 5 6 32 21 18 3.1 2.8 2.5 10 8 8 10 14 14 0.6 0.7 0.8 38 19
Schaeffler India ADD 2,912 3,000 3 455 5.5 156 58 65 75 50 45 39 9.5 8.5 7.6 33 29 25 20 20 21 0.1 0.1 0.0 3 2
SKF ADD 4,285 4,400 3 212 2.6 49 107 132 150 40 32 29 7.9 6.8 5.9 29 23 20 20 21 21 0.7 0.9 1.0 2 1
Sona BLW Precision REDUCE 654 550 (16) 383 4.6 583 9 12 14 73 55 46 14.1 11.8 9.9 42 33 28 21 23 24 0.3 0.4 0.5 17 9
Tata Motors ADD 958 950 (1) 3,668 44.2 3,829 64 71 78 15 14 12 5.4 3.8 2.9 7 6 5 44 32 27 0.2 0.3 0.3 138 55
Timken ADD 2,814 2,800 (0) 212 2.5 75 47 60 76 59 47 37 8.9 7.5 6.3 40 31 24 16 18 19 0.1 0.1 0.0 3 2
TVS Motor SELL 2,042 1,180 (42) 970 11.7 475 44 47 53 46 44 38 12.9 10.7 9.0 29 25 22 31 27 25 0.5 0.6 0.6 24 12
Uno Minda ADD 632 660 4 362 4.4 571 15 17 19 43 38 33 7.4 6.3 5.3 24 21 18 17 17 16 0.3 0.4 0.5 5 3
Varroc Engineering ADD 487 500 3 74 0.9 153 37 26 33 13 19 15 4.0 3.3 2.7 11 9 7 30 17 18 — — — 3 1
Automobiles & Components Cautious 20,891 251.6 24.4 23.2 21.2 5.2 4.5 3.9 13.3 12.1 10.9 21 19.4 18.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 641 303
Banks
AU Small Finance Bank ADD 560 600 7 375 4.5 667 23 33 43 24 17 13 3.1 2.7 2.3 — — — 13 17 18 — — — 27 11
Axis Bank BUY 1,051 1,225 17 3,243 39.0 3,077 78 82 94 14 13 11 2.3 2.0 1.7 — — — 18 16 16 1.1 1.2 1.3 129 70
Bandhan Bank BUY 180 270 50 291 3.5 1,611 21 25 29 9 7 6 1.4 1.2 1.0 — — — 16 17 17 1.7 2.1 2.4 37 16
Bank of Baroda ADD 249 280 12 1,288 15.5 5,178 33 30 31 7 8 8 1.3 1.1 1.0 — — — 16 13 12 2.7 2.4 2.5 66 24
Canara Bank REDUCE 548 530 (3) 995 12.0 1,814 81 78 86 7 7 6 1.4 1.2 1.0 — — — 18 16 15 3.0 2.9 3.2 60 21
City Union Bank ADD 128 155 22 94 1.1 740 13 14 16 10 9 8 1.3 1.1 1.0 — — — 13 12 12 2.1 2.2 2.5 8 4
DCB Bank BUY 119 160 34 37 0.4 312 18 20 25 7 6 5 0.8 0.7 0.7 — — — 12 12 13 1.6 2.0 3.0 7 3
Equitas Small Finance Bank ADD 92 115 24 105 1.3 1,131 8 9 11 12 10 8 1.9 1.6 1.4 — — — 15 16 18 — — — 5 3
Federal Bank BUY 148 185 25 359 4.3 2,419 15 15 18 10 10 8 1.3 1.2 1.1 — — — 14 12 13 2.0 2.1 2.4 30 13
HDFC Bank BUY 1,449 1,750 21 11,010 132.6 7,580 84 93 106 17 16 14 2.6 2.3 2.1 — — — 18 16 16 1.3 1.4 1.6 443 274
ICICI Bank BUY 1,084 1,220 13 7,611 91.6 6,984 57 56 60 19 20 18 3.4 3.0 2.7 — — — 18 16 15 1.0 1.0 1.1 211 113
IndusInd Bank BUY 1,434 1,800 26 1,116 13.4 776 109 124 142 13 12 10 1.8 1.6 1.5 — — — 15 15 15 1.1 1.3 1.5 62 31
Karur Vysya Bank BUY 175 195 12 140 1.7 802 18 20 22 10 9 8 1.5 1.3 1.2 — — — 16 16 16 2.7 2.9 3.3 7 3
Punjab National Bank SELL 117 105 (10) 1,283 15.5 11,011 7 12 13 16 10 9 1.4 1.2 1.1 — — — 8 12 12 1.7 2.9 3.2 101 28
SBI Cards and Payment Services BUY 699 900 29 664 8.0 946 25 30 44 28 23 16 5.6 4.6 3.6 — — — 22 21 26 0.4 0.5 0.6 16 9
State Bank of India BUY 724 850 17 6,460 77.8 8,925 61 63 69 12 12 10 1.9 1.7 1.5 — — — 15 14 14 1.6 1.6 1.6 174 71
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank ADD 45 65 43 89 1.1 1,929 6 7 7 7 7 6 1.5 1.3 1.1 — — — 24 20 18 2.8 2.9 3.1 7 3
Union Bank ADD 149 155 4 1,139 13.7 7,634 19 23 24 8 7 6 1.3 1.1 1.0 — — — 17 17 15 3.1 3.7 3.9 49 21
Utkarsh Small Finance Bank BUY 49 65 34 53 0.6 1,098 4 5 6 11 9 8 1.8 1.5 1.3 — — — 19 17 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 3
YES Bank SELL 23 19 (17) 660 7.9 31,315 0 1 1 74 26 16 1.7 1.6 1.4 — — — 2 6 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 146 42
Banks Attractive 37,011 445.7 14.2 13.1 11.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 14.5 13.9 13.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1,589 763

