Concept Note

A Rupturing State: The Shape of Myanmar in Two Years

Background

The February 3, 2021, coup in Myanmar has posed challenges to the country and the Asian
region. While the military battles are in full sway, the military junta faces one uprising after
another. With a declining economy, the regime also appears to be on the decline. The acting
president has warned that the country will be “split into various parts”, while the military
has faced defeat at the hands of militant groups. Meanwhile, two million people have been
displaced, with a million more pouring into neighbouring countries.

Since November last year, the junta has lost control of a number of regions to these fighters,
prominently in Shan State, bordering China. At least three ethnic based groups, the Ta'ang
National Liberation Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Arakan
Army, have coordinated attacks against and routed the military, whose control now seems
to be limited to “urban centres and military barracks.”

The repercussions for Myanmar are clear enough. There appears to be much grassroots
support for these resistance groups. The military’s response to their attacks, including
bombing schools and hospitals, has been criticised worldwide. Such crackdowns, however,
have so far failed to de-escalate tensions. Particularly in areas bordering China and India,
resistance fighters have made considerable gains, and the junta warns that their victories
risk a breakup of the country into different countries, not unlike Yugoslavia after the
collapse of the Soviet Union. These groups have called for the federalization of Myanmar, a
call that underlies the complexities of the world’s longest ongoing civil conflict.
Overview

The research will examine the geopolitical implications of the crisis in Myanmar. India and
China are important players in Myanmar’s foreign policy, and both have responded to the
conflict: China vis-a-vis Shan State, to the East, and India vis-a-vis Chin State, to the West.
Rakhine State, also a hotbed of insurgency, borders Bangladesh.

The social and ethnic compositions in these regions have complicated matters even further.
The Shan people, the largest ethnic minority in Myanmar, share affinities with China, while
the Chin people share ties with Mizoram State in India, and have been supported in their
insurgency by their ethnic kin across the border. Discussions have been raised about the
possibility of a Greater Mizoram. The Modi regime has expressed concerns about insurgent
activities and is on the verge of fencing its border with Myanmar.

South-East Asia, particularly Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia, have also raised concerns about
the situation. The recent ASEAN Summit underlies these issues. The efforts of the recently
appointed Lao diplomat as the ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar have also not brought any
tangible results. The US continues to send assistance to various groups in Myanmar through
the BURMA Act, but it too remains wary of the junta’s actions and China’s and Russia’s links
with the country, though it has so far avoided engaging with miitant groups.

The research will assess these challenges, extrapolating from recent developments in the
politico-military fronts to predict what Myanmar will look like within the next two years and
how the situation will impact the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific.
Myanmar could be seen as a confederation of states, with different ethnic and religious
groups vying for power or some may predict the emergence of independent countries
through breakaway states. Inter and intra fights among militant groups have also become a
feature but their resistance to the Junta is the cardinal dynamic here. Yet once they achieve
their aim of defeating the regime, what will follow for Myanmar?
Objectives

1. Examine briefly the historical evolution of Myanmar’s crisis from 1948, and recent
developments in the aftermath of the 2011 reforms.

2. Assess the ethnic and religious composition of the civil war.

3. Analysis on geopolitical repercussions of the war, focusing on Shan State (China),

Chin State (India), Rakhine State (Bangladesh), and two other states.

4. Predict the political situation of Myanmar within the next two years.
Structure and Framework

Executive Summary

Overview

Will address in brief the geopolitical connotations of the conflict.

Chapter 1: The History of a Conflict

The chapter lays down a historical overview of the conflict, including the failure of the
Myanmar State to look into and address the grievances of its many ethnic groups, including
the Chin, Kachin, and Shan people, and how these grievances erupted into demands for
autonomy in the backdrop of military rule. It will dwell on how the concept of Myanmar was
artificially constructed after independence, and how the political elite of the country failed
to transform that construct into a geographic reality.

The chapter will also evaluate how ethnic grievances were addressed or not addressed
under the 10-year democratic civilian administration of Aung San Suu Kyi, and how the
relapse into military rule in 2021 has resulted in their resurgence.

Chapter 2: The Character of the Myanmar State

The chapter focuses on how the military junta has shaped the Myanmar State, and how its
hold on the country has tightened after the February 2021 coup.

Chapter 3: Geopolitical Repercussions of the Coup

Focusing on the US, Russia, China, and India, the chapter will also explore Japan’s and South
Korea’s stake in ongoing developments in the country. In particular, it will dwell on the
proliferation of online scam operations in Myanmar, China’s response to such operations,
and the jade and the poppy sectors’ impact on the conflict.

It will also dwell on the prospect of a Greater Mizoram along Myanmar’s border with
Manipur, India and China’s BRI designs on Myanmar, including a proposed gas pipeline that
cuts through Rakhine State, one of the biggest conflict hotspots in the country.

Chapter 4: Shan State

Shan State shares a border with China, and the Shan people share ethnic ties with Chinese
people across the border. The chapter will analyse the ethnic, religious, and social
composition of the Shan people and how their activities across the border have impacted
Myanmar’s relations with China, in light of the ongoing conflict.
Chapter 5: Chin State

The chapter will analyse the situation in Chin State. The Chin people share a border with
India, more specifically the Mizoram Province. The possibility of a Greater Mizoram,
inhabited by Chin people sharing common ethnic ties, has been raised. These developments
have compelled India to fence off its border with Myanmar.

Chapter 6: Rakhine State

The Rakhine State is home to the Rohingya people, bordering Bangladesh. The crisis of the
Rohingya people predates the current civil war. Seen as a persecuted minority, they remain
fiercely opposed to the present regime, and have flooded into Bangladesh and Indonesia.
The chapter will assess the situation in Rakhine State and its bearing on Myanmar’s relations
with Bangladesh and Indonesia in the light of the ongoing conflict.

Chapter 7: State A

A yet to be identified State.

Chapter 8: State B

Another yet to be identified State.

Conclusion
Methodology and Material

Literature Research, Online Interviews

Estimated Timelines

Research Phase
February 20 to March 10, 2024

First Draft
March 20, 2024

Second Draft
March 25, 2024

Publication
April 2, 2024

Partners and Roles

Mizzima News
Provide data, ground level information, analytical overviews and sociopolitical analysis,
conduct online interviews. Mizzima will appoint a dedicated researcher to work with the
Factum research team throughout the project.

Factum
Will assess Sino-India geopolitical dynamics in the region, provide analytical frameworks,
conduct the writing, layout.

The report will be a joint publication by Mizzima and Factum.

Estimated Budget

USD 20,000