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VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS

MEASURING IMPACT OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS


ON STOCK MARKET IN VIETNAM
Nguyen Thi Nhung, Tran Thi Van Anh, Doan Duc Minh
University of Economics and Business - VNU

ABSTRACT

In attempted to provide the first evidence about how investors’ psychology


impacts on trading volume on stock market in Vietnam, this article uses data
of individual stocks listed on the VN30 Index with 21.329 observations during
3 years from January 23, 2017 to December 13, 2019, and regression analysis
on SPSS20 as well as Monte Carlo simulation analysis on JMP. The research
results show that human psychology drives the trading volume more than
the rationality. The hypothesis of rationality losses of significance for trading
volume on Vietnam’s stock market. Psychological factors experience a positive
impact on trading volume. Investors on stock market in Vietnam is the most
effected by the optimism bias. Overconfident and pessimistic investors have
lower influence on trading volume than optimistic ones.

Keywords: Psychological factors, rational investors, optimistic investors,


pessimistic investors, overconfident investors, stock market in Vietnam.

1. INTRODUCTION

Data from Vietnam Securities Depository shows that the number of individual investors’
accounts has an overwhelming proportion on Vietnam’s stock market. As of March
31, 2019, the number of domestic trading accounts reached 2,204,866 accounts, of
which the number of trading accounts of individual investors was 2,195,374 while the
number of accounts held by institutional investors just 9,492 accounts.
Individual investors are mostly amateur people, who have little capital and do not
have time to follow the fluctuations of the market. Therefore, individual investors,
though participating in a large number, have a lower level of portfolio diversification,
smaller scale and transaction volume compared to institutional investors. They often
do not have long-term investment strategies and do not follow specific investment
philosophies, so they are vulnerable and easily affected by many factors.

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For Vietnam, the impact of psychological factors on the market in the past years has
been very complicated, causing negative consequences that threaten macroeconomic
instability and financial security. However, up to now, researches on behavioral finance
of investors and the impact of psychological factors on Vietnam’s stock market are
very few, especially quantitative studies.
Due to that reason, the paper aims to measure the impact of psychological factors on
the stock market in order to propose a number of recommendations for contributing
to the stable and sustainable development of Vietnam’s stock market. Inheriting
the research model of Dhaoui et al. (2013), when studying the impact of investor
psychology on the French stock market, the paper intends to use linear regression on
SPSS20 and Monte Carlo simulation analysis on JMP to achieve the research goals.
The paper consists of 5 parts, of which part 1 is an introduction. Part 2 provides a
literature review on behavioral finance and the main psychological factors affecting
individual investors. Part 3 is methodology. Part 4 presents the empirical results. Part
5 proposes some discussions and conclusions.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Effective market theory is the core of traditional financial models, strategies and
policies (Jasman and Zamri, 2016)). Effective market theory is based on the principle
that all rational behavior has the same purpose of maximizing benefits and that
financial assets are reasonably priced because market information is accurately and
fully reflected in asset prices (Toma, 2015).
However, since the birth and development in the 1960s to present, there has been
a lot of fierce debate about this theory (Ackert and Deaves, 2010; Shefrin, 2007).
Especially now, effective market theory with rational investors no longer exists firmly
because there are big gaps between theory and practice. The decline in efficiency
of traditional financial theories has led to the emergence of a new financial theory
called behavioral finance.
Behavioral finance is the combination of many different sciences such as finance,
psychology, and sociology (Ricciardi and Simon, 2000). From a financial perspective,
behavioral finance uses basic human psychological theories to explain irregularities
in the financial market. According to the definition of Goldberg and Von Nitzsch
(1999), behavioral finance is the theory of financial markets in which individuals act
rationally within a certain framework. Thaler (1999) points out that behavioral finance
is an integration of classical economics and standard financial theory (Thaler, 1999)
and behavioral finance tries to complement standard financial theory through the
inclusion of psychological factors in the decision-making process (Ritter, 2003).
To explain the psychology of investors, we focus on such four main types of
psychological factors as (1) Overconfidence; (2) Conservatism or a psychology of
fear of failure; (3) Herding psychology; (4) Availability bias or Heuristic bias. Each
psychological element has its own specific concepts and manifestations.
Stock Market t = isα0a+state
Overconfidence β1 RatExpectf
in whicht + β2 Optim
people t +to
tend 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃
think they 𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂
are better than 𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡they