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research
27

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 19-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Building Products
Astral SELL 1,952 1,600 (18) 524 6.3 269 21 28 33 93 69 59 16.4 13.7 11.4 55 43 37 19.2 21 21 0.2 0.2 0.3 17 8
Building Products Cautious 524 6.3 92.6 69.4 58.5 16.4 13.6 11.4 54.6 43.0 37.0 17.7 19.7 19.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 17 8
Capital goods
ABB REDUCE 5,629 4,600 (18) 1,193 14.4 212 59 72 84 96 78 67 20.1 16.2 13.3 77 62 53 23 23 22 0.0 0.1 0.1 28 12
Bharat Electronics SELL 185 130 (30) 1,355 16.3 7,310 5 5 6 39 35 31 8.8 7.9 7.1 28 25 21 24 24 24 1.2 1.3 1.5 60 30
BHEL SELL 219 70 (68) 762 9.2 3,482 (1) (2) 1 NM NM 165 2.8 2.9 2.9 NM 1,773 50 NM NM 2 0.0 0.1 (0.1) 117 36
Carborundum Universal REDUCE 1,111 1,140 3 211 2.5 190 25 31 39 45 36 28 6.6 5.7 4.9 29 24 18 16 17 19 0.4 0.6 0.7 2 2
CG Power & Industrial SELL 479 360 (25) 732 8.8 1,527 6 7 8 85 67 57 24.7 19.6 15.7 62 49 41 29 29 28 (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 16 10
Cochin Shipyard SELL 881 540 (39) 232 2.8 263 27 24 30 32 37 29 4.7 4.4 4.0 23 24 18 15 12 14 0.8 0.9 0.9 45 13
Cummins India BUY 2,716 2,750 1 753 9.1 277 56 66 77 48 41 35 12.6 11.3 10.0 45 38 32 28 29 30 1.2 1.4 1.6 20 10
Dixon Technologies SELL 6,947 4,600 (34) 416 5.0 59 72 107 137 96 65 51 24.1 17.6 13.0 54 39 30 29 31 30 0.0 0.0 0.0 31 10
G R Infraprojects SELL 1,260 920 (27) 122 1.5 97 65 58 89 19 22 14 2.1 1.9 1.7 13 13 9 11 9 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
IRB Infrastructure SELL 54 60 11 327 3.9 6,039 1 2 2 43 26 22 2.5 2.5 2.4 14 12 11 6 10 11 2.9 3.7 4.3 26 11
Kalpataru Projects ADD 1,007 1,050 4 164 2.0 160 35 66 83 29 15 12 3.1 2.6 2.2 11 8 6 11 18 20 0.3 0.4 0.5 6 2
KEC International REDUCE 662 630 (5) 170 2.0 257 17 34 45 39 20 15 4.1 3.5 2.9 14 10 8 11 19 21 0.3 0.6 0.7 5 2
L&T SELL 3,502 3,100 (11) 4,814 58.0 1,373 95 122 147 37 29 24 6.8 6.0 5.2 25 20 17 18 22 23 0.8 1.0 1.2 103 62
Siemens SELL 4,640 3,950 (15) 1,652 19.9 356 65 79 94 71 59 49 11.2 9.8 8.5 56 46 38 17 18 19 0.4 0.4 0.5 17 8
Thermax ADD 3,594 3,500 (3) 428 5.2 113 53 60 75 68 60 48 9.3 8.3 7.3 54 44 33 15 15 16 0.3 0.4 0.4 5 2
Capital goods Cautious 13,329 160.5 49.7 39.9 32.0 7.2 6.5 5.8 31.1 25.3 20.9 14.5 16.3 18.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 482 210
Commercial & Professional Services
SIS REDUCE 434 500 15 63 0.8 147 20 26 31 21 17 14 2.4 2.1 1.8 12 10 8 12 13 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0
TeamLease Services REDUCE 2,775 2,500 (10) 47 0.6 17 69 93 119 40 30 23 5.6 4.7 3.9 34 25 20 14.2 17.3 18.5 — — — 2 1
Commercial & Professional Services Neutral 109 1.3 26.3 20.3 16.5 3.2 2.7 2.3 15.6 12.7 10.5 12.0 13.5 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Commodity Chemicals
Asian Paints REDUCE 2,815 3,100 10 2,700 32.5 959 58 60 62 48 47 45 14.4 12.6 11.3 34 32 31 32 29 26 1.1 1.2 1.3 46 28
Berger Paints SELL 550 485 (12) 641 7.7 1166 10 11 12 53 50 47 12.4 10.9 9.6 33 32 30 25 23 21 0.8 0.9 0.8 8 4
Indigo Paints REDUCE 1,337 1,400 5 64 0.8 48 33 37 40 41 36 34 7.1 6.2 5.5 25 22 20 19 18 17 0.5 0.7 1.0 2 1
Kansai Nerolac REDUCE 270 290 8 218 2.6 808 9 9 9 31 30 29 4.3 4.0 3.8 20 19 18 14 14 14 1.2 1.7 1.7 2 1
Tata Chemicals SELL 1,121 780 (30) 286 3.4 255 45 32 36 25 35 31 1.4 1.4 1.3 9 11 10 6 4 4 1.5 1.1 1.2 40 14
Commodity Chemicals Cautious 3,908 47.1 44.4 44.6 42.5 7.8 7.1 6.6 27.3 27.1 25.7 17.5 16.0 15.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 97 47
Construction Materials
ACC REDUCE 2,403 2,160 (10) 451 5.4 188 92 112 131 26 21 18 2.9 2.6 2.4 14 11 9 12 13 14 0.8 0.9 1.1 15 6
Ambuja Cements SELL 580 395 (32) 1,152 13.9 2,463 13 17 19 44 33 30 2.9 2.7 2.5 15 12 10 8 8 9 0.3 0.5 0.5 28 12
Dalmia Bharat ADD 1,884 2,100 11 353 4.3 187 40 65 88 47 29 21 2.2 2.0 1.9 13 11 9 5 7 9 0.3 0.5 0.7 10 6
Grasim Industries REDUCE 2,172 2,135 - 1,451 17.5 658 115 127 134 19 17 16 1.7 1.5 1.4 10 8 7 9 9 9 0.5 0.6 0.7 23 12
J K Cement SELL 4,000 2,800 (30) 309 3.7 77 101 131 152 39 31 26 5.8 4.9 4.2 16 14 13 16 17 17 0.4 0.4 0.4 8 4
Nuvoco Vistas Corp ADD 294 340 16 105 1.3 357 3 10 14 98 31 21 1.2 1.1 1.1 9 8 7 1 4 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
Orient Cement REDUCE 197 210 7 40 0.5 205 8 12 14 24 17 14 2.3 2.1 1.9 10 8 6 10 13 14 1.0 1.0 1.0 3 2
Shree Cement SELL 25,050 19,000 (24) 904 10.9 36 647 739 804 39 34 31 4.5 4.0 3.6 20 17 15 12 13 12 0.5 0.5 0.6 11 5
The Ramco Cements SELL 797 630 (21) 188 2.3 236 16 25 34 49 32 24 2.6 2.4 2.2 15 13 11 5 8 10 0.2 0.3 0.4 6 3
UltraTech Cement SELL 9,453 7,000 (26) 2,729 32.9 289 241 326 361 39 29 26 4.6 4.0 3.6 22 17 15 12 15 15 0.4 0.5 0.3 38 23
Construction Materials Cautious 7,684 92.5 31.9 25.4 22.7 2.8 2.6 2.4 14.3 12.0 10.4 8.9 10.2 10.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 144 73

