Civil Engineering May 2022
Binomial Probability Distribution
Features of a binomial experiment:
§ There are fixed number of trials (n).
§ The n trials are independent and repeated under
identical conditions.
§ Each trial has only two outcomes: success (S)
and failure (F)
§ For each individual trial, the probability of
success is the same. The probability of success is
denoted by p and that of failure as q.
§ The central problem of a binomial experiment is
to find the probability of x successes in n trials
Formula for Binomial Probability Distribution:
P(x) = nCx px qn – x
Geometric Distribution
A geometric distribution is a discrete probability
distribution of a random variable x that satisfies the
following conditions:
§ A trial is repeated until a success occurs
§ The repeated trials are independent of each
other
§ The probability of success p is constant for each
trial.
The probability that the first success will occur on
trial number x is
P(x) = qx – 1 p
where q = 1 – p.
Poisson Probability Distribution
Experiments yielding number of outcomes during
a given time interval or in a specified region are
often called Poisson Experiments. The given time
interval may be of any length, such as minute, a
day, a week, a month, or even a year
Conditions to Apply Poisson Probability
Distribution
The following three conditions must be satisfied to
apply Poisson probability distribution:
§ x is a discrete random variable
§ The occurrences are random
§ The occurrences are independent
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The probability of x occurrences in an interval is This probability distribution is closely related to the
x -µ Poisson probability distribution. In the Poisson
µ e
P( x ) = probability distribution, we deal with arrival or
x! occurrence rates per interval, such as, the number
where µ is the mean number of occurrences in that of customers arriving at a bank during half-hour
interval. interval. In exponential probability distribution,
we deal with the lapse of time between any two
Normal Probability Distribution successive occurrences. For instance, we can find
The normal probability distribution is the most the probability that the next customer in the bank
important and widely used of all probability will not arrive for the next 10 minutes.
distributions. When plotted, it gives a bell-shaped
curve such that For the exponential probability distribution with
§ the total area under the curve is 1.0, the mean number of occurrences per unit of time
§ the curve is symmetric about the mean, and equal to λ, where λ is the mean number of
§ the two tails of the curve extend indefinitely. occurrences in that interval,
f(x)
x
a µ b
P(x ≤ a) = P(x<a) = Area to the left of a a b
P(x ≥ a) = P(x>a) = Area to the right of a
P(a ≤ x ≤ b) = P(a < x < b) = Area between a and b P(x ≥ a) = e-λa
P(x ≤ a) = 1 – e-λa
Standard Normal Distribution P(a ≤ x ≤ b) = e-λa – e-λb
PROBLEMS:
1. A pack consists of 20 pieces of candy. In a
thousand packs, 40 contains less than 20 pieces.
x When selecting 3 packs, what is the probability
µ of selecting a pack with less than 20 candies.
Answer: 11.06%
2. A manufacturer estimates that 1.5% of his
output of a small item is defective. Find the
probabilities that in a pack of 200 items:
Q(z2) 2a. none is defective Answer: 0.0487
P(z1)
2b. two are defective Answer: 0.225
R(z2)
z 2c. three or more are defective Answer: 0.5785
z1 0 z2
Exponential Probability Distribution 3. The probability that any given person will
believe a tale about life & death is 0.8. What is
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Civil Engineering May 2022
the probability that the 6th person to hear it is
the 4th one to believe it? Answer: 0.1638
4. Twenty percent of all auto parts manufactured
at a company are defective. Four auto parts are
selected at random. What is the probability that
three of these four auto parts are good?
Answer: 0.4096
4a. The company in the previous problem
shipped 25 auto parts to a dealer. Later it
was found that five of those parts were
defective. By the time the company
manager contacts the dealer, 4 auto parts
from that shipment have already been sold.
What is the probability that three of those
four parts were good? Answer: 0.4506
5. Assume the probability that you will make a
sale on any given telephone call is 0.19. Find the
probability that you
5a. make your first sale on the fifth call.
Answer: 0.0818
5b. make your first sale on the 1st, or 2nd, or 3rd
call. Answer: 0.4686
5c. do not make a sale on the first three calls.
Answer: 0.5314
6. A washing machine in a laundry shop in
Sampaloc breaks down an average of three
times per month. Using the Poisson probability
distribution formula, find the probability that
during the next month this machine will
have…
6a. exactly two breakdowns Answer: 0.224
6b. at most one breakdown Answer: 0.1991
7. The probability that a patient recovers from a
rare blood disease is 0.6. It is known that 100
people have contracted this disease. It is
desired to find the probability that less than
one-half survive. For easier computations,
normal distribution is used to approximate this
binomial distribution. Find the value of the
standard deviation to be used in the
computation. Answer: 4.9
8. The lengths of steel girders produced in factory
are normally distributed with a mean length of
12.5 m and a standard deviation of 2 cm.
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Girders need to be between 12.47 and 12.53
meters to be used in construction. Find the
proportion of girders which cannot be used in
construction. Answer: 13.4%
9. The life span of a calculator manufactured by
Lenovo Corporation has a normal distribution
with a mean of 54 months and a standard
deviation of 8 months. The company
guarantees that any calculator that starts
malfunctioning within 36 months of the
purchase will be replaced by a new one. About
what percentage of such calculators made by
this company are expected to be replaced?
Answer: 1.22%
10. A teller at Metrobank Morayta branch serves,
on an average, 30 customers per hour. Assume
that the service time for a customer has an
exponential probability distribution.