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actually are (Trivers, 1991). An overconfident investor often sees himself better
than other investors. He appreciates himself more than others value him and often
exaggerates his own understanding. This behavior may lead overconfident investors
to make trading more frequently than other investors (Wang, 1998; Glaser and
Weber, 2007; Liu and Du, 2016).
When macro or microeconomic conditions change, the conservative investors, who
are afraid of failure, tend to be slow to respond to those changes and they often
associate their views with the overall situation of previous time. That is, when there
is news of the economic downturn, conservative investors think that the weakness
of the economy is only temporary and the economy will continue to go up in the
long term without noticing that this could be the start of a multi-year recession.
However,𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶
when 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 − 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿
the economic 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 has not shown any improvement after a
situation
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 =
period of time, the
𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 conservative
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 − 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿investors
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 will quickly fail to maintain the belief that
the market may recover so they will have extreme reactions. Conservatism according
to Edwards (1968) also makes investors quite conservative in receiving new evidence
that changes their perception.
The herding effect in financial markets is a term that indicates that investors and
fund managers can adopt a risky investment strategy in the market without collecting
sufficient information just because many other investors do so (Bikhchandani and
Sharma, 2000). However, many investors copy the behavior of other investors in an
unreasonable and sometimes completely irrational way (Economou, F., Katsikas, E.,
G. Vickers, 2016), (Bensaïda, 2017), (Kabir, M.,S. Shakur, 2018).
Representativeness biases occur when investors hope that the outcome of a
sequence of events generated by a random process can represent a certainty that
will occur (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). When investors have representativeness
bias, they tend not to pay much attention to long-term factors, but often focus on
short-term situations. In other words, investors with representativeness bias tend to
place too much emphasis on information about current situations, ignoring the need
to use their previous knowledge (Liu and Du, 2016).
In Vietnam, the topic of behavioral psychology of investors has attracted the attention
of some researchers since 2010. The majority of previous researches focus on
factors affecting investment decisions of investors in the Vietnam’s Stock Market
such as the research conducted by University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City in
2013, the study of Khoa Cuong Phan and Jian Zhou (2014) or the research of Pham
Ngoc Toan and Nguyen Thanh Long (2018). In addition, there are a few studies that
systematize theoretical basis or perform general qualitative analysis, which are quite
not detailed about 04 psychological factors (including overconfidence, heuristic bias,
herding behavior and conservatism), such as studies conducted by such authors as
Ngo Thi Xuan Binh (2010), Dang Van Dan (2010), Nguyen Trong Tai (2016), Nguyen
Ngoc Tu Van (2018). The research team found only three quantitative analysis
studies, including those made by Xuan Vinh Vo and Dang Bao Anh Phan (2017)
on herding behavior and by Duc Hien et al. (2012) on deviations in the behavior
of investors in Vietnam’s Stock Market. It can be said that up to the present time,
researches on behavioral finance as well as impact of psychological factors on

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investors and Vietnam’s Stock Market are very little. Particularly, there are few studies
using quantitative methods.

3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. Data
Instead of using data of all listed securities (both on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
and Hanoi Stock Exchange), the research team will focus on stocks in the VN30
basket. In fact, although there are only 30 companies, due to being selected as the
largest companies, VN30 index always covers more than 80% of the total market
capitalization (VN-Index) and 60% of the total transaction value of the whole market.
The VN 30 index was deployed by Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) on February
6, 2012. The composition of VN30 index will be reviewed every 6 months by HOSE’s
advice council in July of the year and January of the following year. The time series
used during the review period are specified after the closing of the last trading
session of June and December.
Thus, in order to serve the purpose of measuring the impact of psychological factors
on Vietnam’s stock market, the study will use secondary data on trading volumes of
30 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity on HOSE from January 23,
2017 to December 13, 2019. So, there are 722 trading days for 30 individual stocks
for each period of six months, making 21.329 observations.

3.2. Research Model


Price and trading volume are two inseparable factors, allowing a comprehensive
reflection of the market. Specifically:
(i) When prices are rising, a low trading volume reflects little of the scarcity of
goods on market;
(ii) When prices are falling, a low trading volume reflects the situation that goods
on the market are underestimated;
(iii) When prices are “fluttering” with small volume of transactions, the market is
frozen;
(iv) When prices “swing” with a large transaction volume, there is a possibility of a
changing trend in the near future but it is difficult to predict.
In other words, the agreement to buy and sell on stock market is reflected not only by
the price balance between supply and demand but also by the volume of successful
matching transactions.
Firstly, the study will measure the impact of psychological factors on the stock market
in terms of trading volume. The research model consists of 4 independent variables
and 01 dependent variable, following below equation:

Where:
Stock Markett is measured by logarithm of trading volume at day t;

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RatExpectfi,t, Optimi,t, Pessimi,t, Overconfi,t respectively represent the stock i’s returns
expected by rational investors, optimistic investor, pessimistic investors and
overconfident investors in the time (t) considering available information in the time
(t-1).
Concerning psychological factors, there are some definitions as bellow:
Rational investors always follow market trend (MT). Bourouis et al (2013) consider MT
as a signal for rational expectation and give a formula measuring as follows:

Investors must be optimistic when individual stock price exceeds the average price
during a given period. Therefore, the variable, which represent the yield expected
by optimist investors at the time of transaction t based on available information on
market at time t-1, is determined as return rate of stock i at time t in case close price
is bigger than average price during the research period.
Investors must be pessimistic when the price decrease under the average level.
Therefore, the variable, which represents the yield expected by pessimist investor
at the time of transaction t based on available information on market at time t-1,
is computed as return rate of stock i at time t in case close price is smaller than
average price during the research period.:
According to Boynton et al (2009) and Ulessever et al (2011), overconfidence effect
is controlled by historical return on trading volume. This effect can be observed using
this relation as follows: In (Trading volumet) = f(Rt-1) with Rt-1 is return on investment
at period t-1. In this research, return on investment at period t-1 is used to measure
overconfidence effects on stock market.
▪ There are 04 hypothesis need to be verified, including
- Hypothesis H1: Rational expectation (RatExpect) has impact on trading volume on
Vietnam’s stock market.
- Hypothesis H2: Optimistic expectation (Optim) has impact on trading volume on
Vietnam’s stock market.
- Hypothesis H3: Pessimistic expectation (Pessim) has impact on trading volume on
Vietnam’s stock market.
- Hypothesis H4: Overconfident expectation (Overconf) has impact on trading volume
on Vietnam’s stock market.
Secondly, the study will evaluate the sensitivity of trading volume (output variable)
to psychological factors of investors (input variables) on stock market in Vietnam by
using Monte Carlo analysis on JMP software. This research will investigate trading
volume sensitivity to all psychological factors as well as trading volume sensitivity to
the couple of input variables.

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4. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
Table 1 shows descriptive statistics about independent variable (Ln(volume)) and
independent vriables (including: RatExpect, Overconf, Optim and Pessim). Table 2
indicates that Sig of Ln(volume) and dependent variables such as RatExpect, Overconf,
Optim and Pessim is always smaller than 0.05. This means that independent variable
and dependent variables have a statistically significant linear relationship (p < 0.01).
They are positively correlated. In other words, the direction of the relationship is
positive, meaning that these variables tend to increase together.
It is clearly seen that Sig of Optim and Overconf and Sig of Optim and Pessim are
0.999 and 0.877, bigger than 0.05. However, collinearity Statistics show that VIF
ratios are always less than 2 [Table 3]. That’s why the study decides to keep these
variables in the next regression analysis.

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics


N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Ln(volume) 21329 7.0 17.7 13.591 1.3834
RatExpect 21329 0.00% 100.00% 49.0141% 34.92673%
Overconf 21329 -70.48% 40.94% 0.0029% 2.20276%
Optim 21329 -41.79% 40.94% 0.0503% 1.57312%
Pessim 21329 -70.48% 7.00% -0.0520% 1.56576%
Valid N (listwise) 21329

Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS

Table 2. Correlations
Ln(volume) RatExpect Overconf Optim Pessim
Pearson Correlation 1 .025 **
.027 **
.036 **
.020**
Ln(volume) Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000 .003
N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329
Pearson Correlation .025 **
1 -.055 **
.405 **
.408**
RatExpect Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000 .000
N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329
Pearson Correlation .027** -.055** 1 .000 .026**
Overconf Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .999 .000
N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329
Pearson Correlation .036 **
.405 **
.000 1 .001
Optim Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .999 .877
N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329
Pearson Correlation .020 **
.408 **
.026 **
.001 1
Pessim Sig. (2-tailed) .003 .000 .000 .877
N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS

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Table 3. Anova & Coefficients


ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Regression 99.915 4 24.979 13.082 .000b
1 Residual 40716.402 21324 1.909
Total 40816.316 21328
a. Dependent Variable: Ln(volume)
b. Predictors: (Constant), Pessim, Optim, Overconf, RatExpect
Coefficientsa
Standard-
Unstandardized Collinearity
ized Coeffi-
Model Coefficients t Sig. Statistics
cients
B Std. Error Beta Tolerance VIF
(Constant) 13.581 .019 720.813 .000
RatExpect .000 .000 .005 .589 .556 .665 1.503
1 Overconf .017 .004 .027 3.913 .000 .993 1.007
Optim .030 .007 .034 4.481 .000 .803 1.246
Pessim .016 .007 .018 2.310 .021 .798 1.253
a. Dependent Variable: Ln(volume)

Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS

Table 3 indicates obviously that Sig of RatExpect is 0.589, more than 0.05. This
means that impact of RatExpect on trading volume is not clear. RatExpect should be
rejected from the research model. Optim has the highest standardized coefficients
beta of 0.036. This shows a very significant impact of optimistic investors on trading
volume on Vietnam’s stock market. The next places are overconfident investors
(0.027) and pessimistic investors (0.20) [Table 4].
The research model can be explained as bellow:
Ln(TV)t = α0 + 0.036 × Optimt + 0.020 × Pessimt + 0.027 × Overconft + 13.590
Table 4. Model Summary & Anova & Coefficients after excluding RatExpect
Model Summaryb
Std. Error Change Statistics
Mod- R Adjusted Durbin-
R of the R Square Sig. F
el Square R Square F Change df1 df2
Estimate Change Change Watson
1 .049a .002 .002 1.3818 .002 17.327 3 21325 .000 .200
a. Predictors: (Constant), Pessim, Optim, Overconf
b. Dependent Variable: Ln(volume)
ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

Regression 99.252 3 33.084 17.327 .000b


1 Residual 40717.064 21325 1.909
Total 40816.316 21328
a. Dependent Variable: Ln(volume)
b. Predictors: (Constant), Pessim, Optim, Overconf

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Coefficientsa
Unstandardized Standardized Collinearity
Model Coefficients Coefficients t Sig. Statistics
Toler-
B Std. Error Beta VIF
ance
(Constant) 13.590 .009 1434.849 .000
Overconf .017 .004 .027 3.878 .000 .999 1.001
1
Optim .032 .006 .036 5.293 .000 1.000 1.000
Pessim .017 .006 .020 2.880 .004 .999 1.001
a. Dependent Variable: Ln(volume)

Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS

Figure 1 shows the sensitivity of trading volume (output variable) to psychological


factors of investors (input variables). It is clearly seen that results are similar to
regression analysis on SPSS that the research mentioned as above. The trading
volume experience the most important sensitivity to optimistic psychology.

Figure 1. Prediction Profiler


Source: Extract from JMP

Figure 2: Volume sensitivity to the couple of input variables (Optimism and Overconfidence;
Pessimism and Overconfidence; Optimism and Pessimism)
Source: Extract from JMP

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Figure 2 indicates the trading volume sensitivity to the couple of input variables.
It is obviously seen that trading volume is positively sensitive to all psychological
factors, including: optimistic factors, overconfident factors and pessimistic factors.
In particular, the presence of optimistic investors experiences the most significant
influence on trading volume. In contrast, the impact of pessimism is less important
than both that of optimism and overconfidence.

5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS


The regression analysis indicates that the hypothesis of rationality losses of significance
for trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market. This result is totally consistent with
what Bourouis et al (2013) confirm in their research about stock market in France. This
means that human psychology drives the trading volume more than the rationality.
The relationship between trading volume and psychological factors are positive.
In addition, it is clearly seen that optimism drives more significantly the evolution
of stock market in Vietnam, than overconfidence and pessimism. This means that
investors on stock market in Vietnam is the most effected by the optimism bias.
In terms of trading volume sensitivity to input variables, the presence of more
optimistic investors influence mor significantly the trading volume than it is the
case for the overconfident and pessimistic investors. And the range of influence of
high overconfidence is larger than that of pessimism. This observation is totally with
conformity to a report given by The Conference Board®Global Consumer Confidence
in 2018. The Vietnamese people are ranked at 4th place among the most optimistic
countries in the World, with Consumer Confidence Index of 122 points, after India,
Philippines and Indonesia.
The research results highlight the most important effect of optimism on trading
volume in Vietnam as well as significant impact of overconfidence and pessimism.
The presence of rational investors doesn’t experience any impact on trading volume
on stock market in Vietnam. This is the first empirical evidences about the impact
of psychological factors on the stock market in Vietnam, contributing to enrich
the existing empirical evidence on influence of investor’s psychology in emerging
countries like Vietnam. The study results are also significant in the context where
Vietnamese individual investors are mostly amateur people, who have little capital
and do not have time to follow the fluctuations of the market and they are vulnerable
and easily affected by many factors. Investors as well as policy makers can refer
these proofs to have more appropriate long-term investment strategies and make
decision on contributing to the stable and sustainable development of Vietnam’s
stock market.
However, it is obviously seen that the research is executed in a short period of
three years and only focus on individual stocks of VN30. Therefore, the research
results cannot fully reflect the total nature of investor’s psychology on Vietnam’s
stock market. There is a need for further follow-up studies with deep analysis, highly
specific recommendations and longer (richer) sample of data as well as different
complicated financial behaviors of investors who are trading in Vietnam Stock Market.

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* Corresponding author.
Email address: oanhntk@isvnu.vn

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