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research
28

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 19-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail REDUCE 207 220 6 196 2.4 998 (7) (5) (3) NM NM NM 5.1 4.3 4.7 15 11 9 NM NM NM — — — 16 6
Campus Activewear ADD 224 275 23 68 0.8 304 3 4 6 88 53 40 10.8 9.0 7.6 34 25 20 13 19 20 — — 0.6 5 3
Cello World ADD 789 950 20 167 2.0 212 16 18 21 51 43 37 14.6 11.7 9.6 33 27 23 44 30 29 — 1— 0.8 5 3
Crompton Greaves Consumer ADD 267 320 20 172 2.1 636 7 9 11 39 30 25 5.7 5.0 4.3 24 20 17 15 18 19 0.9 0.9 0.9 10 6
Eureka Forbes BUY 450 680 51 87 1.0 208 5 7 10 93 67 44 2.2 2.2 2.1 46 35 24 2 3 5 — — — 3 3
Havells India SELL 1,457 1,130 (22) 913 11.0 628 19 24 29 77 61 51 12.6 11.4 10.2 52 41 34 17 20 21 0.5 0.7 0.8 17 9
Page Industries SELL 34,033 33,000 (3) 380 4.6 11 552 661 768 62 51 44 22.7 18.8 15.8 40 33 29 40 40 39 0.9 1.1 1.3 12 6
Polycab SELL 4,680 4,060 (13) 703 8.5 150 115 125 144 41 37 33 8.9 7.6 6.5 28 25 22 24 22 22 0.6 0.6 0.7 69 28
TCNS Clothing Co. REDUCE 347 420 21 22 0.3 69 (30) (5) 2 NM NM 203 5.4 5.3 4.8 (27) 19 13.1 NM NM 2 — — — 1 0
Vedant Fashions REDUCE 908 1,150 27 220 2.7 248 17 21 25 53 43 36 13.6 11.3 9.2 32 26 22 28 28 28 — — — 4 3
Voltas SELL 1,046 930 (11) 346 4.2 331 12 24 30 91 43 35 6.1 5.5 5.0 67 32 28 7 13 15 0.4 0.7 0.9 25 12
Whirlpool SELL 1,272 1,090 (14) 161 1.9 127 18 25 36 72 51 35 4.4 4.1 3.7 36 26 19 6 8 11 0.3 0.3 0.4 11 6
Consumer Durables & Apparel Cautious 3,437 41.4 75.7 53.8 42.6 8.3 7.3 6.6 35.3 26.8 22.2 11.0 13.6 15.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 179 85
Consumer Staples
Britannia Industries ADD 4,817 5,225 8 1,160 14.0 241 89 101 113 54 48 43 29.4 26.1 23.2 37 33 30 57 58 57 1.7 1.9 2.1 20 11
Colgate-Palmolive (India) REDUCE 2,612 2,425 (7) 711 8.6 272 49 54 59 54 49 44 38.8 36.7 34.6 37 34 31 75 77 80 1.8 1.9 2.1 9 5
Dabur India ADD 518 600 16 919 11.1 1,772 11 12 14 47 42 37 9.2 8.3 7.5 37 33 29 21 21 21 1.1 1.2 1.3 14 9
Godrej Consumer Products BUY 1,204 1,375 14 1,232 14.8 1,023 19 24 27 63 51 44 8.1 7.4 6.8 41 35 31 13 15 16 0.6 0.9 1.1 20 13
Hindustan Unilever ADD 2,267 2,725 20 5,326 64.1 2,350 43 49 55 52 47 42 10.4 10.0 9.6 37 32 29 20 22 24 1.7 1.9 2.2 51 34
ITC ADD 410 460 12 5,112 61.6 12,428 16 18 19 25 23 22 7.2 6.9 6.6 20 18 16 28 29 31 3.4 3.7 4.0 127 77
Jyothy Labs SELL 405 420 4 149 1.8 367 10 11 13 39 35 32 8.4 7.5 6.7 30 27 24 23 22 22 1.1 1.4 1.5 7 3
Marico REDUCE 490 545 11 634 7.6 1,290 12 12 14 42 39 36 14.0 12.0 10.3 31 28 25 36 33 31 1.2 1.3 1.5 10 6
Nestle India ADD 2,496 2,550 2 2,407 29.0 964 31 36 41 80 70 61 77.8 53.2 39.9 54 47 41 108 91 74 0.7 0.8 1.0 30 18
Sula Vineyards ADD 524 640 22 44 0.5 84 11 13 15 48 41 35 7.3 6.5 5.7 25 23 20 16 17 17 0.5 0.6 0.9 13 6
Tata Consumer Products NR 1,146 - - 1,092 13.2 929 15 18 20 78 65 56 6.4 6.1 5.8 48 41 36 8 10 11 0.8 0.9 1.0 25 13
United Breweries ADD 1,687 1,875 11 446 5.4 264 18 30 38 94 57 45 10.5 9.6 8.8 56 36 29 12 18 20 0.8 1.3 1.7 5 2