10a. What is the probability that the next
customer will take five minutes or more to
be served? Answer: 0.0821
10b. What is the probability that the next
customer will take two minutes or less to
be served? Answer: 0.6321
10c. What is the probability that the next
customer will take two to four minutes to
be served? Answer: 0.2325
11. The time taken by a terminal fee collector to
collect terminal fees from passengers entering
NAIA is an exponential distribution with a
mean of 23 seconds. What is the probability that
a random passenger will be processed in 25
seconds or more? Answer: 0.337
For Practice:
1. A box contains 5 defective and 195 non-
defective cell phones. A quality control
engineer selects 2 cell phones at random
without replacement. What is the probability
that exactly 1 is defective? Answer: 0.0490
2. A binomial probability distribution involves 60
trials with a probability of failure of 0.26. Find
the standard deviation of this probability
distribution. Answer: 3.4
Algebra 7
3. A box of electronic items contains 16 which
pass international product standards and 4
which do not. If three items are selected at
random from the box, what is the probability
that all three pass international product
standards? Answer: 0.4912
4. A random sample of 15 persons is taken from a
population in which 42% are Muslims. What is
the probability that exactly 6 persons in the
sample are Muslims? Answer: 0.2041
5. A pump has a failure, on the average, once in
every 5,000 hours of operations. What is the
probability that no failure will occur in 10,000
hours of operation? Answer: 0.135
6. IQ scores have a normal distribution with a
mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15.
What two IQs separate the middle 90% from
the remainder of the distribution?
Answer: 75.33 & 124.67
7. Four cards are drawn at random from a deck of
52 cards. What is the probability that all four
are face cards? Answer: 99/54,145
8. Smith and Jones, both 50% marksmen, decide
to fight a duel in which they exchange alternate
shots until one is hit. What are the odds in
favor of the man who shoots first? Answer: 2/3
9. The probabilities that three men hit a target are
1/6, 1/4, and 1/3, respectively. Each shoot
once at the target. If only one of them hits the
target, find the probability that it was the first
man. Answer: 6/31
10. The weight of stone cladding from a large
shipment averages 1.5 kg with a standard
deviation of 0.162 kg. If these weights are
normally distributed, what percent of these
cladding would be expected to weigh between
1.5 kg and 1.8 kg? Answer: 46.8%
11. A family with 5 children is selected at random.
What is the probability that the family has at
least 3 boys? Answer: 1/2
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12. The scores in an examination are normally
distributed with a mean of 48 and a standard
deviation of 8. Approximately what percent of
the scores fall between 40 and 56? Answer: 68%
13. Jerwin is a 70% free throw shooter in basketball.
During the game, what is the probability that
Jerwin makes his third free throw on his fifth
shot? Answer: 0.18522
14. A stationery store has decided to accept a large
shipment of ball-point pens if an inspection of
20 randomly selected pens yields no more than
two defective pens. Find the probability that
this shipment is accepted if 5% of the total
shipment is defective. Answer: 92.45%
15. Studies have shown that 72.5% of apprehended
snatchers in Metro Manila are drug users. In a
random sample of 16 apprehended snatchers,
what is the probability that exactly 10 of them
are drug users? Answer: 0.139
16. Adult IQ scores are normally distributed with
a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15.
Estimate the probability that a randomly
chosen adult has an IQ between 85 and 115.
Answer: 0.68
Situation 1. In an examination, the marks are
normally distributed with mean of 60.7 and a
standard deviation of 12.3.
17. A candidate needs a mark of at least 40 to pass.
What percentage of the candidates fail?
Answer: 4.63%
18. The board awards distinctions to the best 10%
of the candidates. What is the least mark a
candidate will need to get a distinction?
Answer: at least 77
19. The list of passing candidates is published the
day before the list of distinctions. What is the
probability that a candidate who has passed
will have got a distinction? Answer: 10.5%
20. A machine poured melted chocolate into
molds. The standard deviation of the amount
it pours is 0.7 grams and the mean amount can
be set on the machine. The amount poured
may be assumed to follow a normal
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distribution. The machine is to produce bars 30. There are four red, three green and five blue
whose label says 50 g of chocolate. The discs in a bag. Find the probability that two
company’s lawyers want to have no more than discs of the same color are drawn. Answer: 19/66
0.5% of bars containing less than the advertised
weight. What should the mean be set at?
Answer: 51.8 g
21. An airline does a survey of the weights of adult
passengers travelling on its flights. It finds that
5% weigh more than 84.3 kg and 2% weigh less
than 57.2 kg. Assuming that the weights of
adult passengers on its flight are normally
distributed, find the mean and the standard
deviation of the weights. Answer: s = 7.33, µ = 72.25
22. Aedan tries to eat at least five pieces of fruit
each day. The probability that he does is 0.6,
independent of any other day. What is the
probability the Aedan eats at least five pieces of
fruit on more than half the days in a given
week? Answer: 71%
23. If the probability that Aera is late home from
school in any day is 0.4, what is the probability
that she is late home twice in a 5-day school
week? Answer: 0.3456
24. If 25 dice are rolled, find the probability that
three 6s are seen. Answer: 0.193
Situation 2. The number of cars passing a point on
a road during a five-minute period may be
modelled by the Poisson distribution with
parameter 4. Find the probability that in five-
minute period…
25. 2 cars go past. Answer: 0.147
26. fewer than 3 cars go past. Answer: 0.238
Situation 3. The number of accidents in a week on
a stretch of road is known to follow a Poisson
distribution with a parameter 2.1. Find the
probability that:
27. in a given week there is 1 accident. Answer: 0.257
28. in a two-week period, there are 2 accidents.
Answer: 0.132
29. there is 1 accident in each two successive
weeks. Answer: 0.0661
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