United Spirits ADD 1,087 1,160 7 791 9.5 727 16 19 22 69 56 50 11.1 10.2 9.3 45 38 33 17 19 19 0.2 0.9 1.1 12 7
Varun Beverages ADD 1,399 1,400 0 1,818 21.9 1,299 16 21 26 88 68 53 26.2 19.6 14.8 52 39 31 34 33 32 0.2 0.2 0.2 40 24
Consumer Staples Attractive 21,840 263.0 45.5 40.6 36.3 11.0 10.3 9.5 33.0 28.9 25.7 24 25 26 1.6 1.8 2.1 385 228
Diversified Financials
360 One BUY 693 750 8 248 3.0 355 21 24 30 33 29 23 7.2 6.8 6.3 — — — 23 24 28 2.2 2.6 3.2 4 2
Aavas Financiers BUY 1,371 2,025 48 109 1.3 79 59 73 89 23 19 15 2.9 2.5 2.2 — — — 13 14 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 5
ABSL AMC REDUCE 461 500 8 133 1.6 288 25 27 28 18 17 16 4.7 4.3 3.9 — — — NM NM NM 3.3 3.5 3.7 1 1
Aptus Value Housing Finance ADD 311 370 19 155 1.9 498 12 14 17 26 22 18 4.1 3.5 2.9 — — — 17 17 17 1.3 0.0 0.0 4 2
Bajaj Finance ADD 6,596 7,800 18 4,083 49.2 617 232 301 374 28 22 18 5.4 4.4 3.6 — — — 22 22 23 0.4 0.6 0.7 111 60
Bajaj Finserv ADD 1,582 1,800 14 2,523 30.4 1,593 68 84 101 23 19 16 4.6 4.0 3.4 — — — 22 23 23 0.1 0.1 0.1 26 12
Cholamandalam BUY 1,047 1,350 29 879 10.6 839 39 49 59 27 21 18 4.8 4.0 3.2 — — — 19 19 19 0.2 0.3 0.4 26 15
Computer Age Management Services ADD 2,825 3,000 6 139 1.7 49 70 82 97 41 35 29 15.2 13.1 11.2 — — — 40 41 41 1.6 1.9 2.2 12 7
CRISIL SELL 4,983 3,700 (26) 364 4.4 73 90 99 111 55 50 45 18.2 16.2 14.5 — — — 35 34 34 1.2 1.3 1.4 3 1
Five Star Business Finance ADD 648 875 35 189 2.3 291 28 35 42 23 19 15 3.7 3.1 2.5 — — — 17 18 18 — — — 4 2
HDFC AMC ADD 3,666 3,650 (0) 783 9.4 214 87 101 113 42 36 32 11.7 10.9 10.0 — — — 29 31 32 1.8 2.1 2.3 22 9
Home First Finance BUY 847 1,200 42 75 0.9 88 34 40 50 25 21 17 3.6 3.1 2.7 — — — 15 16 17 — — 0.6 2 1
ICRA REDUCE 5,411 5,150 (5) 52 0.6 10 151 175 199 36 31 27 4.9 4.6 4.3 — — — 14 15 16 — — 0 0 0
Kfin Technologies ADD 585 580 (1) 100 1.2 169 14 16 19 42 36 31 9.3 7.6 6.6 — — — 17 18 19 — 0.8 1 6 3
L&T Finance Holdings SELL 147 120 (18) 366 4.4 2,480 10 11 13 15 13 11 1.6 1.5 1.4 — — — 11 12 13 3.9 3.8 4.5 12 5
LIC Housing Finance BUY 571 725 27 314 3.8 550 86 84 82 7 7 7 1.2 1.1 1.0 — — — 16 14 12 2.4 2.4 2.3 18 8
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial ADD 259 310 20 320 3.8 1,234 15 19 24 18 13 11 1.8 1.7 1.5 — — — 10 12 14 1.1 1.5 1.9 14 7
Muthoot Finance ADD 1,325 1,500 13 532 6.4 401 99 116 135 13 11 10 2.2 1.9 1.6 — — — 18 18 18 1.5 1.8 2.0 10 4
Nippon AMC ADD 435 550 27 274 3.3 623 16 18 19 27 25 22 7.5 7.3 7.5 — — — 28 30 33 3.3 3.6 4.0 8 4
SBFC REDUCE 79 80 2 84 1.0 1,091 2 3 4 37 27 21 3.4 3.1 2.7 — — — 10 11 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 2
Shriram Finance BUY 2,287 2,850 25 859 10.3 374 190 237 281 12 10 8 1.8 1.5 1.3 — — — 15 17 17 1.3 1.6 1.9 40 24
UTI AMC REDUCE 809 900 11 103 1.2 127 55 42 45 15 19 18 2.6 2.5 2.4 — — — 18 13 14 5.4 4.2 4.5 3 1
Diversified Financials Attractive 12,741 153.4 22.1 18.3 15.4 3.7 3.2 2.8 16.9 17.7 18.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 337 177

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research
29

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks


Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 19-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Electric Utilities
CESC SELL 114 115 1 151 1.8 1,326 10 12 13 11 9 9 1.1 1.1 1.0 6 6 5 11 12 12 3.9 3.7 4.1 14 6
JSW Energy SELL 483 235 (51) 794 9.6 1,640 10 15 19 50 32 25 4.0 3.6 3.2 19 14 12 8 12 13 0.4 0.4 0.4 24 10
NHPC SELL 82 60 (27) 828 10.0 10,045 4 5 6 20 17 14 2.1 2.0 1.9 23 11 8 11 13 14 2.6 3.3 3.8 153 51
NTPC SELL 313 270 (14) 3,039 36.6 9,895 20 22 24 16.0 14.0 13 1.9 1.8 1.6 11 9 8 12 13 13 2.3 2.5 2.7 70 38
Power Grid SELL 259 240 (7) 2,409 29.0 9,301 18 18 19 14.4 14.1 13 2.7 2.5 2.3 8 8 8 19 18 18 4.1 4.2 4.5 70 40
Tata Power SELL 383 240 (37) 1,225 14.7 3,196 11 10 13 36 39 29 3.8 3.5 3.1 15 14 13 11 9 11 — — — 95 32
Electric Utilities Attractive 8,446 101.7 18.2 16.4 14.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 10.9 9.7 8.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 2.4 2.5 2.8 426 176
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bayer Cropscience SELL 4,990 5,190 4 224 2.7 45 181 204 226 28 24 22 7.9 7.5 7.2 19 17 15 29 32 33 3.1 3.5 3.8 2 1
Godrej Agrovet ADD 502 600 20 96 1.2 192 18 23 30 29 22 17 3.3 3.0 2.6 17 13 10 12 14 17 1.5 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.7
Rallis India SELL 251 220 (12) 49 0.6 195 8 11 12 30 24 20 2.7 2.5 2.3 16 13 11 9 11 12 1.4 1.6 1.8 6 2
UPL SELL 461 390 (15) 346 4.2 751 (18) 8 28 NM 55 17 1.4 1.4 1.3 13 8 6 NM 2 8 1.1 1.1 1.1 22 10
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Cautious 716 8.6 NM 32.7 18.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 14.6 9.6 7.7 NM 6.5 10.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 31 14
Gas Utilities
GAIL (India) SELL 173 150 (13) 1,137 13.7 6,575 14 14 15 12 12 12 1.9 1.8 1.7 10 9 9 16 15 14 4.3 4.6 4.9 58 24
GSPL BUY 339 465 37 191 2.3 564 23 18 19 15 19 17 1.9 1.8 1.7 8 9 9 13 10 10 2.4 2.6 2.8 8 4
Indraprastha Gas SELL 406 375 (8) 284 3.4 700 29 28 29 14 15 14 3.5 3.1 2.8 10 10 10 27 22 21 2.5 2.6 2.7 13 6
Mahanagar Gas SELL 1,262 1,050 (17) 125 1.5 99 131 93 90 10 14 14 2.5 2.2 2.0 6 8 8 28 17 15 3.4 2.6 2.5 12 5
Petronet LNG SELL 262 190 (27) 392 4.7 1,500 24 21 22 11 12 12 2.2 1.9 1.7 6 7 8 22 17 15 3.8 1.9 1.0 23 11
Gas Utilities Cautious 2,130 25.6 12.0 12.8 12.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 8.7 8.9 8.8 17.5 15.1 14.2 3.8 3.6 3.6 115 51
Health Care Services
Apollo Hospitals ADD 6,113 6,860 12 879 10.6 144 64 95 133 96 64 46 12.5 10.7 8.9 37 29 22 14 18 21 0.1 0.2 0.3 34 17
Aster DM Healthcare ADD 428 480 12 214 2.6 498 7 13 17 58 32 25 4.5 4.1 3.6 12 10 8 8 13 15 — — — 3 2
Dr Lal Pathlabs SELL 2,011 1,975 (2) 168 2.0 83 43 50 57 47 40 35 9.1 8.3 7.4 26 23 19 20 22 22 1.1 1.3 1.5 7 3
Global Health REDUCE 1,210 1,160 (4) 325 3.9 268 18 22 28 67 55 43 11.4 9.7 8.2 37 31 25 18 19 20 0.2 0.3 0.3 9 5
KIMS ADD 1,986 2,275 15 159 1.9 80 41 54 68 48 37 29 7.9 6.5 5.3 26 20 16 18 19 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Max Healthcare REDUCE 735 705 (4) 714 8.6 971 13 16 20 55 47 37 7.6 6.6 5.7 38 31 24 15 15 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 30 20
Metropolis Healthcare REDUCE 1,582 1,500 (5) 81 1.0 51 27 40 49 59 39 32 7.5 6.7 5.9 28 21 18 13 18 19 0.5 0.8 0.9 8 3
Narayana Hrudayalaya ADD 1,223 1,365 12 250 3.0 204 41 43 51 30 28 24 8.4 6.5 5.1 21 18 15 33 26 24 — — — 6 4
Rainbow Children's Medicare ADD 1,178 1,215 3 120 1.4 102 21 26 30 56 45 39 9.7 8.2 7.0 28 23 20 19 20 19 0.3 0.4 0.5 4 2
Health Care Services Cautious 2,909 35.0 58.8 45.8 36.0 8.8 7.5 6.4 28.8 23.3 18.9 15.0 16.5 17.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 106 58
Hotels & Restaurants
Chalet Hotels ADD 744 790 6 153 1.8 205 14 19 30 53 39 25 8.3 6.8 5.4 29 21 16 17 19 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Devyani International ADD 157 190 21 189 2.3 1,204 1 1 2 134 111 81 17.0 15.8 14.4 29 20 17 14 15 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 4
Indian Hotels ADD 549 535 (3) 782 9.4 1,420 10 14 17 57 38 32 8.4 6.9 5.7 33 23 19 16 20 20 0.1 0.1 0.1 24 11
Jubilant Foodworks REDUCE 446 485 9 294 3.5 660 4 6 8 126 77 57 13.4 11.8 10.1 27 21 18 11 16 19 0.3 0.3 0.4 18 10
Lemon Tree Hotels REDUCE 130 122 (6) 103 1.2 792 2 5 6 53 27 22 11.1 8.9 7.2 22 13 11 22 37 36 1.0 1.3 1.5 12 5
Restaurant Brands Asia REDUCE 104 110 5 52 0.6 495 (1) (1) (0) NM NM NM 2.8 2.9 2.9 21 16 13 NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 3
Samhi Hotels BUY 205 250 22 45 0.5 218 (8) 5 9 NM 43 23 4.5 4.0 3.5 23 15 12 NM 10 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 4
Sapphire Foods BUY 1,519 1,640 8 97 1.2 64 7 7 11 226 213 139 7.4 7.2 6.8 21 18 15 3 3 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 2
Westlife Foodworld REDUCE 731 760 4 114 1.4 156 5 6 9 144 124 81 18.1 16.2 14.0 30 27 21 13 14 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 1,827 22.0 86.6 51.0 39.1 9.1 7.9 6.7 28.4 20.6 16.9 10.5 15.4 17.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 79 38

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research
30

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 19-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance BUY 633 800 26 1,360 16.4 2,020 8 9 10 83 70 61 9.9 9.3 8.7 — — — 12 14 15 0.3 0.4 0.4 32 18
ICICI Lombard REDUCE 1,657 1,400 (16) 816 9.8 491 39 48 57 42 34 29 6.9 6.0 5.2 — — — 17 19 19 0.6 0.7 0.9 18 10
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 550 625 14 792 9.5 1,439 6 7 8 92 81 68 7.3 6.8 6.3 — — — 8 9 10 0.6 0.6 0.6 16 9
LIC BUY 880 1,300 48 5,563 67.0 6,325 55 50 53 16 18 17 7.7 5.8 4.6 — — — 59 37 31 — — — 66 25
Max Financial Services BUY 962 1,200 25 332 4.0 345 2 2 2 580 516 449 — — — — — — 1 1 1 — — — 12 7
PB Fintech ADD 1,099 950 (14) 496 6.0 450 1 7 13 998 165 84 — — — 1 5 9 — — — 29 17
SBI Life Insurance BUY 1,461 1,675 15 1,463 17.6 1,004 19 20 21 78 74 69 11.3 10.0 8.9 — — — 15 14 14 0.2 0.2 0.2 24 13
Star Health and Allied Insurance ADD 542 600 11 317 3.8 582 14 19 23 40 29 23 5.1 4.3 3.6 — — — 14 16 17 — — — 7 5
Insurance Attractive 11,140 134.1 26.5 27.6 25.3 7.9 6.5 5.5 30 24 22 0.1 0.1 0.1 204 104
Internet Software & Services
Cartrade Tech SELL 644 480 (25) 30 0.4 51.5 8 11 12 76 60 53 1.6 1.5 1.5 43 30 24 2.1 2.6 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
FSN E-commerce Ventures ADD 153 165 8 438 5.3 2,875.0 0 1 2 692 180 98 30.8 26.4 20.8 132 72 47 4.5 15.8 24 — — — 17 9
Indiamart SELL 2,597 2,400 (8) 156 1.9 60.7 57 68 81 45 38 32 8.3 6.8 5.6 37 29 24 17.6 19.5 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8 4
Info Edge ADD 5,075 5,800 14 657 7.9 129.0 65 69 83 78 74 61 5.7 5.4 5.1 64 60 48 7.5 7.5 8.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 18 9
Just Dial BUY 780 1,050 35 66 0.8 85.0 40 51 59 19 15 13 1.7 1.5 1.3 11 6 4 9.0 10.2 10.6 — — — 6 2
Zomato BUY 158 190 20 1,393 16.8 9,131 0 2 4 459 80 41 7.1 6.4 5.5 1,630 82 38 1.6 8.4 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 123 62
Internet Software & Services Attractive 2,740 33.0 140 72 45 6.7 6.1 5.4 126 63 38 4.7 8.5 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 173 86
IT Services
Cyient BUY 1,975 2,400 22 219 2.6 111 67 85 98 29 23 20 4.9 4.4 3.9 16 14 12 19 20 21 1.8 2.4 2.7 9 6
HCL Technologies ADD 1,599 1,750 9 4,340 52.3 2,714 58 65 73 28 25 22 6.4 6.1 5.7 17 15 14 24 25 27 3.1 3.4 3.6 55 33
Infosys BUY 1,561 1,800 15 6,481 78.0 4,146 59 66 75 26 24 21 8.0 7.4 6.8 17 15 14 31 32 34 2.9 3.2 3.6 125 77
KPIT Technologies SELL 1,358 1,000 (26) 372 4.5 273 21 28 36 63 48 37 16.8 13.2 10.4 37 28 23 30 31 31 0.4 0.6 0.7 23 11
L&T Technology Services SELL 5,191 4,700 (9) 549 6.6 106 123 142 164 42 36 32 9.6 8.4 7.3 27 24 21 24 24 25 0.8 1.0 1.2 12 4
LTIMindtree REDUCE 5,106 5,375 5 1,512 18.2 296 160 182 215 32 28 24 7.8 6.8 5.8 22 19 16 26 26 26 1.4 1.6 1.8 35 19
Mphasis REDUCE 2,388 2,380 (0) 451 5.4 188 82 92 107 29 26 22 5.4 5.1 4.7 18 16 14 19 20 22 2.5 2.7 2.9 19 8
Persistent Systems REDUCE 7,979 7,330 (8) 615 7.4 77 148 187 231 54 43 35 13.3 11.0 9.1 35 28 23 26 28 29 0.7 0.8 1.0 29 12
RateGain ADD 731 900 23 86 1.0 113 13 16 22 58 45 33 5.6 5.2 4.5 40 30 22 13 12 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 2
Tata Elxsi SELL 7,636 5,650 (26) 476 5.7 62 131 155 182 58 49 42 19.4 16.6 14.2 43 36 30 36 36 36 1.0 1.1 1.4 12 6
Tata Technologies SELL 1,042 700 (33) 423 5.1 406 17 21 25 60 50 41 12.6 11.2 9.9 43 35 28 22 24 25 0.8 1.0 1.2 - 9
TCS ADD 3,977 4,115 3 14,390 173.3 3,649 127 141 157 31 28 25 15.1 13.6 12.3 22 20 18 49 51 51 1.4 2.8 3.2 108 63
Tech Mahindra REDUCE 1,252 1,330 6 1,102 13.3 890 29 55 72 43 23 17 4.0 3.9 3.6 21 13 10 9 17 22 2.0 3.1 3.2 35 18
Wipro SELL 495 440 (11) 2,586 31.1 5,276 21 23 25 24 21 20 3.5 3.0 2.8 14 13 11 15 15 15 0.2 0.2 1.8 58 21
IT Services Neutral 33,601 404.6 30.0 26.5 23.4 8.4 7.7 7.0 19.6 17.4 15.4 28.1 28.9 29.7 1.8 2.5 2.9 526 287
Media
PVR INOX ADD 1,277 1,700 33 125 1.5 98 18 41 56 69 31 23 1.5 1.4 1.4 17 12 9 2 5 6 0.1 0.3 0.4 13 6
Sun TV Network BUY 575 725 26 226 2.7 394 49 52 55 12 11 10 2.2 2.0 1.9 8 7 6 20 19 19 4.4 4.8 5.2 5 2
Zee Entertainment Enterprises SELL 141 150 7 135 1.6 960 7 7 9 22 19 15 1.3 1.2 1.2 13 11 9 6 7 8 2.1 2.8 2.8 90 36
Media Attractive 487 5.9 17.7 15.4 13.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 10.7 9.1 7.9 9.4 10.3 11.0 2.7 3.1 3.3 109 45
Metals & Mining
Hindalco Industries ADD 534 535 0 1,199 14.4 2,220 44 44 46 12 12 12 1.1 1.1 1.0 6.1 6.0 5.7 10 9 9 0.8 0.8 0.9 49 24
Hindustan Zinc SELL 293 270 (8) 1,240 14.9 4,225 20 20 21 15 15 14 9.6 9.6 9.6 8.6 8.3 8.0 66 66 68 6.9 6.9 7.1 2 1
Jindal Steel and Power BUY 794 900 13 810 9.8 1,020 49 62 86 16 13 9 1.9 1.6 1.4 8.5 7.3 5.5 12 14 17 0.3 0.8 1.6 20 8
JSW Steel REDUCE 801 860 7 1,959 23.6 2,417 48 66 85 17 12 9 2.6 2.2 1.8 8.8 7.0 5.8 16 19 21 0.9 1.2 1.6 23 10
National Aluminium Co. SELL 137 90 (34) 252 3.0 1,837 8 8 8 17 16 16 1.8 1.7 1.6 9.0 8.6 8.2 11 11 10 2.4 2.4 2.5 67 23
NMDC SELL 200 195 (3) 587 7.1 2,931 22 18 19 9 11 10 2.3 2.1 1.9 5.9 6.9 6.5 26 20 19 5.4 4.6 4.8 57 24
SAIL SELL 123 70 (43) 506 6.1 4,130 4 6 7 28 21 18 0.9 0.9 0.8 9.0 8.4 8.1 3 4 5 1.3 1.7 2.0 80 28
Tata Steel REDUCE 149 140 (6) 1,857 22.4 12,224 4 10 16 39 15 9 1.8 1.7 1.5 10.9 7.9 6.1 5 11 17 0.6 1.6 2.6 83 36
Vedanta SELL 267 255 (4) 991 11.9 3,717 17 20 23 16 13 12 2.4 2.3 2.2 5.1 4.8 4.3 15 18 19 5.6 6.7 7.2 46 21
Metals & Mining Cautious 9,401 113.2 17.0 13.6 10.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 7.7 6.8 5.9 11.7 13.4 15.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 427 174

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research
31

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 19-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
BPCL SELL 558 405 (27) 1,210 14.6 2,129 128 48 50 4 12 11 1.8 1.6 1.5 3.3 7.2 7.0 46 15 14 10.4 4.0 4.1 78 33
Coal India SELL 419 335 (20) 2,582 31.1 6,163 49 35 35 8 12 12 3.6 3.3 3.0 8.5 12.6 12.2 47 29 27 6.0 6.0 6.0 80 33
HPCL SELL 446 300 (33) 632 7.6 1,419 103 59 57 4 7 8 1.7 1.5 1.4 5.0 8.0 8.2 46 22 18 9.3 5.3 5.1 61 22
IOCL SELL 155 110 (29) 2,192 26.4 14,121 30 16 15 5 10 11 1.4 1.3 1.2 3.9 6.1 6.2 29 14 12 9.6 5.1 4.8 78 29
Oil India REDUCE 546 475 (13) 592 7.1 1,084 63 62 66 9 9 8 1.6 1.4 1.3 7.4 6.8 6.2 19 17 16 2.8 3.7 4.2 46 16
ONGC REDUCE 259 250 (4) 3,261 39.3 12,580 41 42 40 6 6 6 1.0 0.9 0.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 17 16 14 4.7 5.2 4.9 69 30
Reliance Industries ADD 2,851 2,900 2 19,287 232.3 6,766 101 128 140 28 22 20 2.5 2.2 2.0 13.7 11.4 9.9 9 11 10 — 0.3 0.3 207 119
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Neutral 29,757 358.3 12.4 14.2 13.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 7.7 8.3 7.7 16.5 13.0 12.1 2.6 2.0 2.0 618 283
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma REDUCE 990 1,000 1 580 7.0 586 56 67 77 18 15 13 2.0 1.8 1.6 10 8 7 12 13 13 1.5 1.8 2.2 37 17
Biocon REDUCE 246 260 6 295 3.6 1,202 2 8 15 105 32 16 1.3 1.3 1.2 15 12 9 1 4 7 1.3 1.1 2.2 26 10
Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 365 410 12 63 0.8 173 10 13 16 35 27 22 7.8 6.4 5.3 25 19 15 24 26 26 0.7 0.9 1.1 2
Cipla ADD 1,436 1,545 8 1,159 14.0 806 52 57 64 28 25 22 4.3 3.8 3.4 17 16 14 16 16 16 0.8 0.9 1.0 28 15
Concord Biotech REDUCE 1,461 1,450 (1) 153 1.8 105 30 37 47 49 39 31 10.0 8.4 7.0 35 28 22 22 23 25 0.5 0.6 0.8 3 1
Divis Laboratories SELL 3,447 3,025 (12) 915 11.0 265 60 79 101 57 43 34 6.8 6.4 5.8 40 30 23 12 15 18 1.1 1.2 1.4 22 11
Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 6,135 5,750 (6) 1,023 12.3 166 338 350 329 18 18 19 3.6 3.1 2.7 12 11 11 22 19 15 0.7 0.7 0.7 29 15
Gland Pharma SELL 1,773 1,400 (21) 292 3.5 164 51 63 70 35 28 25 3.3 3.0 2.7 19 16 14 10 11 11 - - - 7 3
Glenmark Life Sciences NR 729 - (100) 89 1.1 123 45 49 53 16 15 14 3.7 3.3 2.9 11 10 9 24 24 23 3.4 3.4 3.4 2 1
Laurus Labs SELL 387 300 (23) 209 2.5 536 4 9 13 97 45 29 4.9 4.4 3.8 27 19 14 5 10 14 - - - 11 5
Lupin SELL 1,570 1,375 (12) 715 8.6 455 45 51 62 35 31 25 5.0 4.4 3.9 18 16 13 15 15 16 0.5 0.6 0.7 25 13
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,105 2,275 8 843 10.2 401 46 56 69 46 37 31 9.6 8.0 6.7 33 27 22 22 23 24 0.5 0.7 0.8 12 7
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 1,548 1,455 (6) 3,715 44.7 2,399 39 48 56 39 32 28 5.9 5.1 4.5 27 22 19 16 17 17 0.6 0.6 0.7 41 25
Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 2,502 2,325 (7) 847 10.2 338 47 62 77 53 41 32 11.2 9.1 7.4 25 21 18 23 25 25 0.3 0.4 0.5 9 4
Pharmaceuticals Neutral 10,900 131.3 34.2 28.4 24.5 4.7 4.2 3.7 20.4 17.2 14.8 13.8 14.6 15.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 253 128
Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises REDUCE 867 1,025 18 200 2.4 231 13 27 35 69 32 25 5.8 5.0 4.2 24 13 10 9 17 18 0.3 0.3 0.3 6 3
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust ADD 250 290 16 110 1.3 439 0 10 15 1,216 25 17 1.1 1.1 1.2 17 12 11 NM 3 5 7.7 9.3 10.1 1 1
DLF ADD 823 840 2 2,037 24.5 2,475 10 16 23 81 51 36 5.1 4.7 4.2 110 77 44 7 10 12 0.2 0.2 0.2 52 23
Embassy Office Parks REIT ADD 383 385 0 363 4.4 948 10 14 18 40 26 22 1.6 1.6 1.7 17 14 12 4 6 8 5.6 6.7 7.7 20 17
Godrej Properties SELL 2,136 1,525 (29) 594 7.2 278 21 45 51 101 48 42 6.0 5.4 4.7 (260) 144 187 6 12 12 — — — 22 8
Macrotech Developers ADD 1,081 1,080 (0) 1,075 12.9 964 17 48 54 62 23 20 7.3 5.5 4.3 42 17 14 12 28 24 — — — 16 8
Mindspace REIT ADD 348 380 9 206 2.5 593 9 11 13 40 31 26 1.4 1.5 1.5 15 13 12 4 5 6 6.0 6.4 6.9 1 1
Nexus Select Trust ADD 126 145 15 192 2.3 1,515 4 5 6 29 25 22 6.6 8.5 11.7 15 13 12 25 29 45 7.3 7.4 7.9 0 0
Oberoi Realty REDUCE 1,361 1,245 (8) 495 6.0 364 47 54 90 29 25 15 3.6 3.1 2.6 20 16 10 13 13 19 0.1 0.1 0.1 14 7
Phoenix Mills REDUCE 2,634 2,495 (5) 471 5.7 179 62 84 97 43 31 27 5.0 4.3 3.8 23 16 15 12 15 15 0.1 0.2 0.2 19 10
Prestige Estates Projects ADD 993 1,160 17 398 4.8 401 31 11 17 32 88 58 3.6 3.4 3.3 25 18 14 12 4 6 0.2 0.2 0.2 14 9
Signature Global SELL 1,233 1,175 (5) 173 2.1 141 13 38 57 96 32 22 20.9 12.7 8.0 75 26 15 41 49 45 — — — 7 3
Sobha SELL 1,260 1,050 (17) 120 1.4 95 15 50 45 83 25 28 4.6 3.9 3.5 33 14 15 6 17 13 0.3 0.3 0.4 13 5
Sunteck Realty BUY 385 550 43 56 0.7 140 19 22 60 20 17 6 1.8 1.6 1.3 17 14 5 9 10 22 0.3 0.3 0.3 5 3
Real Estate Attractive 6,490 78.2 55.2 34.5 26.5 4.1 3.8 3.4 34.6 22.4 17.2 7.4 11.0 13.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 190 97
Retailing
Avenue Supermarts SELL 4,014 3,650 (9) 2,612 31.5 651 40 51 64 102 79 63 14.0 11.9 10.0 64 50 40 15 16 17 — — — 18 12
Metro Brands REDUCE 1,029 1,125 9 280 3.4 272 12 16 20 84 64 52 15.8 13.4 11.4 39 32 26 20 23 23 — 1— 0.6 3 2
Titan Company ADD 3,583 3,750 5 3,181 38.3 888 41 50 62 87 72 58 33.6 25.5 19.4 60 47 38 34 40 38 0.4 0.4 0.5 41 22
Trent ADD 3,956 3,800 (4) 1,406 16.9 356 30 43 62 132 92 63 38.4 27.2 19.0 73 53 39 34 34 35 — — — 41 21
Retailing Neutral 6,073 90.1 98.4 77.2 60.3 22.3 17.9 14.3 62.0 48.2 38.6 23 23 24 0.2 0.2 0.2 102 57

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research
32

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 19-Mar-24 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E Traded Delivered
Specialty Chemicals
Aarti Industries SELL 636 480 (24) 230 2.8 363 11 15 20 56 42 32 4.4 4.0 3.6 26 21 17 8 10 12 0.3 0.4 0.6 18 7
Atul SELL 5,919 4,050 (32) 174 2.1 29 134 167 203 44 36 29 3.5 3.2 3.0 24 20 17 8 9 11 0.3 0.5 0.7 3 2
Castrol India SELL 196 180 (8) 194 2.3 989 9 10 11 22 20 18 9.2 8.4 7.6 15 13 12 43 45 44 3.8 4.1 4.3 21 8
Clean Science & Technology ADD 1,304 1,540 18 139 1.7 106 22 30 51 58 44 25 11.5 9.4 7.2 42 31 19 22 24 32 0.3 0.4 0.7 3 1
Deepak Nitrite REDUCE 2,116 2,190 4 289 3.5 136 56 65 81 38 33 26 6.1 5.2 4.4 26 24 21 17 17 18 0.4 0.3 0.4 10 4
Navin Fluorine REDUCE 2,997 3,120 4 149 1.8 50 44 72 104 68 42 29 6.2 5.5 4.7 39 24 18 9 14 18 0.4 0.4 0.5 9 5
Pidilite Industries ADD 2,891 3,075 6 1,471 17.7 508 37 44 51 79 65 56 18.0 15.9 14.3 53 45 39 24 26 27 0.6 0.8 1.1 20 12
PI Industries ADD 3,703 3,830 3 562 6.8 152 108 114 128 34 33 29 6.5 5.5 4.8 27 24 21 21 18 18 0.3 0.4 0.5 16 10
SRF BUY 2,433 2,660 9 721 8.7 296 45 64 95 54 38 26 6.4 5.6 4.7 28 21 15 12 16 20 0.5 0.6 — 14 8
Vinati Organics SELL 1,630 1,100 (33) 168 2.0 104 29 38 48 56 43 34 6.4 5.7 5.0 37 29 23 13 14 16 0.3 0.4 0.4 1 1
Specialty Chemicals Neutral 4,096 49.3 51.0 41.5 33.0 7.9 7.0 6.1 32.6 26.6 21.6 15.6 16.9 18.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 116 57
Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel ADD 1,228 1,200 (2) 7,269 87.5 5,967 21 39 52 57 32 23 8.4 6.4 5.2 11 9 7 15 23 24 0.4 0.4 0.5 80 50
Indus Towers ADD 238 245 3 642 7.7 2,695 20 22 14 12 11 17 2.4 2.0 2.0 5 4 5 23 20 12 0.5 5.5 3.1 70 31
Vodafone Idea RS 13 — — 626 7.5 48,680 (7) (6) (6) NM NM NM NM NM NM 18 18 20 NM NM NM — — — 95 22
Tata Communications SELL 1,910 1,595 (17) 544 6.6 285 39 52 69 48 37 28 29.5 18.9 12.7 15 12 10 67 62 55 0.8 1.0 1.3 20 9
Telecommunication Services Attractive 9,081 109.4 NM 725.4 142.4 90 60 74 11.4 9.5 8.5 NM 8.3 52 0.4 0.8 0.7 264 111
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ BUY 1,241 1,520 22 2,681 32.3 2,160 43 53 64 29 24 19 5.0 4.2 3.5 19 15 13 19 19 20 0.2 0.3 0.5 79 28
Container Corp. SELL 832 720 (13) 507 6.1 609 21 25 29 39 33 29 4.3 4.1 3.8 24 21 18 11 13 14 1.2 1.4 1.6 23 11
Delhivery BUY 450 570 27 332 4.0 739 (3) 0 2 NM 6,283 185 3.6 3.6 3.4 213 65 38 NM 0 2 — — — 15 9
Gateway Distriparks ADD 98 119 22 49 0.6 500 5 6 7 18 16 13 2.5 2.2 2.0 13 11 9 14 15 16 1.7 1.9 2.1 2 1
GMR Airports SELL 75 62 (18) 455 5.5 6,036 (2) (0) 0 NM NM 376 NM NM NM 27 14 12 NM NM 12 — — — 49 21
Gujarat Pipavav Port REDUCE 192 166 (13) 93 1.1 483 8 10 11 23 19 17 3.8 3.6 3.4 14 12 11 17 19 21 2.9 3.4 3.9 16 6
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 3,233 4,200 30 1,248 15.0 383 185 178 208 17 18 16 149.9 16.2 3.7 6 5 4 NM 161 69 — — — 53 30
JSW Infrastructure SELL 241 190 (21) 506 6.1 2,100 6 7 9 44 32 28 6.4 5.5 19.4 26 21 19 19 18 18 0.2 0.6 0.7 16 8
Mahindra Logistics SELL 415 300 (28) 30 0.4 71 (1) 8 16 NM 51 25 5.4 5.0 4.4 16 11 8 NM 10 18 — — — 2 1
Transportation Attractive 5,899 71.0 32.3 27.0 22.1 6.6 5.4 4.5 15.9 12.5 10.4 20 20 20 0.3 0.4 0.5 255 116
KIE universe 268,574 3,234 24.2 22.2 19.7 3.9 3.5 3.1 14.5 13.3 11.8 15.9 15.6 15.7 1.3 1.4 1.6

Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2024 means calendar year 2023, similarly for 2025 and 2026 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 83.0

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research
33

DISCLAIMERS, DISCLOSURES & LEGAL


Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe

Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional


70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
50%
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40% * The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
31.0% expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% 26.3% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
23.1% 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
19.6% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
20% 12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
-5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% 6.7% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
3.1% 2.4% used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
0.0% of 31/12/2023 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
Research had investment ratings on 255 equity securities.
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities


As of December 31, 2023

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers


Definitions of ratings

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related
to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.

Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the
following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.

Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.

CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.

RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.

NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

India Research
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compliance, or other reasons may prevent us from doing so. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material, may from time to time have "long" or "short"
positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Kotak Securities Limited and its non-US affiliates may, to the extent permissible under applicable laws, have acted on or used
this research to the extent that it relates to non-US issuers, prior to or immediately following its publication. Foreign currency-denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value
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Kotak Securities Limited is a corporate trading and clearing member of BSE Limited (BSE), National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (MSE), National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange
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Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies): No.
We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months.
We or our associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company(ies) or acted as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company/company (ies) discussed herein in the past 12
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We or our associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company(ies) in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation for
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Our associates may have financial interest in the subject company(ies).
Research Analyst or his/her relative's financial interest in the subject company(ies): No
Kotak Securities Limited has financial interest in the subject company(ies) at the end of the week immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: YES. Nature of Financial interest: Holding equity shares or derivatives of the
subject company.
Our associates may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report.
Research Analyst or his/her relatives have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No.
Kotak Securities Limited has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company(ies) at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report: No
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First Cut notes published on this site are for information purposes only. They represent early notations and responses by analysts to recent events. Data in the notes may not have been verified by us and investors should not act upon any
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The analyst(s) authoring this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the subject securities and issuers and that no part of his or her
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report.
This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Firm. Firm Research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form.
Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
Our research should not be considered as an advertisement or advice, professional or otherwise. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return profile and the
like and take professional advice before investing.
Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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returns to investors.
Derivatives are a sophisticated investment device. The investor is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors before actually trading in derivative contracts. Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Hiren Thakkar. Call: 022 - 4285 8484, or
Email: ks.compliance@kotak.com.
Kotak Securities Limited. Registered Office: 27 BKC, C 27, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (E), Mumbai 400051. CIN: U99999MH1994PLC134051, Telephone No.: +22 43360000, Fax No.: +22 67132430. Website: www.kotak.com /
www.kotaksecurities.com. Correspondence Address: Infinity IT Park, Bldg. No 21, Opp. Film City Road, A K Vaidya Marg, Malad (East), Mumbai 400097. Telephone No: 42856825. SEBI Registration No: INZ000200137(Member of NSE, BSE,
MSE, MCX & NCDEX), AMFI ARN 0164, PMS INP000000258 and Research Analyst INH000000586. NSDL/CDSL: IN-DP-629-2021. Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Hiren Thakkar. Call: 022 - 4285 8484, or Email: ks.compliance@kotak.com
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Customer Care/ Complaints Mr. Ritesh Shah Kotak Towers, 8th Floor, Building No.21, Infinity 18002099393 ks.escalation@kotak.com
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Compliance Officer Mr. Hiren Thakkar Mumbai, Maharashtra - 400097 022-42858484 ks.compliance@kotak.com
CEO Mr. Jaideep Hansraj 022-42858301 ceo.ks@kotak.com
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